No Stopping the Bull: Another New High for Dow

If you've missed the recent stock market explosion, take heart. The new highs will continue to come and stocks are poised to make impressive gains. The US economy - despite some persistent, nagging problems - continues to expand at a measured pace and corporations have never had it so good. This bull is getting a second wind. 15,000 on the Dow by the end of the year is looking more achievable every day.

Dow 13,312.97 +48.35; NASDAQ 2,570.95 -1.20; S&P 500 1,509.48 +3.86; NYSE Composite 9,825.09 +32.09

CNNMoney reports that today's Dow gain matches an 80-year-old record of 24 up sessions in the last 27. The previous run was in the summer of 1927.

While the Dow continues to awe and amaze, the NASDAQ dropped a little more than a point, though the S&P 500 moved to within 18 points of its all-time closing high. Once again, the if the S&P manages a new high, it could spark a significant break out, leading all indices higher.

The markets were buoyed by a confluence of forces today including Warren Buffet's suggestion that his Berkshire-Hathaway conglomerate would be pursuing an acquisition in the $40-60 billion range.

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Speculation on what Buffett will be buying ranges from the outrageous (think Yahoo or Adobe Systems) to the marginally feasible - like Dow components Caterpillar (CAT), DuPont (DD) or McDonald's (MCD) - each of which are within his market cap range.

Alcoa (AA) management announced that it would be pursuing rival Alcan (AL) via a hostile bid. Both stocks were sharply higher, with Alcan gaining more than 21 points at the close - a nearly 35% increase - to 82.11.

Oil fell for the 6th straight session, a run of losses which has drivers cheering. The price of crude on the NY Mercantile Exchange fell 46 cents to $61.47. The losing streak was the longest in more than 7 months.

Advancers and decliners were nearly equal, with about 100 more issues gaining ground than losing. New highs checked in at 468, versus only 66 new lows. Anybody shorting this market or individual issues, is likely to be taking it on the chin. Our new highs-new lows metric continues to suggest the bull will run strong for some time and that there is no top in sight.

Gold again moved closer to the magic $700 mark, closing at $690.30, up 60 cents per ounce. Silver experienced a similar gain of 11 cents to close at $13.64. The metals continue to confound investors who see inflation everywhere, but no corresponding gains in the time-worn precious metal hedge.

Stocks are where it's at, and with everybody - including the Oracle of Omaha - thinking big, this rally could run for months more.

Dow Sets Another New High; S&P Inches Closer

Stocks continued their progression higher on Friday amid merger news and a somewhat mellowing jobs number for April. The Dow set another record high close and the S&P 500 got to within 20 points of its all-time high.

Microsoft (MSFT) is rumored to be interested in buying up Yahoo (YHOO), a marriage that would give both companies some heft in the ongoing ad and search war with Google (GOOG). Yahoo would likely benefit from the programming mindset at Microsoft, while Gates' company would get proven online business savvy and a healthy roster of advertising accounts. Neither company would confirm or deny rumors.

Dow 13,264.62 +23.24; Nasdaq 2,572.15 +6.69; S&P 500 1,505.62 +3.23; NYSE Composite 9,793.00 +39.06

The Labor Dept. announced the creation of 88,000 jobs in April, the smallest gain in more than two years, though the figure was in line with expert expectations.

Advancers led declining issues by a 7-5 margin; There were 495 new highs, 73 new lows. The internal numbers suggest that the bull is running along at an even pace.

Light crude for June delivery fell to $61.93, losing $1.26 on the day, the fifth straight day of decline for oil and welcome news for anyone with a gas tank to fill.

Gold: 689.70 +5.30
Silver: 13.53 +0.02

More Gains as Rally Extends; S&P Tops 1,500

The run continued on Thursday, despite some very disappointing news from General Motors (GM), the markets were buoyed by a positive Labor Dept. productivity report which showed an uptick of 1.7%, nearly a full percentage point higher than the consensus estimate.

With the S&P 500 breaking an important psychological mark, that particular index is poised for a breakout. The all-time high is within hailing distance, a mere 25 points higher and when that is breached, the floodgates will be open. The S&P will join the Dow in uncharted territory and the gains should continue for a good period of time.

Dow 13,241.38 +29.50; NASDAQ 2,565.46 +7.62; S&P 500 1,502.39 +6.47; NYSE Composite 9,753.94 +35.94

It's important not to get married to stocks during this phase, as sectors and industry groups will rotate, though the overwhelming drivers continue to be tech, innovation and globalization. Companies that can leverage their advantage in these areas will emerge as winners and appreciate in spurts. This may become very much a traders' market, with quick turnaround trades the key to making money.

Buy and hold strategists need not be dissuaded by this, as the long-term viability of many leading companies should remain intact throughout.

Even though today's market action was somewhat muted, it was still in keeping with the overall positive tone which has prevailed of late. Advancing issues outdid decliners by 17-14 margin. New highs stood solidly at 419 versus just 62 new lows. That number continues to amaze and indicate that the rally will continue unabated.

A 4th straight day of slippage in the price of oil added to the upbeat mood. Light, sweet crude for June delivery dipped 49 cents to $63.19.

The precious metals played contrarians for a day. Gold closed at $684.40, up $9.30, while silver was less of a player, gaining 18 cents to $13.51. These commodities have been playing this game for over a year now and are nowhere near their 2006 highs. After sizable run-ups in the first part of the decade, the metals have been lackluster performers since early 2006.

US Stocks on Fire, Investors Face Buy-Sell-Hold Dilemma

In the face of a rapidly-rising market typified by another semi-spectacular day in which the Dow set another record close, investors are now faced with the time-worn predicament: Buy, Sell or Hold. Most, judging just by the indices, are holding and buying more, as first quarter corporate earnings reports continue to flow in with satisfying regularity.

One could hardly blame them. The run-ups from mid-March to today (just over 6 weeks): Dow, up 1136 points; NASDAQ, 207 points; S& P 500, 118 points; NYSE Composite, 790 points. These are all in the neighborhood of 8% gains, which normally (whatever normal is these days) would be good for 6 months or a year. Some individual stocks have fared even better.

Impressive, indeed, and still capable of going higher, much higher. Your investment outlook will certainly vary by the length and quality of your experience. Anyone who's been in stocks for the last 20 years can be colored by the deep declines of 1987 and the dot-com collapse of 2000, but also by the spectacular gains of the late nineties - especially 1999 - and this excellent early run since early 2003.

That's where the quality of your experience comes into play. If you were on the right sides of trades in the boom years, you took the declines in stride. Contrary to that perspective would be buying in close to peaks and then being blindsided. Most of us have experienced a share of both sides.

Dow 13,211.88 +75.74; NASDAQ 2,557.84 +26.31; S&P 500 1,495.92 +9.62; NYSE Composite 9,718.00 +78.21

To offer some perspective, while the Dow is at all-time highs, remember it took 6 1/2 years to get to them. The NASDAQ is still off 50% from its all-time high, so there's plenty of room there. And the S & P 500 closed at 1527.46 on March 24, 2000. It's just 30 points from there - an all-time high.

More and more money - much of it created by the Federal Reserve's loose credit policies of 2001-2004 - continues to flow into stocks and there's no indication that it's about to stop. I have to admit to being late to the party, thinking there was going to be a major correction, but that seems more and more a remote possibility.

If you're in this market now, hold and buy more. If you're not already in, it's not even close to being too late. In fact, the next 6-9 months may be exceptional.

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The US economy is still the most stable on the planet when investors look for gains without much risk, they look to the NYSE and the NASDAQ. Stocks are going to continue higher and there's no looking back.

Volume was strong again today, as has been the case of late, and the indices other than the Dow experienced stronger gains, indicating that the Dow's pleasure may be spreading.

The advance-decline line also gives this more credence, as advancing issues outpaced decliners by a 3-1 margin. As well, there were 406 new highs and a paltry 83 new lows, more evidence that this rally could actually be gaining momentum. That is not surprising, as these kinds of things run in cycles. The first phase was getting to the new records on the Dow, and now, phase two, will be longer and more sustained, though probably not as exciting. Nobody is going to forsake 12-15% gains over the next six months, however, which is exactly where this is heading.

Oil prices eased again on Wednesday - the third decline in a row - by 71 cents to close at $63.68. Gold and silver were also lower, though only marginally. Memo to gold bugs: It's time to sell some of your excess and try your hand at stocks.

Dow Rockets to Another New High; Other Indices Lag

The Dow made another in an ongoing string of records on Tuesday, gaining 73 points to surpass the previous record (set this past Friday) by 16 points. While the Dow has been enjoying a terrific ride, the other indices - especially the NASDAQ - have lagged, as they did today.

The Dow was at least twice as good on a percentage basis than any of the other indices, making the case that the 30 blue chips are still considered a safe bet in an otherwise turbulent marketplace. Only 7 Dow stocks closed on the downside, most notably Proctor & Gamble (PG), which was bid up yesterday, but dumped today upon the release of the company's 1st quarter report. P&G turned in profits of 74 cents per share, as opposed to 63 cents in the same period of 2006, though the number was short of analysts' expectations and the stock sold off 1.57 on Tuesday.

Dow 13,136.14 +73.23; NASDAQ 2,531.53 +6.44; S&P 500 1,486.30 +3.93; NYSE Composite 9,639.79 +12.06

Advancers led decliners by a slight margin, with just 150 more issues higher than lower. There were 213 new highs and 150 new lows, the closest those have been in more than three weeks.

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The trend is clearly in place for a broader pullback, as evidenced by the internals and yesterday's partial sell-off.

Perhaps the only reason the indices closed higher at all was the lower prices being bid for oil, which closed down for the second straight day. Light crude for June delivery fell 1.31 to $64.40, though the price would have to fall below $60/bbl. and settle there for any realistic relief for both consumers and businesses.

Following that lead, Gold was off 6.20 to $677.30, while Silver lost 21 cents to end the day at $13.37.

At this point, record high closes on the Dow are becoming so commonplace as to lose impact. The run of the blue chip companies has not nearly been matched by the NASDAQ or the S&P 500, reflecting a more challenging environment for mid and small-cap stocks.

The risk of a significant downturn grows with every uptick on the Dow. Buying high is not normally a good idea and it probably isn't at this juncture.