End of Empire Economics: Tariffs, Piracy, Tech, Power Grid Generation, AI, Refund Checks, GDP, Debt, and Borrowing; Silver Soars to Record High; 3Q GDP Arrives Tuesday

Sick of it all yet?

As the empire of lies sinks slowly into the morass of unchecked criminality, lost economic data, doctored files, and still, NOT A SINGLE PROSECUTION OF ANY ELECTED OFFICIAL IN WASHINGTON D.C., Americans are quietly separating themselves from all association with government, banking, and for some, reality itself.

It has become, especially over the past five years, increasingly difficult for sane people to live ordinary lives in the United States. In some European countries, it's even worse. People are jailed for criticizing government policies, Islam, Ukraine, transgenderism or anything else the modern-day fascists in the UK, France, and especially Germany can deem hate speech or simply disallowed speech.

Next, thought crimes.

Gold and silver continue to send a message that few are capable of deciphering. The money, the almighty dollar, trillions conjured out of thin air, is failing. Grocery shopping alone will verify that fact. In the meantime, the president boasts, congress rots from within, and the institutions that were once revered by the public - Treasury, the Federal Reserve, State Department, and others - are reviled as mere facades, dishonest representations in denial of America's decline.

This week the financial markets gleefully welcomed CPI results from October and November that showed inflation ebbing, even though there was no actual data presented for those two months. Inflation, according to the most on-their-face bogus reports ever from the BLS - which is saying a lot coming from those serially-incorrect number crunchers - fell on an annual basis from 3.0% to 2.7%. While that may be all fine and dandy, real world experience reads differently.

The government and media don't want Americans to read or see or hear about record numbers of small business bankruptcies, rapidly increasing credit card and auto loan delinquencies and defaults, evictions, student loan defaults, and the breakdown of the consumer economy. No, they want your focus to be on tariffs, or Russia, or China, the sworn enemies of the deep state which should be yours as well.

“War is when the government tells us who the enemy is. Revolution is when we figure it out for ourselves.” — Benjamin Franklin

Here are just a few nuggets:

U.S. households collectively carry about $18.6 trillion in total debt, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

About 19.17 percent of the people in Minnesota had credit card accounts that were delinquent in the second quarter. That's nearly one in five.

Ameicans are still awaiting third quarter GDP results, now that the fourth quarter is nearly over. The first look arrives Tuesday, if one is to believe the BEA:

BEA will release two estimates of third-quarter GDP, instead of the usual three estimates over three months:

The advance estimate of third-quarter GDP, originally scheduled during October, was canceled.

Dec. 23: Initial estimate of third-quarter GDP, including the preliminary estimate of corporate profits (replaces the typical advance and second estimates).

Jan. 22: Updated estimate (replaces the typical third estimate).

GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025 will be rescheduled. These data were originally scheduled for release on Jan. 29, 2026. Sufficient source data will not be available in time for the original release date.

Gross Domestic Product by State and Personal Income by State, 3rd Quarter 2025 will be released on Jan. 23, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. These data were originally scheduled for release on Dec. 22.

If 3rd quarter GDP isn't at least three percent (3.0%), look out below, but there's reason to believe it will come in very close to that figure, because the preferred narrative requires growth, whether there is or isn't any. With the first quarter of 2025 at -0.6, and the second quarter boasting growth of 3.8%, even if Q3 and Q4 come in at 3.0% each, that still only gets full year GDP to 2.3%, which is pretty dull, though it does provide a great jumping off point for 2026 and the president's goal of keeping the House and Senate in the midterms. Barring shutdowns or disruptions, the economic releases for 1Q, 2Q, and the initial estimate for 3Q 2026 will be out prior to the November elections.

Bankruptcies are up across-the-board in the U.S.:

According to data through November from Epiq Bankruptcy Analytics, 2,221 companies had sought temporary protection from creditors or had simply ceased operations under Subchapter V rules. Those measures were created in 2019 to make it easier for small businesses to declare bankruptcy. That 11-month total for 2025 was 8 percent higher than the number of the same filings for all of 2024.

More broadly, bankruptcies filed by U.S. companies of all sizes increased by nearly 6 percent during the 12 months that ended September 30, according to the quarterly report by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. When non-business filings were added, the tally reached 557,376, or 10.6 percent more than the year before — the highest volume since 2020.

The government's tariff revenues in November ticked down for the first time since President Trump began implementing his historic duties, according to new totals from the US Treasury Department.

The agency's monthly statement for November, released on Wednesday, saw a reading of $30.76 billion in customs duties collected, following an October reading of $31.35 billion.

In a recent address, President Trump claimed to be using tariff revenues to send members of the military a check for $1,776, a "warrior dividend", when actually, the money was already appropriated by congress in the form of military housing subsidies. The president just spent more money the government doesn't have.

Not to sound all gloom and doom, prices will come down, because hyperinflation is normally followed by a general economic depression.

In the meantime, the U.S. military is busy rounding up sanctioned oil tankers near Venezuela. On Saturday, a second tanker was seized by the U.S. Coast Guard, while the first one, known as "the Skipper" (and Gilligan, too?) is headed to Galveston, ostensibly, its oil to be offloaded and sent to U.S. refineries. This is great for drivers, who want to see prices at the pump drop even further. Using stolen oil - which, according to the president's very own pretzel logic, was stolen from the United States even though it came from beneath Venezuelan soil - helps Make America Great Again (MAGA).

Theft and high seas piracy have made a big comeback at the end of 2025, a trend which is likely to continue in 2026. One wonders why anybody would have to steal oil, though, being there's a huge glut on world markets. Americans are told that fishing boats are blown to smithereens, but oil tankers are seized, because, besides making a huge mess in the ocean, that oil was going to be used to support "narco-terrorism", whatever that is. Besides, Venezuela's president Maduro is a bad guy, so is Putin, but Xi Jinping, well, he's just "tough."

Treasury Secretary Bessent was out boasting about how Americans would be getting large tax refunds in 2026, thanks to Trump's economic policies. While that certainly should be the case, taxpayers need to be reminded that their refunds are money they unwittingly loaned to the government interest-free, which is a better deal than the Treasury Department gets from the Federal Reserve, foreigners, primary dealers and private sources, which buys government debt at about four percent.

Lately, all the talk has been about AI, data centers, enhanced power generation and grid expansion. Gas generators are filling the void until utilities can ramp up to meet increasing data center needs. Expanding and updating the U.S. electric grid is long overdue. Who knew all it took was big tech to discover they needed more power to get it done. This is an area of positive development.

On the backend of this massive AI/tech/power buildout there remains plenty of doubt about eventual return of capital. Big tech is shelling out hundreds of billions to facilitate their AI dreams, though nobody has yet made any realistic case for revenue even coming close to costs.

With congress in recess until around January 6, there was no resolution on expiring health care subsidies, which were supposedly the whole point of shutting down the government from the first of October to mid-November. If healthcare still isn't resolved to Democrat party satisfaction, why is there no screaming and yelling in congress? That seems to make the point all by itself. The government shutdown was planned by both parties specifically to hide horrific economic conditions from the American public, and they've succeeded, with another shutdown possible at the end of January, when the money they approved in November runs out. They'll need another continuing resolution to avoid a shutdown and another round of lost or misplaced economic data, which seems to be the whole point.

At the end of the day, the government still cannot control spending. The federal deficit will come in close to $2 trillion this year, despite claims that tariff revenue will cut into that gaping hole. Revenue from tariffs will amount to roughly $300-400 billion, a drop in the bucket of the $7 trillion in government spending. Further, if individual income taxes are down, all the tariffs accomplish is moving money from one source to another. The government gets tariffs, the people pay more for goods and services, but get a tax break. At best, it's a wash.

With U.S. government debt growing at a rate of about $3 million a minute ($180 million an hour, $4.3 billion a day), the federal debt should reach $40 trillion right around the 2026 midterm elections. Will any of the candidates for Senate or House seats make it an issue? Unlikely, since they're all partly to blame for it, passing spending resolutions uncovered by revenue, continuing to borrow like spendthrift sailors on shore leave.

Eventually, all that debt is supposed to be paid back, but it never will be. At some point, people notice, other countries notice, and the U.S. can't just go on bullying and borrowing. In the distance, a piper is playing and when he arrives, he will want to be paid.

Stocks

Stocks had a ho-hum week thanks to completely bogus numbers from the BLS, which cited inflation (CPI) falling from 3.0% to 2.7% on an annualized basis. The bean conters who failed to provide data for October and November somehow managed to conjure up a number that would be palatable to the government and Wall Street, which lapped it up like kittens on buttermilk. Stocks were down significantly through Wednesday, but perked right up on giddy anti-infaltion talk.

Still, gains for the week were negligible on the NASDAQ and S&P with the Composite and Dow lower. Thus far in December stocks haven't had much to cheer about, with the Dow the only major to the upside, about 418 points, the NASDAQ down 60 and the S&P off 22. There are seven trading days left in the year. For all you Grinches and Scrooges, Christmas is Thursday and the market is closed. Stocks will trade only until 1:00 pm ET on Wednesday, December 24 (Christmas Eve).

The Dow Jones Transportation Average continued to flirt with its all-time high (17,754.38, November 25, 2024), closing at 17620.19 on December 11 and since has pulled back, closing at 17557.96 on Friday. This keeps the three or four extant Dow Theorists remaining in the camp that believes the rally on the Industrials is simply fairy dust and not indicative of a primary trend, which remains bearish since the Transports have not confirmed the change in primary trend. The transports are notably well above their 50-day moving average while the others are nestled just above theirs.

While they may be technically right, they've managed to miss out on about 4,000 points on the industrials since the end of November, 2024, which was when the Transports peaked and retreated. Should the Trannies tack on another 200 or so points and hold them, there might be reason to believe that stocks will be off to the races in 2026. The highly anticipated "Santa Rally" which usually occurs the last two weeks of the year may be highly dependent on how well the BEA can fake 3rd quarter GDP on Tuesday.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
11/14/2025	4.04	4.02	4.01	3.95	3.88	3.80	3.70
11/21/2025	4.03	4.01	4.00	3.90	3.84	3.75	3.62
11/28/2025	4.05	3.97	3.99	3.88	3.86	3.74	3.61
12/05/2025	3.82	3.78	3.77	3.71	3.73	3.68	3.61
12/12/2025	3.76	3.75	3.75	3.63	3.64	3.58	3.54
12/19/2025	3.71	3.71	3.72	3.62	3.64	3.60	3.51

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
11/14/2025	3.62	3.61	3.74	3.92	4.14	4.73	4.74
11/21/2025	3.51	3.50	3.62	3.82	4.06	4.67	4.71
11/28/2025	3.47	3.49	3.59	3.78	4.02	4.62	4.67
12/05/2025	3.56	3.59	3.72	3.90	4.14	4.75	4.79
12/12/2025	3.52	3.58	3.75	3.95	4.19	4.82	4.85
12/19/2025	3.48	3.53	3.70	3.91	4.16	4.77	4.82

Yields were static for the week, with the only discernible movement in notes, lower by three to five basis points on the week between 2-year and 10-year maturities.

With no commitment by the Fed to do anything in January in terms of cutting rates, the entire yield curve still suffers from inversion, as 1-month and 5-year yields are essentially the same. Spreads widened slightly, with full spectrum at +111 and 2s-10s at +68, both long-term highs, making loan origination more art than science and completely selective, requiring diligence and high credit-worthiness.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58
12/12: +67
12/19: +68

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97
12/12: +109
12/19: +111

Oil/Gas

WTI crude closed out the week at $56.54, down almost a buck from last week's $57.53, but not before cratering to $54.97 on Tuesday. Oil continues to resist buying in on the economic expansion narrative. There's oversupply everywhere, indicative of slowing economies.

The U.S. national average for gas at the pump fell to $2.82, the lowest price in roughly five years and another seven cents lower than the prior week, according to Gasbuddy.com. Given the current climate, gas prices should continue to decline over the near term.

California remains the highest in the lower 48 states, at $4.27 per gallon, down 8 cents on the week and 39 cents over the past five weeks, followed by Washington ($3.92), leaving the Golden State alone in the $4+ club for the first time in two years. Oregon ($3.48), was down 10 cents. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma holding steady at $2.24, up just one cent from last week's multi-year low. Arkansas ($2.35) and Colorado ($2.37) were nearby. Louisiana ($2.40), Mississippi ($2.42) and Texas ($2.43) follow, each marginally lower. The remaining Southeast states are all below $2.71 with the exception of Florida ($2.86).

In the Northeast, prices remain slightly elevated, though joining a general decline. Only Pennsylvania ($3.10), Vermont ($3.07) and New York ($3.05) are above $3.00.

In the midwest region, where the price relief has been significant, Illinois ($2.90) finally dropped below $3.00. At the low end were Colorado ($2.37), Iowa ($2.44), and Wyoming ($2.45).

Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in fully 40 states, a gain of four from last week and up 14 over the past two weeks. Not including Alaska and Hawaii, there are just eight states with gas prices above $3.00 and just one, California, over $4.00.

Bitcoin

This week: $88,044.85
Last week: $89,338.22
2 weeks ago: $90,860.37
6 months ago: $102,394.40
One year ago: $96,193.61
Five years ago: $26,449.16

Bitcoin remains in a range below $90,000. Every time it appears to be on the move to the upside, it pulls back. That's probably because of its cyclical nature and declining utility as a liquidity provider, heading to $30,000 or lower.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 64.54; last week: 69.30

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 11/21: $4,099.20
Gold price 11/28: $4,256.40
Gold price 12/5: $4,227.70
Gold price 12/12: $4,329.80
Gold price 12/19: $4,368.70

Silver price 11/21: $50.33
Silver price 11/28: $57.08
Silver price 12/5: $58.80
Silver price 12/12: $62.08
Silver price 12/19: $67.39

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 11/21: $4,063.98
Gold 11/28: $4,216.71
Gold 12/5: $4,196.63
Gold 12/12: $4,297.29
Gold 12/19: $4,337.83

Silver 11/21: $49.97
Silver 11/28: $56.37
Silver 12/5: $58.28
Silver 12/12: $62.01
Silver 12/19: $67.21

If you thought last week was good for silver, this week was simply awesome, with the spot price rising from $62.01 to $67.21, Friday close to Friday close. Gold has gained the past three weeks and appears ready to strike out above $4,355, the all-time high. Consolidation appears to be complete. If gold gains over the next two weeks, silver is likely to close out the year at $70 or higher, a price target the brokerages have labeled for 2026. They're completely anti-gold and anti-silver as policy, so many of their analysts are likely to be biting their lips, having missed out on mammoth profits.

The gold:silver ratio continues to descend. When it hits 50, fiat money will begin to disintegrate more rapidly. By the time it gets back to historic levels of 20: or 15:1 or 10:1, fiat currencies will be absolutely worthless, sending the world into an economic depression. Give it a few more years, or months, or maybe weeks. None other than Mike Maloney recently opined that he expects the gold:silver ratio to fall to a low of 20:1, or even 10:1, which would accelerate silver's price seven-fold over gold's advances.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	65.00	79.99	72.99	72.00
1 oz silver bar:	67.99	81.75	74.75	75.00
1 oz gold coin:	4,479.50	4,659.50	4,548.73	4,532.99
1 oz gold bar:	4,350.00	4,599.50	4,526.63	4,530.01

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) delivered, for the fourth straight week, what can only be described as a monumental gain, the first time marking over $70, to $73.69, up an incredible $5.54 from the December 14 price of $68.15 per troy ounce. The small-denomination, physical market continues to add high premia over spot and derivative market pricing, making a mockery of the COMEX price-rigging.

WEEKEND WRAP

For anybody not paying attention, silver, while not quite currency, might as well be, as it is at price levels to be regarded as money and not simply an industrial metal. One-ounce silver coins like Eagles, Maples, Kookaburras, Libertads, and Pandas will just about cover a week's groceries today. Two years ago, those same coins were selling for $25 at dealers worldwide. Today, an ounce of silver gets you more than 20 gallons of gas, which is amazing and alarming at the same time, because back in 1963, five silver quarters would only buy about five gallons, and gas was supposedly cheap then.

So, is silver in a bubble or is the entire economy upside-down? We’ll take the latter on that one.

The floating fiat currency era is coming to an end. The price suppressors no longer work as the world has discovered the scam after more than 50 years.

It's about time.

Merry Christmas, stackers.

At the Close, Friday, December 19, 2025:
Dow: 48,134.89, +183.04 (+0.38%)
NASDAQ: 23,307.62, +301.26 (+1.31%)
S&P 500: 6,834.50, +59.74 (+0.88%)
NYSE Composite: 21,923.93, +116.06 (+0.53%)

For the Week:
Dow: -323.16 (-0.67%)
NASDAQ: +112.45 (+0.48%)
S&P 500: +7.09 (+0.10%)
NYSE Composite: -80.42 (-0.37%)
Dow Transports: +53.39 (+0.31%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Japan Hikes Interest Rates 0.25%; Carry Trade Unwinding, again; Japan to Decide the Direction of Global Finance; Upside Pressure on Gold and Silver Continues

Once again, the end of a week has come, this one relatively painless though a bit bumpy. U.S. stocks generally took the low road. As of Thursday's closing bell, the Dow was down 506 points, NASDAQ slipped 188 points, and the S&P 500 dropped 52.

Last week's big winner, the Dow Jones Transportation Average, was flattish, though u 12 points on the week, close to its all-time high, flashing bullish signals at Dow Theorists. The Trannies never confirmed the primary bull trend of the Dow. Maybe it doesn't need to do so, given old school dynamics have been supplanted by AI and other market indicators, some of which work, others that give incomplete views, even more that suffer from irrational reasoning.

In any case, the bull marches onward, despite a scare from the Bank of Japan and the demise of the "carry trade", in which the venerable institution raised interest rates 0.25%. Japan finds itself at a crossroads, with the general economy and the currency itself in the crosshairs, needing to save one or the other, but not both. If recent history is any kind of guide, it suggests the authorities in Japan will do little to salvage its currency, the yen, which is down sharply against the U.S. dollar the past three days and especially overnight, the USD:JPY pair rising from 155.59 to 157.29 in the past 12 hours.

A devalued yen carries certain obvious trade advantages while at the same time causing domestic inflation, something which Japan has yearned for since the demise of its economy back in the 1980s, and which it is now about to get, in spades. Rising costs of imports upon which Japan is heavily dependent, may lead to domestic grumbling and dissatisfaction, very un-Japan-like, given how gracious, reserved, and polite Japanese people usually are. Considering the alternative - a deep recession or devastating depression - the Japanese people and their leaders would probably opt to throw off the yoke of Western imperialism which has bound them since the end of World War II.

Japan, which has long been the outright leader in sophisticated Keynesian experimentation and fine-tuning, may find the path of least resistance in wholesale devaluation without guardrails, a condition that might lead to more severe problems for their trading partners. An escape hatch from 80 years of U.S. neocolonialism is opening wide enough for Japan's financial authorities to walk right through into a new economic order, one predicated on hard assets rather then tired, worn-out promises from the West. Japan sees development all around it and may be willing to depart from long-standing alliances that has turned the country into little more than a U.S. vassal state.

A yen collapse would reverberate wildly throughout the global economy. It's not something anybody should fear nor not see coming. The demise of the weakest of the fiat currencies has been telegraphed for decades. The break, which is likely to be not sudden but rather a continuation of a longer trend, would be a first and crucial step towards a reordering of the global financial order. In the longer view, initial pain would be ameliorated by the prospect for a better future, not only for Japan, but the world as a whole. The trick would be to do so without major escalation in trade or military hostilities. If there's one country possessive of restraint and due diligence regarding financial outcomes, it would be Japan. The world hesitantly may wish them good luck.

With the highly-sensitive carry trade unwinding, again, markets appear to be taking a wait-and-see attitude this Friday morning. Asian and European markets showed little stress and little movement. U.S. stocks are poised for a slightly upside open, but FX traders are nervous that the situation could turn from bad to ugly without much warning. The usual tug-of-war in precious metals shows few signs of abatement. Every bid is met by a short-seller though recently there's been more commitment from the buyers to resist the price suppression at the COMEX. Eventually, the buyers will prevail. Supply-demand dynamics, especially with regard to silver, insist upon it.

At the Close, Thursday, Decemebr 18, 2025:
Dow: 47,951.85, +65.88 (+0.14%)
NASDAQ: 23,006.36, +313.04 (+1.38%)
S&P 500: 6,774.76, +53.33 (+0.79%)
NYSE Composite: 21,807.87, +51.85 (0.24%)

Dear Mr. President: Talk is Cheap, Especially When It's All Bombast and Mostly Untrue; Americans Are Screwed

Americans have been gaslit more than enough the past five years, but President Trump's 19-minute, prime time, speed-reading exercise Wednesday night was completely over the top. Not only was the president speaking at twice his usual speed, he also appeared to be shouting through most of the rushed address. There's a very good chance that the speech was taped (and possibly sped up to keep close to the networks' 15-minute time allotment), though nobody in the media or at the White House will ever admit to it, so used to lying as they all are.

Besides being incredibly difficult to watch, the president used his standard approach, blaming the Biden administration for just about everything, embellishing his accomplishments to the point of them being the greatest ever, and making outrageous claims that were easily debunked. Fact-checkers had a field day with this latest outburst of campaign-style rhetoric.

There was also nothing new in the president's remarks, other than a claim that American military service men and women will receive a $1,776 bonus. There was nothing in this speech that warranted a prime time address. It served only to make people even more skeptical of the current administration and its meandering, give-and-take policies. 19 Minutes that the American public will never get back - a complete waste of time. Most people thought the address would be concerned with the naval blockade of Venezuela or progress in negotiations over Ukraine. It's also possible that those topics were the original intent, but nothing substantive developed and the taped speech was inserted to satisfy the network requirements. Who knows, and further, at this point, paraphrasing Hillary Clinton, another in a long line of political prevaricators, "what difference does it make?"

Moving on to more relevant issues, on Thursday morning the BLS released November CPI data, adding an exclamation point to the president's Wednesday night declaration that inflation was going lower, "much lower":

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis over the 2 months from September 2025 to November 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations.

The seasonally adjusted index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent over the 2 months ending in November. From September to November, the index for shelter increased 0.2 percent. The energy index rose 1.1 percent over the same 2-month period and the food index increased 0.1 percent. Other indexes which increased over the 2 months ending in November include household furnishings and operations, communication, and personal care. In contrast, the indexes for lodging away from home, recreation, and apparel decreased over the same 2-month period.

The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending November, after rising 3.0 percent over the 12 months ending September. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending November. The food index increased 2.6 percent over the last year.

Because the BLS is well-known for its notoriously incorrect and normal downward revisions in jobs data and upward revisions in inflation data, there's reason to disbelieve these numbers in their entirety.

Checking the tables presented in the release in which almost all categories - other than gasoline, new vehicles, and used cars and trucks - are left blank for October and November, there's ample reason to suggest that the headline 2.7% inflation is the ultimate in government guesswork and most likely well off the actual mark.

As usual, in knee-jerk fashion, stock futures flew higher upon the release, as if the numbers - what few of them actually exist - are at all believable.

Honestly, with each passing day, the federal government doubles down on stupid, while expecting the plebeian population to just accept what they deliver as true and the best available. The clown show has gotten to a point at which nothing that comes out of official Washington D.C. can be believed. It's outrageous and disgusting, disturbing. Ordinary Americans are being reduced to tax donkeys and debt slaves. Everything coming out of D.C. and Wall Street is - besides being mostly lies - designed to benefit the top 10% and 1% of the greedy oligarch class.

Americans are royally screwed. They can only trust that the government always willfully lies to them. Keep your mouth shut and your head down. Buy gold, buy silver. Stay out of debt.

At the Close, Wednesday, December 17, 2025: Dow: 47,885.97, -228.29 (-0.47%) NASDAQ: 22,693.32, -418.14 (-1.81%) S&P 500: 6,721.43, -78.83 (-1.16%) NYSE Composite: 21,756.02, -86.06 (-0.39%)

If You're Long, You're Wrong; Trump Orders Blockade of Venezuela, Designates Maduro & Co. Terrorist Organization; Gold, Silver Ramping Higher

Today's distraction - and likely for the foreseeable future - will be the military blockade of Venezuela, as President Trump, "the peace president", has designated the Maduro regime a terrorist organization and that the Venezuelan leader and cohorts have stolen oil, land, and other assets from the United States.

Here's the actual TruthSocial post:

For people still capable of rubbing together a few brain cells, there are problems with this. First, designation of a terrorist organization is a function of the State department and is a pretty serious matter. State had designated Maduro's supposed "Cartel de los Soles" (completely made up) on November 24. Since Trump took office, his administration has designated two dozen organizations "terrorist." Better check here to see if you or your organization is one of them. Given time, and the need to fund its own criminal enterprise, this list is likely to grow because seizing assets from terrorist groups doesn't require much in the way of court orders, laws, etc. Eventually, groups such as "people who own gold or silver", "individuals whose last name starts with the letters D, E, F, G, or H", or maybe even "Registered Democrats" could be designated terrorists, their assets frozen, then stolen. That seems to be the general direction.

Second, if the president or somebody in his administration would kindly point out exactly what "oil, land, and other assets" the Maduro gang stole from the U.S., it would be greatly appreciated. Seems the oil comes from beneath Venezuelan soil, and as far as land is concerned, parts of Texas? Miami? New Orleans? The Gulf of Mexico America? It's confusing.

The United States has now officially transitioned to a very large, belligerent banana republic, with, of course, heavy tariffs on imported bananas. This is insanity.

Wall Street style distractions are subdued after Tuesday's slew of economic reports, but they'll find something to keep the public from noticing how weak stocks appear over the past couple of days.

Also this morning and overnight, the COMEX/ESF/LBMA Cartel (not an officially-designated terrorist organization) appears to have lost control of their gold and silver suppression mechanisms. Silver spiked as high as $66.55 overnight on the spot and is holding around $65.85, while spot gold is bid at $4,337.30, less than $20 short of its all-time high.

Now for today's commentary:

Back during the Biden years (2021-2024), "woke" was the new mantra for the hip generation that embraced tattoos, nose rings, LGBTQF+++ transgenderism, green everything, and he rest of the nonsense mainstream media was spilling out to Western populations on a daily basis.

Those who railed against what seemed to be odd, misplaced, and just plain weird saw what was happening and somebody - we're not sure who, but Donald Trump will certainly take credit for it - coined the phrase, "Go Woke, Go Broke," and even stranger things began to occur. The Green New Deal fell apart, trannies started becoming mass murderers, and people heavily adorned with tats and rings couldn't get jobs. The commonality of shared values and normal thinking began to make inroads against the "left", "the Great Reset" and all the globalist ambitions run wild.

Then somebody shot Charlie Kirk.

Whoever was behind that nefarious act should burn in hell Kirk was guilty of nothing more than exercising his right to free speech and allowing others to do so. As far as can be discerned, free speech is not a crime, yet.

Looking at the now-wrecked U.S., U.K., Canadian, Australian, and European (and maybe Japanese and South Korean) economies, there appears to be a common thread running through all of them. They are all fictitious. In the most general terms, Western economies produce little more than endless debt, pain, suffering, tragedy, and the occasional Elon Musk spacecraft.

Americans - speaking from experience - don't own much gold or silver, and that's a shame because in third world countries, emerging nations, and lots of places that Western intellectuals don't like (India, Russia, China) precious metals are making a very rapid, dramatic re-emergence as money. MONEY. You know, that thing that makes the world go 'round.

Hard assets are back, baby. You can tell just by spending a few mintues every day looking at the gold and silver spot price charts over at Kitko. There's an ongoing effort to keep these prices down, but they keep going up. Honestly, economics isn't and shouldn't be as difficult as the purveyors of wealth on Wall Street or the City of London make it out to be. It's pretty simple, actually. Hold what people value. The rest is speculation, vanity, or just plain old stupidity, and there's more than enough of that last commodity going around these days.

Some people continue to cling to the notion that everything is going to be digital, tokenized, fantasized, and otherwise, bastardized. Bitcoin people are the most notorious in this manner. Anthony Scaramucci and Michael Saylor are two prime examples. They're scam artists, telling people to follow them down the yellow brick road to bitcoin nirvana which doesn't even actually exist, nor does the yellow brick road. They are fantasists, con men of the first degree, pitching modern day snake oil to the greedy, unsuspecting public. Many have already been swindled. Many more will be, especially since the president himself has joined the crypto scam and enlisted his two sons, the Treasury Secretary, the commerce Secretary (not naming names here) and soon, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System, ostensibly to be named "Kevin." No, not Kevin Hart, though he'd probably be better than what's coming down the pike.

So, the choice is clear. People and institutions can continue to hold paper or more nebulous "assets" like stocks, treasuries, other debt instruments, crypto, GLD or SLV, or they can invest in the real things, like gold, silver, real estate, machinery, art, and collectibles.

Money Daily says, as of today, "If You're Long, You're Wrong."

At the Close, Tuesday, December 16, 2025:
Dow: 48,114.26, -302.30 (-0.62%)
NASDAQ: 23,111.46, +54.05 (+0.23%)
S&P 500: 6,800.26, -16.25 (-0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 21,842.08, -187.93 (-0.85%)

Government Claims 46,000 Job Gains in November; Unemployment Rate at 4.6%; Gold, Silver Continue Higher; Bitcoin Saying Buh-Bye?

The BLS announced this morning the Non-Farm Payroll data for November, delayed from its originally-planned release date of December 5th. The Bureau, always consistently off by 20,000 or more, said that 46,000 jobs were created during the month, but also, in their press release, mentioned that while October non-farm payroll data was, um, out there somewhere, they were certain of a decline of 162,000 government jobs in October, as some federal employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer came off federal payrolls.

Because of the government shutdown from October 1 through November 12, the BLS claims to not have October data, but, by the same excuse, can account fully for November, a questionable claim. Considering the overall record of BLS reporting, these numbers can hardly be trusted. Suffice it to say that general employment in the United States is declining, though by how much is still uncertain.

While the BLS makes comparisons to September data, they do admit that the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 22,000, from -4,000 to -26,000, and the change for September was revised down by 11,000, from +119,000 to +108,000. This is also somewhat confusing, as the country loses jobs in August and gains over 100,000 in September. Probably the best explanation is teachers going back to work in September.

As far as Wall Street is concerned, a weak or weakening labor market is probably good for some stocks, particularly those who laid off or fired employees as those heavy costs are no longer a burden to profits. That might be good short term, but many times, when businesses shed employees it's not because they were unnecessary or not pulling their weight, but because business was slowing. In the meantime, eagerly awaited is third quarter GDP is still inestimable, until the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) gets its act together. That agency issued the following:

SUITLAND, Md. – The following updates to BEA’s post-shutdown economic release schedule are currently available:

Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Updated Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised) will be released on Jan. 22, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. This report will be the equivalent of a third estimate of quarterly GDP, replacing Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised), originally scheduled for release on Dec. 19.

BEA will release two estimates of third-quarter GDP, instead of the usual three estimates over three months:

The advance estimate of third-quarter GDP, originally scheduled during October, was canceled.

Dec. 23: Initial estimate of third-quarter GDP, including the preliminary estimate of corporate profits (replaces the typical advance and second estimates).

Jan. 22: Updated estimate (replaces the typical third estimate).

GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025 will be rescheduled. These data were originally scheduled for release on Jan. 29, 2026. Sufficient source data will not be available in time for the original release date.

Gross Domestic Product by State and Personal Income by State, 3rd Quarter 2025 will be released on Jan. 23, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. These data were originally scheduled for release on Dec. 22.

BEA’s economic release schedules for 2025 and early 2026 will continue to be updated as information becomes available.

OK, so, instead of the usual delay of nearly a month after the end of the quarter, the first glimpse offered will be on December 23. The third quarter ended September 30, prior to the shutdown, so the numbers should all be there. Since it's government work, as usual, it takes and extra two months to get all the numbers lined up correctly. This is another report that probably will be off by orders of magnitude. Treasury Secretary Bessent assures everybody that it's going to be close to three percent.

Those analysts making predictions for 2026 are going to have to trust at least some of the government's releases. For sure, most of them will see the S&P gaining about 20% over the course of the year, since that's the easiest of predictions and won't ruffle too many feathers.

As the government flips and flops around, the regularly-scheduled body slams to the price of gold and silver continue, for whatever reasons. Just before the opening bell for stocks, silver was priced at $63.60 and gold at $4,324.70, which is just about $30 short of gold's all-time high. Both precious metals were pushed lower overnight, but have bounced right back. There seems to be considerable pushback against the short-sellers on the COMEX, likely by Asian interests who have had just about enough of physical commodities being priced by derivatives.

In any case, the suppression of gold and silver seems to be not working as well as previously. Both metals are at or near all-time highs. The best the riggers at the COMEX, LBMA, and ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund) can hope for is to delay the inevitable rise of precious metals or at least slow it down. The whole operation seems rather pointless and has probably become quite expensive. It wouldn't be a surprise to see a bank or two take on heavy losses and maybe even go belly up.

Not to worry, the Fed is buying up treasury bills at $40 billion a month, so they surely have enough fiat to bail out whatever losses the bullion banks may be incurring.

With the stock markets in the U.S. already underway for Tuesday, the major indices are flat-lining. Perhaps the most amusing development is in the crypto universe, where most of the popular coins are suffering continued losses. Bitcoin is the primary sufferer, hitting lows in the mid-$85,000 range overnight. Solidly in a bear market, the near-to-mid-term resting place for bitcoin figures to be around $35,000, give or take $10,000.

That is just how bitcoin rolls (over).

At the Close, Monday, December 15, 2025:
Dow: 48,416.56, -41.49 (-0.09%)
NASDAQ: 23,057.41, -137.76 (-0.59%)
S&P 500: 6,816.51, -10.90 (-0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 22,030.02, +25.67 (+0.12%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Friday Rug-Pull Sends All Asset Classes Into Tailspin; Gold and Silver Survive; Fed Cuts, Yields Gain; Gas Prices at Five Year Lows

There are only eight more trading days until Christmas and 12 more for the year.

Given that NFL football and shopping take precedence over reading boring stuff about investing and money, comments will be limited this week. Money Daily is on December hours, meaning as few as possible without sounding stupid, which, in this environment is all relative, a judgement call. Besides, two weeks from today, Money Daily will shock the world with its 2026 predictions.

Friday, everything got hit. No asset class was spared. It all had something to do with Intel, data center overbuild, profligate spending, AI hallucinations, maybe even piracy in the Caribbean. Stocks, bonds, commodities, bitcoins, alt-coins, (un)stable coins, even pre-1965 90% silver coins were marked down, just in time for Christmas.

Classic rug pull. Certainly, Howard Lutnik and his friends made millions shorting everything American. Works every time.

The global economy, at least the Western part of it, is a complete mockery of macroeconomics. There's no rhyme nor reason to any of it other than gold and silver going to the moon, because, as some people are well aware, gold and silver are money. Everything else is credit or a derivative.

Blah, blah, blah. The current administration and its cohorts in congress continue to bear strong similarities to organized crime families. That's not a simple coincidence. Raiding the treasury and high crimes are the stock in trade of end-of-empire regimes, and this is certainly one of those.

The latest from our lords and ladies in Washington D.C. involves something along the lines of $2,000 tariff stimulus checks (still waiting), seizing oil tankers, what looks to be the largest annual deficit in the nation's history, no end to the drama in Ukraine, and buying up assets of strategic companies, rivaling Fascist Italy from the 1930s and 40s.

Americans don't live in interesting times. They live in thrilling times, which is even worse and nerve-rattling.

Stocks

For the Week:
Dow: +503.06 (+1.05%)
NASDAQ: -382.96 (-1.62%)
S&P 500: -42.99 (-0.63%)
NYSE Composite: +194.28 (+0.89%)
Dow Transports: +321.45 (+1.87%)

Stocks were moving in opposite directions on Friday and throughout the week. While the NASDAQ registered its fourth losing week in the last six, the Dow Transports came within a whisker of its all-time high with a third straight banner week. Unsure why the trannys are raging as such, given the high seas have become dangerous waters for oil tankers and tariffs have slowed trade considerably. Maybe its the general price gouging by UPS, FedEx, and especially the US Postal Service, which raised prices just in time for the holidays and has already announced their usual January price hikes for next year, all at a time in which gasoline prices are nearing a five year low.

Santa Claus will arrive sometime around the 25th, given he's got cheap fuel, though high food costs for Rudolph and has pals are going to cost old Saint Nick a pretty penny. Those reindeer like their steaks rare.

For Wall Street, it cannot get much better. Not only did the FOMC cut interest rates just in time for the holidays, it's been a banner year for traders, and those year-end bonuses are sure to add some fuel to the Santa Claus Rally™.

Bah Humbug say the coiners, silver stackers and goldbugs.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
11/07/2025	4.01	3.96	3.98	3.92	3.83	3.76	3.63
11/14/2025	4.04	4.02	4.01	3.95	3.88	3.80	3.70
11/21/2025	4.03	4.01	4.00	3.90	3.84	3.75	3.62
11/28/2025	4.05	3.97	3.99	3.88	3.86	3.74	3.61
12/05/2025	3.82	3.78	3.77	3.71	3.73	3.68	3.61
12/12/2025	3.76	3.75	3.75	3.63	3.64	3.58	3.54

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
11/07/2025	3.55	3.57	3.67	3.87	4.11	4.68	4.70
11/14/2025	3.62	3.61	3.74	3.92	4.14	4.73	4.74
11/21/2025	3.51	3.50	3.62	3.82	4.06	4.67	4.71
11/28/2025	3.47	3.49	3.59	3.78	4.02	4.62	4.67
12/05/2025	3.56	3.59	3.72	3.90	4.14	4.75	4.79
12/12/2025	3.52	3.58	3.75	3.95	4.19	4.82	4.85

Yields rose on Friday, exacerbating an already stretched yield curve. Spreads on 2s-10s and full spectrum are at extremes, both posting numbers not seen since the mid-2000s. With 30-day bills yielding above the fed funds high range and yield on the 30-year bond approaching 5.00%, one has to wonder about the wisdom of cutting rates at a time in which stocks are already approaching all-time highs, employment is still steady, and the federal deficit is soaring.

Regardless, the FOMC did what Wall Street told them to do, despite a split vote, and cut the federal funds target rate to its lowest level in three years. Three percent inflation doesn't seem to both most of the voting members, nor does excessive spending by congress and the White House.

Thankfully, the brain trust at the Fed knows exactly what they're doing. Nobody trusts them at all anymore.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58
12/12: +67

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97
12/12: +109

Oil/Gas

WTI crude closed out the week at $57.53, down 4.5% from last Friday's closeout price of 60.14. There's a glut of oil on the market despite U.S. and E.U. sanctions, pirating of oil cargoes and related energy issues. The producers are pumping and storage facilities are filling. Some people are actually buying crude and turning it into useful fuel.

The U.S. national average for gas at the pump fell to $2.89, the lowest price in roughly five years and three cents lower than the prior week, according to Gasbuddy.com. Gas prices should continue to decline over the near term.

California remains the highest in the lower 48 states, at $4.35 per gallon, down 10 cents on the week and 31 cents over the past four weeks, followed by Washington ($4.00), which is about to go under $4 for the first time in two years. Oregon ($3.58), was down 11 cents. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma checking in with the lowest price in God knows when, $2.23, another radical drop of seven cents just this week. Colorado ($2.41) and Texas ($2.42) were closest. Arkansas ($2.45) and Mississippi ($2.46) and Louisiana ($2.46) follow, each marginally lower. The remaining Southeast states are all below $2.73 with the exception of Florida ($2.78) down 33 cents in three weeks time.

In the Northeast, prices remain elevated, though joining a general decline. Delaware ($2.78) was the lowest in the region, joined by New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Maryland under $3.00, with Pennsylvania ($3.16) stubbornly steady as the highest. Vermont ($3.10) and New York ($3.08) following lower.

In the midwest region, where the price relief has been significant, Illinois ($3.02) was the only state above $3.00. At the low end were Colorado ($2.41) and Iowa ($2.46), the latter down a dime from last week.

Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in fully 36 states, a gain of two from last week and 10 over the past two weeks.

Bitcoin

This week: $89,338.22
Last week: $90,860.37
2 weeks ago: $91,709.19
6 months ago: $105,562.50
One year ago: $102,259.90
Five years ago: $23,841.97

Bitcoin got struck like everything else on Friday, sending the hopes and dreams of 17-year-olds everywhere back to their mom's basements. Good thing they bought in early 2025 and are "hodling", hoping that Tom Lee or Michael Saylor or Anthony Scaramucci is right and bitcoin ends the year at $200,000 or was it $400,000, or $2 million? Yeah, hang in there, Zippy.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 69.30; last week: 72.01

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 11/14: $4,084.40
Gold price 11/21: $4,099.20
Gold price 11/28: $4,256.40
Gold price 12/5: $4,227.70
Gold price 12/12: $4,329.80

Silver price 11/14: $50.40
Silver price 11/21: $50.33
Silver price 11/28: $57.08
Silver price 12/5: $58.80
Silver price 12/12: $62.08

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 11/14: $4,080.00
Gold 11/21: $4,063.98
Gold 11/28: $4216.71
Gold 12/5: $4,196.63
Gold 12/12: $4,297.29

Silver 11/14: $50.50
Silver 11/21: $49.97
Silver 11/28: $56.37
Silver 12/5: $58.28
Silver 12/12: $62.01

Of all the asset classes that were negatively affected by Friday's rug-pull, gold and silver were the least troubled, since they were up so much on the week. Silver was making all-time highs daily and gold was finally getting bid after languishing between $4,100 and $,200 for the better part of the past month.

It can probably safely be assumed that the sudden sharp decline in all asset classes was designed to bring precious metals prices back to earth, at least over the weekend, which would be somewhat funny if not for the reality of a dying U.S. dollar.

So, gold and silver were the best performers for the week, though they could have been shooting stars. The money changers just can't stomach much more stacking and hoarding. (Don't tell anybody, but some of them are secretly buying)

The gold:silver ratio continues to descend. When it hits 50, fiat money will begin to disintegrate more rapidly. By the time it gets back to historic levels of 20:1 or 15:1 or 10:1, fiat currencies will be absolutely worthless, sending the world into an economic depression. Give it a few more years, or months, or maybe weeks.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	60.00	74.99	66.34	66.00
1 oz silver bar:	66.00	74.95	70.26	69.98
1 oz gold coin:	4,423.10	4,635.62	4,516.69	4,492.20
1 oz gold bar:	4,472.28	4,562.20	4,502.93	4,495.01

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) delivered, for the third straight week, a solid gain, to $68.15, up $1.46 from the December 7 price of $66.69 per troy ounce. The small-denomination, physical market continues to add high premia over spot and derivative market pricing, making a mockery of the COMEX price-rigging.

WEEKEND WRAP

Hey, football and Christmas. Go have a beer or three. Be nice.

At the Close, Friday, December 12, 2024:
Dow: 48,458.05, -245.96 (-0.51%)
NASDAQ: 23,195.17, -398.69 (-1.69%)
S&P 500: 6,827.41, -73.59 (-1.07%)
NYSE Composite: 22,004.35, -110.07 (-0.50%)

For the Week:
Dow: +503.06 (+1.05%)
NASDAQ: -382.96 (-1.62%)
S&P 500: -42.99 (-0.63%)
NYSE Composite: +194.28 (+0.89%)
Dow Transports: +321.45 (+1.87%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Gold, Silver, Honest Money Continue Higher as Dow, S&P 500 Make New All-Time Highs; Vince Lanci is a Tool

Editor's Note: Today, I am writing in first person singular, because I believe that when I criticize somebody, I should do it personally. -- Fearless Rick

If you're one of the many people out there who own gold and/or silver, congratulations. You've also probably heard of a fellow by the name of Vince Lanci. He runs a Substack called GoldFix and also does videos hosted by Arcadia Economics, which is Chris Marcus' baby. I have a great deal of respect for Chris Marcus, but wonder about his judgement in putting Lanci on board, because, simply put, Vince Lanci is a tool.

Some of what Lanci writes or opines about in videos makes plenty of sense, which is where one should stop. As Mark Twain so eloquently opined, "It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt." Lanci, who apparently thinks he has to impress his readers or viewers with how smart, and deep, and possessive of intimate knowledge of the inner workings of economics, usually keeps on going, making a complete ass of himself along the way.

I tempt the ghost of Mark Twain by continuing on here, because another Mark Twain pearl of wisdom states, "Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience." Point taken, but I'll shoulder the risk.

What really got me going on Vinci Lanci was his post on ZeroHedge this morning, ""Why You Don't Sell Your Physical Gold & Silver." I thought he might point out that you don't sell your precious metals because they're HONEST MONEY in the truest sense of that word, without counterparty risk, or that you can use gold and silver coins and bullion as collateral, but no, Vince, always the sage, wants everybody to hold their gold and silver because it strengthens nations, and the nation in which you live counts your personal wealth as part of theirs.

Complete bunk.

Vince says, "In quiet conversations between nations, they don’t just look at official reserves. They look at total national wealth, which includes what citizens hold," and, "If the government ever faces a real emergency, private balance sheets become part of the national picture instantly."

I wanted to stop reading right there, but my inner journalist has some kind of perverse desire to see people make complete fools of themselves, and Vince was headed in the right direction.

Vince, who usually pens his garf using the regal "we" when it comes to identifying the author, and also spends time with loudmouth nonsense-spouting babblers like Tom Luongo, began inserting random quotes without attribution, as if they were godly proclamations that were undeniable truths. Like,

“The result is a two-layer reserve structure in which central bank holdings and household metal form a single strategic perimeter.”

or,

“States are responding by building deeper metallic buffers inside their borders.”

and,

“Although ownership remains private, the metal becomes visible, recognizable, and potentially mobilizable.”

...whatever that means.

Now, see here, when I use anonymous quotes in the "Toast of the Town" on the Daily Idler and in the usual summaries every month, I do so because the quotes are vitriolic, or funny, or thought-provoking and the original speaker is somebody on an internet chat room, on X, or it was spoken by some passer-by on the street. This is a tradition I started back in 1982, with my first publication of Downtown, the Unbound Magazine. If the speaker, or “quotee” desires attribution, I am only so happy to provide it. In 43 years of doing this, nobody has ever asked. If it's an historical quote by somebody famous, infamous, or otherwise noteworthy, I give proper attribution.

What Lanci has done is essentially hyperventilation of his own theses, which are deeply flawed, and, to be honest, downright stupid.

A couple of commenters agree:

Premium subscriber and obviously a genius, FKALLIBS got eight likes for this critique: "This is probably the dumbest article I've ever read on ZH."

SmallerGovNow2 said, "While I hold and believe in gold/silver, this post is a whole lot of horse shit..." (13 likes)

Lanci has to sound smart because he's on substack, and some people actually pay for his deepest, innermost thoughts on gold and silver. Most of us in the gold and silver accumulation business don't need a daily reminder of why gold and silver this or that. We know it has value and we know that fiat currencies are failing. Trying to sound all in the know about macroeconomic trends and international finnance, like Lanci does all too often (like twie a day) adds nothing to the conversation.

The other reason I think Vince is a tool is because I once offered (try reaching him; it's nearly impossible) to trade advertising on my sites in exchange for his premium substack subscription. After waiting three weeks for a reply, I messaged again, complaining that he could at least acknowledge the message and that his work was crackpot rehashing of other people's ideas. Lo and behold, Lanci then responded with a firm, impolite, "f--- you," informing me that I had no idea how busy he was. Well, darn. it takes less than a minute to respond to a DM, which he proved by responding to my insult. Tool. Utter, cast iron, dead weight TOOL. I'm glad we never made a deal with Lanci. I don't fancy associations with arrogant, self-absorbed bumpkins. WOuld make me look bad. Besides, I would hardly read his stuff, so much of it being reconstituted, partially-plagiarized vomit.

OK, now I know that I write quite a bit, so I probably shouldn’t be criticizing a fellow voice on alternate media, but, when you're wrong, you're wrong, and Lanci is the type who will never admit it. Yes, I make mistakes. Most recently, I stumbled on some math, mistaking $1.972 billion for $1.972 trillion. Sorry, lack of sleep, maybe. I'm usually dead-on, math-wise.

So, if Vince reads this, he'll likely consider me to be beneath him somehow and my criticisms may engender a nasty comment or email. Always good to hear from my betters, I guess. Who cares? I stand uncorrected.

•. •. •. •.

Entering the final session of the week, stocks have risen to new all-time highs on the Dow and S&P. The NASDAQ lags, weighed down by AI skepticism, about 265 points short of its all-time high. On the week, through Thursday's close, the Dow is at a new high, up 749 points; the NASDAQ has gained a mere 15 points, and the S&P, also closing at a record high Thursday, is up 30 points.

With the opening ball 30 minutes ahead, stock futures are split, with the Dow up 92, the NASDAQ down 133 and the S&P off 6 points.

Gold and silver are raging higher. Spot silver reached $64.62 overnight and is holding at $64.16. Gold is rocking, at $$4,339.60, heading towards its all-time high of $4,355.18. Bitcoin ($92,325.51) can't shake the losses.

I'm waiting for somebody like Mike Maloney or maybe even Chris Marcus to do a spoof ad, "Got Metal?" Maybe I'll meme it.

See you on Sunday for the WEEKEND WRAP.

At the Close, Thursday, December 11, 2025:
DOW: 48,704.01, +646.26 (+1.34%)
NASDAQ: 23,593.86, -60.30 (-0.25%)
S&P 500: 6,901.00, +14.32 (+0.21%)
NYSE Composite: 22,114.42, +181.11 (+0.83%)

Crossing Out Pandemic Era Prices; Fed Cuts FF Rate, Re-Starts QE, Buying Bills; Oracle Reports, Stock Tanks

In horse racing handicapping, the most astute observers of form, pace, and condition will often take an unusually poor performance by an otherwise dependable steed and "put a line through it," withdrawing a bad race from the overall past performance presentation.

That approach would probably fit well within the scope of long-term investors as it pertains to the pandemic or "covid" era from February, 2020 and - depending on the particular asset - anywhere from June, 2020 to March, 2021. Taking a "before and after" snapshot of the period in between given dates, eliminates the aberrant period in which asset values were whipsawed lower and then back higher, producing a continuity in pricing that is at once more realistic and more reliable for assessing true valuations.

While it may be futile to point this out to the horde of momentum-chasing droids that populate the current investor class since few bother to look back five years, much less five weeks, when performing due diligence, if they bother with that at all. Nonetheless, smoothing out bumps and grinds along the pathways of stocks, bonds, commodities and their varied derivatives is part of the rigor of value investing. It's why moving averages are important.

For those not desirous of a deep look at the past, it's useful to note that most five year charts now, at long last, do not cover the pandemic era at all. By December, 2020, most of the financial horrors had already been relegated to a fresh dustbin of history, though effects on the human psyche and physical health persisted longer, some even to this day. One cannot easily draw a line through personal tragedy or long term illness and death has its own black line, drawn with a permanent marker.

The passage of time and the wisdom of charts has done some of the work for investors by taking out some of the bad experience, but, five years of past performances may be suitable for a seven-year-old racehorse, it's a little short on the history of companies, especially those like Dow stocks that have been around for decades. Well, some of them, at least.

Those bearing recency bias may want to perform a similar line-out on the tariff tantrum from April through July of 2025. It was also an aberration that should not be included in 52-week high or low measurements. All assets, classes, and stocks are different, so employing sound judgement on such matters is a requirement.

Looking at more recent developments, the FOMC did what everybody expected and cut the federal funds target rate 0.25%, to 3.50-3.75%, the lowest in three years. The Fed also restarted QE, announcing that they would begin buying $40 billion worth of short-dated treasury bills immediately at Chairman Powell's press conference following the policy statement. Claiming that the purchase of short-term bills is "not QE", this latest liquidity push is not explicit in the official statements, but rather referenced in the implementation note, directing the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to:

Increase the System Open Market Account holdings of securities through purchases of Treasury bills and, if needed, other Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less to maintain an ample level of reserves.

Roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities. Reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency securities into Treasury bills.

Thus, there are no reins on the NY Fed. They are free to purchase T-bills and roll over expiring bills, notes, and bonds into exclusively bills.

This indicates, as none other than "Big Short" Michael Burry opines that such a move shows that the banking sector is stressed, not "stable" as many pundits would like to reference its current condition. (Editor's Note: Oddly enough, after clicking the link to the story above, Money Daily was prompted to log into its msn account, with the message, "since you are accessing sensitive information..." How about that? Now, financial information concerning Michael Burry is now sensitive?)

The next FOMC meetings are scheduled for January 27-28 and March 17-18. The Fed made no reference toward cutting rates any further.

All of this just helped silver bump a lttle higher. With the U.S. stock markets open in half an hour, silver continues to make new all-time highs, Silver hit a high of $62.93 overnight and is holding above $62 currently. Gold is steady at $4,219, and looking to advance.

Stock futures are lower, with Dow futures right at breakeven, NASDAQ futures off 147 points and S&P futures down 25.

Oracle (ORCL) reported before the open. The stock is tanking in the pre-market, down more than 13%. Not to worry, the U.S. government owns 10% of the company. Yeah, how's that working out?

Trouble's brewing. Hurry, Santa! We've all been nice this year!

At the Close, Wednesday, December 10, 2025:
Dow: 48,057.75, +497.46 (+1.05%)
NASDAQ: 23,654.16, +77.67 (+0.33%)
S&P 500: 6,886.68, +46.17 (+0.67%)
NYSE Composite: 21,933.31, +278.52 (+1.29%)

Silver Price Riggers Swamped, Overwhelmed as the End of Debt-Based Fiat Currency Accelerates; Fed Rate Cut Expected at 2:00 pm ET

Accolades are in order for the silver price suppressors concerning Tuesday's trading. Huzzah! All praise to the riggers!

As is their usual mode of operation, in the overnight trade of December 8, leading to the morning of December 9, the usual suspects managed to smash the silver price down to $57.54. Hours later, during regular trading in New York, the price of an ounce of silver had reached the unprecedented all-time high of $60.88 in the spot market.

The price suppression cartel that operates between the United States and England has been fully broken and defeated. Within the past month alone, the price of silver has increased more than 21%. Over six months, the rise has been more than 66%, and year-to-date silver has achieved what many long-term holders of precious metals thought to be impossible: the price of silver has advanced some 109%, affirming that whatever mechanisms the New York to London fixes, spoofs, and unconscionable suppression tactics have been undertaken have failed, and failed miserably.

Implications to global economics are profound and only beginning to be understood. Silver's rising price represents a wholesale repudiation of Western economic hegemony and a radical shift from derivative pricing to physical, not just in the United States and Europe, but around the world.

A day or so ago, Fearless Rick watched a video produced by Chris Martenson, accompanied by Paul Kiker, near the end of which both presenters were dumbfounded as to why central banks were so intent on keeping the price of silver suppressed. Neither could come up with a good reason. On Tuesday, Rick posted a reply on the youtube page, republished here, which answers their question rather succinctly:

To Chris and Paul: I just wanted to offer my opinion on why central banks and major economies like the US and (ahem) England want to keep the price of silver down is because of one simple reason: It's MONEY, just like gold, and central bankers with the ability to conjure fiat currency out of thin air DO NOT APPRECIATE COMPETITION. The suppression of silver didn't happen when silver was taken out of circulation in 1965 in the US. It began much further back, in 1873, when central banks sought to remove the bi-metallic standard from with the U.S. and elsewhere and make gold the prime financial asset with the coinage act of 1973. What became known as the "Crime of '73" demonetized silver and facilitated the suffering of farmers and common people in the United States.

I have written on the subject many times on my website, https://dtmagazine.com. You can go and read my assessments of why central bankers hate silver more than gold or read many other articles around the internet. I'll certainly be writing more about banking and silver as long as I can, and actually featured silver on the money page of December's idleguy.com (https://idleguy.com/122025/8money.php).

There are far-reaching ramifications concerning silver that will come to actualization in the months and years ahead, the most powerful of which will likely be a return to sane and historic gold:silver ratio of what I believe will eventually be 10:1. By putting silver in proper perspective relative to gold and the US$, much of the world will experience prosperity as they never have before. Imagine the populations of India, China, much of the Middle East, Africa, South America and, of course, in developed nations as well, being pulled from poverty just by the men act of silver being finally recognized for its monetary potential. You can pay attention to this world-shattering event as it occurs or deny it. The choice is yours. Good day and good luck.

It's a good thing Money Daily copy/pasted the comment, because, like most of Fearless Rick's commentary, it was quickly removed (We'll repost it, again, and again, and again).

As far as the gold:silver ratio returning to the natural level of 10:1 is concerned, that development may take years, or could happen overnight, should a major economic power - India, China, Russia, Indonesia or even Saudi Arabia, or all of them - officially peg silver to gold at a 10:1 ratio. Not that it may happen, but the likelihood of it happening grows significantly closer as the ratio, even with the COMEX, CME, and the LBMA squirming to retain control continue to exist.

As of Tuesday evening, the ratio has fallen to its lowest level since 2021, 69.43, and it is likely to decline even further. Just a few weeks ago that ratio was above 84. The movement should not be easily disregarded as it represents the initial thrust in what figures to be a long-term trend. There's no doubt that the regime of fractional reserve, fiat debt-based money is nearing an end. Silver may very well be the vehicle that accelerates or completes the process.

With the stock market opening in about 30 minutes, the price of silver is holding around $60.80 after hitting a record high of $61.64 overnight in the spot market. Whatever techniques the riggers are using, they aren't working very well presently.

The big deal on Wednesday will be the conclusion of the final FOMC meeting of the year. At 2:00 pm ET the FOMC will unveil what figures to be a 25 basis point cut to the federal funds rate, from 3.75-3.50% down to 3.50-3.25%. Chairman Jerome Powell will hold the customary press conference a half hour after the announcement, and FOMC members will reveal their economic projections.

Stock futures are flat, bitcoin is hovering around the $92,000 mark and WTI crude oil is up 13 cents, at $58.38.

At the Close, Tuesday, December 9, 2025:
Dow: 47,560.29, -179.03 (-0.38%)
NASDAQ: 23,576.49, +30.58 (+0.13%)
S&P 500: 6,840.51, -6.00 (-0.09%)
NYSE Composite: 21,654.78, -48.41 (-0.22%)

Will the Fed's Hawkish Rate Cut Stop the Rally in Stocks?; Health Insurance Tax Credits Remain Unresolved, Another Government Shutdown Possible

There's been a lot of talk lately about a "hawkish" rate cut about to be promoted by the Federal Reserve's FOMC on Wednesday and this has left markets - stocks, bonds, and commodities - a little bit confused. While the widely-expected 25 basis point slash to the federal funds target rate is, in isolation, dovish, rhetoric from the Fed governors, regional presidents, and Chairman Powell himself may lean slightly to the rational side that believes inflation is still not fully under control nor is the base economy in dire enough straits to automatically assume the Fed's path is toward further easing.

Chairman Powell is likely to touch on these topics at his post-policy press conference and his points may be well-grounded, though, in the absence or delays of the usual government reports isn't going to clarify matters for the Fed's position one way or another. For instance, November PPI has now been delayed for release until January 14, the government shutdown being blamed for the delay by the bean-counters at the BLS.

Investopedia has published a list of reports that have already been delayed with the new release dates and some that have yet to be rescheduled. The somewhat long list itself is now five days old; some of the dates have been changed, again; and the lack of data implies that the Fed is "flying blind" no matter which way their economic bias trends. The lack of data also provides a potential escape hatch for any miscalculations the Fed might encounter. It wouldn't surprise anybody to hear strained apologies from Fed officials in February or March about higher prices, or low employment, or any number of economic pitfalls that may occur before, during, or after January 31, when the funding approved to end the shutdown three weeks ago runs out again.

There's every possibility that the government will shut down again, as the core issue of extending or rescinding health insurance tax credits remains unresolved with congressional holidays soon to commence. Both houses will be on holiday from December 20 through January 4. It's true that the people most responsible for the government shutdown, and lack of, or delayed, data releases are the 535 members of congress who seem unable to agree on anything beyond support for Ukraine and their own salaries. As a whole, the Senators and Representatives have been largely mute when it comes to resolving core issues and they're nowhere near consensus or compromise on the main stumbling block.

In the meantime, many Americans face a December 15 deadline to choose an insurance provider. Congress has once again left them in the lurch, without a clear decision. Many Americans may choose to opt out of choosing altogether. Premiums and deductibles on the available plans remain sky-high and congress has forwarded no guidance going forward. It's almost as if the shutdown, ostensibly forced by Democrats opposed to the cancellation of Obamacare subsidies (by Republicans in the One Big Beautiful Bill) was all for naught and the country will be forced back into indecision and shutdown again by February 1.

Inaction at the congressional level provides the Federal Reserve plenty of cover for whatever monetary policies they prefer to promote. "Don't blame us, it was them," is likely to be the phrase rising up the unaccountability chart with a bullet in early 2026 as the economy suffers, people are forced into buying things - health insurance - they don't want or can’t afford, and the media spin gyrates out of control.

What the FOMC will accomplish on Wednesday, in association with Jerome Powell and others' jawboning immediately afterwards, has all the elements of a bait-and-switch. The Fed will cut the target rate down to 3.50-3.75%, that's a given, but the talk will be about further rate cuts, in January and beyond, which the fed mouthpieces are certain to downplay. In other words, after this cut, no more, and maybe not for a long time, so you'll get some relief, but there's no guarantee we will do more of the same. In essence, the Fed is cutting rates rather reluctantly while implying that there will be a rough road ahead and they'll be standing back and watching instead of acting.

As the Wednesday 2:00 pm ET date with destiny approaches, markets remain unresolved and taking bites of reality into account. Stocks turned lower on Monday, and stock futures are heading lower across the board this morning. Actions of the Federal Reserve don't occur in a vacuum. There are more issues surrounding the economy of the U.S. and the rest of the world to consider. The unwinding of the Yen carry trade is becoming a hot-button issue, the AI spending spree is coming under considerable scrutiny as are most government policies. Reality rears its ugly head again and more people are paying attention, noticing that government and media characterizations of the state of affairs doesn't quite jibe with what they're experiencing on a day-to-day basis.

A Santa Rally may be in the offing come bonus time, but there's a good chance it will occur at levels well below what's current.

After what looks to be a "hawkish rate cut" might the next move on the markets be one of Orwellian design, like "stocks rally lower?"

At the Close, Monday, December 8, 2025:
Dow: 47,739.32, -215.67 (-0.45%)
NASDAQ: 23,545.90, -32.22 (-0.14%)
S&P 500: 6,846.51, -23.89 (-0.35%)
NYSE Composite: 21,703.20, -106.88 (-0.49%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Gold:Silver Ratio at 72, Lowest in Four Years; FOMC Rate Cut Expectations Skew Yields; Stocks Playing Waiting Game; Gas Prices Lowest in Five Years

The main focus of the past week, and something that has captured the attention of not a small slice of the investing world, continued to be the silver gambit, as the shiny precious metal continued to make new all-time highs the week following the still mysterious CME global shutdown. There continue to be reverberations from that seminal event, which may, over time, be looked upon as a epochal turning point in global economics. While there are plenty of people who may casually disregard the event and take without any grains of salt the official story of a cooling systems failure, the lack of any official government investigation leads on to conclude that there is actually something to see there, but the insiders don't want you to know what it is.

Stocks languished as bonds flourished, the rate cut odds providing ample rationale to flee from risk. Despite the usual suppression operations, gold and silver exhibited more than usual volatility. Pressure to the upside in prices is obvious and ominous at the same time.

The week ahead will be mostly about the Fed and the rate cut on Wednesday. In particular, it can be safely assumed that markets were playing the waiting game the past week, anticipating the all-powerful wizard of OZ FOMC emitting a bolt of lightning to shock and awe all participants.

Stocks

Stocks wasted everybody's time, with the operripe NASDAQ leading the way with a gain of 0.91%. The other indices were up much less than that, with the NYSE Composite actually registering a loss on the week. Equity investors are desperate for a Santa Claus rally, which could come in the form of a 0.25% rate cut at the FOMC meeting this coming week, on Tuesday and Wednesday, December 9 and 10, the latter date saved for the 2:00 pm ET official rate policy announcement.

While the expected drop in the federal funds rate from 4.00-4.25% to 3.75-4.00% may be good for stocks, it's probably going to be better for gold, silver, and possibly bitcoin, though the crypto king has been in a prolonged slump since early October and may be unable to convince enough suckers of its fabulous, long-term potential as a monetary replacement for the U.S. dollar (dreaming).

The stock market remains very close to all-time highs, and one wonders how long investors will hold onto the idea of seven stocks holding up the entire market structure on the promises of an AI revolution. The narrative has grown thin as the big players - Amazon, Google, Apple, Meta, Nvidia, etc. - are throwing hundreds of billions of dollars to build out data centers and power stations without much in the way of positive return being demonstrated.

AI, while it is useful in many functions, is not in itself a revolutionary development. It is something akin to a much faster search engine, a super-quick graphic card, and a relatively erudite wordsmith. It's main attraction is its ability to parse data at lightning speeds, which requires intense amounts of computing power. Applications for business and industry are paramount, but the promulgation of smaller, well-defined small language models (SMEs) may prove eventually to be cheaper and of more efficient use than the race toward large language models (LLMs) sought by the mega-tech companies.

As with every incident of technological advancement, there exists small start-ups and mid-cap companies whose use and advancement of the technology may produce returns that dwarf those of their gigantic rivals. Identifying those companies poised to benefit from further advancement in AI (which should be eventually deflationary when brought to scale) would be a worthwhile undertaking for the keenest of stock pickers.

Since Money Daily is not in the business of giving investment advice, we'll leave it at that, offering direction instead.

As the year of 2025 draws to a conclusion, stocks appear to have locked in rather solid gains. With just 17 trading days left, the Dow is up 12.73% year-to-date, the S&P up 16.81%, and the NASDAQ up 22.10%.

The NYSE Composite is up 14.21% on the year, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average lags, at +8.10%. Without sufficient catalysts to move stocks much higher, there's a good possibility for pullback on profit taking. There remains more than ample rationale to exit with profits before the calendar turns, with tax implications of this year and fourth quarter earnings results ahead in the new year.

While the top may already be in for this leg of the rally, nobody's yet to ring a bell, so, as anyone with two eyes is aware, this bubble may not be anywhere near bursting and a ride higher through the holiday season remains the general sentiment, and deservedly so, as the stock market usually performs rather well in December.

Individuals and institutions are likely to make their own choices based upon their investment regimens, which obviously have wide variety. Up, down, or mixed, seems to be the state of play.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
10/31/2025	4.06	4.02	4.04	3.89	3.87	3.79	3.70
11/07/2025	4.01	3.96	3.98	3.92	3.83	3.76	3.63
11/14/2025	4.04	4.02	4.01	3.95	3.88	3.80	3.70
11/21/2025	4.03	4.01	4.00	3.90	3.84	3.75	3.62
11/28/2025	4.05	3.97	3.99	3.88	3.86	3.74	3.61
12/05/2025	3.82	3.78	3.77	3.71	3.73	3.68	3.61

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
10/31/2025	3.60	3.60	3.71	3.89	4.11	4.65	4.67
11/07/2025	3.55	3.57	3.67	3.87	4.11	4.68	4.70
11/14/2025	3.62	3.61	3.74	3.92	4.14	4.73	4.74
11/21/2025	3.51	3.50	3.62	3.82	4.06	4.67	4.71
11/28/2025	3.47	3.49	3.59	3.78	4.02	4.62	4.67
12/05/2025	3.56	3.59	3.72	3.90	4.14	4.75	4.79

Fed speakers are in "quiet mode" prior to this week's FOMC meeting (Tuesday-Wednesday) as the 25 basis point cut seems virtually assured, especially given recent employment data. In the absence of the usual Non-farm Payroll data from the BLS, November's ADP report of a 45,000 jobs loss for the month sufficed to move the needle sufficiently in the direction of easier money.

Bond vigilantes weren't exactly sold on the idea, sending longer maturities higher over the week while the short end of the curve was brought lower. Yields on one-month bills declined a solid 23 basis points with the remainder giving up less until evening out at the one-year level, rising on maturities beyond that. The 30-year yield was the highest in three months (4.86% on September 4). While no cause for immediate alarm, the rise on longer-dated maturities signals that the general market still considers inflation an issue and the general tenor of U.S. fiscal policy for too loosey-goosey, for lack of a better term.

Spreads blew out, with the full spectrum (30 days - 30 years) reaching an unprecedented extreme of +97 as the polar fixtures moved in opposite directions. 2s-10s were better behaved, reaching 58, a three-month high, indicative of the many stresses in the funding mechanisms for U.S. fiscal profligacy.

From a near-term perspective, the sudden jerking of the entire curve, lower on one end, higher on the other, may seem troubling, but overall, a steepening should prove beneficial to the government as it attempts to reign in its extravagance, at least at the margins. Not to be concerned, congress will almost certainly find ways to overspend borrowed money until, well, something breaks, ostensibly, U.S. taxpayers.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97

Oil/Gas

WTI crude closed out the week at $60.14, departing from a two-week skid into the $50s, based primarily on what speculators must have considered to be oversold conditions, given that the latest round of sanctions propose to bring the evil Russian empire of crude oil to its knees and President Trump's 28, or 24, or 18-point peace plan were a sure step in the right direction towards an end of hostilities in Ukraine. What the half-hearted proposal did was provide cover for the failures of U.S. foreign policy, another short-term victory for the war promoters of Europe and the deep state in America, and more time for Russia's military to advance along the battle lines.

Such is the kind of lunacy effective in energy markets and the idle minds on Capitol Hill and in the White House. 18 rounds of sanctions designed to damage Russia haven't worked, but the 19th surely will. At this juncture, Senator Graham's proposal for even more extreme sanctions on Russia and its trading partners appear to have broad support, since everything up to this point hasn't worked. Indeed, THIS TIME will be different. Promise!

The U.S. national average for gas at the pump fell to $2.92, the lowest price in roughly five years and six cents lower than the prior week, according to Gasbuddy.com. Gas prices should continue to decline over the near term and through winter which is nothing but good news for stretched consumers and businesses.

California remains the highest in the lower 48 states, at $4.45 per gallon, down 10 cent on the week and 21 cents over the past three weeks, followed by Washington ($4.17), the two constituting the membership of the lonely $4+ club. Oregon ($3.69), was down six cents. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma checking in near the lowest price in over a year, $2.30, another radical drop of 15 cents just this week. Colorado ($2.39) and Texas ($2.42) were next. Arkansas ($2.46) and Mississippi ($2.48) and Louisiana ($2.49) follow. The remaining Southeast states are all below $2.76 with the exception of Florida ($3.91) down 20 cents in two weeks time.

In the Northeast, prices remain elevated, though at the early stages of what appears to be a general decline. Delaware ($2.89) was the lowest in the region, joined by New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Maryland under $3.00, with Pennsylvania ($3.17) steady as the highest. Vermont ($3.12) and New York ($3.09) following lower.

In the midwest region, where the price relief has been significant, Illinois ($3.04) was the only state above $3.00. At the low end were Colorado ($2.39) and Iowa ($2.56).

Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in fully 34 states, a gain of three from last week and eight over the past two weeks.

Bitcoin

This week: $90,860.37
Last week: $91,709.19
2 weeks ago: $87,373.34
6 months ago: $105,525.30
One year ago: $99,819.01
Five years ago: $18,810.76

Bitcoin has recovered from a low of around $81,000 on November 22. It remains 27% or lower beneath its all-time high of October 7 ($124.310.60). A purchase of bitcoin five years ago still yields a five-bagger. It was nearly a seven-bagger two months ago. It doesn't take much in the way of fundamental analysis to conclude that bitcoin's current path is reminiscent of that of the period from mid-November, 2021 to the end of January, 2022, when it lost nearly $30,000, being cut almost in half, on its way from the high above $64,000 to a low in the $16,000 range, a roughly 75% decline.

The current trajectory puts bitcoin at $30,000 within a year's time, not the $200,000 or $1 million suggested by the likes of Anthony Scaramucci or Michael Saylor, whose business, Strategy (MSTR), will be pretty much bankrupted with such a decline. Charts are charts and cycles are cycles. Bitcoin cheerleaders haven't had much in the way of good things to say about crypto the past few months except that it's cheap, which is like saying the Colorado Rockies will probably win more games next season (maybe).

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 72.01; last week: 74.80

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 11/7: $4,007.80
Gold price 11/14: $4,084.40
Gold price 11/21: $4,099.20
Gold price 11/28: $4,256.40
Gold price 12/5: $4,227.70

Silver price 11/7: $48.22
Silver price 11/14: $50.40
Silver price 11/21: $50.33
Silver price 11/28: $57.08
Silver price 12/5: $58.80

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 11/7: $3999.89
Gold 11/14: $4,080.00
Gold 11/21: $4,063.98
Gold 11/28: $4216.71
Gold 12/5: $4,196.63

Silver 11/7: $48.33
Silver 11/14: $50.50
Silver 11/21: $49.97
Silver 11/28: $56.37
Silver 12/5: $58.28

Friday's closing futures price for gold on the COMEX is kind of a sick joke, considering that gold futures hit a high of $4,292.30 on Monday, December 1, and $4,279.50 on Friday, December 5. The gold price suppressors remain fully in control in terms of the gold market, with central banks worldwide more than willing to accede to their pricing scheme as they continue to accumulate the Tier 1 asset of choice.

What is not so funny is the loss of control of silver futures, that metric being led by physical spot pricing in the real world. With the March contract as the front end, silver futures are back in contango, though the highest price on the futures chain of $60.69 one year out (December 2026) does not reflect very much of the spot market supply side reality. Industrial demand, increasing investment interest, and a severe supply shortage continue to pressure prices higher and the gold:silver ratio lower, to a level not seen since July, 2021, as the world was emerging from the brief and painful COVID experience.

The covid slump, which sent the GSR down to a low of 65.41 in February, 2021, was neither very deep nor lasting. Gold and silver prices quickly recovered, with gold the leading edge. This was nothing compared to the post-GFC level of 31.60 posted in February 2011, as silver skyrocketed ahead of all other assets out of the slump, reaching its highest prices since 1980.

From an historical perspective, the lowest levels of the gold:silver ratio were in 1968 and 1980, when this metric was measured in the teens. In between, through the 1970s, the GSR gyrated around the low to mid-30s. This period, post-Vietnam and also post-Bretton Woods, was a time of relative peace and prosperity for much of the world. Once the mechanisms were fully in place for price suppression of precious metals, the proponents of such found it easier to control the price of silver that that of gold, the former being a much smaller market. Of course, this period was subsequent to silver being demonetized in the United States (In 1965 silver coins were removed from circulation and in 1968 silver certificates were no longer redeemable for physical metal.) and antecedent to the infamous Hunt Brothers' escapades in the silver market in 1979 and 1980.

Conditions have changed dramatically since then. In the 50+ years since the 70s, the United States became the world's greatest debtor nation, arguably the world's foremost military aggressor and global hegemon, and today is experiencing a decline in financial and political dominance as the world becomes increasingly fractured and polarized. The main industrial use of silver was in film processing in the 70s and 80s. Today, it's solar energy, EV technology, and military manufacturing, much greater use.

What is also propelling the price of silver higher and the gold:silver ratio lower is the increased interest in silver as a monetary metal. It was 60 years ago that silver was used as a common currency, a medium of exchange, as money in not just the United States, but in many countries around the world. While silver is no longer accepted as currency or legal tender in most of the world, that is changing rapidly in major economies such as China, India, and even the United States.

The Sound Money Defense League and Money Metals produce the Sound Money Index which rates the individual states on various criteria in terms of the free use of gold and silver as money. On April 1, 2026, Indian citizens will have the ability to use silver coins and jewelry as collateral for loans, and China, which maintained a silver standard until 1935, has a long history with silver as money.

While silver minted as currency ended abruptly in the mid-20th century, the minting of silver coins for investment purposes has continued uninterrupted. From Canadian Maple Leafs, U.S. Silver Eagles, Australian Kangaroos, Cinese Pandas, and Mexican Libertads, the minting of silver coins of high (.999) purity has proceeded uninterrupted.

Those who believe that a return to a 10:1, 15:1 or 20:1 gold:silver ratio simply don't know their history. It has only been in the past 150 years (essentially since the "Crime of 1873") that silver has not held a tight peg to gold. Recent developments, such as India maximizing silver loans at a 10:1 ratio to gold (1 kilogram gold to 10 kilograms silver) and the Dubai Bank of Bullion specifying minimum purchases of 1 Oz of Gold, Platinum or Palladium and 10 Oz of Silver as minimum purchases, suggest a stealth reordering of the gold:silver ratio.

While the gold:silver ratio appears to be beginning a trend lower, getting back to historical standards of 10:1 ro 20:1 would likely take decades, or, it could happen in the blink of an eye, taking just one populous country, such as India or China, to formally declare a gold:silver ratio for a global reset to occur. The arbitrage possibilities would be so enormous that most, if not all, other countries would soon fall in line with the new standard. It is something that all siver and gold investors should carefully consider.

In the meantime, silver continues its recent acceleration over gold. Year-to-date, silver is up 101.95% to gold's rise of 60.66%. In just the past six months, silver is up a whopping 60% compared to gold's rather "pedestrian" 26%, and the meteoric rise of silver may be just beginning. The gold:silver ratio can drop rapidly. As it is, it has fallen from over 100 in May to its current level of 72. That's 30 points in just eight months. If the trend continues, imagine where it might be in five years and what the price of both gold and silver might be. Estimates range from the reasonable to the absurd, but the numbers bandied about recently focus around $10,000 for gold and $700 for silver, a GSR around 14. Over the near term, $5000 gold and $100 silver (50:1) does not seem far-fetched, even as early as the coming new year.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	59.50	69.95	66.23	67.48
1 oz silver bar:	62.00	73.95	66.62	66.43
1 oz gold coin:	4,221.99	4,518.12	4,400.19	4,389.92
1 oz gold bar:	4,338.76	4,477.78	4,400.74	4,386.88

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) delivered, for the second straight week, an impressive gain, to $66.69, up $3.75 cents from the November 30 price of $62.94 per troy ounce. The small-denomination, physical market continues to add high premia over spot and derivative market pricing.

WEEKEND WRAP

As legend goes, the eminent J.P. Morgan, when queried on whether he thought markets will go up or down, paused a moment and said, as sagaciously as possible, "markets will fluctuate." That, friends, is a truism that should always be top of mind when making any kind of investment decision.

At the Close, Friday, December 5, 2025:
Dow: 47,954.99, +104.05 (+0.22%)
NASDAQ: 23,578.13, +72.99 (+0.31%)
S&P 500: 6,870.40, +13.28 (+0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 21,810.07, -25.72 (-0.12%)

For the Week:
Dow: +238.57 (+0.50%)
NASDAQ: +212.44 (+0.91%)
S&P 500: +21.31 (+0.31%)
NYSE Composite: -14.60 (-0.07%)
Dow Transports: +597.31 (+3.60%)

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