Stocks Flat Awaiting FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Don't expect much in the way of big moves until Wednesday, when the FOMC is expected to announce no change in the federal funds rate, quelling fears of another 25 basis point rate hike like the one executed in December of last year, essentially taking the punch bowl of easy money further away from the drunken Wall Street partiers.

If the Fed somehow decides to hike rates again, it would spell doom for the four-week rally that has brought the Dow back a stunning 1200 points. from mid-February lows.

Should the Fed conform to the dictates of the stock market (which it does, but definitely should not), keeping the rate at 0.25-0.50%, there is some suggestion that stocks could rally further, though, with the first quarter winding down and earnings reports still a month out, that really doesn't appear to be a reasonable probability.

More likely would be for speculators to take some money off the table and go to cash for the short term, await the inevitable dip in selected stocks and dive in once again at some later date.

The wild card is still the Fed, which had promised three to four rate hikes this year, but remains, as they say, "data dependent." Otherwise, this is quite the dull market.

At least crude oil came off its recent highs. Expect the recent euphoria to turn toward a more realistic price, closer to $30/barrel in the near term.

S&P 500: 2,019.64, -2.55 (0.13%)
Dow: 17,229.13, +15.82 (0.09%)
NASDAQ: 4,750.28, +1.81 (0.04%)

Crude Oil 37.34 -3.01% Gold 1,236.00 -1.86% EUR/USD 1.1102 -0.49% 10-Yr Bond 1.9630 -0.71% Corn 368.75 +1.03% Copper 2.24 -0.07% Silver 15.36 -1.54% Natural Gas 1.82 -0.11% Russell 2000 1,084.25 -0.30% VIX 16.92 +2.55% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4303 -0.53% USD/JPY 113.79 +0.06%

It's a Bear! It's a Bull! No, It's a Blur Market

Money Daily has sought to explain the crooked, maligned markets since 2006, without success, though today, at last, a breakthrough may be at hand.

At last, a definition with which everybody can agree.

After yesterday's quad-engulfing candlestick on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), which would surely, under normal circumstances (whatever qualifies as normal since 2008, nobody is sure) qualify as a key reversal day, markets would have none of it, unless one is to be persuaded to believe that the reverse of a constant grind higher is a quick slam higher.

Up is down, Down is up. Slavery is liberty and all that 1984-ish doublespeak. (h/t to George Orwell)

Are we in a bear market? Hardly. A bull market? Doubtful.

Thus, we inaugurate the Blur Market, wherein all fundamentals are obfuscated by statistics, corrupt data from the BLS, manic pumping from the PPT, the machinations of the ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund), jawboning from the likes of Mario Draghi, Shinzo Abe, Janet Yellen, Stanley Fisher or James Bullard.

It's a market driven by algorithms, unseen by human eyes, throttled up and down by unseen scientists in hidden caverns. The blur market is so fast, microseconds are not quick enough to front-run it. High Frequency Traders (HFTs) fight for nanoseconds of advantage. Didot typefaces print prices in a dadaist diaspora.

There's only one number that matters: 2,130.82

That was the all-time high close on the S&P 500, May 21, 2015. We are just about two months away from that being a year ago, so, are we headed to another all-time high or not?

If we are, the bull market lives on. If not, a bear market is in the cards.

For now, we're in a 'tween market. Not bear, nor bull, but something in between, a 'tween, or a beull or a bulear. Something like that. Maybe we could just call it a blur market, which works on a number of levels.

So, let us. It's all a BLUR.

Friday's massive rise capped the fourth straight week of gains on the major indices. For the Dow, up 7.5% in just the past 20 sessions, Friday's gains put the rally at a solid 1200 points. For the week, the DJIA was up 206.54 (1.21%); the S&P added 22.20 (1.11%); and the NASDAQ posted a gain of 31.44 (0.67%). Friday made certain that the rally did not end, at least on a weekly basis.

While impressive, this looks like nothing more than a cynical cyclical rally, with nothing but hot air and central bank jawboning behind it.

The Friday Blur:
S&P 500: 2,022.19, +32.62 (1.64%)
Dow: 17,213.31, +218.18 (1.28%)
NASDAQ: 4,748.47, +86.31 (1.85%)

Crude Oil 38.51 +1.77% Gold 1,259.50 -1.04% EUR/USD 1.1152 -0.23% 10-Yr Bond 1.9770 +2.49% Corn 364.50 +0.48% Copper 2.24 +1.06% Silver 15.62 +0.49% Natural Gas 1.83 +2.18% Russell 2000 1,086.77 +2.14% VIX 16.55 -8.31% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4383 +0.66% USD/JPY 113.78 +0.56%

Key Reversal As Dow Candlestick Engulfs Previous Four Sessions; ECB's Draghi To Blame

Money Daily been covering about this rally for the past two weeks but really didn't see the handwriting on the wall throughout. While saying the market would continue to rally at least until the ECB rate announcement by Mario Draghi (today), and possibly Yellen and the FOMC (on the 16th), there was no way to know when exactly it would stop or why.

But, now we all know. It was "buy the rumor, sell the news," all along. Everybody figured Draghi would go all in on QE and lowering the reserve rate (rumor) and he did (news), so, therein lies the reasons for first the pump in stocks and then the midday dump as Draghi then backtracked at his press conference, saying not to expect more over-the-top policy moves anytime soon.

Why? Draghi was giving Yellen and the Fed cover to keep rates where they are, for at least another month or meeting.

The main aspects of Draghi's "bazooka" approach are:
-- The key interest rate is dropped from 0.05% to ZERO.
-- Cut its deposit rate by 10 basis points, further into negative territory to -0.4%
-- The marginal lending rate, paid by banks to borrow from the ECB overnight, was cut from 0.3% to to 0.25%
-- Expanded the QE programme to €80bn (£61bn) a month, up from €60n
-- Expanded the LTRTO, offering more easy loans to Eurozone banks

Then we saw the usual late-day comeback, leaving US equity markets virtually unchanged, on a day that was arguably noteworthy and newsworthy. The markets, the speculators, had all of this priced in, and the gyrations were only to square their winners and losers.

This is the game. It's nothing more than a game, has no root in reality, fundamentals, supply/demand or any other tired metric of what we used to fondly call "analysis."

Markets are nothing more than tools for public entertainment and consumption. The central bankers, so long as they have the power to conjure endless amounts of fiat out of thin air, have complete control over all markets.

Finally, we are beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel, though it appears to be just a flickering candle about to be snuffed out.

As far as technical analysis is concerned - again, giving the CNBC types and the marketeers sufficient cover - the Dow candlestick chart shows today as a key reversal day, with today's action - up, then down, then back up - engulfing the previous four sessions on the Dow. Interesting also is the pint at which the rally ended, almost exactly at the 200-day moving average. It's almost as if it was planned, though that kind of statement might brand one as a wearer of tin-foil hats and a believer in astrology or Scientology.

These kinds of "outside" reversals almost always signal a change in direction, so, outside of more malignant market manipulation, stocks should head south on Friday and continue in that general direction heading up to the FOMC meeting Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Upon the Fed keeping rates unchanged, it will be "mission accomplished" for the time being. multiple flavors of options expire on Friday, so expect volatility heading into the end of next week.

Then again, one could hold real assets outside the system, those being anything raised without the assistance of fiat money (think animal husbandry, vegetable gardening and barter), or the hated precious metals and/or gemstones.

In he end, people use money or currency to buy the things they need to lead free, comfortable lives. If one were to master the ability to minimize dependence on the fiat money system and maximize the ability to produce energy, food and goods, there would be little need for any kind of currency except that controlled by the actual buyers and sellers.

There, the survivalist, off-the-grid types make perfect sense.

Thursday's Round-trip Extravaganza:
S&P 500: 1,989.57, +0.31 (0.02%)
Dow: 16,995.13, -5.23 (0.03%)
NASDAQ: 4,662.16, -12.22 (0.26%)

Crude Oil 37.88 -1.07% Gold 1,271.90 +1.15% EUR/USD 1.1179 +1.64% 10-Yr Bond 1.9290 +1.96% Corn 363.00 +0.97% Copper 2.23 -0.31% Silver 15.59 +1.43% Natural Gas 1.80 +3.03% Russell 2000 1,063.99 -0.82% VIX 18.05 -1.58% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4282 +0.49% USD/JPY 113.2420

Oil Glut Yet Prices Higher; Gold, Silver Demand Up, Prices Down

There is a serious disturbance in the Farce called the global economy, and it is the role of central bankers who create absurd amounts of fiat currencies, literally out of thin air.

Policies adopted by the financial elite experts who control nearly all currencies worldwide have caused markets to virtually stop functioning. After seven years of base interest rates at near zero - and recently, below zero - endless stimulus programs otherwise known by the catchy name, quantitative easing, and a serious lack of transparency, regulation, and discipline in all markets, global growth is a non-starter for 2016 and the foreseeable future.

Businesses, fed a diet of easy money for nearly a decade (two decades, if one includes the Greenspan "put" years) are loathe to spend on capital improvements, labor or infrastructure. Businesses are, so to speak, "living off the land," by cutting budgets while fattening the salaries and bonuses of crony CEOs and others occupying the executive suites and boards of directors.

It's a horrible condition, with disinflation and outright deflation popping up in pockets like food production, energy, and most hard commodities (see natural gas and copper). Price discovery has become a function less of supply and demand and more driven by derivative bets, options, credit default swaps, and hedging. Over-finacialization of nearly all markets that matter has turned fundamentals on their heads and what once were functional markets into nothing more than trap-laden casinos. The effect has been to alienate a generation of investors (millenials), impoverish another (retirees) and overburden those not yet ready to enter the economy (the youth). In the middle is generation X, condemned to toil away towards an uncertain future.

The argument that fundamental supply and demand is defunct rests largely on the oil market, currently carrying the largest global glut on record, yet pushed to levels indicative of a shortage. Oil was ranging toward $25 per barrel just a month or so ago; today it is approaching $40, mostly a function of short-covering and naked short selling.

Much the same can be said of the markets for precious metals, the price held down by nefarious forces while the demand continues to expand. In many quarters, gold, silver, and gemstones are considered the only investments worth having and holding. They carry no counterparts risk, are relatively easy to transport and can be converted into money or any other asset with relative ease.

As Bill Bonner and his enlightened crew love to postulate, a day of reckoning is coming, though just exactly when that day arrives and how it is manifested are known to exactly nobody.

It's a mess. Better to put money in a mattress or buy canned goods than risk in capital markets, as moribund and compromised as they are. US equity indices peaked in May of 2015. It's nearly a year from the all-time highs without any rally catalysts in sight.

All eyes and ears will be tuned to the ECB tomorrow, when Mario Draghi does what he can only do, signal more easing, more fraud, and more of the relentless can-kicking that has typified the past seven years.

Nobody is holding his or her breath on this coming non-event because there is no longer any air to breathe.

Wednesday's Wackiness:
S&P 500: 1,989.26, +10.00 (0.51%)
Dow: 17,000.36, +36.26 (0.21%)
NASDAQ: 4,674.38, +25.55 (0.55%)

Crude Oil 38.23 +4.74% Gold 1,253.90 -0.71% EUR/USD 1.1001 -0.06% 10-Yr Bond 1.8920 +3.28% Corn 360.25 -0.07% Copper 2.23 +0.54% Silver 15.31 -0.52% Natural Gas 1.76 +2.92% Russell 2000 1,072.77 +0.46% VIX 18.34 -1.77% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4217 +0.03% USD/JPY 113.3350 +0.60%

Oil Beaten Down Along With Gold, Silver, Stocks

After yesterday's run-up in crude, the obligatory return to red was the order of the day as WTI crude ended below $37/barrel. Not to be missed were the turn-about in gold and silver, but stocks remain mostly on hold for Mario Draghi and the ECB's rate announcement on Thursday.

This is what happens when the entire world revolves around central bankers: lots of nothing, and all investment vehicles returning essentially zero returns on capital, unless one's timing is extraordinary, you're a professional horse handicapper turned day-trader, or one of the various front-running HFTs.

Speaking of timing, Money Daily editor, Fearless Rick, has called out Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter, and his somewhat flimsy assertion that his proprietary fund is up 12.3% year-to-date. Mr. Rick emailed Gartman (see here), and tried to get a subscription to his newsletter, but has heard nothing yet. Money Daily will update with any developments (some interesting information on Mr. Gartman has already been discovered on the internet and a file is being updated... stay tuned)

Today's Mangled Mess:
S&P 500: 1,979.26, -22.50 (1.12%)
Dow: 16,964.10, -109.85 (0.64%)
NASDAQ: 4,648.82, -59.43 (1.26%)

Crude Oil 36.46 -3.80% Gold 1,263.20 -0.06% EUR/USD 1.1006 -0.08% 10-Yr Bond 1.8320 -3.68% Corn 360.75 +0.49% Copper 2.22 -2.89% Silver 15.43 -1.33% Natural Gas 1.72 +1.54% Russell 2000 1,068.18 -2.37% VIX 18.75 +8.07% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4215 -0.33% USD/JPY 112.6420

US Stock Markets Are Massive Frauds, So Are Banks, How About Investment Advisors?

Thanks to frequent articles on Zero Hedge, Money Daily has been entertained by following the investment "wisdom" of one Dennis Gartman, a regular contributor on CNBC, especially on the show, Fast Money.

Now, not everybody has done well this year, but according to his own words, Mr. Gartman claims to be up 12.3% year-to-date. See below (and the original quote on ZH):

For those who wish to follow our progress, we are up 12.3% for the year-to-date, outperforming our International Index rather pleasantly and outperforming the S&P too by 14.4%. We have been quite lucky thus far this year. We are simply hoping that our good fortune thus far obtains through the remainder of the year. If we continue to “Do more of that which is working and less of that which is not”… perhaps our most important Rule of Trading…

So, after the Erin Andrews $55 million verdict set hair on fire yesterday, editor Fearless Rick sent the following request to liz@thegartmanletter.com:

I keep reading that Dennis is up 12.3 to 14% year-to-date, and I would like to know how he’s managed to outperform the markets this year.

Mr. Gartman makes bold statements that affect the thinking of many investors and speculators by his frequent appearances on CNBC.

Essentially, I think he’s a fraud and unless you offer bona fide proof that he’s ahead by what he says he is, I will expose him.

Best regards,

Rick Gagliano
Downtown Magazine
dtmagazine.com

Awaiting a response, or a subpoena. Maybe a drone strike. Stay tuned.

Seven Years Out, The Great Recovery Is Over As Eric Andrews Is Awarded $55 Million She'll Never See

Flash back to March 6, 2009 and what does one find?

The S&P 500 was trading at 666.79, which would eventually become known as "the bottom," the intraday low for stocks after the great crash which began in earnest in October of 2008.

As late as September 19, 2008, the S&P had traded as well the mid 1200s, closing, on that date, at 1255.08. Nearing the end of October, the same index was in the 800s (October 27: 848.92), nearly a 33% haircut in just over a month.

Gains that had taken years to produce were dissipated in less than 30 trading sessions. That was only a sideshow. The slide that began in 2007, started from a high point of 1565.15 (the close on October 9, 2007) had taken a full year to gut the S&P, cutting the valuation nearly in half. The rest of the damage would be done in the fall and winter of 2008-09, for a total rout of 57.4%, wiping out the savings of millions of Americans and foreign investors.

Most people aren't aware of the extraordinary measures taken by the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world to stop the plunge, but perhaps the most instructive - and eventually damaging - measure was taken by the FASB (Federal Accounting Standards Board) on April 2nd, 2009, to suspend rule 157, relieving financial institutions - primarily the too-big-to-fail banks - of the rigors of mark-to-market accounting. The banks would no longer have to value assets at any perceived market value, but at any value they deemed "reasonable" or otherwise flattering to their balance sheets.

At the time, the banks were saddled with billions of dollars worth of nearly-worthless mortgages, which they themselves had originated, or bought, in the bubbly real estate market of the early-to-mid 2000s. The entire bubble they created had burst, assets were impaired, homeowners were walking away from commitments they should never have made on houses they normally could never had qualified to buy.

Eventually, the Fed came in and rescued the banks further, buying up all the toxic paper in various rounds of QE, the last one ending in 2014. By then the markets had recovered, stocks had soared to new, unimaginable heights, and the global economy was pronounced "saved."

But, the FASB has never reinstated rule 157, meaning, in simple terms, that bank assets are still, to this day, based on fictional valuations.

To get an idea just how far down the rabbit hole price discovery has gone, just contemplate for a moment that Erin Andrews has been awarded a judgment of $55 million for being peeped upon in a hotel and having a video of her distributed online. Some models have posed au natural for significantly less.

Seriously, is anybody's body, or their pride, worth $55 million? The hotel she is suing isn't even worth anything close to that amount of money, so, in effect, this jury basically awarded the victim the entire assets of the hotel, and more.

Andrews will never see that money, however. Nobody has all of it. She will get some, her lawyers will get a third or more, of whatever she can recover, but, in essence, Erin Andrews is now a hotel owner.

Yes, she was wronged, but the point is that price discovery was done away with in 2009 with the suspension of rule 157, and nobody can place accurate valuations on anything.

Is gold worth $1200 an ounce, or $600, or $30,000. Is your car worth $35,000? Who knows? It's all relative now.

And relativity, in the sciences at least, is still theoretical.

So is existence. And we're back to where we began. Whoever can set the prices, dictates the terms. For now, the markets - as rigged and manipulated as they are - sets the prices. That's not going to last.

Good night.

S&P 500: 2,001.76, +1.77 (0.09%)
Dow: 17,073.95, +67.18 (0.40%)
NASDAQ: 4,708.25, -8.77 (0.19%)

Crude Oil 37.87 +5.43% Gold 1,268.40 -0.18% EUR/USD 1.1014 -0.0018% 10-Yr Bond 1.9020 +1.01% Corn 359.50 +0.35% Copper 2.28 +0.24% Silver 15.67 -0.15% Natural Gas 1.69 +1.56% Russell 2000 1,094.15 +1.13% VIX 17.35 +2.91% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4257 -0.04% USD/JPY 113.4160 +0.03%

All Eyes on Non-Farm Payrolls, But ECB and FOMC Hold More Intrigue for Stocks

Following Wednesday's low-volume advances (lowest of the year), stocks followed a similar pattern in Thursday's trading regimen, slumping at the open, only to rise through the day and close modestly green.

While the talking heads on Bloomberg and CNBC are hyperventilating over the February non-farm payroll report due out tomorrow morning, the true market-moving events concern central banks and they don't occur until next week and the following, beginning with the ECB policy announcement on March 10, and the FOMC meeting March 15-16.

After ADP's February private sector number coming in at 214,000 Wednesday morning, the market is expecting something in that range from the BLS, with consensus just a shade below 200,000.

Whatever the number, it should weigh on any rate decision the Fed has planned or is considering. Another 25 basis point hike in the federal funds rate at this meeting has been largely discounted by the market, meaning, that if the Fed stands pat on rates, then it is tacit understanding that their goal of four more hikes by the end of the year is very much being scrapped.

There are simply too many negative forces pulling at the Fed for them to do another rate hike. Everything from the fragile US economy to the cratering Yuan and Chinese GDP growth to the nut-case presidential primaries are under consideration by the most politically-motivated central bank in the known universe.

That is to say nothing of the 1500-point hissy fit thrown by the DJIA after the most recent rate increase, in December of last year.

Stocks continue to keep to the script here, with the S&P within hailing distance of 2000, and the Dow closing in fast on 17,000. Both are admirable short-term goals, but they will hardly prove to be persistent. Stocks are becoming severely overbought and overvalued, and charts show all kinds of evidence that the bull run from 2009 has ended. Besides, there's growing fears of a recession looming, especially after the poor performance not only of the past two quarters, but of the general seven-year-long recovery.

The key level is 17,200 for the Dow, a point at which there is a significant patch of heavily-fortified resistance.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the February non-farm payroll report at 8:30 am ET, Friday.

S&P 500: 1,993.40, +6.95 (0.35%)
Dow: 16,943.90, +44.58 (0.26%)
NASDAQ: 4,707.42, +4.00 (0.09%)

Crude Oil 34.60 -0.17% Gold 1,262.10 +1.63% EUR/USD 1.0963 +0.89% 10-Yr Bond 1.83 -0.97% Corn 355.50 -0.21% Copper 2.21 +1.26% Silver 15.23 +1.38% Natural Gas 1.64 -2.09% Russell 2000 1,076.05 +0.97% VIX 16.70 -2.28% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4178 +0.71% USD/JPY 113.65

Market Steady Ahead of NFP; ADP Reports Jobs Creation Strong

The snapback rally in stocks off the January lows cannot be understated, nor can it be stopped. There are simply not enough reasons to not own stocks, being that commodities have been decimated, bonds are beyond the reach or intellect of ordinary investors, and the fact that most of the investment advisors and fund managers of the world are reaching for yield, putting stocks first, to the detriment of everything and anything else.

But, today was a day for repositioning, after ADP got the party started by reporting that private employers added 214,000 jobs in February. [Full report here]

Stocks initially had the blues, trading in the red for most of the morning, until European markets closed, then quickly erasing all losses, hugging the UNCH line for the remainder of the session.

While stocks were lacking in volatility and volume, commodities got a bit of a boost, with oil, gold and silver headed handily higher.

It was a lackluster session due to uncertainty about next week's FOMC meeting, one which the Fed could conceivably raise interest rates, though analysts have largely dismissed that possibility.

The interim rally in stocks has, since the middle of February, clawed back more than two-thirds of the losses incurred during the six-week decline from the start of January to the middle of February. Nothing seems to be able to send stocks back to their 2016 lows, though getting back to all-time highs would be something of a surprise, considering the slow growth rates of economies around the world, and especially in developed nations.

There's a week left before the FOMC meeting, at which point sentiment may take a turn to the negative, though, if the Fed continues to keep rates at their abnormally low rates, the party crowd on Wall Street is likely to break out the champagne, hats, and favors, bidding up equities beyond reasonable valuations (some say they already have).

This is just normal churn, but no time to either stake out new positions nor panic. The markets seem content - like the US economy - to muddle along, delivering unsensational profits in a low-inflation, low-growth environment.

Friday's non-farm payroll report - as meaningless and unprovable as their spurious numbers might be - may provide some idea of sentiment going forward, but, at this point, the Fed is holding the most volatile hand of all the players, and they're not likely to bluff or fold. In typical Fed fashion, they'll be more likely to check, rather than raise the ante or call the hands.

Wednesday's Sleeper:
S&P 500: 1,986.45, +8.10 (0.41%)
DOW: 16,899.32, +34.24 (0.20%)
NASDAQ: 4,703.42, +13.83 (0.29%)

Crude Oil 34.65 +0.73% Gold 1,241.70 +0.89% EUR/USD 1.0867 -0.01% 10-Yr Bond 1.8480 +0.76% Corn 355.75 +0.07% Copper 2.19 +2.21% Silver 15.01 +1.69% Natural Gas 1.67 -4.13% Russell 2000 1,065.67 +1.06% VIX 17.12 -3.28% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4079 +0.91% USD/JPY 113.38

Stars Align for Markets Amid Super Tuesday March Madness

While the Dems and Reps fight in various primaries for the right to represent as a party leader of the USA, US equity markets calmly said adieu at the opening bell and never gave a backward glance.

Tuesday's advance was one of the top three of the year, pushing off from the 50-day moving average on the Dow, which may well have been the anointed starting point for this leg of the extended rally. The close today was at the best level in nearly two months, something of a needed salve for banged-up bulls.

While there was little in the way of encouraging news for stocks to sound off so vociferously, there was certainly no absence of chart-wise subjectivism from which to spark.

As for a relationship to Donald Trump's or Hillary Clinton's seemingly unstoppable rise to become the nominee of their respective parties, there is probably none, though wiser people have made dumber bets that Hillary will be the eventual next president and further take out the case that she will be good for the economy. That happens to be the confirmed thinking of the status quo, which sees more Clinton-esque policies as somehow good for Wall Street (note: big hitters on the street have given heartily to her campaign and to the Clinton Foundation, whereas Mr. Trump has been largely self-funded).

Even bonds were in alignment with the general mood, the 10-year note closing at a multi-week high of 1.83%.

S&P 500: 1,978.35, +46.12 (2.39%)
Dow: 16,865.08, +348.58 (2.11%)
NASDAQ: 4,689.60, +131.65 (2.89%)

Crude Oil 34.39 +1.90% Gold 1,236.60 +0.18% EUR/USD 1.0871 -0.12% 10-Yr Bond 1.83 +5.40% Corn 356.00 -0.28% Copper 2.15 +0.63% Silver 14.92 +0.01% Natural Gas 1.74 +1.46% Russell 2000 1,054.49 +1.99% VIX 17.70 -13.87% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.3950 +0.17% USD/JPY 113.9270 +1.32%

Stormy Monday Portends Trouble for Bullish Case

It's the last day of February. The market bulls could have added a little window dressing to make their case, but, instead, stocks vacillated from the open until just before noon, with losses mounting through the afternoon and into the close.

Not only is this an end of month Monday, but it is also the start of "jobs week," wherein all eyes will be peeled open in anticipation of Friday's non-farm payroll report for February. The structure of the market and the charts suggest that the rally of the prior two weeks has not only stalled out, but lost its bearings, since oil was markedly higher on the day. Stocks did not follow.

The problem with the oil/stocks pairing is that they are not and should not be aligned. Lower oil prices, have, over time, proven to be a boost for economies, but not necessarily the stock market. In reality, lower oil and distillate prices should be an overall boon for businesses, lowering a variable cost, thus potentially boosting profits. With the massive, global oversupply of crude that exists presently, the natural price of oil should be closer to $20 per barrel than $30.

Since the oil/stocks dichotomy is likely a false paradigm, the decoupling exposes the rigged market for what it really is: front-running algos, insider trading, forced trades at stops, short-covering rallies on vaporish volume and insidious surprise rebounds off questionable low points.

That's what makes today's slide all the more concerning. Perhaps the masks are coming off and the knives are coming out. We are undoubtably at the beginning of a secular bear market, with the long-toothed bull dying back in May of 2015. It's been downhill - with assorted fits and starts - since then, and markets are still in a search for the bottom.

Perhaps a one-off isn't enough to convince the bulls that the party is over. Stocks may well resume their rally as the week continues. As noted in Money Daily's weekend recap, the rally should have legs through the FOMC meeting before capitulation commences. However, it won't be the first time to be proven wrong, and surely not the last.

S&P 500: 1,932.23, -15.82 (0.81%)
Dow: 16,516.50, -123.47 (0.74%)
NASDAQ: 4,557.95, -32.52 (0.71%)

Crude Oil 33.89 +3.39% Gold 1,239.30 +1.55% EUR/USD 1.0877 -0.50% 10-Yr Bond 1.74 -1.25% Corn 357.25 -0.63% Copper 2.13 +0.19% Silver 14.94 +1.50% Natural Gas 1.71 -4.63% Russell 2000 1,033.90 -0.32% VIX 20.55 +3.74% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.3919 +0.41% USD/JPY 112.7050 -0.88%

Stocks Gain For Second Straight Week; Rally Should Continue to FOMC Meeting

Chalking up another week of gains, US equity markets are putting the disaster that was January in the rear view mirror and moving on. The week ending February 26 was the second consecutive week of gains for the three major indices, though this one was not as potent as the first, signaling that while the rally in stocks may continue for some time, its momentum almost certainly is on the wane.

Over the past two weeks, the indices have clawed back roughly half of the losses suffered in January and the first week of February, a significant advance. Chart-watchers will be looking at key levels on the Dow and, especially, the S&P, seeking exit points before the eventual next downturn.

For the Dow, the next critical level is in the range between 17,200 and 17,350, about a two percent gain from where the market closed on Friday. The S&P is eyeing the 1985 to 2015 level, where significant resistance resides, again, roughly two percent from the close on the 26th.

The NASDAQ, already bumping up against its 50-day moving average, may have already lost momentum, though a move through the 4,620 mark could convince bulls that there's more upside on the horizon. The NASDAQ was the big winner, percentage-wise, on the week, but it remains at the heart of skepticism, loaded with risky energy and tech stocks, which comprise a hefty share of its index.

If the NASDAQ rolls over, this mini-rally could end quickly. A resumption of already well-established bear market conditions could extend into the Spring. One way or another, it's difficult seeing stocks surpassing the points from which they opened the new year. There's still much more risk to the downside than there are opportunities for a continuation of any rally.

While the past two weeks may have been "buy the dip" conditions in an oversold market, the converse, "selling the rip" should become apparent by the end of next week or, if the market and its participants grow increasingly patient and/or greedy, after the FOMC meeting on March 15-16.

A move to the downside prior to the meeting would signal a growing unease concerning Fed policies, which, to this point, have been less-than-reassuring to bullish plungers. While there's not much conviction among Fed-watcvhers that another rate increase is forthcoming, the risk remains. Another 25 basis point hike in the Federal Funds rate would send stocks to a semi-permananet shower. That's why the Fed won't move at this meeting, and the market pretty much knows it, so stocks are free to rally and investors are also free to take short-term profits.

With options expiration - a triple witching event - coming quick on the heels of the FOMC meeting, things could get very interesting on the 16th and 17th, as Fed policy is unveiled and the bulls have another chance to slaughter the shorts.

Look for stocks to gyrate at current levels, without much in the way of conviction, this week and into the next. Of course, the BLS non-farm payroll report for February will be closely followed, even though it has cemented its status as the worst barometer of both labor conditions and the general economy. The massaged numbers from the BLS are so statistically insignificant that they may well become more of an asterisk than an important inflection point as time progresses and the bear market resurfaces.

For now, however, the bulls have found a sweet spot. The smart money will be getting out shortly, the smarter money will squeeze out even more gains, and, as usual, the unsuspecting buy-and-hold muppets will be mercilessly stabbed, slashed and burned at the top of the short-term rally. The last two weeks of March and the advent of Spring should convince even the most optimistic that stocks have nowhere to go but down.

For the Week:
S&P 500: +30.27 (1.58)
Dow: +247.98 (1.51)
NASDAQ: +86.04 (1.91)

Friday's Foibles:
S&P 500: 1,948.05, -3.65 (0.19%)
Dow: 16,639.97, -57.32 (0.34%)
NASDAQ: 4,590.47, +8.27 (0.18%)

Crude Oil 32.84 -0.70% Gold 1,223.00 -1.28% EUR/USD 1.0932 0.00% 10-Yr Bond 1.7620 +3.83% Corn 358.75 -0.49% Copper 2.12 +2.29% Silver 14.71 -3.22% Natural Gas 1.79 +0.11% Russell 2000 1,037.18 +0.54% VIX 19.81 +3.66% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.3872 +0.03% USD/JPY 113.9850 0.00%

Tickle Me Elmo Version Of Durable Goods Sends Stocks Soaring

Reactions to this morning's January Durable Goods report ran from the mildly surprised to grossly exuberant, with the most apropos metaphor being the one in which the stock market is Christmas, the traders are children (not far from the truth) and the report was a Tickle Me Elmo doll.

The doll was immediately unwrapped, hugged and unconditionally loved by all the kids, who seemed to wish that Christmas would never end, sending the major indices solidly higher and yields on bonds noticeably lower.

It was as though the year was hard, winter came early and any present would have sufficed to ease some of the woes, though this particular gift was simply perfection, wiping away the past six weeks of anguish and anger, tears, fears and jeers. Even oil gained 2 1/2%, finishing just over $33/bbl.

For the record, the rise in durable goods was 4.9%, the best move in 10 months.

According to a one-time reading of the stock market (today), there are no longer any issues regarding ultra-low interest rates, the slowdown in China (the SSE slipped by 6.41% overnight), chaos in Europe, or the ongoing wars in Syria and Ukraine.

We know this is untrue, but today's action would have one believe that a bull market was in full gear, GDP was booming at 5% and peace had broken out around the globe. Such are the vicissitudes in a market driven solely by headlines and not by fundamentals, because, in reality, the problems have not been resolved - not the ones from last week, last month, last year, or even from 2008. The issues remain, as do the fast-buck artists populating the trading stations and computer terminals of the markets.

Tomorrow should prove more prescient, with the second estimate of 2015 4th quarter GDP hitting the wires at 8:30 am, a good hour prior to ringing the opening bell.

But today was an undoubted victory for the bulls. Let them celebrate tonight and face the music as time presses forward. The Gold Bugs and Silver Eagles continue to be constrained, shackled, handcuffed, quarantined.

Best quote of the day: "Nobody will see it coming." They usually don't.

Tickle These, Elmo:
S&P 500: 1,951.70, +21.90 (1.13%)
Dow: 16,697.29, +212.30 (1.29%)
NASDAQ: 4,582.21, +39.60 (0.87%)

Crude Oil 33.06 +2.83% Gold 1,235.30 -0.31% EUR/USD 1.1028 +0.09% 10-Yr Bond 1.6970 -2.58% Corn 360.25 -1.17% Copper 2.08 -0.86% Silver 15.15 -0.93% Natural Gas 1.79 -2.56% Russell 2000 1,031.58 +0.93% VIX 19.11 -7.77% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.3964 +0.22% USD/JPY 112.8855

Crash Is A Certainty Despite Today's Idiocy

Fundamentals - whether they be in individual stocks or the macro economy - have not mattered for a long time, but today's crash and dash was an epic.

Stocks fell out of bed at the open, with the major indices down one to 1 1/2 percent, and then gained for the remainder of the session ending marginally in the green.

On Friday, the second revision to fourth quarter 2015 GDP will be issued, after the first estimate was a gain of a paltry 0.7%. With proper accounting in place, the US economy likely shrank by 1.25%, but it's unlikely the correct data will show that. The criminal enterprise of government - from local to federal - is about to be hit by a typhoon otherwise known as an unhappy citizenry with a new hero in Donald Trump.

The status quo is about to become status done. It may not happen this week, or next, or for six months, but, rest assured, by this time next year (probably sooner) the United States is going to look very different from the mess the banks and politicians and Wall Street has produced.

Today's nonsense:
S&P 500: 1,929.80, +8.53 (0.44%)
Dow: 16,484.99, +53.21 (0.32%)
NASDAQ: 4,542.61, +39.02 (0.87%)

Crude Oil 32.26 +1.22% Gold 1,230.20 +0.62% EUR/USD 1.1011 -0.08% 10-Yr Bond 1.7420 -0.17% Corn 364.75 -0.55% Copper 2.12 +0.45% Silver 15.26 +0.10% Natural Gas 1.83 +0.27% Russell 2000 1,022.08 +0.98% VIX 20.72 -1.24% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.3925 -0.71% USD/JPY 112.1830 +0.14%

Everybody, Limbo!

Stocks and oil slumped, while gold and silver held their own as the market took another pause to reflect on the possibility of a Trump presidency, housing prices which seem to be reaching an affordability limit and a two-week wait until the next FOMC meeting.

For the Trmpster, Las Vegas is a second home to him, so it's only fitting that he's expected to win Tuesday's caucuses in Nevada handily.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index for December, 2015, showed gains in prices for median homes increasing month-over-month and year-over-year.

Stocks appeared to be charting their own course, with stocks falling into the red early and staying near the lows of the day for much of the session. After ramping from losses two weeks ago, the current mini-rally has run out of steam, and there doesn't seem to be much on the bid to push prices higher in the near term.

The price of crude fell by more than 4 1/2% as recent talks of a production freeze by Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran (depending upon which source you wish to believe) turned out to be - like the cease-fire in Syria - all bluster and no bite.

Midweek, stocks are looking at a slight bias to the positive, as Tuesday's losses failed to overcome Monday's winners. Markets are ostensibly entering a late-winter limbo phase, as volatility and geopolitical tensions have leveled off.

S&P 500: 1,921.27, -24.23 (1.25%)
Dow: 16,431.78, -188.88 (1.14%)
NASDAQ: 4,503.58, -67.02 (1.47%)

Crude Oil 31.85 -4.61% Gold 1,227.50 +1.44% EUR/USD 1.1018 -0.07% 10-Yr Bond 1.7450 -1.19% Corn 362.25 -1.43% Copper 2.10 -0.76% Silver 15.31 +0.80% Natural Gas 1.83 -1.61% Russell 2000 1,012.15 -0.94% VIX 20.98 +8.26% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4021 -0.92% USD/JPY 112.0950 -0.76%

Donald Trump Shock Wave Shakes Nation

Winning every available delegate in a truly historic presidential primary victory in South Carolina on Saturday, business billionaire Donald J. Trump now sets his sights on the state of Nevada and its upcoming caucus on Tuesday.

After what appears to be a sure win for Mr. Trump, the big test comes the following Tuesday, when 13 states will hold Republican primary votes, led by the inartfully-named "SEC" states of Alabama, Georgia, Virginia, Arkansas, Texas and Tennessee. Equally important are tests in Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Colorado and Alaska. 595 delegates are up for grabs on March 1. Texas alone accounts for 155, and is one of the few states in which Donald Trump does not lead. There, Ted Cruz, who is a senator from the state, holds a slim advantage, though the latest poll was taken prior to Trump's victory in the Palmetto State.

No candidate that has won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has failed to capture the Republican nomination, a fact that completely eluded the commentators on the Sunday talk show circuit, most of whom spent their air time desperately searching for an antidote to Trump fever, which is sweeping a nation angry with politicians, politics, a do-nothing congress and an administration that has sold its constituency down the proverbial river.

Trump offers a refreshing change of pace from the status quo. From his apparent off-the-cuff remarks to his infectious enthusiasm, Trump embodies a new paradigm for the American electorate and its making the establishment parties and the supine news media quake in its collective booties.

The message is clear and unqualified. Trump promises to build a wall on the Mexican border to halt the flow of illegal immigrants, and, to make sure nobody misses the message, Trump always reminds supporters and detractors alike that he'll make Mexico pay for it. Other policy initiatives include bringing back American jobs from places like Mexico, China and Vietnam, taking better care of veterans, destroying ISIS, cutting taxes for the middle class and business, repatriating profits earned in foreign countries by American enterprises, and protecting the rights of American citizens outlined by the Bill of Rights, especially the second amendment, the right to bear arms.

Not surprisingly, Trump's forthrightness and honesty go a long way in an age dominated by skepticism, innuendo and false prophets. His campaign message to "Make America Great Again" resounds in a country fed up with liberal concepts like multiculturalism, atheism and statist elitism. Trump, while himself a very rich man, is self-made and down-to-earth in ways that Americans have demonstrably appreciated. His approach is common-sensical and sometimes bordering on comical, calling politicians incompetent, self-important and dishonest, most of which applies in spades to the current crop of paid-off crony representatives of lobbyists, big business and special interests.

And then today, there was this:

It is so important to audit The Federal Reserve, and yet Ted Cruz missed the vote on the bill that would allow this to be done.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 22, 2016

If Trump is willing to abolish Obamacare, Common Core and reopen the wounds of 9/11 and the Iraq War, why not tackle the biggest buffoons in the room, the rentiers of the Eccles Building, the clueless illuminati which has brought us bubbles and busts and threatens to do the same again?

The world is waiting.

Today's Rigged Results:
S&P 500: 1,945.50, +27.72 (1.45%)
Dow: 16,620.66, +228.67 (1.40%)
NASDAQ: 4,570.61, +66.18 (1.47%)

Crude Oil 33.60 +5.83% Gold 1,209.40 -1.74% EUR/USD 1.1026 -0.96% 10-Yr Bond 1.7660 +1.03% Corn 368.00 +0.68% Copper 2.11 +1.81% Silver 15.19 -1.22% Natural Gas 1.86 -0.16% Russell 2000 1,021.74 +1.16% VIX 19.38 -5.60% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4148 -1.09% USD/JPY 112.9550

Stocks Finish Week Mixed to Flat, as CPI Confuses Markets

Odd for a day of options expiration, the day on Wall Street was marked by light volatility and a narrow trading range, the tone set for confusion prior to the open when CPI showed a spike in January to 0.3%, the biggest jump in more than four years.

On a year-over-year basis, excluding food and energy, CPI grew by 2.2%, the highest inflation rate since June 2012. While on the one hand, the data was supportive of further hikes in the federal funds rate, investors were concerned that such a data-driven move by the Fed might cause further declines in stocks.

With that, equities got stuck in cautious trading, ending just about where they started the day.

The minor moves did little to derail the mini-rally that comprised the better part of the holiday-shortened week.

The Dow finished ahead for the week by 418.15 (+2.62%); the S&P added 53.00 points (+2.84%); the NASDAQ ended ahead by 166.92 (+3.85%). The gains were the best of the seven weeks of trading this year, though the indices remain mired in the red zone.

With no FOMC meeting in February, investors will have to ride along until March 15-16, the dates of the next Open Market Committee, though odds are still in favor of the committee keeping rates at 0.25-0.50%, considering the poor performance of stocks following the first rate hike in December.

As was the case at the end of last year, the Fed is stuck in a serious spot, hoping to hike rates three more times this year, while the US and global economies continue to look ragged, worn out and teetering on the brink of recession.

About the best the Fed can offer in its assessment of US markets is that at least they're doing better than all other advanced economies, including France, UK, Germany, Japan, China, and Australia.

Friday's Totals:
S&P 500: 1,917.78, -0.05 (0.00%)
Dow: 16,391.99, -21.44 (0.13%)
NASDAQ: 4,504.43, +16.89 (0.38%)

Crude Oil 31.71 -3.70% Gold 1,232.10 +0.47% EUR/USD 1.1133 +0.01% 10-Yr Bond 1.7480 -0.63% Corn 365.00 -0.14% Copper 2.09 +0.58% Silver 15.44 +0.02% Natural Gas 1.80 -2.65% Russell 2000 1,010.01 +0.53% VIX 20.53 -5.13% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4406 0.00% USD/JPY 112.5750 0.00%

Chinks In The Global Ponzi Armor

What the central banks have constructed today as a "global economy" would make Bernie Madoff blush for all its arrogance and chutzpah.

The Fed buys Treasury bills, notes and bonds from the US government, the French government, Japan, Germany, UK, Australia, China, and the central banks of those countries do likewise. In essence, they are all borrowing from each other, and all of them, in the aggregate - and often enough singularly - are insolvent. It's the world's largest kiting scheme, being played on a global scale with money created out of thin air, backed by debt, most of which will never be repaid.

This kind of scam is typically known as a pyramid scheme, an airplane game, or, a Ponzi scheme, in which the creators and early adopters receive the bulk of the benefit, and those last in are left whining about promises made and unkept, with a loss of their investment and great remorse.

When one views the global economic structure from outside, it's clear that the creators of the Ponzi are the central banks, the early adopters are governments, and the vast majority of losers are savers, investors, retirees and, eventually, the young and future generations, who will inherit literally, a world of hurt, where the assets have been stripped away, wealth belongs to an upper, upper echelon of self-annoited masters, and social mobility is largely a myth.

Already, in the United States - the wealthiest nation in the world - there is evidence that the next generation to retire beyond he baby boomers, will be less well off than the previous one. Baby boomers have been retiring steadily, but their wealth has been neutered by the Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) of the Fed (soon to become NIRP), the COLAs (Cost of Living Adjustment) has been likewise zeroed out due to recalibration of how inflation is measured by the government, and taxes will take care of the rest. And that's just the Social Security end of it.

The Federal government has already put in place methods and scenarios in which they can confiscate the holdings of retirees, in 401k confiscations, wealth extraction taxes and "national emergency" legislation. In fact, senior debt holders (derivatives) would already have priority over depositors in an orderly liquidation of a major bank.

There's only one way to win at this game, and that's to not play. If possible, one would work outside the system, avoiding all taxation and contributions to unemployment insurance, social (in)security, worker's compensation theft, and the latest money extraction scheme, the ACA, otherwise known as Obamacare. Savings would likewise have to be outside the system, acquiring and holding everything from undeveloped land to precious metals, gems, to canned food, tools and machinery of trades.

It's a tough game to play, though, as the global Ponzi scheme continues to unravel in front of our very eyes, one which must be given consideration, even as a partial remedy to outright wealth confiscation through inflation, taxation or fiat.

Today's notch in the Ponzi wood:
S&P 500: 1,917.83, -8.99 (0.47%)
Dow: 16,413.43, -40.40 (0.25%)
NASDAQ: 4,487.54, -46.53 (1.03%)

Crude Oil 32.73 -0.76% Gold 1,231.30 +1.64% EUR/USD 1.1112 -0.12% 10-Yr Bond 1.76 -3.30% Corn 366.25 -0.27% Copper 2.07 -0.22% Silver 15.42 +0.28% Natural Gas 1.85 -4.63% Russell 2000 1,004.71 -0.64% VIX 21.64 -3.00% BATS 1000 20,682.61 -0.29% GBP/USD 1.4338 +0.34% USD/JPY 113.2550 -0.74%

Market Moves on Fiction

Money Daily's new policy will be (most of the time) to just post the closing figures when stocks close to the upside and offer more analysis and "insight" when the markets close in the red, sometimes, when we feel like it, or not.

After all the carnage that's happened this year, apparently, the bulls are back for another slaughter. Bulls, being the central banks of the world, are desperately buying equities in an attempt to shore up the last vestiges of the industrial revolution, information age and dot-com 3.0.

The current three-day rally offers the same kind of background as all of the previous uplifting moves in stocks; nothing of lasting value.

Today's fiction:
DJIA: 16,453.83, +257.42
S&P 500: 1,926.82, +31.24
NASDAQ: 4,534.07, +98.11

Crude Oil 31.00 +6.75% Gold 1,210.20 +0.17% EUR/USD 1.1135 +0.09% 10-Yr Bond 1.8190 +2.31% Corn 367.00 -0.07% Copper 2.07 +1.05% Silver 15.36 +0.20% Natural Gas 1.93 +1.21% Russell 2000 1,011.13 +1.54% VIX 22.31 -7.47% BATS 1000 20,743.15 +1.55% GBP/USD 1.4294 +0.04% USD/JPY 113.9950 -0.17%

Crooked Markets Will Remain At or Above Key Levels Until the End

Pretty much within a few percent either way, the key levels for economic fraud remain at DJIA, 16,000; S&P 500, 1,800; NASDAQ, 4,500.

Global equity markets are being bought by central banks. Eight years ago, Money Daily told you to move your money out of retirement accounts, 401k and IRAs into cash, precious metals and useful machinery. It's still not too late.

DJIA: 16,196.41, +222.57
S&P 500: 1,895.58, +30.80
NASDAQ: 4,435.95, +98.44

Crude Oil 28.91 -1.80% Gold 1,204.30 -2.83% EUR/USD 1.1144 -0.16% 10-Yr Bond 1.7780 +1.72% Corn 361.50 +0.77% Copper 2.05 +1.03% Silver 15.27 -3.29% Natural Gas 1.90 -3.10% Russell 2000 995.80 +2.45% VIX 24.11 -5.08% BATS 1000 20,426.37 +1.68% GBP/USD 1.4304 -0.91% USD/JPY 114.0750 -0.35%

Stocks Always Rebound After Sound Drubbings... Except When They Don't

Regular readers of Money Daily may notice that our editorial point of view - on days like today - sees no reason for stocks to go higher for just about any reason.

There's a method to the madness: it's because the economy stinks and most of the stocks that comprise the major averages are either overpriced or making use of devious accounting tactics to hide the truth.

Today was textbook manipulation to the upside, and, as it turns out, insufficient to cover the losses from earlier in the week. That's the problem with glowing headlines about stocks going up: the writers of such headlines and articles fail to point out that these stocks are coming off being beaten down.

For instance, today's gain on Bank of America (BAC) was 7%, but, it closed at 11.95. It was 18 six months ago, and 14 just a few weeks ago. Some for WTI crude oil, which was up a whopping 11.33% today. Outstanding. However, the closing price was $29.18, more than a 70% decline from 18 months ago.

Anybody even remotely suggesting that the economy and/or equity markets are sound should be shackled, drug off to the nearest body of water and thrown in. Stupidity (from central banks and paid economists) is what got the markets and the economy into the current mess.

Enough is enough, today's results notwithstanding.

For the week:
S&P 500: -15.27 (-0.81%)
Dow: -231.13 (-1.43%)
NASDAQ: -25.63 (-0.59%)

Today's fancy, farcical feast:
S&P 500: 1,864.78, +35.70 (1.95%)
Dow: 15,973.84, +313.66 (2.00%)
NASDAQ: 4,337.51, +70.67 (1.66%)

Crude Oil 29.18 +11.33% Gold 1,239.30 -0.68% EUR/USD 1.1250 -0.57% 10-Yr Bond 1.7480 +6.33% Corn 358.75 -0.42% Copper 2.03 +1.37% Silver 15.76 -0.25% Natural Gas 1.97 -1.45% Russell 2000 971.99 +1.92% VIX 25.40 -9.74% BATS 1000 20,089.57 +1.80% GBP/USD 1.4499 +0.10% USD/JPY 113.2750 +0.60%

How To Tell The Economy Is Really Horrible

A number of interesting developments highlighted today's off-the-street action concerning US stock markets and the general global economy. They were all internet-related, but have nothing to do with the share prices of the companies affected, but first, let's take a recap of the actual carnage in the markets today.

Asia was awash in red ink, as Japan circles the monetary drain (must be Adam Smith's "invisible hand" pulling the plug) sending the Nikkei down to new depths, as noted below, along with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, which suffered an even more severe loss in points and percentage:

Nikkei 225: 15,713.39, -372.05, -2.31%
Hang Seng Index 18,545.80, -742.37, -3.85%

With China's markets closed for the week as the country celebrates Chinese New Year, over in Hong Kong, it was back to work after a three-day hiatus. The HSI fell out at the open and never recovered. As many in the US apparently do not know, all of Asia's major markets - including Australia, recently - are in bear market territory. The Hang Seng topped out at 28,588 in late April, 2015. Today's loss puts it down 35% from its highs.

While the Asian markets were spitting up blood, Europe opened with a bang to the downside, as Sweden announced its central bank was cutting interest rates further into the negative. Sweden’s Riksbank cut its benchmark interest rate from -0.35% to -0.5%. So, theoretically, anyone wishing to keep 100,000 Krona in a Swedish bank has the awesome privilege of paying the bank 500 of those Krona for the year.

That, in addition to the ongoing banking collapse (Duetshe Bank, in particular), sent Euro stock bourses reeling. Germany's DAX was off 2.93%. In England, the FTSE was down 2.36%. France's CAC 40 fell by 4.05%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 was battered some 108 points, a 3.90% downside.

US traders left no stone unturned, sending the markets close to the August lows and the NASDAQ within 50 points of the magic bear market line (-20%), until a spurious story about Saudi oil cuts saved the day around 2:30 pm. The Dow was down more than 400 points at the lows, and there was some talk about the S&P bouncing off a key level at 1812. Truth be told, key levels and support lines aren't going to matter much in coming days, weeks and months, because there is growing evidence that recession has arrived in the US, just as it has washed up on the shores of Asia and Europe.

Now, back to those off-Wall Street developments that offer many clues on how to know the economy isn't doing very well.

First, there was the outage at ZeroHedge.com just as the market was opening. Anybody who wants the straight, uncensored, bearish view of markets instinctively heads for "the Hedge" as it is known, the site famous for it's inveterate grinding on the wheels of finance. An apparent DDOS attack took the site offline for about 30 minutes and was the second such attack in as many weeks.

While the culprit is unknown, tin-foil cap types point to the NSA or another government agency which wishes to keep at least a leash on the unruly junkyard dog.

Second, MSN Money disabled comments on all its stories. While news of this was not reported widely, its unknown exactly when the company decided it didn't want to hear from its readers. MSN Money follows the lead of Bloomberg, which disabled commenting across its web properties last year. Censorship. It's what's for dinner, and you can't complain about it.

Third, Janet Yellen completed her annual testimony to congress today with a visit to the Senate Banking Committee, chaired by Richard Shelby (R-AL), and failed to goose the markets. When the Fed Chair has less influence on markets than a teen beauty queen at a gay pride rally, take that as a sign markets are more than a little jittery.

Gold and silver continued to rally, with gold up more than $50 at one point in the day. Silver was fast approaching $16/oz. It was under $15 as of Monday's fix. The two precious metals are the best-performing assets (along with select bonds) of 2016.

And finally, Yahoo Editor-in-Chief, Andy Serwer, had to pen this little gem of statist nonsense, explaining that nobody knows why stocks are going down. Server proves that he has quit an imagination, or none.

All in all, it appears the media, government, and the financial world are not about ready to let the muppets get a feeling that something bad is heading their way, despite Yellen fielding questions about the Fed being "out of bullets" and negative interest rates.

The status quo is getting very, very nervous and it's beginning to show. With the US heading into a three-day weekend (Monday is President's Day. In case your boss didn't tell you, you don't have to come in.) and China's markets re-opening on Monday, tomorrow's trading might be more than just a little interesting. The week has gone badly so far, and it is doubtful many will want to head into the break long.



Hate Crime for Thursday:
S&P 500: 1,829.08, -22.78 (1.23%)
Dow: 15,660.18, -254.56 (1.60%)
NASDAQ: 4,266.84, -16.76 (0.39%)

Crude Oil 27.30 -0.55% Gold 1,247.00 +4.39% EUR/USD 1.1316 +0.32% 10-Yr Bond 1.64 -3.58% Corn 360.00 -0.07% Copper 2.01 -0.72% Silver 15.80 +3.36% Natural Gas 1.99 -2.79% Russell 2000 953.72 -1.01% VIX 28.14 +7.04% BATS 1000 19,734.69 -1.33% GBP/USD 1.4484 -0.35% USD/JPY 112.5900 -0.01%

Yellen's Congressional Testimony Fails to Inspire Confidence

As Janet Yellen testified to the House of Representatives (on Thursday, she speaks and takes questions from the Senate), stocks hung on her every, stuttering, stammering word, but eventually fell in late trading as the Fed Chair seemed a bit too concerned about recent data, stock declines and global tensions to allow congress or investors any happy talk on the now-stalled "recovery."

S&P: 1851.86, -0.35 (-0.02%)
Dow: 15914.74, -99.64 (-0.62%)
NASDAQ: 4283.59, +14.83 (+).35%)

As per this article, JP Morgan economists are now "not all that worried" about negative interest rates in the US, my response:

Of course, negative interest rates are the embodiment of absolute insanity, madness of the markets. Whats worse, perhaps, is that some commentators are touting that this will bring on hyperinflation, though none of them explain the mechanism.

Here at Money Daily, the widely-held belief is that if rates go any lower, we will have an outright deflationary depression, or, an extension of the deflationary depression which has been underway since 2008. We've been hearing about hyperinflation for years now, and, while there admittedly is some inflation, there's more deflation, especially when it comes to cash.

If the banks go NIRP and put on more capital controls (ban on cash not going to actually occur in some places), cash will surely be king, as it was in the Great Depression. Gold and silver should be worth even more, but that's not until the COMEX gets stung (still waiting on that one).

Anybody who's read "When Money Dies" by Adam Fergusson should recall that during Germany's Weimar, the farmers were barely affected until near the end when hordes of people came out from the cities and actually slaughtered animals and raided crop stores.

There's a free PDF, though this is not recommended for everyone - it's somewhat dense:

When Money Dies: The Nightmare of the Weimar …

In the meantime, farmers figure on getting started with seedlings in about three weeks here in (now, finally) snowy upstate NY. Then, investors with any sense should go long vegetable stands. If the banks want to charge money to hold cash, figure people will be more than willing to exchange it for FOOD.

The central bankers have lost their minds. Ask a farmer about storage costs for cash and you'll probably hear, after a long, sidewards stare, that he'd be happy to help you out, since he has plenty of storage for livestock, tools, equipment, produce, and his family (commonly known as a home or household).

People in a city or large town/village should be concerned. Out in the country, not an issue. Besides, this madness will only last - at best - a year. Donald Trump will be president and life will get better. We are (pun intended) banking on it.

This, from a poster called "The Continental," is apropos:

Positive interest rates cause capital to form. Negative interest rates destroy capital.

The banks are desperate to prevent the bond bubble from collapse and are extrapolating to negative interest rates. In short, it's game over for the dollar and its fiat currency brethren.

Central bank reserves were growing exponentially after 1948 up to mid 2014 whilst going vertical they suddenly stopped and plateaued. In the last year, ~$1 trillion of reserves have "disappeared" the collective balance sheets of the world. This means that cash/credit dollars are being created while counterbalancing bonds are being destroyed. This is monetization at its worst. The reserve base of the currency is slowly vanishing.

In the short run, cash dollars will become scarce and valuable. In the long run there is nothing, not even bonds, backing cash dollars and they will collapse (hyperinflate) when trillions of dollars return home looking for assets to convert to.

Buying physical gold (and silver) at any price is not only a no brainer vis-à-vis protecting capital; it is financial suicide not to buy gold.

Stocks Finish Flat, But Internals Signal Something Is Seriously Wrong

US Stocks closed today marginally on the downside, though appearances can be deceiving, as there was outright catastrophe in Japan which spilled over into worried European markets.

With Chinese markets (including the SSE and Hang Seng) the Nikkei took a magnificent beating on Tuesday, losing 918 points, a 5.40% loss on the day, sending the main index of Japan further into bear market territory. Perhaps even more significant, the JCB 10-year note yield fell to a negative number, under ZERO, for the first time in history. This marks Japan and Switzerland as the only countries in the world with negative yields out to ten years, though other countries are rapidly approaching that benchmark, in particular, Germany.

European bourses all finished their session with losses of one percent or more, and, at the open in the US, the situation appeared dire, with Dow futures down more than 150 points. Stocks quickly gained traction, turned positive near midday, flirted with the unchanged line throughout the session until finally giving it up late in the day.

But, the story is not the minor loss the major indices took, but the skew of all manner of metrics toward the negative. Bond yields continued to collapse, with the ten-year down to 1.71%. The spread between the ten and two-year note compressed down to 1.04, something of a danger zone, as the two-year actually rose two bits, to yield 0.67%.

Bank stocks were unhappy spots, with Bank of America (BAC) closing at 12.20, a new 52-week and multi-year low.

Advancers were also far behind declining stocks by a margin of more than 2-to-1. Also of note, the number of new lows (NASDAQ and NYSE combined) dwarfed new highs, 812-70, with only six of those new highs on the Naz. The central planners at the central banks can pin their hats on the day as they successfully halted the manic rallies in silver and gold, for a day, anyway.

Additionally, oil was sent back well below the $30 mark, finishing in New York at $28.38 a barrel.

The VIX is also signaling more turbulence, hanging steadily in the mid-20s range.

The rout in stocks, however, like the gains for the metals, is far from over. Consensus view on Wall Street is still concerned, but not yet panicked. Stocks are still about 5-7% away from official bear market territory, though a few bad days could send the indices reeling in the wrong direction.

In a story by Bernard Condon (AP) about how much money companies have lost doing stock buybacks, we find that the stock buybacks which goosed the market and individual stocks higher over the past six to seven years has been nothing short of a colossal flop and threatens to become an even heavier weight stopped to the stock market.

What stock buybacks did accomplish was to allow executives to boost their companies' earnings without devoting capital to expansion, while at the same time justifying their extraordinary salaries and cashing out their outrageous stock options and/or bonuses.

Investors should be outraged, and righteously so, because these companies should have been either expanding their capital base or market share or distributing dividends to their shareholders. What these stock buyback kings have done is nothing short of a fiduciary failure, which in other industries would be cause for criminal indictments.

Of course, since this all occurred within the cozy regulatory environment that is Wall Street, nothing even close to that will happen. The executives who personally profited from corporate paper profits will walk away with their cash after hollowing out scores of once-healthy companies. It may turn out to be good overall, if a few of the giant multi-nationals like Wal-Mart, Yum Brands and ExxonMobil get cut down to more reasonable sizes and markets open up for more nimble - and honest - competitors.

Tuesday's Cracker-jack pot:
S&P 500: 1,852.21, -1.23 (0.07%)
Dow: 16,014.38, -12.67 (0.08%)
NASDAQ: 4,268.76, -14.99 (0.35%)

Crude Oil 28.38 -4.41% Gold 1,189.20 -0.73% EUR/USD 1.1294 +0.86% 10-Yr Bond 1.7290 -0.35% Corn 360.50 -0.48% Copper 2.04 -2.61% Silver 15.23 -1.30% Natural Gas 2.10 -2.01% Russell 2000 964.17 -0.53% VIX 26.71 +2.73% BATS 1000 20,030.11 -0.07% GBP/USD 1.4468 +0.29% USD/JPY 115.0020 -0.51%

Bank Stocks Lead Market Rout as Bond Yields Plummet; Gold, Silver Soar

If anyone critical of the US economy is - as the great and almighty economic genius, President Obama recently posited - "peddling fiction," then why is Wall Street peeling away from equity positions like it's the Tour de France?

Relentless selling was the order of the day, especially in financials, until the final hour, as specs stepped in or shorts covered, cutting losses by 1/3 to 1/2.

While fiction writers may not think the stock markets are the modern day equivalents of "Moby Dick," they do have something of a beached whale quality to them. Germany's DAX is already in a bear market, as is China's SSE and Japan's NIKKEI, and the US markets are catching down somewhat quickly, with all three major indices already in correction territory.

With no real catalyst to move stocks higher, the prognosis is for further losses through the first quarter.

Banks were particularly ugly today, with Deutschebank (DB, -8.00%) teetering on the brink of insolvency, and losses suffered by Bank of America (BAC, -5.25%), Goldman Sachs (GS, -4.61%), Citigroup (C, -5.14), Wells-Fargo (WFC, -2.84%), and JP Morgan Chase (JPM, -2.10%).

At issue, as usual with banks, is interest rates, which soared today, pushing the 10-year note to an 18-month low yield of 1.74%). Credit spreads also continued to narrow, forecasting a recession, if not this quarter (and possibly last quarter), then almost surely in Q2.

Underlying the banking sector are questions of general solvency, quality of collateral, and, the size of their respective derivative books. Deutsche has the largest, estimated to be a total exposure of $75 trillion, with the US banks heavily into the game. Derivatives - CDS and other "bad bets" are what nearly took the entire Western economic system down in 2008, and they haven't gone away. Bank balance sheets are larger now and filled with just as much, if not more, toxic derivative soup.

When the financials lead the market down, it's usually not a good sign. Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Citi are already in bear markets (down more than 20%), while Wells-Fargo and JPM are within one percent of being in the same sinking vote.

Following the underwhelming jobs report Friday, stocks have done nothing but decline and that trend doesn't look to be about to change anytime soon.

The world may be months - if not weeks - away from complete capitulation in stock markets, the precursor to a global depression.

Another telling sign is the rise of gold and silver, two of the top-performing assets (along with bonds) for 2016. Both were up smartly again today and have broken through strong points of resistance.

The day's damage:
S&P 500: 1,853.44, -26.61 (1.42%)
Dow: 16,027.05, -177.92 (1.10%)
NASDAQ: 4,283.75, -79.39 (1.82%)

Crude Oil 30.11 -2.53% Gold 1,191.40 +2.91% EUR/USD 1.1193 +0.30% 10-Yr Bond 1.74 -6.11% Corn 362.00 -1.03% Copper 2.09 -0.52% Silver 15.35 +3.90% Natural Gas 2.13 +3.30% Russell 2000 969.34 -1.65% VIX 26.00 +11.21% BATS 1000 20,045.01 -1.29% GBP/USD 1.4432 -0.47% USD/JPY 115.8500 -0.93%