Maybe there will be more action next week. The natives grow restless for new all-time highs.
Meanwhile, the race is on to see if U.S. debt can exceed $37 trillion before the next FOMC meeting concludes on June 18.
Stocks
Thanks to a huge bump to kick off the shortened week - Tuesday's gains comprising all of the upside for the week - stocks were able to take an extended break Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, simply gyrating along the flat-line.
Recall that Tuesday's awesome rally (Dow: +740.58 (+1.78%); NASDAQ: +461.96 (+2.47%); S&P 500: +118.72 (+2.05%); NYSE Composite: +295.04 (+1.51%)) came off the back of an announcement that the U.S. and Europe would "fast track" tariff negotiations. While that went over well, little attention was paid to the announcement on Friday that talks with China had "stalled" according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and that China had violated terms of the agreement (if there even was one) according to President Trump.
By the end of the day, Friday, stocks were little moved, essentially almost holding onto Tuesday's gains. The tweeting, tooting, algorithmic noise-making is growing a little thin. Stocks are past peak both in terms of earnings and appreciation. More and more companies have reported EPS lower than prior quarters or year-ago figures, and are masking their failures on tariff concerns and forward projections of dire consequences. Thus, there's some degree of cautionary holding, ignoring the obvious, awaiting the closure of the 90-day grace period afforded most countries by Trump (expiring somewhere around July 10), so as not to cause a panic and send stocks back to whence they came, which is precisely where they are likely to go, probably right after the July 4 holiday.
There are a host of thorny issues that have yet to be resolved. From Ukraine and Gaza to the gold in Fort Knox and mass deportations and/or government downsizing, to DOGE cuts and the "big, beautiful bill" there are enough potholes for even a vehicle as large as the presidential limo on which to flatten a few tires or twist an axle. The continuing resolution that passed the House a week ago is already a "NO" vote in the Senate among a large enough group of Republicans grandstanding over "balance" and "spending" to torpedo the process which was already going to take until August (wait, isn't that when all the legislators take a month off?).
Figure on last-minute drama through the entire month of September, as the Washington D.C. criminal cartel provides the usual edge-of-the-seat entertainment, avoiding a government shutdown, default, and constitutional crisis all at the same time, the clock ticking down like in a James Bond movie, saved by last-minute compromise by our heroes in congress.
Balderdash! The whole lot of them should be locked up. They couldn't balance a budget if you gave them an extra $2 trillion. Wait. They did. They spent it all and then some and plan to do it again this year. As Elon Musk - completely drained and exasperated at congress' cold reception to his hard work on reducing fraud, waste, and corruption - allegedly told CBS News (ya never know these days), "I think a bill can be big or it can be beautiful, but I don't know if it can be both."
The plates are still spinning over the Wall Street, D.C., Middle East three-ring circus, so there's an excellent chance that more tweets, toots, horns, bells, whistles, geegaws, whoop-de-doos, and fangdoozles will be supplied to keep the party going just a little bit longer. Dr. Seuss would be embarrassed. Those posing as economists or experts on CNBC, Bloomberg, or FOX Business are too stupid to notice the wheels have come off the clown car. After all, they're just along for the ride.
A few more companies are still reporting first quarter earnings, including:
Monday: (before open) Campbell's (CPB); (after close) Abivax (ABVX)
Tuesday: (before open) Signet Jewelers (SIG), Ollie's (OLLI), Dollar General (DG); (after close) Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Sportsman's Warehouse (SPWH), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Mama's Creations (MAMA)
Wednesday: (before open) Dollar Tree (DLTR), Genesco (GCO), VersaBank (VBNK), Thor Industries (THO); (after close) Five Below (FIVE), Verint (VINT), Tillys (TLYS), PVH (PVH)
Thursday: (before open) Victoria's Secret (VSCO), Land's End (LE), Toro (TTC), Duluth Trading Co. (DLTH), Ciena (CIEN), Cracker Barrel (CBRL); (after close) Zumiez (ZUMZ), Petco (WOOF), Lululemon (LULU), Broadcom (AVGO), Docusign (DOCU)
Friday: (before open) AMB Industries (ABM), Fuel Cell Energy (FCEL), Manchester United (MANU).
Of interest will be reports from Dollar General and Dollar Tree, both companies dealing with inflation pricing and tariff instability.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking at a conference in Washington, D.C. on Monday. Wednesday brings the monthly ADP private employment report and jobs cuts data from Challenger, Gray, and Christmas. Friday's May Non-Farm Payroll will provide more insight into the U.S. employment picture.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 04/25/2025 | 4.34 | 4.37 | 4.36 | 4.32 | 4.32 | 4.22 | 3.95 |
| 05/02/2025 | 4.38 | 4.36 | 4.34 | 4.33 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 4.00 |
| 05/09/2025 | 4.37 | 4.36 | 4.34 | 4.34 | 4.40 | 4.28 | 4.05 |
| 05/16/2025 | 4.37 | 4.36 | 4.34 | 4.37 | 4.42 | 4.30 | 4.13 |
| 05/23/2025 | 4.36 | 4.34 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 4.43 | 4.35 | 4.15 |
| 05/30/2025 | 4.33 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 4.39 | 4.36 | 4.11 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 04/25/2025 | 3.74 | 3.76 | 3.88 | 4.06 | 4.29 | 4.75 | 4.74 |
| 05/02/2025 | 3.83 | 3.82 | 3.92 | 4.11 | 4.33 | 4.81 | 4.79 |
| 05/09/2025 | 3.88 | 3.85 | 4.00 | 4.18 | 4.37 | 4.86 | 4.83 |
| 05/16/2025 | 3.98 | 3.95 | 4.06 | 4.24 | 4.43 | 4.92 | 4.89 |
| 05/23/2025 | 4.00 | 3.96 | 4.08 | 4.29 | 4.51 | 5.03 | 5.04 |
| 05/30/2025 | 3.89 | 3.87 | 3.96 | 4.18 | 4.41 | 4.93 | 4.92 |
Treasuries with long maturities saw yields fall during the week, aided by markets being closed Monday and a sharp stock rally on Tuesday, though a 10 basis point drop on the 10-year yield is hardly convincing, ditto for the 12 basis points shed by the 30-year. It will take more than a few good auctions to keep the wolf from the door, so to speak, as the shedding of treasuries by foreign central banks is an ongoing process.
Entities outside the United States still need treasuries to conduct trade with the U.S. and others, so it's not as though Japan, China, and Eu members have completely shut down their buying operations. As far as a store of value as bank reserves, however, treasuries' days may be numbered as gold continues to be the choice for hard reserves, soon to become a Tier I asset on a global basis. Most of the planet is already in compliance. The U.S. is lagging, which is fomenting significant arbitrage with the gold price, especially by China. As July 1 approaches, it will not be a surprise if U.S. banks receive some special treatment, as in more time to become fully compliant, despite having a two-year "heads up" to implement the Basel III requirements.
Spreads continued to exhibit stress, with full spectrum down from +68 to +59, though still above normal range. 2s-10s have remained in a range between 45 and 55 basis points - leaning toward the high end - since the tariff trauma back in early April. This week's reading of +52 was the sixth time in the past eight weeks that spreads were +50 or higher, the apex being April 25, when the spread hit +55.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
Oil/Gas
WTI crude oil closed out the week in New York trading at $60.79, down - for the second straight week - from the prior Friday reading of $61.76. The price of oil remains higher than fundamentals suggest, despite th price structure losing all momentum late on Thursday, dropping from the week's high of 63.04, in short order, to the week's low of $59.98 midday Friday. Upcoming and possibly greater production hikes by OPEC countries are forthcoming in June. Even with the "summer driving" season upon Europe and North America, oil prices appear to be fated for a return to the $50s, where they were less than a month ago, amidst the reversal of the tariff trauma.
Nothing spells economic trouble than falling oil and gas prices, signifying slack demand and weak economic underpinnings, traits shared by Europe, the U.S. U.K. nations and the majority of South America. Even without the disruptions from Trump's tariff back-and-forth, economies have been slowing over the past year, some longer, and the lingering effects of poor prior policy and increasing uncertainty has business and consumers in a state of suspended animation.
Asia is a bit of a different story, though much of it is interconnected with Western economies, so there's definitely a lag in certain industries, especially those involved in infrastructure and capital projects, where the real growth will eventually need to be originated. The financialization of every market - including crude oil and other base commodities - has warped the concept of price discovery to a point at which signals are crossed and little data is reliable. Even with markets tightly controlled by large, vested interests, the decline in oil and gains in precious metals are two sides of the same coin. The controllers are losing their joystick grips. Real economic forces are taking hold again, and not a moment too soon, though the true reckoning will still be delayed and denied for as long as possible. Policy-makers always figure that buying time is a reliable option, even when their time is up.
Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.12, down three cents from last week, and the lowest price in three weeks.
The high price remained the province of California at $4.74, down another seven cents on the week. Mississippi retained the low spot at $2.64. The only other state reporting a fuel price under $2.70 is Tennessee ($2.69). The remainder of the Southeastern states - including Oklahoma - range from Texas and Louisiana at $2.70 to the high end of North Carolina ($2.79) and Georgia ($2.84), all prices down a smidge from last week. Florida remained the outlier in the Southeast, at $3.08.
The Northeast continues to be led by Pennsylvania ($3.24), down a nickel. New England and East coast states all range between $2.88 (New Hampshire) and $3.07 (New York). Prices remained stable.
Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.36), the price down five cents from last week. Kentucky and Kansas share the lowest in the region, at $2.86, followed by Missouri ($2.87) and South Dakota ($2.88). Indiana drivers are paying $3.08, down 15 cents from last week. Similarly, Michigan's prices dropped to $3.07 from $3.22 last week. The rest of the Midwest ranges from $2.90 (Ohio) to $2.98 (Wisconsin, Minnesota), all down from last week.
Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, even with last week, at $4.39. Oregon ($3.96) was lower this week, along with Nevada ($3.81), down three cents. Arizona ($3.32) is still priced at a premium to neighboring New Mexico, a relative bargain at $2.90. Idaho and neighboring Utah were the most stable, at $3.27 and $3.25, respectively.
Sub-$3.00 gas is found in seven more states this week than last, with 27 under the line. Lower gas prices for American drivers are becoming a reality with more than half below $3.00. It is welcome relief.
Bitcoin
This week: $103,968.10
Last week: $107,017.20
2 weeks ago: $103,888.10
6 months ago: $96,490.37
One year ago: $67,654.30
Five years ago: $9,668.08
Bitcoin got punched in the gut this week, as the vaporware market sold off even as proxy stocks gained. Bitcoin got as high as $110,339 on Monday and continued a slow descent throughout the week, failing to even approach the record high of $111,681 from May 22. While some may consider it natural for crypto to react to a lack of news and consolidate, lower highs and lower lows do have a tendency to crimp speculation and erode confidence. It's a wonder that so many have fallen under the spell of crypto-madness, though the great awakening, when bitcoin crashes - as it always does - might signal its just reward of ultimately being disregarded as a fad, a fraud, or a fling.
The price of a bitcoin dropped to a low of $103,228 early Saturday, but has recovered to 103,968.10 as of Sunday morning.
The entire crypto space is chock-full of idiocy and noise. There's been no great adoption of crypto as a store of value or medium of exchange. It's all in the minds and the hype of the people inside the "industry," for lack of a better term. The fiction they've created would make Hollywood writers blush.
We keep hearing that the GENIUS Act is closer and closer to a full Senate vote though there always seems to be some kind of roadblock delaying consideration by the government clowns. While it's almost certain to pass, there are ongoing efforts to make substantial changes to the legislation before it heads back to the House and to President Trump's desk.
JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon - never a big fan of crypto in general - had an interesting take, saying, "We shouldn’t be stockpiling bitcoins. We know what we need. It’s not a mystery." He called for the prioritization of "guns, bullets, tanks, planes, drones, and rare earths." The mainstream media ought to eat that right up.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 100.15; last week: 99.81
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 5/2: $3,247.40
Gold price 5/9: $3,329.10
Gold price 5/16: $3,205.30
Gold price 5/23: $3,357.70
Gold price 5/30: $3,313.10
Silver price 5/2: $32.18
Silver price 5/9: $32.88
Silver price 5/16: $32.43
Silver price 5/23: $33.64
Silver price 5/30: $33.08
Gold and silver each took a little off the top as the metals sector consolidated, or, as the case may be, was forced back down as stocks rallied. It's a little bit like a game of Whack-a-Mole with the bait-and-switch operators. When stocks are doing well, that means, in simple terms, that complacency has triumphed over lingering FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) and that nobody from the Trump administration has either tweeted, truthed, or gone to the press with some kind-grabbing story, like "China talks aren't going well," which was mouthed by Treasury Secretary Bessent and repeated by President Trump (just for emphasis) in order to take stocks down a notch and offer some relief to precious metals.
The games being played by those of the international finance ilk are sick, perverted, and twisted. Desperate to keep the fallacy of fiat paper money afloat, insiders have resorted to banal, idiotic tactics, using Trump and Bessent as messenger pigeons for the daily grift. Most astute market watchers are seeing right through the fog of economic war and acting as appropriate. There is nothing that can halt the process of a dying fiat regime and the adoption of a new gold standard in world finance. BRICS countries continue to buy, Americans continue to wonder about th gold in Fort Knox and whether or not it will ever be audited, while banks are lining up to delay and defray the fateful event of July 1, when American banks - including the Fed - are supposed to toe the line on Basel III and declare their allocated gold holdings as Tier I assets.
There has been considerable pushback by non-compliant banks against the proposed BIS construct. However, it is worth noting that China, Russia, India, and likely many more BRICS-aligned nations are already in compliance and benefitting from U.S. reluctance and foot-dragging which is keeping the price of gold under wraps, for now.
It will not last long.
The coming quake from gold-holding central banks versus those on the other side of the fence will be monumental, though there may not be much in the way of surface disruption. But, like most quakes, underneath the exposed, neat exterior of global finance, there are already tremors and rumblings as a global reset seems to be imminent.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 34.25 | 49.95 | 39.97 | 39.99 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 39.60 | 49.95 | 43.63 | 42.78 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 3,370.60 | 3,550.20 | 3,458.55 | 3,446.83 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 3,437.88 | 3,504.64 | 3,460.04 | 3,451.65 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell slightly over the week, to $41.59, a 73 cent decline from the May 25 price of $42.32 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
As uneventful as the week was on the surface, there are strong undercurrents that should make the financial world a little more exciting in weeks and months ahead.
At the Close, Friday, May 30, 2025:
Dow: 42,270.07, +54.37 (+0.13%)
NASDAQ: 19,113.77, -62.13 (-0.32%)
S&P 500: 5,911.69, -0.48 (-0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 19,783.81, +39.91 (+0.20%)
For the Week:
Dow: +667.00 (+1.60%)
NASDAQ: +376.55 (+2.01%)
S&P 500: +108.87 (+1.88%)
NYSE Composite: +248.93 (+1.27%)
Dow Transports: +150.72 (+1.04%)
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