First Week of Trump's Second Term Appears Positive as He Appears Virtually at World Economic Forum; Stocks Rock; S&P Makes Record

It's been a solid week for stocks, as markets navigated the first week of the second Trump presidency.

Largely devoid of economic data releases, the four-day week, shortened by Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday, was devoted to speculating on how Trump and his economic policies would pan out over the coming months and years. The decision was largely a positive one, the major indices posting sizable gains Tuesday through Thursday.

As of Thursday's close, the Dow was up some 1,077 points on the week, the NASDAQ ahead by 423, and the S&P broke through to a new record close, up by 122 points over the three-day span.

Stock market gains the past two weeks broke out of a downtrend that began in December. All of the majors are up on the year, putting a positive spin on future developments, though it's still too early to call the movement a long-term trend. It appears likely that stocks will continue to bound higher despite lofty valuations. The major U.S. stock indices have been in rally mode since late October of 2023, an uptrend that's been in place for more than 14 months.

Unless there's some dramatic shift or world-altering event occurring on Friday, stocks are poised to close out the week giddy over prospects for the U.S. economy.

In a 46-minute presentation Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump addressed an audience at the World Economic Forum (WEF) and fielded a number of questions from selected panelists.

The tone was extremely cordial, as opposed to the damning, vitriolic rhetoric used to describe Mr. Trump prior to his re-election as president. Apparently, now that Trump has control over the reigns of power, everybody wants to be his friend. It's actually a welcome change, but also somewhat sickening to see the groveling by Euro-centrist promoters who just months ago were pushing climate change, gay and transsexual lifestyles and comparing Trump to Hitler.

What's happened since Trump won the election in November and officially took office on Monday, January 20, is a superficial softening of tones, a rush by elites, billionaires, and leaders of nations to align themselves with the president in hopes that some of his irresistible charisma will rub off on them. It's superficial and disingenuous at best because these same people have been proven over the years to be largely untrustworthy promoters of their own twisted, destructive agendas.

One sees the heads of Google, Amazon, Apple, and Facebook all in attendance at Trump's inauguration. Are people supposed to just forget that these same folks used every technology available to smear, , mislabel, censor, and deride President Trump from the time he began his first campaign in 2015 until he won re-election last year, a decade of underhanded, deceitful, and one may say deplorable misdeeds and dirty politics?

All of a sudden, they're all playing nice. It would be foolish to trust them to do what's right, having done wrong so often, so completely, and so consistently in the past. As with the oligarch class of technocrats, so too the leadership of the EU and most of its nations. It's possible Trump trusts Russia's Vladimir Putin and China's Xi Jinping more completely than he does the likes of Ursula von der Leyen, Emmanuel Macron, or Justin Trudeau.

The unfinished business in Ukraine still needs to be addressed. Trump has intimated that prospects for peace are firmly in Putin's hands, though there's been little to suggest that a ceasefire or peace negotiations are imminent. Russian forces continue to press forward toward the Dnieper river south of Kiev. Control of the Dnieper is paramount as it is the major artery running north to south through the entirety of Ukraine as well as a physical demarkation separating Eastern and Western Ukraine.

Commerce and transit on and around the Dnieper are vital to Ukraine's economy. Russia's intention to control the river and cities adjacent to it is a defining factor in any kind of negotiated settlement to the conflict now approaching three years. Trump has expressed a desire to see the conflict come to an end, but it is a complex matter that will require all sides to make concessions, though Russia holds what amounts to a winning hand.

How the situation in Ukraine is eventually resolved will have long-term effects on world politics for years to come. Leaders in Europe and the UK still have not conceded defeat to the Russians, though it is obvious that they have an upper hand from a military perspective. As events unfold, it's very likely that the desires of European and UK leaders will be swept aside by a peace negotiated between Russia and the United States, mostly on Russian terms.

Trump, a hardened negotiator with decades of experience, knows his position is weak and may possibly concede to Russian demands in order to end the conflict and begin to heal relations between the U.S. and Russia without any input from NATO allies.

With U.S. markets set to open within an hour, Dow futures are down 107 points. NASDAQ and S&P futures are essentially flat. Precious metals bounced higher late Thursday into Friday, with gold reaching within $12 of its all-time high at $2,788. Silver is making up for lost time, currently testing $31.50. The high for the week in silver was $31.68 on Wednesday, so it appears that silver, should it follow gold's move, may end the week at what would amount to the strongest weekend close in more than two months.

Crude oil continues to stubbornly resist tendencies to price lower. After last Friday's close at $77.39, WTI crude dropped to as low as $74.20 late Thursday, but has rebounded Friday morning to just above $75.00. There's good reason to believe that Trump's directive to "drill, baby, drill" will eventually result in lower prices for crude oil, and all refined products, including jet fuels, unleaded gas at the pump, and diesel.

It's been an eventful week, but the lasting effects of new policies and programs coming out of the White House will need time to develop and be digested.

At the Close, Thursday, January 23, 2025:
Dow: 44,565.07, +408.34 (+0.92%)
NASDAQ: 20,053.68, +44.34 (+0.22%)
S&P 500: 6,118.71, +32.34 (+0.53%)
NYSE Composite: 19,978.78, +151.16 (+0.76%)

President Trump to Address WEF Crowd at Davos; American Airlines Projects First Quarter Loss; Beware Stock Hucksters

Stocks kept the momentum going on Wednesday, the S&P posting a third straight day on the uptick.

However, the S&P fell just short of making a new record close. While it traded above 6,090 much of the day, the last half hour of the session saw serious selling. Thursday morning's stock futures aren't holding out much hope for a rebound. The post-inauguration high seems to be fading, which would make sense. Not a lot of what President Trump has done in his first three days in office have been particularly stock market favorable. If anything, Trump's first few days might be best characterized as "stock market neutral."

Markets are still unaware of what Trump's trade and economic policies will encompass. He's been fairly tight-lipped this first week of his presidency about China, Canada, tariffs, and a host of other issues. Perhaps today's speech to the assembled liberal hangovers at the WEF in Davos will provide some clues.

According to Axios and other sources, President Trump will address the World Economic Forum via a virtual broadcast today, Thursday, January 23rd, at 5:00 pm Davos time.

Since Davos, Switzerland is six hours ahead of the U.S. in terms of time zones, Trump's address should begin at 11:00 am ET. That's likely to cause markets to slow roll the morning and react to anything the President might say that has impact, but it's more likely that Trump's speech will be mostly rhetorical and devoid of actionable detail. It would be nice if he chided the globe-trotting snobs at WEF over some of their policies concerning Ukraine, the climate change scam, high taxes, and disregard for the rule of law, especially concerning elections. Should be interesting.

Outside of President Trump making headlines, a few companies have reported earnings this morning. Maybe the most notable was American Airlines (AAL), which, reported adjusted earnings per share of 86 cents, excluding nonrecurring items, up from 29 cents a share from a year ago. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were looking for earnings of 66 cents a share.

Revenue grew to $13.7 billion from $13.06 billion in the same period last year, but the stock is getting slaughtered in pre-market trading, down more than five percent after the company projected a first quarter loss of 20 to 40 cents per share.

A half hour before the open, stock futures are trending lower, with NASDAQ futures holding below -100 points, though Dow futures are sporting a modest gain. Gold and silver are down (big surprise!), oil continues to slowly leak lower, and bitcoin has also lost momentum, trading between $101,000 and $102,500.

At the Close, Wednesday, January 22, 2024:
Dow: 44,156.73, +130.92 (+0.30%)
NASDAQ: 20,009.34, +252.56 (+1.28%)
S&P 500: 6,086.37, +37.13 (+0.61%)
NYSE Composite: 19,827.62, -65.97 (-0.33%)

Today's note to the wise: Beware of bubble-era stock touters, because, in bubbles, practically anybody can find stocks that are going to go up, even crackpots like Nick Giambruno.

Here are some specific stock recommendations made by Nick Giambruno over the past few years:

One of his top picks in the Bitcoin mining sector is Hive Blockchain Technologies Ltd. (HIVE). He has highlighted this stock for its potential to outperform Bitcoin itself. Well, it hasn't. In 2021, HIVE hit a high over $26 per share. It's currently trading under $4.00.

Uranium Stocks: Giambruno recommended Ur-Energy Inc. (URG) as a potential investment in the uranium sector, anticipating a new bull market. URG is a penny stock. It peaked at $2.00 in February, 2024 and is currently trading at $1.23.

Marijuana Stocks: In 2018, Giambruno suggested investing in Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC), which he referred to as the "Amazon of Pot." It's not. Giambruno must have been smoking some good stuff. CGC rocketed to $429 in February, 2021. Today it's trading for $2.23.

Defense Supplier Stocks: In 2019, he recommended Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (KTOS), predicting significant growth due to trade war tensions. In 2019, KTOS traded between $14 and $22 per share. In 2020, it fell to as low as $10, and today is above $34. Giambruno actually did OK with this one, but what stocks haven't doubled since 2020?

Nick expects people to shell out a lot of money for monthly picks. He probably gets a few suckers a month to pony up, whch pays the bills and keeps his name out there. Overall, however, he's got no more insight on stocks than the average sixth-grader. Essentially, he's a fraud, and there are many others out there, just itching to get at your money. Don't do it. Educated yourself and make your own choices.

Here's a bit of Giambruno's pitch:

Financial Underground: SPECULATOR

$2,499.00 / year

Financial Underground: SPECULATOR is our premium investment research publication.

At Financial Underground: SPECULATOR, we find lucrative investment opportunities in overlooked and misunderstood markets. We specialize in uncovering unstoppable trends ahead of the crowd and getting positioned for outsized profits.

Every month, renowned speculator and international investor Nick Giambruno will send you a new issue delivered to your email inbox.

It’s a perspective you won’t find anywhere else - certainly not in the mainstream financial media nor any other financial newsletter or research publication.

In short, we are more interested in getting the Big Picture right than gambling with short-term trades in rigged markets.

What a crock.

Stocks Boom on Trump Inauguration, 3M, Charles Schwab Earnings; Netflix Earnings Blow Away Estimates; UAL, COF In Play

With markets closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, stock pickers were able to get an in-depth look at the inauguration and first day of Donald Trump's presidency, which included signing of fifty executive orders, various firings and the beginning of mass arrests and eventual deportations of illegal aliens in the U.S.

Having a full day to digest the proceedings in the nation's capital provided Wall Street with a solid understanding of what Trump dubbed, "America's Golden Age", and took little time to capitalize on the good vibes coming out of Washington, D.C.

Helping fuel the rally were earnings reports from a number of important companies, key among them 3M (MMM), which posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.68, beating estimates. The company also announced that it's restructuring plan was nearly complete. Shares were up more than four percent on the day, hitting its highest level in three years.

Capital One (COF) showed profits rising by 55% in the fourth quarter from a year ago. Their interest income growing as more consumers use credit cards issued by the company at nose-bleed interest rates, some as high as 30% or more.

Stock brokerage Charles Schwab (SCHW) posted better-than-expected results on higher asset management fees and a surge in trading volume. The company's stock was up sharply from Friday's close.

Adding to the excitement Wednesday morning were spectacular earnings reports from Netflix (NFLX), which announced Tuesday morning EPS of $4.27 for the fourth quarter, above consensus expectations of $4.18 and more than double the $2.11 EPS figure it reported in the year-ago period. Shares of the streaming service are up 14% in pre-market trading.

United Airlines (UAL) and CapitalOne (COF) also posted strong fourth quarter and full year results prior to the open, sending stock futures skyward. Dow futures are trending up about 160 points, NASDAQ futures sporting a gain of more than 200 points. S&P futures are ahead by 32 points. The S&P is at its highest level in a month, closing in on its all-time record close of 6,090.27 from December 6, 2024.

Bitcoin hit above $108,000 on Tuesday before pulling back to above $104,000. Gold is approaching its own record level, hovering around $2,770. Silver continues a laggard, though it is trending above $31/ounce. WTI crude oil ($75.69) got smacked down on Trump's enthusiastic massaging to "Drill, baby, drill."

Golden Age, indeed.

At the Close, Tuesday, January 21, 2025:
Dow: 44,025.81, +537.98 (+1.24%)
NASDAQ: 19,756.78, +126.58 (+0.64%)
S&P 500: 6,049.24, +52.58 (+0.88%)
NYSE Composite: 19,893.59, +286.22 (+1.46%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Bank Earnings, CPI Tea Leaves Lead Stock Rally; Oil Continues to Climb as Trump Inauguration Approaches

Stocks jumped the gun on the inauguration with a big week highlighted by CPI from December and bank earnings from the likes of Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup.

Big banks appear to be on solid footing with deposits growing and increased M&A activity. Wall Street cheered itself for undercutting inflation forecasts, spurring a wild Wednesday romp with more carryover effects Friday.

Stocks

Stocks turned in their best week since November, putting January solidly back in positive territory after some early new year jitters. The Dow and NYSE Composite out-performed the S&P and NASDAQ, though all the majors were markedly higher with Wednesday's big rally taking a day off Thursday before returning with gusto on Friday.

After two straight years of gains and a new sheriff in town (Trump), Wall Street is desperate to keep the punch bowl filled at all costs. There are uncertainties aplenty, which brings into question the wisdom of big gains just prior to expectations for big changes. Normally, as was demonstrable earlier in January, the stock market hates uncertainty. This week's rally may have been something on the order of a bull trap or a condition of "buy the rumor, sell the news." The coming week will provide more clues to the general direction of stocks, both near and long term.

Earnings will be highlighted in the coming week. After the nation's largest banks turned in solid fourth quarters, traders are expected good things through first quarter earnings season, with the bulk of publicly-owned companies reporting over the next three weeks. With Monday a national holiday (Martin Luther King Day), markets will be shuttered Monday. The big names to watch for earnings releases this week are the following:

Tuesday: CapitalOne (COF), 3M (MMM), Zions Bancorporation (ZION), DR Horton (DHI), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Netflix (NFLX), United Airlines (UAL)

Wednesday: Discover (DFS), Alcoa (AA), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Abbot Labs (ABT), Halliburton (HAL), Ally Bank (ALLY), Proctor & Gamble (PG), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Travelers (TRV), Comerica (CMA)

Thursday: American Airlines (AAL), CSX (CXS), McCormick (MKC), Union Pacific (UNP), Covenant Health (CVLG), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

Friday: Ericsson (ERIC), Verizon (VZ), American Express (AXP)

The data calendar is light. Trump's Executive Orders and proclamations from the Oval Office will be the huge focus for the week and probably for many more weeks ahead.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
12/13/2024	4.43	4.43	4.34	4.36	4.32	4.24
12/20/2024	4.43	4.42	4.34	4.35	4.29	4.27
12/27/2024	4.44	4.43	4.31	4.35	4.29	4.20
01/03/2025	4.44	4.35	4.34	4.31	4.25	4.18
01/10/2025	4.42	4.35	4.36	4.33	4.27	4.25
01/17/2025	4.43	4.35	4.34	4.32	4.28	4.21

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
12/13/2024	4.25	4.21	4.25	4.33	4.40	4.69	4.61
12/20/2024	4.30	4.32	4.37	4.45	4.52	4.79	4.72
12/27/2024	4.31	4.36	4.45	4.53	4.62	4.89	4.82
01/03/2025	4.28	4.32	4.41	4.51	4.60	4.88	4.82
01/10/2025	4.40	4.46	4.59	4.70	4.77	5.04	4.96
01/17/2025	4.27	4.33	4.42	4.52	4.61	4.91	4.84

After rising by roughly one percent from when the Fed began lowering the federal funds target rate in September, 2024, longer maturities (2 years out to 30 years) began to backtrack after December CPI showed the core falling short of expectations, even though headline year-over-year CPI has risen the last three months, from 2.4% in September, to 2.6% in October, 2.7% in November, and the latest, 2.9% for December.

Wall Street sorely needs January to come in positive, bolstering the concept that January presages the market for the rest of the year. Thus, analysts and stock-pumpers cherry-picked the CPI number, finding one that they liked, ignoring the undeniable fact - provided by their very own number-fudgers at the BLS - that inflation continues to rise overall. Prices are not coming down; they're only rising at a slower pace than recently.

It needs to be pointed out that the Fed's ill-advised 100 basis points worth of cuts in September, November, and December, had the expected effect of causing price increases on most goods and services. The Fed, trapped as it is, continues to try to walk the tightrope between keeping the economy chugging along and keeping prices under control. They're actually failing at both.

With Trump readying tariffs on almost anything that is imported into the U.S., the Fed and their Wall Street banking cohorts continue to pedal the lie that inflation is under control and the economy is strong. The next three to six months will provide evidence as to whether they are right or lying through clenched teeth.

Spreads contracted, with 2s-10s dropping three basis points, and full spectrum (30 days out to 30 years) flattening by 13 basis points, from +54 to +41 over the course of the week.

As with stocks, there was some racing to get ahead of the pack prior to the completion of presidential transition on Monday. Whether they were prescient or just plucky will begin to become clear within the first 10 days of Trump's administration.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1.17: +34

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil continued to ride higher, finishing out the week at $77.37, up from $75.70 the prior Friday, the fourth straight week of rising price action. Wednesday's CPI reading from December produced most of the rally, hitting a high of $79.14 before backing off Thursday and Friday.

This week's jump in oil futures sent oil prices closer to summer levels that peaked above $82/barrel. How well this pric action continues to hold after Monday's inauguration of Donald J. Trump and his "drill, baby, drill" mantra is largely dependent on press attitudes and what comes off the president's desk his first week back in the Oval Office. With a heavy agenda, oil may be left to its own accord, though Trump is very likely to issue Executive Orders to reverse much of what the Biden White House destroyed of oil and capital markets the past four years.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump up seven cents from last week, checking in at $3.12 a gallon Sunday morning.

California continues to be the national price leader, at $4.41 a gallon.

Pennsylvania prices jumped eight cents, at $3.34, with the Keystone State the price leader in the Northeast. New York saw a slightly smaller change, at $3.14. Connecticut ($3.07) was up slightly while Massachusetts ($3.01) was higher by just three cents, returning back above the $3.00 threshold. Maryland prices jacked higher by 22 cents, at $3.32.

Illinois advanced only two cents, to $3.24. Ohio (#3.11) and Indiana ($3.10) again returned back above $3.00 after just one week below.

Mississippi took over as low price leader, snatching the crown from Oklahoma with a price of $2.65, while the Sooner State came in at $2.67. Following are Texas ($2.69), Arkansas ($2.70), and Louisiana ($2.71). Those are followed by Alabama ($2.77), Tennessee ($2.78), Kansas ($2.80), and South Carolina ($2.81). Florida's was up seven cents, at $3.18, Georgia crept closer to $3, showing $2.95 this weekend.

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in only 28 U.S. states. The Northeast and West coast remain largely over-$3.00 holdouts.

Arizona ($3.11) was up eight cents from a week ago. Oregon showed prices higher, at $3.49, Nevada at $3.62, and Washington at $3.90, leaving only California above $4.00. Utah ($2.97) and Idaho ($3.01) were both lower for the week.

Bitcoin

This week: $105,074.80
Last week: $94,640.44
2 weeks ago: $97,453.01
6 months ago: $66,693.20
One year ago: $41,705.26
Five years ago: $9,895.13

Bitcoin moved higher again this week, promoted by some reporting that the incoming Trump administration plans on removing many of the regulations surrounding crypto ownership. With changes afoot at the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the idea is that with an administration's full embrace of crypto's potential, the United States will become the de facto leader of crypto adoption. In many ways, it already is, though that doesn't prevent the usual suspects from pushing their agenda to extremes, including the concept of the U.S. establishing a "bitcoin reserve". While the idea of the U.S. government becoming huge hodlers of vaporware currency appeals to the baser instincts of the crypto future crowd, it remains to be seen what the U.S. government plans on doing with its money in the face of exploding national debt and a debased currency. Establishing a new currency standard isn't something the world would take lightly. Basing one on currency that is ethereal, but also highly traceable, as bitcoin and most other cryptos are, seems to be quite the canard, an unworkable direction that leads, ultimately to anathema of the crypto universe, CBDCs. Crypto adherents had better not hope to hard, because they might get exactly what they want, with unexpected attachments and unwieldy consequences.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 88.24; last week: 86.82

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 12/20: $2,640.50
Gold price 12/27: $2,636.50
Gold price 1/5: $2,652.70
Gold price 1/12: $2,717.40
Gold price 1/19: $2,740.00

Silver price 12/20: $30.08
Silver price 12/27: $29.98
Silver price 1/5: $30.10
Silver price 1/12: $31.30
Silver price 1/19: $31.05

Gold continued it's upside momentum, while silver made impressive gains Wednesday, only to give the bulk of them back, and then some, Thursday and Friday.

Judging by activity on eBay, a silver mania is developing, with small fry (average Joes and Janes) evidencing a propensity to throw caution to the wind as they continue stacking and saving for the future and against the corrupt fiat regime they clearly see faltering on multiple fronts, not the least of which are inflation (money creation, currency debasement) and the threat from BRICS in the formation of a global financial duopoly with the U.S. dollar - and by extension, the euro, yen, and pound - taking a beating.

Even though stocks had a very good week and are tracking towards a positive bent to the important month of January, precious metals have not backed down much from autumn 2024's highs. Gold is clearly fetching over $2,800 on one-ounce pieces and much higher on a per-ounce basis on fractional coins and bars. Silver, at least near term, has avoided further price deterioration and shortages continue to mount. COMEX prices are one thing. Buying coins and bars at $10 or more over spot indicates a large and growing cohort seeking relief and better accounting for what determines wealth and value.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	34.99	49.99	43.24	42.44
1 oz silver bar:	36.96	47.95	41.37	40.58
1 oz gold coin:	2,818.10	2,912.22	2,863.58	2,869.90
1 oz gold bar:	2,812.38	2,888.37	2,835.72	2,824.61

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose moderately, to $41.91, an increase of 64 cents from the January 12 price of $41.27 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

One more day. Will the nightmare of the last four years vanish in an instant or will there be continued pushback from the open borders, DEI non-conformists as there was in Trump's first term?

Hope against hope that the former is the case, but, knowing the depth of depravity that dwells within the deep state, the latter seems more likely.

At the Close, Friday, January 10, 2025:
Dow: 43,487.83, +334.70 (+0.78%)

NASDAQ: 19,630.20, +291.91 (+1.51%)
S&P 500: 5,996.66, +59.32 (+1.00%)
NYSE Composite: 19,607.37, +58.74 (+0.30%)

For the Week:
Dow: +1549.38 (+3.69%)
NASDAQ: +468.57 (+2.45%)
S&P 500: +169.62 (+2.91%)
NYSE Composite: +644.36 (+3.40%)
Dow Transports: +507.84 (+3.19%)

Trump Inauguration Looming, Stocks Ready to Close Out Week of Big Gains; Bitcoin Moves Past $100,000 Again; Gold, Silver Lower

Stocks took a step back on Thursday, failing to extend the "inflation is defeated" rally from Wednesday on the back of sketchy CPI data which showed Y-O-Y CPI increasing from 2.7% in October, to 2.8% in November, to 2.9% in December. All Wall Street seemed to care about was core CPI, which fell slightly.

With futures soaring pre-market, the Street appears ready to resume "buy everything" mode. The morning's upside can be traced to animal spirits, an announcement by the IMF, which said it raised its growth forecast for the United States to 2.7% for 2025, and a few more earnings beats.

Stocks appear set for a banner week, with the Dow up 1214 points through Thursday's closing bell. NASDAQ is up 176, S&P 500 ahead by 110 on the week.

Bitcoin has rallied all week and is once again above $100,000, nearly hitting $103,000 early Friday. Of course, gold and silver are lower.

This market has a unique tendency to celebrate itself, no matter the economic data or real world conditions. However, Thursday saw the return of that nasty bear market chart pattern of being up early and down late. Sometimes - and on Wall Street - it's nearly all the time, the obvious signal gets lost in the noise, and this is a very noise market.

Happy Weekend! If the world survives the weekend, Donald J. Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th President of the United states on Monday. Fingers crossed.

At the Close, Thursday, Janaury 16, 2025:
Dow: 43,153.13, -68.42 (-0.16%)
NASDAQ: 19,338.29, -172.95 (-0.89%)
S&P 500: 5,937.34, -12.57 (-0.21%)
NYSE Composite: 19,548.63, +125.92 (+0.65%)

Stocks Rallied Hard Wednesday on Bank Earnings and Mild CPI; Thursday Setting Up a Bit More Calm; Gold, Silver, Oil Also Big Winners

Earnings for the biggest U.S. banks continue to roll out with positive results for the fourth quarter of 2024. Thursday morning saw reports from Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC (PNC), and US Bankcor (USB), all of which featured earnings beats and generally glowing quarterly results.

Despite the positive news in the financial sector, banks which reported this morning haven't quite caught fire with traders. Bank of America is flat pre-market, US Bancor actually missed EPS estimates and is down 2.5%, and PNC, despite a huge beat, is down around three percent, roughly the same as it was up during yesterday's rally. Morgan Stanley is up more than two percent prior to the open.

Taiwan Semi (TSM) is getting good vibes after another knockout quarter, setting new records with a 57% profit surge to $11.4 billion and a 39% revenue hike to $26.88 billion. Shares are boosted more than five percent an hour prior to the opening bell. United Health (UNH) beat on the earnings side, but revenues took a hit. The stock is being punished to the tune of a four percent decline.

Retail sales for December were modest, up 0.4%, and up 3.9 percent from December 2023. Total sales 2024 were up 3.0 percent from 2023 according to the U.S. Census Bureau, which supplied the report.

There might be some hangover from Wednesday's surge in stock prices. Futures have been trending down most of the morning, with Dow futures in the red by more than 100 points. S&P and NASDAQ futures are clinging to small gains after the retail sales report didn't move the needle much.

The big winners Wednesday outside of stocks were crude oil, gold, and silver. WTI crude hit a high of $79.15 just as the stock market closed and has dipped back down to $78.40. Gold advanced through the day Wednesday, starting from a low of $2,673.80 to close out in New York at $2,722.20 and is moving higher Thursday morning, at $2,742.50. That's a $69 move in just more than a day on the COMEX. Silver's move was even more pronounced, starting from a low of $30.20 at 12:30 am ET Wednesday, this morning topping out at $31.98.

Bond traders got some relief from the dovish inflation figures, sending note yields lower. The benchmark 10-year yield dropped from 4.78% to 4.66%, and the drops on shorter maturities (2-year out to 7-year) were in the same ballpark, the 7-year falling by 15 basis points.

It remains to be seen if Wednesday's big move in stocks will carry over to the rest of the week. From the looks of the futures, the rally appears to have lost some of its mojo. There's still some apprehension concerning the regime change in Washington to take place on Monday. Biden out, Trump in, seems like a no-brainer, but those with less itchy trading fingers may still be taking a wait-and-see approach.

Thursday, Friday and most of Monday remain under the inauguration cloud. With CPI out of the way and the upcoming FOMC meeting likely to produce a pause in the rate cutting rigamarole, things could calm down a bit.

Thursday's rally did manage to put the majors back on a positive footing for January, but they remain below levels from early December. There's still time to get stocks moving forward and put a positive spin on January, which would be important as many a trader believes that the first month foreshadows the rest of the year.

At the Close, Wednesday, January 15, 2025:
Dow: 43,221.55, +703.27 (+1.65%)
NASDAQ: 19,511.23, +466.84, (+2.45%)
S&P 500: 5,949.91, +107.00, (+1.83%)
NYSE Composite: 19,422.71, +246.06 (+1.28%)

December CPI at 0.4%, 2.9% Rise Year-over-Year is Cause for Celebration on Wall Street; Futures Soar; Oil at 4-Month High

With the inauguration of President Trump less than a week away, there was no lack of gamesmanship and late-day tape-painting in financial markets Tuesday.

The repetitive bearish chart pattern of the major indices opening higher and stumbling lower throughout the session prevailed again on Tuesday. The Dow was the lone survivor, ending the day with gains beyond the gap-up open. Though the S&P posted an insignificant gain, it spent much of the session in negative territory. The NASDAQ was bruised, the 41-point gain overshadowed by new intra-day lows at 18,926.60. It was off more than 150 points just 45 minutes prior to the closing bell. Market riggers furiously bought shares and covered shorts in the final minutes anticipating another boost to the futures when December CPI figures are released Wendesday morning.

Those who bought up NASDAQ and Dow shares into Tuesday's close were on the right track. Just after 8:00 am ET, NASDAQ futures were up more than 80 points, but the Dow was flying higher, adding more than 200 (+0.48%).

Following the PPI figures on Tuesday which beat expectations (lower than forecast), there seemed ot be little in the way of anxiety over the CPI. Fuel prices were sure to cause a bump, but investors appeared confident that the numbers would not upset the status quo, in the belief that the Fed had done enough to quell the inflation beast and might possibly continue lowering rates later in the year. Hopes for a fourth straight rate cut have been dashed due to last week's December Non-farm Payroll data, which came in stronger than anticipated, with 256,000 new jobs minted in the final month of 2024.

Despite the knowledge that the BLS numbers are almost always wrong and subject to revisions, Wall Street gamblers rely upon them nonetheless in making trades, just another example of mal-investment and wild speculation based on faulty assumptions. Wall Street continues to trend overwhelmingly bullish, despite recent losses on all of the major indices. Since early December, stocks have been under pressure. The vaunted Santa Claus rally never materialized, yet the lower Manhattan crowd still buys into myths like Santa, the Tooth Fairy, Easter Bunny, unicorns, non-farm payrolls, and retail sales, which will be released Thursday morning.

Wednesday's enthusiasm prior to the CPI release had much to do with bank earnings reported by BlackRock, Bank of New York Mellon (BK), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Goldman Sachs (GS), all of which topped estimates for the fourth quarter. Banks are just raking in profits thanks to consumers who see nothing wrong with borrowing on credit cards with interest rates as high as 24-30% in some instances. The average credit card user is paying through the nose, around 20.15% according to the latest data from bankrate.

So, at 8:30 am ET, did the BLS throw a fly into the ointment?

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - DECEMBER 2024

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in December, after rising 0.3 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for energy rose 2.6 percent in December, accounting for over forty percent of the monthly all items increase. The gasoline index increased 4.4 percent over the month. The index for food also increased in December, rising 0.3 percent as both the index for food at home and the index for food away from home increased 0.3 percent each.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in December, after increasing 0.3 percent in each of the previous 4 months. Indexes that increased in December include shelter, airline fares, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, motor vehicle insurance, and medical care. The indexes for personal care, communication, and alcoholic beverages were among the few major indexes that decreased over the month.

The all items index rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ending December, after rising 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending November. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.2 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 0.5 percent for the 12 months ending December. The food index increased 2.5 percent over the last year.

Nope. Futures shot straight up, because, even though inflation is still very much untamed, the monthly figure of +0.4% was spot on Wall Street's expected number even though it was the highest monthly figure since March. Never mind that the year-over-year number of 2.9% was the highest since July.

Right after the release, Dow futures ballooned to +640, NASDAQ was giddy, up 390, and S&P futures were up 92 points, all heading higher, defying all logic. Bankers are getting fat and people are going into debt buying food. Rate cuts? Who needs them?

Gold even got a boost, up over $2,700, though that's surely going to be short-lived. WTI crude shot up to $77.16 a four-month high. Thanks, Joe, Kamala, and all you lefty lovers of wind, solar, subsidies, electric cars, alien probes.

Well, at least booze is cheaper.

Ironically, President Joe Biden will deliver a farewell speech from the Oval Office tonight that's expected to focus on key achievements of his administration. Unmentioned will be the 4-8 million illegals that crossed into the U.S. 2021-2024, the highest inflation rate in more than 50 years, millions of $$$$ sent to Ukraine in a winless war, or the promotion of drag queen story hour, LGBTQ++ immorality, high crime rates, FEMA failures, devastating fires in Los Angeles, or record homelessness.

It's all good. We got DEI!

At the Close, Tuesday, January 14, 2025:
Dow: 42,518.28, +221.16 (+0.52%)
NASDAQ: 19,044.39, -43.71 (-0.23%)
S&P 500: 5,842.91, +6.69 (+0.11%)
NYSE Composite: 19,176.65, +129.33 (+0.68%)

Bloomberg Advances Fake News Syndicate (FNS), Futures, Euro Stocks Rally; PPI Still Hot at +0.2 in December, +3.3% Y-O-Y

The fake news roll-out on a near-daily basis is becoming almost comical. It is rather disturbing, however. Last week it was CNN and the Washington Post issuing reportus bogusimus, aka, fake news. This morning, it's Bloomberg's turn.

Stocks bounce and dollar slips after tariff report

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index snapped a two-day losing streak to rise 0.5%, as Bloomberg News quoted people familiar with the matter as saying graduated tariff hikes of about 2% to 5% a month are under discussion, rather than aggressive one-time increases.

"Bloomberg News quoted people familiar with the matter..." says it all.

The story goes on without any "quote" other than a few from Shaniel Ramjee, senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management.

Wikipedia says, "Pictet Asset Management manages assets for institutional investors and investment funds, including large pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and financial institutions. It also manages assets for individual investors through an extensive range of mandates, products, and services."

Well, OK. Quote some flunky in Geneva, Switzerland or Genoa, Italy, who cannot be held accountable for anything. That's SOP for FNS (Fake News Syndicate).

Does Michael Bloomberg hate Donald J. Trump?

Opinions vary, but it's a safe bet that the vainglorious Bloomberg surely isn't thrilled that the Donald is about to become president of the United States for a second time. The two have a history. After all, Trump built or expanded much of his real estate empire in New York City while Bloomberg was mayor. Additionally, Bloomberg launched a brief, failed bid for president in 2020.

A couple of tweets from the campaign trail suggest the two don't like each other very much.

Trump called Bloomberg a loser.

Bloomberg responds that people call Trump a "carnival barking clown" behind his back.

That's just the tip of the iceberg. A search for "Trump Bloomberg feud" or similar reveals a deep animosity.

European stocks and U.S. equity futures jumped upon release of the story. SSDD.

Stocks got pounded pretty hard again on Monday, but the chart pattern was changed. Instead of starting out the session high and proceeding lower (sure as shootin' bear market stuff), stocks started lower and then proceeded to drift higher throughout the day.

That's fine, and maybe there was some actual dip-buying out there, but the problem is that new, lower intraday lows were established on the S&P (5,781.10) and NASDAQ (18,859.79). Coincidentally, both indices bottomed out exactly at 10:30 am ET and made double bottoms right at noon.

With Tuesday's opening bell approaching, the ever-reliable BLS released December PPI at 8:30 am ET:

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.4 percent in November and 0.2 percent in October. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 3.3 percent in 2024 after moving up 1.1 percent in 2023.

On the surface, that doesn't sound good, particularly when drilling down to find that the December rise can be traced to a 0.6 percent advance in the index for final demand goods, which had been quiet in recent months.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services (Super Core) rose 3.3 percent in 2024 after advancing 2.7 percent in 2023.

Somehow, Wall Street interpreted the numbers as positive, most likely because they were below heightened expectations (+0.4% on monthly and 3.5% year-over-year). Futures flew higher in knee-jerk fashion after falling close to unchanged earlier. Apparently, the Bloomberg fake news article didn't have much effect, though, amid rumors that PPI and CPI had been leaked, there might have been some necessity in boosting futures in the wee hours of the U.S. morning if only to avoid a sharp decline when PPI was made public.

Tin foil hats firmly attached, Tuesday morning futures appear to be a case of classic misdirection. Looks like the markets are going to revert back to the chart pattern of recent vintage: up at the open, down by the close.

At the Close, Monday, January 13, 2025:
Dow: 42,297.12, +358.67 (+0.86%)
NASDAQ: 19,088.10, -73.53 (-0.38%)
S&P 500: 5,836.22, +9.18 (+0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 19,047.33, +84.32 (+0.44%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Stocks Take a Hit, Down Year-to-Date; Long Bond Yields Approach 5%; Gold, Silver Gain on Big December Jobs Report

2025 isn't off to a very good start. In fact, all the major U.S. indices are down for the year, albeit at a very early juncture, but the first six trading days of the year have not been happy ones for equity holders.

Stocks

Investors got spanked, and hard, on Friday, after the BLS announced January job gains of 256,000, shattering estimates that largely ranged between 110,000 and 160,000. The good news was enough to trigger Wall Street's inverse response, that a strong economy is not conducive to lower interest rates, which is what the stock pushers and pumpers have been squealing for since the Fed began raising rates nearly three years ago (March 2022).

Not only did the selling result in a the biggest decline of the new year on the S&P and the Dow, but it sent the NASDAQ lower, even after a 376-point loss on Tuesday, January 7. The weekly gauge was down as well and stuck stocks on the wrong side of the ledger year-to-date.

Year-to-date:
Dow: -605.77 (-1.4%)
NASDAQ: -149.17 (-0.8%)
S&P 500: -54.59 (-0.9%)
NYSE Composite: -134.09 (-0.7)
Russell 2000: -40.93 (-1.8%)

How bad it is depends on who you ask. The Dow, for instance, has dropped 17 of the last 24 trading sessions after hitting an all-time high on December 4. Since then, it's down 6.83%, just shy of 3,100 points. By comparison, the S&P and NASDAQ have suffered less, losing around five percent over similar time spans, though it appears the NASDAQ-Tech-AI selling spree might be just getting started.

With the January jobs jamboree in the books, investors will begin gauging earnings in the coming week, sweating it out until Trump's inauguration on Monday, January 20. As has become regular practice, the first week of earnings season will be dominated by the biggest banks.

Monday (Jan. 13): KB Homes (KBH)

Tuesday: Applied Digital (APLD)

Wednesday: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK) Citigroup (C), Bank of New York Mellon (BK)

Thursday: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of America (BAC), U.S. Bancorp (USB), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), PNC Financial Services (PNC)

Friday: Citizens Financial Group (CFG), State Street (STT), Regions Financial (RF), Truist (TFC), Schlumberger (SLB), Fastenal (FAST)

In addition, December PPI is released on Tuesday and CPI on Wednesday, both prior to the opening bell. There's also data drops from the Philly and New York Feds, December Retail Sales (Thursday).

Fed Presidents John Williams, Neel Kashkari, and Austan Goolsbee will be out jaw-boning their mumbo-jumbo at various conferences during the week.

Should be just swell.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
12/06/2024	4.57	4.50	4.42	4.42	4.34	4.19
12/13/2024	4.43	4.43	4.34	4.36	4.32	4.24
12/20/2024	4.43	4.42	4.34	4.35	4.29	4.27
12/27/2024	4.44	4.43	4.31	4.35	4.29	4.20
01/03/2025	4.44	4.35	4.34	4.31	4.25	4.18
01/10/2025	4.42	4.35	4.36	4.33	4.27	4.25

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
12/06/2024	4.10	4.05	4.03	4.09	4.15	4.42	4.34
12/13/2024	4.25	4.21	4.25	4.33	4.40	4.69	4.61
12/20/2024	4.30	4.32	4.37	4.45	4.52	4.79	4.72
12/27/2024	4.31	4.36	4.45	4.53	4.62	4.89	4.82
01/03/2025	4.28	4.32	4.41	4.51	4.60	4.88	4.82
01/10/2025	4.40	4.46	4.59	4.70	4.77	5.04	4.96

Despite the Fd cutting the federal funds rate by one percent since August with a 50 basis point cut in September (political), and a pair of 25 basis point cuts in November and December, long-dated maturities have not cooperated as intended, instead rising by more than the one-percent blessed by the Fed governors and regional presidents.

Since the day before the first cut in September, the 17th, yield on the 10-year note stood at 3.65%, the 20-year bond yielded 4.02%, and the 30-year returned 3.96%. On the release of the policy announcement on the 18th, they all moved in the opposite direction, to 3.70%, 4.08%, and 4.03%, respectively.

Look where they are now. At a minimum the longest-dated maturities are not one percent lower, but one percent HIGHER! One conclusion to draw from this conundrum is that the bond vigilantes are back with a vengeance, revolting against what they consider to be a grave policy error on the part of the Fed by shunning treasuries by demanding a payoff commensurate with what they percieve as high risk.

They are not alone. America's strongest foreign debt buyers, Japan and China, have been shedding U.S. debt since 2022 and they aren't stopping. According to Bloomberg:

Japanese investors sold a record $61.9 billion of the securities in the three months ended Sept. 30, data from the US Department of the Treasury showed on Monday. Funds in China offloaded $51.3 billion during the same period, the second biggest sum on record.

Part of that strategy has to do with incoming tariffs from the Trump administration, but it is part of an overall tendency to shun U.S. debt markets that began when the the U.S. and Europe sequestered (that's being kind) roughly $300 billion in Russian assets at the start of the Ukraine project (Feb. 2022). While Trump may find a way to end the Ukraine and other conflicts, repairing the financial damage will require even more effort. He could start with ending the tariff regime, which only serves to harm U.S. interests and maybe find a way to return to Russia the funds that are rightfully theirs.

Whether he takes action in those directions, we may begin to find out within eight days. Something's got to give and there's growing talk that a global debt crisis is approaching.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil continued its wild ride higher, finishing out the week at $75.70, up from $74.07 the prior Friday. Right after the jobs report, WTI hit a high at $76.75, the highest level in three months. What appears to be moving the price of oil recently is the spate of frigid weather across the lower 48 states, prompting just a little price gouging from those benevolent producers.

This week's bump sent oil prices closer to summer's levels above $82/barrel. This appears to be a little more than a response rally. There's still plenty of winter left and prices tend to rise in the spring, though the supply-demand dynamic remains in favor of consumers.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump unchanged at $3.05 a gallon.

California continues on top, at $4.36 a gallon, remaining well below prices prevailing during the summer.

Pennsylvania prices stabilized, at $3.26, with the Keystone State the price leader in the Northeast. New York saw little change, at $3.11. Connecticut ($3.03) was up slightly while Massachusetts ($2.98) was lower by a penny. Maryland settled lower, at $3.10.

Illinois was four cents higher, to $3.22. Ohio ($2.96) and Indiana ($2.99) dipped back under $3 after a week above.

Fuel prices in Oklahoma ($2.53) continue to be the lowest in the nation, despite rising three cents this week. Following are Mississippi ($2.57), Louisiana and Kansas ($2.66) Texas and Arkansas ($2.67), Tennessee ($2.69), Alabama ($2.74), and Missouri, $2.75. Florida's is steady, at $3.11, Georgia remains sub-$3 at $2.91.

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in more than 30 U.S. states. The Northeast and West coast remain over-$3.00 holdouts.

Arizona ($3.03) continues to tease at $3 gas. Oregon checked in at $3.45, Nevada at $3.58, and Washington at $3.89, leaving only California above $4.00. Utah ($3.02) and Idaho ($3.02) remain just above the $3.00 threshold.

Bitcoin

This week: $94,640.44
Last week: $97,453.01
2 weeks ago: $94,597.53
6 months ago: $57,935.24
One year ago: $42,848.36
Five years ago: $8,910.66

The crypto market continues its struggle for identity. The price of bitcoin fluctuates as much as five percent or more weekly, often by that much or more in a single day, which is probably because it's nothing more than a Wall Street slush fund. Watch how quickly it evaporates in the next liquidity crisis or spate of margin calls.

Bitcoin ia a swell place to park money if you can handle the volatility and potential for theft or loss.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 86.82; last week: 88.13

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 12/13: $2,665.90
Gold price 12/20: $2,640.50
Gold price 12/27: $2,636.50
Gold price 1/5: $2,652.70
Gold price 1/12: $2,717.40

Silver price 12/13: $31.00
Silver price 12/20: $30.08
Silver price 12/27: $29.98
Silver price 1/5: $30.10
Silver price 1/12: $31.30

Gold began a serious breakout on the back of Friday's jobs report, vaulting over $2,700 to reach a high of $2,728.90 early in the day before settling down in the afternoon to its highest close in a month. Silver also got the memo, breaking through $31, hitting a high of $31.83.

The outsized gains on Friday indicate that precious metals are on their own flight path. With the blowout jobs report and higher interest rates, PMs would often take a hit in such a scenario. Instead, both got jacked higher because people see inflation rising again and the chance that the Fed will not only fail to lower interest rates again, but possible raise them. That's a sword that cuts both ways. On one hand, gold and silver provide the best protection from currency debasement manifested as inflation. Otherwise, rising interest rates provide an alternative and hedge.

Perhaps there's a growing concern that U.S. treasuries aren't exactly risk-free and subject holders to losing money against inflation. That's a huge plus for gold and silver which continue to gain new supporters in retail channels.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	35.00	52.00	42.27	42.00
1 oz silver bar:	38.05	44.95	40.66	40.13
1 oz gold coin:	2,794.70	2,904.70	2,860.71	2,879.68
1 oz gold bar:	2,650.00	2,855.75	2,793.99	2,805.92

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) galloped ahead, to $41.27, a gain of $1.73 from the January 5th price of $39.54 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

The upcoming week will be the first full week of trading for the year. The trend has been lower for stocks and higher for long-dated treasuries.

Is the trend your friend?

At the Close, Friday, January 10, 2025:
Dow: 41,938.45, -696.75 (-1.63%)
NASDAQ: 19,161.63, -317.25 (-1.63%)
S&P 500: 5,827.04, -91.21 (-1.54%)
NYSE Composite: 18,963.01, -277.73 (-1.44%)

For the week:
Dow: -793.68 (-1.86%)
NASDAQ: -460.05 (-2.34%)
S&P 500: -115.43 (-1.94%)
NYSE Composite: -291.28 (-1.51%)
Dow Transports: -83.60 (-0.52%)
Russell 2000: -79.24 (-3.53%)

Year-to-date:
Dow: -605.77 (-1.4%)
NASDAQ: -149.17 (-0.8%)
S&P 500: -54.59 (-0.9%)
NYSE Composite: -134.09 (-0.7)
Russell 2000: -40.93 (-1.8%)

December Non-Farm Payrolls Surprise at 256,000 Jobs; Stocks Headed to End Week Badly; Plan for Inflation or Deflation?

There was a sense of anxious expectation in advance of the December Non-farm Payroll data released at 8:30 am ET on Friday. Stock futures meandered about, directionless, though negative, ahead of the number. By contrast, reaction to the release was swift and decisive. Futures tanked. Straight into the toilet, because if the employment situation is strong, as this release suggests, then the Fed will have less incentive to lower the federal funds target rate at their upcoming FOMC meeting January 28-29. Wall Street doesn’t abide by that.

Right around 9:00 am ET, a half hour after the release, Dow futures were down 330 points, NASDAQ futures fell 215, and S&P futures were down 50.

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, government, and social assistance. Retail trade added jobs in December, following a job loss in November.

The number was rather large and beyond most expectations. However, it's important to note where the jobs were created: health care, government, and social assistance. Two of those - government and social assistance - actually intersect. Health care also crosses into those areas, so, most of the jobs came from the same basic service area encompassed largely in the public sector. Retail added jobs during the holidays. No, really, they did. Big surpise (Hint: most of those December retail hires won't last through January).

Adding up the largest increases:
Retail: +43,000
Leisure and hospitaolity: +43,000
Health Care: +46,000
Government: +33,000
Social assistance: +23,000

That gives us +188,000 of the 256,000 jobs created in December. Small gains in education, professional and business services, information, financial services, and transportation account for the remaining 68,000 jobs.

Naturally, the numbers ar not reliable, being nothing more than estimates by the fudgers at BLS, but Wall street takes them at their word - probably a mistake. In any case, the end of the week looks bleak.

Through Wednesday's close (markets were shuttered Thursday), the Dow was down 97 points, the NASDAQ off 142, and the S&P was 24 points lower. With Friday's cash session looking like a bummer, the week looks like it will belong to the bears, though there's always the chance of some miracle rally occurring, the cause a report by some "unnamed sources" or maybe a mysterious, deep-pocketed buyer snatching up index options.

Otherwise, it appears everything is going according to plan to dump the stock market and the economy right as Donald J. Trump takes the oath for the Presidency. Some will say, "meh." Others may be just a little more opinionated.

Here's a mental exercise for anybody who is concerned about their financial future, which should be, well, just about everybody. This is something that requires a bit of thought, unlike just popping off an answer to a poll.

It's a simple A-B choice: Which would you prefer, a hyper-inflationary spiral or a deflationary collapse?

There's no in-between. The banking monopolies have seen to that. It's one or the other.

In the hyper-inflation model, prices for everything increase at an accelerating pace with which your wages cannot hope to keep up. You are forced to dip into savings (which become worth less and less every passing moment) or go deeper into debt - at higher and higher rates of interest - in order to survive.

The deflationary condition implies that jobs become scarce, pay is low, you might actually be laid off or terminated. Because a high level of unemployment induces a supply-demand dysfunction. Lower and lower demand pushes prices down, but still, few can afford anything beyond the basics. Again, you have to dip into savings (which may be depleted rather quickly) or borrow to survive.

The time element may be worth considering. A hyper-inflation event - like what happened in Weimar Germany or Zimbabwe or Venezuela ore recently - might last three to five years before currency becomes entirely worthless and a new monetary system is brought to bear. The intervening period, with prices rising at a quickening pace, monthly, then weekly, then daily, results in bankruptcies, high crime, suicides. The endgame produces few winners, but the average Jane or Joe gets a second chance at making ends meet and possibly finding some level of prosperity.

Deflation may last longer, perhaps 10 to 15 years, as was the Great Depression, which lasted from roughly 1930 until 1942-43. The basics of life are less abundant and not easily acquired. Poverty, sickness, and starvation are real concerns. It's the ultimate welfare state, wherein almost everybody outside the ultra-rich, receives some form of government aid. Most will be provided with just enough to get by. Like depression era folks were fond of saying, "we had everything, except money."

It's worth looking into and choosing a strategy that fits one or the other scenarios, or both, because there might be a bit of both. There's already been a good bout of inflation, so, like in physics (for every action there's an equal and opposite reaction), some deflation may be on the menu.

Keep front of mind the sage advice of Benjamin Franklin: "If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail."

At the Close, Wednesday, January 8, 2025:
Dow: 42,635.20, +106.84 (+0.25%)
NASDAQ: 19,478.88, -10.80 (-0.06%)
S&P 500: 5,918.25, +9.22 (+0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 19,240.74, +26.86 (+0.14%)

Now, CNN Publishes FAKE NEWS; Stocks Slide Again on Tuesday; Nvidia Gashed; Markets Closed Thursday

On Monday, the Washington Post published a bogus story about Trump paring back tariffs that sent stock futures soaring in the pre-market. Wednesday morning, it's apparently CNN's turn to whip the futures in the opposite direction and send the dollar lower with a spurious screed with the screeching headline:

Trump is considering a national economic emergency declaration to allow for new tariff program, sources say

At 6:30 am, when the story was posted at CNN.com, futures plunged, with NASDAQ futures dropping 120 points in a matter of minutes.

The story begins with this:

President-elect Donald Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries, four sources familiar with the matter told CNN, as Trump seeks to reset the global balance of trade in his second term.

The declaration would allow Trump to construct a new tariff program by using the International Economic Emergency Powers Act, known as “IEEPA,” which unilaterally authorizes a president to manage imports during a national emergency.

Trump, one of the sources noted, has a fondness for the law, since it grants wide-ranging jurisdiction over how tariffs are implemented without strict requirements to prove the tariffs are needed on national security grounds.

As usual, no names are mentioned, just the usually-mysterious "sources familiar with...". This time, as if to make the fake news more credible, they specifically say FOUR sources, right in the first sentence.

Sorry to be blunt and vulgar, but what a crock of shit.

What this does is whip up anti-Trump sentiment and send the computer algorithms spinning. It's a great thing if you know which way the media is going to send stocks on any given day. Otherwise, it's rather concerning that the mainstream media complex would stoop to such depths, though, having been witness to their antics the past 15 years or so, it's hardly a surprise.

Apparently, this is what the media plans on subjecting the world to for the four years of Trump's presidency. OK, then, after "Russia, Russia, Russia", "Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine", and "Biden is Sharp as a Tack", we'll get used to "Trump is Hitler", or "Trump Hates Blacks". Alrighty. Let's get it on. Just 13 days until inauguration.

Stocks didn't perform very well at all on Tuesday, the NASDAQ taking the brunt of the selling, losing nearly two percent on the day.

The same chart pattern that Money Daily has warned about recently continues to be prominent. That is the prevalence of stocks coming out at the open higher and then trading down through the session, only to end lower. It is a pattern indicative of bear market conditions, and, even though stocks are barely off recent all-time highs, these recurring patterns may serve as early warning signs to investors paying close attention to intra-day activity.

Not to worry, only the Dow is down for the year, and only marginally at that (9 points). The other majors have been spared thus far thanks to the huge rally on Friday, January 3rd, but, they've all been skidding since early December. Longer term charts, those which begin prior to December, show the indices all suffering lower lows and lower highs, a worrying sign of sagging investor confidence.

The Dow, in particular, has lost more than 2,500 points since December 4, after hitting an all-time high that day (45,014.04). The S&P recorded its own record close on December 6 (6,090.27). Since then its off 181 points, or, about three percent.

Nvidia was the main culprit taking down the NASDAQ on Tuesday, just one session after it closed at an all-time higher of 149.43. It shed more than six percent Tuesday, closing down 9.29, at 140.14.

All markets will be closed on Thursday, January 9, in respect for President Jimmy Carter, who passed away last month at the age of 100.

At 8:00 am, equity futures were all lower, with NASDAQ futures down 95, Dow futures off 89, and S&P futures shedding 20 points.

Gold is flat at $2,665.00; silver, up marginally, at $30.67. WTI crude is testing resistance at $75/barrel, mostly on predicted persistent cold weather in the U.S. for about another week. Looking very ripe to short.

At the Close, Tuesday, January 7, 2024:
Dow: 42,528.36, -178.20 (-0.42%)
NASDAQ: 19,489.68, -375.30 (-1.89%)
S&P 500: 5,909.03, -66.35 (-1.11%)
NYSE Composite: 19,213.88, -47.54 (-0.25%)

FOLIA, FOLIA, FOLIA; Stocks Open Higher, Lose Ground All Afternoon; Indonesia Joins BRICS

Clown world economics.

That's about the only accurate way to describe how the world's major markets function in the 21st century age of high tech, AI, markets tethered to computer algorithmic trading and fake news.

Monday's event was a case in point. One Washington Post story changed everything in every market that was open as of 6:00 am ET, when Jeff Bezos' media spin tool posted the story on the internet.

In the "exclusive" story, Trump aides ready 'universal' tariff plans - with one key change no evidence of veracity was presented other than the usual "unnamed sources."

Here we go, right in the opening paragraph (emphasis ours):

President-elect Donald Trump’s aides are exploring tariff plans that would be applied to every country but only cover critical imports, three people familiar with the matter said — a key shift from his plans during the 2024 presidential campaign.

As the story progressed, no names are given (security, etc. ya know), but the following phrases are taken directly from the text:

the people said
said the people
The people spoke on the condition of anonymity
the people said
some people familiar with the matter said
the people said
one of the people said
The Trump transition declined to comment
Multiple people familiar with the discussions
Liberal and conservative critics say (Who? Liberal and Conservative, wouldn't that be everybody?)
economists of both parties say

As if to add credibility, near the end of the article, WaPo throws this up:

"President Trump has promised tariff policies that protect the American manufacturers and working men and women from the unfair practices of foreign companies and foreign markets," Brian Hughes, a spokesman for the Trump transition team, said in a statement. "As he did in his first term, he will implement economic and trade policies to make life affordable and more prosperous for our nation."

So, the computer algos see this, and begin buying everything. Precisely at the posting of the article, everything, and that means everything shot skyward, including Dow futures, S&P futures, NASDAQ futures, Germany's DAX, England's FTSE, Spain's IBEX, France's CAC, gold, silver, bitcoin, crude oil futures, yen, euros, pounds, even the Aussie and Canadian dollar, as the US dollar fell.

The salient points to be observed here are multi-faceted. First, honest journalism is dead. There was once a time when respected journalists had to name sources. Now, the norm is "unnamed sources" or "sources familiar with". This story, like thousands of others, is nothing more than propaganda and lies. Anybody can say, "Somebody in the White House said bombing XXX is a priority," or otherwise flagrant, audacious Solipsism. These stories should be labeled as not credible, rumors, fabrications, and discarded. Instead, financial markets eat this stuff for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, as spurious as it gets.

Second, and maybe this is the most important, global markets are all coordinated and attuned to media headlines such as these. What that means for every investor not in the multi-million or billion-dollar asset class, is that these markets cannot be trusted. They can turn on a dime or on any story from one of their "respected" sources, like WaPo, NYTimes, ABC, CBS, NBC, BBC, etc.

Third, because of the first two facets of what amounts to nothing other than fraud, markets are corrupted, your money is corrupted, and your financial well-being is out of your control. Your investments could be worth millions one day and next-to-nothing the next, thanks to computers and people you cannot see, feel, smell, or touch.

Clown world may be an easy description for what masquerades these days as financial markets, but it's a whole lot scarier than that.

Worst of all, people who read and comment on the WaPo message board accept the story without reservation as true. The comments are hilarious. Here's a favorite:

"Trump and his people are foolish, idiotic, brainless, dense, dimwitted, imbecilic, senseless, daft, dull, obtuse, thickheaded, asinine, simpleminded, witless, unwise, cloddish, vacuous, mindless, clueless morons."

Nice use of a thesaurus, for all the wrong reasons.

Of course, after the deed had been done, Trump later stated that the Washington Post story is wrong and just another example of fake news.

"The story in the Washington Post, quoting so-called anonymous sources, which don't exist, incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back. That is wrong. The Washington Post knows it's wrong. It's just another example of Fake News," he wrote in a post on Truth Social.

Monday's trading was yet another example of the bear market chart patterns described here last week, up at the open, down in the afternoon.

There's a recession coming, a stock market crash, and all kinds of pain for President-Elect Donald J. Trump and VP DJ Vance, who were certified Monday by the House and Senate as having won the November elections.

The Dow hit a high of 43,115.31, up 383 points, right at noon ET. It didn't end well for those high-flying speculators who are now beginning to suffer the initial pangs of FOLIA (Fear Of Losing It All).

Perhaps the most important global development - on par with the certification of Trump and Vance - on Monday was the announcement of Indonesia becoming the 10th full member of BRICS.

The significance of this cannot be understated, despite Western media hardly noticing and barely reporting, as Indonesia has the largest population in the South Pacific, and is the fourth-most-populated country in the world, at 283,487,931, its addition to the BRICS now dwarfing the population of the countries of Western hegemony, primarily Europe, the U.S., Commonwealth nations, and Japan.

As a counterweight to the U.S. and Europe, BRICS continues to evolve and grow in stature and importance in world affairs. To ignore its existence is akin to denouncing reality. President-elect Trump has already issued statements to the effect that he would impose 100% tariffs on countries trying to replace the dollar in international trade. The Global South covers most of Asia, Africa, South America, and the Pacific Rim. The United States and Europe might find itself largely isolated from countries which produce the bulk of the world’s commodities, including foodstuffs, oil, and other natural resources.

His bluster is likely to fall on deaf ears in the emergent Global South, an amalgam of more than 150 countries which would likely prefer to trade amongst themselves rather than face sanctions and the weaponization of the dollar as reserve currency.

It's important to keep a keen eye on BRICS developments as they are likely to run counter to Trump's trade and tariff policies as his administration takes control of U.S. commerce.

With the cash session minutes away, even in the absence of fake news, stock futures are soaring once again.

At the Close, Monday, January 6, 2025:
Dow: 42,706.56, -25.57 (-0.06%)
NASDAQ: 19,864.98, +243.30 (+1.24%)
S&P 500: 5,975.38, +32.91 (+0.55%)
NYSE Composite: 19,261.42, +7.13 (+0.04%)

WEEKEND WRAP: 2024 Solid Performance In the Books; 2025 Gets off to Rocky Start; Gold, Silver Rebounding; Oil Price Overheating

2024 ended not with a bang, but a wimper, with stocks losing ground over the supposedly automatic "Santa Rally" period from the 23rd through the 31st of December. That lackluster performance carried over into the first trading session of 2025 on Thursday, Janaury 2nd, but the banks and brokerages apparently got the memo to keep the "all good" narrative alive on Friday, as stocks ended a poor week with big gains.

Friday's rally wasn't enough to reverse losses, however. Only the NYSE Composite ended the week with a plus sign. The Dow was down for the fourth time in the last five weeks with the Dow Jones Transportation Average confirming a primary market reversal from bull to bear, also lower four of the last five.

The NASDAQ and S&P indices appear to be content defying gravity and reality for now, their losses marginal over the past month.

With just two trading sessions in the 2025 book, clearly, the market is on uncertain footing. We're just getting started.

Stocks

For an asset manager's perspective, Maximilian McKechnie, JP Morgan's Global Market Strategist, offers a straightforward account of the year just passed and some cool charts in support of his findings.

Morningstar's 2024 in Review and 2025 Market Outlook is also well-presented.

Anybody who hold stocks or was invested in a passive index fund received solid returns in 2024. The NASDAQ led the world (outside of bitcoin), with a gain of 30.8%, while the S&P rallied all year, up 24.0%.

The market is bracing itself for the Trump tsunami, his polies certain to cause some degree of agita in corporate suites and brokerage houses. Good or bad, the government needs fixing badly. Trump, Musk, and Ramaswamy are going to take big swipes at broad swaths of the government bureaucracy. How congress and Wall Street responds will prove impactful to all investors and even lowly citizens.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
11/29/2024	4.76	4.69	4.58	4.52	4.42	4.30
12/06/2024	4.57	4.50	4.42	4.42	4.34	4.19
12/13/2024	4.43	4.43	4.34	4.36	4.32	4.24
12/20/2024	4.43	4.42	4.34	4.35	4.29	4.27
12/27/2024	4.44	4.43	4.31	4.35	4.29	4.20
01/03/2025	4.44	4.35	4.34	4.31	4.25	4.18

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
11/29/2024	4.13	4.10	4.05	4.10	4.18	4.45	4.36
12/06/2024	4.10	4.05	4.03	4.09	4.15	4.42	4.34
12/13/2024	4.25	4.21	4.25	4.33	4.40	4.69	4.61
12/20/2024	4.30	4.32	4.37	4.45	4.52	4.79	4.72
12/27/2024	4.31	4.36	4.45	4.53	4.62	4.89	4.82
01/03/2025	4.28	4.32	4.41	4.51	4.60	4.88	4.82

The 10-year note went on a roller coaster ride in 2024, starting out in January at 3.95%, peaking in April at 4.70% before falling to a low of 3.63% in mid-September. It spent the final three months defying the Fed's rate cuts, rising to a high of 4.62% on December 27. In effect, while the Fed was busy cutting the federal funds rate by one percent, the 10-year note rebelled, rising by almost the exact same amount. The take-away is clear: fixed income purchasers aren't buying it. The outcome will be exciting as the new year progresses. To see who is wrong-footed - the Fed or the bond vigilantes - will require extra bags of popcorn.

For whatever it's worth, the Fed has nearly achieved an unclenching of the inverted yield curve. There still exists a downslope from 1-month bills all the way out to five-year notes, but a couple more 25 basis point rate cuts early this year should eliminate that problem and iron out the wrinkles. When the flattening of the curve is complete, the Fed may actually be praised for its support of diversity, equity, and inclusion.

Unfortunately, all bonds are not created equal.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil shot up wildly over the holiday, closing at $74.07 Friday, up nearly $4 from last Friday's close at $70.26. There's little explanation for this price movement other than speculation in the futures markets. Nothing in current production levels and consumer demand indicate that the pric of oil should be higher.

Even with this week's bump and the month-long gain that started from December 6 at $67.20, oil prices are still much lower than summer's pricing above $82/barrel. This appears to be nothing more than a response rally, unless there's something the oil barons aren't telling everybody else, which is always a possibility.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump of $3.05 a gallon, up four cents from last week.

California continues to be the price leader, at $4.35 a gallon, still well below prices prevailing during the summer.

Pennsylvania prices were up six cents this week, at $3.27, with the Keystone State continuing as the price leader in the Northeast. New York was unmoved, at $3.10. Connecticut ($3.00) and Massachusetts ($2.99) were slightly lower, while Maryland's price jumped to $3.13, following weeks of sub-$3 prices. Even with the holiday travel boost, prices remain close to 42-month lows.

Illinois dropped a penny to $3.18. Ohio ($3.12) and Indiana ($3.11) were only under $3 for about a week, now rising.

Fuel prices in Oklahoma ($2.50) continue to be the lowest in the nation, despite rising three cents this week. Following are Mississippi ($2.57), Texas ($2.63), Kansas ($2.66), Louisiana ($2.68), and Arkansas ($2.69. Tennessee shows $2.73. Alabama, $2.74, Missouri, $2.74, and South Carolina, $2.75. Florida's is up again, at $3.10, Georgia remains sub-$3 at $2.89.

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in less than 28 U.S. states, down from 32 a week ago. The Northeast and West coast remain over-$3.00 holdouts.

Arizona ($3.02) continued its long trend lower, though slower. Oregon checked in at $3.53, Nevada at $3.56, and Washington at $3.87, leaving only California above $4.00. Utah ($3.03) and Idaho ($3.05) remain just above the $3.00 threshold.

Bitcoin

This week: $97,453.01
Last week: $94,597.53
2 weeks ago: $95,712.22
6 months ago: $56,420.53
One year ago: $44,003.69
Five years ago: $8,020.98

With the holidays over, buyers of Bitcoin poured back into cyber-space, lifting Bitcoin's price by nearly $3,000. Speculators - which is all hodlers are, really - remain hopeful of the ridiculous notion that the United States will establish a "Bitcoin Reserve" once President Trump and his minions take control in D.C.

Should such an overtly absurd concept ever become a reality (it won't), the "reserve" would likely be raided by our congressional overlords who can't seem to keep their hands off any financial asset, real, or imagined.

The mindset of bitcoiners is one that envisions a world in which Social Security benefits, EBT cards, government pensions, and a slew of other entitlements would be doled out over the bitcoin blockchain (or some newly-developed CBDC) or settled in Ethereum smart contracts. Granny may have to brush up her computer and smart phone skills for such a dystopian scam, should it ever materialize.

Nonetheless, crypto adherents are all fine with that, these mental midgets slavishly follow any pied piper preaching eternal wealth without working.

Bitcoin, and the entire crypto universe is a fallacy. There's actually nothing supporting a Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap of $3,478,109,967,972 other than nearly-blind faith, FOMO, and greed.

That's OK, for speculators. The rest of the world is still happy using fiat currencies backed by "full faith and credit" of various governments in the U.S., Eurozone, China, Japan, et. al. The human population has been conditioned to believe in myths for centuries. From antiquity to the present day, this is nothing new.

It's in the Bible:

"What has been is what will be, and what has been done is what will be done, and there is nothing new under the sun." - Ecclesiastes 1:9

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 88.13; last week: 87.50

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 12/6: $2,654.90
Gold price 12/13: $2,665.90
Gold price 12/20: $2,640.50
Gold price 12/27: $2,636.50
Gold price 1/5: $2,652.70

Silver price 12/6: $31.49
Silver price 12/13: $31.00
Silver price 12/20: $30.08
Silver price 12/27: $29.98
Silver price 1/5: $30.10

Both gold and silver started the new year off with a bang, with gold hitting a high of $2,679.00 on Thursday, the 2nd, and silver as high as $30.33 on Friday, January 3rd. As has been common practice of late, when the dollar and stocks rallied on Friday (a rather ordinary practice, though suspicious), precious metals prices were slashed.

It seems apparent that gold buyers, particularly national central banks and sovereign wealth funds, have not given up on the metal. China has been shoring up reserves of gold at a blistering pace the past two years, and buying copious amounts of gold and silver over the past 10-15 years both through its official channels and by purchases from its citizenry. Russia, forced to diversify reserves out of euros and dollar-denominated investments (T-bills), has amassed an enormous stockpile of gold and recently announced intentions to buy silver in quantity. Both Asian powers continue to accumulate precious metals in deference to the U.S. dollar.

Gauged by activity on eBay and online retailers, individual investors are flush with cash and buying freely, suggestive of an attitude that regards elevated premia are merely a market function and presager of future prices. Nobody is particularly concerned about buying smaller amounts of finished products at $100-150 over spot for gold and anywhere from $5 to $10 over silver spot. The satisfaction of owning an asset with no counter-party risk outside the debt-based monetary regime seems a reward worth the extra cash.

The gold:silver ratio has continued to rise, nearing nosebleed levels. This week's reading of 88.13 keeps silver stackers plunging in for post-holiday purchases. Buying has been robust. Reversion to the mean is an eventuality for all markets. How and when silver becomes priced properly is a function of international commerce, emerging exchanges in BRICS+ countries (China, Russia, UAE, in particular) to rival the COMEX, and supply-demand dynamics. While there seems to be no shortage of gold available in quantity (for now), silver's deficit is a matter of public record, and growing. Beyond the riggers at the COMEX and LBMA, industrial demand has slowed to a snail's pace as global economies continue to sputter.

There will come a reckoning and precious metals' date with destiny to be approaching apace.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	30.00	48.88	39.70	40.22
1 oz silver bar:	36.00	48.95	39.50	38.75
1 oz gold coin:	2,740.00	2,837.07	2,788.49	2,789.46
1 oz gold bar:	2,746.85	2,807.53	2,771.61	2,759.85

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell slightly, to $39.54, a loss of 63 cents from the December 29 price of $40.15 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

15 days and counting until the Biden years get swept unceremoniously into the dustbin of history.

Look for prices of lots of things - particularly food, gas, housing, and electronics - to come down over the next six months. About a third of all Americans are completely priced out and tapped out. Unless one envisions a depression-era scenario, that is not at all sustainable.

At the Close, Friday, December 27, 2024:
Dow: 42,732.13, +339.86 (+0.80%)
NASDAQ: 19,621.68, +340.88 (+1.77%)
S&P 500: 5,942.47, +73.92 (+1.26%)
NYSE Composite: 19,254.29, +158.88 (+0.83%)

For the Week:
Dow: -260.08 (-0.60%)
NASDAQ: -100.35 (-0.35%)
S&P 500: -28.37 (-0.48%)
NYSE Composite: +15.81 (+0.08%)
Dow Transports: -23.64 (-0.15%)

Ominous Patterns Emerging As Stocks Start Off New Year On Wrong Foot; Gold, Silver, Oil Gain

Bear market patterns have been emerging on the major indices over the past few weeks - specifically, stocks opening strong to the upside only to fall into negative territory later in the day - that indicate a bear market is developing.

That is exactly what occurred on the first day of trading in 2025. The Dow was up nearly 350 points in early trading Thursday, but closed down 151 points. The NASDAQ was up more than 200 points early on, but lost ground throughout the session, closing with a small (-30 points) loss.

The same was true for the S&P, which was up more than 50 points around 10:00 am ET, then fell 50 points into the red, finally rallying late in the day to register a smallish, 13-point loss.

After sprouting solid gains for the first 11 months of 2024, December was a decided departure from the norm, as the major indices were all down for the month, though the high-flying NASDAQ, dominated by the Magnificent 7, was down only marginally.

These patterns have been re-appearing on a regular basis and do not bode well for the "January Effect" which posits that "as goes January, so goes the rest of the year.

Analysts can pound the table as much as thye like about their year-end projections of stock gains, but the evidence thus far is lacking. Stocks remain wildly overvalued and incoming Trump policies and actions by his chief leiutenants will have profound effects on trading once implemented after January 20.

Expect similar results on a regular basis up until the inauguration. After that, stocks could spiral down without much support.

Gold, silver, and oil posted gains on January 2, but precious metals are under pressure leading to the opening bell. As usual, stocks are poised for a higher open by equity futures. Oil continues to push forward for no good reason, topping $73.50 in early trading, the highest since mid-October.

This being the first Friday of the month, normally non-farm payroll results (December) would be posted. Since the date is so close to the beginning of the month and the past two weeks were interrupted by holidays, the slavish BLS obviously needs more time to fudge the numbers.

Tread lightly, and carry a big stick, preferably made of gold or silver (quite heavy).

At the Close, Thursday, January 2, 2025:
Dow: 42,392.27, -151.95 (-0.36%)
NASDAQ: 19,280.79, -30.00 (-0.16%)
S&P 500: 5,868.55, -13.08 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 19,095.42, -1.69 (-0.01%)