Bear Market Gains

Stocks staggered to small gains Tuesday, as the major indices weighed current conditions versus future expectations, taking strategic positions three days prior to options expiration on Friday.

Trading in narrow ranges, the major indices opened higher, withstood midday selling pressure and gained into the close, complementing two straight days of solid losses with a technical bounce.

Dow 13,232.47 +65.27; NASDAQ 2,596.03 +21.57; S&P 500 1,454.98 +9.08; NYSE Composite 9,602.55 +73.88

Markets were buoyed at the open by news that the European Central Bank (ECB) made $500 billion available to banks in a 16-day funding. While Wall Street may think an additional 1/2 Trillion in cash is a holiday treat, more sober observations declare concern:

"This clearly signifies some worries," said Gabriel Stein, an economist at Lombard Street Research. "They can't keep doing this forever and ever."

What the ECB (and in the background, the US Fed) is attempting is to avoid a major liquidity crisis before the end of the year. Commercial banks have been reluctant to lend to each other, citing one or the other parties financial stability as the rationale.

The general public doesn't know that this banking crisis has been in play since August and likely won't until some big bank rolls over and depositors are stuck dealing with regulators from to government in order to retrieve their funds.

It should be very clear to anyone witnessing this unfolding financial drama that serious bank failures are only one bad loan or misguided investment away. Unfortunately, our news media keeps the lid on serious news such as banking problems in order to avoid a "panic" in the general population.

For their parts, Wall Street and the foreign exchanges have put on their best smiles in spite of it all, but there's an undercurrent of thought that an economic calamity is not just possible, but likely inevitable. Repeated liquidity injections and interest rate cuts by central banks have yet to solve the burning banking questions: Who is vulnerable and when will they fail to meet obligations?

Stocks, the amusing side-show for now, showed some resilience, with advancing issues holding sway over decliners, 3819-2429. New lows continued to outdistance new highs by a wide margin, 725-71. The indications are such that stocks will remain rangebound with a negative bias.

Oil closed slightly lower, down 14 cents to $90.49, while gold gained $8.10 to close at $807.40 and silver ended at $14.17, up 19 cents.

CNN/Money reports that US demand for gas has fallen in five of the last seven weeks, begging the question of how long high fuel prices can be maintained.

As mentioned in this blog ad nauseum the concern that high fuel prices could push the economy into a recession may be coming to fruition. As consumers feel the pinch at the pump crimping their lifestyle, changes in spending habits are inevitable. Smaller cars, shorter trips and environmentally-sensible measures should begin to take hold, though it's probably already too late to avoid some mid-course disruptions.

NYSE Volume 3,723,687,000
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Stocks on Sale: Dow Sinks Another 172 points

After reaching an interim peak just a week ago at 13,727.03, the Dow has dropped back into a trading range between 12,950 and 13,300 which may prove to be the area in which the index closes for the year. Unless there's some dramatic news - positive or negative - or a lot more tax-related selling to be done before putting the wraps on 2007, there's little to move the markets, though the unrelenting selling pressure could yet take a few more bites and turn the year into an overall loser for all the major indices.

With those caveats firmly in hand, Monday's trade was no doubt a continuation of the selling that commenced in the latter part of last week. Apparently, investors are not through dumping stocks, and while the poor condition of the economy becomes clearer each trading day, there isn't much passion in buyer's eyes.

Dow 13,167.20 -172.65; NASDAQ 2,574.46 -61.28; S&P 500 1,445.90 -22.05; NYSE Composite 9,528.67 Down 169.70

The majors are all close to break-even for the year, based on closing prices December 29, 2006. On that date, the S&P stood at 1418.30; the Dow was 12,463.15; the NASDAQ was 2415.29 and the NYSE Comp. was 9.139.02. Clearly, whatever gains the markets made in 2007 were marginal, ranging between less than 3% (S&P) and just about 7% (NASDAQ).

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Internal indicators showed a somewhat heavier bearish bias than previously. Decliners held a substantial edge over advancing issues, 5163-1233, a better than 4-1 edge, and among the largest margins seen this year. New lows continued to widen their gap over new highs as well, expanding to a 718-74 advantage, also a figure well outside any "average" range. More downsliding is to be expected in coming days.

What's of particular concern at this juncture are two factors: 1. On Friday and again on Monday, not a single industry sector showed a gain; and 2. The Dow is less than 400 points away from the 2007 lows, reached just last month.

Further, the Fed has few weapons left in its arsenal not already deployed to stave off further declines, so the market must fend for itself, seemingly, for the remaining nine trading days of the year.

Commodity prices barely budged, with oil slightly lower, gold inching up and silver unchanged.

NYSE Volume 3,526,140,750
NASDAQ Volume 1,932,222,875

Friday's Stocks: All Red, All Day

As I pointed out yesterday, stocks were set up for a week-ending dive and the major indices took little time confirming my prediction, as all traded lower from the very first minute of trading. What made Friday even more interesting is that all the major indices spent all day in the red, with the exception of the NASDAQ, which spent a few moments above water, but it was a very short-lived peek at the positive side of the ledger.

What set the markets in motion was the CPI figures released prior to the bell. It wasn't difficult to predict the direction of the index, fast on the heels of the most-inflationary reading for the PPI in 35 years, on Thursday. The CPI was up 0.8%, topping even the dire expectations of 0.6. It was the highest one-month increase since the post-Katrina reading in September 2005.

We have inflation. We have a significant slump in housing. We have a Fed that lowered federal funds rates three times consecutively and an investor class that doesn't think it's enough. What we really have are all the ingredients for a good, old-fashioned bear market.

Dow 13,339.85 -178.11; NASDAQ 2,635.74 -32.75; S&P 500 1,467.95 -20.46; NYSE Composite 9,698.37 -165.91

Consumers may hold up through the holidays, but after that, with the home equity ATM shut off, banks tightening lending standards and a worldwide liquidity crisis, it's nearly a sure bet that stocks will head in the direction opposite to what most investors would like.

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The process has already begun and it's gaining momentum. There's a double bottom in place, but the levels reached in August and November on all the indices will likely be tested and broken through to the downside in the first quarter of 2008. The catalyst will be earnings, already expected to be the kind that signal weakness in almost every sector.

If you haven't already, now would be a good time to shift a sizable portion of your portfolio into cash, gold, silver, and bonds, or a defensive fund, or a combination of all of them, or maybe move to another country with better growth prospects.

Market internal indicators were expectedly bearish: Declining issues trounced advancers, 4806-1501. New lows expanded their edge over new highs, 493-109. Metrics such as these are hardly useful on a day like Friday. They just add to the string of similar readings, confirming the trend.

Commodities fell in unison. Oil shed 98 cents to close at $91.87. Gold was off $6.00 to $798.00; silver was down 0.25 to %13.98. (Hmmm... just in time for Christmas... 1 oz. silver dollars make great stocking stuffers. I'd love a stocking full of them.)

With a huge snowstorm expected to hit most of the Northeast on Sunday, holiday sales may be crimped on what should have been one of the busiest shopping days of the year in major cities such as Boston, Philadelphia, New York, Washington and Baltimore. The storm is already wending its way through the Midwest.

While the foul weather may be bad for brick and mortar businesses, internet sales should soar. Amazon, anybody?

NYSE Volume 3,401,047,750
NASDAQ Volume 1,954,963,625

Stocks Set Up for Week-ending Swoon

A late-session surge brought the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 into positive territory, but the NASDAQ and NYSE Composite suffered through another day of negative returns.

Leading the news, alarming inflation figures released by the Commerce Department, showed prices at the wholesale prices leaping 3.2% in November, their biggest increase since 1973.

Flashing back to the mid-70s, a period of double digit inflation and gas rationing, we can clearly see where the economy is heading. In response to inflation, interest rates ratcheted upward into double digits. A typical home loan was set at 12-14% interest.

Back in the day, the Fed acted nearly-responsibly, hiking interest rates to wring the inflation out of the economy. It was a painful time for American businesses, typified by stagnant growth and high inflation, a condition which became known as stagflation

Dow 13,517.96 +44.06; NASDAQ 2,668.49 -2.65; S&P 500 1,488.41 +1.82; NYSE Composite 9,864.28 -57.36

Today's environment is profoundly different. Our capricious Federal Reserve has more interest in keeping stock prices buoyant than fighting higher prices for consumers and is intent on keeping banks from defaulting completely as they wade waist deep through the most severe credit crisis since the Great Depression.

This is 21st century America, after all, where savings don't matter and the immediacy of satisfaction and the quick buck are front and center. Today's news merely amplifies the already-shaky condition of the US economy and US stocks. Today's trade was nothing more than a tune-up for a week-ending swan dive.

As the day wound on, the NYSE Composite, where the real action exists, was off by more than 170 points during the grueling session as all indices spent most of the day in the red.

Friday will likely see a continuation of the downdraft that has taken hold of the markets in various guises since August.

For indications, there were nearly two stocks losing ground for every gainer, as decliners beat advancers, 4012-2304. Further proof of the continuation of the bearish trend came from the disparity in new highs and new lows. The lows checked in at 407, to a mere 96 new highs. This particular indicator has favored the new lows for nearly a month and a half, with new highs on top in only two sessions last week.

As if frightened by the prospect of high prices and world economic disembowelment, major commodities sold off. Oil dropped $2.14 to $92.25. Gold tumbled $14.80 to $804.00 and silver lost a whopping 59 cents to mark at $14.24.

Here we are at the height of the Christmas shopping season with high gasoline prices, wickedly higher wholesale prices, a Federal Reserve running ruination on the dollar and a forecast of weaker corporate profits for at least the next three quarters. It's beginning to look a lot like... no, not Christmas, but recession.

NYSE Volume 3,530,155,750
NASDAQ Volume 2,100,678,250

Fed Reinforces Boom-Bust Market Mentality

Following Tuesday's 25 basis point cut by the Fed, Ben Bernanke and his blundering buddies hooked up with the central banks of Canada, Switzerland and England and the European Central Bank (ECB) and overnight hatched a plan to provide more liquidity to shaky US markets.

The Fed said it plans to inject cash to banks through auctions and provide $24 billion in currency swap lines.

It's important to note that the move came one day after the markets tumbled upon hearing that the Fed was cutting the federal funds rate. The move amounts to just so much pandering, but also points up just how precarious the straits US banks are currently traversing.

Dow 13,473.90 +41.13 ; NASDAQ 2,671.14 +18.79; S&P 500 1,486.59 +8.94; NYSE Composite 9,921.64 +83.38

Investors took their cue at the open, pumping stocks to their highs of the day in the first ten minutes of trading. From that point onward, however, the full import of the Fed's actions took hold and stocks sold off until finally capitulating just after 3:00, when all indices turned negative.

It was only a last half-hour rally that pushed stocks back into positive territory at the close. The trade of the past two days was a massive repudiation of Fed policy. There's little, if anything, the Fed can do to keep stocks from selling off over the remaining 12 days of trading this year.

The Federal Reserve under Ben Bernanke has been buffeted about by the winds and whims of the market, reacting to stock and index prices rather than imposing sound monetary policy. The more they cajole, push, pimp and pump the market with liquidity and various rate cuts and market maneuvers, the more the market barks back, always wanting more.

This give-and-take has reintroduced extreme levels of anxiety and volatility to already nervous markets. The depths of the credit crisis, which has spread from the US to the rest of the world, have yet to be plumbed and the Federal Reserve, along with the rest of the central banks, stand gaping into the abyss of complete financial meltdown.

What has always been at the heart of the matter is easy credit, even though former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan denies his "emergency" 1% rate in 2003 led to the bubble in housing prices and the attendant low-interest loans made to buyers of questionable creditworthiness, and what the Fed is doing is simply doling out more dollars on easier terms to even more banks.

If the credit crunch was caused by easy credit, how is extending even more easy credit to the worst offenders - abusive and largely unregulated banks - going to solve the problem?

Maybe the Fed and all those white guys in dark suits at central banks around the world know better. Probably not. They're likely just hanging on by threads and ego, hoping the entire derivative-driven, fiat money house of cards doesn't collapse entirely.

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As for investments in US stocks, one had better get out the butter, because they're toast. Advancing issues beat back decliners narrowly on Tuesday, 3468-2903. New lows widened their spread over new highs, 307-127.

Silver was marginally lower, oil and gold were higher, with crude up over $4 per barrel to close at $94.39, following what looked like a healthy pullback over the past few weeks. Now, it appears the relatively inexpensive crude that was expected for the holidays will not arrive at the pre-arranged time, though savvy motorists may be able to fill up prior to the expected holiday gouging to save a bit. After that, it's back to prices of $3.25+ for everybody.

It's becoming increasingly clear that we are in the early throes of a bear market, that a recession is unlikely to be avoided in 2008, and that whatever the Fed does to affect monetary policy isn't working. Further, banks and other quasi-financial institutions are in serious trouble. Somebody other than a Federal Reserve governor needs to speak to the overall risk involved to the US population and spell out exactly what lies ahead. Since the chances of that happening are stuck right between slim and none, the US citizenry is left to ponder the wisdom and righteousness of commentators such as James Cramer, Neil Cavuto and their witless ilk.

As others have said so eloquently before, "we're doomed!"

NYSE Volume 4,394,799,500
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