Financial Media Desperate for Narrative News Stories; Bessent Doubles Down; Lowe's, Home Depot, Target Report; Gold, Silver Soaring

Two stories making the rounds this morning demonstrate just how desperate the media and government are for relevant news supporting their narrative.

First, it is being reported that the DOJ has issued an indictment against 17 Iranians (how convenient!) in a cyber theft ring. What the clever Persians are accused of stealing is not money, but information, from university professors. What makes the story unworthy of attention is that the original indictment dates back to February, 2018. So, essentially, this cyber heist has been operating for eight years without the government able to make any arrests. Nice going! Your tax dollars at work.

Fortune and Yahoo! Finance report that Bank of America's chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnet says investors should be wary of long maturity U.S. treasuries, expressing a belief that the government issues too much debt. His rationale is that with government borrowing at record levels and having to roll over maturing bills, notes, and bonds, a vicious cycle of more and more issuance occurs, driving yields higher.

U.S. national debt owed by the federal government stands at $39.942 trillion. The debt will hit $40 trillion within days, likely the middle or end of next week, and it will continue to grow. Eventually, the piper must be paid or the money spigot gets shut off. Guess which option the U.S. government will take.

On the more important side of things, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that Treasury would be increasing its buybacks of long-term debt (10-20 years and 20-30 years) over the funding period beginning September 9 through November 4. The Secretary contends that this is a liquidity measure, and it very well may be, with demand for longer-dated issues lagging, sending yields higher. Bessent had little choice. Yields on 10s and 30s are about to go ballistic and still may, despite his last-ditch effort to control the market. He can't.

A quick breakdown of companies reporting second quarter earnings:
Tuesday:
Baidu (BIDU) - big miss, stock was sent 12% lower on Tuesday
Home Depot (HD) - top, bottom beat, stock flat on Tuesday.
Lazboy (LZB) - big miss top and bottom, shares down 16% pre-market
Toll Brothers (TOL) - earnings, revenue beat, shares up 1.5% pre-market

Wednesday: (before open)
Target (TGT) - massive 75% earnings beat y-o-y, shares
flat TJX (TJX) - reporting 11:00 am Wed., sha
res flat Lowe's (LOW) - EPS beat, revenue miss, shares
lower by 2% Estee Lauder (EL) - Huge miss, top and bottom, shares up 13%?

10-year treasuries are yielding 4.68%. The yield on a 30-year bond is 5.28%. Nobody, especially foreign holders, wants this debt because they correctly see demand for anything 10-years or longer as extremely risky. Eventually, this ends in a calamitous manner.

Heading toward the cash open, stock futures were flat until President Trump announced that a deal with Canada had been reached, defanging the threat of 50% tariffs over three days, starting Thursday. Players in the futures markets saw this as extremely positive. Dow futures: +283; NASDAQ: +124; S&P: +27.

It seems unlikely to hold over into the general session.

Overnight, gold and silver were smacked down, but are rallying strongly this morning. Spot gold is at $4,458. Spot silver: $65.00.

It's pretty slow out there. The media and government story pumpers are grasping at proverbial straws. Hedge accordingly.

At the Close, Tuesday, August 18, 2026:
Dow: 53,343.40, -116.38 (-0.22%)
NASDAQ: 26,289.71, -355.20 (-1.33%)
S&P 500: 7,691.76, -53.30 (-0.69%)
NYSE Composite: 24,629.14, -88.67 (-0.36%)