As has been repeated here and on other financial sites ad nauseum, this is about as dull a market as has ever been seen.
Even though the Dow Industrials finished positive on the day, it spent most of Friday's session in negative territory, down by as many as 61 points just 90 minutes prior to the close. It actually turned positive just two minutes before the closing bell.
The NASDAQ suffered its first losing week of the year, a laughable 1.84 point decline. The Dow fell - on a weekly basis - for the second straight week, a whopping 11-point loss on top of last week's monumental 17 point decline. A cumulative loss of 28 points in two weeks (10 trading days) is nothing more than a rounding error.
As for the darling S&P, it continued its 2013 winning streak, closing up again for the seventh straight week, though only by a mere 1.86 points. They dynamic S&P 500 went the entire week without moving more than three points on a closing basis. That's dull with a capital D.
With all this excitement, thank goodness the exchanges are closed on Monday for President's Day. The traders and all us weary writers really need a break.
Whew!
Late Breaking: The SEC has filed charges in unusual trading activity in options just prior to Berkshire Hathaway's takeover of H.J. Heinz (HNZ). Geez, Uncle Warren involved in something less than ethical? The horror. The ironic twist is that Business Insider, operated by banned trader/analyst Henry Blodget, was the first on the web with the story, proving that, even on Wall Street, truth is stranger than fiction.
Dow 13,981.76, +8.37 (0.06%)
NASDAQ 3,192.03, -6.63 (0.21%)
S&P 500 1,519.79, -1.59 (0.10%)
NYSE Compos... 8,932.17, -20.91 (0.23%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,831,044,125
NYSE Volume 4,096,131,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2977-3410
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 489-45
WTI crude oil: 95.86, -1.45
Gold: 1,609.50, -26.00
Silver: 29.85, -0.504
Friday, February 15, 2013
Thursday, February 14, 2013
St. Valentine's Day Mascara
No, that's not a misprint in the headline. The word is "mascara" - the stuff women apply to darken, thicken, lengthen, and/or define their eyelashes. It's a cosmetic, as in rouge, or lipstick, as in lipstick on a pig, which is exactly what the algos and buy-siders did to today's undeniably weak, directionless market.
Face it, Europe is a bona-fide basket case, Japan is devaluing its currency so fast that George Soros made nearly a billion dollars on the trade in just over three months.
The news coming out of Euro-fantasy-land was less than encouraging. Eurozone fourth quarter 2012 GDP fell by 0.6%.
Making matters a little more interesting - and more frightening - were the figures for the zone's three largest economies - Germany, France and Italy - whose own GDP fell by 0.6%, 0.3% and 0.9%, respectively.
The Eurozone, even after all the bank and sovereign bailouts, pledges of doing everything possible to promote growth by the likes of Germany's Angela Merkel and EU President Mario Draghi, has resulted in three consecutive quarters of negative GDP. Europe is already in the throes of an economic collapse, thanks largely to protectionism for banks and excessive liquidity from European central bankers (most of whom are Goldman Sachs alum, BTW).
While the GDP numbers may be bad enough, consider youth unemployment (ages 15-25) in the Eurozone to be spreading like the bubonic plague. Greece reported youth unemployment over 60%; Spain over 50% and Portugal just topped 40%. Thirteen of the 27 EU member states are reporting youth unemployment over 25%. Austerity: it's what's for dinner.
Europe is solid proof that the elite class is making up the rules as they go along, and the general public is viewed as collateral damage only. Here in the good old USA, we have our own concerns with the sequestration schedule to commence March 1, which will result in massive federal budget cuts. The president and congress haven't even begun to discuss how they'll handle that, though they uniformly say that sequestration (it doesn't rhyme with castration for no reason) is something they'd prefer to avoid.
Have they acted? No. Will they? Probably, but, like the fiscal cliff deal this past December, it will be a stop-gap measure and cost taxpayers more. Nobody ever cuts anything in Washington, only the rate of growth of programs, because what's important to them is keeping lobbyists and voters (government employees and beneficiaries of government largesse) dumb and happy.
So, on what does this algo-concocted market focus? Berkshire Hathaway's buyout of Heinz. Poor suckers that Americans are, they put ketchup on their chicken and pork hot dogs on day old buns while Uncle Warren reaps the profits. If ever there was a crony capitalist, Warren Buffet's picture belongs next to the definition.
Sure, unemployment claims were down - from 368K to 341K - but aren't those figures still too high? The new normal means just doing better than expectations, even if those expectations are sub-par. It's akin to taking your kid out for ice cream because he got a C in math instead of a D. As a nation, we've lowered our standards in everything from our political leaders to what passes for entertainment.
Along with everything else, we've lowered our standards for rational markets. Today's split decision is just another shining example of the truth hiding in plain sight. Sooner or later, even the talking heads on CNBC are going to come to the realization that making new all-time highs with a -0.1% GDP and unemployment at eight percent doesn't really pass the smell test. Someday. Maybe. Note the video below with Rick Santelli, everyone's favorite financial ranter, extrapolating out on what we've been saying nearly every day on this blog: that being a trader is nearly impossible under current conditions.
And, just as a side note, New York Mayor Bloomberg, who first banned drink containers larger than 16 ounces, has proposed a ban on styrofoam containers, and... it's likely to pass his rubber stamp city council.
Let's see, smokes are $10-12 a pack in NY, you can't smoke in any of the bars, night clubs or public buildings; you must drink from small containers and those soon cannot be made of styrofoam. All this makes one pine for the good old days of the seventies. Ed Koch was mayor. Son of Sam was shooting kids in parking lots. Reggie Jackson was blasting balls out of the original Yankee Stadium and you could buy just about any kind of drug - from weed to cocaine - on just about any street corner. Bloomberg. He's just not a fun guy.
Dow 13,973.39, -9.52 (0.07%)
NASDAQ 3,198.66, +1.78 (0.06%)
S&P 500 1,521.38, +1.05 (0.07%)
NYSE Composite 8,951.33, -4.27 (0.05%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,884,832,750
NYSE Volume 3,867,864,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3259-3130
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 505-39
WTI crude oil: 97.31, +0.30
Gold: 1,635.50, -9.60
Silver: 30.35, -0.516
Face it, Europe is a bona-fide basket case, Japan is devaluing its currency so fast that George Soros made nearly a billion dollars on the trade in just over three months.
The news coming out of Euro-fantasy-land was less than encouraging. Eurozone fourth quarter 2012 GDP fell by 0.6%.
Making matters a little more interesting - and more frightening - were the figures for the zone's three largest economies - Germany, France and Italy - whose own GDP fell by 0.6%, 0.3% and 0.9%, respectively.
The Eurozone, even after all the bank and sovereign bailouts, pledges of doing everything possible to promote growth by the likes of Germany's Angela Merkel and EU President Mario Draghi, has resulted in three consecutive quarters of negative GDP. Europe is already in the throes of an economic collapse, thanks largely to protectionism for banks and excessive liquidity from European central bankers (most of whom are Goldman Sachs alum, BTW).
While the GDP numbers may be bad enough, consider youth unemployment (ages 15-25) in the Eurozone to be spreading like the bubonic plague. Greece reported youth unemployment over 60%; Spain over 50% and Portugal just topped 40%. Thirteen of the 27 EU member states are reporting youth unemployment over 25%. Austerity: it's what's for dinner.
Europe is solid proof that the elite class is making up the rules as they go along, and the general public is viewed as collateral damage only. Here in the good old USA, we have our own concerns with the sequestration schedule to commence March 1, which will result in massive federal budget cuts. The president and congress haven't even begun to discuss how they'll handle that, though they uniformly say that sequestration (it doesn't rhyme with castration for no reason) is something they'd prefer to avoid.
Have they acted? No. Will they? Probably, but, like the fiscal cliff deal this past December, it will be a stop-gap measure and cost taxpayers more. Nobody ever cuts anything in Washington, only the rate of growth of programs, because what's important to them is keeping lobbyists and voters (government employees and beneficiaries of government largesse) dumb and happy.
So, on what does this algo-concocted market focus? Berkshire Hathaway's buyout of Heinz. Poor suckers that Americans are, they put ketchup on their chicken and pork hot dogs on day old buns while Uncle Warren reaps the profits. If ever there was a crony capitalist, Warren Buffet's picture belongs next to the definition.
Sure, unemployment claims were down - from 368K to 341K - but aren't those figures still too high? The new normal means just doing better than expectations, even if those expectations are sub-par. It's akin to taking your kid out for ice cream because he got a C in math instead of a D. As a nation, we've lowered our standards in everything from our political leaders to what passes for entertainment.
Along with everything else, we've lowered our standards for rational markets. Today's split decision is just another shining example of the truth hiding in plain sight. Sooner or later, even the talking heads on CNBC are going to come to the realization that making new all-time highs with a -0.1% GDP and unemployment at eight percent doesn't really pass the smell test. Someday. Maybe. Note the video below with Rick Santelli, everyone's favorite financial ranter, extrapolating out on what we've been saying nearly every day on this blog: that being a trader is nearly impossible under current conditions.
And, just as a side note, New York Mayor Bloomberg, who first banned drink containers larger than 16 ounces, has proposed a ban on styrofoam containers, and... it's likely to pass his rubber stamp city council.
Let's see, smokes are $10-12 a pack in NY, you can't smoke in any of the bars, night clubs or public buildings; you must drink from small containers and those soon cannot be made of styrofoam. All this makes one pine for the good old days of the seventies. Ed Koch was mayor. Son of Sam was shooting kids in parking lots. Reggie Jackson was blasting balls out of the original Yankee Stadium and you could buy just about any kind of drug - from weed to cocaine - on just about any street corner. Bloomberg. He's just not a fun guy.
Dow 13,973.39, -9.52 (0.07%)
NASDAQ 3,198.66, +1.78 (0.06%)
S&P 500 1,521.38, +1.05 (0.07%)
NYSE Composite 8,951.33, -4.27 (0.05%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,884,832,750
NYSE Volume 3,867,864,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3259-3130
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 505-39
WTI crude oil: 97.31, +0.30
Gold: 1,635.50, -9.60
Silver: 30.35, -0.516
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
Dow Fails to Hold 14,000; Markets in Blah State
Market has a serious case of the blahs; Dow fails to hold 14,000. Expect it to hover below that level for another few weeks.
Sequestration is coming, but, until the politicians get serious about budget negotiations, the markets will reflect a similar attitude, as nothing special is expected.
Negotiations should have begun already, as the deadline is March 1, but, being as this congress is apt to procrastinate at every opportunity, don't expect anything substantive until the very end.
Meanwhile, it's tough to get excited about anything in this environment. Shorting or buying puts - other than for cheap protection - is out of the question, and the upside seems severely crimped.
Dow 13,982.91, -35.79 (0.26%)
Nasdaq 3,196.88, +10.39 (0.33%)
S&P 500 1,520.33, +0.90 (0.06%)
NYSE Composite 8,955.60, -2.00 (0.02%)
NYSE Volume 3,606,101,750
Nasdaq Volume 1,819,338,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3714-2716
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 538-29
WTI crude oil: 97.01, -0.50
Gold: 1,645.10, -4.50
Silver: 30.87, -0.15
Sequestration is coming, but, until the politicians get serious about budget negotiations, the markets will reflect a similar attitude, as nothing special is expected.
Negotiations should have begun already, as the deadline is March 1, but, being as this congress is apt to procrastinate at every opportunity, don't expect anything substantive until the very end.
Meanwhile, it's tough to get excited about anything in this environment. Shorting or buying puts - other than for cheap protection - is out of the question, and the upside seems severely crimped.
Dow 13,982.91, -35.79 (0.26%)
Nasdaq 3,196.88, +10.39 (0.33%)
S&P 500 1,520.33, +0.90 (0.06%)
NYSE Composite 8,955.60, -2.00 (0.02%)
NYSE Volume 3,606,101,750
Nasdaq Volume 1,819,338,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3714-2716
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 538-29
WTI crude oil: 97.01, -0.50
Gold: 1,645.10, -4.50
Silver: 30.87, -0.15
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
Print, Baby, Print; Dow Over 14,000 Again
The Dow topped the 14,000 mark for the first time since February 1, setting a closing high that was the best in more than five years.
Thank you, Mr. Bernanke.
There's no substitute for rampant liquidity in a market climate such as this one. Uncertainty continues to abound, the economies of the developed nations are in the proverbial toilet, circling the bowl either in recession (Europe), complete deflationary stagnation (Japan), or barely chugging along at under 2% GDP (USA).
Of late, the Japanese have embarked on "unlimited" quantitative easing (printing money with nothing at all backing it), though the US continues as king of the hill, with the world's largest sovereign economy, the Fed buying up all the rancid mortgage paper and monetizing the federal debt to the tune of $85 billion a month (a touch over $1 trillion per year, annualized).
Europe seems to be getting the message that it's finally time to play no-holds-barred currency war, though the socialists on the continent seem fairly sanguine about continuing their efforts to bail out banks and sovereigns one-by-one, a little at a time, rather than using the bazooka approach favored by Mr. Bernanke.
Sooner or later, the Europeans will devalue by printing, mostly because the high level of the Euro is crimping Germany's exports, and, if Germany's economy suffers, one can probably bet on the good people of Deutschland not being very supportive of the Euro and/or wanting more in return from their Euro-brethren to the south, who, like the American welfare caste, produce nothing, but get much in return.
So the US and other major countries will continue to print, print, print their feckless paper fiat, a time-honored practice that has never ended well, ever. In the meantime, however (and that meantime could stretch out to 2016, 2017, or beyond), one cannot fault stock investors in their search for yield. The past four years in stocks has been nothing but Fat City Easy Street to the xxxxxth degree. During the period from March 9, 2009 until the present, it's been nothing but straight up for stocks, to a point at which the general market is now sporting a 14 multiple, even though many companies are not growing earnings one whit, others making their numbers through cost-cutting and downsizing.
Global finance is in an unsustainable state, but, as long as the printing presses continue to churn out crisp currency, nobody seems to care.
There are signs that it's getting a bit wearisome. Oil is heading over $100 a barrel for WTI crude, despite a glut on the market, especially in the US. Food prices have moderated lately, but they're higher overall than a year, two, three years ago and will only rise from here.
It's a great market for speculators, especially those wearing blinders. Giddy-up!
Dow 14,018.70, +47.46 (0.34%)
NASDAQ 3,186.49, -5.51 (0.17%)
S&P 500 1,519.43, +2.42 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite 8,955.92, +36.90 (0.41%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,719,904,375
NYSE Volume 3,424,131,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4076-2361
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 450-31
WTI crude oil: 97.51, +0.48
Gold: 1,649.60, +0.50
Silver: 31.02, +0.109
Thank you, Mr. Bernanke.
There's no substitute for rampant liquidity in a market climate such as this one. Uncertainty continues to abound, the economies of the developed nations are in the proverbial toilet, circling the bowl either in recession (Europe), complete deflationary stagnation (Japan), or barely chugging along at under 2% GDP (USA).
Of late, the Japanese have embarked on "unlimited" quantitative easing (printing money with nothing at all backing it), though the US continues as king of the hill, with the world's largest sovereign economy, the Fed buying up all the rancid mortgage paper and monetizing the federal debt to the tune of $85 billion a month (a touch over $1 trillion per year, annualized).
Europe seems to be getting the message that it's finally time to play no-holds-barred currency war, though the socialists on the continent seem fairly sanguine about continuing their efforts to bail out banks and sovereigns one-by-one, a little at a time, rather than using the bazooka approach favored by Mr. Bernanke.
Sooner or later, the Europeans will devalue by printing, mostly because the high level of the Euro is crimping Germany's exports, and, if Germany's economy suffers, one can probably bet on the good people of Deutschland not being very supportive of the Euro and/or wanting more in return from their Euro-brethren to the south, who, like the American welfare caste, produce nothing, but get much in return.
So the US and other major countries will continue to print, print, print their feckless paper fiat, a time-honored practice that has never ended well, ever. In the meantime, however (and that meantime could stretch out to 2016, 2017, or beyond), one cannot fault stock investors in their search for yield. The past four years in stocks has been nothing but Fat City Easy Street to the xxxxxth degree. During the period from March 9, 2009 until the present, it's been nothing but straight up for stocks, to a point at which the general market is now sporting a 14 multiple, even though many companies are not growing earnings one whit, others making their numbers through cost-cutting and downsizing.
Global finance is in an unsustainable state, but, as long as the printing presses continue to churn out crisp currency, nobody seems to care.
There are signs that it's getting a bit wearisome. Oil is heading over $100 a barrel for WTI crude, despite a glut on the market, especially in the US. Food prices have moderated lately, but they're higher overall than a year, two, three years ago and will only rise from here.
It's a great market for speculators, especially those wearing blinders. Giddy-up!
Dow 14,018.70, +47.46 (0.34%)
NASDAQ 3,186.49, -5.51 (0.17%)
S&P 500 1,519.43, +2.42 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite 8,955.92, +36.90 (0.41%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,719,904,375
NYSE Volume 3,424,131,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4076-2361
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 450-31
WTI crude oil: 97.51, +0.48
Gold: 1,649.60, +0.50
Silver: 31.02, +0.109
Monday, February 11, 2013
No Algo Meat Means No Volume
Since roughly 85% of all market activity is handled via computer algorithm-based trading, there's good reason to suspect that market volume, such as today's - fast on the heels of Friday, which was the lowest volume day of the year (until today) - is going to become the norm, especially if much of the market news is either mundane or bad.
That's because the algos heartily chomp on good market news, profit being (in the words of perma-bull Larry Kudlow) the "mother's milk of the economy," and aren't programmed effectively (some surely are) to quantify downside momentum.
Nobody really wants to see stocks go down, so the quants (programmers) are all really in the bull camp when it comes to writing algos that work.
Did any of these Wall Street whiz kids ever think that skimming the market for pennies with their HFT algos was a bad idea? That it might scare people away from the market and that it might result in a market - in a time when media is controlled and highly contrived - with no liquidity that could go bidless?
Somebody should have looked at the downside of HFT and algo-based trading, because we're getting dangerously close to a market in which nobody wants to participate.
Other than today being the lowest volume session of 2013 (don't worry, there's another 10 1/2 months left to get it even lower), there was nothing of particular interest, except that European finance ministers opened a two-day session in which they will concoct new, more efficient methods of kicking the debt can down their particular road to perdition.
Editor's Note: On Sunday, CBS 60 Minutes aired a piece on the trust, cartel, or monopoly otherwise known as the credit reporting agencies - Equifax, TransUnion and Experian.
Anybody who's ever dealt with these firms - and who hasn't - will find the information in this report somewhat on the tame side, though still worth viewing.
The entire credit reporting scheme operated by these three firms, at the behest of the banks, credit card and finance companies, is a violation of every American's fifth amendment right to due process. A class action should be filed through the ACLU and the Justice Department (good luck with that) to shut this system down. It is horribly flawed, turning everybody into a number. Shades of biblical Apocalypse, indeed.
Watch CBS News Videos Online
Dow 13,971.24, -21.73 (0.16%)
NASDAQ 3,192.00, -1.87 (0.06%)
S&P 500 1,517.01, -0.92 (0.06%)
NYSE Composite 8,919.02, -16.22 (0.18%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,551,395,750
NYSE Volume 2,830,052,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2925-3479
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 332-31
WTI crude oil: 97.03, +1.31
Gold: 1,649.10, -17.80
Silver: 30.91, -0.531
That's because the algos heartily chomp on good market news, profit being (in the words of perma-bull Larry Kudlow) the "mother's milk of the economy," and aren't programmed effectively (some surely are) to quantify downside momentum.
Nobody really wants to see stocks go down, so the quants (programmers) are all really in the bull camp when it comes to writing algos that work.
Did any of these Wall Street whiz kids ever think that skimming the market for pennies with their HFT algos was a bad idea? That it might scare people away from the market and that it might result in a market - in a time when media is controlled and highly contrived - with no liquidity that could go bidless?
Somebody should have looked at the downside of HFT and algo-based trading, because we're getting dangerously close to a market in which nobody wants to participate.
Other than today being the lowest volume session of 2013 (don't worry, there's another 10 1/2 months left to get it even lower), there was nothing of particular interest, except that European finance ministers opened a two-day session in which they will concoct new, more efficient methods of kicking the debt can down their particular road to perdition.
Editor's Note: On Sunday, CBS 60 Minutes aired a piece on the trust, cartel, or monopoly otherwise known as the credit reporting agencies - Equifax, TransUnion and Experian.
Anybody who's ever dealt with these firms - and who hasn't - will find the information in this report somewhat on the tame side, though still worth viewing.
The entire credit reporting scheme operated by these three firms, at the behest of the banks, credit card and finance companies, is a violation of every American's fifth amendment right to due process. A class action should be filed through the ACLU and the Justice Department (good luck with that) to shut this system down. It is horribly flawed, turning everybody into a number. Shades of biblical Apocalypse, indeed.
Watch CBS News Videos Online
Dow 13,971.24, -21.73 (0.16%)
NASDAQ 3,192.00, -1.87 (0.06%)
S&P 500 1,517.01, -0.92 (0.06%)
NYSE Composite 8,919.02, -16.22 (0.18%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,551,395,750
NYSE Volume 2,830,052,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2925-3479
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 332-31
WTI crude oil: 97.03, +1.31
Gold: 1,649.10, -17.80
Silver: 30.91, -0.531
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