Markets Uncertain After Rally Stalls; Trump Tariff Trauma, Conflicting Economic Reports Lead Mid-week Trading

After Monday's huge bounce to the upside, there wasn't much in the way of follow through, suggesting stocks may take another downturn shortly.

Tuesday's gains were of the smallish variety. Only the NASDAQ - being the most-leveraged of the indices - had any semblance of conviction. The broadest measure, the NYSE Composite, was actually down slightly, which is why Money Daily always reports it and others don't. Perception is half the battle in shaping outlooks.

With most of the economic data coming in below expectations, this morning's US durable goods orders came in at +0.9% against expectations of -1.0% after January was revised up from +3.2% to +3.3, defying the general logic that the U.S. is headed for a recession.

On the other hand, anybody not quite convinced that a global recession is soon to occur (if not already happening) needs to read this information from Schwab (twice):

The U.S. Q4 2024 final gross domestic product (GDP) comes out on Thursday. The previous print was 2.3% which is the highest in the world and the only country above 2%. The latest updates from China, Japan, and the United Kingdom are 1.6%, 0.6% and 0.1%, respectively. The Euro area is at 0% including Germany at –0.2%.

Two percent growth is somewhat of a baseline for GDP anywhere in the world. The idea that most countries aren't making the grade has to be a concern beyond the rhetoric of tariffs, the inflation-deflation debate, federal government downsizing, geo-politics, and the excessive assortment of market-altering events and news that seem to be popping up not only daily, but several times a day.

Wednesday appears to be a mixed bag. Futures are mixed, with Dow futures up 82, NASDAQ futures down 20, and S&P futures flat. WTI crude oil is closing in on $70 a barrel after US supply was drawn down in the latest energy report. Gold is hovering around $3,035, with silver catching a bid above $34.40.

Markets dislike uncertainty.

At the Close, Tuesday, March 25, 2025:
Dow: 42,587.50, +4.18 (+0.01%)
NASDAQ: 18,271.86, +83.26 (+0.46%)
S&P 500: 5,776.65, +9.08 (+0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 19,678.44, -25.77 (-0.13%)

4,000 Money Daily Posts Later, Nothing Has Changed; Corruption, Deficits, Loose Monetary Policy Keep the Plates Spinning

Editor's Note: According to Google's Blogger stats, this is post number 4,000 of Money Daily.

After last week's modest gains, stocks got the green light Monday, supposedly on some perceived softening of President Trump's tariff stance, and traders took the bait like a hungry school of fish, sending the major indices to the best gains in weeks.

The overall effect of Monday's rise will be to instill some confidence in markets, though how enduring the thrill may be is questionable. Nothing eally has changed in terms of geo-politics, economics, or market structure other than a one-day wondrous rally. Anybody with skin in the game knows that trends do not develop overnight and the start of the week, though buoyant, may face downward pressure in subsequent sessions.

One item that may or may not impact sentiment was the earnings report from KB Home (KBH), one of America's largest builders of new homes. The company reported revenues of $1.39 Billion and diluted earnings per share of $1.49, both of which fell short of estimates.

According to CEO, Jeffrey Mezger, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer:

"Consumers are working through affordability concerns and uncertainties related to macroeconomic and geopolitical issues, which are causing them to move slowly in their homebuying decisions. Demand at the start of this Spring’s selling season was more muted than what we have seen historically, despite a healthy level of traffic in our communities. In mid-February, we took steps to reposition our communities to offer the most compelling value, and buyers responded favorably to these adjustments. Although we missed our sales goals for the first quarter, we are encouraged by the significant improvement in weekly sales and normalizing absorption pace over the last five weeks."

OK, things are about to pick up. So says the CEO. Raise your hand if you're buying that line of reasoning. Um, anybody? How about, "we slashed our prices and a few suckers ponied up."

At a median price of $446,300, the only people buying KB's McMansions are those caught in the past or devoid of any rudimentary understanding of supply and demand economics. Prices have more than doubled since the brief bottom in 2009-10, thanks in large part to the Fed's aggressive zero interest rate policy and multiple rounds of money creation (QE). Not to be forgotten, the screaming fraud of pandemic stimulus raised new home prices by about a third in just two years (2020-2022).

Being the gold standard for ignoring the obvious, Wall Street will probably look right past the extreme unaffordability of housing that's become normalized over the past four years thanks to free-spending policies of Joe and Kamala and their colleagues in congress and step up to buy more stocks, because, as we all know, stocks never go down, except when they do.

As noted in the edit at the start of this post, this is the 4,000th daily screed and nothing has changed. Wall Street remains possibly the most corrupt acreage on the planet (City of London vying for top honors) and deluded individuals continue to feed the beast, expecting their money to grow like it was fruit from a tree when the reality is that the currency has been debased to near worthlessness and their wealth is a grandiose fiction.

Maybe the next 4,000 posts will offer some improvement.

At the Close, Monday, March 24, 2025:
Dow: 42,583.32, +597.97 (+1.42%)
NASDAQ: 18,188.59, +404.54 (+2.27%)
S&P 500: 5,767.57, +100.01 (+1.76%)
NYSE Composite: 19,704.21, +249.90 (+1.28%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Markets Take Bit of a Pause (from selling); Gold:Silver Ratio hits 90; Oil, Gas Prices Rise; Is Wall Street Worthy of Trust?

There are moments in which one has to question whether the entire financial system - particularly the stock market - isn't just one big rigged gentleman's game.

Friday was one of those moments.

Were it not for the market-wide rally off the morning lows, wherein the Dow was down more than 500 points, the NASDAQ was off by 200, and the S&P had slumped 60 points, these weekly results might all have been negatives, at least in the case of the NAZ and S&P, which would have resulted in five straight weekly losses.

Dow: +497.16 (+1.20%)
NASDAQ: +29.96 (+0.17%)
S&P 500: +28.62 (+0.51%)

Being that Friday was a quad-witching day, there were all manner of trades to be made, especially in the realm of options and futures, by which stocks could be guided in any direction, higher, lower, or both ways if need be.

The case can be made that Friday's rally was nothing more than a massive short squeeze. Indeed, all short, day-long rallies of the past few weeks might easily be redefined as short squeezes, the maligned bulls getting a small dose of redemption by taking out the weakest hands, keeping those ravenous bears from further degradation of their precious assets.

There's obviously more in play than the bruised egos of the powerful elite. Pension and retirement funds, IRAs, 401k plans, and the general well-being and "wealth effect" of the global village is tied to U.S. stock markets. When these assets get written down, the losses are felt far afield. It is thus in the best interests of the Wall Street horde and their muppet clients to keep stocks at premium levels, with valuations that are of the sky-high pie-in-the-sky variety, like Nvidia, Amazon, META, and the rest of the tech stocks, or more reasonable dividend-yielding types like some Dow stocks, maybe Boeing, or Walmart, Home Depot, Coca-Cola, IBM, et. al.

Americans are easily amused and just as easily distracted or deceived. They assume Wall Street employs the best and brightest, after the government's intelligence and IRS types, of course. Residing at the top of the heap does not necessarily confer high moral grounding, however, a common misconception amongst the great unwashed.

Americans used to trust its institutions: the government, the media, Wall Street. Now that many lies and deceptions of the past are being exposed, it's not a stretch to assume that trust is long since broken, but the lies and deception continue. Maybe there will be more truths exposed. Maybe not.

But, like the neurotic paranoid attests, "just because you think you're being followed doesn't make it not true."

Wealth effect. That's about as practical (for keeping the herd inside the fences) as trickle-down economics or geo-political domino theory.

Chew on that Americans. Then check and see if your lunch money is all still in your pocket.

Stocks

The major averages finished the week on a slightly positive note. Over the course of the past six weeks, however, stocks are still down significantly. The Dow Transports remain deeply red and the NASDAQ is still in what most people consider "correction territory," down -11.85% from December 16 highs. Though the other indices aren't quite as badly damaged, believing that the worst is over just because this week finished on a high note is delusional.

Markets are quite obviously at the start of a bear market phase. In about a month's time (end April), the initial estimate of first quarter GDP will be released. Odds are that it's either going to be very weak, in the range of 0.5-1.5% growth or outright negative, possibly as negative as -2.6-3.5%. There's plenty of money sloshing around, so liquidity isn't a problem yet, but Americans having been ravaged by inflation the past few years while to government was overspending in order to make the economy appear robust and prosperous, the physics of equal and opposite effects are about to be sprung.

Credit card and auto loan deficiencies are rising. Household income is stagnant at best and the effects of the DOGE cuts and other cost-saving measures have yet to be incorporated into the overall equation. Publicly-traded companies, as much as they are trading at perfection-level valuations, aren't wildly profitable. Some have issued profit and revenue warnings. Others are already suffering, with year-ago measures not up to par. Beyond tech stocks, which have been the hardest hit, financials and consumer discretionary sectors have been degraded.

Restaurant chains are beginning to compete on price as inflation become less of a worry and deflation, the Fed's utmost worry, begins to materialize as spending slows and austerity becomes prudent.

Under current conditions, stocks, in general, are less likely to rise than they are to decline further.

Companies reporting earnings this week:

Monday: (before open) Intuitive Machines (LUNR), Lucid Diagnostics (LUCD); (after close) Abivax (ABVX), KB Home (KBH), Dragonfly (DFLI)

Tuesday: (before open) McCormick (MKC), Smithfield (SFD), Rumble (RUM), CanadianSolar (CSIQ); (after close) Corvus Pharmaceuticals (CRVS), Paysign (PAYS), Kolibri (KGEI), GameStop (GME)

Wednesday: (before open) Chewy (CHWY), Paychex (PAYX), Cintas (CTAS), Dollar Tree ((DLTR); (after close) Petco (WOOF), Concentrix (CNXC), MicroVision (MVIS)

Thursday: (before open) Bitfarms (BITF), Winnebago (WGO); (after close) Lululemon (LULU), Abacus Life (ABL)

Friday: (before open) Katapult (KPLT), Super League (SLE).

For economic indicators, the coming week offers flash PMI readings from S&P, along with the third estimate on U.S. Q4 GDP growth. Core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) for February comes Friday.

The IPO market will be all about cloud computing firm CoreWeave (CRWV), expected to debut on the Nasdaq this week, looking to raise as much as $2.7 billion This IPO, being Nvidia-related, offers an acid test of the suspect AI trade.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
02/14/2025	4.37	N/A	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.32	4.23
02/21/2025	4.36	N/A	4.38	4.32	4.34	4.30	4.15
02/28/2025	4.38	4.37	4.38	4.32	4.32	4.25	4.08
03/07/2025	4.38	4.36	4.33	4.34	4.29	4.29	4.05
03/14/2025	4.37	4.36	4.33	4.33	4.30	4.29	4.09
03/21/2025	4.36	4.33	4.33	4.33	4.29	4.26	4.04

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
02/14/2025	4.26	4.26	4.33	4.41	4.47	4.75	4.69
02/21/2025	4.19	4.19	4.26	4.35	4.42	4.69	4.67
02/28/2025	3.99	3.99	4.03	4.14	4.24	4.55	4.51
03/07/2025	3.99	4.01	4.09	4.21	4.32	4.66	4.62
03/14/2025	4.02	4.00	4.09	4.20	4.31	4.65	4.62
03/21/2025	3.94	3.92	4.00	4.12	4.25	4.60	4.59

The FOMC meeting last Tuesday and Wednesday did little to change expectations, sending yields on long-dated maturities lower. Indicating two 25 basis point cuts still to come this year, the Fed is pushing on a string against fiscal restraint on the government side.

Beyond the Fed becoming less influential than it has been in maybe 25 years, fiscal policy is in the driver's seat. Bond vigilantes will set the tone.

The spread on 2s-10s widened out to +31, a healthy level, but the overall curve is still flat on an historical basis.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil gained for a second straight week, closing at $68.30 Friday, a solid gain from last week's closing price of 67.19. Crude remains under pressure with further downside risk.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump up, from $3.04 last Sunday to the current $3.11, which, despite not being a huge bump, is concerning since gas prices haven't actually declined much since January and February. They were actually lower in November and December. The price hike could be the result of summer blends coming online or simply refiners making better profits. The federal government has begun refilling the depleted strategic oil reserve, which also could have contributed to the general increase.

California remains at $4.61, the priciest gas in the country. Oklahoma, at $2.63, and Mississippi ($2.64) are the lowest. outside of Pennsylvania ($3.22), New England and East coast states all range between $2.85 (New Hampshire) and $3.05 (New York).

Every state in the Southeast is under $3.00, including Florida, which comes in at $2.93. The Midwest is elevated while the West continues to have the highest prices. Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, at $4.07. Oregon is at $3.70, Nevada ($3.68) and Arizona ($3.34) are next.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in at least 33 U.S. states this week.

Bitcoin

This week: $85,049.05
Last week: $84,425.85
2 weeks ago: $83,414.10
6 months ago: $63,130.39
One year ago: $67,228.68
Five years ago: $6886.60

Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. There's an even chance of it going back to that level as there is falling to around $65,000-$70,000.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 90.96; last week: 87.76

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 2/23: $2,949.60
Gold price 3/2: $2,867.30
Gold price 3/9: $2,917.70
Gold price 3/16: $2,993.60
Gold price 3/23: $3,028.20

Silver price 2/23: $32.83
Silver price 3/2: $31.43
Silver price 3/9: $32.55
Silver price 3/16: $34.11
Silver price 3/23: $33.29

To the dismay of many stackers, silver backtracked this week just as gold was setting new records. The gold:silver ratio has been out of whack for decades, and one wonders if it will ever be normalized again. Silver, as it is still recognized as a monetary metal, has been suppressed much more virulently than gold, and continues to be.

This weekend's gold:silver ratio of 90.96 screams, "buy silver."

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	34.99	48.00	40.58	39.89
1 oz silver bar:	37.00	44.50	40.61	41.00
1 oz gold coin:	3,053.95	3,378.91	3,229.71	3,247.46
1 oz gold bar:	3,039.00	3,194.24	3,151.65	3,155.35

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was knocked back this week, to $40.52, a decline of $1.74 from the March 16 price of $42.26 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

This week was more or less a pause from the frenetic pace the past eight weeks since President Trump's inauguration. There is still time to adjust.

At the Close, Friday, March 21, 2025:
Dow: 41,985.35, +32.03 (+0.08%)
NASDAQ: 17,784.05, +92.42 (+0.52%)
S&P 500: 5,667.56, +4.67 (+0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 19,454.30, -82.97 (-0.42%)

For the Week:
Dow: +497.16 (+1.20%)
NASDAQ: +29.96 (+0.17%)
S&P 500: +28.62 (+0.51%)
NYSE Composite: +222.96 (+1.16%)
Dow Transports: -34.94 (-0.24%)

Friday's Options, Futures Expirations Likely to Produce Volatile Session; Transportation Average Close to Bear Market, -17%

The end is here.

The end of the week, that is, which prompts checking the week-to-date results of the major indices heading into what should be a fairly volatile session, being the third Friday of the month, and a quad witching day (stock and index futures, stock and index options expiration) at that.

For the week through Thursday's closing bell, the Dow is up 465 points and residing just below its 200-day moving average. NASDAQ is off 62 points and the S&P is up 24. The NYSE Composite is tagging along with a 305-point gain. The badly-damaged Dow Jones Transportation Average is close to flat-lining, down five points, having just executed a death cross, with the 50-day moving below the 200-day moving average.

The Transports, incidentally, are dangerously close to bear market territory (14,637.85), down 17.55% from its high of 17,1754.38 at the Novemebr 25 close. While seldom mentioned, the Transportation Average is something over which analysts should analyze a bit. Though it's only 20 stocks, they are mostly airlines and freight movers like FedEx, UPS, JB Hunt, Old Dominion, and Ryder. When these companies are ailing, it usually means products and people aren't moving, i.e., the economy is slowing.

One can't help but notice Avis (CAR) down 38%, United Airlines (UAL) off 27.8%, Old Dominion down 18%, and FedEx off 8% in the past month. The only component showing a gain over the past 30 days is UPS, up a paltry 0.3%.

Specking of Dow components, Nike (NIKE, industrial) and FedEx (FDX, transports) both posted quarterly results after the bell Thursday and the results were fairly depressing. Both are down between eight and nine percent heading toward the open.

As Friday's open approaches, stock futures are a bit bemused by the chaotic events from the Trump presidency and its offshoots, primarily the torching of Teslas across the country and continuing lawfare by activist judges shutting down everything coming out of the White House including deportations and federal downsizing. The level of contempt for the president shown by grifting, bought off goons in robes is alarming and unprecedented. Meanwhile, Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts has done nothing to reign in these judicial malcontents, his inaction fueling even more vindictive, unconstitutional rulings from district courts around the country.

In the ongoing standoff between the Executive and Judicial branches, the White House is likely to come out ahead sinply because these judges have no mechanism by which to enforce their rulings. That is the job of the executive, and it's impossible to imagine the Trump administration engaged in self-flagellation.

The assault on the White House by unelected judges, media, and loud-mouthed members of the party out of power in congress poses great risk to the welfare of the entire country. Missing is the message to stand with America's president. Instead, Democrats and other minions of the liberal left offer "resistance" as the sole plank in their wobbly, unsustainable platform of opposition to the will of the majority. It's a saddening reminder of how deep the hatred runs in the capital swamp.

Minutes before the open, stock futures have taken a turn for the worse. Dow futures: -260; NASDAQ futures: 172; S&P futures: -40.

Hang on to your hats, though you may want to loosen your grip on some stocks.

At the Close, Thursday, March 20, 2025:
Dow: 41,953.32, -11.31 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 17,691.63, -59.16 (-0.33%)
S&P 500: 5,662.89, -12.40 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 19,537.27, -44.05 (-0.22%)

Fed Keeps Rates on Hold; Markets Overjoyed, But the Move Was Vacant; Gold Still Rising, When Silver Breaks Out, Everything Changes

Generally speaking, articles published on Yahoo! Finance tend to lean a little to the left and are almost always anti-Trump.

For its frankness, this story, published Thursday morning caught the eye and didn't disappoint on the Trump-bashing front. The article was penned by Trevor Jennewine, of The Motley Fool, not one of Yahoo! Finance's usual hacks, which may help explain why it made the front page at all.

The article, titled, "A Stock Market Alarm Is Sounding for the Third Time in 20 Years. History Says This Will Happen Next," delineates the bear markets of 2008-09 and 2020, citing negative GDP in both instances. To wit:

2008-2009: GDP declined 2.5% in Q4 2008 and remained negative through Q3 2009 as the housing market collapsed and borrowers defaulted on subprime mortgages. Those events led to the Great Recession.

2020: GDP declined 7.5% in Q2 2020 and remained negative through Q4 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic forced business closures and social distancing that disrupted supply chains around the world. Those events led to brief recession.

Noting that the first quarter of 2025 is currently projected to post a negative result somewhere between 1.5 and 2.6 by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast, the article goes on to posit... "the S&P 500 fell 56% from its high during the Great Recession, and the benchmark index fell 33% during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic."

If GDP does come in at a negative number, Yahoo! will most likely blame Trump and begin blaring about how tariffs and firings of useless federal employees are leading to a recession that will be devastating for the middle class and erode confidence in his presidency.

OK, sure. Yahoo! Finance isn't known for being shy about misplacing blame or beating the Donald's reputation into the ground, but, their honest assessment of the situation in Thursday's article may indicate that the selling in the stock market is far from over, despite wins for the bulls in three of the past four sessions.

While the recent gains may have cheered up some investors, the gains actually haven't amounted to much. While the S&P was rescued from "correction territory", it is still down eight percent from its February high and the NASDAQ is still hunkered down some 12% from December 16 and the Dow Transportation Average even further in the red.

The Big Three - Dow, NASDAQ, S&P - remain below their 200-day moving average while the NYSE Composite has regained the space between the 50 and 200-day moving averages. Other than the Composite (+2.54), they're all down year-to-date, led by the NASDAQ's 8.08% drop.

Earlier Thursday morning, something either spooked the stock futures or there's some serious horse-trading going on behind the scenes. All three majors were positive, then, suddenly, dropped like rocks into a quarry, sinking into the negative waters. It was probably a reaction to ECB President Christine Lagarde, saying US tariffs could negatively affect growth prospects in the Eurozone, a laughable statement at best, since most of Europe is already in a recession or is soon to be.

In any case, with initial unemployment claims coming in quietly at 223,000, there remains plenty to suggest that Wednesday's vacuous gains based on literally no reassurances from the Fed or Chairman Powell are soon to be vaporized by the reality of slowing economies worldwide. Keeping an eye on gold rising ($3,050) and WTI crude oil swooning ($67.17 at 9:00 am ET), there are more indicators pointing to lower for longer on the stocks front. Silver shorts on the COMEX are at record levels. If silver ever breaks out above $35, it could signal a fairly rapid move to $50 and the end of the COMEX, the entire financial system and the world as we know it. Well, maybe not everything blows up, but, silver IS money, after all, and central banks don't own any, except Russia and maybe China.

When silver moves, look out below for falling currencies, economies, and entire Western nations. France, England and South Korea being prime candidates for overthow.

At the Close, Wednesday, March 19, 2025:
Dow: 41,964.63, +383.32 (+0.92%)
NASDAQ: 17,750.79, +246.67 (+1.41%)
S&P 500: 5,675.29, +60.63 (+1.08%)
NYSE Composite: 19,581.32, +159.74 (+0.82%)

Two-Day Rally Stalls, Fails; Stocks Remain Under Pressure Ahead of FOMC Decision; Gold's Record-Setting Rally Continues

Tuesday turned out to be another rough day for equity holders as the rally that began on Friday and was extended Monday fizzled out, pointing the Dow and S&P back towards correction territory. The NASDAQ and Dow Transports remain stuck well below the -10% mark usually associated with corrections.

Wednesday afternoon (2:00 pm ET), the Fed will issue its March rate policy decision, expected to be more or less a reiteration of January's pause, holding the federal funds target rate at 4.25-4.50%, considered by veteran bond dealers to be reasonable, though opinions differ.

With inflation cooling, the 10-year note stabilizing around 4.30%, roughly the same as overnight federal funds, new age economists, inbued with years of ultra-low and even negative rates, consider anything above the rate of inflation to be excessive, thus the endless cacophony of cooing for lower rates sooner than what the Fed is offering, which is, ostensibly, one or two rate cuts this year, with the distinct possibility of none at all, barring a recession.

To be fair, the 10-year at four to five percent is historically low and the fact that the yield curve is approaching the contour of a flat line, indicates little more than a sluggish environment where neither lenders nor borrowers are pleased.

Today's FOMC statement will be closely analyzed and dissected for any clues to the Fed's intentions. Quarterly projections by Fed members and Chairman Powell's press conference will also be scrutinized by analysts and the financial media. Powell's question and answer period may be more interesting than usual given the range of issues the Fed faces, from an inflation-deflation debate to recession possibility, unemployment and a sliding stock market.

More than likely, Powell will be tight-lipped on most topics, claiming data-dependency and a wait-and-see approach.

With the market opening on the positive side, both camps of bulls and bears see opportunity. Bulls may be bargain-hunting while bears still consider stocks overvalued and any gains more potential for downside risk. Lately, any attempts by the market to rally significantly have been quickly quashed as investors have become more and more non-committal in opening new positions, seeking rather to shed losers and trim holdings, taking outsized profits to the bank.

Gold continues to ratchet higher, setting another record at $3,052.40 earlier this morning on the COMEX. Silver continues wavering near recent highs, with the hurdles of $34.50 and $35.00 significant obstacles given the extreme levels of shorting of the second metal.

WTI crude oil continues floundering about between $65 and $68, a reasonable range given the supply-demand dynamics currently in play. Supply being more than adequate and OPEC remaining at lower production levels, President Trump's calls to "drill, baby, drill," may be falling on deaf ears.

Bitcoin appears to have based at $80,000. Since making a double-bottom a week ago, upside movement has been limited. There are indications that a drop below $80,000 would trigger a rapid sell-off of another $10,000, with modest support around $70,000. Bitcoin's rally from $70,000 to $90,000 took just 10 days (November 4 - 14, 2024) which means buying was thin. There's also a good amount of fresh money in play from mid-November to mid-February that is currently held at a loss. When buyer's remorse becomes a call to action, the pace of selling could overwhelm the high-sided "hodlers" as diamond hands turn to coal.

With stocks hitting the high road prior to what's expected to be a rather mundane Fed announcement, the potential for an afternoon swoon becomes increasingly possible. Unless Chairman Powell indicates some form of relief on the way or the infamous dot plots offer more downside direction on rates, stock marketeers may be once more disappointed.

At the Close, Tuesday, March 18, 2024:
Dow: 41,581.31, -260.32 (-0.62%)
NASDAQ: 17,504.12, -304.55 (-1.71%)
S&P 500: 5,614.66, -60.46 (-1.07%)
NYSE Composite: 5,614.66, -60.46 (-1.07%)

Stocks Hold Friday Gains, Advance Second Straight Day; Gold Surges to Record as Fed Preps for FOMC Decision Wednesday

Stocks took the high road on Monday, following up on Friday's snap-back rally, posting gains in all the majors though the finish was extremely weak. In particular, NASDAQ, which was up 170 points with an hour left in the session, shed 2/3s of its gains into the close.

Monday, the government said retail sales rose a scant 0.2% in February. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.6% increase. Restaurant sales were down 1.5%, the largest decline in 13 months.

On Tuesday, the market needs to digest housing starts, building permits, import prices, industrial production and capacity utilization before the opening bell. Those readings are expected to come largely in line with estimates. Import prices are probably not reflective of tariff effects yet.

Housing starts ripped 11.2% higher after dropping 11.5% in January, well above estimates of a +1.4% monthly gain. Building Permits fell 1.2% month over month.

Capacity utilization stepped up to 78.2 percent, a rate that is 1.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average. Industrial Production was solid, up 0.7% in February.

On Wednesday, the FOMC delivers the second rate policy decision of 2025, expected to keep the federal funds target rate on hold, citing changing, challenging conditions. Following the 2:00 announcement, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell will hold a press conference and likely will take questions concerned over any deviation from economic projections from December. FOMC participants are not expected to cause much turbulence, though the market appears on edge, ready to drop another shoe, so to speak.

With the FOMC looming, Tuesday may be a repeat performance of Monday or could extend the tail that appeared late in Monday's session. Despite the seemingly large gains of the past two sessions, the majors are barely off last week's bottoms and have a lot of work to do just to

Resistance exists not far from where stocks closed Monday. A key level for the S&P appears at 5,700 and the index is at six-month lows. Buyers that fueled the rally from mid-September through mid-February must contend with being caught in a valuation trap. There's support for the S&P at 5400, 5200 and 5000, though it is ill-defined. Market forces have already signaled prevailing bearish conditions. The likelihood of a sustained rally rests on very slim assumptions and long odds.

The Dow and NASDAQ have similar set-ups with overhead resistance restraining the upside and market bottoms from August and September - the result of extensive coordinated and correlated algorithms - serving as markers for directional purposes.

From a chartist perspective, the overall picture is less-than-encouraging for the bulls. Sentiment has turned bearish, for many good reasons, among them continuing geo-political turbulence, trade and tariff concerns, expected GDP collapse for the first quarter, rising unemployment, and the potential for a recession in the U.S., rivaling what appears to be weak conditions across Europe, with political leadership steering economies toward a glacial outcome.

One could easily assume the worst is yet to come in Europe, though the equity markets in France, Germany, Britain, Spain, and elsewhere are trading at levels at or near all-time records. That particular anomaly is probably due more to a weakening U.S. dollar than to any factual basis of market fundamentals. Ir's almost as if Europeans are unaware that the equity bubble is bursting or their markets are even more divorced from reality than those in the United States. Sometimes, reality is stranger than fiction and this appears to be the case for most of Europe.

Stock levels in European markets are unsustainable, especially in the face of a U.S.-led recession. Should that emerge as the primary economic driver, the fall may be devastating.

On the other hand, European nations are hell-bent on continuing and even expanding the assault against Russia, calling for war-time spending via issuance of new debt in the trillions of euros. No doubt, a fresh infusion of cash and credit - or, at least the promise of such - will continue fueling an equity rally, but the logic behind further victimization of Russia, just as the Russians and Americans appear on the verge of a deal to partition Ukraine into smaller, more-readily digested territories, seems ill-conceived.

Perhaps the best analysis of the European condition is that their leaders, after persuing objectives laid out by the WEF and the "Great Reset" ideology for the past 15 years and now seeing them fail, are drowning in their own pools of tears. Unable to admit defeat, and, with the very real prospect of America pulling back its offensive and defensive postures, they have joined hands around a doomsday plot. Like the incursion by Ukrainian forces into Kursk, they seem to be willing to trade short term benefits for long term failure.

Such short-sighted leadership will almost certainly lead to devastating outcomes.

In light of the shuffling madness (hat tip to Ian Anderson and Jethro Tull) European investors and institutions are doing all they can to inspire confidence, buying stocks at higher and higher levels without regard to inflation, civil unrest and a generally unamused - and completely disregarded - public.

With European adventurism as a backdrop, there's no wonder gold is breaking to new records daily. From the ground level, faith and confidence in the entire European union project has been shattered. The pubic has grown weary of unelected Brussels and its dictates, longing for a return to peace and prosperity which the leadership is unable to provide. Decades of bad policies and worse decisions are soon to be coming back to haunt the continent and the British. Europe appears to be nothing less than a rudderless ship headed directly toward an iceberg while the captain and first mates are asleep in their cozy cabins.

Prospects for gold and a return to sound money may not have been this good since prior to World War I. For more than a century, central banks have ridden hard money into the ground but the game has changed. Politicians, being woefully behind the curve, are either unwilling or unable to accept the reality of new conditions. Instead they deny the truth and fight against the winds of change, like Don Quixote tilting at windmills.

The gold rally and its race to the ultimate end of being the source of all wealth and power are now unstoppable. The only question now is the timing of when fiat currencies reach their final destinations as worthless paper. It could be many more years or possibly soon. Whatever the case, gold will continue to march higher against all other currencies as the absolute store of value.

As the sun brightens over lower Manhattan this Tuesday morning, gold's shimmer is rivaling its celestial counterpart. Already today it is up another percentage point, arcing over $3.040 per ounce on the COMEX. Silver is following, at $34.55 and rising. Precious metals prices have been soaring in countries around the world. India is a prime example, with prices for gold and silver at record levels.

Stock futures are falling like dominoes. S&P Futures are down 18 points. Dow futures off 80, NASDAQ futures down 101 with the open approaching.

WTI Crude oil is up over $68/barrel, but still seems to be seeking a bottom. There are no good reasons for crude to rise and plenty of rationales for furhter declines or at least a range-bound regime short term.

At the Close, Monday, March 17, 2025:
Dow: 41,841.63, +353.44 (+0.85%)
NASDAQ: 17,808.66, +54.58 (+0.31%)
S&P 500: 5,675.12, +36.18 (+0.64%)
NYSE Composite: 19,494.71, +263.36 (+1.37%)

Stocks Slammed Again; Dow Transports Down 17%; Bear Market Confirmed; Gold Cracks $3,000; Silver Over $34; Oil Breaks 7-Week Slide

Editor's Note: This will be an abbreviated version of the WEEKEND WRAP. We have not had internet access since Friday morning and it's not supposed to be back in service until Wednesday at the earliest. Working from a remote, less-than-ideal location. -FR

Stocks

Friday's reaction rally saved the week for stock enthusiasts. Without the substantial upside returns to end the week, the major indices would have suffered another week like the last, which remains, at this juncture, the worst of the year.

Particularly troubling is the Dow Jones Transportation Average, an important index which none the less gets scant coverage. Despite a nearly two percent gain on Friday, the index fell to a nine-month low, losing more than six percent just this week.

From an all-time closing high November 25, 2024 of 17,754.38 to Friday's close at 14,643.53, it is down 17.42%.

All of the major indices have fallen below their respective 200-day moving averages and 40-week moving averages. This kind of activity indicates deeper, structural problems, not investors fretting over tariffs, government shutdowns (which don't ever actually occur), or even the slew of Trump executive orders and Elon Musk's ravaging of the federal government.

All of the major indices are down year-to-date, except for the NYSE Composite, which, thanks to Friday's 355-point gain, is clinging to a 0.70% gain. For the year, the Dow is off 2.48%, NASDAQ down 8.06%, S&P down 4.13%, and the Transportation Average is shed 7.88%.

Dow Theorists seeking confirmation of a change in the Primary Trend - from bullish to bearish - got it this week on Monday when the Dow Jones Industrials closed below its previous low of 41,938.45 (1/10/24). The move was exacerbated Thursday when the Industrials finished the session at 40,813.57, a six-month low, a move that chartists largely expected.

From its high on December 4 (45,014.04) to Friday's close, the Dow is down 7.83% and came close to the magic 10% down figure that everybody calls correction territory. There's nothing significant about a 10% decline other than the fact that it has become the standard number for corrections. Corrections can be anywhere from 5 to 15 percent, so to say that all the indices aren't already in correction is denying the obvious.

Whether or not the correction becomes a bear market is all a matter of trend spotting and anyone with open eyes can see that the trend is lower. Dow Theorists are likely not the only people who are assessing the Primary Trend condition correctly.

Any good technical analyst can see that market activity from Feruary 18 forward has all the earmarks of the first leg of a bear market, which is typified by sudden large losses. Bingo! We have a winner. The talking heads and Wall Street mouths will not acknowledge that salient fact until it's too late and many people are stuck with losses.

It's also evident that institutions have been unloading at a pace that is close to frantic. Selling winners and losers alike, the big money is taking profits and shedding losers at the same time. It's likely that all the major indices will struggle along between being down eight to 15 percent for a few months, as the second stage of the Bear market - which is longer, choppier, but even more painful - ensues.

A few stragglers are still reporting earnings next week, though few of any importance. Thursday looks like the banner day with Nike and FedEx after the close.

Monday: (before open) Townsquare (TSQ), Diversified Energy (DEC); (after close) Getty Images (GETY), Harrow Health (HROW)

Tuesday: (before open) Bitcoin Depot (BTM), Tencent Music (TME); (after close) Inovio (INO)

Wednesday: (before open) Signet Jewelers (SIG), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Ollie's (OLLI)Tencent (TCEHY); (after close) Five Below (FIVE), Gold Royalty (GROY)

Thursday: (before open) Academy Sports (ASO), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Jabil (JBL), Accenture (ACN), Land's End (LE); (after close) Nike (NIKE), FedEx (FDX), Lennar (LEN).

Friday: (before open) Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL).

Tuesday and Wednesday's FOMC meeting will dominate the airwaves, despite the nearly 100% assurance that they will make no rate moves.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
02/07/2025	4.37	N/A	4.38	4.35	4.37	4.30	4.25
02/14/2025	4.37	N/A	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.32	4.23
02/21/2025	4.36	N/A	4.38	4.32	4.34	4.30	4.15
02/28/2025	4.38	4.37	4.38	4.32	4.32	4.25	4.08
03/07/2025	4.38	4.36	4.33	4.34	4.29	4.29	4.05
03/14/2025	4.37	4.36	4.33	4.33	4.30	4.29	4.09

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
02/07/2025	4.29	4.31	4.34	4.42	4.49	4.75	4.69
02/14/2025	4.26	4.26	4.33	4.41	4.47	4.75	4.69
02/21/2025	4.19	4.19	4.26	4.35	4.42	4.69	4.67
02/28/2025	3.99	3.99	4.03	4.14	4.24	4.55	4.51
03/07/2025	3.99	4.01	4.09	4.21	4.32	4.66	4.62
03/14/2025	4.02	4.00	4.09	4.20	4.31	4.65	4.62

The second FOMC meeting of 2025 takes place Tuesday and Wednesday, with the rate policy announcement at 2:00 pm Wednesday, accompanied by quarterly economic projections and a press conference with Chairman Jerome Powell.

Expected to do what the Fed does best - nothing - the meeting will still be a dominant theme early in the week. Markets usually demonstrate calmness in the days leading up to a FOMC meeting, though in advance of this one, of which the outcome is already known with near 100% certainty, things could get a little junpy.

Besides the forecast of the Fed staying on hold, monetary policy and short term interest rates are becoming less and less influential in the face of increased activity on the fiscal side, making the sport of Fed-watching the ultimate exercise in futility. Many of the floor and desk traders will be more interested in filling out brackets for the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament which begins Tuesday.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25

Oil/Gas

The fall in the price of WTI crude oil that reached seven straight weeks on Friday closes is over. After dropping from $77.37 at the New York close on January 17, to $74.60 on January 24, to $73.81 on January 31, to $71.06 on February 7, $70.56 on February 14, $70.25 on February 21, $69.95 on the 28th, to $67.05 on the New York close on March 7, the price was up slightly to $67.19, which, despite a gain of 14 cents on the week, isn't really big news, especially since it dropped to a low of $65.52 on Monday, March 10.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump down two cents from last week, at $3.04. The price of gas nationwide should continue falling as long as crude prices continue to drop. There's a lag time of anywhere from three to six weeks, as previous deliveries at higher prices are wound down.

California remains on top, though down a another six cents from last week, at $4.61. Oklahoma and Texas tied for the lowest at $2.60.

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in at least 39 U.S. states with more to come.

Bitcoin

This week: $84,425.85
Last week: $83,414.10
2 weeks ago: $94,335.26
6 months ago: $58,078.76
One year ago: $68,476.68
Five years ago: $6,872.02

Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. There's an even chance of it going back to that level as there is falling to around $65,000 in the weeks and months ahead.

As Money Daily has expressed confidently in the past, bitcoin is a sham which will eventually become worthless.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 87.76; last week: 89.64

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 2/16: $2,893.70
Gold price 2/23: $2,949.60
Gold price 3/2: $2,867.30
Gold price 3/9: $2,917.70
Gold price 2/9: $2,993.60

Silver price 2/16: $32.65
Silver price 2/23: $32.83
Silver price 3/2: $31.43
Silver price 3/9: $32.55
Silver price 2/9: $34.11

Gold and silver continue to do what they do best, discounting the $US and other fiat currencies. Gold topped $3,000 on the COMEX this week, hitting a high of $3,014. Silver remains a breakout candidate, though $35 appears to be significant resistance. Patience is key.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	35.00	49.95	42.07	41.38
1 oz silver bar:	34.00	49.95	42.95	42.62
1 oz gold coin:	2,895.00	3,212.50	3,144.68	3,183.24
1 oz gold bar:	2,999.99	3,187.56	3,130.38	3,128.81

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) marched higher on the week, to $42.26, a gain of $1.80 from the March 9 price of $40.46 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

Some people - mostly Wall Street sell-side analysts and their clients - believe the recent volatility is nothing more than a correction and possibly some profit-taking. To the rubes who allow bank and brokerage "wealth management" consultants to manage their money, it's always the same story. "Oh, don't sell, this is nothing", or, "we have strategies to manage situations like this."

They never, ever reveal to clients what their internal analysis is saying because that might cause people to pull their funds out and leave the brokers and dealers without OPM (Other People's Money) with which to play. Can't have that.

In the end, whenever there's a significant market downturn, they'll always advise to "stay the course" and "think long-term" while selling all of their own shares. Wall Street brokers are a bunch of snake oil salesmen, and that may be a compliment. Mostly, they're just crooks in nice suits, in much the same manner as politicians.

That said, the recent direction of the market indicates more - not less - volatility ahead. Ending the week with big gains on Friday is one of the oldest tricks in the books. By pumping stocks into the weekend (while cashing in on call options purchsed earlier in the week or beforehand), the general public, which has the market acumen and attention span of a flea, a snail, or a worm, goes home happy for the weekend, thinking all is well and next week will be better.

For the record, Friday results from the start of 2025 to the present (simple UP or DOWN):

Walking backwards,

date/index	Dow	NASDAQ	S&P 500	NYSE Comp.
3/14	UP	UP	UP	UP
3/7	UP	UP	UP	UP
2/28	UP	UP	UP	UP
2/21	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN
2/14	DOWN	UP	DOWN (0.41)	DOWN
2/7	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN
1/31	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN
1/24	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN	UP
1/17	UP	UP	UP	UP
1/10	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN
1/3	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN

In 6 out of the 11 weeks, the result for the week was the opposite (or close to it) of what happened on Friday alone.

In 4, the result was the same.

In 1 instance, the result was mixed.

For the past three weeks, however, the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P all finished UP on Friday, but the result for the week was DOWN, except on February 28, when only the Dow finished UP on Friday and for the week.

For those with poor pattern recognition skills and/or not paying much attention (retired Boomers in their McMansions with over $1 million in stocks), it's a roller coaster and they can't get off.

At the Close, Friday, March 14, 2025:
Dow: 41,488.19, +674.62 (+1.65%)
NASDAQ: 17,754.09, +451.07 (+2.61%)
S&P 500: 5,638.94, +117.42 (+2.13%)
NTSE Composite: 19,231.35, +355.82 (+1.89%)

For the Week:
Dow: -1313.53 (-3.07%)
NASDAQ: -442.13, (-2.43%)
S&P 500: -131.26 (-2.27%)
NYSE Composite: -341.71 (-1.75%)
Dow Transports: -966.89 (-6.19%)

PPI Flat for Februrary as Market Remains Nervous Over Tariffs, Dis-inflation, and Recession; Gold Gains, Silver Fails to Advance

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ each got a reprieve from selling after finishing lower the first two days of the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average did not, marking its third straight session in the red.

In an up-and-down Wednesday session, the S&P and NASDAQ chopped their way from early losses to finish on the upside, thanks to a moderate CPI reading for February.

This morning's February PPI didn't offer any similar relief, coming in flat as compared to January's hike of 0.6% and December 0.5% rise.

The BLS reported:

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.6 percent in January and 0.5 percent in December 2024. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 3.2 percent for the 12 months ended in February.

This reading provides yet more evidence that inflation is no longer the main problem facing the economy, because deflation or dis-inflation are accompanying the Trump administration's policies of downsizing government (DOGE), deporting illegals, and issuing tariffs across the globe.

The smartest guys on Wall Street are more than likely clued in to this sudden change, though they, and the financial "journalists" covering the markets and economy are not about to talk openly about it. That might scare the muppets even more than rising prices. Instead, they're keeping the information on the QT, selling off losers and taking profits on winners, of which there have been many over the past 16-18 months.

When the PPI figure was announced, there was no joy to be seen nor heard in lower Manhattan. On one hand, flat producer prices aren't exactly what the inflation-lovers at the Fed and in Wall Street brokerage houses want to hear. In case it even matters at all any more, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to even consider lowering the federal funds target rate at its meeting next week or in any subsequent meeting for the time being. The only condition under which the Fed might drop the key rate would be in the case of an imminent recession, to provide stimulus to the business community and ease up on consumers, but that condition has yet to materialize.

It likely will in months ahead, perhaps even as early as late April, when first quarter GDP is estimated. Current projections are for the U.S. economy to have shrunk by 2-3% for the quarter, though it's still too early to tell. Market participants may get their wish sooner than expected, though not for the reasons they prefer, and maybe not at all.

All that was elicited from stock futures when the PPI was announced was a huge yawn, as though PPI was a rag doll compared to Wednesday's beauty queen CPI.

With the market minutes from opening, Dow futures are down 80 points, NASDAQ futures off 74, and S&P futures dragged down 13.

WTI crude futures, which have been priced higher the past two days after Monday's collapse to $65.52, is down once again, off 54 cents, at $67.51, a price which is not encouraging to producers.

Gold topped $2,950 on the COMEX this morning, though silver refuses to be bid above $33.50, already backing off slightly, to $33.35.

With nothing big happening on Friday, Thursday's trade may offer some insight as to how low markets may want to go.

At the Close, Wednesday, March 12, 2025:
Dow: 41,350.93, -82.55 (-0.20%)
NASDAQ: 17,648.45, +212.35 (+1.22%)
S&P 500: 5,599.30, +27.23 (+0.49%)
NYSE Composite: 19,051.64, -0.49 (-0.00%)

Soft CPI Signals Inflation Easing Though Wall Street Is Getting the Wrong Memo; Dis-inflation, Deflation, Unemployment On Tap

According to the completely honest and always-reliable Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS):

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, after rising 0.5 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Naturally, since the monthly data came in below expectations, Wall Street was ecstatic, sending stock futures soaring, which is kind of humorous since inflation - as Money Daily has been pointing out for weeks - is not the main issue facing the economy, but the opposite, dis-inflation or deflation, the natural outcome of Trump policies of tariffs, deportations, and government downsizing which continue to be implemented.

These policies will take months to be realized, possibly not until late summer or fall, but deflation will be an issue along with elevated unemployment. Wall Street traders, after two consecutive days of losses and more than a month of down-trending, doesn't care to look beyond the ends of their noses, but instead are seeking any kind of signal to buy the deep dip, and it appears the benign inflation data is the ideal tonic.

Adding to the euphoria was the House on Tuesday passing a stop-gap funding bill (CR) that will keep the government operational through the end of the current fiscal year (September 30). The kicker there is that congressmen, investors, and mainstream media wind-up dolls will express great dismay as Trump and Musk (remember, these are businessmen) continue to cut budgets and not spend all that's been appropriated, effective coming in "under budget", the effect being fewer federal employees, fewer government contracts, and a general squeeze on money being pumped into the economy, the hallmark of every administrations since Ronald Reagan.

While today's stock burst may be followed by another round of gleeful cheerleading when PPI is released tomorrow, the overall effect will be short-lived. Institutions have ben taking profits for weeks and months, stocks will remain overvalued for a while, until GDP gets reported the last week of April and shows that the first quarter was contracting and the U.S. is already in a recession.

That's the general prognosis, but one worth keeping in mind as the Wall Street drones, which know only how to buy stocks, keep pushing the "all's well" narrative.

Stay informed and don't be fooled. The primary trend has reversed. Bear market conditions are prevalent.

A half hour before the open, Dow futures are up 305 points, NASDAQ futures ahead by 335, and S&P futures sailing along, up 65.

Gold is bid at $2,925, but the bigger story may be silver, which is headed toward the October highs, currently trading at or near breakout levels above $33.45.

At the Close, Tuesday, March 11, 2025:
Dow: 41,433.48, -478.23 (-1.14%)
NASDAQ: 17,436.10, -32.23 (-0.18%)
S&P 500: 5,572.07, -42.49 (-0.76%)
NYSE Composite: 19,052.13, -150.25 (-0.78%)

Stocks Take Deep Dive on Trump Recession Possibility; NASDAQ Goes Deeper Into Correction: Dow Industrials Confirm Primary Trend Reversal

Suffice it to say that Monday's market action was not a good way to start the week. However, judging by market activity the past few weeks, it was readily predictable and maybe even inevitable.

The bad news is that it appears there's more to come. The good news is that there's likely to be a bounce-back rally of some magnitude.

On Sunday's WEEKEND WRAP, the question was whether or not the Dow Industrials would confirm the drop on the Dow Transports essential to the Dow Theory's Primary Trend Reversal. The answer was a loud and clear, resounding yes.

Not only did the Dow close below the most recent low (41,938.45, January 10), but the intra-day low of 41,612.92, was down with earlier closing lows from October 31 (41,763.46) and November 4, 2024 (41,749.60), essentially a double bottom. Late-day tape-painting once again saved the Dow from an ignominious finish, tacking on just less than 300 points in the final 48 minutes.

The NASDAQ, quite naturally, as it remains the most overpriced of the majors, took the brunt of the deal, losing four percent on the day. While the 727.90-point loss on the NASDAQ was the third-highest ever, in percentage terms, it didn't even make the top 25.

The S&P's loss of 155.64 comes in as the ninth-highest ever, but the 2.70 percentage loss was not even close to the top 40. Incidentally, the top 20 largest-point losses on both the NASDAQ and S&P are all from 2020 forward, attesting to overvaluation in extremis.

In any case, Monday was not "The Big One."

Year-to-date, the NASDAQ is down 9.54% and already in correction (-10% or more). The S&P is off 4.54% and the Dow a mere 1.49%.

Overall, the economic outlook is rather gloomy, the result of dealing with reality as opposed to the fantasy of the past 16 years (since the sub-prime bottom in March, 2009). Money Daily has been carping about valuation for the longest time. Others are beginning to chime in, especially analysts from the major brokerages, who are busy revising their forecasts for 2025. Sorry, fellas, too little, too late. People are beginning to lose faith in the almighty power of Wall Street.

Elsewhere, bitcoin dipped below $77,000, a four-month low and a distinctive repudiation of all the ecstasy over bitcoin ETFs, and the latest, the Crypto Sovereign Wealth Fund established last Thursday by a Trump Executive Order and kicked off with a ceremony at the White House Friday. It was evident to all but the cultist "hodlers" that the U.S. Treasury has no plans to be buying any bitcoin or other crypto any time soon.

As usual, gold and silver got kicked lower, but both have already rallied back to levels seen last week. Gold: $2,912; silver: $32.67.

WTI Crude oil bottomed at $65.52, but is rallying Tuesday morning by about a buck.

Futures were higher earlier, but have flattened out and turned negative, which probably means the bounce-back rally may not happen today, or at worst, will begin to take shape sometime after 10:00 or 11:00 am ET.

Bears are at the door and they appear quite hungry.

At the Close, Monday, March 10, 2025:
Dow: 41,911.71, -890.01 (-2.08%)
NASDAQ: 17,468.32, -727.90 (-4.00%)
S&P 500: 5,614.56, -155.64 (-2.70%)
NYSE Composite: 19,202.38, -370.69 (-1.89%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Gold, Silver Rebound; Bitcoin Ponzi Begins to Break Down After White House Disappoints; Stocks Suffering

Stocks suffered their worst performance of the year last week and the trauma is unlikely to abate as concerns over tariffs proposed and imposed by President Trump have rattled the investor class. Some tariffs have already been imposed, more to come April 2nd, when reciprocal tariffs have been promised.

It's not only tariffs worrying the market. Valuation is high on the list of issues affecting stock prices. Stocks were on a tear from November, 2023, to late last year and into January, when the S&P hit an all-time high.

Stocks have backed off considerably, with the NASDAQ dipping into correction (-10%) twice during the week.

The price of oil continues to slide. Gold and silver rallied.

Stocks

The week was pretty rough for equity holders. All of the major indices have fallen below their respective 50-day moving averages, except the NASDAQ, which closed the last two sessions of the week below its 200-day moving average.

While the broadly-measured NYSE Composite remains green for the year, up 2.49%, along with the Dow (+0.61%), the S&P is down 1.89% year-to-date, the NASDAQ, -5.77%. Dow Transports are down 1.80% for 2025.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average has closed below its 200-day moving average for two weeks straight (10 sessions) and is clearly into correction territory, down 12.1%, from 17754.38 late November to a closing price of 15610.42 Friday. Dow Theorists contend that the Industrials must confirm the downside move in order to indicate a change in the primary trend.

Dropping from 45,014.04 December 4th to 42,801.72 at Friday's close is a 4.91% dip, the Dow is signaling that it very well may not find a bottom soon. Intra-day drops have been closer to 42,500. Any sustained downside should be sufficient to satisfy the primary trend confirmation requirement. That's a wait-and-see proposition, though it's becoming somewhat obvious that many traders are not waiting for another shoe to drop, so to speak.

A few stragglers are still reporting earnings next week:

Monday: (before open) NetPower (NPWR), Telos (TLS), Biontech (BNTX); (after close) Vail Resorts (MTN), Oracle (ORCL)

Tuesday: (before open) Fuel Cell Energy (FCEL), Viking Cruise Lines (VIK), Ciena (CIEN), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Kohl's (KSS); (after close) Groupon (GRPN), StitchFix (SFIX)

Wednesday: (before open) iRobot (IRBT), Ondas (ONDS); (after close) Vrown Castle (CCI), American Eagle Outfitters (AEG), Adobe (ADBE)

Thursday: (before open) Dollar General (DG); (after close) DocuSign (DOCU), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Semtech (SMTC)

Friday: (before open) Li Auto (LI).

February CPI is released Wednesday, PPI Thursday, both before the open (8:30 am EDT)

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
01/31/2025	4.37	N/A	4.37	4.31	4.33	4.28	4.17
02/07/2025	4.37	N/A	4.38	4.35	4.37	4.30	4.25
02/14/2025	4.37	N/A	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.32	4.23
02/21/2025	4.36	N/A	4.38	4.32	4.34	4.30	4.15
02/28/2025	4.38	4.37	4.38	4.32	4.32	4.25	4.08
03/07/2025	4.38	4.36	4.33	4.34	4.29	4.29	4.05

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
01/31/2025	4.22	4.27	4.36	4.47	4.58	4.88	4.83
02/07/2025	4.29	4.31	4.34	4.42	4.49	4.75	4.69
02/14/2025	4.26	4.26	4.33	4.41	4.47	4.75	4.69
02/21/2025	4.19	4.19	4.26	4.35	4.42	4.69	4.67
02/28/2025	3.99	3.99	4.03	4.14	4.24	4.55	4.51
03/07/2025	3.99	4.01	4.09	4.21	4.32	4.66	4.62

Rates didn't change much at the short end. Longer-dated maturities sold off, as the 10-year yield gained 0.08% and the 30-year added 0.09%. Spreads widened, with 2s-10s increasing from +25 to +33, and full spectrum out to +24 from +13. The fact that stocks and bonds both sold off during the week suggests a strong preference for cash, either in money markets or short-term bills.

Nothing to get excited about, though the market may be saying that inflation isn't as big a worry as the media and some financial analysts have been suggesting.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24

Oil/Gas

The fall in the price of WTI crude oil has now reached seven straight weeks on Friday closes. It's dropped from $77.37 at the New York close on January 17, to $74.60 on January 24, to $73.81 on January 31, to $71.06 on February 7, $70.56 on February 14, $70.25 on February 21, $69.95 on the 28th, and finally, to $67.05 on the New York close this Friday. Seven consecutive weeks of falling prices by a cumulative 12 percent and a -43.6% from the June 3, 2022 high of $118.87 (thanks, Joe!) constitutes a definitive signal that lower prices are here to stay.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump remained steady at $3.06. The price of gas nationwide should continue falling as long as crude prices continue to drop. There's a lag time of anywhere from three to six weeks, as previous deliveries at higher prices are wound down.

California remains on top, though down a another eight cents from last week, at $4.67.

Pennsylvania fell five cents, to $3.26, the Keystone State remaining the longtime price leader in the Northeast. Vermont ($3.14) has taken second place over New York, at $3.11, followed by Maine ($3.05). Connecticut ($3.02) and Massachusetts ($2.98) saw small price drops. Maryland is back down to $2.92. New Jersey is at $2.95.

Illinois was down a penny, to $3.17. Ohio ($2.79) and Indiana ($2.86) were up slightly, but well below recent readings.

Mississippi ($2.58) is the lowest in the country, better than Louisiana ($2.62), Tennessee ($2.64) and Kentucky ($2.66), and Alabama ($2.68). South Carolina and Oklahoma are both at $2.69, followed by North Carolina and Arkansas at $2.72. Georgia ($2.88) and Florida ($3.07) complete the low-cost SouthEast region. Kansas ($2.79) is the lowest in the Midwest. Missouri ($2.85), Iowa ($2.95), and Nebraska ($2.98) were all higher this week.

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in four more states than last week. At least 33 U.S. states have prices under $3.00.

The West continues to suffer the highest prices in the country. Arizona ($3.37) was down three cents. Oregon dropped a mere one cent, at $3.71, while Nevada dropped six, also down to $3.71. Washington fell three cents to $4.09, joining California in the tiny club of mainland states at $4.00 or higher. Utah ($2.98) was down, rejoining the sub-$3.00 group, but Idaho ($3.14) was up one cent.

Bitcoin

This week: $83,414.10
Last week: $94,335.26
2 weeks ago: $95,900.56
6 months ago: $59,123.20
One year ago: $63,043.77
Five years ago: $8,902.84

Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. Last Sunday (3/2), bitcoin was boosted by nearly $10,000 on Sunday morning to over $94,000, on word of the White House "Crypto Summit" which took place Friday (3/7). During the week, the price of bitcoin came down, then back up, but, starting around 3:00 pm Friday, right after the White House disappointed all but the noblest "hodlers", the price has been heading straight down, from $90,469 to its current level just above $83,000. Talk about "buy the rumor, sell the news." This was a textbook case.

As Money Daily has expressed confidently in the past, bitcoin is a con which will eventually become worthless.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 89.64; last week: 91.23

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 2/9: $2,886.10
Gold price 2/16: $2,893.70
Gold price 2/23: $2,949.60
Gold price 3/2: $2,867.30
Gold price 3/9: $2,917.70

Silver price 2/9: $32.19
Silver price 2/16: $32.65
Silver price 2/23: $32.83
Silver price 3/2: $31.43
Silver price 3/9: $32.55

Gold and silver both rebounded nicely this week. Gold remains the store of value by which all other things "should" be measured. Silver, thanks to over 150 years of de-monetization (from the Crime of 1873 to the present) has been relegated to being a poor step-sister, though it it still considered a monetary metal in most of the world and will eventually return to a realistic ratio with gold, though possibly not in the lifetimes of anybody alive today. That's just the reality of the fractional reserve fiat money regime under which we all suffer. Still, it's been a solid investment the past three to five years and will never be worthless, which is more than can be said of stocks and crypto.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	36.00	49.95	40.92	39.00
1 oz silver bar:	36.75	49.00	41.67	40.26
1 oz gold coin:	2,971.55	3,152.90	3,063.04	3,052.67
1 oz gold bar:	2,939.00	3,097.90	3,026.93	3,039.98

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was slightly lower on the week, falling to $40.46, a decline of 44 cents from the March 2nd price of $40.90 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

Considering the speed at which President Trump has acted to right what's wrong with America and the world, expect more disruptions for at least through the midterm elections, which are still 20 months in the future (November 2026). Short, and maybe even longer term, stocks don't appear to be the place to be.

Choose wisely.

At the Close, Friday, March 7, 2025:
Dow: 42,801.72, +222.64 (+0.52%)
NASDAQ: 18,196.22, +126.96 (+0.70%)
S&P 500: 5,770.20, +31.68 (+0.55%)
NYSE Composite: 19,573.06, +66.72 (+0.34%)

For the Week:
Dow: -1039.19 (-2.37%)
NASDAQ: -651.06 (-3.45%)
S&P 500: -183.30 (-3.10%)
NYSE Composite: -455.13 (-2.27%)
Dow Transports: -376.07 (2.35%)

February Non-farm Payrolls Add 151,000; Stocks Aiming for Worst Week of Year Amidst Trump Tariff Trauma

Thursday was another rough day for equity investors, the third of four this week, leaving the major averages looking at the worst weekly loss of the year.

Through Thursday's close, the Dow was down 1,261 points, or 2.88%. The NASDAQ ended Thursday with a week-to-date loss of 778 points (4.13%), yesterday edging into correction territory, down 10.43% from its all-time closing high of 20,173.89 on December 16. On the week, the S&P is lower by 216 points (3.63%).

Anxiety over a slew of issues including downsizing government, Ukraine, the Middle East, unemployment, the future of AI, tariffs, and the general economy have caused investors to seek safety in fixed income or stocks that are less exposed to shocks like utilities and some of the less-volatile value stocks on the Dow.

When the BLS released February Non-farm Payroll figures an hour before the open on Friday, stock futures had been relatively flat. Upon the announcement of 151,000 jobs added in February and the unemployment rate stable at 4.1%, futures bounced higher in kneejerk fashion, as they normally would, though the blip to the upside was very short-lived and quickly reversed course.

The BLS survey for February has to be taken with an ample dose of skepticism. Showing federal government employment falling by a mere 10,000 over the course of the month fails to take into account the more than 75,000 federal workers who took buyouts and will be paid through September. It also seems to have under-reported the number of layoffs generally in the D.C. metro area as DOGE has furloughed many more than 10,000 employees.

Additionally, the BLS report runs counter to Wednesday's ADP Private Payrolls figure of 77,000 jobs in February, which cited trade and transportation, health care and education, and information showing job losses. The BLS points to health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance as sectors showing job gains. Obviously, both surveys cannot be correct and the BLS has a history of being wrong.

No matter what Wall Street thinks of the jobs data, it appears to have become a back-burner issue for now. The economy, for what it's worth, seems to be limping along just fine through the turmoil of President Trump's fist 50 days in office (Tuesday, March 11), despite the obvious pressure on stocks.

The highly-touted (and severely overrated) BLS monthly jobs data isn't likely to move the needle much this time around. If anything, it appears to show the employment sector in fair shape, despite the obvious fractures in and around the nation's capital.

This jobs number is likely comparable to a McDonald's hamburger: unsatisfying, tasteless, and soon forgotten.

a half hour before the open, WTI crude oil has bounced off lows to just above $67/barrel. Gold and silver are steady, at $2,920 and $32.55, respectively.

At the Close, Thursday, March 6, 2025:
Dow: 42,579.08, -427.51 (-0.99%)
NASDAQ: 18,069.26, -483.48 (-2.61%)
S&P 500: 5,738.52, -104.11 (-1.78%)
NYSE Composite: 19,506.34, -248.23 (-1.26%)

Stock Futures Pointing Lower After Wednesday Snapback Rally; Oil Continues Slide; Recession Fears Growing.

Stocks staged an impressive rally Wednesday, bouncing back from two straight sessions to the downside to start the week. However, an hour prior to the opening bell Thursday, stock futures are sending ominous signals, with Dow futures down 450 points, NASDAQ futures off 350, and S&P futures off by 75 points.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 172,017 job cuts in February, the highest total for February since 2009. The firm, which produces monthly layoff figures every month just prior to the BLS' Non-farm Payroll announcement, saw nearly 62,000 layoffs or firings from government and another 32,000 at retail establishments. DOGE, the federal government's agency headed by Elon Musk tasked with elimination of waste, fraud, and abuse, is credited with the vast majority of the cuts.

Initial claims for unemployment fall in the most recent week, as reported Thursday morning, to 221,000, seasonally adjusted.

Wednesday's snapback rally may have been more of a buy-the-dip moment on what appeared to some to be oversold conditions. The general tone of the market seemed to point in the opposite direction, as stocks have struggled to hold gains since the start of the year, especially after President Trump's inauguration, January 20.

With the February NFP looking more and more like it may come in as a negative number on Friday, investors seem to be scurrying for cover. ADP's 77,000 job gains for the month were for private entities. Friday's NFP will include government layoffs and firings, which could be huge.

As the opening bell approaches, gold and silver have backed down a bit. Gold is trending around $2,910, while silver is holding steady above $32.50. WTI crude oil remains moribund, hitting a low of $65.37 Wednesday before bouncing back somewhat to just above $66/barrel.

Thursday's trade may be as volatile as the first two days of the week. There remains simply too much uncertainty for investors to make bold trades.

At the Close, Wednesday, March 5, 2024:
Dow: 43,006.59, +485.60 (+1.14%)
NASDAQ: 18,552.73, +267.57 (+1.46%)
S&P 500: 5,842.63, +64.48 (+1.12%)
NYSE Composite: 19,754.57, +259.02 (+1.33%)

Trump Tariffs Turn Markets Sideways and Lower; President Bashes Democrats in Joint Address; Oil Prices Crashing

President Trump put his promised tariffs in place on Tuesday, affecting Canada, Mexico, and China (20%, up from 10%) and chaos ensued.

Stocks initially sold off, then, as the day wore on and various reporting had Ukraine wanting to complete the mining deal that was scuttled on Friday and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick implying that Canada, Mexico, and Trump were willing to compromise on the 25% tariffs and reciprocation. Stocks headed to the upside.

In the final half hour, there was simply too great a supply of sellers. The NASDAQ sold off violently along with the S&P and the Dow. The experience was surreal and third-worldly. Between Trump, news leaks, and the algorithms that make 80-90% of Wall Street's trades, there was little certainty about anything.

The NASDAQ briefly entered correction ground, down more than 10% from highs made in November, 2024. From the lows to the highs, NASDAQ traversed 600 points through the day and, along with the S&P, has finished in the red seven of the last nine sessions, the Dow, five of the last eight.

Gains for the year have vanished, with the Dow holding up the best, down just 0.05%, while the S&P is off 1.76%, and the NASDAQ, 5.31%.

Banks and financials, particularly the largest ones - Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Citigroup (C) - were hardest hit, falling between four and six percent by the close. Even credit card issuers Discover (DFS) and Capital One (COF) were down 6.01% and 5.75% respectively, the pair in the midst of a $45 merger that's been approved by shareholders, though approval from the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency have yet to be issued.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average is already in correction, down more than 12% from November highs and is trading below its 200-day moving average. Tariffs, especially those concerning the countries of North America, would likely prove to be damaging to many in the transportation sector.

Tuesday night, President Trump took a victory lap in a nationally-televised address to a joint session of congress where he enumerated his administration's accomplishments, acknowledged the work of his newly-appointed cabinet and singled out select Americans as prime exemplars of his self-defined "Golden Age." Pointing out how the Democrats continue to oppose him and show zero support for the changes he is making was a nice touch. He also made clear that Joe Biden was the worst-ever American President.

Notably, the President did not mention any backing off on the tariffs, but actually pointed out more severe penalties toward other countries would be put into effect on April 2nd. He mentioned a note from Ukraine's President Zelensky indicating that the mining deal may be back on the table, though it was still uncertain and unsigned.

Private employers added 77,000 jobs in February according to ADP's monthly private sector jobs report, released Wednesday morning. According to their survey, hiring slowed to the smallest level of gains since July, 2024, with trade and transportation, health care and education, and information showing job losses. Small business employment also fell.

Since the ADP figures do not include government, with DOGE job eliminations running somewhere in the neighborhood of 70-120,000, not including the 75,000 who accepted buyouts and will be paid through September, Friday's Non-Farm payroll data from the BLS could very easily be a negative number and certainly not the last. That may cast a further pallor over the stock market and have other diverse effects on the economy. It's a wait-and-see scenario now on Wall Street.

Crude oil continued to price lower. WTI crude dropped to $67.81 by the close Tuesday the lowest level since the decline began more than six weeks ago (January 15, $78.71). It's down further Wednesday morning, to around $66.72.

Briefly, Ross Stores (ROST) forecast annual sales and profit below estimates on weaker demand in their fourth quarter release after the close Tuesday. Nordstrom posted better-than-expected earnings ahead of going private. Shares are modestly higher pre-market. Foot Locker (FL) is trading two percent higher after beating on EPS but missing on the revenue side. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is trading 9-10% lower after issuing weak guidance Wednesday morning.

Futures are close to flat-lining a half hour until the open. Gold is holding up at around $2,910 and silver pricing at $32.38 before the bell.

Still a lot of uncertainty to go around and stock markets generally don't like being in the dark.

At the Close, Tuesday, February 4, 2025:
Dow: 42,520.99, -670.25 (-1.55%)
NASDAQ: 18,285.16, -65.03 (-0.35%)
S&P 500: 5,778.15, -71.57 (-1.22%)
NYSE Composite: 19,495.55, -327.93 (-1.65%)

Stocks Slide Helped Along by Trump Tariff Narrative; Gold, Silver Rebounding; Oil Continues Lower

The week began on a very sour note as the major indices suffered another in a series of severe selloffs, this one resulting in the worst one-day drop for the S&P 500 so far in 2025.

The NASDAQ has ended lower six of the last eight sessions and close Monday right at its 200-day moving average thanks to a 120-point boost in the final 15 minutes of trading. On a year-to-date measure, only the Dow is positive for the year, clinging to gains of about 1.5%. The NASDAQ will likely test correction territory some time today. A 10 percent decline from its December 16 high (20,173.89) is 18,156.10.

For those still faithful to Dow Theory, the Dow Jones Transportation Average is already down 11.56% from its November high. The Industrials would have to hit a number below 40,512.64 in order to confirm a change in the primary trend, in this case, from bull to bear. That's still more than 2,500 points lower from Monday's close. 45,014.04 was the closing high on December 4 for the Industrial Average.

The damage to stocks has become palpable and undeniable. Conveniently, the pumpers, cheerleaders, and mainstream media pundits will be able to place blame for all of the stock market and the economy's woes squarely on President Trump and his newly-enacted policies, most prominent the efforts of Elon Musk's DOGE team to downsize the federal government and Trump's tariffs, which are being imposed as of Tuesday, today.

Trump's 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico are going into effect today. Duties on Chinese goods have been doubled, from 10% to 20%. In retaliatory fashion, China will impose additional 10%-15% tariffs on certain U.S. imports next week, and expanded export controls on U.S. companies. Canada has responded with immediate 25% tariffs on U.S. imports worth more than $20 billion, and will expand that to imports worth over $86 billion if Trump's tariffs remain in effect for 21 days. Mexico is also expected to announce retaliatory tariffs later today.

Making Trump the scape-goat for the bubble in stocks that had to be popped at some point provides an easy way out for Wall Street minions who have been keeping their fingers down on the BUY button since November, 2023, and, obviously, before that. Many stocks in the S&P 500 and the broader NASDAQ have been losing ground with revenue and profits below year prior levels while their share prices have gone up. Brokers and money managers, who have piled client money into passive, overpriced investments can, and will, blame tariffs and Trump.

Unemployment will be blamed on Trump and Musk, when the fact of the matter remains that the federal (and many state and local) government has been overloaded with loafers and make-work flunkies, many of whom have not had to report into their offices since the pandemic in 2020. While Trump and Musk do what's needed to restore sanity and economy to government spending, the mainstream media will vilify them both as nasty and uncaring.

The same goes for the general economy, which is expected to fall into recession this quarter if it hasn't been in one already. It will all be Trump's fault. Count on it.

Meanwhile, gold and silver have rebounded from last week's trouncing, with gold, which was as low as $2,845, and silver, which fell to $31.21, on Friday, have bounced back to $2,932 and $32.21 as of Tuesday morning.

There still seems to be no hope for WTI crude and the oil market in general. OPEC is lifting production quotas despite the obvious glut in the market. WTI fell to a low of $67.10 this morning. It's already in a bear market.

Stock futures are down across the board as the opening bell approaches. Dow: -110; NASDAQ: -85; S&P: -18.

Should be quite the show today and through Friday when the BLS announces February Non-farm payrolls.

At the Close, Monday, March 3, 2025:
Dow: 43,191.24, -649.67 (-1.48%)
NASDAQ: 18,350.19, -497.09 (-2.64%)
S&P 500: 5,849.72, -104.78 (-1.76%)
NYSE Composite: 19,823.48, -204.71 (-1.02%)