As much as the Trump administration and Wall Street's PR team of financial journalists would like everybody to believe, all is not well.
Wednesday's doubling down by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Treasury purchases of its own debt sent shock waves through the global financial system and is an all-too-obvious sign that the U.S. treasury market - the largest funding mechanism in the world - is creaking, cracking, wobbling, and headed for a spectacular crash.
It's been apparent for a long time that very few foreign investors are interested in buying U.S. long-term debt, but now, the market is realizing that even domestic interests are staying away from 10-year notes and 30-year bonds. It's a mass exodus and Secretary Bessent is panicked.
Just a week ago, the U.S. intervened against a collapsing yen, allowing the Bank of Japan to borrow against its treasury holdings rather than selling them outright in order to stabilize their currency. That, and Wednesday's announcement, are nothing more than accounting tricks, parlor games designed to stave off the inevitable, the collapse of the fiat lending scheme that has eroded the value of all currencies not backed by anything other than government credit and thin air.
Bessent's monetary maneuvers are short-term patches on a long-term problem. To illustrate, imagine a business, heavily in debt, purchasing some of their own debt with money they had previously borrowed. Now, they may have bought back their debt at a discount and will receive the proceeds as it winds down, arguably to pay off even more debt. The company would be caught in a vicious trap from which it could only escape with an infusion of capital via increased sales and profits. For the U.S. government, that would be more tax revenue, and raising taxes is not something either party is fond of doing.
Thus, Bessent has signaled that the government, beyond being bankrupt, $40 trillion in debt, and paying north of $1 trillion in annual interest payments, is unable to operate above baord and must resort to somewhat dodgy financial calculus. The federal government will continue to spend until nobody will lend to it except at fire sale rates of interest. Currently, the bogey number is five percent on 30-year bonds and 4.50% on 10-year notes, which have already been exceeded. What will Bessent do when investors - the few of them remaining - insist on six percent or seven on 30-year obligations?
The implications of Bessent's obvious panic are immense and potentially catastrophic. The walls of the structure underpinning the entire global financial system are buckling and nearing collapse.
Deal with that reality when making your next investment decision.
The immediate implications of Bessent's announcement to expand Treasury's "buy-back" program was to halt the rise in yields and send them into reverse, for now, but gold and silver investors smelled blood in the water and rallied extensively throughout the day. Gold shot right through resistance at $4,400 and rose straight through $4,500 before retreating overnight. Silver topped out ay $67.40 and is nestled in a range between $66.20 and $66.80.
Adding to the malaise is the price of oil. Brent crude is well beyond $90 per barrel with WTI crude futures topping $88 Thursday morning. President Trump's choices of action in the Middle East currently run the gamut from bad to disastrous. He can either take a loss and allow Iran and Oman control of the Strait of Hormuz, keep pressure on Iran and keep the strait closed, or escalate further and risk a global recession or worse.
Just minutes before Wall Street's opening bell, stock futures are down significantly. Dow futures are off 417; NASDAQ futures are down 172, and S&P futures are down 33 points.
Whether all of the attendant forces converge within a week, a month, or gradually over time through the midterm elections doesn't really matter other than to short-timers and day-traders. Those with a longer-term investment horizon (anybody with a brain) have to consider the longer implications of a systemic collapse, one which is racing ahead with all the ferocity of a runaway locomotive.
Best prepare.
At the Close, Wednesday, August 19, 2026:
Dow: 53,463.05, +119.65 (+0.22%)
NASDAQ: 26,331.09, +41.38 (+0.16%)
S&P 500: 7,707.98, +16.22 (+0.21%)
NYSE Composite: 24,707.27, +78.13 (+0.32%)
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