Current Shiller PE Ratio: 38.80 +0.42 (1.10%) 4:00 PM EDT, Tue Aug 12
Once again, this measure of economic performance stands at the second-highest level in history. In order to achieve any significant memorial in the annals of American enterprise, the S&P 500 needs only to exceed 7,200 this year, which it is likely to do.
Then, the most preposterous valuations of equity markets ever will become a reality from which there is no escape, no excuse, and no apology. It is the only logical place for U.S. stocks to go. Only then, and after the ultimate correction, which is as probable as the sun rising in the east, will there be cause for change in the manner in which the United States - and the rest of the world - operates in financial markets.
The "markets" as they used to be known, serve ultimately the richest of the rich, the upper one percent of the wealthiest interests on the planet. The corporate titans and their multi-million dollar salaries will have their Nirvana, perhaps multiple exogenous experiences that separate them from the rest of the plebeian horde. Why not? It can't get much more horrible than 90 percent of the people in a country impoverished, their wealth stolen by a combination of taxation, theft, extortion, subjugation, and inflation, the most insidious villain of them all. Conditions in various parts of the rest of the world are even more miserable. Europe remains the gold standard for government incompetence at the expense of the masses.
Thankfully, America is large and very dynamic. Financial engineering, tokenization of the currency, surveillance of everything that moves can only go so far. There is a quiet but growing resistance to laws, regulations, the Nanny State, and government in general at all levels. A larger movement is occurring in Washington, D.C.
It may have been in 1962, or 1971, or 2001, or 2008 that people turned their backs on the government of the United States. Whatever the start date is immaterial. It is an ongoing revolution. The current system of debt-based currency and slavish conditions for the general working population are nearing an end. Maybe not today, maybe not even in ten years, but the direction is clear. The system put in place by an irresponsible congress in 1913, establishing the Federal Reserve System and a national income tax - both clearly unconstitutional - are going to end and that end is not likely to be a pleasant one for many. It's probably going to take longer than most people think, so there is still time to make arrangements for the funeral of the U.S. dollar and its hegemonic relationship with the rest of the world.
That said, markets continue to stumble forward. The U.S. economy, a shadow of its former self, is entirely overvalued by the snake oil salesmen of Wall Street and the prostitutes in congress, who have benefitted from it the most. The time draws near for significant change.
The S&P and NASDAQ both set new highs on Tuesday, and futures are pointing to another extremely positive open. Dow futures are up 154 points; NASDAQ futures ahead by 85, and S&P futures are 18 points higher.
Should the meeting between Trump and Putin be a success, expect the stock market to move much higher, especially if the fighting actually ceases. Even if the meeting only establishes a framework for peace in Ukraine, it would serve as a positive development.
Gold and silver are recovering after President Trump posted on social media that gold will not be subject to tariffs, which implies that silver will neither. The White House last week noted that there would be clarification on the tariff status of gold imports. Trump's posting, though completely out of any context may be all that's offered given the frantic conditions in D.C.
Until then, it appears that the only reasonable strategy for the bulk of investors is to buy stocks with both hands.
At the Close, Tuesday, August 12, 2025:
Dow: 44,458.61, +483.52 (+1.10%)
NASDAQ: 21,681.90, +296.50 (+1.39%)
S&P 500: 6,445.76, +72.31 (+1.13%)
NYSE Composite: 20,709.73, +226.57 (+1.11%)
Here's the full, very informative Duran podcast from Tuesday night:
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