Forget the Sequester; Bernanke Has All the Cards (and all the money)

Nothing like a couple of days in the woods - away from the Sturm und Drang of the neo-rational markets and shrieking media pundits - to offer a bit of perspective on not only the economic realities of the day, but the human condition in general.

What appeared to be the inevitable swoon the naysayers have been long-hoping-for on Monday, with markets taking their most violent downturn of the year, was quickly overruled on Tuesday and absolutely trumped and superseded with the third-best gain (on the Dow, at least) of the year on Wednesday.

Not that there wasn't a good share of associated nonsense and rationale for each of the directional market moves, but, in the end, it was a wash and a win for the erudite chairman of the Federal Reserve, Mr. Ben Bernanke, who availed himself of the opportunity to alternately receive and give both praise and chiseled criticism to both chambers of Congress in his annual Henry Hawkins testimony and the adjoining question and answer periods. We rest assured that the Chairman is content that not only are his policies of ZIRP and QEternity the correct ones for the US and global economies (because as goes the US, so goes the world at this juncture), but also that he has convinced most members of congress that they are working. Besides, there's nothing the congress nor the president nor any other person or assemblages can do about said policies, right, wrong or otherwise.

He is, for all intents and purposes, master of the financial universe. So be it.

Noting the chairman's unadulterated power to influence and control the economics of the world, skeptics still advertise their discontent, brining up the untidy details of the unwinding of his easy money regime, but this argument is a chimera, a cloak for ineptitude, a misunderstanding, a falsity, an impotent attempt to fleece power from the unbridled king of money, because the chairman and his cronies at the Fed are not at all concerned with unwinding anything. Their policies will remain in effect until the next chairman and governors are appointed/elected, and then such unwinding - if there ever is one at all - will be their problem.

For the rest of us, who do not enjoy the luxuries of appointments or elections, but rather suffer the daily slings, swings and arrows of outrageous fortune (or misfortune), a plan is a necessity, though those offered by the shysters and criminals populating the financial services industry might not always be in our own self-interest, if only because they contain the notion of conceit that markets are always optimized and correct, risk is always contained and humans always make rational decisions.

History will prove all three of those basic financial tenets absolute falsehoods. That is why we have booms and busts, successes and failures, joy and tears. Existence is not guaranteed and a fruitful existence is only attainable at some others' expense, such is the basis of capitalism.

So, a note, as the congress and the president sit upon their fattened hands awaiting the monster of their own creation - sequestration - which commences on March 1st, but in reality is more a boogie-man-in-the-closet apparition than an actual threat to the economy, especially on a local, individual, human level. It's something on the order of a two percent cut in the discretionary budget - domestic programs (not welfare, Social Security Medicare or Medicaid) and defense spending - thrown against the background of a baseline budgeting process which automatically increases the spending on these programs by three to ten percent in the upcoming continuing resolution process (which has displaced the budget process for five years now) due to commence by mid-March. In effect, the sequester is a non-sequitur - it is utterly meaningless.

Still, a plan one must have for the Ben Bernanke era, so make one, and make sure it includes not buying a new car unless you are willing and able to pay for it in cash or can get 0% interest for the life of the loan (hey, the banks get that rate, why not you?) which should be no longer than five years. Your plan should also include the paying down or clipping up (or maybe both) of all your credit cards except one for dire emergencies, unless you have $10,000 or more in cash safely hidden away in your back yard or sock drawer (though a safe would seem a more prudent place).

Those are the starting points, but check to see if you are playing more than 1/3 of your net income (after taxes) on housing. If you are, move. Downsize. There are plenty of deals available at excellent prices, even though the housing market in many places has yet to bottom.

And here's something that bugs the heck out of some people: It doesn't matter if you make $20,000, $200,000 or $2,000,000 a year. Spending four to five dollars on a cup of coffee is stupid. Stop it. Put Starbucks out of business. And stop all the other dumb, extravagant, ludicrous things like lottery tickets, day spas, dining out and "entertainment." Well, you don't have to stop them altogether, just be sensible about your spending. A very wise man (my father, RIP) once said, "it's not how much you make, but how much you spend." That kind of depression-era advice can go a long way these days (since we're in another depression but don't really know it. Shhh... the banks are faking it).

Remember at all times that financial news - even news on specific stocks - is marco-news, and, thus, will have little effect on your own personal condition.

Save. Don't invest. Save 5-10% of your gross income and put it into cash or physical gold or silver or tangible assets which will hold their value no matter what (a tough find).

Grow yourself some herbs, fruits or vegetables. Seriously. There's nothing like the taste of something you've nurtured from seed or seedling or sapling to a ripened delicacy. And, it's relatively easy. Nature does most of the work. Wall Street has nothing that compares to the return you get from a handful of seeds, sunshine and rain. Beyond that, you will be the envy of your neighbors, who aren't nearly as smart or thrifty or nature-loving as you. There's something to be said for that.

All hail the great Bernanke! Amen.

Dow 14,075.37, +175.24 (1.26%)
NASDAQ 3,162.26, +32.61 (1.04%)
S&P 500 1,515.99, +19.05 (1.27%)
NYSE Composite 8,875.33, +109.15 (1.25%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,726,024,500
NYSE Volume 3,911,747,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4528-1799
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 252-38
WTI crude oil: 92.76, +0.13
Gold: 1,595.70, -19.80
Silver: 28.94, -0.317

Market Message: Buy the Dip

Lemmings that they are, the traders and their algo-infested computer programs did what all good followers do, they followed the lead set down by the futures market prior to the open and bought stocks all day long, erasing a good portion - more than half - of the losses incurred over the past two sessions.

It being Friday and options expiration, all the boys and girls will be out having champagne and lobster in lower Manhattan tonight.

Today's results do not imply that all's right with the market, though an amazing disparity can be seen on days in which program trading is the norm as opposed to humans actually taking a hand in making bets, as was the case on Wednesday.

The fears inspired by the release of January's minutes were quickly dispelled this morning on CNBC's Squawk Box, as Fed governor James Bullard plainly stated that the Fed was not going to change policy any time soon, as though anyone in their right mind would have believed otherwise.

So, Wall Street is saved and Main Street will continue to muddle through, making the best of customers with SNAP cards and the proceeds from trips to the Coinstar machines.

Silver and gold closed out the week still at bargain-basement prices.

Dow 14,000.57, +119.95 (0.86%)
NASDAQ 3,161.82, +30.33 (0.97%)
S&P 500 1,515.60, +13.18 (0.88%)
NYSE Composite 8,887.40, +77.11 (0.88%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,540,804,625
NYSE Volume 3,463,590,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4713-1718
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 191-42
WTI crude oil: 93.00, +0.16
Gold: 1,572.80, -5.80
Silver: 28.46, -0.239

Stocks Trashed Again on Brace of Poor Economic Data

Possibly more than anything else, the horrific -12.5 print by the Philadelphia Fed was responsible for the added declines on Thursday, following Wednesday's setback after the FOMC minutes from january were announced.

The market was expecting a reading of 1.5 from the Philly Fed in its survey of business conditions, which, in and of itself, is a bit of an embarrassment, but were greeted with an even lower number for February after january came in at a disappointing -5.8. Obviously, there's little to no catalyst for improvement in the region, and the same is pretty much true in other Fed outposts, though the Philadelphia survey gets more attention, it representing a solid hub of business activity.

Beyond the sorry report, other economic data was less-than-encouraging. First-time unemployment claims ticked up 20,000, from a revised 342K last week, to 362K in the latest reporting period, dashing - for the time being - any hope of a rebound in employment.

This is a fickle, almost psychotic market. On the one hand, traders get worried that the Fed will take away the punch bowl of unlimited QE and low interest rates, but, on the other, they are equally concerned that the general economy is again approaching stall speed, as it did last year and in 2011 in the early months.

Whatever the market is feeling these past two days, it is mostly confusion and consternation. The major averages took some serious dips into the red today before a wicked, final-hour, short-covering rally brought them close to unchanged on the day, eventually failing in the final half hour of trading.

One can hardly blame the shorts for pulling a quick trigger on their positions this afternoon. Attempting to short this market and counter the Fed's relentless money creation machine has been a losing trade for the better part of four years and its a testament to the resolve of the non-believers to hold true even on a two-day reversal.

US markets were not the only ones being handed their hats on Thursday. European markets were shattered even worse after a key reading on services and manufacturing fell from 48.6 in January to 47.3 in February, well short of expectations, where the consensus was 49. It may be finally dawning on european investors that various bond schemes by the ECB and austerity measures in various countries aren't producing the desired effects and may even be contributing to continued weakness in the Eurozone.

Taken together, the Eurozone and the US are beginning to look like a pair of gussied-up party girls after a long night on the town. The makeup is fading and cracking and the hangover is setting in with a passion.

Even though two days of trading does not constitute a trend of any sort, the past two have been the worst in succession for US stocks this year and there may not be much of a respite with sequestration issues and a budget battle looming between the opposing parties in the nation's capitol, and those are two fights the American public is hardly keen on, as congress and the president have both shown an unwavering reluctance to handle pressing business like adults, preferring to play the blame game and seek short-term, band-aid types of approaches.

How the markets play out over the next few weeks and months will go a long way toward determining the mood on Wall Street and Main Street, and the mood - despite the best intentions by business - is beginning to show signs that patience is growing exceedingly thin.

Elsewhere, gold got a bit of a dead-cat-bounce after a month of steady declines, giving back those gains during the open session, though silver remains mired at multi-month lows. The metal prices may move even lower, in union with stocks, although one would be hard-pressed to find an actual physical holder of either willing to part with any or all of his or her holdings. Suppression by central banks and other operators has been well-documented, and the more they push down, the more dire conditions for a sharp response become.

Crude oil also has been taken a beating as speculators are having their lunch eaten. Overabundant supplies of WTI crude and slack demand is causing a serious disruption in the trading, which has been nothing but straight up since December. Oil and gas at the pump are about to get a whole lot cheaper.

It's getting a little bit interesting out there after the champagne rally of the first seven weeks of the year. The A-D line has been in reversal for two straight days and today's new highs - new lows reading was nearly at parity, a condition foreign to these markets since last November.

Dow 13,880.62, -46.92 (0.34%)
NASDAQ 3,131.49, -32.92 (1.04%)
S&P 500 1,502.42, -9.53 (0.63%)
NYSE Composite 8,816.74, -66.88 (0.75%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,007,395,000
NYSE Volume 4,414,224,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1942-4569
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 104-78
WTI crude oil: 92.84, -2.38
Gold: 1,578.60, +0.60
Silver: 28.70, +0.077

Fed Minutes Send Shock Waves, Stocks Plummet

Was today the day that the skeptics and shorts have been waiting for the four months? The day the market turned and rolled over, ending ridiculous speculation that the rally had more legs and major indices - S&P, Dow - would reach all-time highs?

Maybe. And to think that it would be the Fed, the very same Federal Reserve that continues relentlessly pumping money at a rate of $85 billion a month into the market, that would cause the turn is simply delicious in its irony.

Stocks were cruising along aimlessly most of the session, down slightly, until last month's Fed minutes were released at 2:00 pm ET. The initial reaction was muted, as most algos were turned off for the event, not being able to peer into the minutes from the FOMC meeting of January 29-30.

The minutes revealed extensive discussion over the current expansionary Fed policy of QE, focused around the purchase of Treasury and mortgage-backed bonds that has been in effect since September of 2012 and whether or not the Fed should continue the policy along the lines of its current stature - until unemployment targets of 6.5% are met - or modify the existing arrangement as market actions warrant.

The committee discussed its options at the January meeting, but voted in favor of keeping the current polify intact, though today's minutes show that fissures in Fed policy are beginning to appear, with not all members completely in line with Chairman Ben Bernanke's policy of unusually easy money.

Once enough wall Street experts were able to read and comprehend what the Fed was transmitting, the selling ensued and at times became quite raucous, especially in the more speculative issues on, mainly on the NASDAQ, which suffered its worst loss of the year.

The Dow lost over 100 points on the day and the S&P pulled back substantially as well. Whether or not the declines will last for more than one session is still up in the air, but what is certain is that officials at the Fed are now openly questioning policy decisions - some insisting that QE is necessary and that the economy is too fragile to change policy, others suggesting that the extraordinary measures are leading to a bubble in equity markets, a view that is beginning to gain traction.

There's little doubt anywhere that if the Fed were to substantially reduce its asset-buying-binge, the economy - and especially the equity markets - would not respond favorably and the economy could be thrust into another round of recession, a reality that is much closer than anyone wishes to believe, after last quarter's -0.1 GDP print.

At this juncture, it would appear that the Fed has tied its own hands, and that any change in policy would be damaging to markets, if not the greater economy. Mere mention of discussion about change caused a selloff, so actual change would no doubt engender more severe reactions.

Dovetailing into the government's do-nothing policy regarding the upcoming sequestration issue, Fed policy should not materially change for the next three to six months, unless the president and congress find a way toward compromise on spending cuts without raising taxes, an outcome seen as remote by most.

How the market responds tomorrow and Friday will set the stage for the final week of February, which is loaded with important economic data releases, not the least of which is the second estimate on fourth quarter GDP on the 28th. Since next Friday is the first of March, the usual non-farm payroll data will be delayed until the 8th, giving the BLS more time to analyze and massage the data.

This may or may not be a significant turn in the markets, but for certain, it's an important development heading into at least three weeks of important data and serious fiscal issues that the government has thus far been reluctant to address.

Collateral damage was done in the precious metals as gold and silver took sizable hits after the Fed minutes release.

Dow 13,927.54, -108.13 (0.77%)
NASDAQ 3,164.41, -49.18 (1.53%)
S&P 500 1,511.95, -18.99 (1.24%)
NYSE Composite 8,883.63, -120.75 (1.34%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,998,613,000
NYSE Volume 4,576,938,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1519-5016
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 470-59
WTI crude oil: 94.46, -2.20
Gold: 1,562.40, -41.80
Silver: 28.51, -0.912

Markets Up Following Three-Day Weekend; Congress Still on Vacation

Nothing like a three-day weekend to release pent-up demand.

Stocks took off like rockets into the sky at the open, leveled off and stayed about the same throughout the session. The S&P closed at a five-year high; the NASDAQ at a 12-year peak. Impressive.

Nobody is taking the issue of sequestration - which will cause some cuts in federal spending, but nothing too severe - seriously. Congress, like school-kids, teachers and administrators, has taken the entire week off.

One care hardly blame the hard-working members of congress for taking a nine-day vacation prior to sequestration to take effect on March 1. After all, they've worked tirelessly at getting re-elected and avoiding making hard choices, like putting together a budget or crafting a jobs bill to solve the unemployment situation.

Congress, like most of Washington, is a near-complete waste of effort. If there's any problem with the US economy, congress will surely attempt to make it worse. In fact, many in the business community will state quite plainly that congress and various levels of government - with its myriad rules, regulations and taxes - is the reason the economy only benefits Wall Street corporations and their shareholders. The rest of us will just have to struggle along, hopefully avoiding the taxes and rules government is so good at marking up and so bad at enforcing.

As for stocks, they're rapidly approaching record highs, which, considering the GDP was -0.1 in the 4th quarter last year and unemployment is "officially" 7.9%, is quite a remarkable feat. Truly, the power of low interest rates and unlimited QE by central banks worldwide, is very robust.

Making money in this environment has been a complete no-brainer. A monkey throwing darts at a stock table could have ramped up 10% gains easily. If the S&P 500 ends the week in positive territory, it will be the eighth straight week of gains, never before accomplished in the history of the index.

There is absolutely no fear in the marketplace, which, in and of itself, is reason to be afraid.

Precious metals - particularly gold and silver - have been on sale for some time and got even cheaper today.

Dow 14,035.67, +53.91 (0.39%)
NASDAQ 3,213.59, +21.56 (0.68%)
S&P 500 1,530.94, +11.15 (0.73%)
NYSE Composite 9,004.40, +71.18 (0.80%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,790,308,875
NYSE Volume 4,003,571,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4400-2121
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 640-39
WTI crude oil: 96.66, +0.80
Gold: 1,604.20, -5.30
Silver: 29.42, -0.427

In the video below, Senator Elizabeth Warren asks officials of various "supervisory" agencies the last time they took a big Wall Street bank to trial. The answers are, in a word, predictable.