On one hand, having global import tariffs in place suggests that the period of uncertainty that began in April has ended in August and that any further changes in trade policy will be incremental and/or inconsequential.
Peering out over the horizon of the remainder of the second half of 2025 and into 2026, weighing the effects of tariffs on countries exporting to the U.S., the federal government, and U.S. consumers would appear to indicate that of the three, there is only one winner, that being the almighty federal government, which will benefit from increased revenues.
Countries trading with the United States will undoubtedly suffer. From India to Switzerland to Brazil, officials are already bracing for a blow to employment among firms doing business with the U.S. and planning or already implementing policies to shore up affected businesses.
As far as U.S. consumers are concerned, tariffs - despite being told that inflation is close to two percent and tariffs won't raise prices - just about everything and anything that is imported, other than oil and gas, will cost more tomorrow than it did yesterday.
What's troubling about these implications is that while the government will be taking in possibly as much as $300 billion in tariff revenue this year, and maybe up to $500 billion next year, neither the president nor congress has shown any inclination toward controlling their own spending, which also contributes mightily to inflation. Whether the federal government gets its money from individual taxpayers, corporations, or tariffs, they still spend much more than they receive, making the idea that giving them more money will somehow work out towards a reduction in spending look incredibly naive.
Congress will just spend more on defense, social programs, pet projects of senators and house members and other associated nonsense, none of which benefits the American public, which would like to see small business prosper, roads and bridges repaired, and housing becoming more affordable.
None of those things will happen under the current regime and their trade wars, saber rattling, and actual mass destruction of various enemies.
So, this period of time, in which congress is away on a month-long vacation, should be considered the beginning of the end because conditions for average Americans are likely not to improve, but decline further. For those on the lower rungs of the wealth ladder, the poor and destitute, their lives have already become more miserable, with the government imposing work requirements on recipients of SNAP benefits (food stamps). That policy may actually be a blessing in disguise, forcing the terminally-needy to actually earn a living rather than live off the dole.
With more money in the hands of the government and, effectively, less in the hands of the people via inflation, the potential for misuse and mayhem is large. Everybody already knows - or should know - that the federal government and its massive bureaucracy is completely corrupt. The thought that those with their hands already in the cookie jar would stop taking treats now that there's more of them is ludicrous.
At the end of day, individuals will determine public policy, not some wonks at the America First Policy Institute, the non-profit think tank that formulates the president's policy agenda. These people spend their waking hours writing white papers that define and praise their own agendas, dining at the best restaurants in Washington, D.C., all on the dimes of wealthy contributors who fuel their obsessions.
From their perspective, President Trump can do no wrong, and all policy initiatives are spot on, great and wonderful benefits for the prosperity of their contrubutors the American people. Perusing the website linked above should be a duty of all Americans because these are the top-down people and policies shaping the future of America and consequently much of the rest of the world.
The president doesn't make policy. the people at the America First Policy Institute do. If they're right, and have the best interests of the United States and its people top of mind, great. Otherwise, well, we'll just have to wait and see, won't we?
Meanwhile, Wall Street churns along, though from a Dow Theory perspective, stocks are still enjoying what amounts to a sugar rush. after the initial announcement of the tariff policy in April, stocks fell quickly and were only revived when Trump announced a 90-day pause just a week later. Now that the tariffs are actually in place, shouldn't stocks return to those earlier depths. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average are the only two major indices that have failed to make new highs following the April selloff.
What that means in Dow Theory terms is that the primary trend has not changed, and that bear market conditions are still in effect. The transports confirm this in a rather large way. Except for a few days in July, the trannies have been in correction territory since the end of February. With the industrials dipping below 44,000 on Thursday, the stage is set for further losses and possible spillover effects to the S&P and NASDAQ.
So far for the week, through Thursday's close, the scorecard favors the bulls, with the Dow up 380 points, NASDAQ up 592, and the S&P ahead by 102 points.
Stock futures are up, gold and silver are bid after Trump slapped 39% tariffs on gold bars from Switzerland, and WTI crude fell below $64 on Thursday and is now trending lower.
(BTW: Suki, the dog with the tic, is fine. The tic was removed and killed.)
Fun week, huh?
At the Close, Thursday, August 7, 2025:
Dow: 43,968.64, -224.48 (-0.51%)
NASDAQ: 21,242.70, +73.27 (+0.35%)
S&P 500: 6,340.00, -5.06 (-0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 20,465.75, -23.31 (-0.11%)
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