Questioning why stocks are so richly valued would go a long way toward rationalizing what is essentially an irrational market, based largely on fraud, government handouts, allowance of tech monopolies, hedge fund oligarchies, insider trading, complete lack of oversight, questionable statistics, corrupted data, unreliable media, and the idea that if something or somebody doesn't comply with the wishes of the hegemonic, fractional reserve, fiat currency counterfeiting regime, the U.S. military will simply blow them up.
The merry-go-round that is the U.S. economy is a marvel of ingenuity and process. Create money out of thin air, make congress borrow it, hand it off to banks, consumers, retirees, welfare recipients, and have them spend it on things produced by Fortune 500 companies, make fat profits, send stocks higher, line the pockets of politicians and billionaires and just keep it going. It's a nice gig.
The S&P, NASDAQ and NYSE Composite made all-time highs this week. The U.S. dollar was weaker. Get used to it.
Stocks
Bombing Iran was good for business. The major indices had one of their best weeks of the year. The S&P, NASDAQ and NYSE Composite all made new al-time highs, with everyone from the Wall Street Journal to CNBC proclaiming the rebound from Trump's "liberation day" tariffs to be extraordinary and magnificent.
That's all well and good, but the tariffs aren't even in place yet. Recall, if you will, that on April 9, Trump offered a 90-day limited hang-out on tariffs. That 90 days expires in two weeks. Prior to that, on Tuesday, July 1, all U.S. banks will treat gold as a Tier 1 asset on par with U.S. treasuries. There's been plenty of resistance to the change, but here it comes, right before the June non-farm payrolls on Thursday, just prior to the Independence Day three-day weekend, so, it better be a good one, or America's 249th birthday might not be such a grand old time.
From a Wall Street perspective, nothing could be better than a very weak jobs number, like 35,000 or less, because that would put pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates, which is what Wall Street wants most of all, and especially before Christmas. If there is anything even close to Christmas in July, a bad jobs report would fit the bill rather perfectly for Wall Street honchos. The ever-reliably-incorrect BLS is on it. Plenty to look forward to in the week ahead, and then, the first full week of July, come second quarter earnings, likely to be a mixed bag like the first quarter, full of beating expectations but falling short of prior year revenue and EPS. The combination of a possible rate cut and stocks beating lowered expectations is the perfect setup for a big, fat summer rally. Hot dogs and mustard all around!
Fed Chairman Powell addressed both houses of congress this past week. For all the words and questions and answers, he didn't say anything. It was another example of congress wasting tax dollars, and not in a good way.
May Existing Home Sales were pretty much a disaster, with prices hovering near record highs while sales were up 0.8% on a month-to-month basis, but that was an increase from the slowest April for existing home sales in 16 years. Last month was the slowest May for existing home sales since 2009. Existing home sales in May fell 0.7% compared to the same month last year. Median home prices are up 52% compared to May 2019, which has raised the cost of a typical mortgage from around $1,000 a month to beyond $2,000. No wonder home sales are below pre-covid levels.
The third (and final) estimate of first quarter GDP was released by the BEA on Thursday, showing the economy slowed by not 0.2% (first est.) or 0.3% (second est.), but 0.5%. Hmmm. Maybe by next year, they'll have figured out that the economy slowed by 1.0% or maybe 1.5%. Rinse, revise, repeat.
Nobody wanted to talk about the Fed's favorite inflation gauge deeking back up to 3.7%. We need rate cuts, dammit!
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 05/23/2025 | 4.36 | 4.34 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 4.43 | 4.35 | 4.15 |
| 05/30/2025 | 4.33 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 4.39 | 4.36 | 4.11 |
| 06/06/2025 | 4.28 | 4.31 | 4.35 | 4.43 | 4.38 | 4.31 | 4.14 |
| 06/13/2025 | 4.23 | 4.32 | 4.48 | 4.45 | 4.40 | 4.30 | 4.09 |
| 06/20/2025 | 4.20 | 4.38 | 4.55 | 4.39 | 4.40 | 4.29 | 4.07 |
| 06/27/2025 | 4.19 | 4.43 | 4.49 | 4.39 | 4.36 | 4.26 | 3.97 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 05/23/2025 | 4.00 | 3.96 | 4.08 | 4.29 | 4.51 | 5.03 | 5.04 |
| 05/30/2025 | 3.89 | 3.87 | 3.96 | 4.18 | 4.41 | 4.93 | 4.92 |
| 06/06/2025 | 4.04 | 4.02 | 4.13 | 4.31 | 4.51 | 4.99 | 4.97 |
| 06/13/2025 | 3.96 | 3.90 | 4.02 | 4.20 | 4.41 | 4.93 | 4.90 |
| 06/20/2025 | 3.90 | 3.86 | 3.96 | 4.16 | 4.38 | 4.90 | 4.89 |
| 06/27/2025 | 3.73 | 3.72 | 3.83 | 4.03 | 4.29 | 4.85 | 4.85 |
What's good for stocks (sanctions, bombs) is also good for bonds, with yields lower across the treasury curve this week. The 2-year note saw a significant decline of 17 basis points, while the 10-year dropped nine, from 4.38% to 4.29%, leaving the 2s-10s spread at +56, a hearty steepening in yield curve dynamics, the highest in a period of high spreads, dating back to right after Trump reversed course on tariffs in early April.
The long end of the curve is steepening rapidly, which is a positive for debt buyers and sellers alike. With full spectrum (30 day - 30 years) at +66, all the treasury market now needs is for Chairman Powell and his henchmen and wench-women to lower the federal funds target rate down a few notches, to, let's say, 3.75-4.00%, to eliminate the slouch in the belly between 6-month bills and 10 year notes. Even better would be a full one percent cut to 3.25-3.50%, which would unleash incredible liquidity, not unlike what we've just witnessed, with lag effect, from the Fed one percent rate cut from September (-0.50%), November (-0.25%), and December (-0.25%).
The Fed cut rates when stocks were at all-time highs back then, which was unprecedented. Now that they've set a new precedent, they're about to do it again, though probably not right away. There's a chance that they'll find a rationale for cutting 25 basis points in July, since economic data is pointing towards slowing and the June non-farm payroll report out Thursday may influence that further. The result will be similar to the six-to-eight months following their first round of cuts: higher stock prices, followed by smart money cashing out, then re-entering and driving stocks up to even higher highs. By the end of 2025, U.S. markets should be floating on clouds and Treasuries will be yielding reasonably good rates from 3.50 to 5.00% from 2s out to 30s.
What's not to like?
Bubbles. Investors should beware of bubbles, because they eventually burst. But, not right away. We're going to have prosperity, like it or not, even if candy bars are $3 and chicken is $9 a pound.
Overall, from a consumer perspective, interest rates are irrelevant until they become the only factor, overriding common sense and fiscal order. Since the U.S. is devoid of both of those commodities, expect everything to price higher - well, except maybe gold and silver - because the Fed and the current crooks in congress can't see anything past the midterms. They might be overcooking this particular goose, however, because Wall Street is so flush with money, congress is becoming envious.
More for them, less for you.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
Oil/Gas
$65.07 was the closing price of WTI crude oil in New York on Friday, after closing at $74.04 last week (6/20). The price erosion occurred as soon as markets opened Monday after the U.S. bombed three nuclear facilities in Iran. Who knew bombing a country that's been under U.S. sanctions for 30 years could be so beneficial to the price of gas at the pump in America.
It didn't take long for gas prices to reflect higher oil prices, largely the result of the Israel-Iran tiff, and, just like that, they're down four cents nationally.
Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.17. With a three-day weekend upcoming on July 4, 5, and 6, prices aren't probably going to come down right away, but once all the holiday travel is over and done with, expect $3.10 or lower on the national level in a few weeks unless there's another outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East.
The highest prices in the country remained California's, at $4.57, down seven cents on the week. Mississippi was edged out by Oklahoma ($2.69) for the low spot at $2.70, just a penny lower than a week ago and up 11 cents over the past three weeks. Other states in the Southeast were also down over the course of the week. Texas is at $2.74, followed by Tennessee ($2.77), Louisiana ($2.78), and Alabama and Arkansas ($2.79). South Carolina is at $2.84, Georgia, $2.91, and Florida and North Carolina both $2.92. Florida fell 16 cents, from 3.08 last week.
The Northeast continues to be led by Pennsylvania ($3.38), up eighteen cents from three weeks ago. All other New England and East coast states are all back above $3,00, ranging from $3.03 (New Hampshire) to $3.25 (Maryland). Prices were stable to slightly higher across the region.
Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.48), up five cents from last week. Missouri is the lowest in the region, at $2.87, followed by Kansas ($2.90) and Kentucky ($2.91). The remainder of the Midwest ranges from $2.92 (Nebraska) to $3.27 in Michigan, with Ohio, North and South Dakota, Iowa, and Wisconsin all falling back below $3.00.
Along with California, Washington ($4.44) and Oregon, at $4.02, are the only states above $4.00 in the country. Nevada ($3.75) dropped two cents. Arizona ($3.24) is still priced at a premium to neighboring New Mexico, a relative bargain, at $2.92. Idaho ($3.41), and Utah ($3.33) each saw prices rise.
Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in three more states this week than last, with now 20 under the line. If the Middle East situation remains in a relatively peaceful state, prices should continue to come down.
Bitcoin
This week: $108,168.60
Last week: $102,703.00
2 weeks ago: $105,037.50
6 months ago: $93,169.94
One year ago: $60,860.10
Five years ago: $9,134.03
Bitcoin had a nice week to the upside. Doesn't mean that it's still not a complete scam.
In 2023, there were $5.3 billion in losses due to crypto scams.
Cryptocurrencies are useless. There's No Good Reason to Trust Blockchain Technology (Wired, February 6, 2019).
Over 1,600 of the Brightest Scientific Minds in Technology Have Signed a Letter Calling Both Crypto and Blockchain a Sham - Wall Street on Parade, July 13, 2022.
The Senate passed the GENIUS Act on June 17, and the bill is currently under review in the House, where it is largely expected to pass. It should be on the president's desk sometime in July and will become law.
David Sacks, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and President Trump's "Crypto Czar" is a big proponent of the GENIUS act and crypto in general. Sacks was born to a Jewish family in Cape Town, South Africa, and emigrated to Tennessee, United States, with his family when he was five. He has multiple ties to Elon Musk and Peter Thiel of Palantir. Once the GENIUS Act becomes law, the United States will be one step closer to the realization of central bankers' wet dreams of permanently eliminating cash and replacing it with programmable, trackable crypto in the form of stablecoins. Sacks will be leading the crypto effort to completely devalue the U.S. Dollar mich in the manner the German mark was hyper-inflated during the days of the Weimar Republic.
People invested in crypto are likely going to get what they're after, good and hard.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 90.85; last week: 94.14
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 5/30: $3,313.10
Gold price 6/6: $3,331.00
Gold price 6/13: $3,452.60
Gold price 6/20: $3,384.40
Gold price 6/27: $3,286.10
Silver price 5/30: $33.08
Silver price 6/6: $36.13
Silver price 6/13: $36.37
Silver price 6/20: $35.95
Silver price 6/27: $36.17
Gold got a little less expensive, which is great for big-time stackers at central banks and sovereign wealth funds. Buyers of individual coins and bars at retail got some relief. Where the price of gold goes from here - in the near term - is not significant. There's considerable effort bing made to suppress it further in Western markets and the usual suspects were busy doing just that this week.
The effort to downgrade gold can only be beneficial to silver, which has held up quite well over the past month since breaking through the $35 barrier. If gold goes lower, don't expect silver to follow point-for-point. The gold:silver ratio is still over-extended and will continue to revert towards the mean. Any gains in gold could send silver right through $40 in a short span. As it stands, only the biggest stackers, buying in quantity, can get silver for under $40, given the premiums at retail.
Not much should be taken from gold's slippage this week or even if it continues lower in weeks ahead. It's still out-performing stocks by distance on a year-to-date basis, and the pullback is simply in keeping with the stocks at record highs narrative. If anything, gold is presenting a buying opportunity to those late to the game.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 39.00 | 49.99 | 43.39 | 42.50 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 38.00 | 49.00 | 44.28 | 44.62 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 3,382.10 | 3,538.06 | 3,451.75 | 3,435.11 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 3,350.00 | 3,474.70 | 3,432.33 | 3,430.98 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) bounced higher this week, to $43.70, a gain of $1.20 from the June 22 price of $42.50 per troy ounce.
Prices in the Sunday eBay survey indicate that buying is still very brisk with premia remaining enhanced. Despite gold being downgraded at the COMEX this week (silver, less so), prices for finished silver one ounce pieces were higher, while gold was generally knocked down by roughly $100 across both coins and bars. Like everything else touched by corrupted Western markets, the influence of the COMEX is being gradually eroded. While it's not likely to happen overnight, there's no doubt that the future for precious metal pricing will become the province of Eastern nations with currency and metals markets hubs in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, Moscow, Dubai, Jakarta and elsewhere.
WEEKEND WRAP
Well, that's it for another Weekend Wrap, the production of which was severely impacted by yet another internet failure in deep woods, Tennessee. If the rural flavor wasn't so delightful, Money Daily might someday consider relocating to a big city where internet service isn't interrupted on a semi-regular basis (any time the wind blows, pretty much).
Could happen, but probably not. Peace and quiet - even at the sacrifice of browsing and researching on the web - trumps hustle, bustle, and noise every time. A Starlink connection looms.
At the Close, Friday, June 27, 2025:
Dow: 43,819.27, +432.43 (+1.00%)
NASDAQ: 20,273.46, +105.54 (+0.52%)
S&P 500: 6,173.07, +32.05 (+0.52%)
NYSE Composite: 20,338.41, +82.21 (+0.41%)
For the Week:
Dow: +1,612.45 (+3.82%)
NASDAQ: +826.05 (+4.25%)
S&P 500: +205.23 (+3.44%)
NYSE Composite: +470.05 (+2.37%)
Dow Transports: +729.74 (+4.94%)
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