Friday, September 21, 2018

Dow Theory Thwarted; Bulls Back In Charge As Industrials Register New All-Time High

In what has to be regarded as a false signal from the Dow Theory tracking primary trends, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a new all-time closing high on Thursday, finishing the session at 26,656.98, eclipsing the previous record close of 26,616.71 reached on January 26, 2108.

In the interim, the Dow suffered through a shallow correction in February and March, gradually regaining its momentum in the second quarter, gaining 158.97 points for all of April, May, and June. During that period, however, other indices were exhibiting strength, especially the NASDAQ, which soared to record highs in June, followed by more all-time highs in July and August.

The S&P 500 took longer to recover, finally reaching a new apex on August 24, though the index showed considerable resilience and strength from April though the summer. It too finished at a record, gaining 22.80 points, it's best single-day gain in nearly two months.

The bear market, primary trend reversal signal sent via Dow Theory was initially triggered when the industrial average made a new short-term low on March 23, at 23,533.20, and confirmed on April 9, when the Transportation Index also closed at a new recent low of 10,119.35.

Skeptics noted that the transports, immediately after reaching that critical low, immediately rebounded with a 650-point rally over the next seven sessions. The aftermath from the signal forward didn't appear to be anything even remotely resembling a bear market, and if it was, the signal was too late and not useful for trading purposes. In fact, had one paid heed to the primary trend signal, one would have missed out on some sizable gains from April though the present.

The transportation index made a fresh record close at 11,436.35, on August 21 and has since finished higher than that on a tuber of occasions. The new high close on the Dow Jones Transportation Index was the first signal that the primary market trend was about to reverse again. It was just a matter of time and playing catch-up for the Dow to achieve a new record.

Whatever the market rationale - be it the Trump effect, animal spirits, or simply the general attractiveness of US markets caused by the recent strong dollar - stocks continue to be the best investments available to the general public and the larger institutional investing community.

Where the market goes from here is, as always, an open question, though it appears that the longest bull market in history will continue apace. Nothing, not even regular, quarterly interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, has been able to slow down the US equity express.

On the heels of solid performances in July and August, the Dow is poised to post the best quarterly results of the year when the third quarter concludes in just one week, September 28. The Dow added 1143.78 points in July, 557.29 in August, and has racked up a gain of 692.16 in September.

Dow Jones Industrial Average September Scorecard:

Date Close Gain/Loss Cum. G/L
9/4/18 25,952.48 -12.34 -12.34
9/5/18 25,974.99 +22.51 +10.17
9/6/18 25,995.87 +20.88 +31.05
9/7/18 25,916.54 -79.33 -48.28
9/10/18 25,857.07 -59.47 -107.75
9/11/18 25,971.06 +113.99 +6.24
9/12/18 25,998.92 +27.86 +34.10
9/13/18 26,145.99 +147.07 +181.17
9/14/18 26,154.67 +8.68 +189.85
9/17/18 26,062.12 -92.55 +97.30
9/18/18 26,246.96 +184.84 +282.14
9/19/18 26,405.76 +158.80 +440.94
9/20/18 26,656.98 +251.22 +692.16

At the Close, Thursday, September 20, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,656.98, +251.22 (+0.95%)
NASDAQ: 8,028.23, +78.19 (+0.98%)
S&P 500: 2,930.75, +22.80 (+0.78%)
NYSE Composite: 13,225.11, +103.14 (+0.79%)

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