Words cannot express...
Monday Mayhem:
S&P 500: 2,137.16, +7.26 (0.34%)
Dow 30: 18,226.93, +80.19 (0.44%)
NASDAQ: 4,988.64, +31.88 (0.64%)
Monday, July 11, 2016
Sunday, July 10, 2016
SPX Near All-Time Highs On June Jobs Euphoria
On May 20, 2015, the S&P 500 index (SPX) reached an all-time intra-day high of 2,134.72. The following session, May 21, it set a closing record at 2,130.82.
This Friday, the S&P closed at 2,190.90, settling off the day's high of 2,131.71, so, no records were set in the first full trading week of July (when nobody's paying particular attention), but the major indices are now poised to run beyond their previous highs, set more than a year ago.
Thus, the banking and global finance cartel - which is in complete and unbreakable control of all "trading" markets - has waived any consideration that the third-longest equity bull market in the history of US stock markets was coming to an end.
Bears, those sadly depressed members of the pessimism society (this blog included) are never going to be satisfied it seems. Drops on the major indices of 10% or more (corrections) are not tolerated. 20% declines - bear markets by definition - are not open for discussion within the megalithic construct of global central bank monetarism.
Expect new all-time highs on the S&P promptly Monday morning, with the Dow soon to follow (all time highs of 18,351.36 intra-day and 18,312.39 closing, both on May 19, 2015). The NASDAQ has a bit further to travel, having made its all-time closing high of 5,153.97 on June 22, 2015, reaching its zenith two days later with an intra-day value of 5,164.36.
Whether these prices and averages are justified by fundamental measures of valuation is debatable. By many measures stocks are overpriced. The trading prices of some of the more popular stocks - especially those focused in the technology area (Facebook, Google, Amazon, Apple to name a few) - currently trade at nose-bleed valuations.
According to the financial press, what prompted the sudden jerk higher of US stock markets was Friday's non-farm payroll figures from June.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said non-farm payrolls rose to a seasonally adjusted 287K, from 11K in May, that figure revised lower, from 38K.
Analysts had expected U.S. non-farm payrolls to rise 175K last month, so the surprise factor was enormous. Muddying the waters beyond the mystifying May numbers as compared to June - the largest net gain in eight months, is that the BLS numbers are largely massaged, maneuvered, and mangled into whatever pretzel-logical outcome is desired at the moment.
In a word, the BLS numbers are untrustworthy.
David Rosenberg suggests that the month of June did not in fact show a massive gain, but employment actually declined by 119,000 during the month.
Here is another article (from February 2016) that breaks down the faulty, misleading methodology employed by the BLS.
David Stockman opines that the monthly BLS survey is mostly noise and needs to be veiwed over longer periods in order to offer convincing trends and that the May and June tallies, taken together, amount to nothing more than statistical numbness.
Effectively, the BLS survey figures move markets as the algos respond entirely to the headlines, which were out-of-the-park awesome in June. The details were more nuanced, but such does not have influence on stocks.
In any case, since, the Brexit vote, central banks and central planners have returned in force to control the narrative, which, in their view, must continue to be nothing but positive.
For an alternative view, look at the response of gold, silver and especially, government bonds, the 10-year note and 30-year bond in particular, both of which continued to make all-time lows this week.
For the week:
Dow: +197.37 (+1.10%)
S&P 500: +26.95 (+1.28%)
NASDAQ: +94.19 (+1.94%)
Friday's Fantasy:
S&P 500: 2,129.90, +32.00 (1.53%)
Dow: 18,146.74, +250.86 (1.40%)
NASDAQ: 4,956.76, +79.95 (1.64%)
Crude Oil 45.12 -0.04% Gold 1,367.40 +0.39% EUR/USD 1.1051 -0.09% 10-Yr Bond 1.37 -1.51% Corn 361.25 +3.66% Copper 2.12 +0.02% Silver 20.35 +2.58% Natural Gas 2.82 +1.44% Russell 2000 1,177.36 +2.40% VIX 13.20 -10.57% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.2952 +0.30% USD/JPY 100.4600 -0.27%
This Friday, the S&P closed at 2,190.90, settling off the day's high of 2,131.71, so, no records were set in the first full trading week of July (when nobody's paying particular attention), but the major indices are now poised to run beyond their previous highs, set more than a year ago.
Thus, the banking and global finance cartel - which is in complete and unbreakable control of all "trading" markets - has waived any consideration that the third-longest equity bull market in the history of US stock markets was coming to an end.
Bears, those sadly depressed members of the pessimism society (this blog included) are never going to be satisfied it seems. Drops on the major indices of 10% or more (corrections) are not tolerated. 20% declines - bear markets by definition - are not open for discussion within the megalithic construct of global central bank monetarism.
Expect new all-time highs on the S&P promptly Monday morning, with the Dow soon to follow (all time highs of 18,351.36 intra-day and 18,312.39 closing, both on May 19, 2015). The NASDAQ has a bit further to travel, having made its all-time closing high of 5,153.97 on June 22, 2015, reaching its zenith two days later with an intra-day value of 5,164.36.
Whether these prices and averages are justified by fundamental measures of valuation is debatable. By many measures stocks are overpriced. The trading prices of some of the more popular stocks - especially those focused in the technology area (Facebook, Google, Amazon, Apple to name a few) - currently trade at nose-bleed valuations.
According to the financial press, what prompted the sudden jerk higher of US stock markets was Friday's non-farm payroll figures from June.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said non-farm payrolls rose to a seasonally adjusted 287K, from 11K in May, that figure revised lower, from 38K.
Analysts had expected U.S. non-farm payrolls to rise 175K last month, so the surprise factor was enormous. Muddying the waters beyond the mystifying May numbers as compared to June - the largest net gain in eight months, is that the BLS numbers are largely massaged, maneuvered, and mangled into whatever pretzel-logical outcome is desired at the moment.
In a word, the BLS numbers are untrustworthy.
David Rosenberg suggests that the month of June did not in fact show a massive gain, but employment actually declined by 119,000 during the month.
When the Household survey is put on the same comparable footing as the payroll series (the payroll and population-concept adjusted number), employment fell 119,000 in June — again calling into question the veracity of the actual payroll report — and is down 517,000 through this span. The six-month trend has dipped below the zero-line and this has happened but two other times during this seven-year expansion.
Here is another article (from February 2016) that breaks down the faulty, misleading methodology employed by the BLS.
David Stockman opines that the monthly BLS survey is mostly noise and needs to be veiwed over longer periods in order to offer convincing trends and that the May and June tallies, taken together, amount to nothing more than statistical numbness.
Effectively, the BLS survey figures move markets as the algos respond entirely to the headlines, which were out-of-the-park awesome in June. The details were more nuanced, but such does not have influence on stocks.
In any case, since, the Brexit vote, central banks and central planners have returned in force to control the narrative, which, in their view, must continue to be nothing but positive.
For an alternative view, look at the response of gold, silver and especially, government bonds, the 10-year note and 30-year bond in particular, both of which continued to make all-time lows this week.
For the week:
Dow: +197.37 (+1.10%)
S&P 500: +26.95 (+1.28%)
NASDAQ: +94.19 (+1.94%)
Friday's Fantasy:
S&P 500: 2,129.90, +32.00 (1.53%)
Dow: 18,146.74, +250.86 (1.40%)
NASDAQ: 4,956.76, +79.95 (1.64%)
Crude Oil 45.12 -0.04% Gold 1,367.40 +0.39% EUR/USD 1.1051 -0.09% 10-Yr Bond 1.37 -1.51% Corn 361.25 +3.66% Copper 2.12 +0.02% Silver 20.35 +2.58% Natural Gas 2.82 +1.44% Russell 2000 1,177.36 +2.40% VIX 13.20 -10.57% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.2952 +0.30% USD/JPY 100.4600 -0.27%
Thursday, July 7, 2016
Banker Cartel Exercising Control Post-Brexit
Editor's Note: Summer is in full swing, and publisher, Fearless Rick, is busy working on his tan, among other various duties, so Money Daily may not be quite so daily for the next six to eight weeks. We urge all readers to get out and enjoy the good weather.
Markets have calmed considerably since the craziness of the past two weeks. Over the past two trading sessions (Wednesday and Thursday), US exchanges were very slightly elevated, but still stuck in the range they've been assigned by the banking cartel since mid-March.
Friday's non-farm payroll report for June is due out at 8:30 am EDT, though it will likely have little effect on trading as Wall Street generally slumbers through summer.
Gold and silver received their usual smack-downs, but there's little doubt that more and more people are looking for safety in precious metals and other non-financial assets.
Thursday's Tremblings:
S&P 500: 2,097.90, -1.83 (0.09%)
Dow: 17,895.88, -22.74 (0.13%)
NASDAQ: 4,876.81, +17.65 (0.36%)
Crude Oil 45.19 -4.72% Gold 1,361.00 -0.45% EUR/USD 1.1064 -0.27% 10-Yr Bond 1.39 +0.14% Corn 348.50 +0.07% Copper 2.12 -1.44% Silver 19.72 -2.39% Natural Gas 2.76 -0.83% Russell 2000 1,149.76 +0.21% VIX 14.76 -1.34% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.2910 -0.13% USD/JPY 100.7710 -0.60%
Markets have calmed considerably since the craziness of the past two weeks. Over the past two trading sessions (Wednesday and Thursday), US exchanges were very slightly elevated, but still stuck in the range they've been assigned by the banking cartel since mid-March.
Friday's non-farm payroll report for June is due out at 8:30 am EDT, though it will likely have little effect on trading as Wall Street generally slumbers through summer.
Gold and silver received their usual smack-downs, but there's little doubt that more and more people are looking for safety in precious metals and other non-financial assets.
Thursday's Tremblings:
S&P 500: 2,097.90, -1.83 (0.09%)
Dow: 17,895.88, -22.74 (0.13%)
NASDAQ: 4,876.81, +17.65 (0.36%)
Crude Oil 45.19 -4.72% Gold 1,361.00 -0.45% EUR/USD 1.1064 -0.27% 10-Yr Bond 1.39 +0.14% Corn 348.50 +0.07% Copper 2.12 -1.44% Silver 19.72 -2.39% Natural Gas 2.76 -0.83% Russell 2000 1,149.76 +0.21% VIX 14.76 -1.34% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.2910 -0.13% USD/JPY 100.7710 -0.60%
Tuesday, July 5, 2016
Markets Becoming More Volatile By The Day; Italian Banks, British Real Estate Hit Hard
It's getting a little scary out there in finance-land.
Following the epic exercise in individual democracy in Great Britain, the world's elitist bankers and political forces have been scampering from one impaired asset class to another, the latest and most prominent being Italian banks and British Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs).
Since Monday, three separate REITs in Britain have shut down redemptions in the wake of panicked outflows since the Brexit vote.
As for the Italian banking sector (recall that Mario Draghi, current head of the ECB, mismanaged most of Italy's financial escapades a decade ago), FUGGEDABOUTIT!
Just today, short-selling was banned in shares of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Italy's third-largest bank. Other banks in Italy are in crisis mode, with a huge amount of non-performing loans hanging over a weakening economic picture.
Here in the new world, stocks were slammed as investors suddenly noticed that the major indices were once again closing in on all-time highs. Realizing that the fundamentals didn't support such extreme valuations, it was risk off all day, with the three biggies spending the entire session in the red.
Silver continued its impressive run, closing at 19.91 in New York (where the manipulation occurs, though lately isn't working), but gunning up as trading opened in the Far East.
Here are the results, suckers:
S&P 500: 2,088.55, -14.40 (0.68%)
Dow: 17,840.62, -108.75 (0.61%)
NASDAQ: 4,822.90, -39.67 (0.82%)
Crude Oil 46.65 +0.11% Gold 1,364.10 +0.40% EUR/USD 1.1061 -0.05% 10-Yr Bond 1.37 -6.11% Corn 356.75 -0.35% Copper 2.18 -0.21% Silver 20.28 +1.87% Natural Gas 2.78 +0.43% Russell 2000 1,139.45 -1.50% VIX 15.58 +5.48% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.2961 -0.45% USD/JPY 101.1910 -0.51%
Following the epic exercise in individual democracy in Great Britain, the world's elitist bankers and political forces have been scampering from one impaired asset class to another, the latest and most prominent being Italian banks and British Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs).
Since Monday, three separate REITs in Britain have shut down redemptions in the wake of panicked outflows since the Brexit vote.
On Tuesday, Standard Life and Aviva both halted redemptions in their U.K.-focused property funds, which are pooled investments that hold real estate, similar to a REIT. Later in the day, M&G Investments joined them.
As for the Italian banking sector (recall that Mario Draghi, current head of the ECB, mismanaged most of Italy's financial escapades a decade ago), FUGGEDABOUTIT!
Just today, short-selling was banned in shares of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Italy's third-largest bank. Other banks in Italy are in crisis mode, with a huge amount of non-performing loans hanging over a weakening economic picture.
Here in the new world, stocks were slammed as investors suddenly noticed that the major indices were once again closing in on all-time highs. Realizing that the fundamentals didn't support such extreme valuations, it was risk off all day, with the three biggies spending the entire session in the red.
Silver continued its impressive run, closing at 19.91 in New York (where the manipulation occurs, though lately isn't working), but gunning up as trading opened in the Far East.
Here are the results, suckers:
S&P 500: 2,088.55, -14.40 (0.68%)
Dow: 17,840.62, -108.75 (0.61%)
NASDAQ: 4,822.90, -39.67 (0.82%)
Crude Oil 46.65 +0.11% Gold 1,364.10 +0.40% EUR/USD 1.1061 -0.05% 10-Yr Bond 1.37 -6.11% Corn 356.75 -0.35% Copper 2.18 -0.21% Silver 20.28 +1.87% Natural Gas 2.78 +0.43% Russell 2000 1,139.45 -1.50% VIX 15.58 +5.48% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.2961 -0.45% USD/JPY 101.1910 -0.51%
Brexit Losses Erased; SIlver Soars To Near $20 Per Ounce
From Friday, July 1:
U.S. Treasuries advanced accompanied by a stimulus-fueled rally in European debt that pressured regional yields to new record lows. Treasuries were not far behind with demand pressuring the 30-yr yield to a fresh record low of 2.189% while the 10-yr yield hit 1.382%, pausing just above an all-time low of 1.381% that was notched four years ago. The 2-yr note posted a slight loss while the 5-yr note ended flat.
Silver closed in NY at 19.75 (+11.25% - best week since Aug 2013).
For the Week Ended 7/1:
Dow: +548.62 (+3.15%)
S&P 500: +65.54 (+3.22%)
NASDAQ: +154.59 (+3.25%)
Friday's Results:
S&P 500: 2,102.95, +4.09 (0.19%)
Dow: 17,949.37, +19.38 (0.11%)
NASDAQ: 4,862.57, +19.89 (0.41%)
Crude Oil 49.28 +1.97% Gold 1,344.90 +1.84% EUR/USD 1.1135 +0.35% 10-Yr Bond 1.46 -2.15% Corn 368.00 -0.88% Copper 2.22 +1.18% Silver 19.85 +6.62% Natural Gas 2.99 +2.12% Russell 2000 1,156.77 +0.42% VIX 14.77 -5.50% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.3269 -0.10% USD/JPY 102.5180 -0.80%
U.S. Treasuries advanced accompanied by a stimulus-fueled rally in European debt that pressured regional yields to new record lows. Treasuries were not far behind with demand pressuring the 30-yr yield to a fresh record low of 2.189% while the 10-yr yield hit 1.382%, pausing just above an all-time low of 1.381% that was notched four years ago. The 2-yr note posted a slight loss while the 5-yr note ended flat.
Silver closed in NY at 19.75 (+11.25% - best week since Aug 2013).
For the Week Ended 7/1:
Dow: +548.62 (+3.15%)
S&P 500: +65.54 (+3.22%)
NASDAQ: +154.59 (+3.25%)
Friday's Results:
S&P 500: 2,102.95, +4.09 (0.19%)
Dow: 17,949.37, +19.38 (0.11%)
NASDAQ: 4,862.57, +19.89 (0.41%)
Crude Oil 49.28 +1.97% Gold 1,344.90 +1.84% EUR/USD 1.1135 +0.35% 10-Yr Bond 1.46 -2.15% Corn 368.00 -0.88% Copper 2.22 +1.18% Silver 19.85 +6.62% Natural Gas 2.99 +2.12% Russell 2000 1,156.77 +0.42% VIX 14.77 -5.50% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.3269 -0.10% USD/JPY 102.5180 -0.80%
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