The highly-anticipated trade wars touted by the Trump-hating press have yet to materialize, and multi-national corporations are adjusting to the new world of tariffs as opposed to the falsely-defined "free trade" policies of the past three decades.
With President Trump rewriting the parameters of global commerce, US companies are, as they should, making adjustments to currency distortions and disputes arising from the sudden departure from the past. That being the case, Dow stocks are performing favorably, while tech vacillates. The key to direction seems to be headed by the banking and financial sectors, which underpin all commercial activity.
Seeking to normalize interest rates, the Fed is set to raise the federal funds rate again in less than a week, at their September 25-26 FOMC meeting. Bank stocks have been largely untouched by any kind of organized selling pressure, which leads to complacency on trading desks and within investor portfolios. Passive index funds continue to perform well, despite perceived distress over presidential policies and political hijinks.
There's so much bullishness apparent that contrary practitioners have toes in the water, many of them already burned by bounces in the market structure. This is not an environment in which one would readily short stocks, as the bull market rages on without so much as a five percent pullback since the lows of February and March.
The money is out there, most funds fully invested without a worry in the world. That's a condition that usually leads to disaster, though this time looks to be truly different. If President Trump MAGA promise can be gauged at all, the stock market might be a proxy for the health of the American economy and it is doing quite well.
The Dow has posted gains in six of the last seven sessions, adding nearly 550 points over that span.
Dow Jones Industrial Average September Scorecard:
Date | Close | Gain/Loss | Cum. G/L |
9/4/18 | 25,952.48 | -12.34 | -12.34 |
9/5/18 | 25,974.99 | +22.51 | +10.17 |
9/6/18 | 25,995.87 | +20.88 | +31.05 |
9/7/18 | 25,916.54 | -79.33 | -48.28 |
9/10/18 | 25,857.07 | -59.47 | -107.75 |
9/11/18 | 25,971.06 | +113.99 | +6.24 |
9/12/18 | 25,998.92 | +27.86 | +34.10 |
9/13/18 | 26,145.99 | +147.07 | +181.17 |
9/14/18 | 26,154.67 | +8.68 | +189.85 |
9/17/18 | 26,062.12 | -92.55 | +97.30 |
9/18/18 | 26,246.96 | +184.84 | +282.14 |
9/19/18 | 26,405.76 | +158.80 | +440.94 |
At the Close, Wednesday, September 19, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,405.76, +158.80 (+0.61%)
NASDAQ: 7,950.04, -6.07 (-0.08%)
S&P 500: 2,907.95, +3.64 (+0.13%)
NYSE Composite: 13,121.97, +29.99 (+0.23%)
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