End of Empire Economics: Tariffs, Piracy, Tech, Power Grid Generation, AI, Refund Checks, GDP, Debt, and Borrowing; Silver Soars to Record High; 3Q GDP Arrives Tuesday

Sick of it all yet?

As the empire of lies sinks slowly into the morass of unchecked criminality, lost economic data, doctored files, and still, NOT A SINGLE PROSECUTION OF ANY ELECTED OFFICIAL IN WASHINGTON D.C., Americans are quietly separating themselves from all association with government, banking, and for some, reality itself.

It has become, especially over the past five years, increasingly difficult for sane people to live ordinary lives in the United States. In some European countries, it's even worse. People are jailed for criticizing government policies, Islam, Ukraine, transgenderism or anything else the modern-day fascists in the UK, France, and especially Germany can deem hate speech or simply disallowed speech.

Next, thought crimes.

Gold and silver continue to send a message that few are capable of deciphering. The money, the almighty dollar, trillions conjured out of thin air, is failing. Grocery shopping alone will verify that fact. In the meantime, the president boasts, congress rots from within, and the institutions that were once revered by the public - Treasury, the Federal Reserve, State Department, and others - are reviled as mere facades, dishonest representations in denial of America's decline.

This week the financial markets gleefully welcomed CPI results from October and November that showed inflation ebbing, even though there was no actual data presented for those two months. Inflation, according to the most on-their-face bogus reports ever from the BLS - which is saying a lot coming from those serially-incorrect number crunchers - fell on an annual basis from 3.0% to 2.7%. While that may be all fine and dandy, real world experience reads differently.

The government and media don't want Americans to read or see or hear about record numbers of small business bankruptcies, rapidly increasing credit card and auto loan delinquencies and defaults, evictions, student loan defaults, and the breakdown of the consumer economy. No, they want your focus to be on tariffs, or Russia, or China, the sworn enemies of the deep state which should be yours as well.

“War is when the government tells us who the enemy is. Revolution is when we figure it out for ourselves.” — Benjamin Franklin

Here are just a few nuggets:

U.S. households collectively carry about $18.6 trillion in total debt, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

About 19.17 percent of the people in Minnesota had credit card accounts that were delinquent in the second quarter. That's nearly one in five.

Ameicans are still awaiting third quarter GDP results, now that the fourth quarter is nearly over. The first look arrives Tuesday, if one is to believe the BEA:

BEA will release two estimates of third-quarter GDP, instead of the usual three estimates over three months:

The advance estimate of third-quarter GDP, originally scheduled during October, was canceled.

Dec. 23: Initial estimate of third-quarter GDP, including the preliminary estimate of corporate profits (replaces the typical advance and second estimates).

Jan. 22: Updated estimate (replaces the typical third estimate).

GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025 will be rescheduled. These data were originally scheduled for release on Jan. 29, 2026. Sufficient source data will not be available in time for the original release date.

Gross Domestic Product by State and Personal Income by State, 3rd Quarter 2025 will be released on Jan. 23, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. These data were originally scheduled for release on Dec. 22.

If 3rd quarter GDP isn't at least three percent (3.0%), look out below, but there's reason to believe it will come in very close to that figure, because the preferred narrative requires growth, whether there is or isn't any. With the first quarter of 2025 at -0.6, and the second quarter boasting growth of 3.8%, even if Q3 and Q4 come in at 3.0% each, that still only gets full year GDP to 2.3%, which is pretty dull, though it does provide a great jumping off point for 2026 and the president's goal of keeping the House and Senate in the midterms. Barring shutdowns or disruptions, the economic releases for 1Q, 2Q, and the initial estimate for 3Q 2026 will be out prior to the November elections.

Bankruptcies are up across-the-board in the U.S.:

According to data through November from Epiq Bankruptcy Analytics, 2,221 companies had sought temporary protection from creditors or had simply ceased operations under Subchapter V rules. Those measures were created in 2019 to make it easier for small businesses to declare bankruptcy. That 11-month total for 2025 was 8 percent higher than the number of the same filings for all of 2024.

More broadly, bankruptcies filed by U.S. companies of all sizes increased by nearly 6 percent during the 12 months that ended September 30, according to the quarterly report by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. When non-business filings were added, the tally reached 557,376, or 10.6 percent more than the year before — the highest volume since 2020.

The government's tariff revenues in November ticked down for the first time since President Trump began implementing his historic duties, according to new totals from the US Treasury Department.

The agency's monthly statement for November, released on Wednesday, saw a reading of $30.76 billion in customs duties collected, following an October reading of $31.35 billion.

In a recent address, President Trump claimed to be using tariff revenues to send members of the military a check for $1,776, a "warrior dividend", when actually, the money was already appropriated by congress in the form of military housing subsidies. The president just spent more money the government doesn't have.

Not to sound all gloom and doom, prices will come down, because hyperinflation is normally followed by a general economic depression.

In the meantime, the U.S. military is busy rounding up sanctioned oil tankers near Venezuela. On Saturday, a second tanker was seized by the U.S. Coast Guard, while the first one, known as "the Skipper" (and Gilligan, too?) is headed to Galveston, ostensibly, its oil to be offloaded and sent to U.S. refineries. This is great for drivers, who want to see prices at the pump drop even further. Using stolen oil - which, according to the president's very own pretzel logic, was stolen from the United States even though it came from beneath Venezuelan soil - helps Make America Great Again (MAGA).

Theft and high seas piracy have made a big comeback at the end of 2025, a trend which is likely to continue in 2026. One wonders why anybody would have to steal oil, though, being there's a huge glut on world markets. Americans are told that fishing boats are blown to smithereens, but oil tankers are seized, because, besides making a huge mess in the ocean, that oil was going to be used to support "narco-terrorism", whatever that is. Besides, Venezuela's president Maduro is a bad guy, so is Putin, but Xi Jinping, well, he's just "tough."

Treasury Secretary Bessent was out boasting about how Americans would be getting large tax refunds in 2026, thanks to Trump's economic policies. While that certainly should be the case, taxpayers need to be reminded that their refunds are money they unwittingly loaned to the government interest-free, which is a better deal than the Treasury Department gets from the Federal Reserve, foreigners, primary dealers and private sources, which buys government debt at about four percent.

Lately, all the talk has been about AI, data centers, enhanced power generation and grid expansion. Gas generators are filling the void until utilities can ramp up to meet increasing data center needs. Expanding and updating the U.S. electric grid is long overdue. Who knew all it took was big tech to discover they needed more power to get it done. This is an area of positive development.

On the backend of this massive AI/tech/power buildout there remains plenty of doubt about eventual return of capital. Big tech is shelling out hundreds of billions to facilitate their AI dreams, though nobody has yet made any realistic case for revenue even coming close to costs.

With congress in recess until around January 6, there was no resolution on expiring health care subsidies, which were supposedly the whole point of shutting down the government from the first of October to mid-November. If healthcare still isn't resolved to Democrat party satisfaction, why is there no screaming and yelling in congress? That seems to make the point all by itself. The government shutdown was planned by both parties specifically to hide horrific economic conditions from the American public, and they've succeeded, with another shutdown possible at the end of January, when the money they approved in November runs out. They'll need another continuing resolution to avoid a shutdown and another round of lost or misplaced economic data, which seems to be the whole point.

At the end of the day, the government still cannot control spending. The federal deficit will come in close to $2 trillion this year, despite claims that tariff revenue will cut into that gaping hole. Revenue from tariffs will amount to roughly $300-400 billion, a drop in the bucket of the $7 trillion in government spending. Further, if individual income taxes are down, all the tariffs accomplish is moving money from one source to another. The government gets tariffs, the people pay more for goods and services, but get a tax break. At best, it's a wash.

With U.S. government debt growing at a rate of about $3 million a minute ($180 million an hour, $4.3 billion a day), the federal debt should reach $40 trillion right around the 2026 midterm elections. Will any of the candidates for Senate or House seats make it an issue? Unlikely, since they're all partly to blame for it, passing spending resolutions uncovered by revenue, continuing to borrow like spendthrift sailors on shore leave.

Eventually, all that debt is supposed to be paid back, but it never will be. At some point, people notice, other countries notice, and the U.S. can't just go on bullying and borrowing. In the distance, a piper is playing and when he arrives, he will want to be paid.

Stocks

Stocks had a ho-hum week thanks to completely bogus numbers from the BLS, which cited inflation (CPI) falling from 3.0% to 2.7% on an annualized basis. The bean conters who failed to provide data for October and November somehow managed to conjure up a number that would be palatable to the government and Wall Street, which lapped it up like kittens on buttermilk. Stocks were down significantly through Wednesday, but perked right up on giddy anti-infaltion talk.

Still, gains for the week were negligible on the NASDAQ and S&P with the Composite and Dow lower. Thus far in December stocks haven't had much to cheer about, with the Dow the only major to the upside, about 418 points, the NASDAQ down 60 and the S&P off 22. There are seven trading days left in the year. For all you Grinches and Scrooges, Christmas is Thursday and the market is closed. Stocks will trade only until 1:00 pm ET on Wednesday, December 24 (Christmas Eve).

The Dow Jones Transportation Average continued to flirt with its all-time high (17,754.38, November 25, 2024), closing at 17620.19 on December 11 and since has pulled back, closing at 17557.96 on Friday. This keeps the three or four extant Dow Theorists remaining in the camp that believes the rally on the Industrials is simply fairy dust and not indicative of a primary trend, which remains bearish since the Transports have not confirmed the change in primary trend. The transports are notably well above their 50-day moving average while the others are nestled just above theirs.

While they may be technically right, they've managed to miss out on about 4,000 points on the industrials since the end of November, 2024, which was when the Transports peaked and retreated. Should the Trannies tack on another 200 or so points and hold them, there might be reason to believe that stocks will be off to the races in 2026. The highly anticipated "Santa Rally" which usually occurs the last two weeks of the year may be highly dependent on how well the BEA can fake 3rd quarter GDP on Tuesday.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
11/14/2025	4.04	4.02	4.01	3.95	3.88	3.80	3.70
11/21/2025	4.03	4.01	4.00	3.90	3.84	3.75	3.62
11/28/2025	4.05	3.97	3.99	3.88	3.86	3.74	3.61
12/05/2025	3.82	3.78	3.77	3.71	3.73	3.68	3.61
12/12/2025	3.76	3.75	3.75	3.63	3.64	3.58	3.54
12/19/2025	3.71	3.71	3.72	3.62	3.64	3.60	3.51

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
11/14/2025	3.62	3.61	3.74	3.92	4.14	4.73	4.74
11/21/2025	3.51	3.50	3.62	3.82	4.06	4.67	4.71
11/28/2025	3.47	3.49	3.59	3.78	4.02	4.62	4.67
12/05/2025	3.56	3.59	3.72	3.90	4.14	4.75	4.79
12/12/2025	3.52	3.58	3.75	3.95	4.19	4.82	4.85
12/19/2025	3.48	3.53	3.70	3.91	4.16	4.77	4.82

Yields were static for the week, with the only discernible movement in notes, lower by three to five basis points on the week between 2-year and 10-year maturities.

With no commitment by the Fed to do anything in January in terms of cutting rates, the entire yield curve still suffers from inversion, as 1-month and 5-year yields are essentially the same. Spreads widened slightly, with full spectrum at +111 and 2s-10s at +68, both long-term highs, making loan origination more art than science and completely selective, requiring diligence and high credit-worthiness.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58
12/12: +67
12/19: +68

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97
12/12: +109
12/19: +111

Oil/Gas

WTI crude closed out the week at $56.54, down almost a buck from last week's $57.53, but not before cratering to $54.97 on Tuesday. Oil continues to resist buying in on the economic expansion narrative. There's oversupply everywhere, indicative of slowing economies.

The U.S. national average for gas at the pump fell to $2.82, the lowest price in roughly five years and another seven cents lower than the prior week, according to Gasbuddy.com. Given the current climate, gas prices should continue to decline over the near term.

California remains the highest in the lower 48 states, at $4.27 per gallon, down 8 cents on the week and 39 cents over the past five weeks, followed by Washington ($3.92), leaving the Golden State alone in the $4+ club for the first time in two years. Oregon ($3.48), was down 10 cents. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma holding steady at $2.24, up just one cent from last week's multi-year low. Arkansas ($2.35) and Colorado ($2.37) were nearby. Louisiana ($2.40), Mississippi ($2.42) and Texas ($2.43) follow, each marginally lower. The remaining Southeast states are all below $2.71 with the exception of Florida ($2.86).

In the Northeast, prices remain slightly elevated, though joining a general decline. Only Pennsylvania ($3.10), Vermont ($3.07) and New York ($3.05) are above $3.00.

In the midwest region, where the price relief has been significant, Illinois ($2.90) finally dropped below $3.00. At the low end were Colorado ($2.37), Iowa ($2.44), and Wyoming ($2.45).

Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in fully 40 states, a gain of four from last week and up 14 over the past two weeks. Not including Alaska and Hawaii, there are just eight states with gas prices above $3.00 and just one, California, over $4.00.

Bitcoin

This week: $88,044.85
Last week: $89,338.22
2 weeks ago: $90,860.37
6 months ago: $102,394.40
One year ago: $96,193.61
Five years ago: $26,449.16

Bitcoin remains in a range below $90,000. Every time it appears to be on the move to the upside, it pulls back. That's probably because of its cyclical nature and declining utility as a liquidity provider, heading to $30,000 or lower.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 64.54; last week: 69.30

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 11/21: $4,099.20
Gold price 11/28: $4,256.40
Gold price 12/5: $4,227.70
Gold price 12/12: $4,329.80
Gold price 12/19: $4,368.70

Silver price 11/21: $50.33
Silver price 11/28: $57.08
Silver price 12/5: $58.80
Silver price 12/12: $62.08
Silver price 12/19: $67.39

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 11/21: $4,063.98
Gold 11/28: $4,216.71
Gold 12/5: $4,196.63
Gold 12/12: $4,297.29
Gold 12/19: $4,337.83

Silver 11/21: $49.97
Silver 11/28: $56.37
Silver 12/5: $58.28
Silver 12/12: $62.01
Silver 12/19: $67.21

If you thought last week was good for silver, this week was simply awesome, with the spot price rising from $62.01 to $67.21, Friday close to Friday close. Gold has gained the past three weeks and appears ready to strike out above $4,355, the all-time high. Consolidation appears to be complete. If gold gains over the next two weeks, silver is likely to close out the year at $70 or higher, a price target the brokerages have labeled for 2026. They're completely anti-gold and anti-silver as policy, so many of their analysts are likely to be biting their lips, having missed out on mammoth profits.

The gold:silver ratio continues to descend. When it hits 50, fiat money will begin to disintegrate more rapidly. By the time it gets back to historic levels of 20: or 15:1 or 10:1, fiat currencies will be absolutely worthless, sending the world into an economic depression. Give it a few more years, or months, or maybe weeks. None other than Mike Maloney recently opined that he expects the gold:silver ratio to fall to a low of 20:1, or even 10:1, which would accelerate silver's price seven-fold over gold's advances.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	65.00	79.99	72.99	72.00
1 oz silver bar:	67.99	81.75	74.75	75.00
1 oz gold coin:	4,479.50	4,659.50	4,548.73	4,532.99
1 oz gold bar:	4,350.00	4,599.50	4,526.63	4,530.01

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) delivered, for the fourth straight week, what can only be described as a monumental gain, the first time marking over $70, to $73.69, up an incredible $5.54 from the December 14 price of $68.15 per troy ounce. The small-denomination, physical market continues to add high premia over spot and derivative market pricing, making a mockery of the COMEX price-rigging.

WEEKEND WRAP

For anybody not paying attention, silver, while not quite currency, might as well be, as it is at price levels to be regarded as money and not simply an industrial metal. One-ounce silver coins like Eagles, Maples, Kookaburras, Libertads, and Pandas will just about cover a week's groceries today. Two years ago, those same coins were selling for $25 at dealers worldwide. Today, an ounce of silver gets you more than 20 gallons of gas, which is amazing and alarming at the same time, because back in 1963, five silver quarters would only buy about five gallons, and gas was supposedly cheap then.

So, is silver in a bubble or is the entire economy upside-down? We’ll take the latter on that one.

The floating fiat currency era is coming to an end. The price suppressors no longer work as the world has discovered the scam after more than 50 years.

It's about time.

Merry Christmas, stackers.

At the Close, Friday, December 19, 2025:
Dow: 48,134.89, +183.04 (+0.38%)
NASDAQ: 23,307.62, +301.26 (+1.31%)
S&P 500: 6,834.50, +59.74 (+0.88%)
NYSE Composite: 21,923.93, +116.06 (+0.53%)

For the Week:
Dow: -323.16 (-0.67%)
NASDAQ: +112.45 (+0.48%)
S&P 500: +7.09 (+0.10%)
NYSE Composite: -80.42 (-0.37%)
Dow Transports: +53.39 (+0.31%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Japan Hikes Interest Rates 0.25%; Carry Trade Unwinding, again; Japan to Decide the Direction of Global Finance; Upside Pressure on Gold and Silver Continues

Once again, the end of a week has come, this one relatively painless though a bit bumpy. U.S. stocks generally took the low road. As of Thursday's closing bell, the Dow was down 506 points, NASDAQ slipped 188 points, and the S&P 500 dropped 52.

Last week's big winner, the Dow Jones Transportation Average, was flattish, though u 12 points on the week, close to its all-time high, flashing bullish signals at Dow Theorists. The Trannies never confirmed the primary bull trend of the Dow. Maybe it doesn't need to do so, given old school dynamics have been supplanted by AI and other market indicators, some of which work, others that give incomplete views, even more that suffer from irrational reasoning.

In any case, the bull marches onward, despite a scare from the Bank of Japan and the demise of the "carry trade", in which the venerable institution raised interest rates 0.25%. Japan finds itself at a crossroads, with the general economy and the currency itself in the crosshairs, needing to save one or the other, but not both. If recent history is any kind of guide, it suggests the authorities in Japan will do little to salvage its currency, the yen, which is down sharply against the U.S. dollar the past three days and especially overnight, the USD:JPY pair rising from 155.59 to 157.29 in the past 12 hours.

A devalued yen carries certain obvious trade advantages while at the same time causing domestic inflation, something which Japan has yearned for since the demise of its economy back in the 1980s, and which it is now about to get, in spades. Rising costs of imports upon which Japan is heavily dependent, may lead to domestic grumbling and dissatisfaction, very un-Japan-like, given how gracious, reserved, and polite Japanese people usually are. Considering the alternative - a deep recession or devastating depression - the Japanese people and their leaders would probably opt to throw off the yoke of Western imperialism which has bound them since the end of World War II.

Japan, which has long been the outright leader in sophisticated Keynesian experimentation and fine-tuning, may find the path of least resistance in wholesale devaluation without guardrails, a condition that might lead to more severe problems for their trading partners. An escape hatch from 80 years of U.S. neocolonialism is opening wide enough for Japan's financial authorities to walk right through into a new economic order, one predicated on hard assets rather then tired, worn-out promises from the West. Japan sees development all around it and may be willing to depart from long-standing alliances that has turned the country into little more than a U.S. vassal state.

A yen collapse would reverberate wildly throughout the global economy. It's not something anybody should fear nor not see coming. The demise of the weakest of the fiat currencies has been telegraphed for decades. The break, which is likely to be not sudden but rather a continuation of a longer trend, would be a first and crucial step towards a reordering of the global financial order. In the longer view, initial pain would be ameliorated by the prospect for a better future, not only for Japan, but the world as a whole. The trick would be to do so without major escalation in trade or military hostilities. If there's one country possessive of restraint and due diligence regarding financial outcomes, it would be Japan. The world hesitantly may wish them good luck.

With the highly-sensitive carry trade unwinding, again, markets appear to be taking a wait-and-see attitude this Friday morning. Asian and European markets showed little stress and little movement. U.S. stocks are poised for a slightly upside open, but FX traders are nervous that the situation could turn from bad to ugly without much warning. The usual tug-of-war in precious metals shows few signs of abatement. Every bid is met by a short-seller though recently there's been more commitment from the buyers to resist the price suppression at the COMEX. Eventually, the buyers will prevail. Supply-demand dynamics, especially with regard to silver, insist upon it.

At the Close, Thursday, Decemebr 18, 2025:
Dow: 47,951.85, +65.88 (+0.14%)
NASDAQ: 23,006.36, +313.04 (+1.38%)
S&P 500: 6,774.76, +53.33 (+0.79%)
NYSE Composite: 21,807.87, +51.85 (0.24%)

Dear Mr. President: Talk is Cheap, Especially When It's All Bombast and Mostly Untrue; Americans Are Screwed

Americans have been gaslit more than enough the past five years, but President Trump's 19-minute, prime time, speed-reading exercise Wednesday night was completely over the top. Not only was the president speaking at twice his usual speed, he also appeared to be shouting through most of the rushed address. There's a very good chance that the speech was taped (and possibly sped up to keep close to the networks' 15-minute time allotment), though nobody in the media or at the White House will ever admit to it, so used to lying as they all are.

Besides being incredibly difficult to watch, the president used his standard approach, blaming the Biden administration for just about everything, embellishing his accomplishments to the point of them being the greatest ever, and making outrageous claims that were easily debunked. Fact-checkers had a field day with this latest outburst of campaign-style rhetoric.

There was also nothing new in the president's remarks, other than a claim that American military service men and women will receive a $1,776 bonus. There was nothing in this speech that warranted a prime time address. It served only to make people even more skeptical of the current administration and its meandering, give-and-take policies. 19 Minutes that the American public will never get back - a complete waste of time. Most people thought the address would be concerned with the naval blockade of Venezuela or progress in negotiations over Ukraine. It's also possible that those topics were the original intent, but nothing substantive developed and the taped speech was inserted to satisfy the network requirements. Who knows, and further, at this point, paraphrasing Hillary Clinton, another in a long line of political prevaricators, "what difference does it make?"

Moving on to more relevant issues, on Thursday morning the BLS released November CPI data, adding an exclamation point to the president's Wednesday night declaration that inflation was going lower, "much lower":

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis over the 2 months from September 2025 to November 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations.

The seasonally adjusted index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent over the 2 months ending in November. From September to November, the index for shelter increased 0.2 percent. The energy index rose 1.1 percent over the same 2-month period and the food index increased 0.1 percent. Other indexes which increased over the 2 months ending in November include household furnishings and operations, communication, and personal care. In contrast, the indexes for lodging away from home, recreation, and apparel decreased over the same 2-month period.

The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending November, after rising 3.0 percent over the 12 months ending September. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending November. The food index increased 2.6 percent over the last year.

Because the BLS is well-known for its notoriously incorrect and normal downward revisions in jobs data and upward revisions in inflation data, there's reason to disbelieve these numbers in their entirety.

Checking the tables presented in the release in which almost all categories - other than gasoline, new vehicles, and used cars and trucks - are left blank for October and November, there's ample reason to suggest that the headline 2.7% inflation is the ultimate in government guesswork and most likely well off the actual mark.

As usual, in knee-jerk fashion, stock futures flew higher upon the release, as if the numbers - what few of them actually exist - are at all believable.

Honestly, with each passing day, the federal government doubles down on stupid, while expecting the plebeian population to just accept what they deliver as true and the best available. The clown show has gotten to a point at which nothing that comes out of official Washington D.C. can be believed. It's outrageous and disgusting, disturbing. Ordinary Americans are being reduced to tax donkeys and debt slaves. Everything coming out of D.C. and Wall Street is - besides being mostly lies - designed to benefit the top 10% and 1% of the greedy oligarch class.

Americans are royally screwed. They can only trust that the government always willfully lies to them. Keep your mouth shut and your head down. Buy gold, buy silver. Stay out of debt.

At the Close, Wednesday, December 17, 2025: Dow: 47,885.97, -228.29 (-0.47%) NASDAQ: 22,693.32, -418.14 (-1.81%) S&P 500: 6,721.43, -78.83 (-1.16%) NYSE Composite: 21,756.02, -86.06 (-0.39%)

If You're Long, You're Wrong; Trump Orders Blockade of Venezuela, Designates Maduro & Co. Terrorist Organization; Gold, Silver Ramping Higher

Today's distraction - and likely for the foreseeable future - will be the military blockade of Venezuela, as President Trump, "the peace president", has designated the Maduro regime a terrorist organization and that the Venezuelan leader and cohorts have stolen oil, land, and other assets from the United States.

Here's the actual TruthSocial post:

For people still capable of rubbing together a few brain cells, there are problems with this. First, designation of a terrorist organization is a function of the State department and is a pretty serious matter. State had designated Maduro's supposed "Cartel de los Soles" (completely made up) on November 24. Since Trump took office, his administration has designated two dozen organizations "terrorist." Better check here to see if you or your organization is one of them. Given time, and the need to fund its own criminal enterprise, this list is likely to grow because seizing assets from terrorist groups doesn't require much in the way of court orders, laws, etc. Eventually, groups such as "people who own gold or silver", "individuals whose last name starts with the letters D, E, F, G, or H", or maybe even "Registered Democrats" could be designated terrorists, their assets frozen, then stolen. That seems to be the general direction.

Second, if the president or somebody in his administration would kindly point out exactly what "oil, land, and other assets" the Maduro gang stole from the U.S., it would be greatly appreciated. Seems the oil comes from beneath Venezuelan soil, and as far as land is concerned, parts of Texas? Miami? New Orleans? The Gulf of Mexico America? It's confusing.

The United States has now officially transitioned to a very large, belligerent banana republic, with, of course, heavy tariffs on imported bananas. This is insanity.

Wall Street style distractions are subdued after Tuesday's slew of economic reports, but they'll find something to keep the public from noticing how weak stocks appear over the past couple of days.

Also this morning and overnight, the COMEX/ESF/LBMA Cartel (not an officially-designated terrorist organization) appears to have lost control of their gold and silver suppression mechanisms. Silver spiked as high as $66.55 overnight on the spot and is holding around $65.85, while spot gold is bid at $4,337.30, less than $20 short of its all-time high.

Now for today's commentary:

Back during the Biden years (2021-2024), "woke" was the new mantra for the hip generation that embraced tattoos, nose rings, LGBTQF+++ transgenderism, green everything, and he rest of the nonsense mainstream media was spilling out to Western populations on a daily basis.

Those who railed against what seemed to be odd, misplaced, and just plain weird saw what was happening and somebody - we're not sure who, but Donald Trump will certainly take credit for it - coined the phrase, "Go Woke, Go Broke," and even stranger things began to occur. The Green New Deal fell apart, trannies started becoming mass murderers, and people heavily adorned with tats and rings couldn't get jobs. The commonality of shared values and normal thinking began to make inroads against the "left", "the Great Reset" and all the globalist ambitions run wild.

Then somebody shot Charlie Kirk.

Whoever was behind that nefarious act should burn in hell Kirk was guilty of nothing more than exercising his right to free speech and allowing others to do so. As far as can be discerned, free speech is not a crime, yet.

Looking at the now-wrecked U.S., U.K., Canadian, Australian, and European (and maybe Japanese and South Korean) economies, there appears to be a common thread running through all of them. They are all fictitious. In the most general terms, Western economies produce little more than endless debt, pain, suffering, tragedy, and the occasional Elon Musk spacecraft.

Americans - speaking from experience - don't own much gold or silver, and that's a shame because in third world countries, emerging nations, and lots of places that Western intellectuals don't like (India, Russia, China) precious metals are making a very rapid, dramatic re-emergence as money. MONEY. You know, that thing that makes the world go 'round.

Hard assets are back, baby. You can tell just by spending a few mintues every day looking at the gold and silver spot price charts over at Kitko. There's an ongoing effort to keep these prices down, but they keep going up. Honestly, economics isn't and shouldn't be as difficult as the purveyors of wealth on Wall Street or the City of London make it out to be. It's pretty simple, actually. Hold what people value. The rest is speculation, vanity, or just plain old stupidity, and there's more than enough of that last commodity going around these days.

Some people continue to cling to the notion that everything is going to be digital, tokenized, fantasized, and otherwise, bastardized. Bitcoin people are the most notorious in this manner. Anthony Scaramucci and Michael Saylor are two prime examples. They're scam artists, telling people to follow them down the yellow brick road to bitcoin nirvana which doesn't even actually exist, nor does the yellow brick road. They are fantasists, con men of the first degree, pitching modern day snake oil to the greedy, unsuspecting public. Many have already been swindled. Many more will be, especially since the president himself has joined the crypto scam and enlisted his two sons, the Treasury Secretary, the commerce Secretary (not naming names here) and soon, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System, ostensibly to be named "Kevin." No, not Kevin Hart, though he'd probably be better than what's coming down the pike.

So, the choice is clear. People and institutions can continue to hold paper or more nebulous "assets" like stocks, treasuries, other debt instruments, crypto, GLD or SLV, or they can invest in the real things, like gold, silver, real estate, machinery, art, and collectibles.

Money Daily says, as of today, "If You're Long, You're Wrong."

At the Close, Tuesday, December 16, 2025:
Dow: 48,114.26, -302.30 (-0.62%)
NASDAQ: 23,111.46, +54.05 (+0.23%)
S&P 500: 6,800.26, -16.25 (-0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 21,842.08, -187.93 (-0.85%)

Government Claims 46,000 Job Gains in November; Unemployment Rate at 4.6%; Gold, Silver Continue Higher; Bitcoin Saying Buh-Bye?

The BLS announced this morning the Non-Farm Payroll data for November, delayed from its originally-planned release date of December 5th. The Bureau, always consistently off by 20,000 or more, said that 46,000 jobs were created during the month, but also, in their press release, mentioned that while October non-farm payroll data was, um, out there somewhere, they were certain of a decline of 162,000 government jobs in October, as some federal employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer came off federal payrolls.

Because of the government shutdown from October 1 through November 12, the BLS claims to not have October data, but, by the same excuse, can account fully for November, a questionable claim. Considering the overall record of BLS reporting, these numbers can hardly be trusted. Suffice it to say that general employment in the United States is declining, though by how much is still uncertain.

While the BLS makes comparisons to September data, they do admit that the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 22,000, from -4,000 to -26,000, and the change for September was revised down by 11,000, from +119,000 to +108,000. This is also somewhat confusing, as the country loses jobs in August and gains over 100,000 in September. Probably the best explanation is teachers going back to work in September.

As far as Wall Street is concerned, a weak or weakening labor market is probably good for some stocks, particularly those who laid off or fired employees as those heavy costs are no longer a burden to profits. That might be good short term, but many times, when businesses shed employees it's not because they were unnecessary or not pulling their weight, but because business was slowing. In the meantime, eagerly awaited is third quarter GDP is still inestimable, until the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) gets its act together. That agency issued the following:

SUITLAND, Md. – The following updates to BEA’s post-shutdown economic release schedule are currently available:

Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Updated Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised) will be released on Jan. 22, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. This report will be the equivalent of a third estimate of quarterly GDP, replacing Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised), originally scheduled for release on Dec. 19.

BEA will release two estimates of third-quarter GDP, instead of the usual three estimates over three months:

The advance estimate of third-quarter GDP, originally scheduled during October, was canceled.

Dec. 23: Initial estimate of third-quarter GDP, including the preliminary estimate of corporate profits (replaces the typical advance and second estimates).

Jan. 22: Updated estimate (replaces the typical third estimate).

GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025 will be rescheduled. These data were originally scheduled for release on Jan. 29, 2026. Sufficient source data will not be available in time for the original release date.

Gross Domestic Product by State and Personal Income by State, 3rd Quarter 2025 will be released on Jan. 23, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. These data were originally scheduled for release on Dec. 22.

BEA’s economic release schedules for 2025 and early 2026 will continue to be updated as information becomes available.

OK, so, instead of the usual delay of nearly a month after the end of the quarter, the first glimpse offered will be on December 23. The third quarter ended September 30, prior to the shutdown, so the numbers should all be there. Since it's government work, as usual, it takes and extra two months to get all the numbers lined up correctly. This is another report that probably will be off by orders of magnitude. Treasury Secretary Bessent assures everybody that it's going to be close to three percent.

Those analysts making predictions for 2026 are going to have to trust at least some of the government's releases. For sure, most of them will see the S&P gaining about 20% over the course of the year, since that's the easiest of predictions and won't ruffle too many feathers.

As the government flips and flops around, the regularly-scheduled body slams to the price of gold and silver continue, for whatever reasons. Just before the opening bell for stocks, silver was priced at $63.60 and gold at $4,324.70, which is just about $30 short of gold's all-time high. Both precious metals were pushed lower overnight, but have bounced right back. There seems to be considerable pushback against the short-sellers on the COMEX, likely by Asian interests who have had just about enough of physical commodities being priced by derivatives.

In any case, the suppression of gold and silver seems to be not working as well as previously. Both metals are at or near all-time highs. The best the riggers at the COMEX, LBMA, and ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund) can hope for is to delay the inevitable rise of precious metals or at least slow it down. The whole operation seems rather pointless and has probably become quite expensive. It wouldn't be a surprise to see a bank or two take on heavy losses and maybe even go belly up.

Not to worry, the Fed is buying up treasury bills at $40 billion a month, so they surely have enough fiat to bail out whatever losses the bullion banks may be incurring.

With the stock markets in the U.S. already underway for Tuesday, the major indices are flat-lining. Perhaps the most amusing development is in the crypto universe, where most of the popular coins are suffering continued losses. Bitcoin is the primary sufferer, hitting lows in the mid-$85,000 range overnight. Solidly in a bear market, the near-to-mid-term resting place for bitcoin figures to be around $35,000, give or take $10,000.

That is just how bitcoin rolls (over).

At the Close, Monday, December 15, 2025:
Dow: 48,416.56, -41.49 (-0.09%)
NASDAQ: 23,057.41, -137.76 (-0.59%)
S&P 500: 6,816.51, -10.90 (-0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 22,030.02, +25.67 (+0.12%)