Last week, as the the wealthy and infamous gathered for the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, markets were focusing on more compelling domestic and international issues, primarily, the impeachment trial of President Donald J. Trump and the outbreak of the deadly coronavirus which has spread outward from its source in mainland China, now reaching around the world, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, where nearly all the developed nations are anchored.
While the impeachment hearings were less impactful, being that the first few days of the trial consisted of one session for rule-making and three days of Democrat managers from the House of Representatives reiterating their tired claims from months of investigations stemming from a single phone call, the spread of a killer virus caught everybody's attention.
The number of deaths officially reported by the Chinese government grew from 16 on Wednesday to 23 to 41 to 56 by Sunday. As the week progressed, the number of reported cases grew considerably - by Sunday, nearly 2,000 in China alone - along with the number of countries discovering outbreaks. By Sunday morning, instances of reported cases had been registered in France, South Korea, Japan, Nepal, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Taiwan, Australia, and the United States.
Similar to the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) outbreak, which killed more than 750 people in 2002-2003, the threat is that this particular virus is spreading at a much faster rate as transmissibility is increasing.
By Monday morning, the toll will likely exceed 90, but there's widespread speculation that China has been and continues to understate not only the number of cases reported, but also the death toll.
This is the kind of thing some students of the dark science of economics might consider a "black swan," an unusual event or occurrence with a low probability that nobody sees coming. Already, the coronavirus outbreak has affected markets, but none more profoundly than oil. With travel bans in effect already in some Chinese cities and many presumably taking precautions to avoid crowds and people who may be infected, the world's second-largest user of oil and distillates is bound to experience a sharp demand decline that will affect prices globally.
WTI crude fell, over the course of the week, from $58.58 per barrel to $54.19, a decline of 7.5%. Brent dropped from an opening at $65.65 on Monday to $59.85 by week's end, losing nearly nine percent.
Stocks were also hit, as increasingly dire stories continued to mount over the course of the week, limiting upside on all exchanges, and squelching rallies on Tuesday, and especially in the US on Friday, when the Chinese government announced the rising death toll and cancellation of many Lunar New Year festivities, the biggest holiday in the country.
China, already on the brink of an extended financial downturn, saw severe damage to equity markets.
If the coronavirus continues to spread to other countries and becomes a pandemic, declines on the major indices (the Dow was down for the fourth straight day as of Friday) could turn what appeared as a minor fluctuation into an avalanche. Limiting movement, be it out of fear or by government dictates, would seriously hamper economic activity anyway, and, if the contagion becomes global in nature, which it appears to be doing, the effect may be long-lasting.
So, that's how normal operating markets turn into dungeons of doom. There is no silver lining, other than, you guessed it, silver and gold, both of which turned in the opposite direction from stocks, both tumbling on Tuesday but gaining the remainder of the week. Gold finished at $1571.60 per ounce; silver closed out the week at $18.10 per ounce. There is likely to be a further, faster advance in precious metals should the virus continue to spread.
With an FOMC meeting up next week (January 28-29) bonds saw high demand, moving interest rates on treasuries to their lowest levels since October, 2019. The 10-year-note closed out the week at 1.70% yield, with the 30-year bond closing at 2.14%.
Also upcoming in the week ahead, a slew of earnings reports, many of them notable as most will be for the fourth quarter of 2019 and the full year.
On Monday, homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI) and telecom Sprint (S) get the earnings parade started. A loaded Tuesday has Lockheed Martin (LMT), 3M (MMM), Phizer (PFE), United Technologies (UTX), Nucor (NUE), and PulteGroup (PHM). Apple (APPL) and eBay (EBAY) report after the close.
On Wednesday, Dow components Boeing (BA), AT&T (T), and McDonald's (MCD) present, along with Mastercard (MA), General Electric (GE), and Dow Chemical (DOW). Tesla (TSLA), Microsoft (MSFT), Facebook (F), and PayPal (PYPL) report after the close. Thursday's offerings include some titans. Coca-Cola (K), UPS (UPS), and Verizon (VZ) report prior to the opening bell. Amazon (AMZN) and Visa (V) are up after the close.
Prior to Friday's market open, ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Caterpillar (CAT) close out the earnings deluge.
It's going to be a busy week with plenty of engaging, diverging stories. In case that's not enough, the impeachment trial could conceivably wrap up by Friday, possibly sooner, the Super Bowl is Sunday, February 2nd, and the first presidential primary, the Iowa caucus, convenes on Monday, February 3rd.
If the coronavirus continues to spread, it's not likely to slow down, so this coming week could be an opportunity to take profits and/or shed losers before markets get any ideas about tanking. Depending on how severe the virus becomes, how quickly and how far it spreads, appropriate defensive actions may be entertained.
With stocks close to all-time highs, there's hardly a case to be made for buying at this point, which, in itself may provide good enough reason for some spirited selling.
At the Close, Friday, January 24, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 28,989.73, -170.36 (-0.58%)
NASDAQ: 9,314.91, -87.57 (-0.93%)
S&P 500: 3,295.47, -30.07 (-0.90%)
NYSE: 13,978.47, -123.57 (-0.88%)
For the Week:
Dow: -358.37 (-1.12%)
NASDAQ: -74.03 (-0.79%)
S&P 500: -343.15 (-1.03%)
NYSE: -123.57 (-0.8*%)
Sunday, January 26, 2020
National Networks ABC, CBS, NBC, and FOX Should Be Under FCC Review After Impeachment Bias
Thanks to physics and my choice of living way out in the sticks, I gratefully cannot get cable TV and my antenna doesn't pick up the local ABC affiliate. Sure, I miss a college football game here or there, but I can live with that.
Since I don't know what ABC did on Saturday in their coverage of President Trump's defense team's arguments before the Senate, I can’t comment on it, but here's how NBC, FOX, and CBS handled it. NBC's local affiliate (Knoxville, TN) had NO COVERAGE at all. It was supposedly delegated over to their secondary network, but, despite looking for it, I never saw it. FOX's local affiliate offered NO COVERAGE AT ALL.
CBS covered the trial for the first hour on their primary broadcast channel, but then apparently had given their affiliate (again, Knoxville, TN) the choice to switch to local programming, which they did. I managed to only miss a minute of Jay Sekulow's arguments when they switched the impeachment coverage over to their secondary channel, frantically flipping through channels to find the proceedings.
Those unfamiliar with over-the-air digital broadcasting will note that the major networks offer a number of channels of over-the-air broadcasts. They are designated by numbers, as in 12.1, 12.2, 12.3, where 12.1 would be the primary channel, with the network's complete national lineup plus local affiliate time slots. The other channels are usually delegated to secondary or tertiary offerings, employing programming from programmers such as CW, MeTV, Grit, Bounce, Start, Ion, Court TV, etc.
Some of these programmers, such as CW, offer a variety of in-house productions, but the bulk of them are reruns of time-worn sit-coms, dramas, Westerns, or variety shows. MeTV, for instance, offers up a steady diet of everything from The Beverly Hillbillies to The Flintstones.
The national networks likely have authority to cut into the programming of their secondary offerings whenever they feel it's necessary, during emergencies or when there's a programming conflict. Saturday's airing of the Senate impeachment trial apparently was deemed to be one of those times.
Now, mind you, when the Democrats were presenting the PROSECUTION, they had hours of wall-to-wall coverage on their primary network channels. There was no switching over and cutting into the programming of the secondary channels. But, apparently, in the executive offices of NBC and the other national networks, decisions were made that the defense arguments by the president's legal team were of little to no importance. Thus they were brushed aside in favor of facial cream advertisements, local sports shows, cartoons, or other innocuous programming.
I don't know if anybody else noticed the obvious bias of the networks, but if there was ever an argument to be made for pulling their FCC licenses, this would be it. Along with the obvious bias of CNN and MSNBC, which are cable-only "news" outlets, ABC, CBS, NBC, and FOX are over-the-air networks which serve a large proportion of poor, middle-class, and especially, rural America. These networks are mis-serving the public and should have their licenses pulled, or, at least, reviewed.
The propaganda - including some smarmy legal analyst on CBS lying, after the proceedings, that Obstruction of Congress is a CRIME (it is not), and Major Garrett, prior to the hearing, promoting the notorious "heads on a pike" statement, saying it was his reporting and that he stands by it - is universally leftist, to a degree that broadcasters from the former Soviet Union are no doubt jealous.
-- Fearless Rick
Since I don't know what ABC did on Saturday in their coverage of President Trump's defense team's arguments before the Senate, I can’t comment on it, but here's how NBC, FOX, and CBS handled it. NBC's local affiliate (Knoxville, TN) had NO COVERAGE at all. It was supposedly delegated over to their secondary network, but, despite looking for it, I never saw it. FOX's local affiliate offered NO COVERAGE AT ALL.
CBS covered the trial for the first hour on their primary broadcast channel, but then apparently had given their affiliate (again, Knoxville, TN) the choice to switch to local programming, which they did. I managed to only miss a minute of Jay Sekulow's arguments when they switched the impeachment coverage over to their secondary channel, frantically flipping through channels to find the proceedings.
Those unfamiliar with over-the-air digital broadcasting will note that the major networks offer a number of channels of over-the-air broadcasts. They are designated by numbers, as in 12.1, 12.2, 12.3, where 12.1 would be the primary channel, with the network's complete national lineup plus local affiliate time slots. The other channels are usually delegated to secondary or tertiary offerings, employing programming from programmers such as CW, MeTV, Grit, Bounce, Start, Ion, Court TV, etc.
Some of these programmers, such as CW, offer a variety of in-house productions, but the bulk of them are reruns of time-worn sit-coms, dramas, Westerns, or variety shows. MeTV, for instance, offers up a steady diet of everything from The Beverly Hillbillies to The Flintstones.
The national networks likely have authority to cut into the programming of their secondary offerings whenever they feel it's necessary, during emergencies or when there's a programming conflict. Saturday's airing of the Senate impeachment trial apparently was deemed to be one of those times.
Now, mind you, when the Democrats were presenting the PROSECUTION, they had hours of wall-to-wall coverage on their primary network channels. There was no switching over and cutting into the programming of the secondary channels. But, apparently, in the executive offices of NBC and the other national networks, decisions were made that the defense arguments by the president's legal team were of little to no importance. Thus they were brushed aside in favor of facial cream advertisements, local sports shows, cartoons, or other innocuous programming.
I don't know if anybody else noticed the obvious bias of the networks, but if there was ever an argument to be made for pulling their FCC licenses, this would be it. Along with the obvious bias of CNN and MSNBC, which are cable-only "news" outlets, ABC, CBS, NBC, and FOX are over-the-air networks which serve a large proportion of poor, middle-class, and especially, rural America. These networks are mis-serving the public and should have their licenses pulled, or, at least, reviewed.
The propaganda - including some smarmy legal analyst on CBS lying, after the proceedings, that Obstruction of Congress is a CRIME (it is not), and Major Garrett, prior to the hearing, promoting the notorious "heads on a pike" statement, saying it was his reporting and that he stands by it - is universally leftist, to a degree that broadcasters from the former Soviet Union are no doubt jealous.
-- Fearless Rick
Friday, January 24, 2020
Stocks Flat As Lagarde Offers Inflation Policy Change in Europe
For the second consecutive day, stocks posted mediocre results, most likely a pause in the overall giant run they've been on since late September of 2019, and hardly anything over which to be concerned.
The manners in which these last two trading sessions found the same end were radically different, a chartists' dilemma in which Wednesday started on the upside before relenting late in the day and Thursday found stocks mired deep in the red, finding salvation in the afternoon.
Essentially, the indices produced an elongated "V" pattern, stretching over two sessions.
Being that the market is run by algorithms and influenced heavily by macro momentum, this recent spate of weakness is probably going to be downplayed by the uber-bulls and supported by dovish tones from the Federal Reserve along with more sloshing capital from their burgeoning balance sheet.
The Fed's FOMC convenes on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, but the market seems uninterested in whatever they might announce, being that they will almost surely keep interest rates precisely at the present level, the federal funds rate in a sweet spot between 1.50 and 1.75 percent, good enough to attract investors to bonds and other fixed income products and not onerous enough to preclude lending to all but the least worthy.
In Europe, newly-installed ECB head, Christine Lagarde quipped about inflation, launching a review of the bank's policies and hinting that the long-standing target of two percent might be few tenths too high under the current environment of negative interest rates and slowing national economies.
Inflation in the Eurozone has been nearly non-existent since the turn of the century, last year checking in at a subdued 1.3 percent. The call for a policy review by Lagarde is a timorous one, since practically anyone with a rudimentary understanding of economics realizes that the "Japanization" of Europe is well underway and that lowering the target for inflation to 1.6 or 1.5% is just more posturing by the central bank which has no control over the forces of mass immigration, low birth rates, and over-juiced financial markets.
Perhaps Ms. Largarde is on to something, however. Could she actually be headed for an Austrian awakening in which an epiphany guides her to understanding that any inflation is unnatural in a world of sound money?
Next thing you know, she'll be calling for a new currency to replace the flawed fiat euro, one backed by gold and silver.
Surely there would be many who scoff at the idea, but, when even negative interest rates fail to produce positive results, isn't it time to stop examining policy and start critiquing the currency itself.
Partially-backed gold and silver backed money - be it digital, paper, or coinage - may not seem such a bad idea, especially to people drowning in debt.
Central bankers have engaged in lunacy for the better part of 50 years (since Nixon's closing of the gold window in 1971). Maybe it's time for sound thinking and sound money.
At the Close, Thursday, January 23, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 29,160.09, -26.18 (-0.09%)
NASDAQ: 9,402.48, +18.71 (+0.20%)
S&P 500: 3,325.54, +3.79 (+0.11%)
NYSE: 14,102.04, -8.20 (-0.06%)
The manners in which these last two trading sessions found the same end were radically different, a chartists' dilemma in which Wednesday started on the upside before relenting late in the day and Thursday found stocks mired deep in the red, finding salvation in the afternoon.
Essentially, the indices produced an elongated "V" pattern, stretching over two sessions.
Being that the market is run by algorithms and influenced heavily by macro momentum, this recent spate of weakness is probably going to be downplayed by the uber-bulls and supported by dovish tones from the Federal Reserve along with more sloshing capital from their burgeoning balance sheet.
The Fed's FOMC convenes on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, but the market seems uninterested in whatever they might announce, being that they will almost surely keep interest rates precisely at the present level, the federal funds rate in a sweet spot between 1.50 and 1.75 percent, good enough to attract investors to bonds and other fixed income products and not onerous enough to preclude lending to all but the least worthy.
In Europe, newly-installed ECB head, Christine Lagarde quipped about inflation, launching a review of the bank's policies and hinting that the long-standing target of two percent might be few tenths too high under the current environment of negative interest rates and slowing national economies.
Inflation in the Eurozone has been nearly non-existent since the turn of the century, last year checking in at a subdued 1.3 percent. The call for a policy review by Lagarde is a timorous one, since practically anyone with a rudimentary understanding of economics realizes that the "Japanization" of Europe is well underway and that lowering the target for inflation to 1.6 or 1.5% is just more posturing by the central bank which has no control over the forces of mass immigration, low birth rates, and over-juiced financial markets.
Perhaps Ms. Largarde is on to something, however. Could she actually be headed for an Austrian awakening in which an epiphany guides her to understanding that any inflation is unnatural in a world of sound money?
Next thing you know, she'll be calling for a new currency to replace the flawed fiat euro, one backed by gold and silver.
Surely there would be many who scoff at the idea, but, when even negative interest rates fail to produce positive results, isn't it time to stop examining policy and start critiquing the currency itself.
Partially-backed gold and silver backed money - be it digital, paper, or coinage - may not seem such a bad idea, especially to people drowning in debt.
Central bankers have engaged in lunacy for the better part of 50 years (since Nixon's closing of the gold window in 1971). Maybe it's time for sound thinking and sound money.
At the Close, Thursday, January 23, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 29,160.09, -26.18 (-0.09%)
NASDAQ: 9,402.48, +18.71 (+0.20%)
S&P 500: 3,325.54, +3.79 (+0.11%)
NYSE: 14,102.04, -8.20 (-0.06%)
Thursday, January 23, 2020
Stocks Slide As IMF Revises Global Growth Projections Lower... Again
In the Senate, the impeachment trial of President Trump is well underway, though some Senators are wondering how the House managers can keep up their opening statement for another 16 hours without being laughed out of the chamber.
Adam Schiff, Gerold Nadler and their associates dithered and danced around the same tired narrative that's been their staple for the past six months and nobody is really buying it. Perhaps that's why stocks slumped late in the day, due to overwhelming boredom.
Impeachment aside, stocks were off to a solid start on Wednesday, but failed to make much progress, with the Dow actually ending in the red after being up 124 points early in the session.
There are be a plethora of reasons to be selling stocks at this juncture, main among them valuation, but the continuing slowdown in global trade and potential for most of Europe to fall into a recession are probably the most "top of mind" as winter winds blow cold across the Northern Hemisphere.
Lowering its 2019 forecast (a little late) for the sixth straight time, the IMF dropped expectations for global growth to 2.9%, down 0.1 from it's previous 3.0% expectation. Most of the data is already in place. The IMF, like everyone else, is monitoring fourth quarter results from corporations around the world.
In what has to be regarded as somewhat on the cheeky side, the IMF also lowered its 2020 forecast, from 3.4% to 3.3%. It's ludicrous to believe that the amalgamated egoistic economists at the IMF can get any prediction right, especially one calling for improvement when the early evidence is clearly favoring decline. Within a few months, these brainiacs will be revising their crystal ball projections and tea leaf readings to something more aligned with reality.
Considering that the US, at least, is at the far end of an 11-year bull market, some slowdown would be expected and it's notable that the brain-dead at the IMF cannot fathom the declining birth rate effects of demographics in developed countries, most of which have fallen below replacement figures.
With cheerleaders like those at the IMF and the relentless money creation by the Fed, there's little wonder the rich get richer as fake predictions are afforded the most credence.
At some point, the Fed will stop printing or the dollar will hyper-inflate. At that point, the IMF can revise upward and still find itself woefully behind the curve.
At the Close, Wednesday, January 22, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 29,186.27, -9.77 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 9,383.77, +12.96 (+0.14%)
S&P 500: 3,321.75, +0.96 (+0.03%)
NYSE: 14,110.24, +0.26 (+0.00%)
Adam Schiff, Gerold Nadler and their associates dithered and danced around the same tired narrative that's been their staple for the past six months and nobody is really buying it. Perhaps that's why stocks slumped late in the day, due to overwhelming boredom.
Impeachment aside, stocks were off to a solid start on Wednesday, but failed to make much progress, with the Dow actually ending in the red after being up 124 points early in the session.
There are be a plethora of reasons to be selling stocks at this juncture, main among them valuation, but the continuing slowdown in global trade and potential for most of Europe to fall into a recession are probably the most "top of mind" as winter winds blow cold across the Northern Hemisphere.
Lowering its 2019 forecast (a little late) for the sixth straight time, the IMF dropped expectations for global growth to 2.9%, down 0.1 from it's previous 3.0% expectation. Most of the data is already in place. The IMF, like everyone else, is monitoring fourth quarter results from corporations around the world.
In what has to be regarded as somewhat on the cheeky side, the IMF also lowered its 2020 forecast, from 3.4% to 3.3%. It's ludicrous to believe that the amalgamated egoistic economists at the IMF can get any prediction right, especially one calling for improvement when the early evidence is clearly favoring decline. Within a few months, these brainiacs will be revising their crystal ball projections and tea leaf readings to something more aligned with reality.
Considering that the US, at least, is at the far end of an 11-year bull market, some slowdown would be expected and it's notable that the brain-dead at the IMF cannot fathom the declining birth rate effects of demographics in developed countries, most of which have fallen below replacement figures.
With cheerleaders like those at the IMF and the relentless money creation by the Fed, there's little wonder the rich get richer as fake predictions are afforded the most credence.
At some point, the Fed will stop printing or the dollar will hyper-inflate. At that point, the IMF can revise upward and still find itself woefully behind the curve.
At the Close, Wednesday, January 22, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 29,186.27, -9.77 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 9,383.77, +12.96 (+0.14%)
S&P 500: 3,321.75, +0.96 (+0.03%)
NYSE: 14,110.24, +0.26 (+0.00%)
Wednesday, January 22, 2020
Stocks Take Extra Day Off As Impeachment Trial Opens, Virginia Protest Ends Peacefully
Almost everybody got back to work on Tuesday, following the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, including those who traveled to Richmond, Virginia to rally in support of the second amendment and congress, which eagerly got started on the impeachment trial of President Donald J. Trump.
The scene in Richmond was inspiring, if not daunting to those who oppose gun rights in the United States and elsewhere. The display of firearms - from shotguns and .22s to ARs, semi-automatic weapons, handguns and even a .50-caliber tank-buster - was impressive to say the least. The massive demonstration of an armed populace acting in a very peaceable manner without incident (only one arrest was made) served as a reminder of what America is all about: a free people willing to defend their rights against tyranny.
In congress, it was another kind of spectacle, with the managers from the House of Representatives sparring over trial rules with the president's legal team. The arguments by the House members who stand as prosecutors fell largely on deaf Republican ears as every one of the eleven proposed amendments brought up by Democrat leader Chuck Schumer was defeated along party lines, 53-47, bar one. Maine Senator, Susan Collins voted with Democrats on the 10th amendment proposed by Schumer, which would have allowed more time for both sides to respond to trial motions, but it still went down in flames, 52-48.
The marathon session lasted well into the night, finally adjourning just before two o'clock am. The defeat of the Democrats was resounding and bodes well for the president as the parties will begin making their cases when the House managers begin three days of opening arguments on Wednesday at 1:00 pm ET.
While the rhetoric was fiery and impassioned by both sides, the issues raised by the president's lawyers seemed more authentic and serious. Most of the Senators seated in the chamber are well aware that the charges levied by the Democratically-controlled House - Abuse of Power and Obstruction of Congress - are neither crimes nor are their arguments particularly well-founded. The president and his team have roundly criticized the entire impeachment process as a "sham" and a political exercise, the charges not even close to rising as impeachable offenses.
Nevertheless, House managers will have three eight-hour sessions over the next three days in which to plead their case, taking the trial through Friday. The president's defense team will also have the same allotment of time - 24 hours - to offer their case, on Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday, also in three eight-hour sessions. It's looking like the president will be acquitted on both charges in a reasonably short manner.
While there is still the possibility of calling new witnesses and adding documents, the Republicans in the Senate are unlikely to move forward on those grounds, considering that the House should have done its job better to make its case against the president without having to conjure up new charges and ddrag the country through a drawn-out, ridiculous process that could stretch into months of useless debate.
Meanwhile, Wall Street wasn't very upbeat about anything, as stocks took a rare nosedive to open the week's trading. Led by the Dow Industrials, losses were not substantial and would likely not lead to any more selling activity. Besides the Fed's nearly-continuous pumping of fresh cash into the hands of hedge funds and primary dealers (big banks and brokerages), the global outlook is a few shades light of gloomy while the rich and not-so-famous convene at Davos, Switzerland this week for the 50th annual World Economic Forum.
Business and political leaders from around the world heard President Trump speak on the glories of his "America First" policies, followed by another round of adult-shaming by eco-warrior princess, Greta Thunberg. The two cancelled each other out to some degree, though Trump's speech was longer and much more compelling than Thunberg's seven-minute screed.
Even with stocks lower, gold and silver took substantial hits at the start of the day and failed to recover to any great degree. WTI Crude oil futures continued to test the upper resistance at $58/barrel and failing, while the 10-year note was bid, finishing below a 1.80% yield for just the second time this year.
All told, it was a good day for non-financial activity, though the trading hardly reflected that. Instead, markets are displaying the kind of activity seen when stocks are overbought, as they currently are. Short-term, there's potential for a more sizable pullback, though it would take a gargantuan effort to offset the machinations of the Fed, which now has wrested nearly complete control of almost all markets.
Until the Federal Reserve takes its foot off the liquidity gas pedal, stocks should continue to outpace all other investments.
At the Close, Tuesday, January 21, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 29,196.04, -152.06 (-0.52%)
NASDAQ: 9,370.81, -18.14 (-0.19%)
S&P 500: 3,320.79, -8.83 (-0.27%)
NYSE: 14,109.98, -73.22 (-0.52%)
The scene in Richmond was inspiring, if not daunting to those who oppose gun rights in the United States and elsewhere. The display of firearms - from shotguns and .22s to ARs, semi-automatic weapons, handguns and even a .50-caliber tank-buster - was impressive to say the least. The massive demonstration of an armed populace acting in a very peaceable manner without incident (only one arrest was made) served as a reminder of what America is all about: a free people willing to defend their rights against tyranny.
In congress, it was another kind of spectacle, with the managers from the House of Representatives sparring over trial rules with the president's legal team. The arguments by the House members who stand as prosecutors fell largely on deaf Republican ears as every one of the eleven proposed amendments brought up by Democrat leader Chuck Schumer was defeated along party lines, 53-47, bar one. Maine Senator, Susan Collins voted with Democrats on the 10th amendment proposed by Schumer, which would have allowed more time for both sides to respond to trial motions, but it still went down in flames, 52-48.
The marathon session lasted well into the night, finally adjourning just before two o'clock am. The defeat of the Democrats was resounding and bodes well for the president as the parties will begin making their cases when the House managers begin three days of opening arguments on Wednesday at 1:00 pm ET.
While the rhetoric was fiery and impassioned by both sides, the issues raised by the president's lawyers seemed more authentic and serious. Most of the Senators seated in the chamber are well aware that the charges levied by the Democratically-controlled House - Abuse of Power and Obstruction of Congress - are neither crimes nor are their arguments particularly well-founded. The president and his team have roundly criticized the entire impeachment process as a "sham" and a political exercise, the charges not even close to rising as impeachable offenses.
Nevertheless, House managers will have three eight-hour sessions over the next three days in which to plead their case, taking the trial through Friday. The president's defense team will also have the same allotment of time - 24 hours - to offer their case, on Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday, also in three eight-hour sessions. It's looking like the president will be acquitted on both charges in a reasonably short manner.
While there is still the possibility of calling new witnesses and adding documents, the Republicans in the Senate are unlikely to move forward on those grounds, considering that the House should have done its job better to make its case against the president without having to conjure up new charges and ddrag the country through a drawn-out, ridiculous process that could stretch into months of useless debate.
Meanwhile, Wall Street wasn't very upbeat about anything, as stocks took a rare nosedive to open the week's trading. Led by the Dow Industrials, losses were not substantial and would likely not lead to any more selling activity. Besides the Fed's nearly-continuous pumping of fresh cash into the hands of hedge funds and primary dealers (big banks and brokerages), the global outlook is a few shades light of gloomy while the rich and not-so-famous convene at Davos, Switzerland this week for the 50th annual World Economic Forum.
Business and political leaders from around the world heard President Trump speak on the glories of his "America First" policies, followed by another round of adult-shaming by eco-warrior princess, Greta Thunberg. The two cancelled each other out to some degree, though Trump's speech was longer and much more compelling than Thunberg's seven-minute screed.
Even with stocks lower, gold and silver took substantial hits at the start of the day and failed to recover to any great degree. WTI Crude oil futures continued to test the upper resistance at $58/barrel and failing, while the 10-year note was bid, finishing below a 1.80% yield for just the second time this year.
All told, it was a good day for non-financial activity, though the trading hardly reflected that. Instead, markets are displaying the kind of activity seen when stocks are overbought, as they currently are. Short-term, there's potential for a more sizable pullback, though it would take a gargantuan effort to offset the machinations of the Fed, which now has wrested nearly complete control of almost all markets.
Until the Federal Reserve takes its foot off the liquidity gas pedal, stocks should continue to outpace all other investments.
At the Close, Tuesday, January 21, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 29,196.04, -152.06 (-0.52%)
NASDAQ: 9,370.81, -18.14 (-0.19%)
S&P 500: 3,320.79, -8.83 (-0.27%)
NYSE: 14,109.98, -73.22 (-0.52%)
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