Those expecting the U.S. President and Russia to make any kind of lasting deal on ending the conflct in Ukraine are likely to be disappointed by this time next week. Neocon and European grumblings have already been received, Zelensky called the proposals "dead", but the mainstream media will continue to push the hope and change rhetoric all the way to the summit, which means that happiness, flower petals, skittle-pooping unicorns, and AI hype is likely to dominate trading and noise in the week ahead.
Stocks aren't yet high enough for anybody to back off or jump off the "America First" bandwagon. Tariffs have just scratched the surface of American exceptionalism, which is soon to be measured by how high prices for manufactured goods, cars, coffee, gold, and many non-essentials can go.
Somebody once said, "a little inflation is a good thing." It was probably some dunce like George W. Bush or other self-absorbed political nitwit. A little inflation being a good thing means two to three percent, which is touted by the Federal Reserve, most all members of congress, presidents dating back to LBJ, and most media commentators doubling or tripling the price every 15 to 20 years, so that after 50 years - that would be 1975 in this case, prices for anything and everything in the United States have at least increased by 10-12 times.
The average sale price of a new car in 1975 was under $5000 in 1975. Today, it's $48,000. A gallon of gas was around 50 cents. Today, $3.13 and up, except in the southeast. A house cost, on average, $42,000. Today, it's 10 times that. A postage stamp was 10 cents in 1973. The USPS just raised the price to 73 cents. In a few years it is sure to be over a dollar. The price of a dozen eggs in 1975 compared to today... don't ask.
America is exceptional in one regard. Exceptionally easy to fool and abuse by the elite governing class. Weimerica approaches.
Stocks
U.S. stocks had a solid week with all the majors sporting gains. The S&P closed Friday just pennies from a new all-time high, while the NASDAQ closed out the week at a record level (21,450.02). Notably, the Dow Jones Industrials and Transports continue to lag, neither making new highs since December 4 for the Dow, and November 25 for the Trannies. Old hat Dow Theory purports that these indices remain in a primary bearish pattern. Effects on the rest of the market are not correlated.
Either investors have cooled on these small indices (the Industrials are only 30 stocks; the transports but 20) or the Magnificent 7 and the NASDAQ are heading in a 1999 direction, straight off the page. It's an odd comparison, similar to the dotcom era "new economy vs. old economy" trope, but the suggestion is that not everything in the U.S. economy is experiencing smooth sailing. The NASDAQ and S&P, in particular, carry some of the most extreme valuations seen since the crash of 2008.
The Shiller PE (CAPE) ended the week at 38.45, just below the October 2011 reading of 38.58, the second highest ever. Considering prospects for end of summer trading to be genuinely positive, the CAPE should continue to approach the bubble levels of the dotcom boom, which peaked at the highest level ever, 44.19, in November 1999.
For the week, Mag7 stocks were led by Apple's 12% gain, but Palantir (PLTR) outshone them all after releasing second quarter earnings with an 18% surge in share price. The company shows trailing earnings of 46 cents, putting this tech darling at a PE of 406, quite speculative, but that's just how Wall Street rolls these days.
Stocks reporting this week will not be among the most important as earnings season for second quarter results is nearly at an end. Here's the short list:
Monday (before open) Barrick (B), Diversified Energy ((DEC); (after close) AMC Entertainment (AMC), Plug Power (PLUG), GoPro (GPRO)
Tuesday (before open) Cardinal Health (CAM), Paysafe (PSFE) Circle Internet Group (CRCL); (after close) CAVA (CAVA), H&R Block (HRB); Zevra Theraputics (ZVRA)
Wednesday (before open) Endeavour Silver (EXK), Innoviz Technologies (INVZ); (after close) Cisco (CSCO), Red Robin (RRGB), Equinox Gold (EQX), Aethlon Medical (AEMD)
Thursday (before open) JD.Com (JD), John Deere (DE), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Birkenstock (BIRK)First Majestic (AG) ; (after close) Applied Materials (AMAT), Sandisk (SNDK), Gambling.com (GAMB)
Friday (before open) VolitionRX (VNRX); BitFuFu (FUFU), Flowers Foods (FLO).
The economic data calendar will be fairly busy with the focus on Tuesday's July CPI and Thursday's PPI. On Wednesday, the weekly EIA report is released with crude and distillate output and U.S. rig counts. Thursday also has weekly unemployment claims before the open.
A load of data drops on Friday, including July Retail Sales, Export Prices, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 07/03/2025 | 4.35 | 4.43 | 4.50 | 4.42 | 4.41 | 4.34 | 4.07 |
| 07/11/2025 | 4.37 | 4.39 | 4.47 | 4.41 | 4.42 | 4.31 | 4.09 |
| 07/18/2025 | 4.35 | 4.39 | 4.46 | 4.40 | 4.42 | 4.30 | 4.08 |
| 07/25/2025 | 4.37 | 4.46 | 4.46 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.31 | 4.09 |
| 08/01/2025 | 4.49 | 4.46 | 4.44 | 4.35 | 4.30 | 4.16 | 3.87 |
| 08/08/2025 | 4.48 | 4.43 | 4.39 | 4.32 | 4.27 | 4.15 | 3.93 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 07/03/2025 | 3.88 | 3.84 | 3.94 | 4.12 | 4.35 | 4.87 | 4.86 |
| 07/11/2025 | 3.90 | 3.86 | 3.99 | 4.19 | 4.43 | 4.96 | 4.96 |
| 07/18/2025 | 3.88 | 3.84 | 3.96 | 4.18 | 4.44 | 4.99 | 5.00 |
| 07/25/2025 | 3.91 | 3.86 | 3.95 | 4.15 | 4.40 | 4.92 | 4.92 |
| 08/01/2025 | 3.69 | 3.67 | 3.77 | 3.97 | 4.23 | 4.79 | 4.81 |
| 08/08/2025 | 3.76 | 3.70 | 3.84 | 4.03 | 4.27 | 4.84 | 4.85 |
With everybody jumping back into stocks, Treasury yields declined modestly, the most pronounced a seven basis point move on 2-year and 5-year notes, to 3.76% and 3.84%, respectively.
The spread on 2s-10s remained elevated at +51, while full spectrum widened to +37.
The yield curve remains inverted from 30-days out to 10 years, sloping lower to 3-year notes, then rising from 3.84% on 5-year notes out to 4.85% on the 30-year bond.
Since purchases of treasuries are going to soon be (already happening) done by stablecoins, the entire treasury complex may soon become largely irrelevant, but not until everybody is suckered into the most massive Ponzi scheme ever created.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
Oil/Gas
WTI crude oil closed out the week near the lows, at $63.35, a loss of nearly $4.00 from last Friday's close of $67.26. Crude's decline was tied primarily to a heavily-publicized meeting between America's President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, scheduled for this coming Friday, the 15th, somewhere in Alaska, though the exact location has yet to be revealed, the purpose of which is to end the conflict in Ukraine with some sort of deal.
Oil's price decline may prove to be very temporary, depending on the outcome of the top-level discussions.
Gas prices have leveled off over the past month and remain near the low end. Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.12, just a penny lower than the past two weeks.
As usual, California has the highest prices in the country, $4.48, up one cent on the week.
Oklahoma ($2.66) has the lowest prices at the pump, followed closely by Mississippi ($2.67). Texas is next at $2.68. South Carolina comes in at $2.76, followed by Tennessee and Alabama at $2.77 on Sunday. Arkansas ($2.78) is lower than North Carolina ($2.86) and Georgia ($2.88), while Florida ($3.02) ia up a dime from last week.
Pennsylvania ($3.23) was a penny cheaper this week, leading the northeast. All northeast states are above $3.00, from New Hampshire ($3.01) to Maryland at $3.16.
Midwest states were topped by Illinois ($3.37), the price dropping seven cents on the week. Kansas ($2.85) is the lowest in the region, followed by North Dakota ($2.86), Missouri and Wisconsin ($2.87). Other states n the region below $3 include Iowa ($2.90), Nebraska ($2.92), South Dakota and Kentucky ($2.93), Ohio ($2.94), Minnesota ($2.95). Indiana s at $3.13 and Michigan the highest in the region at $3.23.
Along with California, Washington ($4.49) is the only other one above $4, as Oregon remained a few cents below, at $3.97. Nevada ($3.73) was up two cents. Arizona ($3.17) is stable, but is still priced more than 30 cents higher than neighboring New Mexico at $2.83. Idaho ($3.53) was up a dime, while Utah ($3.33) was virtually unchanged.
Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 21 states, equal to last week.
Bitcoin
This week: $118,483.10
Last week: $113,838.20
2 weeks ago: $118,275.80
6 months ago: $96,362.31
One year ago: $60,423.20
Five years ago: $11,860.80
Bitcoin and all crypto coins, alt-coins, and stablecoins are all frauds. So are Federal Reserve Notes, which are basic counterfeit. So, enjoy living in a fake world. See directly below about real money.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 89.80; last week: 92.08
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 7/11: $3,370.30
Gold price 7/18: $3,355.50
Gold price 7/25: $3,338.50
Gold price 8/1: $3,416.00
Gold price 8/8: $3,458.20
Silver price 7/11: $39.08
Silver price 7/18: $38.42
Silver price 7/25: $38.33
Silver price 8/1: $37.10
Silver price 8/8: $38.51
After silver was severely beaten down on the COMEX last week, it recovered some ground, gaining $1.41 per ounce this week. Of course, COMEX prices being about as reliable as BLS employment figures, prices elsewhere in the world, especially on the Shanghai Futures and Metals Exchanges, are at a premium by comparison. Silver actually rose above $41 per ounce in Shanghai on July 27 and closed out this week at $40.05. Comparing the Shanghai price to spot is even more extreme. Spot silver stood at 38.27 at Friday's market close.
In coming months, expect prices for both gold and silver to become less reliant on COMEX and London Fix prices, as the world diverges into BRICS vs. Western economies. Russia's Saint-Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPIMEX) has announced plans to sell gold futures contracts by the end of the year.
Clouding the precious metals complex even further from the normal price-suppression tactics was a tariff announcement from the Trump administration on Thursday (8/7), reclassifying 1 kilogram and 100-troy-ounce Swiss gold bars and placing a 39% tariff on them. Shipments of these standard bars were immediately halted by suppliers as the price on the COMEX shot to record levels over $4500 an ounce.
On Friday, the administration said it would issue a "clarification" in coming days. Reeking of blatant market manipulation, dealers in Swiss bars will not ship to the United States until they're assured of the tariff impact. Previously, those standard bars had been exempt from tariffs. The markets are not fond of disruptions such as this and if the Trump administration continues to toy with price discovery in such a manner, the entire structure of the COMEX and trading on the CME setting global prices will become extinct, which, after all is said and done, would be the preference of most gold and silver advocates.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 38.00 | 49.62 | 43.46 | 42.98 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 38.00 | 51.95 | 46.28 | 46.20 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 3,460.65 | 3,686.16 | 3,560.99 | 3,542.30 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 3,541.93 | 3,671.07 | 3,579.47 | 3,571.23 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose over the course of the week, to $44.73, a gain of 82 cents from the August 3 price of $43.91 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
Prepare. Buy as much gold, silver, ammo, liquor, cigarettes, seeds, gas, and storable food as possible. The levels of stupidity and gullibility have reached epic proportions in the United States. Inflation has not subsided and is not likely to any time soon. Hope is not an investment strategy.
At the Close, Friday, August 8, 2025:
Dow: 44,175.61, +206.97 (+0.47%)
NASDAQ: 21,450.02, +207.32 (+0.98%)
S&P 500: 6,389.45, +49.45 (+0.78%)
NYSE Composite: 20,524.24, +58.50 (+0.29%)
For the Week:
Dow: +587.03 (+1.35%)
NASDAQ: +789.99 (+3.87%)
S&P 500: +151.44 (+2.43%)
NYSE Composite: +256.55 (+1.27%)
Dow Transports: +236.17 (+1.56%)
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