PPI Red-Hot for July; Futures Slip Lower; Deere Sees Massive Revenue Shortfall, Tariff Expense; WTI Crude, Gold, Silver Down

NASDAQ and S&P 500 made new all-time highs on Wednesday. The Shiller PE (CAPE) topped out at 38.93, second highest ever. So, everything is just peachy, right?

Maybe. In a day, President Trump will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to see if there's a deal to be made on ending the conflict in Ukraine. Best of luck, Mr. Trump, since you're dealing from a position of weakness. Russia is winning, big time, advancing on all fronts, the Ukraine forces showing less and less resistance. Also, Zelensky, the self-appointed king of Ukraine, and most of the Eu nations don't want the war to end because it will make their leaders look bad and expose the lies and kickbacks and corruption that have endured over three-and-a-half years of conflict.

Trump should take whatever offer Putin puts forward, tell Europe they're on their own, withdraw all support for Ukraine. The president doesn't need to make a "deal" with Russia. All he has to do is defy the deep state, MIC, Europe, and the Nazi militants in Ukraine. Easier said than done, but wish him luck, anyway.

What befalls America, Ukraine, Russia, and the rest of the world after Friday's outcome will hopefully be better than what has come before. Trump needs to get America out of this situation, lest it continues to its natural conclusions, which are more dead Ukrainians, Russia taking all of Ukraine, and lots of animosity and whining from America's "friends" in Europe.

Most people with brains (PWBs) - a declining population - want the U.S. out of Ukraine. Those who do not have vested interests, like their positions of power (EU leaders), jobs (NATO), graft and kickbacks from military contractors (congress), and the cumulative intelligence of a flea circus (not to demean fleas, but they are pests).

The world waits and watches.

This morning the BLS - ever vigilant at delivering cooked statistics for the Wall Street horde and political wonks - released their findings with the July Producer Price Index, showing:

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.9 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in June and moved up 0.4 percent in May. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended in July, the largest 12-month increase since rising 3.4 percent in February 2025.

Within final demand, more than three-quarters of the broad-based advance in July can be traced to the index for final demand services, which rose 1.1 percent. Prices for final demand goods increased 0.7 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.6 percent in July, the largest increase since rising 0.9 percent in March 2022. For the 12 months ended in July, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.8 percent.

So, was that good news? Bad news which will be interpreted as good news so the Fed can lower interest rates? Utter baloney wrapped in cat detritus? All three?

Apparently, door number two: bad news. Really bad news. Inflation is kicking up, picking up steam. Those tariffs aren't going to cause inflation, none. No siree.

Stock futures dropped like rocks dropped from an overpass. Nearing 9:00 am ET, Dow futures are down 165 points; NASDAQ futures off 105; S&P futures off 25.

The index for final demand services roared up 1.1 percent in July, the largest move higher since rising 1.3 percent in March 2022. Oops. Prices for final demand goods moved up 0.7 percent in July, the largest gain since rising 0.7 percent in January. Double oops. Fruit loops.

It's not all bad, though. These price increases at the producer level will be passed along to consumers who cannot afford them, which has been predicted all along by those snarky PWBs.

Things are going so well that John Deere Co. (DE), makers of farm and lawn and garden equipment reported earnings Thursday morning, sending the stock down seven percent in the pre-market.

The company reported for its three months ended July 27, a profit of $1.29 billion, compared with $1.73 billion a year earlier. Quarterly earnings of $4.75 a share came in ahead of the $4.58 a share that analysts polled by FactSet expected.

That revenue shortfall is a killer. The company says it is due to the large amount of used equipment on the market. Maybe it has something to do with people not capable of shelling out $4,500 for a lawn tractor. The company also lowered guidance and mentioned that they would have to deal with about $500 in tariff-related costs. So, in addition to not selling enough merchandise, the company will be cutting its margins, or passing along those extra costs to consumers, otherwise known as cutting one's own throat.

Peachy ain't the word for it. Something else. Rhymes with "buck."

WTI crude dropped below $63 a barrel this week and was as low as $61.37, due to inventory builds. No surprise that crude oil is at 2 1/2-month lows. God and silver are still down. Meh. Keep stacking.

At the Close, Wednesday, August 13, 2025:
Dow: 44,922.27, +463.66 (+1.04%)
NASDAQ: 21,713.14, +31.24 (+0.14%)
S&P 500: 6,466.58, +20.82 (+0.32%)
NYSE Composite: 20,867.67, +157.95 (+0.76%)

Trump-Putin Meeting May Serve as Catalyst Toward New Stock Market Highs; Gold, Silver Recovering After Trump Signal

Editor's Note: Money Daily may have been a bit hasty to dismiss the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russia President Vladimir Putin. After viewing Tuesday's live Duran podcast with Robert Barnes, a more positive picture comes into focus. The summit, at least according to Barnes and the Duran hosts, appears to have been well-planned and should provide a framework for peace and an "off-ramp" for Trump and America's involvement in the conflict. The entire podcast is embedded below. While doom and gloom outlooks proliferate, they often do not convulse as badly as imagined. Neither should one's hopes get too high on the positive side. We all shall see soon enough.

Current Shiller PE Ratio: 38.80 +0.42 (1.10%) 4:00 PM EDT, Tue Aug 12

Once again, this measure of economic performance stands at the second-highest level in history. In order to achieve any significant memorial in the annals of American enterprise, the S&P 500 needs only to exceed 7,200 this year, which it is likely to do.

Then, the most preposterous valuations of equity markets ever will become a reality from which there is no escape, no excuse, and no apology. It is the only logical place for U.S. stocks to go. Only then, and after the ultimate correction, which is as probable as the sun rising in the east, will there be cause for change in the manner in which the United States - and the rest of the world - operates in financial markets.

The "markets" as they used to be known, serve ultimately the richest of the rich, the upper one percent of the wealthiest interests on the planet. The corporate titans and their multi-million dollar salaries will have their Nirvana, perhaps multiple exogenous experiences that separate them from the rest of the plebeian horde. Why not? It can't get much more horrible than 90 percent of the people in a country impoverished, their wealth stolen by a combination of taxation, theft, extortion, subjugation, and inflation, the most insidious villain of them all. Conditions in various parts of the rest of the world are even more miserable. Europe remains the gold standard for government incompetence at the expense of the masses.

Thankfully, America is large and very dynamic. Financial engineering, tokenization of the currency, surveillance of everything that moves can only go so far. There is a quiet but growing resistance to laws, regulations, the Nanny State, and government in general at all levels. A larger movement is occurring in Washington, D.C.

It may have been in 1962, or 1971, or 2001, or 2008 that people turned their backs on the government of the United States. Whatever the start date is immaterial. It is an ongoing revolution. The current system of debt-based currency and slavish conditions for the general working population are nearing an end. Maybe not today, maybe not even in ten years, but the direction is clear. The system put in place by an irresponsible congress in 1913, establishing the Federal Reserve System and a national income tax - both clearly unconstitutional - are going to end and that end is not likely to be a pleasant one for many. It's probably going to take longer than most people think, so there is still time to make arrangements for the funeral of the U.S. dollar and its hegemonic relationship with the rest of the world.

That said, markets continue to stumble forward. The U.S. economy, a shadow of its former self, is entirely overvalued by the snake oil salesmen of Wall Street and the prostitutes in congress, who have benefitted from it the most. The time draws near for significant change.

The S&P and NASDAQ both set new highs on Tuesday, and futures are pointing to another extremely positive open. Dow futures are up 154 points; NASDAQ futures ahead by 85, and S&P futures are 18 points higher.

Should the meeting between Trump and Putin be a success, expect the stock market to move much higher, especially if the fighting actually ceases. Even if the meeting only establishes a framework for peace in Ukraine, it would serve as a positive development.

Gold and silver are recovering after President Trump posted on social media that gold will not be subject to tariffs, which implies that silver will neither. The White House last week noted that there would be clarification on the tariff status of gold imports. Trump's posting, though completely out of any context may be all that's offered given the frantic conditions in D.C.

Until then, it appears that the only reasonable strategy for the bulk of investors is to buy stocks with both hands.

At the Close, Tuesday, August 12, 2025:
Dow: 44,458.61, +483.52 (+1.10%)
NASDAQ: 21,681.90, +296.50 (+1.39%)
S&P 500: 6,445.76, +72.31 (+1.13%)
NYSE Composite: 20,709.73, +226.57 (+1.11%)

Here's the full, very informative Duran podcast from Tuesday night:

Markets Are Now in Complete Disarray; Higher Inflation Sends Stocks Soaring; Precious Metals Shunned; Peace in Ukraine? Yeah, Sure

On the heels of a solid week of gains, institutional investors took some money off the table Monday, sending stocks to small losses on the major exchanges.

Perhaps looking ahead to Tuesday morning's CPI reading for July, they were probably right in doing so, because when the numbers were announced an hour before the opening bell, the data showed that inflation rose by the most in six months.

The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics - the same government agency that routinely fudges employment numbers in their monthly non-far payroll releases - showed that "core" inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 3.1% over the past year in July, ahead of June's 2.9% increase and an indication that tariffs are indeed causing some upwards price pressure.

Monthly core prices increased 0.3%, also ahead of last month's 0.2% gain, at the highest level in six months. Increases in shelter and food costs were offset only by lower fuel costs as gas prices moderated in July.

This data in no way, shape, or form gives the Federal Reserve any rationale to lower interest rates, as President Trump continues to urge. If anything, the FOMC, at their September meeting may consider raising the federal funds rate to slow down inflation, which has apparently now-reignited.

While interest rates are considered the Fed's most effective weapon in its war against inflation (don't be fooled, they love inflation. Just look at the last 112 years), it's more likely to further strangle the economy, which, according to anecdotal evidence, has been slowing for the better part of a year.

As usual, upon the release of the BLS data, stock futures exploded to the upside, because on Wall Street, any news - good or bad - is a reason to rally. The fact that the CPI data for July was close to expectations does not imply that it was necessarily good, but the horde of traders and speculators that populate lower Manhattan would like retail investors to believe the economy is booming and those higher prices at stores and restaurants are but figments of their overactive imaginations.

What a load of hogwash are these so-called "markets." Should stocks open higher, as the futures are presaging, there's a very good possibility or strong probability that they will reverse course and end lower for a second straight session.

With a half hour until the open, Dow futures are higher by 250 points; NASDAQ futures ahead by 153; and, S&P futures galloping upwards by 36 points.

Interestingly, after being slapped down on Monday in a massive short-selling spree on the COMEX, gold is beginning to show signs of life before the opening bell, down only $4.00 at $3,400. Gold advocates and traders in precious metals are still awaiting word from the administration concerning the recent ruling that 39% tariffs would apply to 1 kilogram and 1000-troy-ounce gold bars, those most-often required for trade and futures gamesmanship.

President Trump signaled on Truth Social yesterday that gold would not be tariffed, but the post fell on deaf ears. Gold did not budge at all, probably because the market now understands that Trump's big mouth and social media posts are meaningless, and more than likely designed only to move markets so that insiders can capitalize.

The messaging is clear as day: "Buy more stocks, people. By no means should anybody buy gold, or, dread, silver. Who needs ancient relics or pet rocks, anyhow?"

Additionally, members of Trump's administration are slowly beginning to walk back the importance of the "conference" with Putin, slated for Friday, somewhere in Alaska. It's a big f--ing state, people. Good chance it won't happen at all, and besides, between neocon influence, Europe's steady recalcitrance, and Zelensky's refusal to accept reality, the chances for any kind of breakthrough are practically nil.

Carry on. Nothing to see here. Absolutely nothing.

At the Close, Monday, August 11, 2025:
Dow: 43,975.09, -200.52 (-0.45%)
NASDAQ: 21,385.40, -64.62 (-0.30%)
S&P 500: 6,373.45, -16.00 (-0.25%)
NYSE Composite: 20,483.16, -41.09 (-0.20%)

WEEKEND WRAP: American Exceptionalism Is Being Measured by Price, Not Value; Gold Bounding; Oil Drops on U.S.-Russia Talk Proposal; the West is Bankrupt

With most of the unwashed masses focused on a meeting this coming Friday in Alaska between President Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin, the instability from Trump's tariffs was interrupted by a sublime sense of calm late in the week.

Those expecting the U.S. President and Russia to make any kind of lasting deal on ending the conflct in Ukraine are likely to be disappointed by this time next week. Neocon and European grumblings have already been received, Zelensky called the proposals "dead", but the mainstream media will continue to push the hope and change rhetoric all the way to the summit, which means that happiness, flower petals, skittle-pooping unicorns, and AI hype is likely to dominate trading and noise in the week ahead.

Stocks aren't yet high enough for anybody to back off or jump off the "America First" bandwagon. Tariffs have just scratched the surface of American exceptionalism, which is soon to be measured by how high prices for manufactured goods, cars, coffee, gold, and many non-essentials can go.

Somebody once said, "a little inflation is a good thing." It was probably some dunce like George W. Bush or other self-absorbed political nitwit. A little inflation being a good thing means two to three percent, which is touted by the Federal Reserve, most all members of congress, presidents dating back to LBJ, and most media commentators doubling or tripling the price every 15 to 20 years, so that after 50 years - that would be 1975 in this case, prices for anything and everything in the United States have at least increased by 10-12 times.

The average sale price of a new car in 1975 was under $5000 in 1975. Today, it's $48,000. A gallon of gas was around 50 cents. Today, $3.13 and up, except in the southeast. A house cost, on average, $42,000. Today, it's 10 times that. A postage stamp was 10 cents in 1973. The USPS just raised the price to 73 cents. In a few years it is sure to be over a dollar. The price of a dozen eggs in 1975 compared to today... don't ask.

America is exceptional in one regard. Exceptionally easy to fool and abuse by the elite governing class. Weimerica approaches.

Stocks

U.S. stocks had a solid week with all the majors sporting gains. The S&P closed Friday just pennies from a new all-time high, while the NASDAQ closed out the week at a record level (21,450.02). Notably, the Dow Jones Industrials and Transports continue to lag, neither making new highs since December 4 for the Dow, and November 25 for the Trannies. Old hat Dow Theory purports that these indices remain in a primary bearish pattern. Effects on the rest of the market are not correlated.

Either investors have cooled on these small indices (the Industrials are only 30 stocks; the transports but 20) or the Magnificent 7 and the NASDAQ are heading in a 1999 direction, straight off the page. It's an odd comparison, similar to the dotcom era "new economy vs. old economy" trope, but the suggestion is that not everything in the U.S. economy is experiencing smooth sailing. The NASDAQ and S&P, in particular, carry some of the most extreme valuations seen since the crash of 2008.

The Shiller PE (CAPE) ended the week at 38.45, just below the October 2011 reading of 38.58, the second highest ever. Considering prospects for end of summer trading to be genuinely positive, the CAPE should continue to approach the bubble levels of the dotcom boom, which peaked at the highest level ever, 44.19, in November 1999.

For the week, Mag7 stocks were led by Apple's 12% gain, but Palantir (PLTR) outshone them all after releasing second quarter earnings with an 18% surge in share price. The company shows trailing earnings of 46 cents, putting this tech darling at a PE of 406, quite speculative, but that's just how Wall Street rolls these days.

Stocks reporting this week will not be among the most important as earnings season for second quarter results is nearly at an end. Here's the short list:

Monday (before open) Barrick (B), Diversified Energy ((DEC); (after close) AMC Entertainment (AMC), Plug Power (PLUG), GoPro (GPRO)

Tuesday (before open) Cardinal Health (CAM), Paysafe (PSFE) Circle Internet Group (CRCL); (after close) CAVA (CAVA), H&R Block (HRB); Zevra Theraputics (ZVRA)

Wednesday (before open) Endeavour Silver (EXK), Innoviz Technologies (INVZ); (after close) Cisco (CSCO), Red Robin (RRGB), Equinox Gold (EQX), Aethlon Medical (AEMD)

Thursday (before open) JD.Com (JD), John Deere (DE), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Birkenstock (BIRK)First Majestic (AG) ; (after close) Applied Materials (AMAT), Sandisk (SNDK), Gambling.com (GAMB)

Friday (before open) VolitionRX (VNRX); BitFuFu (FUFU), Flowers Foods (FLO).

The economic data calendar will be fairly busy with the focus on Tuesday's July CPI and Thursday's PPI. On Wednesday, the weekly EIA report is released with crude and distillate output and U.S. rig counts. Thursday also has weekly unemployment claims before the open.

A load of data drops on Friday, including July Retail Sales, Export Prices, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
07/03/2025	4.35	4.43	4.50	4.42	4.41	4.34	4.07
07/11/2025	4.37	4.39	4.47	4.41	4.42	4.31	4.09
07/18/2025	4.35	4.39	4.46	4.40	4.42	4.30	4.08
07/25/2025	4.37	4.46	4.46	4.42	4.42	4.31	4.09
08/01/2025	4.49	4.46	4.44	4.35	4.30	4.16	3.87
08/08/2025	4.48	4.43	4.39	4.32	4.27	4.15	3.93

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
07/03/2025	3.88	3.84	3.94	4.12	4.35	4.87	4.86
07/11/2025	3.90	3.86	3.99	4.19	4.43	4.96	4.96
07/18/2025	3.88	3.84	3.96	4.18	4.44	4.99	5.00
07/25/2025	3.91	3.86	3.95	4.15	4.40	4.92	4.92
08/01/2025	3.69	3.67	3.77	3.97	4.23	4.79	4.81
08/08/2025	3.76	3.70	3.84	4.03	4.27	4.84	4.85

With everybody jumping back into stocks, Treasury yields declined modestly, the most pronounced a seven basis point move on 2-year and 5-year notes, to 3.76% and 3.84%, respectively.

The spread on 2s-10s remained elevated at +51, while full spectrum widened to +37.

The yield curve remains inverted from 30-days out to 10 years, sloping lower to 3-year notes, then rising from 3.84% on 5-year notes out to 4.85% on the 30-year bond.

Since purchases of treasuries are going to soon be (already happening) done by stablecoins, the entire treasury complex may soon become largely irrelevant, but not until everybody is suckered into the most massive Ponzi scheme ever created.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week near the lows, at $63.35, a loss of nearly $4.00 from last Friday's close of $67.26. Crude's decline was tied primarily to a heavily-publicized meeting between America's President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, scheduled for this coming Friday, the 15th, somewhere in Alaska, though the exact location has yet to be revealed, the purpose of which is to end the conflict in Ukraine with some sort of deal.

Oil's price decline may prove to be very temporary, depending on the outcome of the top-level discussions.

Gas prices have leveled off over the past month and remain near the low end. Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.12, just a penny lower than the past two weeks.

As usual, California has the highest prices in the country, $4.48, up one cent on the week.

Oklahoma ($2.66) has the lowest prices at the pump, followed closely by Mississippi ($2.67). Texas is next at $2.68. South Carolina comes in at $2.76, followed by Tennessee and Alabama at $2.77 on Sunday. Arkansas ($2.78) is lower than North Carolina ($2.86) and Georgia ($2.88), while Florida ($3.02) ia up a dime from last week.

Pennsylvania ($3.23) was a penny cheaper this week, leading the northeast. All northeast states are above $3.00, from New Hampshire ($3.01) to Maryland at $3.16.

Midwest states were topped by Illinois ($3.37), the price dropping seven cents on the week. Kansas ($2.85) is the lowest in the region, followed by North Dakota ($2.86), Missouri and Wisconsin ($2.87). Other states n the region below $3 include Iowa ($2.90), Nebraska ($2.92), South Dakota and Kentucky ($2.93), Ohio ($2.94), Minnesota ($2.95). Indiana s at $3.13 and Michigan the highest in the region at $3.23.

Along with California, Washington ($4.49) is the only other one above $4, as Oregon remained a few cents below, at $3.97. Nevada ($3.73) was up two cents. Arizona ($3.17) is stable, but is still priced more than 30 cents higher than neighboring New Mexico at $2.83. Idaho ($3.53) was up a dime, while Utah ($3.33) was virtually unchanged.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 21 states, equal to last week.

Bitcoin

This week: $118,483.10
Last week: $113,838.20
2 weeks ago: $118,275.80
6 months ago: $96,362.31
One year ago: $60,423.20
Five years ago: $11,860.80

Bitcoin and all crypto coins, alt-coins, and stablecoins are all frauds. So are Federal Reserve Notes, which are basic counterfeit. So, enjoy living in a fake world. See directly below about real money.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 89.80; last week: 92.08

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 7/11: $3,370.30
Gold price 7/18: $3,355.50
Gold price 7/25: $3,338.50
Gold price 8/1: $3,416.00
Gold price 8/8: $3,458.20

Silver price 7/11: $39.08
Silver price 7/18: $38.42
Silver price 7/25: $38.33
Silver price 8/1: $37.10
Silver price 8/8: $38.51

After silver was severely beaten down on the COMEX last week, it recovered some ground, gaining $1.41 per ounce this week. Of course, COMEX prices being about as reliable as BLS employment figures, prices elsewhere in the world, especially on the Shanghai Futures and Metals Exchanges, are at a premium by comparison. Silver actually rose above $41 per ounce in Shanghai on July 27 and closed out this week at $40.05. Comparing the Shanghai price to spot is even more extreme. Spot silver stood at 38.27 at Friday's market close.

In coming months, expect prices for both gold and silver to become less reliant on COMEX and London Fix prices, as the world diverges into BRICS vs. Western economies. Russia's Saint-Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPIMEX) has announced plans to sell gold futures contracts by the end of the year.

Clouding the precious metals complex even further from the normal price-suppression tactics was a tariff announcement from the Trump administration on Thursday (8/7), reclassifying 1 kilogram and 100-troy-ounce Swiss gold bars and placing a 39% tariff on them. Shipments of these standard bars were immediately halted by suppliers as the price on the COMEX shot to record levels over $4500 an ounce.

On Friday, the administration said it would issue a "clarification" in coming days. Reeking of blatant market manipulation, dealers in Swiss bars will not ship to the United States until they're assured of the tariff impact. Previously, those standard bars had been exempt from tariffs. The markets are not fond of disruptions such as this and if the Trump administration continues to toy with price discovery in such a manner, the entire structure of the COMEX and trading on the CME setting global prices will become extinct, which, after all is said and done, would be the preference of most gold and silver advocates.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	38.00	49.62	43.46	42.98
1 oz silver bar:	38.00	51.95	46.28	46.20
1 oz gold coin:	3,460.65	3,686.16	3,560.99	3,542.30
1 oz gold bar:	3,541.93	3,671.07	3,579.47	3,571.23

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose over the course of the week, to $44.73, a gain of 82 cents from the August 3 price of $43.91 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

Prepare. Buy as much gold, silver, ammo, liquor, cigarettes, seeds, gas, and storable food as possible. The levels of stupidity and gullibility have reached epic proportions in the United States. Inflation has not subsided and is not likely to any time soon. Hope is not an investment strategy.

At the Close, Friday, August 8, 2025:
Dow: 44,175.61, +206.97 (+0.47%)
NASDAQ: 21,450.02, +207.32 (+0.98%)
S&P 500: 6,389.45, +49.45 (+0.78%)
NYSE Composite: 20,524.24, +58.50 (+0.29%)

For the Week:
Dow: +587.03 (+1.35%)
NASDAQ: +789.99 (+3.87%)
S&P 500: +151.44 (+2.43%)
NYSE Composite: +256.55 (+1.27%)
Dow Transports: +236.17 (+1.56%)

The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End? Trump Tariffs and the America First Policy Institute; Dow Theory Says Bears are Hungry

Now that President Trump's tariffs have become actively enforced, the question on the minds of macro-oriented investors is whether this marks the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end.

On one hand, having global import tariffs in place suggests that the period of uncertainty that began in April has ended in August and that any further changes in trade policy will be incremental and/or inconsequential.

Peering out over the horizon of the remainder of the second half of 2025 and into 2026, weighing the effects of tariffs on countries exporting to the U.S., the federal government, and U.S. consumers would appear to indicate that of the three, there is only one winner, that being the almighty federal government, which will benefit from increased revenues.

Countries trading with the United States will undoubtedly suffer. From India to Switzerland to Brazil, officials are already bracing for a blow to employment among firms doing business with the U.S. and planning or already implementing policies to shore up affected businesses.

As far as U.S. consumers are concerned, tariffs - despite being told that inflation is close to two percent and tariffs won't raise prices - just about everything and anything that is imported, other than oil and gas, will cost more tomorrow than it did yesterday.

What's troubling about these implications is that while the government will be taking in possibly as much as $300 billion in tariff revenue this year, and maybe up to $500 billion next year, neither the president nor congress has shown any inclination toward controlling their own spending, which also contributes mightily to inflation. Whether the federal government gets its money from individual taxpayers, corporations, or tariffs, they still spend much more than they receive, making the idea that giving them more money will somehow work out towards a reduction in spending look incredibly naive.

Congress will just spend more on defense, social programs, pet projects of senators and house members and other associated nonsense, none of which benefits the American public, which would like to see small business prosper, roads and bridges repaired, and housing becoming more affordable.

None of those things will happen under the current regime and their trade wars, saber rattling, and actual mass destruction of various enemies.

So, this period of time, in which congress is away on a month-long vacation, should be considered the beginning of the end because conditions for average Americans are likely not to improve, but decline further. For those on the lower rungs of the wealth ladder, the poor and destitute, their lives have already become more miserable, with the government imposing work requirements on recipients of SNAP benefits (food stamps). That policy may actually be a blessing in disguise, forcing the terminally-needy to actually earn a living rather than live off the dole.

With more money in the hands of the government and, effectively, less in the hands of the people via inflation, the potential for misuse and mayhem is large. Everybody already knows - or should know - that the federal government and its massive bureaucracy is completely corrupt. The thought that those with their hands already in the cookie jar would stop taking treats now that there's more of them is ludicrous.

At the end of day, individuals will determine public policy, not some wonks at the America First Policy Institute, the non-profit think tank that formulates the president's policy agenda. These people spend their waking hours writing white papers that define and praise their own agendas, dining at the best restaurants in Washington, D.C., all on the dimes of wealthy contributors who fuel their obsessions.

From their perspective, President Trump can do no wrong, and all policy initiatives are spot on, great and wonderful benefits for the prosperity of their contrubutors the American people. Perusing the website linked above should be a duty of all Americans because these are the top-down people and policies shaping the future of America and consequently much of the rest of the world.

The president doesn't make policy. the people at the America First Policy Institute do. If they're right, and have the best interests of the United States and its people top of mind, great. Otherwise, well, we'll just have to wait and see, won't we?

Meanwhile, Wall Street churns along, though from a Dow Theory perspective, stocks are still enjoying what amounts to a sugar rush. after the initial announcement of the tariff policy in April, stocks fell quickly and were only revived when Trump announced a 90-day pause just a week later. Now that the tariffs are actually in place, shouldn't stocks return to those earlier depths. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average are the only two major indices that have failed to make new highs following the April selloff.

What that means in Dow Theory terms is that the primary trend has not changed, and that bear market conditions are still in effect. The transports confirm this in a rather large way. Except for a few days in July, the trannies have been in correction territory since the end of February. With the industrials dipping below 44,000 on Thursday, the stage is set for further losses and possible spillover effects to the S&P and NASDAQ.

So far for the week, through Thursday's close, the scorecard favors the bulls, with the Dow up 380 points, NASDAQ up 592, and the S&P ahead by 102 points.

Stock futures are up, gold and silver are bid after Trump slapped 39% tariffs on gold bars from Switzerland, and WTI crude fell below $64 on Thursday and is now trending lower.

(BTW: Suki, the dog with the tic, is fine. The tic was removed and killed.)

Fun week, huh?

At the Close, Thursday, August 7, 2025:
Dow: 43,968.64, -224.48 (-0.51%)
NASDAQ: 21,242.70, +73.27 (+0.35%)
S&P 500: 6,340.00, -5.06 (-0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 20,465.75, -23.31 (-0.11%)