Markets will be closed on Thursday in observance of Juneteenth, so latent reactions to any Fed noise or war drums will have to wait until Friday.
Stocks
All of the indices were sporting moderate gains through Thursday, but, in response to the assault on Iran by Israel, stocks were hammered lower on Friday, wiping out those gains and putting the rally that began in earnest in late April into question. Stocks seemed to be overheating and volumes diminishing anyway, so the Mideast conflict served to quiet the bulls, activating some overdue selling. Nothing like a war to focus one's investment strategy.
Friday's fire sale sent the Dow below its 200-day moving average, though the NASDAQ ad S&P remain well above theirs. Additionally, the moving averages have been inverted since mid-April, with the 50-day falling below the 200-day on all the major indices, so there is ample concern over a market downturn of which the Israel-Iran conflict plays a major role on top of concerns over the continued fighting in Ukraine, great discontent and protests over immigration conditions, and the stalled "big, beautiful bill" touted by the White House that currently doesn't have the votes needed to sail through the Senate.
There are reasons to be optimistic as well, though not many. The U.S. economy seems to be gliding along, with unemployment remaining very low. Tariffs haven't caused any widespread inflation panic, and may not be as severe as many economists have suggested. Stocks remain near all-time highs, having recovered from the initial "liberation day" tariff shock. President Trump seems to be capable of pivoting on any issue, making concessions and changing his mind as often as Taylor Swift or Lady Gaga changes outfits, though that may amount to a pretty sharpened double-edged sword.
Stocks could go any which way at this point, depending on the president's position regarding the immigration protests and what to do about Iran. His choice on the latter is to either accept Israel's pleadings to intervene and bunker-bust Iran's nuclear facilities or stand back and allow Israel to do its own dirty work. Choosing the "bombs away" approach to blow up the dreaded "potential" nukes in Iran would be an economic disaster for all parties in the West as it would trigger a wider war. Much depends on how Trump handles his own advisors, the assembled neocons in and out of congress, and other outside influences in favor of Israel. Standing back and keeping the U.S. out of direct military involvement, as he's done effectively in Ukraine, would seem to be the wisest choice, but Wall Street, European partners, and other strong influences could tip the scales and force Trump's hand. It's a critical issue that needs resolution.
Even though the bulk of earnings season is well past, there are a number of interesting compaines reporting this week:
Monday: (before open) Power Fleet (AIOT), ReNew Energy (RNW); (after close) Lennar (LEN), HighTide (HITI), PetMeds (PETS)
Tuesday: (before open) Jabil (JBL), Wiley (WLY); (after close) La-Z-Boy (LZB)
Wednesday: (before open) Korn Ferry (KFY), Aurora Cannabis (ACB); (after close) Smith & Wesson (SWBI)
Friday: (before open) CarMax (KMX), Accenture (ACN), Kroger (KR), Darden Restaurants (DRI).
Besides the FOMC meeting Tuesday, with the policy decision at 2:00 pm ET Wednesday, May U.S. retail sales reports on Tuesday with housing starts and building permits out Wednesday, before the bell.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 05/09/2025 | 4.37 | 4.36 | 4.34 | 4.34 | 4.40 | 4.28 | 4.05 |
| 05/16/2025 | 4.37 | 4.36 | 4.34 | 4.37 | 4.42 | 4.30 | 4.13 |
| 05/23/2025 | 4.36 | 4.34 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 4.43 | 4.35 | 4.15 |
| 05/30/2025 | 4.33 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 4.39 | 4.36 | 4.11 |
| 06/06/2025 | 4.28 | 4.31 | 4.35 | 4.43 | 4.38 | 4.31 | 4.14 |
| 06/13/2025 | 4.23 | 4.32 | 4.48 | 4.45 | 4.40 | 4.30 | 4.09 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 05/09/2025 | 3.88 | 3.85 | 4.00 | 4.18 | 4.37 | 4.86 | 4.83 |
| 05/16/2025 | 3.98 | 3.95 | 4.06 | 4.24 | 4.43 | 4.92 | 4.89 |
| 05/23/2025 | 4.00 | 3.96 | 4.08 | 4.29 | 4.51 | 5.03 | 5.04 |
| 05/30/2025 | 3.89 | 3.87 | 3.96 | 4.18 | 4.41 | 4.93 | 4.92 |
| 06/06/2025 | 4.04 | 4.02 | 4.13 | 4.31 | 4.51 | 4.99 | 4.97 |
| 06/13/2025 | 3.96 | 3.90 | 4.02 | 4.20 | 4.41 | 4.93 | 4.90 |
There's a FOMC meeting this week (June 17-18), though it isn't likely to have much - if any - impact on markets. The Fed is doing what it and most other scholarly-type economists does best - nothing. They've been stuck on a federal funds rate of 4.25-4.50% since December 2024, after lowering the rate a full percentage point (50 basis points in September and 25 each in November and December).
Besides the Fed's infamous dot-plots of pure guesses by Fed officials of future federal funds rates, most of the attention will be on President Trump's belly-aching about Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's reluctance to lower rates. Of course, Trump will use the bully pulpit of his Truth platform to rail on about Iran and Israel as well. Trump's people will be busy tweeting and truthing most of the week.
Powell has countered Trump's bellows, contending that the president's own policies on immigration, tariffs, and taxes - and, now, potential involvement in another war (Iran-Israel) - are causing the Fed to remain on pause, awaiting more clarity.
Powell's press conference after the policy announcement Wednesday might raise an eyebrow or two, but most likely the response from the market will be more focused on the Mideast and oil prices than an unchanging federal funds rate.
Spreads remain wide and may actually widen over the course of the week if there's no control over traders of long-maturities. With so much tension in the world presently, a spike on the 30-year back above five percent and the 10-year note yield surpassing 4.5% is in play.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
Oil/Gas
$64.77 was the closing price of WTI crude oil in New York last Friday (6/6). This Friday, WTI crude closed at $71.53, after reaching a high of $73.53 Thursday night as Israeli bombs and missiles rained down on military and personnel targets in Iran.
Since then, Iran has retaliated with missile assaults on Tel Aviv and elsewhere, targeting "supposedly" Israel's oil and gas infrastructure, just as Israel did to Iran in second and third waves of attacks. Oil is probably going to be volatile as long as the two parties are flinging munitions at each other. Gas prices are likely to follow any sustained price hike in crude, so the dreams of summer driving at discounted prices may not last long after the coming week, just in time for the 4th of July.
Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.12, up three cents from last week, even as the price of crude oil is rising, so expect prices to have hit bottom and probably rise to levels at which ExxonMobil, Chevron, and their fellow gas-pumpers can make large profits. $3.25-3.40 within a few weeks is probably not out of the question. After that, the price at the pump will be largely a reflection of available supply and how much said supply is crimped by the conflict in the Middle East.
The highest prices in the country remained California's, at $4.61, down another four cents on the week. Mississippi is still the low spot at $2.65, though that is six cents higher than a week ago. Tennessee plays second fiddle, at $2.66. Oklahoma comes in at $2.69, also higher by five cents, followed by Texas ($2.71), Louisiana ($2.73), and Alabama ($2.75). South Carolina and Georgia are both at $2.82, as Florida saw a 16-cent decline over the week, to $2.90.
The Northeast continues to be led by Pennsylvania ($3.28), up eight cents on the week. all other New England and East coast states range between $2.89 (New Hampshire) and $3.06 (New York). Prices remained relatively stable throughout the region.
Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.43), the price 11 cents higher than last week. Kansas is the lowest in the region, at $2.83, followed by Kentucky and Missouri ($2.85). Indiana drivers are paying $3.17, second-highest in the region after Illinois. Michigan's price fell a dime to $3.06. The rest of the Midwest ranges from $2.86 (South Dakota) to $3.05 (Ohio).
Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, same as last week, at $4.35. Oregon ($3.95) was higher this week, while Nevada ($3.74) was down two cents. Arizona ($3.23), even though it's down another three cents, is still priced at a premium to neighboring New Mexico, a relative bargain, at $2.83. Idaho and neighboring Utah were the most stable, at $3.26 and $3.24, respectively.
Sub-$3.00 gas is found in five fewer states this week than last, with 25 under the line. Lower gas prices for American drivers was becoming a reality, but appears to have bottomed as the price of oil is spiking again.
Bitcoin
This week: $105,037.50
Last week: $105,777.50
2 weeks ago: $103,968.10
6 months ago: 104,572.08
One year ago: $66,111.79
Five years ago: $9,134.03
Bitcoin was fairly flat Sunday to Sunday, though it did spike to near $110,000 just before the Israeli's launched their attack on Iran. Who knew there were pacifists amongst the hodlers?
The highly-touted GENIUS Act will receive an up-or-gown vote in the Senate on June 17 (Tuesday) after a compromise was reached to allow the bill to move to a floor vote without amendments. An additional 82 amendments had been thrown onto the bill from both sides, leaving it in a legislative tug-of-war, but expediency - and some deft arm-twisting by party leaders - prevailed, passing a cloture vote Wednesday by a healthy margin, 68-30.
Looks like President Trump and Republicans are going to get a win on this. One wonders what they gave up for their stablecoin bonanza.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 94.93; last week: 92.19
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 5/16: $3,205.30
Gold price 5/23: $3,357.70
Gold price 5/30: $3,313.10
Gold price 6/6: $3,331.00
Gold price 6/13: $3,452.60
Silver price 5/16: $32.43
Silver price 5/23: $33.64
Silver price 5/30: $33.08
Silver price 6/6: $36.13
Silver price 6/13: $36.37
Gold got a big boost on Friday, gaining $50 on top of the $70 it had already advanced during the week. Silver wasn't as affected, it's big week being the one prior, when it gained more than $3 and shattered the previously-impenatrable $35 barrier.
With gold becoming so pricey that smaller investors may be shunning it for the time being, silver still offers the allure of precious metal at what still appears to be a discount. The gold:silver ratio, which had bounced past 100 recently, has been brought down to more pedestrian levels, though at 94.93, it remains extreme.
So long as countries are content to lob bombs, missiles, and drones at each other for whatever purposes and BRICS continue to trade amongst themselves, shutting out the hegemony of the US dollar, gold will continue to rise, and, presumably, so will silver.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell slightly through the week, to $44.14, a 56-cent decline from the June 8 price of $44.70 per troy ounce.
Prices in the Sunday eBay survey indicate that buying is still very brisk with premia remaining enhanced, due to the impression that the price of silver still has significant upside ahead and to the prospect of a wider war in the Middle East. Buying of finished silver in small denominations above $40 and even $45 per ounce has become commonplace, while gold bars and coins have advanced in price to an average above $3,580.
WEEKEND WRAP
War. What is it good for? Gets the price of oil and gold higher, anyhow.
At the Close, Friday, June 13, 2025:
Dow: 42,197.79, -769.83 (-1.79%)
NASDAQ: 19,406.83, -255.66 (-1.30%)
S&P 500: 5,976.97, -68.29 (-1.13%)
NYSE Composite: 19,981.07, -218.42 (-1.08%)
For the Week:
Dow: -565.08 (-1.32%)
NASDAQ: -123.12 (-0.63%)
S&P 500: -23.39 (-0.39%)
NYSE Composite: -64.29 (-0.32%)
Dow Transports: -191.67 (-1.29%)
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