Dow Posts New All-Time High; Retail Sales Miss, Inflation Higher In August

With a 45-point gain on Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time closing high (22,203.48), putting an exclamation mark on what has been an incredibly fruitful week for investors.

With a small gain last Friday, the Dow has now gone five straight sessions without posting a loss. The blue chip average is up 405 points for the week (1.86%) and despite some discouraging data prior to Friday's open, it appears set to finish the week on a healthy note.

The data Friday morning that sent futures lower was a pickup in inflation according to the CPI figures for August, showing a 0.4% increase, due largely to a spike in retail gas prices and a 0.5% increase in the rent factor. On a year-over-year basis, the index is up 1.9%, closing in on the Federal Reserve's two percent target rate.

Retail sales were down 0.2% in August, with the largest contributor to the decline the drop in auto sales which slumped 1.6% for the month after being flat in July.

With inflation up slightly (and understandably) and sales down, the Fed will find itself once again in a box on rate increases and likely do nothing when the FOMC meets next week. Some mention of the winding down of their enormous, $4.1 trillion balance sheet is expected and that could move markets, although the Fed has been extremely cautious to commence the wind-down as it could spark inflation, a market selloff or other unforeseen consequences.

Nonetheless, stocks are poised for another solid week while the economy appears to be slowing gradually during the third quarter.

At the Close, Thursday, September 14, 2017:
Dow: 22,203.48, +45.30 (+0.20%)
NASDAQ: 6,429.08, -31.10 (-0.48%)
S&P 500: 2,495.62, -2.75 (-0.11%)
NYSE Composite: 12,062.62, +7.44 (+0.06%)

Stocks on Track for Awesome 3rd Quarter Returns

Spoiler Alert: Depending on how your money is allocated, your third quarter 2017 401k, pension or retirement fund statement is going to look pretty good when you get it the first or second week of October.

That's because the rally that started in March, 2009 is still alive and well here in September, 2017.

For instance, if you're a blue chip kind of person, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended May just below 21,000. Two-and-a-half months later, it's broken through 22,000 and is poised for more gains through the end of the September. The Dow is tracking for roughly a five percent gain for the quarter. That's 20% annualized. Who knew this investing stuff was so easy?

In case you're a tech spec, the NASDAQ began the quarter at 6200 and just yesterday broke through to a new all-time high, above 6450. The gain is just over 4%, a little less than the Dow.

For those widely diversified, say, in an index fund tracking the S&P or NYSE, the 500 started June rocketing through 2420 and is currently just below 2500. Again, the profit is around 4%. The NYSE Composite has gone from 11,600 to over 12,000 in the quarter. That 400 point gain is less than four percent, but very safe and sound.

There are just 13 trading days remaining in the third quarter and no impediments for stocks to continue making new high after new high.

Happy returns!

At the Close, Tuesday, September 12, 2017:
Dow: 22,118.86, +61.49 (+0.28%)
NASDAQ: 6,454.28, +22.02 (+0.34%)
S&P 500: 2,496.48, +8.37 (+0.34%)
NYSE Composite: 12,057.12, +46.86 (+0.39%)

Stocks Erase Previous Week's Losses with Monday Gains; US Government Debt Surpasses $20 Trillion

Within the first few moments after the opening bell, the major indices - with the notable exception of the NASDAQ - had eviscerated the losses from last week. The NASDAQ almost wiped off last week's 75-point loss, but not quite. The other indices moved radically higher, the S&P setting a new all-time closing high, as did the NYSE.

Hurricane Irma failed to live up to disaster speculation, President Trump seems to have found his best stride, picking off the budget, debt ceiling and disaster relief debates all in one fell swoop, and the tensions over North Korea seem to have subsided, for the present.

Thus, stock investors saw smooth sailing to push already inflated prices even higher with nary a care for valuation. It is this very sort of nonchalance that usually leads to major corrections, but one has failed to materialize. That's not to say that it won't, but, with the Federal Reserve and their cohorts in centra banking picking up any slack, there is no reason to end any rally.

All of this enthusiasm for stocks occurs after this past Friday the US government debt surpassed the magical $20 trillion mark, which gives one pause to ponder the wisdom of markets. Albeit, the mainstream news media failed entirely to report this salient fact.

As the saying - attributable to John Maynard Keynes - goes, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

Hedge accordingly.

At the Close, Monday, September 11, 2016:
Dow: 22,057.37, +259.58 (+1.19%)
NASDAQ 6,432.26, +72.07 (+1.13%)
S&P 500: 2,488.11, +26.68 (+1.08%)
NYSE Composite: 12,010.37, +122.39 (+1.03%)

Stocks Post Down Week With Irma, FOMC Approaching

Since topping out in late July and early August, stocks have gyrated sideways to lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average finishing the week with a marginal (0.06%) gain Friday, enduring a losing week for all the major indices.

The losses were not great, the NASDAQ taking the brunt of the declines, down 1.17 percent for the week, while the NYSE composite was off just a quarter of a percent.

Facing a FOMC meeting in two weeks (Sept. 19-20) and the aftermath of yet-undetermined damages from hurricane Irma in Florida, Wall Street probably won't need much cheerleading to forge upward since the potential damages from Irma have been wildly overstated and the tone from the Fed continues to be accommodative. What may be worrying will come Thursday morning, when initial unemployment claims are announced prior to the opening bell.

Last week's spike of 62,000 of the 298,000 total, was largely attributable to Hurricane Harvey, as Texans sought government assistance. Similar spikes were seen after major hurricanes Katrina in 2005 and Sandy in 2012. However, the surge may be masking a breakdown in hiring and staffing as the US economy plods its way toward the important holiday season.

Full employment, a mandate of the Federal Reserve, is as close as its going to get, with unemployment nationally being reported at under five percent, historically the level understood to be full employment. Such a level - even if, as the case may be, many of the jobs are part-time - is not sustainable over the long haul. Companies will trim when profits are threatened, as has been the case throughout multiple trips through the business cycle.

Whether the government statisticians will provide true figures of the employment condition is another matter altogether. The Labor Department is congested with assumptions and adjustments which often distort the true picture.

Unless the FOMC goes rogue at their next meeting and actually raises the federal funds rate (highly unlikely), there's little to keep stocks from making a rebound, though it's probably going to be short-lived and thinly traded. The overall trend remains slightly to the downside.

At The Close, 9/8/17:
Dow: 21,797.79, +13.01 (+0.06%)
NASDAQ: 6,360.19, -37.68 (-0.59%)
S&P 500: 2,461.43, -3.67 (-0.15%)
NYSE Composite: 11,887.98, +8.37 (+0.07%)

For the week:
Dow: -189.77 (-0.86%)
NASDAQ: -75.14 (-1.17%)
S&P 500: -15.12 (-0.61%)
NYSE: -30.13 (-0.25%)

Stocks Have Nowhere To Go, Set Up For Losing Week

As dull a session as there has been for many months, Thursday's action was muted and indecisive, with stocks trading in very tight ranges.

There's some concern over the coming effects of hurricane Irma, the disaster of the week that has captured the attention of people who are afraid of shadows and dark rooms.

With the media, with help from Florida's Governor, officials from FEMA and other officious morons panicking the entire population of the Sunshine State, the expected destruction had better be significant or stocks will spend Monday of next week making up for lost time and lost profits.

In the meantime, there's ample evidence exhaustion in the equity markets, while significant action in bonds and precious metals with gold and silver scoring large gains on the day and the 10-year note yield plummeting back to levels not seen in ten months, below 2.06%.

All of this points toward a potential bloodbath Friday and the first losing week in the past three for the main indices.

With minutes until the opening bell on Friday, futures are down significantly, with the Dow futures trending lower by some 60 points.

Keep you stops close, this could get ugly.

At The Close, 9/7/17
Dow: 21,784.78, -22.86 (-0.10%)
NASDAQ: 6,397.87, +4.55 (+0.07%)
S&P 500: 2,465.10, -0.44 (-0.02%)
NYSE Composite: 11,879.61, +6.69 (+0.06%)