Stocks Falter As 2020 Trudges To A Close; 2021 Likely To Be Worse

As capital markets go, there was a disturbance in the farce on Tuesday, as European stocks took off and US stocks stalled out. After making all-time highs on Monday, the three main indices (Dow, NASDAQ, S&P) retreated slightly, expressing at least a little bit of pessimism that economic recovery from the CV-19 pandemic of 2020 was not going as smoothly as anticipated.

A "V-shaped recovery" was never going to materialize while small businesses were shuttered by the thousands, commercial and residential rents were largely deferred until some later date, and residential, government-backed mortgages were placed on hold, put in abeyance or otherwise not serviced in timely manners, and new unemployment claims continued to pour in at levels not seen since the Great Depression.

The only people who believed in such nonsense were the clinically insane, mentally-challenged, and just plain gullible sheep-people who populated most of urban America.

When you have people like Klaus Schwaub, founder and director of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, calling for a Great Reset, well-informed people will quickly come to the realization that "reset" and "recovery" are nearly diametrically-opposed conceptual constructs which cannot, in the real world, be reconciled in an orderly manner.

Taking an analogy of a sick patient, a doctor seeing recovery would find the patient's blood counts improved, breathing more relaxed and natural, color gradually returning to cheeks, and generally better overall mood and bodily function. In the case of a reset, the patient, in a prone position on a hospital bed, wheezes all night, heart rate slows, bodily functions cease functioning until put on life support, pumped with experimental drugs and blood transfusions until reaching a level of functional sustainability with the help of more drugs, stimulants, and maybe a catheter to control the effusion of toxins.

The recovered patient would gradually return to pre-existing condition without after-effects. The reset patient would be molded and coaxed into a condition of dependency on medicine or other ambulatory devices dissimilar to the prior, pre-illness condition.

Instead of a recovery to a so-called "new normal," a reset is where the US and global economies are headed. The promise to "Build Back Better" so often flouted by the elite super-structuralists who view globalization, slavish adherence to dictates, and overt population control as panacea for their new world order failed to mention that what they intend to build back will be better for them, but not necessarily so for the 99% of the world that will be forced to live under the thumb of their dominion.

So, it's crystal-ball-gazing time as the world tries to live out the remaining few days of 2020 without succumbing to depression, disease or starvation, all of which will be in-your-face elements of 2021.

In all seriousness, as bad as 2020 was and continues to be, 2021 is likely to be even worse for a majority of people not in the big club of politicians, bankers, and propagandists otherwise known as the mainstream media.

The year of 2021 will be marked by even more scary stories about diseases led by the CV-19 strain mutating into more virulent forms, government non-legal mandates growing exponentially, economic and mental depression, and living conditions unlike anything seen since the 1930s.

Nothing will be "back to normal." Facial coverings, masks, will likely be mandated to even larger swaths of society. Money will become scarce, the government forced to issue more $600, $1200, or $2000 checks to those deemed worthy of a pittance of hope. The stock market will continue going up until some realization of where exactly we are and where we are all headed (hint: gates of hell) becomes accepted and normative. At that point, one of the greatest economic collapses of all time will commence. 2020 was only a prelude to the actual disaster awaiting in 2021.

There will be no recovery so long as individuals are mandated to do as the government wishes and compliance is high, as it is today, clearly expressed by the preponderance of mask-wearers, social-distancers, and bleating, frightened sheep-people clamoring for more more government benefits, bailouts, buyouts, and biscuits.

Government employees at all levels - local, state, federal - will be well-compensated for their strict adherence to mandates and control over the rest of society. Go to a bank, a school, a police precinct, a court, or any government office and the smug, down-looking attitude of the drone-like civil servants will be obsequious and unrelenting.

You will be told endlessly to do things you would otherwise be opposed to: wear a mask, don't touch anything or anybody, get immunized, carry your papers, be searched, stripped of your rights, dehumanized. The planet will be reduced to a global plantation where you are the slave and the government is the master, the exact opposite of life prior to the pandemic.

Not that everybody will willingly accept what the government, the medical community, and the media is thrusting upon society, there will be protesters, civil disturbances, rule-benders, law-breakers, mass shootings, mass incarcerations, arson, robberies, rapes, murders, looting, and destruction of everything, everywhere. It's not going to be pretty and there's no escaping it other than by individual action as there is no organized resistance. And, even if there were, it would be crushed under the boot of the new tyranny in short order.

If you're thinking that 2020 was other-worldly, just wait until you see what's in store for 2021. It will be like traveling into a different dimension, a twilight zone of despondency, despair, and depression. Klaus Schwaub says, “You will own nothing and you will be happy.” Good luck with that as a leading indicator.

Happy New Year? Not just yet. Some rays of hope and streams of instruction tomorrow in the final 2020 post at Money Daily.

At the Close, Tuesday, December 29, 2020:
Dow: 30,335.67, -68.30 (-0.22%)
NASDAQ: 12,850.22, -49.20 (-0.38%)
S&P 500: 3,727.04, -8.32 (-0.22%)
NYSE: 14,397.92, -7.85 (-0.05%)

Trump Signs CR, COVID-19 Relief Bills, Markets Soar To Record Highs

As 2020, the year from hell, grinds to a close, there was no slowing the Santa Claus rally as all of the major US indices closed at record highs, with the exception of the NYSE Composite, which fell short of the 14,516.73 close on December 17.

The indices took differing paths to greatness. The Dow and spiked early and made the high of the day mid-morning, slumping afterwards, while the S&P meandered along a high plain after a boost at the open. NASDAQ stocks were up, then down, eventually turning in strong gains.

Monday's rally was largely the result of President Trump signing the continuing resolution (CR) which congress handed him - and he objected to - over the holiday weekend. The $2.3 trillion measure included a nearly $900 billion COVID relief bill, extending added unemployment insurance, rent and mortgage deferrals, while doling out millions and billions to states, schools, airlines, and assorted government welfare queens.

The president did promise to send congress a redlined copy of the legislation, singling out various items in the CR, notably, most of the foreign aid packages congress uses for bribery and cash payoffs, and other pork-barrel handouts to various federal agencies and special interests. While President Trump will likely make political hay whenever congress decides to ignore his "rescissions" on spending, his objections have no weight of law, becoming effectively just for political purposes.

Democrats "will reject any rescissions" submitted by the president, said Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Nita Lowey, D-NY, in a statement.

Included in the COVID relief legislation are $600 checks to Americans earning less than $75,000, with similar amounts for qualifying dependents. The president and Democrats in the House lobbied for checks of $2000, but Senate and House Republicans were against the larger amount. During its Monday session, the House passed a stand-alone bill approving $2000 checks. The measure goes to the Senate, where passage is seen as slim, though still a possibility if certain Republicans shift their votes away from the usual conservative, austere bloc.

In any case, larger checks in the future seem almost a surety, and no doubt Wall Street is banking on such an outcome. More handouts and free money from the government is net positive for stocks, as it has been for years.

With full sessions Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, only three days remain to square up positions in 2020. Friday is January 1, New Year's Day. All markets will be closed.

Tuesday morning futures are pointing to another higher open, so expect this rally to extend into the year's end and likely beyond when trading resumes Monday, January 4. Stocks generally have been bid up every January, and there seems to be no impediment other than possible objections or other surprises related to the electoral collage vote for president and vice president on January 6.

For now, all appears to be smooth sailing.

Happy Holidays!

At the Close, Monday, December 28, 2020:
Dow: 30,403.97, +204.10 (+0.68%)
NASDAQ: 12,899.42, +94.69 (+0.74%)
S&P 500: 3,735.36, +32.30 (+0.87%)
NYSE: 14,405.77, +23.27 (+0.16%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Crosshairs On Congress; Max Keiser Parses Bitcoin; Keith Neumeyer Nudges Silver Rationing

Merry Christmas.

And here's hoping for a Happy New Year in 2021, because, to put it mildly, 2020 "kinda sucked."

The trouble that continues to build up in the global economy didn't happen overnight and it didn't happen because of CV-19. Problems in the global economy took decades to develop, mostly since the closing of the gold window by then-president Richard M. Nixon in August of 1971. The pandemic narrative that's been foisted upon the world's malleable and naive general population was the catalyst. Quarantines, masks, social distancing, and lockdowns were the manifestation.

More people will be irreparably harmed or killed by what follows CV-19 than the virus itself. That's not speculation. That's a fact that is already being verified. Food lines, shortages, mental disorders, spousal abuse, violent crime, rape, and murder are all rising dramatically as government's over-reaching response is wreaking havoc upon entire nations, down to cities and towns and neighborhoods.

In the end, it is everybody's fault. We elected people we thought were trustworthy, honest, forthright: people who would do the right thing for the general good.

We were wrong.

We were wrong to trust them and their legions of civil public sector zombies to guide us into the future, to make living easier. Instead, they shafted us at every opportunity, through taxation, fees, regulations, and favoring themselves and their supporters - major financial firms, global corporate donors, elite billionaire special interests - over the desires and needs of the general public.

Over the past nearly 50 years the betrayal has been gradually accelerating to the point at which it is nearly complete and that can be seen clearly in the stolen election, the lockdowns which boosted large corporations and public employees (all of whom continue to be paid handsomely) at the expense of private business and the general public. The idleness and willful ignorance of congress in first delaying passage of needed relief legislation, then fumbling of the same at the last minute while trying to tie the CV-19 to the general government appropriations bill (the continuing resolution) was not an accident, and, even if it was, it was unavoidable.

The bickering Democrats and Republicans don't actually have any moral or economic principle guiding them other then their quest to hold onto power. But, President Trump has pushed them to the limit by denying his signature on their bills, forcing the entire congress to miss their planned year-end holiday recess, to remain in Washington, DC, until satisfactory legislation can be achieved. It's very likely that it won't be. Congress is so massively contorted and corrupted that the chances of it passing meaningful, helpful relief and spending bills are practically nil. So consumed by greed, power, and self-absorbed narcissism, this congress may prove to be the one which eventually fails to fund even itself.

With both the House and Senate set to reconvene on Monday to sort things out, their last continuing resolution expiring that night, they're likely to complete work on a very short-term bill, something along the order of two weeks of funding for the federal government, similar to the last. The president should not sign it. He should allow the government to shut down. After all, practically the entire congress has conspired to get rid of him, so he might as well get rid of them. Shut them down. Take away all their perks, their guards, their security, their staffs, their offices, their phones, close the doors to the Capitol and send them packing. We'd all be better off.

As much as millions of Americans would applaud the actions described in the preceding paragraph, we all know it won't happen. Such raucous behavior and dictatorial actions are reserved for tin-pot, third world, banana republics. But, since congress has set us on a course for third-world status and a fruity future, why not just jump-start the process? If only it were that simple.

Congress will pass horrible bills that serve their intersests - like rehabbing the Kennedy Center, gender studies for Pakistan, graft to other foreign nations - and the president will decide whether to sign them or not, or leave them for his chosen successor to sort out, if such a path is the only one left.

On January 6, Vice President Mike Pence will submit certificates of election from all 50 states from the electoral college to a joint session of congress. However, because the results from some states are still disputed due to widespread irregularities and evidence of manipulation and cheating, seven states have submitted contested certificates: ones for Joe Biden, others for President Trump.

Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico have submitted certificates for both candidates, from the governors or secretaries of state and the legislatures, separately. How this plays out is a weighty matter which needs only a few courageous members of congress to object to any states' ballot. Such objection would then trigger debate on the floor and a vote for resolution. The congress could decide for one candidate or neither. If either candidate fails to receive the necessary 270 electoral college votes, the matter would shift to the House and the Congress, where each state's delegation receives one vote, winner take all, the House choosing the president, the senate choosing vice president. It could literally go either way.

With all of that hanging in the balance, the shortened trading week prior to Christmas was rather subdued as concerned stocks and bonds, practically silent for precious metals, as oil gained in price, and Bitcoin went absolutely ballistic before, during and beyond the holy day holiday.

Major US indices were split, with the Dow and NASDAQ gaining, the S&P and NYSE declining, though none significantly, all moving less then one percent in either direction. It was truly a week spent watching and waiting, squaring up or exiting positions and getting out of town for celebratory affairs.

Treasuries were equally unmoved, the short end of the curve stuck to the zero-bound, 10-year and 30-year yields off one and four basis points, to 0.94% and 1.66%, respectively.

Light sweet crude oil fell slightly, whipsawing from the prior Friday (Dec. 18) close of $49.10 per barrel to as low as $47.02, settling out at $48.30. The national average price of gas at the pump was $2.22 as of 12/21, the highest since mid-September. Pressure on oil and gas prices will abate after the holidays, as it almost always does. Demand is low, supply high. Just watch.

Standing out amongst all asset classes was cryptocurrency, specifically, Bitcoin, which has been rallying for months, nearly without exception, as he new money continues to be adopted by consumers and institutional investors alike. Traded continuously without taking breaks for nights, weekends, or holidays, Bitcoin traded in a range above $22,000 and below $24,000 from the 17th to 23rd of December, then accelerated into and post-holiday, breaking above $24,000, $25,000 and eventually, by Sunday morning, above $28,000. Coinbase charts the price as high as $28,387 early Sunday morning beforre backing off into the $27,000 range, making new highs over and over again.

The reserve currency of the crypto universe, as some call it, has been a spectacular performer all of 2020, but just in the past month has rallied from around $16,500 to current record levels.

Gold was static, closing out at $1,883.20, down only slightly from the prior week's close of $1888.90. Likewise, silver was narrowly traded, down pennies, from $26.03 to $25.91.

Finally, here is the survey of most recent prices for commonly-purchased gold and silver items on eBay (numismatics excluded, shipping included):

Item: Low / High / Average / Median

1 oz silver coin: 33.00 / 49.00 / 40.09 / 39.98
1 oz silver bar: 29.87 / 49.95 / 38.05 / 39.00
1 oz gold coin: 1,991.20 / 2,095.00 / 2,032.98 / 2,024.22
1 oz gold bar: 1,904.20 / 2,043.20 / 1,979.75 / 1,980.17

Premiums on gold, and especially on silver, remain extraordinarily high due to supply constraint with some dealers imposing limits on size per month or week. Suppression of the price by bullion banks, naked shorting commercials, and general scurrilous behavior in futures and spot markets continues, but recently has been less ferocious and having shorter effective durations.

Daniela Cambone of Stansberry Research has been conducting interviews with some of the titans of (for lack of a better term) alternative finance, releasing the series on Youtube recently. Together, they constitute some of the best thinking and opinion of the brightest minds outside of the mainstream media, which, by definition, are less conscripted or otherwise compromised.

First, this awesome interview with Max Keiser on the future of bitcoin and the demise of central banks:

And here's Keith Neumeyer espousing the glories of silver:

At the Close, Thursday, December 24, 2020:
Dow: 30,199.87, +70.04 (+0.23%)
NASDAQ: 12,804.73, +33.62 (+0.26%)
S&P 500: 3,703.06, +13.05 (+0.35%)
NYSE: 14,382.50, -16.11 (-0.11%)

For the Week:
Dow: +20.82 (+0.07%)
NASDAQ: +49.10 (+0.38%)
S&P 500: -6.35 (-0.17%)
NYSE: -85.32 (-0.59%)

Wall Street Shrugs Off DC Drama, Mitch McConnell Faces Tough Choice On Trump Curveball

President Trump's apparent distaste for the small size of direct payments to citizens ($600) and the enormous give-aways to states and foreign countries in the package deal congress sent to him on Monday caused some shock waves at the Capitol on Wednesday, prompting House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, to agree with the president on larger stimulus checks ($2000), while Republicans clearly thought the Trump curveball was a split-fingered fastball, consequently whiffing, and looking bad doing so.

Whether intentional or not, Trump's pitch back at congress put Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, in an untenable position. Bear in mind, as a backdrop to the ongoing funding debate, that it was McConnell who, from the Senate floor, recently congratulated Joe Biden on winning the presidency, an outcome vehemently opposed by Trump.

McConnell has warned Republican senators not to challenge the electoral college votes which are to be presented to congress on January 6th, and now he faces a choice of either denying larger stimulus checks to Americans or giving up his long-standing fiscally-conservative position, thereby conceding to both the president and to House and Senate Democrats. No matter which way McConnell leans, he's going to lose stature among colleagues and party loyalists, to be seen as a nothing better than a grand poseur interested only in his political position of power.

Similarly, House minority leader, Kevin McCarthy, faces the same choice with regard to the Republican caucus, but he shot back at Pelosi, suggesting that while Democrats clearly favor larger stimulus checks, they are silent on the various pork expenditures that were pointed out as unacceptable by Trump.

Essentially, only President Trump will eventually come out of this mess looking good, preferring that tax dollars (and largely, borrowed dollars) be spent directly on taxpayers instead of special interests, foreign governments, states, and municipalities.

For its part, congress has once again shown its true self to the American people as 535 people who have little interest in the welfare of American citizens, always opting for political expediency over meaningful legislation.

On Wall Street, the reaction was a resounding "meh," the wizened professional bankrollers viewing the latest escapades of fiscal gerrymandering as business as usual from the political crowd.

Stocks were higher, with the exception of the NASDAQ, which posted a minor loss. Precious metals were, on the main, stagnant, while WTI crude oil prices continued to retract from recent highs above $49 per barrel, resting at $47.77 at Wednesday's close. Long-dated treasuries (10-year to 30-year) remain elevated with the short end flatlining at the zero bound, so, nothing much has changed in this shortened holiday week.

Thursday will be a shortened session for stocks, closing at 1:00 pm ET. Futures are pointing to a relatively flat open, as news flow has not provided anything startling in the macro sense and many traders have already exited for Christmas. After today, there will be only four more full sessions for the year as January 1, 2021 falls on next Friday.

How the politicians will sort out their self-engendered fiscal disaster remains up in the air, though the government will run out of money on December 28 if a continuing resolution is not conclusively agreed upon in congress and signed by the president by then.

What's riding on the dual track COVID relief and continuing resolution is which party will ultimately prevail in the eyes of Americans and whether congress sees fit to play Grinch or Scrooge with skinny stimulus checks or put on Santa Claus gear and spread the wealth to the people.

Happy Holidays!

At the Close, Wednesday, December 23, 2020:
Dow: 30,129.83, +114.32 (+0.38%)
NASDAQ: 12,771.11, -36.80 (-0.29%)
S&P 500: 3,690.01, +2.75 (+0.07%)
NYSE: 14,398.62, +77.28 (+0.54%)

Trump Punches Back On Election, COVID Relief; $600 Is "Not Enough"

Just when the grifters in congress thought it was safe to leave town after passing a $900 billion COVID relief bill attached to a $1.4 trillion omnibus spending bill, President Trump caught most of them wrong-footed, releasing a video overnight indicating that he would not sign off on the legislation in its current form.

Trump, in addition to releasing a 14-minute tirade on election fraud and how the country will not stand for a false Joe Biden victory, claimed congress' measly $600 to most Americans was simply not enough and demanded they return to work and pass a bill that supplies checks for $2,000 to Americans earning less than $75,000 a year.

Now, members of congress will not have the holiday they're so used to, and it's their own fault for delaying passage of not just the COVID relief bill, but stalling on and eventually tying the bill to the government funding legislation. All of this could have been done months ago, but the senators and house members were too preoccupied with politics and getting re-elected, something many of them failed to do.

In normal times, congress would have closed up shop a week before Christmas and not return until after New Year's Day. While they'll likely be back in town and in session on January 2nd, their holiday has been delayed from the planned start date of December 18th, this past Friday.

So, it's on. Trump is not going to back down on his election claims, despite the unrelenting denial by the media that Biden won when the evidence clearly proves Trump won in a landslide. He's also not going to back down on his desire for $2,000 checks to all Americans earning less than $75,000 a year, and $4,000 for married couples. Congress and the media have pushed him too far, to a point at which the election is likely to go to the House and Senate on January 6th, as competing slates of electors have been sent from Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania, with one slate for Joe Biden and another for Trump.

The drama coming out of Washington is noteworthy, historic, and demanding of the attention of every citizen. The fate of the nation resides in actions commencing over the coming three weeks.

Wall Street, meanwhile, seems relatively unconcerned over everything. Despite Tuesday's losses on the Dow, S&P and NYSE, the NASDAQ gained ground, as traders erased huge, early losses. The NASDAQ had shed some 43 points by late morning, but suddenly reversed course, as did the other indices. The Dow Industrials, in particular, never got back to unchanged and ended with a 200-point loss.

These gains and losses are just noise. Investors are mostly hanging on the sidelines, not initiating new positions or fleeing to cash or fixed income as the year comes to an end. While the politics may be entertaining and critical to the future, Wall Street sees it as an unnecessary sideshow to making money, which is their sole reason for being.

Even as another 803,000 Americans filed initial unemployment claims last week - as just reported this morning - investors appear calm as cookies, seemingly immune from political unrest and the effects of the scamdemic and the restrictions imposed by governors in most states which have shut down many small businesses and threatens the existence of many more.

Oddly enough, democrat Senate minority leader, Chuck Schumer and house majority leader, Nancy Pelosi, agree with the president on larger stimulus checks. Being a shrewd negotiator, Trump may have congress over the barrel on this one, as they desperately wish to get past the COVID and funding bills, take some time off and get back to their usual wrangling oover non-issues in January, even though it's obvious that congressional actions in January are going to be anything but "business as usual."

The three videos below are essential to understanding what's really at stake in America.

Happy Holidays!

President Trump's White House video outlining election fraud, blaming Democrats and mainstream media:

Senator Rand Paul berates conservatives, Republicans, and all of congress for "monstrosity" spending bill:

Finally, President Trump excoriates congress on COVID relief bill and wasteful spending:

At the Close, Tuesday, December 22, 2020:
Dow: 30,015.51, -200.94 (-0.67%)
NASDAQ: 12,807.92, +65.40 (+0.51%)
S&P 500: 3,687.26, -7.66 (-0.21%)
NYSE: 14,321.34, -57.51 (-0.40%)