Borrowing a line from "Seinfeld," serenity now, insanity later.
At the Close, 8/7/17:
Dow: 22,118.42, +25.61 (0.12%)
NASDAQ: 6,383.77, +32.21 (0.51%)
S&P 500: 2,480.91, +4.08 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 11,987.77, +2.89 (0.02%)
Tuesday, August 8, 2017
Monday, August 7, 2017
Dow Continues to Careen Higher as Other Indices Lag
Maybe the markets are broken by HFTs, computer algorithms, program trading, bid stuffing, and an assortment of hype, funny fiat money, low interest rates and the hunt for yield.
Maybe not, but, the week's look at the major indices indicates that only the Dow Jones Industrials posted solid gains (rising for the 9th straight session to another all-time high) while the other three major averages were essentially running in place, the NASDAQ actually posting a loss.
It's not unusual for one index to lead the market, but, since the 2008, stocks have made outsize gains and the darlings on the Dow have exceeded all expectations. Despite carrying some of the most obscenely-high P/E ratios in market history, traders continue to bang away at the McDonalds, Apples and Intels of the world, as though there is nothing other to buy.
These are the kinds of trading decisions which lead to apathy and eventual market convulsions. For now, however, there's nothing but the Dow Jones Industrial Average to prompt the cheerleading from everyone from the President of the United States on down.
Having a runaway stock market may be a sign of a strong economy, but, in this case, since it is so isolated, it should be viewed as a sign of imbalance.
At the Close, 8/4/17:
Dow: 22,092.81, +66.71 (0.30%)
NASDAQ 6,351.56, +11.22 (0.18%)
S&P 500 2,476.83, +4.67 (0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 11,984.89, +28.37 (0.24%)
For the Week:
Dow: +262.50 (1.20%)
NASDAQ: -23.11 (-0.36%)
S&P 500: +4.73 (0.19%)
NYSE Composite: +30.20 (0.25%)
Maybe not, but, the week's look at the major indices indicates that only the Dow Jones Industrials posted solid gains (rising for the 9th straight session to another all-time high) while the other three major averages were essentially running in place, the NASDAQ actually posting a loss.
It's not unusual for one index to lead the market, but, since the 2008, stocks have made outsize gains and the darlings on the Dow have exceeded all expectations. Despite carrying some of the most obscenely-high P/E ratios in market history, traders continue to bang away at the McDonalds, Apples and Intels of the world, as though there is nothing other to buy.
These are the kinds of trading decisions which lead to apathy and eventual market convulsions. For now, however, there's nothing but the Dow Jones Industrial Average to prompt the cheerleading from everyone from the President of the United States on down.
Having a runaway stock market may be a sign of a strong economy, but, in this case, since it is so isolated, it should be viewed as a sign of imbalance.
At the Close, 8/4/17:
Dow: 22,092.81, +66.71 (0.30%)
NASDAQ 6,351.56, +11.22 (0.18%)
S&P 500 2,476.83, +4.67 (0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 11,984.89, +28.37 (0.24%)
For the Week:
Dow: +262.50 (1.20%)
NASDAQ: -23.11 (-0.36%)
S&P 500: +4.73 (0.19%)
NYSE Composite: +30.20 (0.25%)
Friday, August 4, 2017
Indices Split Again, Dow Only Gainer; NFP Shows 209,000 July Jobs
The rally fizzled badly on Thursday, but the market may get a boost from strong jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which showed non-farm payrolls increasing by 209,000 in the month of July.
All the major index futures are showing plus signs prior to the opening bell on Wall Street. The official unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, matching the 16-year low set back in May.
With all this good news on the employment front, there seems to be nothing capable of holding back another rally on Wall Street to close out the week.
If all of this seems to be a trifle boring, it's because the Dow has now posted gains in each of the last eight sessions, rising from 21,500 to over 22,000 over that short span.
The other indices don't appear to share the enthusiasm for the Dow. The NASDAQ in particular has been down five of the last six sessions.
Perhaps this is just money moving from speculative tech stocks into solid dividend-paying stocks on the Dow, although Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel (INTC) are all components of the 30 Dow Jones Industrials.
At the Close, 8/3/17:
Dow: 22,026.10, +9.86 (0.04%)
NASDAQ: 6,340.34, -22.30 (-0.35%)
S&P 500: 2,472.16, -5.41 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 11,956.52, -22.85 (-0.19%)
All the major index futures are showing plus signs prior to the opening bell on Wall Street. The official unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, matching the 16-year low set back in May.
With all this good news on the employment front, there seems to be nothing capable of holding back another rally on Wall Street to close out the week.
If all of this seems to be a trifle boring, it's because the Dow has now posted gains in each of the last eight sessions, rising from 21,500 to over 22,000 over that short span.
The other indices don't appear to share the enthusiasm for the Dow. The NASDAQ in particular has been down five of the last six sessions.
Perhaps this is just money moving from speculative tech stocks into solid dividend-paying stocks on the Dow, although Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel (INTC) are all components of the 30 Dow Jones Industrials.
At the Close, 8/3/17:
Dow: 22,026.10, +9.86 (0.04%)
NASDAQ: 6,340.34, -22.30 (-0.35%)
S&P 500: 2,472.16, -5.41 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 11,956.52, -22.85 (-0.19%)
Thursday, August 3, 2017
Dow Cracks 22,000
Putting the recent rise of the Dow Jones Industrial Average into perspective, on March 9, 2009, the index closed at 6,547.05, generally considered the bottom of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). That's a gain of 236%, or, an average of nearly 30% per year in just over eight years. At that rate, compounded, $100,000 would have turned into over $800,000.
That's in an economy which hasn't had growth of more than 2.6% in any year since 2008.
That is not just absurd on the face, it's nearly impossible... unless the markets had help. Thank the Fed.
At the Close, 8/2/17:
Dow: 22,016.24, +52.32 (0.24%)
NASDAQ: 6,362.65, -0.29 (0.00%)
S&P 500: 2,477.57, +1.22 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 11,979.37, -20.65 (-0.17%)
That's in an economy which hasn't had growth of more than 2.6% in any year since 2008.
That is not just absurd on the face, it's nearly impossible... unless the markets had help. Thank the Fed.
At the Close, 8/2/17:
Dow: 22,016.24, +52.32 (0.24%)
NASDAQ: 6,362.65, -0.29 (0.00%)
S&P 500: 2,477.57, +1.22 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 11,979.37, -20.65 (-0.17%)
Wednesday, August 2, 2017
Dow Set To Rise Over 22,000; ADP Report Shows 178,000 July Jobs
For a change, all of the major indices moved in the same direction on the day. While the Dow set a new closing all-time high, it fell short of the 22,000 milestone, though the NYSE Composite squeaked by the 12,000 mark by a mere 0.02 points.
With earnings news continuing to come out in fairly rosy fashion, the latest from Apple (AAPL), reporting better-than-expected iPhone sales, revenue and earnings per share.
As August rolls along, there appear to be few impediments to further gains in stocks. Earnings reports will begin to slow to a trickle, but there is no FOMC meeting this month, and congress is likely to take at least two weeks off after wasting the first two weeks of the month posturing and posing over health care and/or tax reform.
It's unlikely that congress will accomplish anything of import, as their record of accomplishments since Donald Trump became president is shallow and thin.
Of some significance is Friday's release of July non-farm payroll numbers. Wednesday morning, ADP released their proprietary payroll data for the month, showing 178,000 new private sector jobs created in July. Expectations were for 185,000, after June disappointed with just 158,000 jobs created.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes its data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 am ET.
Whether the jobs data is good or bad may be immaterial, as the market has a tendency to take either without much pause. Just about everybody knows the economy is stuck in low gear, with the Fed and other central banks' backing and active in the markets.
22,000 on the Dow is a no-brainer. Unless war is launched against North Korea or some other great geo-political development occurs, nothing significant is likely to happen until congress reconvenes in September and attempts to craft a budget and hurdle the debt ceiling.
If there's ever been a time to break out the "all clear" foghorn, this could be it.
Still, it's advisable to keep close stops on positions because surprises routinely occur when complacency is high.
At the Close, 8/1/17:
Dow: 21,963.92, +72.80 (0.33%)
NASDAQ: 6,362.94, +14.81 (0.23%)
S&P 500: 2,476.35, +6.05 (0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 12,000.02, +32.35 (0.27%)
With earnings news continuing to come out in fairly rosy fashion, the latest from Apple (AAPL), reporting better-than-expected iPhone sales, revenue and earnings per share.
As August rolls along, there appear to be few impediments to further gains in stocks. Earnings reports will begin to slow to a trickle, but there is no FOMC meeting this month, and congress is likely to take at least two weeks off after wasting the first two weeks of the month posturing and posing over health care and/or tax reform.
It's unlikely that congress will accomplish anything of import, as their record of accomplishments since Donald Trump became president is shallow and thin.
Of some significance is Friday's release of July non-farm payroll numbers. Wednesday morning, ADP released their proprietary payroll data for the month, showing 178,000 new private sector jobs created in July. Expectations were for 185,000, after June disappointed with just 158,000 jobs created.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes its data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 am ET.
Whether the jobs data is good or bad may be immaterial, as the market has a tendency to take either without much pause. Just about everybody knows the economy is stuck in low gear, with the Fed and other central banks' backing and active in the markets.
22,000 on the Dow is a no-brainer. Unless war is launched against North Korea or some other great geo-political development occurs, nothing significant is likely to happen until congress reconvenes in September and attempts to craft a budget and hurdle the debt ceiling.
If there's ever been a time to break out the "all clear" foghorn, this could be it.
Still, it's advisable to keep close stops on positions because surprises routinely occur when complacency is high.
At the Close, 8/1/17:
Dow: 21,963.92, +72.80 (0.33%)
NASDAQ: 6,362.94, +14.81 (0.23%)
S&P 500: 2,476.35, +6.05 (0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 12,000.02, +32.35 (0.27%)
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