As outlined in yesterday's post, US stock indices have been down since the beginning of August, presaging to the positive for the challenger party in the presidential election race.
While the outcome of a Trump victory is far from certain, what is clear is that traders and speculators are taking note of the fragile condition of the US and global economies, both of which have been side-stepping into the future since the crash of 2008-09.
Markets function largely on faith and hope, despair and confusion, greed and fear, and there seems to be ample supplies of all emotions all around. Puzzling analysts is how exactly a Clinton presidency would benefit markets, if only to keep the controlling interests in charge for another four years.
That may not be the best of circumstances, as Mr. Trump points out, because the global condition is quite completely on edge politically and likely over the edge financially. Nation-states are overburdened in debt, which has found its way back to the minions, a cause for unrest and potentially explosive social events.
With all that in the marco view, US companies, in the midst of third quarter earnings season, are, as has been the case for the past three years, struggling to find profits and any reason to be upbeat for the remainder of 2016 and into 2017.
There seems to be a dull thud re-occurring in the offices of CFOs and CEOs, that being the repeating sound of falling EPS and missed revenue figures, a double whammy for investors, though not many have fled the market as of this writing.
Thursday represents perhaps the biggest day of earnings season. Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon.com (AMZN), LinkedIn (LNKD) and Baidu (BIDU) are among companies set to report after the bell. Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Bristol-Meyers Squibb (BMY), Ford (F) and UPS (UPS) all report prior to the opening bell.
These results and some economic data (durable goods, pending home sales) will shape the day's trading. With just two days left in October, there's a slim chance that markets could rally back to positive for the past three months, which would be a good omen for the Hillary camp, but it is unlikely to happen unless some major news breaks that would spur a buying panic. It's happened before, but expect more oddities prior to election day next week.
Wednesday's Final Score:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,199.33, +30.06 (0.17%)
NASDAQ
5,250.27, -33.13 (-0.63%)
S&P 500
2,139.43, -3.73 (-0.17%)
NYSE Composite
10,528.19, -22.00 (-0.21%)
Thursday, October 27, 2016
Wednesday, October 26, 2016
Stocks Predict The Next President Should Be Trump
Wall Street people pride themselves largely upon their particular abilities, especially those who use other people's money (OPM) to wager, gamble, or speculate on investments.
They brag, they boast, some of them actually tell the truth from time to time about their overall performance in the markets, whether their specialty be in stocks, bonds, commodities, or currencies.
Claims by some that they have peculiar, timely, or otherwise savvy insights into the future - akin to soothsayers, fortune tellers and gypsy tarot card readers - are, as time goes by, either validated or proven worthless. A spotty track record is by no means a cause for shame or contrition. Rather, these various prognosticators continue to spew pablum, intending to coerce a generally ill-informed public that their positions are the ones that matter.
As the time until the general election dwindles to under two weeks, one thing the Wall Street elite have not - by and large - weighed in upon is the result of the presidential sweepstakes. That's probably for good reason. Like 95% of the general public, they aren't convinced of an outcome either in favor of Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton, but, few have expressed their sentiments on what will happen after either is elected.
While there are those who say that the stock market will take a hit if Donald Trump is the next president, few, if any, figure that a Clinton win would be bad for investors. Oddly enough, almost nobody is saying the stock market will roar whichever candidate wins.
That's a perspective that is based largely on stock market returns and historical fact. According to this CNN story, since 1944, the direction of the stock market between August 1 and October 31 has correctly predicted the outcome of the election a stunning 82% of the time.
The metric is startlingly simple. If the market is up during the three months prior to the election, the incumbent party wins. If the market is down, the challenger is swept into office.
As of this writing, that measure favors Donald J. Trump, the challenger, but only slightly. On July 29, the final trading day prior to August 1, the S&P 500 stood at 2,173.60. It closed on Tuesday at 2143.16, about 1 1/2 percent off during the span.
There are three trading days left in the predicted period. It's possible that a strong rally could lift the averages back above the August 1 level, though it is beginning to appear more gloomy for Mrs. Clinton, the more the media bashes Trump and ignores the continuous, outrageous, potentially criminal behavior of the former First Lady and Secretary of State.
With the markets set to open in about a half hour, futures are lower. If this trend continues, get ready for a Trump presidency and the ascendancy of a moralistic, populist, business-first new regime in Washington.
Change at the top and across the political spectrum would likely be a boon to the majority of working Americans. After all, they're the ones that really matter, right?
Tuesday Trauma:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,169.27, -53.76 (-0.30%)
NASDAQ
5,283.40, -26.43 (-0.50%)
S&P 500
2,143.16, -8.17 (-0.38%)
NYSE Composite
10,550.19, -41.12 (-0.39%)
They brag, they boast, some of them actually tell the truth from time to time about their overall performance in the markets, whether their specialty be in stocks, bonds, commodities, or currencies.
Claims by some that they have peculiar, timely, or otherwise savvy insights into the future - akin to soothsayers, fortune tellers and gypsy tarot card readers - are, as time goes by, either validated or proven worthless. A spotty track record is by no means a cause for shame or contrition. Rather, these various prognosticators continue to spew pablum, intending to coerce a generally ill-informed public that their positions are the ones that matter.
As the time until the general election dwindles to under two weeks, one thing the Wall Street elite have not - by and large - weighed in upon is the result of the presidential sweepstakes. That's probably for good reason. Like 95% of the general public, they aren't convinced of an outcome either in favor of Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton, but, few have expressed their sentiments on what will happen after either is elected.
While there are those who say that the stock market will take a hit if Donald Trump is the next president, few, if any, figure that a Clinton win would be bad for investors. Oddly enough, almost nobody is saying the stock market will roar whichever candidate wins.
That's a perspective that is based largely on stock market returns and historical fact. According to this CNN story, since 1944, the direction of the stock market between August 1 and October 31 has correctly predicted the outcome of the election a stunning 82% of the time.
The metric is startlingly simple. If the market is up during the three months prior to the election, the incumbent party wins. If the market is down, the challenger is swept into office.
As of this writing, that measure favors Donald J. Trump, the challenger, but only slightly. On July 29, the final trading day prior to August 1, the S&P 500 stood at 2,173.60. It closed on Tuesday at 2143.16, about 1 1/2 percent off during the span.
There are three trading days left in the predicted period. It's possible that a strong rally could lift the averages back above the August 1 level, though it is beginning to appear more gloomy for Mrs. Clinton, the more the media bashes Trump and ignores the continuous, outrageous, potentially criminal behavior of the former First Lady and Secretary of State.
With the markets set to open in about a half hour, futures are lower. If this trend continues, get ready for a Trump presidency and the ascendancy of a moralistic, populist, business-first new regime in Washington.
Change at the top and across the political spectrum would likely be a boon to the majority of working Americans. After all, they're the ones that really matter, right?
Tuesday Trauma:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,169.27, -53.76 (-0.30%)
NASDAQ
5,283.40, -26.43 (-0.50%)
S&P 500
2,143.16, -8.17 (-0.38%)
NYSE Composite
10,550.19, -41.12 (-0.39%)
Thursday, October 20, 2016
Why Bother With This Yo-Yo Market?
Since Money Daily is still on the camping-off-the-grid-who-cares schedule, some readers (all three of you) might be wondering why.
The answer is simple. Just like the US electoral process, the stock market is rigged. It's been rigged since 2008 at least, when the wheels actually did fall off, but the central bank consortium, in association with various elected and unelected governments worldwide, managed to pull wool over the public's eyes (after a good and righteous fleecing of course) and get the global economy chugging along again.
One problem, however, remained, and remains until this very day.
The wheels fell off.
When stocks crashed in 2008 and banks were about to become entities controlled by conservators or administrators in receivership, the Federal Reserve swooped in and rescued them. All of them. Even banks and institutions in Europe. All except for Lehman Brothers, which was quickly bankrupted and sold piecemeal to entities such as Barclay's and Nomura. Other banks sucked up such failed entities as Countrywide, Merrill Lynch, and Indymac. Had they not, the bankruptcies would have proceeded as normal.
Instead of the orderly process of bankruptcy and the wholesale disposition of assets, the Fed and the banks (again, with help from the government, i.e., taxpayer money) bailed out the system, which is why it's still broken. There are pieces of failure floating all around the financial universe though rarely is a word spoken of them.
For just one instance, consider the fates of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two quasi-government mortgage institutions that are still under government receivership. Congress has been and continues to be unwilling to unwind these GSAs because all the bad would come out of them. The Fed is sitting on bad mortgages from a decade ago, the US housing market in many areas is in a shambles and interest rates have nowhere to go but down.
The Fed, the ECB and the bank of Japan - among others - have circled the wagons and there's no way out... for anybody. Prosperity is a word reserved for history books. Job growth is non-existent, wage growth is stagnant, GDP is a made up number that barely suffices to cover the ultimate fraud of excessive government and central bank intervention.
In case anyone wonders why stocks haven't budged since breaking out to new highs in July (a direct result of Brexit and resulting manipulation to hide the sins) it's precisely because there is no real market. There is no price discovery because that's been blown apart by the Fed. There's only guessing and manipulation.
What used to be the most robust and dynamic markets in the world have been reduced to pixie dust and unicorns. None of it is real. From the dollar bills we use for currency to the massive treasury bond auctions that fund the continued fantasy of a working financial system, it's all fake. Every price is contrived; there is no such thing as fundamental financial analysis.
There is only the Fed, the EU and the BOJ. And they're all phonies.
God, when will it all end?
The answer is simple. Just like the US electoral process, the stock market is rigged. It's been rigged since 2008 at least, when the wheels actually did fall off, but the central bank consortium, in association with various elected and unelected governments worldwide, managed to pull wool over the public's eyes (after a good and righteous fleecing of course) and get the global economy chugging along again.
One problem, however, remained, and remains until this very day.
The wheels fell off.
When stocks crashed in 2008 and banks were about to become entities controlled by conservators or administrators in receivership, the Federal Reserve swooped in and rescued them. All of them. Even banks and institutions in Europe. All except for Lehman Brothers, which was quickly bankrupted and sold piecemeal to entities such as Barclay's and Nomura. Other banks sucked up such failed entities as Countrywide, Merrill Lynch, and Indymac. Had they not, the bankruptcies would have proceeded as normal.
Instead of the orderly process of bankruptcy and the wholesale disposition of assets, the Fed and the banks (again, with help from the government, i.e., taxpayer money) bailed out the system, which is why it's still broken. There are pieces of failure floating all around the financial universe though rarely is a word spoken of them.
For just one instance, consider the fates of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two quasi-government mortgage institutions that are still under government receivership. Congress has been and continues to be unwilling to unwind these GSAs because all the bad would come out of them. The Fed is sitting on bad mortgages from a decade ago, the US housing market in many areas is in a shambles and interest rates have nowhere to go but down.
The Fed, the ECB and the bank of Japan - among others - have circled the wagons and there's no way out... for anybody. Prosperity is a word reserved for history books. Job growth is non-existent, wage growth is stagnant, GDP is a made up number that barely suffices to cover the ultimate fraud of excessive government and central bank intervention.
In case anyone wonders why stocks haven't budged since breaking out to new highs in July (a direct result of Brexit and resulting manipulation to hide the sins) it's precisely because there is no real market. There is no price discovery because that's been blown apart by the Fed. There's only guessing and manipulation.
What used to be the most robust and dynamic markets in the world have been reduced to pixie dust and unicorns. None of it is real. From the dollar bills we use for currency to the massive treasury bond auctions that fund the continued fantasy of a working financial system, it's all fake. Every price is contrived; there is no such thing as fundamental financial analysis.
There is only the Fed, the EU and the BOJ. And they're all phonies.
God, when will it all end?
Friday, October 14, 2016
Stocks Pop, Stop, Drop Friday; Week Ends With Losses Across The Board
With the political world in a complete media-induced frenzy, Wall Street took matters in stride eventually giving up ground for the week despite a naked attempt at a rally Friday.
The Dow was up more than 150 points early on Friday morning, but euphoria turned to skepticism as the session wore on, with all the indices slipping back toward what ended up being marginal gains.
Despite the weak action, there was the usual last-half-hour bid, which boosted the the Dow, for a while, to something of a more respectable level. The action was likely a function of short-covering, considering that there may still be short players in the mix, despite eight years of continuous gains without so much as a 15% correction. Such is the level of fraud involved in indices and trading after a full century of Fed interventions, trickery, thievery and mostly, inflation.
Still, at the end of the day, all the averages closed near the low points of their respective sessions, an ominous sign when one considers that the status quo seems to have everything under control in the political, social, and financial arenas, if, what one means by "under control" is $20 trillion of non-payable debt.
Investing used to be fun. Nowadays, it's just painful, whether one is merely watching or participating.
The NASDAQ took the biggest spill of the week, down nearly 1 1/2 percent. Oddly enough, the NASDAQ and S&P both ended the day higher, but each by less than one point. Weird.
Friday's Fumble:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,138.38, +39.44 (0.22%)
NASDAQ
5,214.16, +0.83 (0.02%)
S&P 500
2,132.98, +0.43 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite
10,533.83, +8.90 (0.08%)
For the week ended 10/14/16:
Dow: -102.11 (-0.56%)
S&P 500: -20.76 (-0.96%)
NASDAQ: -78.24 (-1.48%)
NYSE Composite: -91.36 (-0.86%)
The Dow was up more than 150 points early on Friday morning, but euphoria turned to skepticism as the session wore on, with all the indices slipping back toward what ended up being marginal gains.
Despite the weak action, there was the usual last-half-hour bid, which boosted the the Dow, for a while, to something of a more respectable level. The action was likely a function of short-covering, considering that there may still be short players in the mix, despite eight years of continuous gains without so much as a 15% correction. Such is the level of fraud involved in indices and trading after a full century of Fed interventions, trickery, thievery and mostly, inflation.
Still, at the end of the day, all the averages closed near the low points of their respective sessions, an ominous sign when one considers that the status quo seems to have everything under control in the political, social, and financial arenas, if, what one means by "under control" is $20 trillion of non-payable debt.
Investing used to be fun. Nowadays, it's just painful, whether one is merely watching or participating.
The NASDAQ took the biggest spill of the week, down nearly 1 1/2 percent. Oddly enough, the NASDAQ and S&P both ended the day higher, but each by less than one point. Weird.
Friday's Fumble:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,138.38, +39.44 (0.22%)
NASDAQ
5,214.16, +0.83 (0.02%)
S&P 500
2,132.98, +0.43 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite
10,533.83, +8.90 (0.08%)
For the week ended 10/14/16:
Dow: -102.11 (-0.56%)
S&P 500: -20.76 (-0.96%)
NASDAQ: -78.24 (-1.48%)
NYSE Composite: -91.36 (-0.86%)
Monday, October 10, 2016
Fearless Rick Predicts: Trump To Win In Landslide Victory
Dispensing with the usual market noise and fury, today let’s look at the political spectrum, in particular, the presidential race.
In the aftermath of the leaked Trump video, the further Wikileaks of Hillary Clinton’s speeches to the Wall Street elite, and Sunday night’s debate, a common theme has emerged. The Democrats have, as usual, nothing more than empty rhetoric and the politics of personal destruction.
Republican candidate Trump has been dealt a bag of lies, dirty tricks, one-sided media reportage and bias, inaccurate, dubious polling data, slurs, baits, and typical trash talk, but he has not folded, not has he bent to the pressure in the least.
While Donald Trump may not be the ideal Republican candidate, he is largely better than his Democrat rival, Hillary Clinton, whose over 30 years of public service have yielded no tangible, positive results for the majority of Americans.
Trump is correct in pointing out that the Democrats - for whom the African-American populace slavishly vote for in every election, be it local, state or national in scale - have done nothing to enhance the ling conditions of the black community. The same goes for nearly every other minority. The Democrats are full of promises and negligent on deliverance. It is the same tactic trotted out year after year, in election after election. Democrats preach equality and tolerance, but demonstrate neither.
It’s time for Americans to see through the Democrat party as nothing more than socialism on steroids. Every problem is solved by more policies, more spending, higher taxes, greater regulation. The majority of taxpaying people in this country (and even tax-avoiders) are - or should be - fed up with the dictates and policies promulgated by the left and they should be energized enough to put an end to it next month, when millions will make their voices heard through their votes.
There are no sure things in life, but if ever there was a moment for a complete convulsion in the fabric of American life, it is now. Eight years of Obama’s socialism has led to this moment. Mr. Trump has prevailed over all his Republican rivals, many of whom - as much a part of the elite status quo as the Democrats - have withdrawn their support or never supported the nominee at all.
Hillary Clinton is another empty suit. Donald Trump is a businessman who has had great success and celebrity over the years. The Democrats have tried in vain to denigrate and demonize him precisely because they are afraid of losing the election and increasingly desperate.
If the truth be known, most of the polls are so wickedly biased toward the Democrats (see this story by Sharyl Attkisson for more) they cannot be believed. This race is not even close. More and more people are being swayed by the power of Trump’s persuasion for a greater America, for a return to traditional values, for supporting the constitution, lowering taxes, eliminating regulations and improving the quality of life for the middle class.
There should be no doubt when the buttons are pushed or levers pulled. Donald Trump will win the presidential election in an absolute, stunning landslide on a scale of Ronald Reagan’s victory in 1980.
The only caveat - and it is a serious one - is if the election is rigged and stolen outright by the Democrats or the powers that be. Both sides have done it and there is a very good chance that if Clinton is seen as losing midday on November 8, all bets are off, all votes will be nullified electronically or by other means. It’s a real threat, but, otherwise, Donald Trump will win convincingly.
Monday's Markets:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,329.04, +88.55 (0.49%)
NASDAQ
5,328.67, +36.27 (0.69%)
S&P 500
2,163.66, +9.92 (0.46%)
NYSE Composite
10,682.71, +55.79 (0.53%)
In the aftermath of the leaked Trump video, the further Wikileaks of Hillary Clinton’s speeches to the Wall Street elite, and Sunday night’s debate, a common theme has emerged. The Democrats have, as usual, nothing more than empty rhetoric and the politics of personal destruction.
Republican candidate Trump has been dealt a bag of lies, dirty tricks, one-sided media reportage and bias, inaccurate, dubious polling data, slurs, baits, and typical trash talk, but he has not folded, not has he bent to the pressure in the least.
While Donald Trump may not be the ideal Republican candidate, he is largely better than his Democrat rival, Hillary Clinton, whose over 30 years of public service have yielded no tangible, positive results for the majority of Americans.
Trump is correct in pointing out that the Democrats - for whom the African-American populace slavishly vote for in every election, be it local, state or national in scale - have done nothing to enhance the ling conditions of the black community. The same goes for nearly every other minority. The Democrats are full of promises and negligent on deliverance. It is the same tactic trotted out year after year, in election after election. Democrats preach equality and tolerance, but demonstrate neither.
It’s time for Americans to see through the Democrat party as nothing more than socialism on steroids. Every problem is solved by more policies, more spending, higher taxes, greater regulation. The majority of taxpaying people in this country (and even tax-avoiders) are - or should be - fed up with the dictates and policies promulgated by the left and they should be energized enough to put an end to it next month, when millions will make their voices heard through their votes.
There are no sure things in life, but if ever there was a moment for a complete convulsion in the fabric of American life, it is now. Eight years of Obama’s socialism has led to this moment. Mr. Trump has prevailed over all his Republican rivals, many of whom - as much a part of the elite status quo as the Democrats - have withdrawn their support or never supported the nominee at all.
Hillary Clinton is another empty suit. Donald Trump is a businessman who has had great success and celebrity over the years. The Democrats have tried in vain to denigrate and demonize him precisely because they are afraid of losing the election and increasingly desperate.
If the truth be known, most of the polls are so wickedly biased toward the Democrats (see this story by Sharyl Attkisson for more) they cannot be believed. This race is not even close. More and more people are being swayed by the power of Trump’s persuasion for a greater America, for a return to traditional values, for supporting the constitution, lowering taxes, eliminating regulations and improving the quality of life for the middle class.
There should be no doubt when the buttons are pushed or levers pulled. Donald Trump will win the presidential election in an absolute, stunning landslide on a scale of Ronald Reagan’s victory in 1980.
The only caveat - and it is a serious one - is if the election is rigged and stolen outright by the Democrats or the powers that be. Both sides have done it and there is a very good chance that if Clinton is seen as losing midday on November 8, all bets are off, all votes will be nullified electronically or by other means. It’s a real threat, but, otherwise, Donald Trump will win convincingly.
Monday's Markets:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,329.04, +88.55 (0.49%)
NASDAQ
5,328.67, +36.27 (0.69%)
S&P 500
2,163.66, +9.92 (0.46%)
NYSE Composite
10,682.71, +55.79 (0.53%)
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