Stocks Flatten Out To Open Week On Dull Trading Day

Talk about a slow news day!

Stocks barely budged on Monday as investors apparently had more than enough on their collective minds to care about trading. The word for the day was "dull."

That's it.

At the close, Monday, April 10, 2017:
Dow: 20,658.02, +1.92 (0.01%)
NASDAQ: 5,880.93, +3.11 (0.05%)
S&P 500: 2,357.16, +1.62 (0.07%)
NYSE Composite, 11,464.34, +18.76 (0.16%)

Jobs Numbers Disappoint, Markets End Week Confused And Lower

After ADP reported blowout jobs numbers for the private sector on Wednesday (+263,000), the expectations from the BLS in Friday's March non-farm payroll report were for a solid figure.

It didn't happen, as the Labor Department reported a gain of just 98,000 jobs, the worst since President Trump was elected and a blow to his "America First" agenda.

Expectations for the BLS' NFP were 180,000, so this was a huge miss which left investors scratching their collective heads. Stocks ended the day slightly to the downside and all four major averages lower for the week.

At the Close, Friday, April 7, 2017:
Dow: 20,656.10, -6.85 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 5,877.81, -1.14 (-0.02%)
S&P 500: 2,355.54, -1.95 (-0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 11,445.58, -11.71 (-0.10%)

For the week:
Dow: -7.12 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: -33.93 (-0.57%)
S&P 500: -7.18 (-0.30%)
NYSE Composite: -47.27 (-0.41%)

Fed Minutes Scare Traders, Turns Big Gains Into Losses

The headline says it all.

After perusing the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting (mid-March), analysts and traders saw some language they didn't exactly like, even though it was probably a long-overdue dose of reality for the Wall Street speculators.

The Dow was up nearly 200 points prior to the release of the minutes at 2:00 pm ET, but quickly reversed course ending with a 41-point loss. The NASDAQ had been at all-time record levels, but closed down 14.

The two most blaring commentaries gleaned from the minutes were that some members of the committee saw stock prices as unreasonably high and a discussion about ratcheting down the Fed's bloated balance sheet, which balooned to over $4 trillion after the financial meltdown in 2008-09.

At the Close, April 5, 2017:
Dow: 20,648.15, -41.09 (-0.20%)
NASDAQ:5,864.48, -34.13 (-0.58%)
S&P 500: 2,352.95, -7.21 (-0.31%)
NYSE Composite: 11,423.36, -47.18 (-0.41%)

Stocks Finish With Small Gains On Tuesday, But ADP Jobs Report Could Change The Narrative

Stocks finished with small gains on Tuesday, but the recent squeamishness of investors may be about to change, as ADP reported job growth of 263,000 for the month of March, the largest gains seen in the small business sector, characterized as businesses with fewer than 50 employees, which gained by 118,000 during the month.

Making note of the increasingly positive tone of business and employment, stock futures were set to explode higher, with Dow futures up by more than 50 points roughly a half hour prior to the opening bell on Wall Street.

The ADP report - which covers private sector employment - is generally seen as a guide to the highly-anticipated monthly Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, generally released the first Friday of each month. The BLS is set to issue the report for March on Friday, April, 7.

At the close, April 4, 2017:
Dow: 20,689.24 +39.03 (0.19%)
NASDAQ: 5,898.61 +3.93 (0.07%)
S&P 500: 2,360.16, +1.32 (0.06%)
NYSE Composite: 11,470.54, +6.62 (0.06%)

Stocks Stalled, Bonds Subdued, April Tax Deadline Extended

As the first week of April unfolds, there appears to be no stimulating feature to the equity markets overall, as stocks barely budged on Monday and are stalled near the UNCH line again on Tuesday.

It could be that there aren't many good values out there, or that the investor class is waiting on the political class to do something... anything, to get the economy moving, though that seems a long shot, as Democrats in the House and Senate seem to want nothing more than to waste everybody's time with a continuing assault - using fake news and innuendo as their battle-axes - against Presidnet Trump and any Republican agenda.

That particular skirmish aside, the lack of movement is stocks is probably due to the age-old waiting game, which is first and foremost awaiting the March non-farm payroll data on Friday, and, after that, a slew of earnings reports which will begin to flow to the street beginning next week.

Until such time, there simply isn't much to get excited about, except maybe that all Americans will have an additional three days to file their 2016 income taxes. Due to April 15 being on a Saturday and the Washington D.C. Emancipation Day holiday being observed on April 17 instead of April 16, 2017, Tax Day is on the following Tuesday, April 18.

OK, got that? Good.

In the meantime, bond traders are acting as though the Federal Reserve will never raise the federal funds rate again in their lifetimes, with the 10-year note sinking to a yield of just 2.35%.

The 10-year has gotten as high as 2.60% this year, but quickly retreated from that March 12 high and has remained subdued for most of the year, thus far. That could change, as the Fed has euphemistically suggested that more rate hikes would be forthcoming this year -- as many as three more.

We'll see about that.