Money Daily

Sunday, June 8, 2025

WEEKEND WRAP: Silver Has Epic Week, Price at 13-Year High; Treasury Buys Back Bills and Notes; Stocks Higher; The Fed is Irrelevant

This was a week for giving up. President Trump gave up trying to end the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Elon Musk gave up trusting the government. HSBC gave up shorting silver, and, with Friday's BLS announcement of 139,000 jobs created in May, Wall Street whiners gave up on hopes of the Fed cutting interest rates ever again, or so it would seem, considering the ferocity of Friday's rally after the Non-farm payrolls announcement.

While the jobs number was a little better than expected, revisions tempered the "strong economy" meme somewhat as March was revised down by 65,000, from +185,000 to +120,000, and the change for April was revised down by 30,000, from +177,000 to +147,000.

Regrettably, the BLS did not give up lying and making up numbers, and so, up goes the stock market, Friday's gains accounting for almost all the week's upside on the Dow and more than half of the NASDAQ and S&P.

Stocks

The week was relatively uneventful. If, by being boring means stocks just go up on any good news headline or even headlines that appear to be positive, then the algorithms have found the winning formula.

Few companies of any importance will be reporting first quarter earnings this week. The focus in the week ahead will be on inflation data and trade developments, still in a state of flux. GameStop (GME) is Tuesday after the close along with Gitlab (GTLB). Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE) report after the close, Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

U.S. and Chinese officials are meeting in London on Monday, seeking to move forward on trade and tariff talks. They could become a comedy or a tragedy, given the diverse interests of the two parties. While the last round of discussions had resulted in a temporary truce, sentiment has recently become less conciliatory and more mendacious. Expect there to be some degree of dissent and disagreement. Trade negotiations between the world's two biggest economies are not going to be settled in weeks or even months. It will be yars before finalizing some of the details in the now "hot" trade war.

May readings for the consumer price index (CPI) and the producer price index (PPI) are on the economic calendar for Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
05/02/2025	4.38	4.36	4.34	4.33	4.41	4.26	4.00
05/09/2025	4.37	4.36	4.34	4.34	4.40	4.28	4.05
05/16/2025	4.37	4.36	4.34	4.37	4.42	4.30	4.13
05/23/2025	4.36	4.34	4.35	4.36	4.43	4.35	4.15
05/30/2025	4.33	4.35	4.35	4.36	4.39	4.36	4.11
06/06/2025	4.28	4.31	4.35	4.43	4.38	4.31	4.14

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
05/02/2025	3.83	3.82	3.92	4.11	4.33	4.81	4.79
05/09/2025	3.88	3.85	4.00	4.18	4.37	4.86	4.83
05/16/2025	3.98	3.95	4.06	4.24	4.43	4.92	4.89
05/23/2025	4.00	3.96	4.08	4.29	4.51	5.03	5.04
05/30/2025	3.89	3.87	3.96	4.18	4.41	4.93	4.92
06/06/2025	4.04	4.02	4.13	4.31	4.51	4.99	4.97

Yields on treasuries of longer maturities - 10s, 20s, 30s - are all elevated again as the world's "most liquid market" continues to show signs of stress, irrelevance, and old age. Spreads remained stretched, with 2s-10s at +47 and full spectrum blown out to +69. The treasury curve may be beginning to steepen, but, with the entire spread remaining less than a full percentage point, the ability for banks to make money remains challenging.

Just to add fuel to the entire government funding, fiat money fiasco fire, The U.S. Treasury last week bought back $10 billion of its own debt, designed to repurchase bills and notes maturing between July 15th, 2025 and May 31st, 2027, thus retiring them early and saving some interest expense. Secretary Bessent is apparently acting while the Fed refuses to budge, and will likely be repurchasing more of its own issuance, much like Wall Street firms buy back their own stock.

This movement brings up a couple of issues, namely, where is the Treasury getting the money to buy back its own debt, and, could this action be seen as a preliminary move to replace Federal Reserve Notes with government issued currency? The answer to the first question is compelling, since the government is deeply in debt and desperately needs to raise the debt ceiling, meaning that the money by which they're buying back debt is essentially borrowed funds. The answer to the second question is one only Secretary Bessent, President Trump and maybe a few select advisors can address, and they're not talking. If this pre-emptive move by the U.S. Treasury is indeed designed to finish off the Fed once and for all, there's certainly plenty of rooting on the financial sidelines for Bessent and whatever he's got up his sleeve.

There's a FOMC meeting in 10 days (June 17-18). BFD. The Federal Reserve has become about as useful in setting interest rates, keeping prices under control and employment positive as the U.S. government is at balancing budgets.

Their days of being the lender of last resort, moving markets, and influencing politics are waning, thus, what used to be market-moving events focused on Fed policy are being relegated to sideshows for Wall Street dinosaurs.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69

Oil/Gas
$64.77 was the closing price of WTI crude oil in New York on Friday. It's a joke and simply market mangling by those with vested interests in keeping rigs operational in the U.S. OPEC has already announced a series of production hikes designed to bring down the price of crude oil. Why would the Saudis want the price of their main product and engine of their economy to fall?

The Saudis don't like competition. The generally prevailing understanding is that shale drillers are not profitable with oil prices below $60, which is where they were a few weeks ago when OPEC first started flirting with the idea of flooding the market with crude. Pushback in oil futures is the expected response. Whether the market players can maintain control to such an extent remains to be seen. There's much more beneath the surface (please excuse the pun) in the oil market than meets the eye. Oil's going to be cheaper near term, and then maybe more expensive depending upon the degree to which President Trump and his economic team can lower the dollar in FX markets.

It's a complex game in which everybody wants to be a winner. It won't happen that way. There will be losers, but, at this juncture, who they are is a great unknown.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.09, down three cents from last week, even as the price of crude oil is rising.

The highest prices in the country remained California's prize, at $4.65, down another nine cents on the week. Mississippi retained the low spot at $2.59, five cents down from a week ago. Oklahoma comes in at $2.64, Louisiana at $2.68, Tennessee and South Carolina, $2.69, and Alabama and Arkansas, $2.70. Georgia is higher than the rest of the Southeast, at $2.82, while Florida pays a premium at the pump, $3.06.

The Northeast continues to be led by Pennsylvania ($3.20), down four cents on the week. New England and East coast states all range between $2.87 (New Hampshire), $2.88 (Delaware) and $3.05 (New York). Prices remained relatively stable throughout the region.

Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.32), the price down four cents from last week and down significantly since late winter, early spring. Kentucky is the lowest in the region, at $2.80, followed by Kansas and South Dakota ($2.86). Indiana drivers are paying $3.00, down another eight cents this week and 23 cents from two weeks back. Similarly, Michigan's prices bumped back up to $3.16 after falling to $3.07 last week. The rest of the Midwest ranges from $2.89 (North Dakota) to $3.01 (Ohio).

Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, down four cents from last week, at $4.35. Oregon ($3.92) was lower this week, along with Nevada ($3.76). Arizona ($3.27) is still priced at a premium to neighboring New Mexico, a relative bargain, more than 50 cents cheaper, at $2.75. Idaho and neighboring Utah were the most stable, at $3.25 and $3.23, respectively.

Sub-$3.00 gas is found in seven more states this week than last, with 30 under the line, Colorado being the latest to fall under $3.00, and Wyoming, Ohio, and Indiana close to taking the dive. Lower gas prices for American drivers are becoming a reality with now 3/5ths of the states below $3.00.

Bitcoin

This week: $105,777.50
Last week: $103,968.10
2 weeks ago: $107,017.20
6 months ago: $99,438.46
One year ago: $69,633.42
Five years ago: $9,004.80

Nobody knows what caused Thursday night's rout that took bitcoin down more than $4,000, but it was just as quickly reversed Friday. Who cares? Wall Street's favorite slush fund will continue to trudge along, probably higher, until the whales decide to convert to cash, or the Ponzi is exposed.

On the other hand, the California Assembly unanimously approved a measure to allow payment of taxes and other state fees in crypto-currencies. One has to figure, if crypto is going to be accepted for payment in the land of make-believe, then it can't be any fu--ing good. While states with common sense are passing bills making gold and silver legal tender, the loonies on the coast are going all in on crypto. Expect the morons in Washington and Oregon to follow suit.

The highly-touted GENIUS Act is no nearer a full Senate vote than at any time in recent memory. Senators have lobbed an additional 82 amendments at the bill, leaving it in a legislative tug-of-war. Each of the amendments should be debated and voted upon before the entire package moves forward.

Once again, the U.S. government shows its true colors, engaging in gas-lighting and sleight-of-hand rather than doing any actual work. The GENIUS Act, sponsored by Senator Cynthia Loomis (which sounds a lot like "looney") may end up back in committee as the Senate tackles the real issue of how best to loot taxpayers with the big, beautiful continuing resolution that will add more than $2 trillion to the U.S. debt load annually for the next 10 years.

Government obsession with crypto-currencies underscores their absolute inability to make sensible financial decisions. Since the counterfeit fiat currency known as the U.S. dollar is destined to be inflated to oblivion, what better way to control the masses than with digital, programmable currencies? These people - otherwise acknowledged as "elected officials" are no doubt the greatest threat to the peaceful continuation of the United States of America as a rational entity.

Yeah, let's replace cash with crypto. Sure, that should work out just fine. Idiots.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 92.19; last week: 100.15

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 5/9: $3,329.10
Gold price 5/16: $3,205.30
Gold price 5/23: $3,357.70
Gold price 5/30: $3,313.10
Gold price 6/6: $3,331.00

Silver price 5/9: $32.88
Silver price 5/16: $32.43
Silver price 5/23: $33.64
Silver price 5/30: $33.08
Silver price 6/6: $36.13

It isn't often that the price of silver rises by more than $3 in a week. The move began in earnest on Monday, when silver rose to just below $35 ($34.93) on the COMEX before being beaten back down to a low of $34.21. For the next two days, it languished alongside gold, but was still gaining, almost imperceptibly.

It wasn't until Thursday that buyers on the Shanghai Exchange began to emerge (or shorts finally capitulated), sending the price over $35. By the time stock markets were opening in New York, the price was already over $36, the long-standing stranglehold at $35 taken out in one hue upside rush.

The usual insiders responded as they usually do, sending the price back into the high $35s, though the effort appeared to be just one last attempt to hold the line. Once again, overseas buyers took control overnight into Friday, pushing to another 13-year high at $36.39, managing to hold above $36 into the weekend.

Michael Lynch offers perspective on silver's sudden price surge this week.

There may be some connection to tariffs involved in silver's sudden price hike, though, as is usually the case, it's speculative. Some of the comments in Lynch's substack, linked above, seem to indicate that China's hoarding and price suppression may be changing due to Trump's insistence on tariffing the world into submission. For its part, China may see no good reason to keep silver prices down if the U.S. government is going to slap tariffs on solar panels, electronics, and anything else that has a silver component.

This long-overdue price action in silver is likely to have legs if not sprout wings and fly in the face of all that is fiat, fake, and phony currency. Silver, discarded as a monetary metal by central bankers and governments, is still regarded as a medium of exchange by ordinary folks who keep a stash on hand in case of emergency. Because there's so much of it having been broken down into small denominations, because it was - not so long ago - actually used as money, and because the price suppression has been so successful over the past 150 years (roughly since the "Crime of '73") making it easily accessible to the unwashed masses, there is a lot of silver in many private hands around the world. Silver has been a winning investment for a long time, unless one's cost basis was formed during the blowout of 2010-11. While not quite on a par with gold, it is likely to do some catching up as the gold:silver ratio returns to more rational levels.

Proponents of precious metals like Mike Maloney, Andrew Maguire and many others believe that triple digit silver is not a far-fetched dream, but, rather, a mathematical probability given gold's recent and ongoing appreciation, and the apparent end of the debt-based slave currency model of fractional reserve banking with counterfeit currency.

Central bankers have been buying up gold hand over fist for the past decade, and some - particularly Russia and China - have been quietly accumulating silver, getting ahead of what appears to be a reordering of the global financial paradigm.

On top of the obvious uses for silver in solar panels, EVs, and electronics, militaries around the world use silver in munitions, especially advanced missile systems. If the silver price run is real, it might not be long before the industrial users begin making bulk purchass on the physical market, a condition that would likely result in a price explosion, making this past week look like just another fun day at Silver Lake.

Having government contractors, military procurements, electronics, solar, and EV manufacturers all seeking silver in quantity at the same time would send silver's price soaring past previous all-time highs and well beyond $50, $60, and $70.

While it may not happen as quickly as some might hope, there is little doubt that the stranglehold on silver is being unknotted and a return to sound money will - if not "officially", then at least colloquially and in so-called "black markets" - become preferable to inflating fiat currencies.

Money Daily has long held that a silver price explosion is a strong signal that fiat currencies are on their collective deathbeds, and could be a triggering event for global financial upheaval. It's time seems to be at hand.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	40.00	49.99	44.59	44.34
1 oz silver bar:	40.65	52.95	45.33	44.54
1 oz gold coin:	3,406.34	3,557.71	3,490.94	3,488.09
1 oz gold bar:	3,451.00	3,548.28	3,476.46	3,468.78

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose significantly through the week, to $44.70, a $3.11 cent gain from the June 1 price of $41.59 per troy ounce.

Prices in the Sunday eBay survey indicate that buying is still very brisk with premia remaining enhanced, due to the impression that the price of silver still has significant upside ahead. Buying of finished silver in small denominations above $40 and even $45 per ounce has become commonplace.

WEEKEND WRAP

Stocks will likely continue to be overvalued in dollar terms as the U.S. dollar continues to lose value as a reserve currency, being rapidly replaced by gold. What's worth watching is not the price of Nvidia or Amazon, but the prices of gold and silver, which tell a deeper, and much more impactful story.

Appearances can be misleading. President Trump and Elon Musk having a feud over the finances and direction of the government may be nothing more than extreme trolling by the two. Every left-wing journalist worth his or her deep-state vow of obedience has been predicting such a spat. Maybe Trump and Musk thought this would be a good time to feed them what they want with some misdirection, throwing off their enemies with subterfuge.

Bottom line is that nothing these days can be taken at face value, including pictures purporting to blown up Russian aircraft and the release of the dreaded "Epstein Files." There's much more than meets the eye going on behind the scenes in the Washington D.C. cesspool and much more to come.

There’s going to be a huge financial crisis and it’s going to be earth-shattering.

At the Close Friday, June 6, 2025:
Dow: 42,762.87, +443.13 (+1.05%)
NASDAQ: 19,529.95, +231.50 (+1.20%)
S&P 500: 6,000.36, +61.06 (+1.03%)
NYSE Composite: 20,045.36, +162.08 (+0.82%)

For the Week:
Dow: +492.80 (+1.17%)
NASDAQ: +416.18 (+2.18%)
S&P 500: +88.67 (+1.50%)
NYSE Composite: +261.55 (+1.32%)
Dow Transports: +190.93 (+1.30%)

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Friday, June 6, 2025

Non-Farm Payrolls Data Relieves Wall Street's Labor Market Concerns; Silver Continues Break-Out, Momentum Buiding

Thursday's extremely choppy trading left all of the major indices in the red, as market participants nervously awaited Friday's Non-farm Payroll report.

Friday morning's release allayed most fears of a slowing labor market, with the BLS announcing the following:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs.

The better-than-expected announcement sent stock futures soaring. Shortly after the release, Dow futures were up 290 points, NASDAQ futures exploded higher by 190, and S&P futures gained 48 points, suggesting a strong showing for stocks when cash markets open at 9:30 am ET.

Elsewhere, gold continued to be bid, holding above $3,380, but the bigger story was in silver, which posted its second 13-year high in as many days Friday morning, topping out at $36.42 on the COMEX. Silver, recently valued at the extreme in terms of gold, over 100:1, has long been seen as the lynchpin of price suppression in precious metals.

While gold has made substantial moves to record highs repeatedly over the past 18 months, silver has been seen as a laggard, though comparisons over longer-term periods show that silver has performed moderately-well, despite not breaking out to new highs. This immediate breakout suggests that silver will lead gold in price movement over the near term.

Silver's all time high of $49.95 was achieved back in 1980, when the Hunt Brothers - Nelson and Bunker - had attempted to corner the market. The second-highest record price was in April 2011, when it reached $47.94 per ounce. Many in the precious metals community expect silver to explode past both of those levels in dollar terms, though their patience has been wavering. Many silver stackers have abandoned hope, succumbing to the inevitable price suppression by known parties favoring fiat currencies over real money - gold and silver.

Any substantial movement in the price of silver could send shock waves through the financial system where everybody knows the era of fiat currencies is coming to an end.

Current narratives suggest that silver is an industrial metal only, despite its existence as a monetary metal over thousands of years. The cartel of central bankers that have thrived during the fiat era are cut from the very same cloth that first successfully de-monetized silver in 1873, in what is known in the precious metals community as the "Crime of '73."

Considering the precarious nature of fiat currencies - now the standard for all countries in the world - a re-emergence of gold, and especially silver, as accepted means of exchange and/or payment bodes ill for the debt-based currencies that have enriched bankers and corrupt politicians at the expense of working people.

Gold and silver's days are coming. Some attest that they are already here and their re-emergence as the predominant money in global markets is only one more financial crisis away.

At the Close, Thursday, June 5, 2025:
Dow: 42,319.74, -108.00 (-0.25%)
NASDAQ: 19,298.45, -162.04 (-0.83%)
S&P 500: 5,939.30, -31.51 (-0.53%)
NYSE Composite: 19,883.29, -4.04 (-0.02%)

Thursday, June 5, 2025

Silver Soars to 13-Year High; Unemployment Claims Rise in Advance of Friday's Non-Farm Payroll Data

Stocks bounced around in jerky, directionless trading Wednesday after ADP reported only 37,000 new private sector jobs were created in May. The result was a split decision with the NASDAQ and S&P posting gains while the Dow and NTSE Composite fell, though the S&P was barely ahead by less than a point at the close.

OnThursday morning, investors mulled over earnings releases by Victoria's Secret (VSCO), Land's End (LE), Toro (TTC), Duluth Trading Co. (DLTH), Ciena (CIEN), and Cracker Barrel (CBRL).

Land's End shares were trading up more than five percent in the pre-market after the company beat analyst estimates. Other than that, there were no major moves by companies reporting.

In another suggestion that the U.S. labor market may be stumbling, the government reported 247,000 people applied for unemployment benefits last week, the most in eight months. With Friday's Non-farm payroll numbers expected to show slim gains, stocks could actually sell off a little in anticipation of what some would consider bad news.

Stock futures are basically flat across the board. Gold and silver are both higher, with silver soaring right through the resistance level at $35, trading as high as $36.18 on the COMEX, the highest price in more than 13 years. Gold was seen as high as $3,426 Thursday morning.

The day prior to May Non-farm payroll data may be less-than-exciting for stock holders, but owners of silver and gold are relishing the continued price appreciation. Year-to-date, gold is up 28%, silver, up 23%, far outpacing stocks.

At the Close, Wednesday, June 4, 2025:
Dow: 42,427.74, -91.90 (-0.22%)
NASDAQ: 19,460.49, +61.53 (+0.32%)
S&P 500: 5,970.81, +0.44 (+0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 19,887.32, -25.06 (-0.13%)

Wednesday, June 4, 2025

Stocks Rally for No Reason Tuesday; Stock Futures, Bitcoin Slide Wednesday After ADP Reports Poor Jobs Mumbers for May

Tuesday's melt-up wasn't so much a rally as money needing a place to go. All of the major averages were higher, though there wasn't much in the way of news or data - other than a brightening jobs picture via the BLS JOLTS report, which, for obvious reasons, has to be taken with a great deal of skepticism.

According to ADP's May Employment Report, the U.S. added only 37,000 jobs in May, the lowest level since March 2023. All of the gains were by mid-sized businesses with 50-249 employees. All other-sized companies lost jobs, including small (1-49 employees), -13,000, mid-sized (250-499), -2,000, and large (500+), -3,000.

The ADP report for private firms often varies wildly from the monthly non-farm payroll report, which is the province of the BLS government bean-counters. Stock watchers are hopeful that jobs growth in the month of May will show up stronger in Friday's Non-farm Payroll report than ADP suggests.

The release of the report caused stock futures to lose all of the morning's gains, sending Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P futures into the red.

Earnings reports from Tuesday after the bell and Wednesday morning had some impact to futures' direction.

Late Wednesday, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) posted strong fiscal second quarter 2025 results and suggested that there were better earnings in the pipeline. Shares were up more than six percent prior to the opening bell.

Sportsman's Warehouse (SPWH) disappointed investors who thought they were getting a bargain at sub-$3 for shares of the company. The company missed on earnings and revenues, reporting a loss in the first quarter of 41 cents on revenues of $249.1 million. Share were seen lower by six percent Wednesday morning.

Crowdstrike (CRWD) also missed the mark, with shares down seven percent pre-market, just after hitting an all-time high. Its adjusted net income of $184.7 million, or 73 cents per share, fell from $196.8 million, or 79 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter, but beat estimates. The forecast was less encouraging, causing the stock to be sold.

Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares were down two to three percent as the company reported first quarter earnings, adjusted for one-time items, of 1.26 a share, beating the estimate of 1.21. Despite same store sales improving by 5.4% in the quarter, the company issued waffling guidance, saying it could mitigate some of the tariff issues, much like competitor, Family Dollar, expressed on Tuesday, but warned that second quarter adjusted earnings per share could be down as much as 45% to 50% year-over-year.

Bitcoin was also sliding, at $104,936.30.

Not to worry, futures are nearly flat-lining approaching the opening bell.

At the Close, Tuesday, June 3, 2025:
Dow: 42,519.64, +214.16 +(0.51%)
NASDAQ: 19,398.96, +156.34 (+0.81%)
S&P 500: 5,970.37, +34.43 (+0.58%)
NYSE Composite: 19,912.38, +77.60 (+0.39%)

Tuesday, June 3, 2025

Stocks Start June on Upside; Gold, Silver in Strong Advance; Crude Oil Sees Gains Despite OPEC Moves; Dollar General Soars

Stocks got off to a rocky start Monday but finished with gains across the board as the Wall Street horde bought the early dip and began positioning for the latter part of 2025.

Undaunted by the constantly-changing tariff landscape, stocks continued to move higher in May and appear to be committed to continuing that trend at the beginning of June.

Also on the move were gold and silver, the latter gaining more than five percent on the day, rising to $34.93 after closing last week at $33.08. Gold was up substantially, finishing at $3,414.60, though outpaced by silver, sending the gold:silver ratio back below 100 for now, a trend that should continue, as the ratio has been well out of its usual range since early April. Both metals retreated Tuesday morning, but continue to out-pace stocks year-to-date. Gold is up 28%, silver, 18%.

Crude oil also got a boost on Monday, even after OPEC announced another round of higher production quotas. The usual noise from financial news was that the gains - WTI moving from $60.79 on Friday to as high as $63.69 Monday - were due to increased tensions in the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict. More likely, trading hijinks accounted for most of the boost in prices.

Shares of discount retailer Dollar General (DG) soared more than nine percent in pre-market trading after the company reported EPS of $1.78 on net sales of $10.44 billion. Analysts had projected $1.47 and $10.26 billion, respectively. Revenue was up five percent from a year ago. EPS was up from $1.65 reported in the first quarter of 2024.

Dollar General also raised its full-year outlook to a range of $5.20 to $5.80, the company saying that tariff costs could be mitigated going forward.

As the markets prepare for the opening bell, futures suggest a flat start to the cash session. Dow futures are down 70 points. NASDAQ and S&P futures are essentially flat.

At the Close, Monday, June 2, 2025:
Dow: 42,305.48, +35.41 (+0.08%)
NASDAQ: 19,242.61, +128.85 (+0.67%)
S&P 500: 5,935.94, +24.25 (+0.41%)
NYSE Composite: 19,834.78, +50.97 (+0.26%)

Sunday, June 1, 2025

WEEKEND WRAP: Stocks Rebound to Close out May; June Jobs Report Uncoming; Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Bitcoin Slide

As short weeks go, this one, after Tuesday's mash-up rally on the hint of Europe fast-tracking tariff negotiations, was really dull. There wasn't anything exciting about Nvidia's earnings and Trump's "No more Mr. Nice Guy" truth tweet to China didn't elicit much more than a few yawns in the market.

Maybe there will be more action next week. The natives grow restless for new all-time highs.

Meanwhile, the race is on to see if U.S. debt can exceed $37 trillion before the next FOMC meeting concludes on June 18.

Stocks

Thanks to a huge bump to kick off the shortened week - Tuesday's gains comprising all of the upside for the week - stocks were able to take an extended break Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, simply gyrating along the flat-line.

Recall that Tuesday's awesome rally (Dow: +740.58 (+1.78%); NASDAQ: +461.96 (+2.47%); S&P 500: +118.72 (+2.05%); NYSE Composite: +295.04 (+1.51%)) came off the back of an announcement that the U.S. and Europe would "fast track" tariff negotiations. While that went over well, little attention was paid to the announcement on Friday that talks with China had "stalled" according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and that China had violated terms of the agreement (if there even was one) according to President Trump.

By the end of the day, Friday, stocks were little moved, essentially almost holding onto Tuesday's gains. The tweeting, tooting, algorithmic noise-making is growing a little thin. Stocks are past peak both in terms of earnings and appreciation. More and more companies have reported EPS lower than prior quarters or year-ago figures, and are masking their failures on tariff concerns and forward projections of dire consequences. Thus, there's some degree of cautionary holding, ignoring the obvious, awaiting the closure of the 90-day grace period afforded most countries by Trump (expiring somewhere around July 10), so as not to cause a panic and send stocks back to whence they came, which is precisely where they are likely to go, probably right after the July 4 holiday.

There are a host of thorny issues that have yet to be resolved. From Ukraine and Gaza to the gold in Fort Knox and mass deportations and/or government downsizing, to DOGE cuts and the "big, beautiful bill" there are enough potholes for even a vehicle as large as the presidential limo on which to flatten a few tires or twist an axle. The continuing resolution that passed the House a week ago is already a "NO" vote in the Senate among a large enough group of Republicans grandstanding over "balance" and "spending" to torpedo the process which was already going to take until August (wait, isn't that when all the legislators take a month off?).

Figure on last-minute drama through the entire month of September, as the Washington D.C. criminal cartel provides the usual edge-of-the-seat entertainment, avoiding a government shutdown, default, and constitutional crisis all at the same time, the clock ticking down like in a James Bond movie, saved by last-minute compromise by our heroes in congress.

Balderdash! The whole lot of them should be locked up. They couldn't balance a budget if you gave them an extra $2 trillion. Wait. They did. They spent it all and then some and plan to do it again this year. As Elon Musk - completely drained and exasperated at congress' cold reception to his hard work on reducing fraud, waste, and corruption - allegedly told CBS News (ya never know these days), "I think a bill can be big or it can be beautiful, but I don't know if it can be both."

The plates are still spinning over the Wall Street, D.C., Middle East three-ring circus, so there's an excellent chance that more tweets, toots, horns, bells, whistles, geegaws, whoop-de-doos, and fangdoozles will be supplied to keep the party going just a little bit longer. Dr. Seuss would be embarrassed. Those posing as economists or experts on CNBC, Bloomberg, or FOX Business are too stupid to notice the wheels have come off the clown car. After all, they're just along for the ride.

A few more companies are still reporting first quarter earnings, including:

Monday: (before open) Campbell's (CPB); (after close) Abivax (ABVX)

Tuesday: (before open) Signet Jewelers (SIG), Ollie's (OLLI), Dollar General (DG); (after close) Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Sportsman's Warehouse (SPWH), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Mama's Creations (MAMA)

Wednesday: (before open) Dollar Tree (DLTR), Genesco (GCO), VersaBank (VBNK), Thor Industries (THO); (after close) Five Below (FIVE), Verint (VINT), Tillys (TLYS), PVH (PVH)

Thursday: (before open) Victoria's Secret (VSCO), Land's End (LE), Toro (TTC), Duluth Trading Co. (DLTH), Ciena (CIEN), Cracker Barrel (CBRL); (after close) Zumiez (ZUMZ), Petco (WOOF), Lululemon (LULU), Broadcom (AVGO), Docusign (DOCU)

Friday: (before open) AMB Industries (ABM), Fuel Cell Energy (FCEL), Manchester United (MANU).

Of interest will be reports from Dollar General and Dollar Tree, both companies dealing with inflation pricing and tariff instability.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking at a conference in Washington, D.C. on Monday. Wednesday brings the monthly ADP private employment report and jobs cuts data from Challenger, Gray, and Christmas. Friday's May Non-Farm Payroll will provide more insight into the U.S. employment picture.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
04/25/2025	4.34	4.37	4.36	4.32	4.32	4.22	3.95
05/02/2025	4.38	4.36	4.34	4.33	4.41	4.26	4.00
05/09/2025	4.37	4.36	4.34	4.34	4.40	4.28	4.05
05/16/2025	4.37	4.36	4.34	4.37	4.42	4.30	4.13
05/23/2025	4.36	4.34	4.35	4.36	4.43	4.35	4.15
05/30/2025	4.33	4.35	4.35	4.36	4.39	4.36	4.11

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
04/25/2025	3.74	3.76	3.88	4.06	4.29	4.75	4.74
05/02/2025	3.83	3.82	3.92	4.11	4.33	4.81	4.79
05/09/2025	3.88	3.85	4.00	4.18	4.37	4.86	4.83
05/16/2025	3.98	3.95	4.06	4.24	4.43	4.92	4.89
05/23/2025	4.00	3.96	4.08	4.29	4.51	5.03	5.04
05/30/2025	3.89	3.87	3.96	4.18	4.41	4.93	4.92

Treasuries with long maturities saw yields fall during the week, aided by markets being closed Monday and a sharp stock rally on Tuesday, though a 10 basis point drop on the 10-year yield is hardly convincing, ditto for the 12 basis points shed by the 30-year. It will take more than a few good auctions to keep the wolf from the door, so to speak, as the shedding of treasuries by foreign central banks is an ongoing process.

Entities outside the United States still need treasuries to conduct trade with the U.S. and others, so it's not as though Japan, China, and Eu members have completely shut down their buying operations. As far as a store of value as bank reserves, however, treasuries' days may be numbered as gold continues to be the choice for hard reserves, soon to become a Tier I asset on a global basis. Most of the planet is already in compliance. The U.S. is lagging, which is fomenting significant arbitrage with the gold price, especially by China. As July 1 approaches, it will not be a surprise if U.S. banks receive some special treatment, as in more time to become fully compliant, despite having a two-year "heads up" to implement the Basel III requirements.

Spreads continued to exhibit stress, with full spectrum down from +68 to +59, though still above normal range. 2s-10s have remained in a range between 45 and 55 basis points - leaning toward the high end - since the tariff trauma back in early April. This week's reading of +52 was the sixth time in the past eight weeks that spreads were +50 or higher, the apex being April 25, when the spread hit +55.

Spreads:

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week in New York trading at $60.79, down - for the second straight week - from the prior Friday reading of $61.76. The price of oil remains higher than fundamentals suggest, despite th price structure losing all momentum late on Thursday, dropping from the week's high of 63.04, in short order, to the week's low of $59.98 midday Friday. Upcoming and possibly greater production hikes by OPEC countries are forthcoming in June. Even with the "summer driving" season upon Europe and North America, oil prices appear to be fated for a return to the $50s, where they were less than a month ago, amidst the reversal of the tariff trauma.

Nothing spells economic trouble than falling oil and gas prices, signifying slack demand and weak economic underpinnings, traits shared by Europe, the U.S. U.K. nations and the majority of South America. Even without the disruptions from Trump's tariff back-and-forth, economies have been slowing over the past year, some longer, and the lingering effects of poor prior policy and increasing uncertainty has business and consumers in a state of suspended animation.

Asia is a bit of a different story, though much of it is interconnected with Western economies, so there's definitely a lag in certain industries, especially those involved in infrastructure and capital projects, where the real growth will eventually need to be originated. The financialization of every market - including crude oil and other base commodities - has warped the concept of price discovery to a point at which signals are crossed and little data is reliable. Even with markets tightly controlled by large, vested interests, the decline in oil and gains in precious metals are two sides of the same coin. The controllers are losing their joystick grips. Real economic forces are taking hold again, and not a moment too soon, though the true reckoning will still be delayed and denied for as long as possible. Policy-makers always figure that buying time is a reliable option, even when their time is up.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.12, down three cents from last week, and the lowest price in three weeks.

The high price remained the province of California at $4.74, down another seven cents on the week. Mississippi retained the low spot at $2.64. The only other state reporting a fuel price under $2.70 is Tennessee ($2.69). The remainder of the Southeastern states - including Oklahoma - range from Texas and Louisiana at $2.70 to the high end of North Carolina ($2.79) and Georgia ($2.84), all prices down a smidge from last week. Florida remained the outlier in the Southeast, at $3.08.

The Northeast continues to be led by Pennsylvania ($3.24), down a nickel. New England and East coast states all range between $2.88 (New Hampshire) and $3.07 (New York). Prices remained stable.

Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.36), the price down five cents from last week. Kentucky and Kansas share the lowest in the region, at $2.86, followed by Missouri ($2.87) and South Dakota ($2.88). Indiana drivers are paying $3.08, down 15 cents from last week. Similarly, Michigan's prices dropped to $3.07 from $3.22 last week. The rest of the Midwest ranges from $2.90 (Ohio) to $2.98 (Wisconsin, Minnesota), all down from last week.

Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, even with last week, at $4.39. Oregon ($3.96) was lower this week, along with Nevada ($3.81), down three cents. Arizona ($3.32) is still priced at a premium to neighboring New Mexico, a relative bargain at $2.90. Idaho and neighboring Utah were the most stable, at $3.27 and $3.25, respectively.

Sub-$3.00 gas is found in seven more states this week than last, with 27 under the line. Lower gas prices for American drivers are becoming a reality with more than half below $3.00. It is welcome relief.

Bitcoin

This week: $103,968.10
Last week: $107,017.20
2 weeks ago: $103,888.10
6 months ago: $96,490.37
One year ago: $67,654.30
Five years ago: $9,668.08

Bitcoin got punched in the gut this week, as the vaporware market sold off even as proxy stocks gained. Bitcoin got as high as $110,339 on Monday and continued a slow descent throughout the week, failing to even approach the record high of $111,681 from May 22. While some may consider it natural for crypto to react to a lack of news and consolidate, lower highs and lower lows do have a tendency to crimp speculation and erode confidence. It's a wonder that so many have fallen under the spell of crypto-madness, though the great awakening, when bitcoin crashes - as it always does - might signal its just reward of ultimately being disregarded as a fad, a fraud, or a fling.

The price of a bitcoin dropped to a low of $103,228 early Saturday, but has recovered to 103,968.10 as of Sunday morning.

The entire crypto space is chock-full of idiocy and noise. There's been no great adoption of crypto as a store of value or medium of exchange. It's all in the minds and the hype of the people inside the "industry," for lack of a better term. The fiction they've created would make Hollywood writers blush.

We keep hearing that the GENIUS Act is closer and closer to a full Senate vote though there always seems to be some kind of roadblock delaying consideration by the government clowns. While it's almost certain to pass, there are ongoing efforts to make substantial changes to the legislation before it heads back to the House and to President Trump's desk.

JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon - never a big fan of crypto in general - had an interesting take, saying, "We shouldn’t be stockpiling bitcoins. We know what we need. It’s not a mystery." He called for the prioritization of "guns, bullets, tanks, planes, drones, and rare earths." The mainstream media ought to eat that right up.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 100.15; last week: 99.81

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 5/2: $3,247.40
Gold price 5/9: $3,329.10
Gold price 5/16: $3,205.30
Gold price 5/23: $3,357.70
Gold price 5/30: $3,313.10

Silver price 5/2: $32.18
Silver price 5/9: $32.88
Silver price 5/16: $32.43
Silver price 5/23: $33.64
Silver price 5/30: $33.08

Gold and silver each took a little off the top as the metals sector consolidated, or, as the case may be, was forced back down as stocks rallied. It's a little bit like a game of Whack-a-Mole with the bait-and-switch operators. When stocks are doing well, that means, in simple terms, that complacency has triumphed over lingering FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) and that nobody from the Trump administration has either tweeted, truthed, or gone to the press with some kind-grabbing story, like "China talks aren't going well," which was mouthed by Treasury Secretary Bessent and repeated by President Trump (just for emphasis) in order to take stocks down a notch and offer some relief to precious metals.

The games being played by those of the international finance ilk are sick, perverted, and twisted. Desperate to keep the fallacy of fiat paper money afloat, insiders have resorted to banal, idiotic tactics, using Trump and Bessent as messenger pigeons for the daily grift. Most astute market watchers are seeing right through the fog of economic war and acting as appropriate. There is nothing that can halt the process of a dying fiat regime and the adoption of a new gold standard in world finance. BRICS countries continue to buy, Americans continue to wonder about th gold in Fort Knox and whether or not it will ever be audited, while banks are lining up to delay and defray the fateful event of July 1, when American banks - including the Fed - are supposed to toe the line on Basel III and declare their allocated gold holdings as Tier I assets.

There has been considerable pushback by non-compliant banks against the proposed BIS construct. However, it is worth noting that China, Russia, India, and likely many more BRICS-aligned nations are already in compliance and benefitting from U.S. reluctance and foot-dragging which is keeping the price of gold under wraps, for now.

It will not last long.

The coming quake from gold-holding central banks versus those on the other side of the fence will be monumental, though there may not be much in the way of surface disruption. But, like most quakes, underneath the exposed, neat exterior of global finance, there are already tremors and rumblings as a global reset seems to be imminent.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	34.25	49.95	39.97	39.99
1 oz silver bar:	39.60	49.95	43.63	42.78
1 oz gold coin:	3,370.60	3,550.20	3,458.55	3,446.83
1 oz gold bar:	3,437.88	3,504.64	3,460.04	3,451.65

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell slightly over the week, to $41.59, a 73 cent decline from the May 25 price of $42.32 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

As uneventful as the week was on the surface, there are strong undercurrents that should make the financial world a little more exciting in weeks and months ahead.

At the Close, Friday, May 30, 2025:
Dow: 42,270.07, +54.37 (+0.13%)
NASDAQ: 19,113.77, -62.13 (-0.32%)
S&P 500: 5,911.69, -0.48 (-0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 19,783.81, +39.91 (+0.20%)

For the Week:
Dow: +667.00 (+1.60%)
NASDAQ: +376.55 (+2.01%)
S&P 500: +108.87 (+1.88%)
NYSE Composite: +248.93 (+1.27%)
Dow Transports: +150.72 (+1.04%)

Friday, May 30, 2025

The Stock Market Is a Big Boy's Game, but Little Boys - and Girls - Can Play Too; It's Fun, and Easy!

With the final day of trading for the month just ahead, May turned out to be a fairly good month for stocks, with the Dow up 3.80%, the S&P ahead 6.16%, and the NASDAQ rocketing 9.91% higher. The prestigious Wall Street Journal blares that the S&P is on track for its best month since 2023 - wow! a whole two years!

The bulk of the gains were made on just two days, Monday, May 12 and Tuesday, the 27th (this week). That stocks would rip higher to start weeks two weeks apart reeks not only of systemic rot and corruption, it also might be considered by some to be fake and gay. Stocks continue to be vastly overvalued, but that doesn't matter to the horde of traders crowded into options, most of which expire on Fridays.

The game, which has driven more than a few former options players to the sidelines due to extraordinarily-high premiums, is fairly straightforward. Slick traders will select which options they wish to unload later in the week and bump those shares higher at the first opportunity, i.e., Monday, or, in the current case, the first trading session of the week, Tuesday. As expiry approaches, the choice is to either hold shares or sell them, but the options are unloaded. Ka-ching! Instant profit.

Beyond the algorithms which guide trading minute-by-minute, there are large players at major brokerages, family offices, and hedge funds playing their trade in the options market, the volume on which years ago exceeded that of the actual stock exchanges. If stocks are overvalued by multiples, the derivative options are extreme at the margin. While stocks can - and even these days, sometimes are - held for long periods, options have the unique feature of expiry, disappearing into the ether of the global financial structure, ephemeral, fleeting, and often insanely profitable.

Of course, there are multiple uses of stock, index, commodity options in a wide variety of flavors, from 0DTE (Zero days to expiry) to LEAPS (Long-term Equity AnticiPation Securities) which expire at much longer intervals than ordinary options (think years instead of months), and expert traders employ them to hedge risk and other purposes, but mostly, they're simply gambling, nothing more, which is why Wall Street is often referred to as a casino.

Options trading has become increasingly pervasive in recent years, taking advantage of the market's instability, or, volatility, which works in both directions. The preponderance of large traders in options markets makes it difficult, if not impossible, for the individual investor to profit in options. These large money-movers can exert tremendous force over individual issues, forcing option movement whichever ways they prefer. Of course, the game becomes more complex the more players involved. Winning at options, however, remains largely the province of brokerages and hedge funds.

Venturing away from the options sidetrack back into the actual market, the Shiller PE stands at 36.33, just shy of the October 2024 peak of 37.36, the third-highest levl ever. Analysts touting new all-time highs in stocks in the near term have completely disregarded fundamental analysis, and the recurring trend of earnings by major companies falling well short of year-ago measures. Focused merely on "beating the Street" estimates, the current crop of stock-pickers are more akin to momentum traders than actually finding value. Their "analysis" consists of measuring against any arbitrary number thrown out at the rubes in a manner similar to betting against the spread on a football or basketball game. "Sure, Ohio State will beat Rutgers, but will they cover the 27 points they're laying?"

This is yet another perversion of Wall Street that leads to false conclusions. Companies that beat Wall Street-generated earnings or revenue estimates but fall short of prior quarter or year-ago figures aren't actually growing at all. They're shrinking, often masked by stock buybacks that reduce the number of shares outstanding and produce better results based entirely on gaming the math as opposed to growing the business.

These are just a few of the reasons Fearless Rick and Money Daily are generally critical of stocks and stock markets. They're highly sophisticated and geared for professionals, though, admittedly, passive investors - because of the systemic gaming and perpetual yield-chasing that defines the Wall Street hustle - have profited handsomely. That's what happens in rigged environments. While the big players win big, smaller players can hitch a ride on the express train to riches. The one-percenters have grown extremely fat and happy. The small fry are still munching on the crumbs.

The lack of regulation and enforcement also helps stocks run higher and higher, seemingly every year. Nobody is going to be happy if stocks aren't growing, so government regulators - the few of them left - have become so adroit at shading their eyeballs they're practically blind to any and all abuse that occurs regularly in markets. It's why gold and silver stay down, oil stays up, and stocks keep flying higher, all without the least hint of collusion, misappropriation, or any other nefarious activity. They're all saints on Wall Street. Not a bad apple amongst them. Trust them.

In the current environment, being critical of the Wall Street hustle is about as useful - and even less popular - as shooting fish in a barrel. It's a fun, and very easy, activity, but eventually, holes shot through the barrel drain all the water, leaving dying, and eventually rotting, dead fish.

Will the day ever come that Wall Street has its reckoning, its date with destiny a la 1929, or 1987, or 2000, or 2008? It almost certainly will, but waiting it out on the sidelines isn't exactly a winning strategy. As long as the plates are spinning, there's money to be made and plenty of people to make it.

It's been 17 years since the wheels fell off in 2008, and, to some, it's nothing more than a fading bad memory or a fairy tale from some distant land long ago. Financial crises come and go, but stocks, well, they always go up, and they have, on steroids. Given the current environment, there's about as good a chance of a severe stock market correction or extended bear market as there is congress passing a balanced budget. Ha, ha. It'll never happen.

It's a party. Until it's not.

...and then there's social media.

After Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent complained to media that trade talks with China had "stalled", President Trump dumped futures this morning with the following comments:

Two weeks ago China was in grave economic danger!
The very high Tariffs I set made it virtually impossible for China to TRADE into the United States marketplace which is, by far, number one in the World.
We went, in effect, COLD TURKEY with China, and it was devastating for them.
Many factories closed and there was, to put it mildly, "civil unrest."
I saw what was happening and didn’t like it, for them, not for us. I made a FAST DEAL with China in order to save them from what I thought was going to be a very bad situation, and I didn’t want to see that happen.
Because of this deal, everything quickly stabilized and China got back to business as usual.
Everybody was happy! That is the good news!!!
The bad news is that China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!

Minutes later, the BEA released the Fed's BFF, the monthly Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), which fell to its lowest since April 2021 at +2.5%.

So, bad news, good news. Futures are tanking. This is how Americans "save." There has to be a better way.

At the Close, Thursday, May 29, 2024:
Dow: 42,215.73, +117.03 (+0.28%)
NASDAQ: 19,175.87, +74.93 (+0.39%)
S&P 500: 19,175.87, +74.93 (+0.39%)
NYSE Composite: 19,743.85, +64.91 (+0.33%)

Thursday, May 29, 2025

Prepare for Chaos as U.S. Trade Court Nullifies Trump Tariffs; 1Q GDP -0.2%; Nvidia Earnings Boost NASDAQ, S&P

(Editor's Note: When warranted - and often, even when not - publisher Fearless Rick pens these Money Daily posts in first person singular. Today is one of those occasions.)

It has become increasingly obvious that whatever President Donald A. Trump desires to do, as he is (so we thought) empowered as President of the United States, will be met with hard resistance by deep state forces working to undermine the constitutional government.

Late Wednesday, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that the president overstepped his authority by imposing reciprocal tariffs on a variety of nations with which the United States trades. Not only have these judges rules the tariffs void, but they ordered that all monies collected under their auspices be returned, an order that very well might bankrupt the government since it is already operating without headroom on the debt ceiling.

Initial reaction to the ruling, in addition to the usual glee over Nvidia earnings, was unsurprisingly positive for the Wall Street brat pack, sending stock futures flying higher overnight. Since then, the BEA issued their second estimate of first quarter GDP, showing it a little better than the advance estimate last month, at -0.2, as opposed to -0.3 initially projected.

What matters here is not that the market sees a less-severe tariff regime as positive, but that the president has been rendered powerless for all intents and purposes. So far, the government, via activist judges have thwarted every action taken by President Trump, denying the citizens of the mandates they voted for in November of last year.

I actually predicted this sort of behavior from the radical left deep state controllers back in January, 2024, when I published, in idleguy.com January 2024, my opinion piece, Joe Biden, Fall Guy, asserting, at the time, that Biden would lose to Trump or be dead or incapacitated, pitting the utterly useless and uninformed Kamala Harris against Trump, who would win handily, because the deep state knew full well that they could impose their will upon any and all executive operations, much as they did in the first go-round, when Trump won in 2016.

Since Trump, via dictates from various federal courts, cannot deport people, fire people, stop sending arms to Ukraine and Israel, reduce the size of government in any meaningful manner, or perform any of the duties without being sued, harangued by the press, and vilified by Democrats and members of his own party, there's certain to be reactions on Wall Street, in Washington, and among the citizenry, that cannot, at this time, be qualitatively or quantitatively measured or understood.

What we have is a country run by backgrounders who do as they please, the will of the people - as guaranteed in the constitution - be damned. Thus, any predictions or outlooks regarding the economy, the stock market or practically any other important metric, would be pure folly.

Prepare for chaos because that's what the deep state desires most.

Best of luck. You'll need it.

At the Close, Wednesday, May 28, 2025:
Dow: 42,098.70 -244.90 (-0.58%)
NASDAQ: 19,100.94, -98.26 (-0.51%)
S&P 500: 5,888.55, -32.99 (-0.56%)
NYSE Composite: 19,678.94, -150.96 (-0.76%)

Futures Point to Continuation of Tuesday's Monster Rally; Nvidia Earnings After the Close in Focus

It doesn't take much to enflame Wall Street's animal spirits - a tweet, a headline, Nvidia earnings - and ignite a stock market rally, and it wasn't much that led to Tuesday's massive gains, all but wiping out the losses from the previous week.

A headline that Europe wished to "fast-track" trade and tariff talks with the Trump administration greeted traders returning from the Memorial Day weekend, with the algorithms tuned up to maximum volume.

Adding to the euphoric early vibe was the Conference Board, the usually-stodgy gang reporting blowout numbers in consumer expectations. The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose 12.3 points in May to 98, up from April’s 85.7, its lowest reading since May 2020. Another measure, that of Americans’ short-term expectations for income, business conditions and the job market jumped 17.4 points to 72.8.

Investors went all in on stocks, disregarding last week's bond rout while looking ahead to Nvidia (NVDA) earnings after the bell Wednesday.

The Dow gained 740 points after losing more than 1,000 last week. The NASDAQ and S&P also shot higher and continued to rally throughout the short week's opening session. The NASDAQ finished just 8 points short of wiping out all of last week's losses.

Traders and speculators were keen on earnings from Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), and Macy's (M), all reporting first quarter results prior to the open Wednesday.

Dick's, which announced a buyout of Foot Locker last week, was all the rage, the stock jumping more than five percent in pre-market gambling. The buzz was even greater for clothing retailer, Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), the stock rocketing pre-market, up 27% as management is seen executing well on turnaround plans.

Enthusiasm was less pronounced for Macy's (M), with the stock only gaining about three percent prior to the bell. Macy's, once one of America's leading general merchandise retailers, has been trading below $20 per share for the past two years and is currently quoted at $12.

With Nbidia's earnings due out after the closing bell, Wednesday looks to be a continuation of the push back toward all-time highs.

Stock futures are moderately higher at 9:00 am ET. Dow: +13; S&P: +7.75; NASDAQ: +57.

At the Close, Tuesday, May 27, 2025:
Dow: 42,343.65, +740.58 (+1.78%)
NASDAQ: 19,199.16, +461.96 (+2.47%)
S&P 500: 5,921.54, +118.72 (+2.05%)
NYSE Composite: 19,829.89, +295.04 (+1.51%)

Sunday, May 25, 2025

WEEKEND WRAP: Stocks, Bonds Stumble as Gold, Silver, Bitcoin Ramp Higher; Low Gas Prices for Memorial Day Weekend

The week saw stocks reverse recent trands by losing ground, while fixed income, instead of providing a safe haven for those fleeing risk assets, also was hit, as treasury yields spiked higher.

The downgrade of U.S. debt by Moody's overhung all markets. Less reported was Moody's Monday downgrade of the banks which benefit from association with the U.S. government, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, and Wells Fargo. Moody's lowered deposit ratings, senior unsecured debt, and counter-party risk assessments for key subsidiaries and branches of the banks to Aa2 from Aa1.

Bitcoin and precious metals were the main beneficiaries of paper assets' decline, bitcoin hitting a record high above 111,000, gold topping $3,350 and silver up above $33.

Progress in foreign affairs stalled, with negotiations concerning Russia, Ukraine and Israel/Gaza and Iran seemingly going nowhere.

On the upside, President Trump's "big beautiful bill" passed the House by the slimmest of margins, one vote. Passage of the continuing resolution in the Senate is less assured, with several Republicans senators, including Kentucky's Rand Paul, either in opposition or expressing significant doubts. The bill, while it keeps Trump's 2017 tax cuts intact, increases defense and border security spending and is projected to add another $2 trillion in fiscal 2026 to the nation's already burgeoning debt, which will exceed $37 trillion by the middle of June.

Stocks

On Friday, after President Trump messaged on his social media platform, truth.com, that Europe would be facing a 50% tariff and Apple a 25% tariff on iPhones manufactured outside the United States, equity markets didn't exactly crash as futures had presaged, but they did not go green either after a week filled with nagging irritations from a variety of sources.

Tech stocks took a hit during the week, with semis down 4.5%. Banks were also on the receiving end of the selling, with the financial sector down 4.1%. Overall, the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ were each down more than two percent on the week. Dow Transports dropped the most, down 4.11%.

The week ahead will be highlighted by Nvidia (NVDA) earnings on Wednesday, Thursday's second estimate of U.S. Q1 GDP growth, and April core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - widely seen as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.

There are still companies reporting first quarter earnings, including:

Tuesday: (before open) AutoZone (AZO), Scotiabank (BNS); (after close) Semtech (SMTC), Box (BOX)

Wednesday: (before open) Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Macy's (M), Bank of Montreal (BMO); (after close) Nvidia (NVDA), Salesforce.com (CRM)

Thursday: (before open) Best Buy (BBY), Foot Locker (FL), Hormel Foods ((HRL), Burlington (BURL); (after close) Costco (COST), Dell (DELL), Gap Inc. (GAP), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)

Friday: (before open) Shoe Carnival (SCVL), Canopy Growth (CGC).

Of interest will be reports from Dick's Sporting Goods, and Foot Locker, the shoe retailer being acquired by Dick's.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
04/17/2025	4.36	4.35	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.22	3.99
04/25/2025	4.34	4.37	4.36	4.32	4.32	4.22	3.95
05/02/2025	4.38	4.36	4.34	4.33	4.41	4.26	4.00
05/09/2025	4.37	4.36	4.34	4.34	4.40	4.28	4.05
05/16/2025	4.37	4.36	4.34	4.37	4.42	4.30	4.13
05/23/2025	4.36	4.34	4.35	4.36	4.43	4.35	4.15

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
04/17/2025	3.81	3.82	3.95	4.13	4.34	4.82	4.80
04/25/2025	3.74	3.76	3.88	4.06	4.29	4.75	4.74
05/02/2025	3.83	3.82	3.92	4.11	4.33	4.81	4.79
05/09/2025	3.88	3.85	4.00	4.18	4.37	4.86	4.83
05/16/2025	3.98	3.95	4.06	4.24	4.43	4.92	4.89
05/23/2025	4.00	3.96	4.08	4.29	4.51	5.03	5.04

Rather than providing a backstop for falling equities, treasuries instead were sold off during the week, with interest rates rising the most on the longest durations. The 30-year bond gained a smashing 15 basis points (0.15%), approaching levels last seen in 2007. Similarly, the benchmark 10-year note was being shedded, gaining 8 basis points in yield over the course of the week.

With the 2-year note only up 0.02, the spread on 2s-10s widened to 51, as full spectrum (30-days out to 30-years) spread widened most of all, to +68, the widest since Money Daily began tracking, 18 months ago.

Spreads between junk (Baa) and High Yield corporate bonds and treasuries are still historically low, but bear watching. It appears that treasuries themselves are under assault, with the gap between them and corporates being squeezed, the inference being that treasuries themselves may no longer be considered "risk-free", with corporate high yields preferred.

Spreads:

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week in New York trading at $61.76, down from the prior Friday reading of $62.49. The price of oil remains higher than fundamentals suggest, and further production raises by OPEC countries may be forthcoming. As it is, this level is somewhat appealing to both producers and consumers, providing profit for the former and lower prices for the latter.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.15, down a couple of cents from last week, and the lowest price over a Memorial Day weekend since 2020.

The high price remained the province of California at $4.81, down seven cents on the week. Mississippi retained the low spot at $2.63. The only other state reporting a fuel price under $2.70 is Louisiana ($2.67). The remainder of the Southeastern states - including Oklahoma and Texas - range from Alabama at $2.71 and South Carolina at $2.72, to the high end of North Carolina ($2.84) and Georgia ($2.88). Florida remained above $3.00, at $3.04.

The Northeast continues to be led by Pennsylvania ($3.29). New England and East coast states all range between $2.89 (New Hampshire) and $3.08 (New York). Prices were pretty stable compared to the prior week.

Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.41), the price a nickel higher than last week. Kentucky is the lowest in the region, at $2.82, followed by Kansas and Missouri ($2.89). Indiana drivers are paying $3.23. Similarly, Michigan's prices rose from $3.18 last week to $3.22 currently. The rest of the Midwest ranges from $2.90 (North Dakota) to $3.05 (Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota).

Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, eight cents higher than last week, at at $4.39. Oregon ($3.99) was higher this week, while Nevada ($3.84) was a nickel lower. Arizona ($3.35) is still priced at a premium to neighboring New Mexico, a relative bargain at $2.86. Idaho and neighboring Utah were the most stable, at $3.25 and $3.23, respectively.

Sub-$3.00 gas is found in one fewer state this week than last, with just 20 hitting the mark. Prospects of lower gas prices for American drivers remain hopeful.

Bitcoin

This week: $107,017.20
Last week: $103,888.10
2 weeks ago: $104,416.70
6 months ago: $94,322.04
One year ago: $67,914.83
Five years ago: $9,669.13

Bitcoin ramped above $111,000 during the week, setting yet another record high. The response by bitcoin to trouble in risk assets (stocks) and fixed income paper (treasuries and corporate bonds) was echoed by similar moves in precious metals. In some people's minds, bitcoin is as good a safe haven as gold and silver, the split being somewhat generational, with Boomers preferring the metals and GenX and GenZ types going with crypto. Millennials are seemingly split between the two.

On Wednesday, May 21, a motion to proceed passed in the U.S. Senate, 69-31, moving the GENIUS Act closer to a vote on final passage, which is expected following Congress’ Memorial Day recess. The vote clears the way for the legislation to move to full debate on the Senate floor. The bill would place safeguards and regulations on stablecoins and is being promoted as a positive development for U.S. dollar interests.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 99.81; last week: 98.84

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 4/27: $3,330.20
Gold price 5/2: $3,247.40
Gold price 5/9: $3,329.10
Gold price 5/16: $3,205.30
Gold price 5/23: $3,357.70

Silver price 4/27: $33.34
Silver price 5/2: $32.18
Silver price 5/9: $32.88
Silver price 5/16: $32.43
Silver price 5/23: $33.64

Gold and silver each rebounded sharply as risk appeared to be re-emerging. Between trade issues, the U.S. budgetary issues of excessive debt and runaway spending, and geo-politics (Ukraine, Middle East), precious metals are increasingly seen as safe havens. With Japan's 30, 40, and 50-year bonds at historic highs (over 3%) and U.S. treasuries being increasingly shunned (especially by BRICS-related central banks), gold, which will become a Tier-1 asset for U.S. banks in a little more than a month (July 1), seems a natural fit.

Silver will respond, at some point, to the absurdly high gold:silver ratio which continues to hover around 100. Since gold continues to rise, it could be quite some time before the silver rally ensues, though, considering the extreme price suppression and volatility in all markets, silver might take off unexpectedly. It's difficult to get a good reading on timing for silver, since the GSR has almost never been this high. The optimal approach would be to buy both, with slight favoritism toward silver.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	37.00	45.97	41.68	41.73
1 oz silver bar:	39.00	47.00	43.18	42.67
1 oz gold coin:	3,493.70	3,610.22	3,551.51	3,537.64
1 oz gold bar:	3,465.00	3,576.02	3,528.19	3,527.22

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose rapidly through the week, to $42.32, a $2.37 gain from the May 18 price of $39.95 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

As we honor our fallen veterans this Memorial Day weekend, bearing witness to the freedoms they supposedly died to protect, we, the living, should be inspired to do more while we can to return America to its former glory. The United States, while still considered a freedom-loving nation, has gradually ceded a host of individual rights to the power of the federal government, a trend, that, if continued, does not augur well for future generations.

At the Close, Friday, May 23, 2025:
Dow: 41,603.07, -256.02 (-0.61%)
NASDAQ: 18,737.21, -188.53 (-1.00%)
S&P 500: 5,802.82, -39.19 (-0.67%)
NYSE Composite: 19,534.84, -29.87 (-0.15%)

For the Week:
Dow: -1051.67 (-2.47%)
NASDAQ: -473.89 (-2.47%)
S&P 500: -155.56 (-2.61%)
NYSE Composite: -399.22 (-2.00%)
Dow Transports: -623.74 (-4.11%)

Friday, May 23, 2025

Wheels Are Coming Off as Stock Market Set to Tank; U.S. Government Debt Will Surpass $37 Trillion Before the Next FOMC Meeting

Gains on the major indices Thursday evaporated in the last half hour of trading, sending the S&P, Dow, and NYSE Composite tumbling into the red. Only the NASDAQ, because it is the biggest bubble in stock market history, remained positive, though it slid 125 points, giving up more than 2/3rds of its gains.

Through Thursday, stocks were on track for a losing week. The Dow is down 795 points (1.87%) for the week. The NASDAQ has dropped 285 points (1.49%), the S&P is off 116 (1.95%), and the NYSE Composite is down 369 points (1.85%).

Anybody who was thinking, "Well, that's OK. Stocks are back close to their all-time highs," and planning to spend the three-day weekend with friends and family (usually mutually-exclusive groups) might want to think again.

At about 7:40 am ET, President Trump posted a message on X or Truth.com saying that Apple would have to pay a 25% tariff on all iPhones made outside the United States. He also posted that starting June 1, the EU would have to pay a 50% tariff on all exports to the U.S., as trade talks have apparently broken down.

While these developments may be somewhat of a surprise, they're not the sole cause of futures falling off a cliff. Trump's tweets are merely cover for what's really causing what looks to be a watershed event on Friday. The real cause of the carnage about to take place is multi-faceted, and all of it is negative. Here's the short list:

Russia is not going to negotiate on a cease-fire or truce of any kind in Ukraine. It's over. Russia will continue to advance, taking Kiev, and then all of Western Ukraine.
The U.S. government is chock full of criminals. Senators and House representatives have all taken bribes and kickbacks from Ukraine, drug companies, and anyone else with a handful of cash. The U.S. congress has been looting the Treasury for decades.
Japan's nearly five decades of self-funding and self-loathing are about to end. The country is fully owned by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which has issued bonds in their fake, fiat currency, the yen, since 1982. Compared to the U.S. dollar, it's garbage. Compared to real money, gold and silver, it's about as useful as toilet paper. The Japanese economy is sunk.
Actual patriotic Americans - those who mostly voted for Trump - are outraged over a variety of issues. House members refused to make the cuts imposed by Elon Musk's DOGE team permanent. Federal court judges have thwarted every executive order that President Trump has issued. Food prices remain high. Gas prices are rigged. Americans, who rightfully understand the depth of corruption in Washington, D.C., state capitals and even local governments, have had enough and are beginning to take matters into their own hands. Some refuse to pay taxes. Many more are armed to the teeth, awaiting an actual uprising, an insurrection, against the corrupt federal government.
Gold and silver price suppression is beyond the pale. A gold:silver ratio over 100 was the last straw, exposing the scandalous price-rigging designed to keep the U.S. dollar afloat.
BRICS and other nations are shedding U.S. Treasuries, swapping out for gold, which will become a Tier 1 asset for American banks on July 1. The U.S. dollar, euro, and pound are close to being rejected and thrown into the dustbin of history along with all other failed fiat currencies.

That's only the beginning. Illegal immigration, blacks acting like savages are ignored by a controlled media which delivers propaganda rather than honest news reporting. Left-leaning journalists lied about the 2020 elections, Joe Biden's health, Trump's connection to Russia, COVID, and much, much more.

The wheels are coming off the wagon, folks. Your three-day Memorial Day weekend is going to be ruined by a stock market crash. Even if it doesn't materialize today, it will. Everything connected to Wall Street, finance, and your life savings is being unraveled. Those in power, at the Federal Reserve and in government, know that the current trajectory is unsustainable. It's about to come apart at the seams.

With markets about to open Friday, stock futures remain depressed. Dow futures: -525; NASDAQ futures: -380; S&P futures: -82.

The United States government creates just less than $5 billion in new debt per day (realistically, it's about $4.76 billion). You can check it on the US Debt Clock, which is a fairly accurate, real-time run. It's kind of mesmerizing, so it's not advisable to watch the spinning numbers for maore than a few minutes at a time.

Those wishing to estimate when the U.S. government will hit a specific target, say, $37 trillion or $40 trillion, can do the math on a simple calculator. $4.76 billion a day adds up to somewhere in the range of $145-148 billion in your typical month, a little less for April, June, September, and November, which only have 30 days, and February, thankfully, only has 28 except in leap years.

So, when will the U.S. government be $37 trillion in debt? In about 24 or 25 days. Debt accumulation does not take weekends or holidays off; it just keeps running, as any thieving banker would so desire.

Today being the 23rd of May, the timeline for turning over another TRILLION would be Monday, June 16, right before the next Federal Reserve FOMC meeting (Tuesday-Wednesday, June 17-18). It would be some seriously sweet irony if the debt clock clicked over to $37 trillion when the FOMC policy announcement is made at 2:00 pm ET on Wednesday, and even better if it happened during Chairman Powell's press conference. Steve Liesman from CNBC could cough up a question as it ticks past the magic number, like, "Chairman Powell, the U.S. debt just surpassed $37 trillion. Is this a level of debt you consider sustainable?"

Of course, that would never happen. At least not in the near future. But, someday, somebody is going to question just how much debt is too much. Some economists believe it's already too much, becoming an increasingly troublesome burden when the Debt/GDP ratio surpassed 100%. That happened right around the end of 2012 according to the graph below.

The free-spending during the COVID era pushed the ratio to a record high of 132.81, and it appears the Fed got a little worried, and it started coming down. After all, everybody wants their money back, right? However, the way this is going, since the U.S. didn't implode at 100% Debt/GDP or 120%, we should be fine when it hits 130% or even 150%. Of course, by then, a gallon of gas will cost $6, bread will be $8 a loaf and an acceptable minimum wage will be about $25 an hour to flip burgers or paint houses.

Does anybody actually want to live like that?

Apparently, our overlords in Washington D.C. (Den of Criminals) think we can manage. So, print more! Who needs austerity and balanced budgets when you have magic computers that can conjure up billions in fresh dough in seconds?

The point is, if the U.S. government was a business, they'd be bankrupt. Since they're not, no bankruptcy. The Fed can just buy up any bonds they float out there if nobody else is interested. Ad infinitum.

On its current trajectory of increasing the debt by $100 billion every 21 days (see what I did there?), it will take another 630 days to reach $40 trillion, or, about 21 months. See you all back here in February, 2027. It ought to be a real kick.

For now, Happy Memorial Day.

At the Close, Thursday, May 22, 2025:
Dow: 41,859.09, -1.35 (-0.00%)
NASDAQ: 18,925.73, +53.09 (+0.28%)
S&P 500: 5,842.01, -2.60 (-0.04%)
NYSE Composite: 19,564.71, -43.10 (-0.22%)

Thursday, May 22, 2025

Markets Slide on Interest Rate Fear; House Moves Forward on Big, Beautiful Bill; Bitcoin Makes New High Above $111,000

You know markets are in trouble when the one thing that has no intrinsic value - bitcoin - is the only "asset" making gains. Bitcoin reached a record high above $111,000 earlier this morning.

It is at this point that sly Wall Street insiders are parking their money in bitcoin, awaiting either the next greater fool to buy their crypto at a higher price or until the latest market swoon occurs, ready to swoop in and snatch up stocks on the cheap.

The people who claim the stock market is nothing but a giant, rigged casino are on the right track.

You also know that when markets are troubled, gold and silver get sold off, as they are this morning. Gold is down 0.66%, at $3,393.10, and silver is off 2.20%, at $32.91. Six hours ago, an ounce of silver was worth a dollar more - $33.91. Why the sudden change? Could there be fraud afoot? It's laughable to believe anything about the precious metals markets on the COMEX are even remotely legitimate. The volume on contracts traded in a week represent more than is mined in a year.

Everybody plays along until they don't. When the tide goes out, the riggers at the CME, LBMA, COMEX, the Exchange Stabilization Fund (The ESF is an emergency reserve fund of the United States Treasury Department, normally used for foreign exchange intervention.), and the Federal Reserve will be found to be lacking in moral principle, and, worse, marketable collateral. The Fed is a counterfeiting operation and the ESF helps to ensure that nobody gets a fair shake against the nighty U.S. dollar.

Wednesday's steep slide midday was the result of rising interest rates due to a very poor auction of 20-year bonds. Market participants outside of the Fed itself and its primary dealers - Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and the rest of the usual suspects - aren't apparently in the mood to finance the U.S. federal government for the next 20 years at anything less than a five percent return. It's actually somewhat amazing that figure isn't much higher, like eight or 10 percent, given that the moondogs on Capitol Hill haven't the least bit of sense about cutting back on spending, reducing the deficit, or downsizing the government.

Moody's, about a decade too late, downgraded the U.S. government's rating from AAA to AA1, again, somewhat laughable. The government can't even pay its own bonds back. It rolls them over and adds the balance to the "national" debt. There's nothing national about the so-called national debt. It's the government's debt. American citizens actually owe nothing of that $37 trillion bag of notes, yet they'll be the ones paying the price for the government's waste, fraud and abuse. Americans pay every time they buy a loaf of bread, put gas in their car or take out a mortgage. Americans have been put through the wringer of inflation for so long even the slightest relief from their self-imposed debt slavery seems like a holiday.

Nothing practically any western government says or does matters these days. They're full of empty promises and horse manure. They have nothing more to offer than propaganda - "Russians are coming to rape your wives and eat your children" - and the economics of the welfare/warfare state. "We pay you to consume, so shut up while we blow up the rest of the world."

In less than two months, the 17th BRICS Summit will be held in Rio de Janiero, Brazil (July 6-7), which is, incidentally, less than a week after gold becomes a Tier-1 asset for not just central banks, but commercial banks as well. The BRICS are moving on without the Western nations. They don't need them. They don't need many more 10, 20, or 30-year treasury bonds, not anything close to the estimated $1.3-$1.7 trillion Treasury will be issuing over the next three quarters.

President Trump is walking a very fine line with his "big, beautiful budget." His core supporters backed him because they thought he would work toward downsizing the federal bureaucracy and balancing the budget. The omnibus bill currently moving through the halls of congress does neither. Instead the bill approves as much, if not more, spending than the last Biden budget, complete with a deficit of close to $2 trillion. At least the bill - which made it through the House by a single vote Wednesday night - extends the 2017 Trump tax cuts rather than eliminating them. How kind of our superiors!

The American people still don't like it much, and, so it seems, neither do bond investors.

Suitably, an hour before the equity markets open, stock futures are down and sinking deeper into the red.

Tough luck. This is as good as it's going to get.

At the Close, Wednesday, May 21, 2025:
Dow: 41,860.44, -816.80 (-1.91%)
NASDAQ: 18,872.64, -270.07 (-1.41%)
S&P 500: 5,844.61, -95.85 (-1.61%)
NYSE Composite: 19,607.80, -334.40 (-1.68%)

Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Sentiment Turns More Negative as Target Fails on EPS; Stocks Appear Ready for Another Trip Lower; Gold, Silver Recovering

This is a fluid situation.

Just when people begin to believe the worst is behind them - as in the recent market swoon, blamed on tariff fears rather than simple, obvious overvaluation - the next shoe will drop. The evidence is very clear based on recent developments, or, in the case of Ukraine and the Middle East, the lack of them.

The U.S. economy is currently at a standstill. Europe is pushing on a string while tilting over the edge of solvency into a bottomless abyss of taxes, cultural disorientation, and unfundable liabilities. Most countries in the European Union suffer from what Margaret Thatcher once expressed, "The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money."

European governments want to start borrowing like its wartime, especially Germany and France. The UK, scarcely outside the "union" is already on the same path. More money for weapons development to defeat the oncoming Russian horde that does not exist anywhere but in the minds of politicians means less for social programs and more into the pockets of corrupt leaders and their associates.

In the U.S., President Trump's attempts to right the ship of state before it capsizes is being thwarted on three sides: congress, mainstream media, and the courts are all opposed to allowing the administration to function as it should. For its own part, the success of President Trump's first few months is being overstated. Deportations number less than 100,000, if even that amount. NBC News reported that ICE deported 11,000 migrants in February and just over 12,300 in the first four weeks of March.

For those unfamiliar with mathematics, at a wildly optimistic rate of, let's say, 50,000 a month, it would take 20 months to deport 1,000,000 illegals. Being that there are more than 10 million - and some estimates say there are as many as 30 million - it would take 200 months, or, 16 years and nine months, at a rate of 50,000 a month to clear the deck of all 10 million. In other words, "ain't gonna happen."

Thus far, Trump's plan to "Make America Great Again" has been more rhetoric than reality. Those Middle East deals he helped craft between sheiks and emirs and titans of US technology companies was a quick study of corporatocracy in action, not to be confused with corporatism or even fascism, the term most often linked to the idea of combining the force of major corporations and the state. The term "fascism" has multiple meanings, depending on the source, making the expression by historian Ian Kershaw that "trying to define 'fascism' is like trying to nail jelly to the wall," appropriate.

In any case, seeing Trump traipsing around the Mideast with an entourage of tech billionaires sends somewhat the wrong message to ordinary American citizens, and possibly an even worse on to the rest of the world. It also plays right into the hands of the liberal mass who see Trump as a potential dictator and denier of people's rights. So far, big tech companies have benefitted the most from the Trump administration's policies, the middle and lower classes, not so much.

What can be said of President Trump is that at least he appears to be trying to fix decades of poor policy decisions made by bureaucrats and politicians in the federal government's labyrinthine bureaucracy. His combative, unorthodox methods are a welcome relief from the usual off-putting by the elected and unelected Washington elitists.

Meanwhile, his "big, beautiful bill," sometimes being referenced as "B3," might better be described as a "bollocks budget boondoggle," complete with trillion dollar excess for defense, a 65% increase in funding for Homeland Security, but also an extension of the tax cuts from 2017, which are st to expire, saving middle class Americans an average of $1,700 per year. There's a lot in the 1000-page bill, including changes to Medicaid requirements, welfare, energy policies and an increase to the SALT deduction for state taxes, up to possibly $40,000 from the current $10,000. Congress seems to be focused on this last provision, hoping to pass the bill by Memorial Day, which is a bit early this year, Monday, May 26. Time is running short if congress expects to achieve that goal.

In Australia, the newly-elected government is seriously considering legislation that amounts to taxation on unrealized capital gains, a proposal that looks like a test case for WEF world population control policies.

In earnings news, Target (TGT) reported Wednesday morning, with this:

First quarter SG&A* Expense and Operating Income included $593 million in pre-tax gains from the settlement of credit card interchange fee litigation.

First quarter GAAP EPS was $2.27 compared with $2.03 last year. Adjusted EPS1, which excludes the gains from litigation settlements, was $1.30.

*SG&A: Selling, General, and Administrative Expenses

The press release was focused on small positives, like better digital sales, a partnership with Kate Spade, and increased volume on Easter and Valentine's Day (duh!), rather than the ugly reality of a year-over-year 36% EPS decline.

Serious investors aren't buying it. Target stock is down more than six percent in pre-market trading.

Lowe's (LOW) reported this morning, citing net earnings of $1.6 billion and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.92 for the quarter ended May 2, 2025, compared to diluted EPS of $3.06 in the first quarter of 2024. Once again, though the EPS beat Wall Street estimates, it was lower than the previous year, a pattern seen all-too often over the past three quarters from a wide variety of publicly-traded companies.

Still, there are buyers for everything, though sentiment may be turning a bit bearish again. Lowe's shares are slightly positive prior to the open.

Gold was bid up over $3,300 and silver above $33 overnight, while WTI crude oil continues to flirt with higher prices, heading for $63 per barrel this morning. The price of crude is vastly overpriced. If anything, trading in oil the past few months has suggested a price for WTI crude should be closer to $45 than $70 and gas prices in the U.S. should be well below $3.00 nationally, while the average gallon of gas in America is currently at $3.16, according to Gas Buddy.

With markets due to open within minutes, futures are presaging a sizable drop on the bell. Dow futures are off 360, NASDAQ futures are -145, S&P futures down 38.

Beware the snake oil salespeople telling you the danger has passed. It appears to be just getting started.

At the Close, Tuesday, May 20, 2025:
Dow: 42,677.24, -114.83 (-0.27%)
NASDAQ: 19,142.71, -72.75 (-0.38%)
S&P 500: 5,940.46, -23.14 (-0.39%)
NYSE Composite: 19,942.21, -32.88 (-0.16%)

Markets Stall as Ukraine Talks Yield Nothing Substantive; President's Spending Bill Reconsidered in House; Home Depot Rises on Earnings Miss

Stocks took the path of least resistance on Monday, rising slightly in a dull, pointless session.

There was little excitement over President Trump's two-hour phone call with Russia's President Putin, even though both participants expressed positive sentiments. The fact of the matter is that neither of the three-sided coin that is the U.S., Russia, and the Ukraine have flipped their positions.

Russia maintains its positions from 2024, insisting negotiations focus on root causes, adding that the four partially-captured regions belong to Russia along with Crimea.

Contacted after the Trump-Putin call, Ukraine's de facto leader, Zelenskyy, reiterated that the besieged country would not cede territory to Russia.

For its part, the U.S. continues to fund Ukraine, deliver arms and provide intelligence.

Despite the happy talk, nothing has been accomplished in a series of false starts. No side seems capable of making concessions, which is perfectly understandable from the Russian angle, since they are winning the war on the ground. The conflict will likely continue until Russia accomplishes its well-defined goals and takes the four oblasts that are officially part of Russia, secures the Crimean peninsula and ousts Kiev's leadership.

Even though there seems to be a concerted effort toward a non-military solution, nothing of substance is being achieved. Russia has likely prepared a summer offensive, holding off presently until all sides retreat from negotiations. The war will continue as it serves all involved - plus most of Europe - politically.

To Wall Street, Ukraine is a back-burner issue. Developments have little, if any, impact.

In the Senate, the GENIUS Act, regulating stablecoins, has moved out of committee and towards a cloture vote by the full Senate. It would need a 60-vote majority to go to the floor for final passage. At this point, amendments can be considered. Being hailed as a necessary step to safeguard users of stablecoins (pegged to the U.S. dollar), there isn't much meat on the bones of the bill.

Essentially, stablecoin issuers will also be held to bank-like standards regarding anti money-laundering requirements, sanctions compliance, and requirements under the Bank Secrecy Act, so, nothing really new, other than the usual grandstanding by both parties, acting like the bill is necessary. Mostly, it allows congress to erect another means of moving money and another shield against scrutiny by the public in its endless looting of U.S. taxpayers.

Now that stocks have recovered all of the losses from the tariff trauma, the next leg higher figures to face some difficulty. It should be noted that all of the major indices had backed off from previous highs prior to April 2nd's tariff announcement. Trump has been and will be used by the press as a scapegoat for any further market declines, should any occur. Since it's the business of Wall Street to continue moving stock prices higher, there may not be the need for any excuses.

Case in point is this morning's earnings release from Home Depot (HD). The home-improvement retailer reported higher revenue - up 9.4% year over year. However, earnings per share declined nearly five percent to $3.45, missing the $3.59 estimate. Those results imply an unhealthy margin squeeze, taking in more money but producing less profit.

Pre-market, shares of Home Depot are rising, up more than two percent, proving, yet again, nothing matters in this market other than perception and the ability of big money to dominate trading. Ring-a-ding-ding.

With little else to base trading upon, expect some flattening out in Tuesday's session, possibly even losses. The 10-year treasury note yielded more than 4.5% for a brief period on Monday. As soon as it was tamped down below that level - around noon - stocks began to churn a little higher. Markets are stalled out until something breaks in one direction or the other. Algorithmic trading relying on headlines needs something more than the usual status quo to make headway.

An hour before the opening bell, futures are relatively flat. Dow futures are -17; S&P futures are -14; NASDAQ futures, -83.

Gold is moving higher, having found a base around $3,200. Silver is reacting as well, at $32.75 on the COMEX. WTI crude oil is holding steady at $62 per barrel, a level unlikely to hold for long as OPEC heads for production ramps in June.

U.S. government debt continues to grow unabated as the House attempts to move forward with the President's outline for fiscal 2026 spending plans, which include an estimated $1.5 trillion deficit. Nothing has changed except a few of the players; more noise-making from Capitol Hill forthcoming.

At the Close, Monday, May 19, 2025:
Dow: 42,792.07, +137.33 (+0.32%)
NASDAQ: 19,215.46, +4.36 (+0.02%)
S&P 500: 5,963.60, +5.22 (+0.09%)
NYSE Composite: 19,975.09, +41.03 (+0.21%)

Money Daily

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Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Sentiment Turns More Negative as Target Fails on EPS; Stocks Appear Ready for Another Trip Lower; Gold, Silver Recovering

Markets Stall as Ukraine Talks Yield Nothing Substantive; President's Spending Bill Reconsidered in House; Home Depot Rises on Earnings Miss

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