Late night Monday, spot silver hit an all-time high of $53.62. As Monday turned into Tuesday, prices fell to as low as $50.90 in extremely thin trading. At the same time, gold traded at its own all-time high $4,179.60, subsequently beaten down to as low as $4,090.15. The main difference in the two metals' trading was the massive volume in gold, which indicates that it took far more effort to bring down the price of gold by nearly $100 than it did to send silver down some $2.50.
Whenever prices rise as quickly as those of gold and silver have over the past few days and weeks, there's likely to be more than the usual share of speculation responsible for both the rapid advance and quick reversals that are taking place. While precious metals were being whipsawed overnight, the US$ was also gaining, contributing to the feverish trading in gold. Because of the overlayering of global politics, particularly US-China trade tensions, this level of volatility in all markets is likely to be persistent.
Stocks reversed on Monday after Friday's enormous selloff. Both the downdraft Friday and recovery Monday were predicated on tweets or "Truths" from President Trump on social media and little else. Turning to Tuesday's markets, gold has recovered from overnight lows, but silver has not. testing down closer to $50. Traders in London are frantically attempting to bring silver's price back down below $50 in order to assuage fears that London's vaults are nearly empty, which has been the unfolding story for months. The level of skullduggery, lies, and half-truths about silver supply could fill an almanac.
Silver remains the stake striking at the heart of the global economy, its suppression essential to maintaining world economic order and dominion of central banks. According to those in power, silver's real value cannot be exposed to the general public. Since Friday, the public has gotten a glimpse, obviously liked what it saw. With London and New York aghast at this development, every effort was made to plug the leaks in the narrative and assure markets that all was well and that the recent spike was nothing more than an ill-intended short squeeze. That's at least a partial truth and there's probably going to be an even ore concerted effort at squelching silver prices as the drama unfolds.
As the completely bogus government shutdown enters Day 14 it's hardly even news anymore. The Senate continues to pretend they're trying to reach a compromise while failing to vote on a standalone bill to pay both civilian and uniformed military personnel whose next paycheck is supposedly due on Wednesday, October 15 (tomorrow). President Trump, fresh off his victory lap for "ending" the Hamas-Israel war, has instructed War Secretary Pete Hegseth to use "all available funds" to pay the tropps. There are some two million military personnel and about $8 billion sloshing around in the War Department, with another $21 trillion unaccounted for from the day before 9/11/2001, so there should be no problem cutting paychecks.
Monday's snap-back gains were led by tech and financial stocks, with a slew of big banks reporting third quarter earnings Tuesday and Wednesday. Among those already reported Tuesday before the bell are Blackrock (BLK), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citi (C), along with non-financials, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Domino's Pizza (CPZ), Albertsons (ACI), and Ericsson (ERIC).
Briefly, Goldman Sachs (GS) had record revenue, but is trading lower by about three percent. JP Morgan (JPM) is lower by about one percent, but Wells Fargo (WFC) is up four percent pre-market. Citi (C) also reported record revenue, though shares are flat. Blackrock (BLK) is down less than one percent.
Meanwhile, bitcoin is getting smoked, down more than $3,000 approaching its weekend low of $110,000. Stock futures are signalling another major selloff as US-China trade tensions took an ugly turn overnight with China sanctioning five US subsidiearies of a South Korean shipbuilding company and hiking docking fees for US vessels at Chinese ports.
Just before 9:00 am ET Dow futures were down 441, NASDAQ futures off 312, and S&P futures down 67 points.
WTI crude oil is down around $57.65, heading lower.
All this because silver hit $52 an ounce yesterday. How sad.
At the Close, Monday, October 13, 2025:
Dow: 46,067.58, +587.98 (+1.29%)
NASDAQ: 22,694.61, +490.18 (2.21%)
S&P 500: 6,654.72, +102.21 (+1.56%)
NYSE Composite: 21,381.79, +284.88 (+1.35%)
The U.S. government shutdown, which, as of Sunday, is on day 12, is no longer news, because economics has exceeded it in terms of importance.
Americans need to stop beating around the bush and face up to reality.
The U.S. government has failed.
It's no longer a question of whether or not the government is going to fail or when it's going to fail, but rather what are you going to do now that it has failed.
The U.S. federal government is $37.5 trillion in debt. That is a sum of money that will never be repaid in full. The practice of simply "rolling over" expiring obligations with new debt is a privilege that has long been abused. It reveals an unwillingness to make hard decisions for the benefit of the country. Beyond that, congress long ago (1913, roughly) abrogated its authority to regulate currency or money, allowing it to be usurped by the international banking cartel's creation of the Federal Reserve System.
The constitution has been trampled upon by presidents, congress, and judiciary for decades. The country is no longer ruled by laws, but by men and women who do as they please, secure in the knowledge that they will not face consequences for any actions, legal, illegal, or otherwise.
Elections - the important ones, at least - are bought, sold, won, and lost by wealthy people who wield money as power. Even when a person or party wins by popular mandate, they are quickly brought to heel by the powerful special interests in Washington. Nothing ever gets fixed. No bad laws are ever repealed. Few, if any, campaign promises are kept.
The "democracy" that we are told about by the media, that kids are taught about in school, that loud-mouthed, immoral politicians constantly harp about protecting and preserving, does not exist. The federal government, in its functional reality, is a corporation. Senators and members of the House of Representatives are vice presidents or senior managers in charge of the various operations: war, welfare, propaganda, extortion, and control of commerce are their principal interests. The president is a CEO, though the judiciary, principally via the Supreme Court, in its role as a Board of Directors, can effectively overrule executive decisions.
In essence, the U.S. federal government is an oligarchy with patriarcal tendencies. Power is promulgated through generations.
Now that it's understood that the government "of the people, by the people, for the people" is nothing but a false platitude permanently intended to obfuscate the true structure of government, the question Americans need to individually answer is, what am I going to do about it?
Not, what are we going to do about it? There is no "we." There is no assembled opposition. There is not going to be a revolution, or civil war, or any kind of populist movement. The closest Americans have ever come to a united voice for their own liberty in recent years have been the anti-war movement of the 1960s, the "tea party" of the 2010s, and the current MAGA movement, all of which were marginalized by government effort through back-door deals, media slander, and deep state coercion.
Most people are content with doing nothing, going to work, collecting a paycheck from which the government's "cut" is taken out before receipt and hoping for the best. When it turns out that there never will be a "best", that conditions continue to worsen, they're stuck with - if they're lucky - government taking 20-30% of their labor, rent or mortgage another 30-40%, food and energy another 20%, and incidentals the rest, so that by the end of the week, or the month, there's literally nothing left over. Credit cards make up for any shortfall, but that money, at 20-25% or more, has to be repaid. The vast majority of American workers are little more than wage and tax slaves, toiling away on the open-air plantation called America.
For them, there is little recourse, but, that's not a problem since most of them have been so indoctrinated and dumbed-down by the corrosive, compulsory eduction system, they don't know any better.
There may be 10-15% of the population that understands most of this, and maybe that number includes you. So, what are your choices?
Here's the short list:
Leave: A passport costs less than $200, but travel and relocation can be expensive. Beyond the costs, where do you go? Options are limited, since most other countries have problems similar or worse than the U.S.. There are language obstacles, culture shocks, and climate priorities to consider. In the end, it may be easier, less costly, and more practical to stay within the U.S. and move to a state that somewhat has its own house in order.
Make yourself poor: There are considerable benefits to being poor, if you can handle the ins-and-outs of applying for food stamps, rent assistance, energy grants, etc. It's not for everybody, and there's no guarantee that you are approved for various hand-outs or that the government won't just someday cut everybody off (remember, they're broke).
Cheat: Lots of people resort to this. Working off the books, "under the table" so to speak, without reporting income so that you keep everything for yourself. Of course, this approach carries inordinate risks. If you're caught, you may have to pay back taxes, or worse, do some prison time. If you are caught, the government will be watching you forever afterwards. The upside is that you can make a lot of money doing odd jobs, selling stuff, or a variety of other activities, like gig work, without paying Uncle Sugar. There are probably a lot of people who combine #2 (being poor) with #3 (cheating) who do pretty well. While the government may be big and all-seeing, it tends to overlook the small fry.
Play Along: This is what supposedly rational people do. Get a job that pays well, keep expenses down, allocate a portfolio to 40% stocks, 20% fixed income, 30% gold and silver and 10% cash. Not having kids or a wife - or husband - helps. Eschewing many of the niceties of modern life isn't for everybody, but if you can live without the latest iPhone, newer cars, $6 lattes, dining out, plush carpets, and a 72-inch TV and cable plan, you can make this work.
Gamble: With online gambling and individual investment accounts, what could go wrong? Plenty. Most people who take this approach - thinking they can outwit the oddsmakers and/or Wall Street sharks end up in the poor house. (See #2)
Go Off-the-Grid: Finally, there is the option to just give up completely on ever having a reasonable lifestyle, grow a beard, stop bathing, buy some land, solar panels, and a used camper and tough it out in the woods. Grow your own food, hunt, raise goats, sheep, cattle, chickens, etc. Who knows? The government could completely collapse, there could be more war, maybe nuclear, and you'd hardly notice.
Start a Business: Though it's not easy, nor practical, if you plan on running an industrial firm or anything that requires lots of capital, be it in the form of money, labor or material. There's p still plenty of money sloshing around looking for investments, but when it comes to labor or material, inflation is making those more and more expensive. Service businesses are optimal, especially if you have specific skills. Many lawyers, doctors, lumberjacks, carpenters, plumbers, electricians, coders, and other skilled professionals do very well. Tax advantages and expensing of costs are abundant in small business environments. The base requirements for running one's own business boil down to a few simple principles, which include, but are not limited to: not wanting a job, keeping one's own hours, having freedom to do as one pleases, not being tracked every minute of every day, self-discipline, ability to make decisions, being smart and maybe a little cynical, a frugal attitude, persistence, perseverance, and hard work. This, beyond all else, is the ultimate solution. Even if the government is still going to take 21% of your income, that's net, after expenses. Self-employment and entrepreneurship isn't without downsides such as long hours, variable revenue flows, possible government intervention, but how you structure the business is crucial to success.
The Combo Approach: Take what appeals to you from the outlines above, and work out a personal plan or compromise. Being frugal isn't a sin. Your friends may call you a cheapskate, but, while they're paying $2000 a month rent and $600 a month car payment, you own your home outright and drive a used truck that's paid for. Self-awareness and keeping costs down (don't we all wish the government would do this?) are probably the best steps forward anybody can make toward escaping the matrix of a government in chaos and society without guardrails.
Friday's downdraft on the heels of President Trump's tweeting about big tariffs on China sent a few shockwaves up and down the Wall Street spinal cord, but it wasn't anything that wasn't already under consideration. The U.S. and China are about twenty seconds to midnight in terms of blowing each other's brains out, so spiking the tariff ball isn't exactly earth-shattering.
However, there is the distinct feeling that if the U.S. is cut off from Chinese trade, it's going to hurt. Trump has already announced bailouts for soybean farmers who were damaged by his actions against China, which responded by ceasing to buy U.S. soybeans and other crops, instead sourcing from BRICS partner, Brazil.
Farmers, incidentally, especially those of the mega-corporate variety, are heavily subsidized by the government already. Maybe the government should just get out of the agriculture business and let farmers farm (never happen).
The deeper, more dire implications of the U.S.-China trade war are what happens to critical supply chains and supplies of rare earths, which started all this to begin with. Trump's trade policies, in addition to being inflationary, will result in shortages, empty shelves, and, if America is lucky, a greater depression. Think anybody in Washington, D.C. cares about any of this? Only so far as their stock holdings are concerned, and, given the rough sledding on Friday, it's a safe bet that all the Senators and House members who aren't doing anything - because the government is shut down, remember? - were all safely out of the market prior to President Loudmouth's latest Truth Social post.
Will TACO Trump show up on Monday to tell everybody he was only joking? Very possible. But, Monday and Tuesday are likely to be interesting from a trader's perspective. Following a deep dive on Friday, there are usually more than a fair share of nervous Nellies looking to dump out of stocks. Problem is, they can't go to bonds until Tuesday, because the bond market is closed Monday for Columbus Day.
That means they'll either go to cash or... wait for it... GOLD. The CME is open Monday.
Sectors hit the hardest on Friday were tech stocks and the Dow Transports, which was down nearly double, in percentage terms, than the other majors.
Looking at those weeklies, it is striking how uniform the declines are, almost as if they were somewhat predetermined. That kind of symmetry occurs naturally, but not usually in markets run by humans equipped with computers and high-frequency trading tools.
There are any number of analytical and crystal ball forecasts for what happens next week, but few are calling for a crash. Ed Dowd pointed out on X that stock market crashes do not typically occur right after all time highs, suggesting that they usually come after some back-and-forth in markets with some added pain prior to a major drawdown.
The opposite end of the investment spectrum argues that the current climate is unlike that of 1929 or 1987, that the market is actually a gambling parlor that happens to trade stocks and that algorithms are keyed to headlines along with HFTs, so there's the possibility of a Monday Meltdown.
Not taking sides, early birds may want to keep an eye on NIKKEI futures. From current indications, it looks like a global sell-off of wildly overvalued stocks is dead ahead. Far East markets open around 6:00 pm ET. Stay tuned.
Earnings are going to be in focus in the week ahead. Here are some of the more prominent companies reporting third quarter results:
Monday, October 13: (before open) Fastenal (FAST)
Tuesday, October 14: (before open) Blackrock (BLK), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citi (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Domino's Pizza (CPZ), Albertsons (ACI), Ericsson (ERIC); (after close) Equity Bancshares (EQBK)
Wednesday, October 15: (before open) Morgan Stanley (MS), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Citizen's Financial (CFG), First Horizon (FHN), Bank of America (BAC), ASML (ASML), Progressive (PGR), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Abbott Labs (ABT) ; (after close) United Airlines (UAL), Pinnacle Financial (PNFP), Synovus (SNV), J.B. Hunt (JBHT)
Thursday, October 16: (before open) Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Key Bank (KEY), Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Travelers (TRV), Marsh McLennan (MMC), Infosys (INFY); (after close) Bank of the Ozarks (OZK), Simmons Bank (SFNC), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), CSX (CSX)
Friday, October 10: (before open) State Street (STT), American Express (AXP), Fifth Third Bank (FITB), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Truist Financial (TFC), Regions Financial (RF), Comerica (CMA), Ally (ALLY), Schlumberger (SLB).
The Shiller PE (CAPE) closed out the week at 39.09, down from Wednesday's (October 8) 25-year high of 40.32, since the dotcom bubble (Decemebr 1999) 44.14.
BTW: The casino stock market is open Monday, though it is a federal holiday, whether you call it old-school Columbus Day or woke, Indigenous People's Day. Bond markets, however, are closed, according to SIFMA.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
Date
1 Mo
1.5 mo
2 Mo
3 Mo
4 Mo
6 Mo
1 Yr
09/05/2025
4.29
4.24
4.24
4.07
4.05
3.85
3.65
09/12/2025
4.24
4.24
4.20
4.08
4.02
3.83
3.66
09/19/2025
4.19
4.16
4.14
4.03
3.98
3.81
3.60
09/26/2025
4.22
4.20
4.17
4.02
4.00
3.83
3.67
10/03/2025
4.24
4.17
4.11
4.03
3.96
3.82
3.64
10/10/2025
4.19
4.16
4.10
4.02
3.96
3.81
3.60
Date
2 Yr
3 Yr
5 Yr
7 Yr
10 Yr
20 Yr
30 Yr
09/05/2025
3.51
3.48
3.59
3.80
4.10
4.72
4.78
09/12/2025
3.56
3.52
3.63
3.81
4.06
4.65
4.68
09/19/2025
3.57
3.56
3.68
3.88
4.14
4.71
4.75
09/26/2025
3.63
3.66
3.76
3.96
4.20
4.74
4.77
10/03/2025
3.58
3.59
3.72
3.90
4.13
4.69
4.71
10/10/2025
3.52
3.52
3.65
3.83
4.05
4.60
4.63
Friday's stock market mayhem triggered a rally in treasuries, with major moves in long-dated maturities as the week came to an abrupt, unruly close. Treasuries had been fairly stable and dull until Friday, with the moved coming in yields on 10s, 20s and 30s, which were down 8, 9, and 8 basis points, respectively.
Spreads weakened, with 2s-10s falling to +45 from +53, and full spectrum falling to +43 from +47.
What's important to note is that the yield curve, from 2-year notes out, is normal, but short term bills out to 2-year and 3-year notes are sloping in the wrong direction, i.e., inverted. This should be all one needs to know about the direction of the Fed, which is leaning more and more on the dovish side. If there's major stock market carnage - which may be part of the overall plan - Powell might conjure up some fresh funds via an emergency cut of 50 to 100 basis points. It's not like it hasn't happened before, and it will happen again.
If that occurs, bet your bottom dollar the news media will be howling about the recession, about how the government shutdown caused it, and how the government needs to reopen "RIGHT AWAY!"
The level of grift and propaganda has become so overwhelming, it's actually predictable.
WTI crude oil closed out the week at $57.84, down shrply from last week's Friday price of $60.36.
Money Daily has been calling for lower oil prices for at least the past year, and recently saying outright that the 50s were imminent, the reasons being twofold: slack demand and oversupply. It does not take a genius to figure that out. Markets have been in denial about the health of the global economy. It's breaking apart and breaking down. Lies and hope can't keep stocks, prices, and fake currencies up forever
The lower price for crude oil, running counter-cyclical to inflation, may be indicating something deeper and darker.
European economies in the largest countries - Germany France, Italy, England - are on the brink of economic collapse. Energy prices in those countries have nowhere to go but lower, as people essentially go broke just trying to fund everyday needs. While lower prices for crude oil and petrol may offer some relief, it's on the back of a manufacturing slowdown of depression-era proportions.
Nothing like a massive breakdown in oil prices to get a quick response from retail gas stations. U.S. gas prices slumped lower on Sunday, the national average at $3.05, according to Gasbuddy.com.
State-by-state numbers show California bucking the trend coming in a penny higher than last week, at $4.66 per gallon, followed by Washington, down four cents ($4.47). Oregon ($4.09), was also down three cents. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma ($2.51) hitting a seven-month low, followed by Mississippi, Arkansas, and Texas, all at $2.63, followed down by Louisiana ($2.64). The rest of the southern states are all below $2.83, with Florida also following, down sharply, to $2.89.
Most of the Northeast has yet to experience much in the way of relief, though New Hampshire ($2.96), Delaware ($2.96) and Rhode Island ($2.97) remained lower than the rest. Virginia ($2.95), West Virginia ($2.93), and Kentucky ($2.72) moved lower, joined by Ohio ($2.78) and Indiana ($2.85) and Michigan ($2.90). Illinois ($3.20), down 10 cents, is the only midwest state above $3. All midwest states from Wisconsin (lowest, at $2.70), Minnesota, and North Dakota south to Missouri, Kansas, and Colorado ($2.84) are well below $3/gallon. Wyoming joined the party at $2.94.
Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 30 states, up four from last week, concentrated in the South and Midwest with Ohio, Michigan, and Florida below the line, along with Wyoming. The entire Southeast, out to New Mexico ($2.79) is under $3.00 a gallon. Gas in next door neighbor New Mexico is $3.44, making border hops appealing to cost-conscious drivers, though the gap continues to narrow.
Bitcoin
Early Sunday morning, bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $125,178.70. It has backed off some $2000+ dollars since.
This week: $112,895.70
Last week: $122,985.87
2 weeks ago: $109,980.20
6 months ago: $85,434.14
One year ago: $62,717.15
Five years ago: $13,798.80
Bitcoin got clubbed along with the stock market, hitting a low of $110,020 early Sunday. So much for it being a store of value, one of the many indicators for being actual money that it does not share with gold and silver, both of which were higher during the week and did not suffer a drawdown with stocks on Friday.
Year-to-date, bitcoin is up 21%, surpassed by gold (+51%), silver (+61%), and even eBay (+28%).
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 80.35; last week: 81.55
Silver/Gold %: 1.25%; last week: 1.23%
The week saw silver make an historic rise above $50 at spot, reaching an all-time high, albeit for only moments, on Thursday morning before the riggers stepped in and brought it back down. Spot prices were dragged lower, but recovered, wiht the ask at 50.01 at the close on Friday. Silver was in backwardation at the COMEX, with future prices below spot through the week, but the chain itself was magically recified on Friday, as the current December contract is quoted laughably $47.51, and the further out contracts now higher, reaching as high as $49.87 a year out.
Anybody not buying these contracts is completely clueless. Spot prices are going well beyond $50 and, even if there's considation around this level, are likely to exceed $60 by April of 2026. The word got around that London's supply shortage was at a crisis level (almost empty), and silver was rushed via air from the United States. The destruction of London Loco, the LBMA, and the COMEX cannot happen soon enough. There's more than enough news about the long-overdue silver squeeze to fill a week's worht of posts. A few suggestions to get the low-down on what's happened and might soon happen are available from experts on the topic on youtube:
Make sure to search on youtube for Michael Oliver, David Morgan and Craig Hemke. They have amazing insights.
At the end of this post, is a video by Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics discussing the London Silver Short Squeeze.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
Item/Price
Low
High
Average
Median
1 oz silver coin:
52.00
58.00
54.28
53.48
1 oz silver bar:
52.95
59.99
55.58
55.77
1 oz gold coin:
4,087.98
4,333.80
4,214.08
4,195.51
1 oz gold bar:
4,159.15
4,296.15
4,210.42
4,205.32
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) made another new record high since Money Daily began recording in 2020, of $54.78, a healthy gain of $1.40 from the October 3 price of $53.38 per troy ounce.
For newbies, buying silver at $50 an ounce or slightly higher might be worthwhile and only available briefly. Online retailers have prices well above spot, which is unlikely to fall much unless there's a major global recession. Even then, your dollars, yen, euros, or pounds are likely to be worthless. Your silver, otherwise, will have real value.
WEEKEND WRAP
On Thursday, October 9, all hell broke loose when silver broke through $50 on the spot market and threatened $50 on the COMEX. Friday's stock market selloff was the response. The reason silver over $50 is an existential threat to the global cabal of central banks, Western governments, and fiat currencies dates back to 1873, when the U.S. passed the Coinage Act of 1873, de-monetizing silver (Crime of ’73), and, later, in 1964, when silver was taken out of the general currency.
Silver is the stake which strikes through the heart of the banking vampires, who have stolen wealth from the rest of the world for centuries.
If, shortly after 6:00 pm ET Sunday, when markets open in Japan and elsewhere in the East, the carnage spreads and contagion is the result, the global reset will have begun in earnest. While it may not be apparent at first opportunity, nothing other than gold, silver and some real estate will be safe. With Western economies crumbling to ashes, their fiat currencies with them, a global depression cannot be discounted enough.
For those who feel compelled, rewatching "The Big Short" and/or "Margin Call" while drinking heavily may provide at least some, however temporary, relief.
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
As the partial shutdown of the United States Incorporated Municipal Government Shutdown (refer to the Money Dailypost of Friday, October 3, 2025 for more detail.) enters Day 10, it should be apparent to just about anyone that whatever the cabal in the District of Columbia are up to, it isn't having much effect anywhere, except, possibly, in financial markets, which yesterday received a wake-up call courtesy of the price of gold, silver, mining stocks, and backwardation in silver futures versus spot price.
As far as can be discerned, spot silver spiked to an all-time high of $51.24 at 9:10 am ET on Thursday, October 9. Precisely at 9:30 am ET, when the opening bell sounded on Wall Street, the futures price, which was already -$1.60 in backwardation at $49.64, began to plummet, eventually reaching an intraday low of $47.22 by midnight, and then falling to as low as $47.09 at 12:30 am on October 10. Those lows coincided with spot prices just after midnight (October 9-10) at $48.99.
Thus, backwardation had not be corrected (the normal alignment is called contango, with futures prices higher than spot.) and actually extended to -$1.90. This condition should not persist, because futures are generally assumed to be a cost-plus proposition, with buyers willing to pay more for a commodity for future delivery. Time, storage, interest, etc. all go into calculating that future price, which is generally higher the longer out the contract is extended.
For instance, the futures chain for gold, which is relatively consistent, has spot gold around $3,994, with the nearest futures contract at $4,010.90. As the futures chain progresses further out, the price rises, so that March, 2026, is $4,050, and June, 2026, is $4,099. That is normal, orderly contango.
Silver futures are below spot all the way out to September 2026 and they are all over the map. February, 2026 futures are at a laughable $47.88. July futures are a tad more realistic at $48.97, but, still well below spot.
To put this into perspective, ask yourself, if you just bought a 10-ounce bar of silver for $500, and a friend (and not a very good one, at that) came by and offered to buy that very same bar for $478.80 and pay you in February, what would you do?
That is apparently the current condition in the silver market. Vince Lanci explained this in a video on Thursday, suggesting that London vaults have been running dry and the backwardation encourages U.S. vault custodians to sell to London at spot and pocket the arbitraged difference between the futures price and spot, which could be very lucrative at $1.20-$1.60 or more per ounce. If the arbitrage is $1.50 profit, 100 of standard 1000-ounce bars would net out $150,000. However, as Lanci explains, the bullion banks in the U.S. aren't biting. They're holding onto their silver.
It doesn't make any sense if the futures are saying your silver will be worth less in the futures, unless the real signal from silver backwardation is telling the world that a recession is imminent. Otherwise, it's just more manipulation by big money players, generally assumed to be agents of the Federal Reserve or the federal government, most likely at the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), which is, according to information on their own website:
The Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) consists of three types of assets: U.S. dollars, foreign currencies, and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), which is an international reserve asset created by the International Monetary Fund.
The ESF can be used to purchase or sell foreign currencies, to hold U.S. foreign exchange and Special Drawing Rights (SDR) assets, and to provide financing to foreign governments. All operations of the ESF require the explicit authorization of the Secretary of the Treasury ("the Secretary").
The Secretary is responsible for the formulation and implementation of U.S. international monetary and financial policy, including exchange market intervention policy. The ESF helps the Secretary to carry out these responsibilities. By law, the Secretary has considerable discretion in the use of ESF resources.
The legal basis of the ESF is the Gold Reserve Act of 1934. As amended in the late 1970s, the Act provides in part that "the Department of the Treasury has a stabilization fund …Consistent with the obligations of the Government in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on orderly exchange arrangements and an orderly system of exchange rates, the Secretary …, with the approval of the President, may deal in gold, foreign exchange, and other instruments of credit and securities.
Nobody would be the least bit surprised if "the Secretary", Scott Bessent, was instructing his minions at the ESF to do anything and everything they can to keep the price of silver below $50, which might include buying US$ to send the Dollar Index higher, which has an inverse effect on the prices of gold and silver.
Of course, that's just speculation. There could be any number of nefarious actors employed by Western central banks, the World Bank, IMF, etc. Central banks have generally favored gold over silver since 1873, when silver was essentially de-monetized via the Coinage Act of 1873, often referred to as "the Crime of '73".
In the larger scheme of things, bankers and big business interests love gold; individuals and small businesses prefer silver. This debate has been ongoing, behind the scenes, for decades, but, since the government caters to banks and big business (Wall Street), gold is the preferred standard, even though silver is plentiful and was used as currency (coins) as recently as 1964.
So, another question to ask yourself: If silver was MONEY back in 1964, why can't it be MONEY again in 2025?
Well, the obvious answer is because the government won't allow it. They want people to use PAPER in the form of Federal Reserve Notes, issued by the Fed, and basically unconstitutional, granted the power to create U.S. currency out of thin air by the U.S. congress.
But, upon further review, there is absolutely no reason why silver cannot be used as money, other than the government frowns upon the practice. It is going to happen, has already happened, and will continue to happen so long as the government and banking interests insist upon their fiat standards and perform magic tricks in financial markets like they do routinely with silver.
In a word, bankers HATE silver. Absolutely despise it, because it allows ordinary people to have and hold wealth without counter-party risk or obligation. Once an individual has silver in his or her hands, it is theirs and theirs alone and the government, which wants to track every human movement, especially those concerning financial transactions, can't track it.
Those are some of the reasons why silver isn't money. But, other than the government's insistence on keeping it an industrial metal only, there's no reason silver cannot be money. The United States may be a whole lot different than it was in 1964, but the people from 1964, compared to people in 2025, are essentially the same. They breathe air, eat food, walk, talk, and appreciate freedom, social, political, economic, and otherwise. Without silver in circulation as money - and the denial or partial stripping away of other basic rights - they're not economically free, which is why bitcoin has become so popular. Fair warning, however: the current administration, with the full support of congress, has accepted crypto-currency as "the future" of money, via the recently-passed GENIUS Act. The warning is that if the government supports something, it's probably not to your benefit.
There are many issues facing the United States these days, yet the federal government seems interested only in promoting foreign wars, strategically buying up shares of companies (essentially, fascism in real time), and keeping secrets from the American public, which, increasingly, is distrustful of its own government and seeks alternatives. It's not a good look.
The wild action in silver markets offer a sliver of the inner operations of the federal government, which has grown to gargantuan proportions, and today acts like it can do whatever it desires (despite being "shut down"), including imposing its will on states by sending in national guard troops, bailing out other countries, as it did Argentina this week, while prompting war with others, like Venezuela, all without the approval of the American public.
The public is just supposed to go to work, pay their bills and taxes and shut the hell up. Let the government, who knows better about everything, just do what it pleases. Sadly, that's the current attitude, but it's not what made the United States the greatest, most free country in the history of the world. People, not governments, nor presidents, nor bankers, made the United States a great country, and they will again, once silver exceeds $50 an ounce, and is freed from the constraints of government intervention, COMEX price suppression, and the LBMA. It's a tall order, but, those institutions appear to be creaking and cracking under pressure from the physical market and BRICS, especially China.
The physical market is best represented by eBay, which operates a vast open bazaar for bullion, coins, bars, and other valuables. Prices on ebay have fully disregarded the COMEX futures and are following spot prices, though, in reality, the market on eBay is becoming a price-setting mechanism that rivals anything else because it is a physical market with few constraints, those being the fees eBay collects on every transaction. It's a marvelous business. eBay is one of the best-performing stocks of this year, up 45%, despite being down 10% recently.
In effect, because of fees which can range from 10-15% or higher, prices paid on eBay actually support higher silver prices. The sellers have to pay those fees, so, at $50, the seller is only netting out $45 or less. It's the cost of doing business. It's doubtful any sellers, especially those which also operate their own online retail, like Scottsdale Mint, Bullion Exchanges, Apmex, Pinehurst, Ayden, Liberty, and many others, are losing money.
Dealers on eBay - and, on their own sites - are selling silver above $50 an ounce, often well above for quality items, and nowhere near the futures prices of $48 or $49. The COMEX stranglehold on gold and silver pricing is being broken by retailers, individual sellers, and buyers who understand value as opposed to price, and foreign exchanges outside of the London and the U.S..
In a nutshell, that's what ails America. The government wants control; the citizenry wants freedom. Logically, since the citizenry far outnumbers the government and supposedly elects the people who represent them in congress and the presidency, will vote with their wallets and purses, rejecting the slavery of debt-based currency in favor of honest money, gold and silver. The government will have no choice in the matter, though the possibility of confiscation, as they did in 1933 with gold, remains a final option for them.
Price suppression of gold and silver will no longer work.
This time is different.
* * * *
Well, as if the government shutdown wasn't already a major boondoggle, Rep. Jennifer Kiggans (R-VA) introduced, on September 16 (two weeks before the shutdown) The Pay Our Troops Act of 2026, which guarantees pay and allowances for:
Active-duty servicemembers, including members of the Coast Guard and Reserve Components;
Civilian personnel at the Department of Defense and Department of Homeland Security (for the Coast Guard) who directly support servicemembers; and
Contractors providing mission-essential support to servicemembers.
This figures to be a contentious issue, unless members of the Senate realize that they will be demonized as anti-American if they don't support this measure and make sure all military personnel - uniformed and civilian - get their paychecks on October 15. This is yet another reminder that the "shutdown" is completely fake, contrived, and previously agreed-to by Democrats and Republicans alike. The real kicker here is that civilians will get paid if the bill is passed in its current form. That is likely to result in loud protests from the federal employee unions, and possibly trigger a mass walk-out by the 750,000 or so federal employees working without pay. Sir Walter Scott reminds us, "Oh what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive," (Marmion: A Tale of Flodden Field).
Whatever their purpose, all of institutional Washington D.C. is fully behind the shutdown and whatever results stem from it. In the meantime, the government apparently has enough money on hand to buy $20 billion worth of falling Argenitina pesos, ensuring that the hedge funds and billionaires who bought Argentina's bonds get paid. MAGA may now stand for "Make Argentina Grift Again.”
With the unusually buoyant stock markets set to open on Friday to close out the week, stock futures are higher (big surprise), bitcoin, gold, and silver are, for lack of a better term, "meh," and WTI crude is about to head down into the $50s, just before 9:00 am ET, at $60.12 and reeling.
While superficially - which is all the government and media have to offer - everything appears to be functioning normally, behind the scenes is chaos and rising levels of anxiety. The first ten days of the shutdown haven't caused any major disruptions. Next week, when federal employees don't get paid, things may begin to get more interesting.
Finally, and in as kindly a tone as possible, to all governments, just three words: "please go away."
At the Close, Thursday, October 9, 2025:
Dow: 46,358.42, -243.36 (-0.52%)
NASDAQ: 23,024.62, -18.75 (-0.08%)
S&P 500: 6,735.11, -18.61 (-0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 21,548.26, -177.55 (-0.82%)
As if they weren't deserving to be permanently removed as government employees, the IRS announced that roughly half of their staff - about 34,000 people - began to be furloughed on Wednesday. The temporary layoffs mostly affect call center workers, IT employees and HQ paper-pushers. The more relevant agents, auditors, and accountants will be working without pay, for now. Serves them right.
Other than the usual grumblings at airports, nothing has really changed in Washington, D.C., as it's difficult to tell whether the government is actually functioning or not these days. For the most part, when the federal government is officially "open", their roles are usually to point fingers at each other, cause headaches and paperwork for American citizens, jam up whatever business people are trying to run with endless regulations, and skim as much as possible without drawing fire from individuals and businesses while they spend far more than they receive in taxes.
For what it's worth, the federal government should be severely downsized at the vary least. President Trump tried to do that at the beginning of his second term, tasking Elon Musk with the job of running DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency. In the beginning, it sounded great and Musk took the task seriously, but various courts overruled many of Trump's decisions to terminate employees and Musk quit after just a few months, completely disgusted with the process.
It's a sad state of affairs when a billionaire, one known for his business savvy and ability to run private companies with minimal staff, works for free and can't get around the red tape and the courts to complete his work.
While the government is technically shot down - actually just lacking funding through November 21 - President Trump has mumbled about permanently firing laid off workers or not paying them for time worked or not worked during the shutdown. It amounts to mostly bluster and hot air, Trump's specialty. On the other hand, he's promised to pay the military during the shutdown, though that would require a separate bill and the House won't be back in session until Friday at the earliest, so it will probably be Monday to see if any action is taken on that proposal.
Paying the military might be a political football, as anybody voting against it would almost certainly be labeled unpatriotic. However, members of the military, who mostly hang around bases in far-flung locations or right in the United States aren't actively doing much fighting and might be considered by some to be "non-essential." If congress does pass legislation to pay them during the shutdown, it would amount to a slap in the face to the non-military employees who are working without pay. In terms of scoring points, it depends largely on which team is doing the scoring or threatening the other side. From a practical perspective, it's a double-edged sword. From the public's perspective, it's just more nonsense. A government that can't balance its own books and can't agree to how much money they're grifting and borrowing from the public, isn't worth supporting anyway.
Rather than strutting around like prized peacocks, the congress and the president should all be ashamed of themselves. They've managed to overspend to the tune of $37 trillion and now are threatening to shut down various government departments because they don't have enough money.
If the plan was to shame themselves into defaulting on loan obligations and disbanding, that would be one thing, but it's obviously too much to hope for. The elected congress is shameless. Maybe when a few of them can't catch a flight because there are no air-traffic controllers, they might come to their senses.
Since the shutdown is being viewed by Wall Street as simply theater of the absurd, stocks haven't shown any signs of stress. Actually, in most business circles, company executives are the most happy and productive when the government leaves them alone, so, a positive reaction, shuch as has been prevalent since the shutdown began last Wednesday, might not be wrong at all. Getting the government out of the way of doing business would probably add significantly to profit margins and help promote a competitive marketplace. Imagine not having to file endless, useless reports, or paying 15-30% off the top to Uncle Sugar.
As the shutdown continues, Wall Street shrugs along, with the S&P and NASDAQ setting new all-time highs on Wednesday after a slight pullback Tuesday. The SHiller PE (CAPE) closed out at 40.32 Wednesday, chasing the record of 44.19 from the dotcom craze in December 1999 (peak clown world).
Gold crossed the $4,000 Rubicon on Wednesday and has remained above it. Over at the COMEX rigging maching, silver still can't seem to find its way past $49 or $50, though silver is in backwardation presently with futures prices below spot. Normally, in contango, it's the other way around. It's an explosive condition, as the physical market is racing ahead of the controlled futures short-selling gambit that's dominated for the past 50 years. The only fools still shorting silver and gold are the Federal Reserve via their proxies at the bullion banks. They're being ruined on a minute-by-minute basis for resisting the obvious.
Neither gold nor silver is going to retreat any time soon. Perhaps, if the government re-opens, there might be a slight pullback in pricing, but as long as the Fed keeps pumping out fiat paper and the federal government keeps running $2 trillion deficits, the only way precious metals prices are going is up. How high they go depends on the level of emergency printing of money from thin air the Fed deems necessary to keep their 112-year old Ponzi scheme going.
With. a little more than a hlf hour to the opening bell, stock futures are flat-lining, gold has held above $4,000, bouncing around $4,060, with silver gaining, closing in on $49.00. $50 silver is inevitable. Standard sales of one-ounce silver bars and coins on eBay and online retailers are already in excess of $50. American Silver Eagles (ASE) are routinely selling for $52-55 and higher, depending on the mintage and condition. Numismatics are soaring.
A return to honest money seems to be accelerating, but the currency in place - yen, pounds, francs, euros, dollars - has to be almost completely debased before the people on the street demand something better. Until then, expect gold and silver to continue to higher, and probably, much higher, levels. People who were promoting $10,000 gold and triple-digit silver don't seem so extreme right now and they'll be much less reviled over the next few years. Because fiat currencies are backed by nothing, their comparison to gold and silver knows no upward bound. The more that is printed, the more precious metals will cost.
Until it all goes bust.
Like the man asked how it's going, falling from a 100-story skyscraper, "so far, so good."
At the Close, Wednesday, October 8, 2025:
Dow: 46,601.78, -1.20 (-0.00%)
NASDAQ: 23,043.38, +255.01 (+1.12%)
S&P 500: 6,753.72, +39.13 (+0.58%)
NYSE Composite: 21,725.81, +62.71 (+0.29%)
Of the few visible effects from the federal government shutdown - now in Day 8 - none stand out as prominently as flight delays and cancellations at airports across the United States, where air traffic controllers have been in short supply.
Already facing a long-standing shortage of controllers, the FAA continues to monitor the situation as workers call in sick rather than work without pay. It was the air traffic controllers who were responsible for ending the 2018-19 shutdown, when numbers of them began calling in sick as the government standoff reached its fifth week.
This time, having learned from the previous experience, the controllers may be taking swifter action. On Monday, Hollywood Burbank Airport was without any air traffic controllers for six hours. Reports continue to detail flight delays in airports across the country. Newark, Denver, Dallas, Houston, Orlando, Boston, Chicago, Philadelphia, Nashville and elsewhere.
Thus far, neither the Republicans nor Democrats in the Senate have budged, nor has the president. The House remains in recess until March 14 as the airline industry begins to creak. Almost always operating at razor-thin margins, companies such as Delta, United, and Southwest can hardly afford disruptions, especially if the shutdown begins to be measured in weeks instead of days.
For now, there hasn't been much movement in airline stocks, though they began moving lower mid-September. They have enjoyed enormous gains in 2025, with United (UAL) up 72% year-to-date, Delta (DAL) up 57%, and even downtrodden American up 28% for the year.
On Tuesday, investors got a little reminder of just how overvalued stocks are, with all the major indices shedding some froth, though by the session's end, the losses had been minimized.
At the same time, gold breached the $4,000 mark early Tuesday and continued to ramp higher, hitting a high of $4,071 early Wednesday morning. Silver continues to follow dutifully along, reaching $48.83 overnight. Silver stackers are eager for a breakout above $50, though the riggers at the COMEX seem to have other ideas. There are some theories being shopped around that silver cannot be allowed to break though $50, the long-standing psychological high point set by the LBMA, COMEX, and others of the nefarious cult of fiat endorsers.
Suggesting that major banking interests and derivative plays are in danger of being triggered by a silver move above $50. It's probably not as big a deal as some are making it out to be, but the resistance dates back to 1979-80 and 2011, when silver approached the magic number and then fell precipitously from the highs by as much as 80%. The betting is that this time is different, though only those with a cynical attitude toward real money oppose that view. As far back as 1873 silver there has been a sustained effort to demonetize silver and classify it as only and industrial metal with no monetary value. Obviously, that is not the case. Already on ebay and at online precious metals retailers, it's nearly impossible to purchase silver in any quantity at a price below $50 per ounce. The physical market is making a mockery of the COMEX manipulation and, like a coiled spring, once silver breaches $50 to the upside, there may be no turning back.
Just a week into the shutdown, it's beginning to get interesting. There appears to be much more excitement in markets dead ahead.
After all, it is October.
At the Close, Tuesday, October 7, 2025:
Dow: 46,602.98, -91.99 (-0.20%)
NASDAQ: 22,788.36, -153.31 (-0.67%)
S&P 500: 6,714.59, -25.69 (-0.38%)
NYSE Composite: 21,663.10, -101.90 (-0.47%)
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