July CPI Comes in Tame, up 0.1% monthly, +3.4% Annually; Gold, Silver Get a Bump Higher as Inflation/Employment Debate Emerges

Pretty much in line with expectations, the BLS reported July CPI as follows:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July after falling 0.4 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.1 percent in July, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the monthly all items increase. The index for food also increased 0.1 percent over the month, as the index for food away from home increased 0.3 percent. In contrast, the energy index declined 1.5 percent in July.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent after being unchanged in June. Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, airline fares, communication, education, and recreation. Conversely, the index for motor vehicle insurance was among the major indexes that decreased in July.

The all items index rose 3.4 percent for the 12 months ending July after rising 3.5 percent for the 12 months ending June. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.5 percent over the year, following a 2.6-percent increase over the 12 months ending June. The energy index increased 14.7 percent for the 12 months ending July. The food index increased 3.0 percent over the last year.

As Money Daily detailed in Tuesday's post, the soft inflation figures had the most profound effect on precious metals. Both silver and gold experienced healthy gains upon the release.

As for as stock futures were concerned, the data didn't move the needle much on any of the majors, which were already close to session highs just prior to the release.

Approaching the opening bell, gold was up nearly $62 to $4,428.70, with silver up nearly two dollars, at $66.40.

Dow futures were up 148 points. NASDAQ futures were ahead by 288 and S&P futures gained 35 points.

Today's CPI print leaves open the debate over whether the Fed will raise or lower interest rates. Considering the weakness lately in employment, the FOMC may lean toward a cut at the September meeting, though there will be a load of data to digest before then. Whether or not precious metals can sustain their recent advances has much to do with the inflation/employment argument. Lower rates favor PMs. Higher rates favor treasuries as the safety bet of choice.

Crude oil remains very much in play, as Iranian hard-liners push for U.S. concessions as prerequisites for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude futures are maintaining around $83/barrel. A breakthrough in the Middle East would send oil much lower, be beneficial to the global economy, and probably send all assets higher.

The games continue...

At the Close, Tuesday, August 11, 2026:
Dow: 53,791.85, -184.13 (-0.34%)
NASDAQ: 26,445.45, -159.91 (-0.60%)
S&P 500: 7,728.20, -24.91 (-0.32%)
NYSE Composite: 24,685.57, +17.69 (+0.07%)