As expected, the inauguration of Donald J. Trump and J.D. Vance as President and Vice President of the Unitd States and their immediate and decisive actions took precedence over anything and everything related to stocks, bonds, money flows, economic data, and even football.
In a wave of executive orders, proclamations and policy directives, Trump and his troops had obviously prepared to "flood the zone", leaving officials in Washington, DC gaping in awe over the swiftness of change brought by the new administration.
Among the more prominent and profound changes effected in just the first six days of Trump's presidency, were:
An end to all DEI and "woke" ideologies
Ordering all federal employees back to office work five days a week
Declared a national emergency at the U.S. southern border and began sending Military troops there
Declared a national energy emergency
Rounding up of illegal immigrants and mass deportations
Renaming the Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of America
Federal hiring freeze
Federal regulation freeze
Issued pardons to January 6 prisoners
Made two genders - male and female - official U.S. policy
Revoked security clearances of 51 former intelligence officials
Removed security details from Anthony Fauci, John Bolton, and others
Overturned many of Biden's EOs and froze or recaptured funds from the Infrastructure Act and Inflation Reduction Act
Put an end to "Green New Deal" policies and subsidies
Extended Tik-Toc negotiations
Released hostages in GAZA
There was more, a lot more, and, honestly, Mr. Trump is just getting started. By the end of the week, Democrats and their RINO brothers and sisters-in-arms in congress were left trying to put out so many fires they didn't know where to aim their hoses. Meanwhile, Trump was lighting up new ones.
Trump appeared virtually to the assembled movers and shakers at the WEF in Davos. He flew out to California to set guidelines for federal aid to victims of fires in and around Los Angeles, pissing off Governor Newsome and the LA mayor.
He sent the Army Corps of Engineers down to western North Carolina to assist in disaster aid.
He wants to dismantle FEMA.
Pete Hesgeth was confirmed as Secretary of Defense with JD Vance casting the deciding vote.
Trump intimated that the 88,000 new IRS hires authorized by congress and Biden would be fired or reassigned (only half-jokingly, "to the border," said Trump)
Depending on sources, Trump fired anywhere from 12 to 18 inspectors general on Friday.
Still on the agenda are, in no particular order, Ukraine, taxes, tariffs, schools, Space Force, Mars, etc. It's going to be an interesting four years.
In an interesting, but decidedly different direction from where Trump was/is taking the country, the Supreme Court voted 8-1 to lift an injunction halting Beneficial Ownership Interest reporting requirements for the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA). The only dissent came from Justice Ketanji Brown (you cannot make this stuff up).
On Thursday, Jan. 23, Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito granted the federal government its application to lift a Dec. 5 Texas federal district court order that blocked the Corporate Transparency Act. However, Alito’s order does not apply to a Jan. 7 injunction in a separate case.
Effectively, nothing changed. The FinCEN website issued another in a series of alerts:
In light of a recent federal court order, reporting companies are not currently required to file beneficial ownership information with FinCEN and are not subject to liability if they fail to do so while the order remains in force. However, reporting companies may continue to voluntarily submit beneficial ownership information reports.
The "regulation" requires small business owners of LLCs, C-Corps and S-Corps with fewer than 20 employees and $5 million in sales to report owners with a beneficial interest of 25% or more in a company. Besides being selective legislation targeting a specific group (small business) and exemptions for accountants, banks, brokerages, and other financial institutions, the "rule" (it's not a law) violates the 4th, 5th and 10th amendments, according to opponents.
Going forward, with Trump's ban on new regulations, there's a very good likelihood that he'd issue an executive order nullifying the rule and its requirements, or, once Pam Bondi is confirmed as Attorney General, she could just shut down the governments appeals and defenses, or, congress could pass the "Repealing Big Brother Overreach Act", reintroduced Wednesday, January 15, by Senator Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., and Rep. Warren Davidson, R-Ohio.
One way or another, it appears the dystopian, Orwellian-style attempt to further cripple small businesses in the name of national security is DOA.
Stocks
Stocks went up quite a bit. There wasn't any data to support rising equity prices and only a few choice earnings announcements, some good, some bad. Everybody, especially the money folks on Wall Street, were happy just to have an actual living, breathing president rather than wonder who was running the country.
Financial types were all so caught up in the whirlwind of Trump and the excitement of the week they couldn't resist hitting the BUY button over and over and over again. When things calm down - if ever - there may be some pullback in stocks, but it will most likely be only temporary. Trump's agenda for American businesses and the economy are clearly headed for more fertile ground, with fewer regulations and government impediments and red tape, which should translate into record after record on the Dow, NASDAQ, S&P, Russell, and NYSE Composite.
That may appear to be a simplistic attitude toward equity investments, but there's little doubt that Trump's policies will be beneficial to almost all businesses, from small farmers to mega-corporations. He's promised a "golden age" and Wall Street will be more than happy to comply.
The week ahead is a very busy week for fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings reports:
Monday: (before open) SoFi (SOFI), AT&T (T), Ryanair (RYAAY); (after close) Sanmina (SANM), Nucor (NUE), Crane (CR).
Tuesday: (before open) Lockheed Martin (LMT), Synchrony Financial (SYF), JetBlue (JBLU), Boeing (BA), General Motors (GM), Royal Caribbean (RCL), Sysco (SYY), Kimberly-Clark ((KMB); (after close) Logitech (LOGI), SAP (SAP), Chubb (CB), LendingClub (LC).
Wednesday: (before open) Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA), Progressive Insurance (PGR), General Dynamics (GD), ADP (ADP), T-Mobile (TMUS), ASML (ASML); (after close) Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), Lam Research (LRCX), Microsoft (MSFT).
Thursday: (before open) Caterpillar (CAT), Dow (DOW), MasterCard (MA), Comcast (CMCSA), Nokia (NOK), Southwest Airlines (LUV), UPS (UPS); (after close) Intel (INTC), Apple (AAPL), Visa (V), US Steel (X), Baker Hughes (BKR).
Friday: (before open) Abbvie (ABBV), Chevron (CVX), ExxonMoil (XOM), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Phillips 66 (PSX), Novartis (NVS), Booze Allen Hamilton (BAH).
The data calendar will be focused on the Fed's FOMC meeting Tuesday, with the policy announcement, press conference and economic projections Wednesday, initial reading on U.S. GDP on Thursday, and the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index Friday. Trump's Executive Orders and proclamations from the Oval Office will continue to draw attention away from the usual suspects, though it isn't likely to be at as frenetic a pace as the first week of his presidency. Well, maybe.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 12/20/2024 | 4.43 | 4.42 | 4.34 | 4.35 | 4.29 | 4.27 |
| 12/27/2024 | 4.44 | 4.43 | 4.31 | 4.35 | 4.29 | 4.20 |
| 01/03/2025 | 4.44 | 4.35 | 4.34 | 4.31 | 4.25 | 4.18 |
| 01/10/2025 | 4.42 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 4.33 | 4.27 | 4.25 |
| 01/17/2025 | 4.43 | 4.35 | 4.34 | 4.32 | 4.28 | 4.21 |
| 01/24/2025 | 4.45 | 4.36 | 4.35 | 4.32 | 4.25 | 4.17 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 12/20/2024 | 4.30 | 4.32 | 4.37 | 4.45 | 4.52 | 4.79 | 4.72 |
| 12/27/2024 | 4.31 | 4.36 | 4.45 | 4.53 | 4.62 | 4.89 | 4.82 |
| 01/03/2025 | 4.28 | 4.32 | 4.41 | 4.51 | 4.60 | 4.88 | 4.82 |
| 01/10/2025 | 4.40 | 4.46 | 4.59 | 4.70 | 4.77 | 5.04 | 4.96 |
| 01/17/2025 | 4.27 | 4.33 | 4.42 | 4.52 | 4.61 | 4.91 | 4.84 |
| 01/24/2025 | 4.27 | 4.33 | 4.43 | 4.53 | 4.63 | 4.91 | 4.85 |
While President Trump was busy re-shaping America into a form more in line with the intents of the Founding Fathers, bond holders and the Fed were left holding their belts (to put it kindly).
Interest rates hardly budged. The largest move, in fact, was a mere four basis points lower on 1-year notes. The Federal Reserve, whether by presidential design or the mere suggestion that it has outlived its purpose, is going to become increasingly irrelevant as President Trump moves forward with his far-reaching agenda. Already, Trump has publicly implored the Fed to lower rates. Whether they're listening or not will be evidenced by their policy decision this week, on Wednesday, January 29.
Odds are that the Fed stands pat at 4.25-4.50% on the federal funds target rate, though, if Trump's impact hits home, a lowering by 25 basis points may be on the table.
The Fed has to weigh many diverse variables in making their decision. Trump throws a spanner into their wheelhouse. He's unpredictable, though ostensibly, pragmatic. What may unfold, through fiscal austerity on the government's part (yes, it could, and, in fact, is likely to happen) is what looks, smells and feels like a recession, with government workers out on the streets in big numbers.
However, given the mass deportations of illegals, there will be plenty of job openings. Whether laid-off or fired government lazy-bodies can handle dishwashing, crop harvesting, floor mopping, roofing, lawn care, or toilet cleaning remains to be seen. Immigrants, according to reliable sources, took jobs Americans wouldn't do. When unemployment benefits and severance pay begins running out, the former federal paper-pushers may think have to swallow whatever is left of their pride and do menial labor at what would amount to reasonable wages.
Another area that's yet to be explored is what Trump (and, by extension, the Republican-led congress) may do concerning high debt levels, particularly on high-interest credit cards. Could Americans find relief through a re-imposition of usury laws? It's not something the President could do with the stroke of a pen or an Executive Order, though he might try it. A little rollback and pushback against the entrenched financial pirates and their outsized profit centers might just be a further good for the country overall and there's little doubt Trump has it on his radar.
There is also the consideration of mortgage rates falling in the face of what would amount to not necessarily a recession, but a re-ordering of priorities, one of which would clearly be affordability in housing. Whether interest rates decline of their own accord dynamically or by fiat, they're coming down along with food prices, gas prices, taxes, regulations, and just about everything else, except, maybe, wages.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
Oil/Gas
WTI crude oil prices backed off during the week, from $77.37 at the New York close on January 17, to $74.60 on Friday, abruptly ending four straight weeks of rising price action. As expected, recent oil prices were a reflection of wild speculation and not based on fundamentals. With President Trump pushing for lower oil and gas prices, and imploring energy companies to "drill, baby, drill", prices began to head immediately lower upon inauguration.
With energy independence Trump's stated goal, the other side of that coin makes the U.S. an oil exporter, competing with the Saudis, Russia, and OPEC in world markets. That dynamic alone is eventually going to cause a glut in available product and result in lower prices worldwide. While that may not make the holders of stocks like ExxonMobil or Occidental Petroleum happy, it will produce savings for the mobile consumer, who will be able to put their discretionary funds to work elsewhere and eventually lower the costs for most consumer goods, including food.
The likely ground zero for oil prices is probably around $45-50 per barrel, which, in a relatively stable inflationary (or deflationary) environment should allow producers enough profit margin to remain viable. Even more cost-intensive efforts like fracking, shale, or oil sands will be profitable, if only marginally, due to existing operations, lower input costs, and advancements in technology.
As the Alaskan frontier and offshore platforms are opened up and Green New Deal policies are abandoned, there will be more oil and natural gas, especially when coal mines re-open and coal-fired plants begin to make a comeback. Trump didn't mention "beautiful, clean coal" for nothing. America has an abundance of coal, and Trump plans on using it in his push to re-industrialize the nation.
Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump down a penny from last week, at $3.12 a gallon Sunday morning. It's about the only thing that hasn't changed radically over the past week, but, considering ongoing policies and oil prices, down, down, down seems to be the direction of prices at the pump.
California continues at the top of the heap, unchanged, at $4.41 a gallon.
Pennsylvania prices jumped three cents, at $3.37, with the Keystone State the price leader in the Northeast. New York saw a slightly smaller change, at $3.16. Connecticut ($3.08) was up slightly while Massachusetts ($3.02) was higher by only a penny. Maryland prices were lower by two cents, at $3.30.
Illinois fell, but only one cent, to $3.25. Ohio ($2.96) and Indiana ($3.01) were both lower and likely headed down further.
Mississippi ($2.64) gave back low price leadership to Oklahoma ($2.62). Following are Texas ($2.68), Louisiana ($2.70), Tennessee ($2.74), Arkansas ($2.76), and Alabama ($2.77). Following those are Kansas ($2.80), South Carolina ($2.84), and Missouri ($2.85). Florida's was up another three cents, at $3.21, Georgia continues to flirt with $3, remaining at $2.95 this weekend.
Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in only 26 U.S. states, though that number will probably be closer to 40 a month down the road. The Northeast and West coast remain the over-$3.00 holdouts.
Arizona ($3.14) is up eleven cents from two weeks out. Oregon showed prices higher, at $3.51, Nevada at $3.61, and Washington at $3.92, leaving only California above $4.00. Utah ($2.96) and Idaho ($3.01) were stable.
Bitcoin
This week: $105,019.30
Last week: $105,074.80
2 weeks ago: $94,640.44
6 months ago: $67,845.70
One year ago: $43,032.22
Five years ago: $9,903.90
Even as President Trump issued an executive order advancing the interests of crypto-currencies, alt-coins, stable-coins, and everything that goes with it, the order failed to recommend establishment of a cyrpto or bitcoin reserve, as many embracing the crypto universe had been hoping.
Instead, days before Trump officially became president, $TRUMP and $melania tokens were released, much to the dismay of no-coiners Trump enthusiasts. Speculators pounced on both initially before selling off, the subtle message - probably not well-received by the investment community or the diamond-hand hodlers hoping to make millions on their vaporwares - along with an X coin from Elon Musk, that crypto is about as fake as your average three-dollar bill.
Sure, you can cash them in at some places and get a nine-dollar bill for three 3s, but it's still useless. The point being made is that crypto is essentially crap-to, a major worldwide scam, a honey pot for illegal activity, and definitely not a store of value nor medium of exchange.
Did Trump make money off his new coin? Probably. Was it legal? Probably. Was it ethical? Depends on who's almond buttering your avocado toast. Crypto is more likely to be dismantled by the Trump administration as it is to be embraced as a viable alternative to good old cash in U.S. greenbacks.
Time to get over it.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 89.48; last week: 88.24
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 12/27: $2,636.50
Gold price 1/5: $2,652.70
Gold price 1/12: $2,717.40
Gold price 1/19: $2,740.00
Gold price 1/26: $2,777.40
Silver price 12/27: $29.98
Silver price 1/5: $30.10
Silver price 1/12: $31.30
Silver price 1/19: $31.05
Silver price 1/26: $31.04
Gold continued it's upside momentum, while silver made some gains during the week, only to give the bulk of them back as the week drew to a close.
How precious metals will perform with Trump in the White House is probably not going to be as pleasant an experience as under Joe Biden, when Western nations suffered through first a pandemic and then extraodinarily-high rates of inflation. Under Trump, inflation will be tempered by an economy that is growing in different directions, with on-shoring of industrial capacity creating jobs and prosperity. The safety mechanism provided by precious metal investments will not be as pronounced, despite America embarking upon a "golden" age.
Silver, due to its industrial demand, may find better footing overall. Judging by the ridiculous gold-silver ratio reaching close to 90 this week, prospects for silver price appreciation seem good, though market manipulation is likely to continue until regulations are either eased, enforced, or altogether abandoned in favor of price discovery via open markets overseas, not in London, Chicago, or New York, but in places like Dubai, Shanghai, Singapore, Hong Kong, Moscow, Istanbul, and other international money centers.
Fiat currencies remain in a death spiral, though a complete unwinding of a monetary regime can last for decades or even centuries. Gold and silver remain worthwhile long-term holds for safety net purposes and generational wealth, though price appreciation may not be as generous as has been previously afforded. There also exists the possibility of price easing in a dis-inflationary or outright deflationary environment.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 36.78 | 47.90 | 41.11 | 40.50 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 36.00 | 49.95 | 41.40 | 40.64 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 2,851.00 | 2,998.51 | 2,911.94 | 2,908.10 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 2,865.00 | 2,953.97 | 2,911.19 | 2,903.39 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell moderately, to $40.91, a drop of $1.00 from the January 19 price of $41.91 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
Well, that was a fun week, and, those who are still trying to digest all that happened in the first week of Trump's second presidential term, better get your thinking caps on, because it's not going to slow down much. All of the declarations and proclamations are moving forward at a rapid pace, the deployment and development of policies are going to make everybody dizzy for while.
In the most general sense, America is going to be a better place overall and some trends are going to accelerate. It's worth celebrating the destruction of the mainstream media lying propaganda project, with CBS anchor. Norah O'Donnell calling it quits this week (with cringe-worthy endorsement from Oprah, another person of disinterest and potential disappearance).
Censorship, doxxing, de-monetizing, demonizing, and de-platforming cannot end soon enough. Here's hoping President Trump will have a major impact on the social media front. America needs healing following four years of deep cuts and wounds.
At the Close, Friday, January 24, 2025:
Dow: 44,424.25, -140.82 (-0.32%)
NASDAQ: 19,954.30, -99.38 (-0.50%)
S&P 500: 6,101.24, -17.47 (-0.29%)
NYSE Composite: 19,997.47, +18.69 (+0.09%)
For the Week:
Dow: +936.42 (+2.15%)
NASDAQ: +324.10 (+1.65%)
S&P 500: +104.58 (+1.74%)
NYSE Composite: +390.10 (+1.99%)
Dow Transports: +174.69 (+1.06%)
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