Bubble Keeps Getting Bigger; Wall Street Unfazed by August CPI Inflation Reading; Silver Tops All Assets, up 45% Year-to-Date

As usual, Wall Street simply ignored the August CPI reading released Thursday morning and moved higher.

Inflation was shown by the report to be higher than expected, with food and energy main contributors to higher prices. The annual rate of consumer inflation was shown to be 2.9%, nearly one full percentage point higher than the Fed's so-called "price stability" level of two percent. That reading may have put the kibosh on a half percent cut to the federal funds target rate at next week's FOMC meeting, a condition that would arguably be bad news for stocks.

Unfazed, Wall Street continued to believe the Fed would at least cut by 25 basis points, which was good enough to send the major indices to all-time highs. Wall Street doesn't care if a dozen eggs are $6.00, or if the median price of an existing residential home is upwards of $400,000 and unaffordable for most Americans. They don't care about the deteriorating conditions in most U.S. cities, homelessness, immigration, Ukraine, Gaza, assassinations of popular right-wing speakers, or the fact that unemployment is reaching critical levels. In fact, high unemployment, as is becoming apparent due to false reporting by the BLS and subsequent revisions, is actually cheered on by the trading cabal of brokerages and big banks.

The Federal Reserve, which has a dual mandate of stable prices and high levels of employment, is failing on both fronts. They are a complete failure, and Wall Street, enamored by the economists which set monetary policy at the Fed are completely OK with that. Wall Street cares about one thing and one thing only: making money on stocks. They could care less if people make or lose millions, so long as their internal trading units are profitable and they're perfectly willing to sell short while advising clients to buy.

While it's a nasty game, playing along with Wall Street can be very financially rewarding if one is aware of the conditions and capable of moving money from sectors to sector, stock to stock, and timing the market well. That's all well and good. It's just that the continued gains on stocks is getting a wee bit ridiculous.

The Shiller PE, or CAPE, stands at 39.58, the second highest ever, and will soon proceed past 40, heading for the record of 44.19 (Dec 1999) that was set at the height of the dotcom bubble. Since today's bubble is bigger, encompassing the financialization of tech, real estate, and the continuance of dollar debasement, it's likely to exceed that 199 level, and possibly by a lot. Clearly, there is no good reason to short this market. That would be tantamount to committing financial suicide.

The only thing to do is play along, reap profits and hope for the best. It's a self-reinforcing feedback loop, leading stocks to ever more extreme valuations. There's nothing to stop the parade higher. Someday, there will be a correction or a crash, but until then, everybody might as well party like it's 1999 because, in an economic sense, it is 1999, only to a greater degree.

So far this week, stocks have done well. Thursday's thrust on the Dow put it up solidly for the week, by 707 points. The NASDAQ is looking at another nice weekly performance. Through Thursday's close, the NASDAQ is up 342 points and the S&P is ahead by 106.

Futures are moderating, with the Dow futures down about 100 points, NASDAQ futures up 20 and S&P futures down four points.

Gold is maintaining a positive posture near record highs, hitting $3,695 overnight. Silver test $43 an ounce and is holding in the mid-$42 range. Silver is up a remarkable 45% year-to-date, so, obviously, stocks aren't the only game in town.

Party on!

At the Close, Thursday, September 11, 2024:
Dow: 46,108.00, +617.08 (+1.36%)
NASDAQ: 22,043.07, +157.01 (+0.72%)
S&P 500: 6,587.47, +55.43 (+0.85%)
NYSE Composite: 21,533.64, +239.07 (+1.12%)

CPI Actually Surprises, Up 0.4 in August and at 2.9% Annual; Food, Energy, Housing Leading Price Advances; Trump Upset; Powell in a Pickle

Stocks got a boost Wednesday from very tame August PPI numbers, sending stocks once more to record highs on the S&P and NASDAQ, though the Dow Industrials didn't stomach the news well, losing more than 200 points.

Overall, the trading was less-than-enthusiastic. Stocks were bid at the open and early in the session, but gradually lost momentum as the session progressed.

Thursday morning, investors were looking again to the BLS, this time for August CPI, expecting a result similar to that displayed by the PPI, i.e., lower inflation.

They didn't quite get it, as August inflation was higher than in August, with the annualized rate up to 2.9%, nowhere near the Fed's stated goal of 2.0%.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in August, as it did in July. Indexes that increased over the month include airline fares, used cars and trucks, apparel, and new vehicles. The indexes for medical care, recreation, and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in August.

The all items index rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ending August, after rising 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending July. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.1 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 0.2 percent for the 12 months ending August. The food index increased 3.2 percent over the last year.

This reading puts a bit of a crimp in Wall Street's plan for higher highs on a regular basis, cheaper money and lower borrowing costs for banks to make loans to corporations to buy back their own stock. WHile the betting for a 50 basis point cut next Wednesday (9/17) was in play after Wednesday's PPI came in at -0.1%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his brain trust on the FOMC might see fit to only cut a quarter point off the federal funds target rate, then follow wiht similar cuts at the November and December meetings. The scary employment figures, however, could make the FOMC lean toward a quicker remedy, as in a half-point decrease.

Powell will tap-dance his way through the press conference, suggesting that the August CPI might be a one-off, driven mostly by increases in the price of gas at the pump, but the data tells a different story. Food prices remain stubbornly high and continue to strip disposable income from what remains of the middle class. The core at 3.1% suggests that Trump's tariffs are fueling further inflation in imported goods, which is just about everything Americans buy.

Trump's messaging on inflation and the economy needs to be sharpened, to focus on re-shoring the industrial base, which is a barren wasteland. It's going to take more than a few months or even a few years to shift manufacturing back to American soil. Trump's insistence that inflation is going or gone is without any realistic in fact. Tariff price increases have only begun to show up. In six months, with higher prices, a lower federal funds rate, and more liquidity for banks to lend overnight to each other and to their corporate brethren, inflation will almost certainly reignite.

From the reaction Thursday morning to the CPI release by the stock futures, traders are focused more on CPI than the troubling employment picture. The Fed is stuck between the proverbial rock and hard place. Chairman Powell may have to twist some arms at the FOMC confab next week if he indeed intends to lower interest rates.

As the CPI numbers were announced, all stock futures traded straight down though they remained positive. Just before 9:00 am ET, Dow futures were up 40, NASDAQ Futures up 35, and S&P futures added seven points.

The main benefactor of the higher inflation suggested by CPI was gold, which bounded higher upon the data release. The price was still down from Wednesday, as the usual suspects pushed it back from record territory, but it stood at $3,675 about a half hour before the bell. Silver was relatively stable at $41.45 and WTI crude oil fell 82 cents to $62.27.

The sour news on CPI should lead to another nasty social media outburst from the Tweeter-in-Chief. Maybe firing the entire staff at BLS and the Fed can set matters straight toward the administration's "all's well" messaging.

At the Close, September 10, 2024:
Dow: 45,490.92, -220.42 (-0.48%)
NASDAQ: 21,886.06, +6.57 (+0.03%)
S&P 500: 6,532.04, +19.43 (+0.30%)
NYSE Composite: 21,294.57, +101.46 (+0.48%)

Inflation Is Under Control; August PPI Down 0.1%; Stocks Set for Rally on View that Fed Cuts 0.50% Next Week

On Tuesday, the BLS released their preliminary benchmark revision, revealing that from the period of April, 2024 though March, 2025, 911,000 fewer jobs than originally reported (and revised) had been created.

By Wednesday morning, it's already old news, though it bears a closer look, especially coming on the heels of the prior revision, from April, 2023 to March, 2024, of 818,000 fewer jobs than had been reported for that period.

Wall Street, always casual about numbers that might show the true state of the U.S. economy, shrugged off the data and sent the major indices to record closing highs. Do they - the major brokerages and banks that dominate trading in the stock market - know something the average investor is somehow missing?

It could be that Wall Street traders focus more on earnings from various companies, or that they're piled into a select few stocks unencumbered by employment data, or maybe they just make more money when stocks go up than when they do the opposite. The most likely explanation is that the reality of the employment situation, now revealed, will likely force the Fed's hand at next week's FOMC meeting, into a 50 basis point cut to the federal funds target rate, lowering it from 4.25-4.50% down to 3.75-4.00%.

Whatever it is, it appears that any indication that the U.S. economy isn't as powerful, dynamic, and exceptional as one is led to believe is essentially a great thing for stocks. This kind of thinking - that bad news is good - leads one to the conclusion that if Chicago, New York, and Los Angeles were nuked from outer space, the Fed would lower interest rates to something in the range of -5.25-5.50% (negative), so that companies would be paid to borrow. That way, the money the companies borrow to buy back more of their own stocks would come with an added bonus.

Free money! What could be better? Why not blow the whole country to smithereens and hand out $1 billion chacks to the remaining survivors?

As anyone with two brain cells to rub together understands, economics just doesn't work that way. Wall Street's job is to sell stocks to the general, unsuspecting public, so, in the event of bad news, even worse news, or outright horrible news, they just boost the prices a little more, hoping to lure in even more suckers. They're doing a bang-up job and have turned the stock market from a measuring instrument into a completely fake representation of the value of the associated companies on any given index. Sure enough, this works for them, and for the passive investors who see their retirement savings growing by leaps and bounds. Stocks are waaaaaaaay up. Everybody's happy... just like it was in 1929, or 1999, or 2007. We all know what happened next.

There is about a 100% probability that stocks will retreat from these lofty levels at some point, though it is also highly probable that stocks will rise significantly before then.

In light of the BLS revisions, a slew of economists are now expressing opinions stating that the U.S. has actually been in a recession since April of last year. That's revealing, because, since the revision prior to that was nearly as bad, shouldn't they have been saying the U.S. was in a recession as far back as April, 2023? It would stand to reason, but anybody in terms of economics business knows they couldn't say that because it might actually be true. In any case, this little bit of drama is yet another example of just how phony anything and everything having to do with Wall Street and Washington, D.C. really is.

There's so little truth to money and government these days it's a wonder the country still exists.

Maybe it actually doesn't.

This morning the world of economics and business will be treated to more fakery from the BLS, this time in the form of the August Producer Price Index (PPI).

Here's the statement from the July release, put out for public consumption on August 14:

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.9 percent in July. Prices for final demand services advanced 1.1 percent, and the index for final demand goods increased 0.7 percent. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended in July.

Those were pretty sobering numbers, so what happened on Wall Street?

Stocks actually declined after that piece of news for about a week, before rising well past the original level and onward to new all-time highs. The investing class apparently has about the same memory capacity as a gnat.

The PPI figures were released at 8:30 am ET.

The Producer Price Index for final demand edged down 0.1 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in July and 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August.

So, now, we can all believe the BLS. Inflation is under control. 50 basis points it will be.

As expected, stock futures took off like an Elon Musk rocketships to Mars.

As they say, "you can't make this stuff up." Unless you're the government, that is.

At the Close, Tuesday, September 9, 2025:
Dow: 45,711.34, +196.39 (+0.43%)
NASDAQ: 21,879.49, +80.79 (+0.37%)
S&P 500: 6,512.61, +17.46 (+0.27%)
NYSE Composite: 21,193.11, +19.47 (+0.09%)

Moribund Monday: More of the Same; Stocks Up, Gold, Silver Up; U.S. Debt to Be Vanished Into the Crypto Cloud with Stablecoins

There's an interesting video on India Times featuring Russian senior adviser to President Putin, Anton Kobyakov, suggesting that the U.S. is planning to eliminate its $37 trillion in government debt through sleight-of-hand via stablecoins such as Tether and Ripple. There are dozens of stablecoins, and more to come, including those issued by financial intermediary companies like Binance and PayPal.

While it's not clear exactly how the diminution of U.S. government debt would be accomplished, the idea is primarily to have stablecoins buy up most, if not all, of the U.S. debt issuance, then devalue the stablecoins. In essence, the stablecoins would default on the debt, leaving (mostly) American crypto-lovers the ultimate bag-holders, though the rest of the world is not necessarily out of the loop either.

This kind of scheme - the stuff of counterfeiters like those at the Federal Reserve - might actually work for the government, but the stablecoin holders would be left with nothing and no recourse.

The immediate query concerns where these stablecoins get their "money" to buy U.S. bills, notes, and bonds in the first place. The most probable answer would be the Federal Reserve itself, which is notable for conjuring such "money" out of thin air.

How it would work is actually a tricky wicket. The U.S. Treasury issues bonds to finance the government. They do it all the time, though these days, there aren't many takers for four percent 10-year notes, etc., so, stablecoins to the rescue. The Fed funds the stablecoins with enough money (that the Fed just creates out of thin air) to bid on the bonds at auction. Eventually, as the scheme unfolds, the stablecoins will be the only bidders, so they'll get the debt at easy-peasy rates, like one or two percent.

The yield doesn't really matter, since they are buying with essentially worthless paper and paying out in "stable-currency", if there even is such a thing. Americans and foreigners will be encouraged to convert their cash or bank balances into stablecoins, which will be accepted everywhere, given enough time to ramp up.

The government gets cash; the stablecoins collect interest. All well and good. The principal, however, is never to be returned. It stays as stablecoin, circulating around the global economy. In due time, the debt is paid, the stablecoins (principal) continuing to buy goods, services, drugs, guns, whatever. You have some, your neighbor has some, everybody has stablecoins.

However, because economics is a dismal science, prices for anything and everything continue to rise because the basis of the dollar - the stablecoin - is being "debased." Most people won't notice that the U.S. dollar has turned into toilet paper because it's the "new digital currency" which the media promotes as easy to use, simple, wonderful. Meanwhile the U.S. debt gets paid off, maybe (this is the tricky part), if congress decides to stop overspending on ghastly projects with which to line their own pockets.

Like everything else, there's a catch. Congress will never stop spending beyond their means. The standard of living for average Americans will decline, gradually. Most will hardly notice they're eating cat food instead of prime rib.

It's a wicked con and the president, who wants to make America "the crypto capital of the world" is 100% behind it. Fun for all. Kinda.

Meanwhile, back at the company store, COMEX gold futures peaked Monday at $3,685. Silver topped out at $42.34. WTI crude settled out around $61.79.

At the Close, Monday, September 8, 2025:
Dow: 45,514.95, +114.09 (+0.25%)
NASDAQ: 21,798.70, +98.31 (+0.45%)
S&P 500: 6,495.15, +13.65 (+0.21%)
NYSE Composite: 21,173.64, +37.59 (+0.18%)

WEEKEND WRAP: New World Order Favors Cooperation and Respect over Conflict and Demands; Gold, Silver Break Out; Crude Oil Drops

Stock markets around the world took a back seat in terms of importance this week to the events which unfolded on the last day of August and the first of September.

While the U.S. was taking a three-day holiday, the leaders of the Global South were meeting in Tianjin, China, at the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Highlighting the conference was the emergence of understanding and movement towards an end to the bickering over mountainous borders between China and India, and the embracing of the leaders of the three leading BRICS countries - Russia, China, and India - as Putin, Xi, and Modi made clear to the world that they were united in opposition to the sanctioning and brow-beating of the United States.

This development was downplayed by Western media, though the significance of the event was hardly overlooked by the most astute and sensible political and economic commentators. While the United States and Europe continued to feign ignorance to the security conditions outlined repeatedly by Russia in what will soon be post-war Ukraine and threaten further sanctions against countries trading with the Great Bear, the Global South was moving forward, with or without the West.

In the aftermath of the SCO, stocks in the U.S. and Europe wobbled ahead, though the action was hardly robust or even realistic. Especially in U.S. markets, stocks tumbled over the four-day trading week, only to be boosted by the usual combination of insider trading, corporate buybacks, the New York Fed's trading desk and some rumblings and grumblings from the PPT and ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund). Like it of not, the largest shareholders were forced to buy into stocks to keep the averages - and the appearance of prosperity - from breaking down.

By Friday, when the BLS announced that August job creation numbered a mere 22,000 and June was revised to the first negative number in five years, -13,000, the dire straits of the U.S. labor market, and by inference, the greater economy, were beginning to become clear. After an initial quick selloff, stocks stabilized and traded in a narrow range the remainder of the session. By the close of trading on Friday, the losses had been somewhat mitigated by the usual rigging mechanisms, but the deeper implications were evident.

Underpinning the narrow gains of the week were a dual track of upcoming events, with the September FOMC meeting on September 16-17 and the end of the fiscal year on September 30 providing a backdrop full of anticipation and apprehension. With weakness in the labor market evident, the betting that the Fed would cut 50 basis points was on the rise while the possibility of a government shutdown at month's end agitated an already-uneasy market.

Understanding that September is traditionally a poor month for investors and October historically the time for dramatic stock implosions, trading became muted, selective, distracted, and, particularly in the tech space, overcrowded. Market indications are leaning toward seeking safety in fixed income, and, significantly, precious metals.

Titanic dislocations are taking place beneath the superficial facade of financial news and advisories. Ignoring the fractures taking place in global trade comes with enormous risk.

Stocks

U.S. stocks continued catching down to the rest of the world over the course of the week. Stocks maintained a positive lean, though a topping out sequence may be developing. For the time being, a wait-and-see attitude prevails, though the narrative is wearing increasingly thin.

Recent earnings reports, which have been reduced to a trickle as the third quarter proceeds, have been a mixed bag of EPS beats, revenue near-misses, and forward guidance focused on tariff implications, though those have been tempered by the ongoing courtroom drama. That condition should find some resolution in the near future, though even if the Supreme Court finds agreement with the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, which ruled Trump's tariffs to be illegal at worst or beyond presidential authority at least, the president has other options to keep most of the tariffs in place.

On the agenda for the week ahead are some impactful economic calendar events and releases. Tuesday's NFIB Business Optimism Index will off er reading on general business sentiment, though Wednesday's August PPI and Thursday's CPI readings will dominate the data. Wednesday's weekly EIA figures will affect trading in crude and may have an impact on gas prices short term. The recent trend has seen inventories building with limited drawdowns.

Overall, the CPI and PPI readings will impress upon inflation expectations and influence the Fed's thinking on the federal funds target rate. Trading is likely to be choppy and slanted to the downside as there are few, if any, positive overtones.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
08/01/2025	4.49	4.46	4.44	4.35	4.30	4.16	3.87
08/08/2025	4.48	4.43	4.39	4.32	4.27	4.15	3.93
08/15/2025	4.48	4.42	4.35	4.30	4.22	4.12	3.93
08/22/2025	4.47	4.38	4.36	4.27	4.21	4.08	3.87
08/29/2025	4.41	4.34	4.30	4.23	4.17	4.01	3.83
09/05/2025	4.29	4.24	4.24	4.07	4.05	3.85	3.65

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
08/01/2025	3.69	3.67	3.77	3.97	4.23	4.79	4.81
08/08/2025	3.76	3.70	3.84	4.03	4.27	4.84	4.85
08/15/2025	3.75	3.73	3.85	4.07	4.33	4.91	4.92
08/22/2025	3.68	3.64	3.76	3.98	4.26	4.84	4.88
08/29/2025	3.59	3.58	3.68	3.92	4.23	4.86	4.92
09/05/2025	3.51	3.48	3.59	3.80	4.10	4.72	4.78

The yield curve remained partially inverted with the nexus (low point) at 2-and-3-year maturities. The general tendency at the long end was anticipatory of a Fed rate cut on September 17, the current betting favoring 25 basis points with 50 not entirely out of the equation.

Yield on the 10-year note was played down 13 basis points, with the 30-year bond dropping 14. The flight to treasuries was hardly reflected in stocks, which remained buoyant, though increasingly under pressure. Strength in the bond markets may be fleeting and/or fanciful. Treasuries and corporates are no more insulated from the ongoing global fracture than stocks or any other risk asset. Gold and silver stand out as safe havens, and should continue to strengthen as such short, medium, and longer term.

Notably, the Fed's influence continues to wane in the face of continued rhetorical attacks by the president and Treasury Secretary Bessent. Indeed, Chairman Powell, whose term expires in May, could be the last truly independent Fed chairman and possibly the last of any significant importance. In some circles, the administration's assault on the Fed and its various members, regional presidents, and governors is viewed as constructive institutional destruction with the implication of dissolving the central bank altogether the ultimate goal.

Though "ending the Fed" may be a fashionable sentiment, the overall ramifications of a shift from central bank currency creation to putting such power in the rightful hands of congress and the U.S. Treasury is rife with disruptive issues. Along with that, the current lean towards stablecoins and CBDCs becomes an even more frightening possibility, rendering U.S. currency as little more than imaginative counterfeiting with no backing or intrinsic value.

It is the continuance of 112 years of central bank fractional reserve money debasement that is central to any discussion of money and currency going forward. From an economic and security standpoint, these are not just interesting times, but ones fraught with danger and potential upheaval that extends beyond economies and into the social structure.

The economic rules that have guided the United States for more than a century are coming undone. One can only try to prepare for indefinite outcomes. Nothing is neither sacred nor unthinkable under these conditions.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week at $61.27, a far cry from the previous Friday New York close of $64.01. The fundamental nature of global supply and demand do not support price increases anywhere in the world. A return to the $50s is not only likely, but practically becoming a tradable probability.

Crude has hovered between correction and bear market since the January 15 peak of $78.71. Because oil is not subject to tariffs and most people, after basic necessities like rent, mortgage payments, and food, cannot afford excessive fuel purchases (demand destruction), a supply glut continues to build. With summer driving nearly at an end, and with it, a switch to winter fuels, prices should continue to fall in both WTI and Brent markets. There is simply too much oil meeting the needs of the declining West. A magnitude shift in flows to the East could cause serious price dislocation, i.e., much lower prices and looming, if not already underway, recessions in Europe and the United States.

Gas prices have leveled off over the past month and remain near the low end, but the national average of $3.19 on Sunday, as Gasbuddy.com reports, is something of a canard. Oil prices are undeniably down, but it is taking an inordinate amount of time for price to find a true level at the pump. The energy giants are squeezing every last nickel out of consumers, though it hardly amounts to much at all. It would not be surprising to see gas prices nationally drop below $3.00 by year's end and into the winter months of 2026. As a gauge for the general economy and precursor to recessions, nothing beats gas prices as an indicator. Lower prices imply not just slack demand, but margin compression for the likes of ExxonMobil, Chevron, et. al..

State-by-state numbers show California remaining at the top, up another few cents, at $4.61 per gallon. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Mississippi the cheapest, at $2.69, with Oklahoma close behind at $3.70. Oregon joined the state of Washington ($4.42) and California in the $4+ club, hitting $4.03 this week.

The Northeast and Midwest, out to Michigan and Illinois, are all $3.00-plus. An ark from Kentucky, Missouri, Kansas, Iowa, through to the Dakotas are all sub-$3, interrupted by Nebraska ($3.02). Minnesota and Michigan are both at $3.15. In between them, Wisconsin is $2.97.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in just 17 states, down three from last week, exclusively concentrated in the South and Midwest, most marginally higher. The entire Southeast, with the exception of Florida ($3.08) is under $3.00 a gallon. New Mexico abruptly popped to $3.02 with Arizona and Nevada straining at $3.53 and $3.83, respectively.

Bitcoin

This week: $111,129.79
Last week: $108,241.07
2 weeks ago: $114,536.60
6 months ago: $87.701.04
One year ago: $54,382.00
Five years ago: $10,446.00

Bitcoin continues to tread water between $107,000 and $112,000, continuing to bounce around in this support range. The fallacies associated with bitcoin and crypto in general are monumental. Eventually, this entire fallacy will be exposed as nothing better than three-card-monty with additional bells and whistles for the truly ignorant humans having put faith into it. Once Wall Street became enthralled by the lure of digital currency, the promise of peer-to-peer, trustless, anonymous financial transactions went out the door and it's never coming back.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 87.68; last week: 86.28

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 8/8: $3,458.20
Gold price 8/15: $3,381.70
Gold price 8/22: $3,417.20
Gold price 8/29: $3,516.10
Gold price 9/5: $3,639.80

Silver price 8/8: $38.51
Silver price 8/15: $38.02
Silver price 8/22: $39.39
Silver price 8/29: $40.75
Silver price 9/5: $41.51

Gold and silver prices were up for the third straight week. Gold continued to reach new all-time highs against the rapidly-debasing U.S. dollar. Silver cracked the $40 mark a week earlier and was trading above $42 on occasion in the most recent week.

Efforts at the COMEX and LBMA to keep precious metal prices contained have become less effective as the emergence of BRICS, the SCO and allied countries in Asia, Middle East, Africa, and even South America are reshaping the global paradigm into a bi-polar construct, rejecting the hegemonic tendencies of the United States, Europe, and the UK.

At some point, there will be either an East-West split or a concession by the West that the derivative-based pricing of precious metals is at an end. In consideration of the West's reluctance to yield to economic forces beyond their control, a split would seem to be the most likely outcome, upon which the Western bloc will become isolated from most of the rest of the world.

The prospect of gold-backed currencies continues to be a back-burner issue, though the pace at which geo-political developments are taking place suggests a global change before 2030, possibly within two to three years. Gold and silver have been regarded as money for centuries. It is only within the last 75-150 years that gold and silver have been relegated to second-class status. Silver began to be demonetized in the United States and Europe in 1873. The United States finally took silver coins out of circulation in 1965.

In August of 1971, then-president Richard M. Nixon "temporarily suspended" U.S. dollar redemption in gold. This temporary condition has now lasted 54 years and is seemingly nearing an end. Once gold and silver are recognized again as true, honest MONEY, the shockwaves will be felt worldwide. Anybody who doesn't understand just how rapidly the fiat monetary system is becoming extinct will be on the losing side of economic reality.

More and more mainstream brokerages and financial advisors are recommending allocations into gold. Though they are late to the party, there is still the possibility that gold and silver's rallies are only just beginning. In China, Russia, India, Turkey and many other countries, gold and silver are already regarded as true measures of wealth and have been, in most cases, for many long years. Americans, Europeans and other Western countries do not share the rich histories of gold and silver monetary reality. Thus, they are learning their lessons the hard way, through fiat currency debasement and an eventual shock to the economic systems they have maintained in the industrial epoch.

Activity by central banks - buying gold at a record pace - is soon to be joined by gold and silver mania of the public, already being expressed on physical platforms such as eBay, where prices have accelerated powerfully to the upside over the past month and particularly this past week.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	44.95	59.00	49.09	48.77
1 oz silver bar:	44.96	59.95	48.97	47.70
1 oz gold coin:	3,707.00	3,883.07	3,786.37	3,781.27
1 oz gold bar:	3,698.00	3,819.41	3,751.14	3,751.22

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rocketed to a new record high since Money Daily began recording in 2021, of $48.63, a gain of $1.75 from the August 31 price of $46.88 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

A new world order is commencing and it's not going to be one which favors the Western hegemonies of the United States and Europe, whose economies are deeply indebted and whose financial constructs are obviously failing. That much was made clear by the SCO conference this past week, embracing principles of cooperation and respect in international affairs. The heavy-handed, carrot-and-stick regime of the U.S., Europe, and UK-aligned nations is being tested by a more rational, reasonable system that favors understanding and fairness as opposed to oppression, fear, and war.

At the Close, Friday, September 5, 2025:
Dow: 45,400.86, -220.43 (-0.48%)
NASDAQ: 21,700.39, -7.30 (-0.03%)
S&P 500: 6,481.50, -20.58 (-0.32%)
NYSE Composite: 21,136.04, -21.89 (-0.10%)

For the Week:
Dow: -144.02 (-0.32%)
NASDAQ: +244.84 (+1.14%)
S&P 500: +21.24 (+0.33%)
NYSE Composite: -15.43 (-0.07%)
Dow Transports: -177.00 (-1.11%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

BLS Says August Job Gains Were 22,000; June Revised to -13,000, First Negative Print in Five Years; Fed May Cut 0.50%

Stocks made outsized gains on Thursday, possibly on the realization that if the Supreme Court rules in favor of the trade court that said Trump lacked the proper authority to impose sweeping tariffs on most countries in the world, the result could trigger a ruling that the U.S. must rebate all the tariffs collected, some $128 billion or more.

That would likely be net positive for not just the companies that paid the tariffs, such as large retailers like Walmart, Target and others, but could also result in lower prices for many imported goods. A ruling is expected by October 14, though chances are good that the nation's top court could rule well before that date. For now, the tariffs remain in place and the situation is fluid.

With the week drawing to a close, stocks could go either way on Friday, depending on how traders interpret the August Non-farm Payroll data, released by the BLS at 8:30 am ET.

Through Thursday, the Dow is ahead by just 76 points, the NASDAQ is up 252, and the S&P, which set another record close Thursday, is up 53 points.

The news from the BLS was sobering, if not a sad approximation of the current employment condition of the United States, showing a mere 22,000 jobs created in August, well below trend and expectations. June was revised from 27,000 to -13,000, marking the first negative print since 2020, at the height of the pandemic. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%, near historic lows.

Futures responded in a positive manner to the news. The twisted Wall Street logic posits that if the economy is weak, the Fed will likely raise rates at their next FOMC meeting in less than two weeks (Sept. 16-17), which would be good for stocks since companies would have lower carrying costs (interest) on borrowings for share repurchases (buybacks).

So, let's be straight about this. If people don't have jobs, the top 10% of American adults who own the majority of stocks in the U.S. will profit, exceedingly well. The top 1%, who don't need jobs, or more money, will do even better.

OK, got it. Super!

At the same time, on the BLS release, gold and silver leapt higher. The calculus for precious metals is a little bit more understandable than the Wall Street stock market take. If interest rates are lower, more people will be looking for alternatives to fixed income vehicles like treasuries or corporate bonds. Gold and silver, which have absolutely zero counter-party risk (unless you are in the habit of inviting known thieves into your home or anywhere near where you store your metals) and are time-tested stores of value over the short and long term.

The added bonus for precious metals is that they have been appreciating in value against all manner of fiat currencies, especially the Japanese yen, where the price of gold has tripled in the past three years. As it is, gold has essentially more than doubled in the U.S. and silver has doubled in less time, hitting a low below $20 in March, 2023. as of 9:00 am ET, both metals are up sharply. Gold hit a high of $3,643, silver, $41.92, both on the COMEX continuous contract.

An economy with no job growth is just dandy all around... well, except for working-class people, but, uh, who needs them? We have AI.

Trump will fire the new head of BLS (not sure who it really is, they keep changing so fast) in 3...2...1...

At the Close, Thursday, September 4, 2025:
Dow: 45,621.29, +350.06 (+0.77%)
NASDAQ: 21,707.69, +209.97 (+0.98%)
S&P 500: 6,502.08, +53.82 (+0.83%)
NYSE Composite: 21,157.93, +149.82 (+0.71%)

Wall Street Tape-Painting, Options Manipulation, Media Spin, and Government Data Offer a False Impression of U.S. Economy

As Western economies slide further into irrelevance due to belligerent government policies that ignore historical precedents and cannot fathom the emerging economies of Asia and beyond, expect stocks manipulation to become even more extreme than usual.

The effort to maintain a positive narrative includes stock prices that seldom decline, led by tech wunderkinds such as Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Apple and the rest of the "Magnificent Seven", and stocks selected by Wall Street brokerages and "whales" which control more then 80% of all trading through black pools, Zero-days-to-expiry (0DTEs) options, and other market-distorting vehicles.

Wednesday's trading was a perfect case in point. Just before 2:00 pm ET, the Dow Industrials were down more than 300 points, but, in the final two hours of trading, "buy the dip" investors - which are, in reality, market makers and mega-banks - saw fit to boost share prices of the 30 blue chips to a close down just 24 points, the final 200 points made up in the last half hour. The NYSE Composite saw a similar late-day rise, while the S&P 500 made almost all of its 32-point gain in the last half hour of the session. The NASDAQ, home to the tech darlings, was positive all day, but stitched on nearly an additional 100 points in the final 30 minutes.

There's very little about "the markets" - any market - that is real. Consider gold and silver's moves on Wednesday to be just another prime example of the lengths at which traders on the COMEX and CME will go to suppress the emergence of real money. Silver, squeezing the shorts, had rocketed to a new high of $42.19 on the COMEX continuous contract early in the day, but, overnight, magically, shed nearly a dollar, dropping as low as $41.29.

Gold reached a record high on Wednesday, topping out above $3,637, though it slipped back as low as $3,584, a 50-dollar-plus decline to satisfy the mendacious desires of the fiat money cabal.

Similar chart oddities have become commonplace. Individual stocks gain 10 to 20 percent in a day on a routine basis these days, defying logic and fundamental analysis in favor of quick profit turns by insiders and slick traders.

On top of the obvious end-of-day tape-painting, which has become a staple of U.S. stock markets, government data, from sources such as the BLS and Commerce Department, are wildly flawed, massaged by various qualifiers to produce data that is more palatable to the elites and fed like pablum to the masses. The American public is led to believe that stocks are golden, companies are robust money-printing machines and that their passive investments in retirement accounts can only go one way. Up.

As for the crypto fad, it's simply a trade, having no real value, based on theories and the belief that bitcoin, ethereum and the thousands of other alt-coins actually can be money. They can't, they won't, and the entire universe of hodlers and diamond-handed speculators will eventually be wiped out.

Meanwhile, back in the real world, the ADP Employment Report, which is not a government agency, released Thursday morning, showed an August gain of 54,000 jobs in the private sector, well below sustainability in the labor market and well below expectations. Wall Street will likely shrug it off as inconsequential, focusing on pricey stocks in the bubble economy.

It's a cruel world. Wall Street and government mouthpieces would have you believe that the U.S. is winning the war in Ukraine, Gaza is not genocide, the BRICS are out to get us, tariffs won't cause price inflation, and the streets of American big cities are paved in gold... well, paper gold, anyway.

The reality is, of course, nothing of the sort. It's all a dreamscape.

At the Close, Wednesday, September 3, 2025:
Dow: 45,271.23, -24.58 (-0.05%)
NASDAQ: 21,497.73, +218.10 (+1.02%)
S&P 500: 6,448.26, +32.72 (+0.51%)
NYSE Composite: 21,008.11, -36.76 (-0.17%)

Stocks Slide into September; China, Russia, India Pledge Cooperation at SCO; Advance De-Dollarization Agenda

Sputnik photo

Ediotr’s Note: Just as today’s missive was about to be published, an internet outage prevented that event. Luckily, it lasted a little over an hour before being restored. Sorry for the delay.

Take a good, long look at the photo above. It portrays the leaders of India and China, the two most populous nations on planet Earth, meeting to shake hands in a spirit of cooperation at the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) this past weekend in Tianjin, China.

It is the future.

Nowhere to be seen are any signs of American influence. Russia, though not present, stands in concert with these great nations. Russia supplies both countries with natural resources, particularly oil, as in energy. Energy to fuel industries, commerce, progress.

Because of its belligerent attitude, the United States will never be a part of the unity of purpose that emerges from the East, nor will Europe. The West sanctions and threatens. The East trades and cooperates. Therein lay the difference in culture that will translate into finance and prosperity. The United States is a failed empire with a failing currency, operated by elected leaders who have been busy raiding what's left of the loot. They'll get most of it, but it won't be satisfactory. The American people will get crumbs, crime, and crack-laced fentanyl, if they're lucky because the future belongs to Asia and the Global South.

Western leaders do not understand cooperation. They only understand brow-beating, fakery, theft, and skullduggery, and that's why they - and the populations of the USA and EU and the UK - are losing.

Americans, those that are smart enough and have the means, will escape the coming collapse, already well underway. The rest will be either cannon fodder or swept up in raids or terror or financial ruin. The only way Americans could have escaped such a fate was to have jettisoned the "leadership" many years ago, but, because Americans are lazy, stupid, and gullible, it never happened, and this is what they now have: a failing government, $37 trillion in debt, an economy running on AI fumes and broken promises, propagandized to the max, supposing that everything is just fine, as long as President Trump can deport the illegals and slap tariffs on everything that comes onto the shores.

Trump, the ultimate poseur, has been a massive disappointment and is likely to remain so. He hasn't fixed anything on the international stage, where work needs to be done. He's considered a buffoon by the likes of Putin, Xi, Modi, and Brazil's Lula. He can't get it done. He's too busy self-promoting and diving headlong into crypto.

An online poster said something to the effect that "when America loses reserve currency status, it's over." Well, that's already happened. Gold is now the reserve currency of the world and there's no going back. The almighty greenback, backed by nothing other than the full faith and credit of the United States (or the Federal Reserve, take your pick) is waning. Gold, and silver, are rising.

As congress returns from a month-long holiday, it has become apparent that a continuing resolution will be needed to avoid a US government shutdown on October 1st, as there is no way congress can realistically pass 12 spending bills by then as there are just 14 legislative days left before the new fiscal year (2026) begins. Maybe these elected representatives might have better spent their time crafting appropriate legislation and preparing an actual budget - something they haven't done for at least 30 years - than vacationing at their gated, beach-front mansions.

Treasury yields advanced on Wednesday, with the benchmark 30-year debt approaching five percent. Yields on UK 30-year bonds increased to 5.75%, already the highest since 1998, while Japan’s 20-year notes climbed to the highest in 25 years. The yield to maturity on Bloomberg’s global gauge of government bonds maturing in a decade or longer climbed to the highest level since July 2009. The bond market is signaling that demand for Western economies' debt is waning. BRICS, and countries aligned with them, no longer believe that Western nations are creditworthy.

Tuesday's trading was revealing, extending the drawdown in stocks from Friday. The three-day weekend had little effect on sentiment. The bear market has resumed. September is traditionally one of the worst months to own stocks.

With the opening bell less than half an hour away, stock futures are mixed but sliding lower. Dow futures are down 110; NASDAQ futures are up 150 in typical dead cat bounce style; S&P futures are ahead by 21 points.

Two companies that reported earnings before the bell are notable.

Macy's (M) beat earnings estimates, returning 41 cents adjusted vs. 18 cents expected. The company issued improved guidance sending shares 15% higher in pre-market trading. Rather amusing for a stock that's been traing in the low teens and is down 20% year-to-date.

On the flip side was Dollar Tree (DLTR), which posted adjusted per-share earnings of 77 cents, well above analyst expectations for 42 cents. Forward guidance was not encouraging, however, sending shares in the pre-market down about seven percent. Dollar Tree has been a stellar performer

Anybody still unconvinced that markets are rigged should take the time to watch Jeremy Szafron's Kitco News interview with Bert Dohmen:

At the Close, Tuesday, September 2, 2025:
Dow: 45,295.81, -249.07 (-0.55%)
NASDAQ: 21,279.63, -175.92 (-0.82%)
S&P 500: 6,415.54, -44.72 (-0.69%)
NYSE Composite: 21,044.87, -106.59 (-0.50%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Stocks Take A U-Turn as Gold, Silver Explode Higher; Trump Tariffs Under Pressure; Bond Spreads Widen; Happy Labor Day!

Editor's Note: Due to time global developments, time constraints, and physical obligations (holiday weekend happenings) this edition of the WEEKEND WRAP strayed somewhat from the usual format. Follow developments beginning Tuesday (9/2) when markets re-open. - FR

The last week of August, in advance of the U.S. Labor Day three-day weekend holiday, was consequential in a number of areas, but mainly in international finance and precious metals.

This post, while striving to be as circumspect as possible, cannot possibly cover all of the issues adequately. Readers are advised to follow the links provided.

There were three big developments this week concerning precious metals:
1. Gold closed above $3,500 on the COMEX
2. Silver closed above $40 on the COMEX
3. Gold has surpassed U.S.$ in central bank balance sheets globally.

The global importance of that third item cannot be understated. In essence, the U.S. dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency. It has been replaced by GOLD.

De-dollarization by a wide swath of mostly BRICS-aligned nations buying gold, combined with the rising price of gold and the declining value of U.S. treasuries pushed the value of central bank holdings of gold past those of U.S. cash and U.S. debt obligations held mainly in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds.

It bears repeating: the US$ is no longer the world's reserve currency. Gold is, and that trend is still in an early stage of development. This was first reported by Otavio (Tavi) Costa on August 29, via X, citing Bloomberg as a source, so this is surely not alt-media hyperbole.

Gold is on fire:

World central banks’ gold holdings now reflect 27% of total foreign reserves, the highest share in 29 years.

At the same time, foreign holdings of US Treasuries as % of reserves have declined to ~23%, the lowest since the 2008 Financial Crisis, per Crescat… pic.twitter.com/hrKnXnGcpJ

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 29, 2025

The ramifications of this development are monumental, epochal and ongoing. Anybody who has not seen this development coming over the past few years and made no adjustments to portfolio allocations has nobody to blame but themselves, financial advisors be damned. On that note, there is a growing trend among wealth managers (even big ones like JP Morgan Chase) to advise clients to allocate five or more percent of their portfolios to gold, which, in the infinite wisdom of such leeches on the financial system, would be to derivatives, such as the GLD ETF or other such "paper" vehicles.

While the paper chase may be fine for high net worth individuals, it's not the real thing, as in bars or coins, stored in a vault, preferably in one's own possession or with reliable access to. As events unfold, rich folks can thank their otherwise "brilliant" advisors for missing out on gold more than doubling in price over the past three years. Increased buying at this juncture is exactly what gold needs to become a complete precious metals mania, similar to the late 1970s.

Moving on...

A federal appeals court ruled Friday that President Donald Trump had no legal right to impose sweeping tariffs on almost every country on earth but left them in place until October 14, in anticipation of what will likely be an expedited Supreme Court hearing on the matter.

With the October 14 date in mind, there are other key events between now and then, including the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, at which the committee members are expected to cut the federal funds rate from its current 4.25-4.50% level by 25 or 50 basis points. As events unfold, odds may lean for the 50 basis point cut, especially if weakness in tech stocks that emerged this past week continues.

Prior to the Fed meeting is Friday's August Non-farm Payroll release from the BLS, which may put U.S. labor conditions in a more transparent light. Expectations for a light reading of less than 100,000 new jobs and possibly a negative number could add fuel to the rate-cut fire.

The 30th of September marks the end of the 2025 fiscal year and one of the largest deficits in the history of the federal government, currently standing at 1.63 trillion through the end of July, according to the U.S. Treasury.

The U.S. congress comes back to the nation's capital after its usual August recess, a development that is certain to be significant, given the weight of issues now before Washington lawmakers. From tariffs to Ukraine, the Middle East, immigration and crime issues, the blathering from the corruption center of the Western world is certain to be non-stop and full of finger-pointing, posturing, and laced with invectives. As another unacceptable deficit is thrust upon American taxpayers, the cretins who assume to be in control will do little to remedy any of the conditions that face the country.

The following was derived and parsed from an AI query, so, please, do your own due diligence.

U.S. tariff policy, if they stand after October 14, will have profound effects on U.S. exports. A bipolar economic world is evolving in its face.

The most consequential effect of the tariffs is accelerated consolidation of the BRICS+ bloc. By collectively being targeted by U.S. trade policy, these nations are incentivized to deepen trade relationships within the bloc, creating a self-reliant economic ecosystem.

Evidence comes in the form of China sourcing soy from Brazil instead of the U.S., BRICS nations redirecting energy exports (oil, LNG, propane) to each other, and developing alternative financial messaging systems to SWIFT.

The world will increasingly split into two competing economic spheres of influence: an eroding U.S.-centric and the BRICS+-centric expansion. This will force nations to choose sides, leading to further supply chain fragmentation and "friend-shoring."

The efficacy of U.S. tariffs and sanctions is another major stumbling block for the West. The tools of economic coercion (tariffs, sanctions) are losing their force because the target countries have created viable alternatives. The U.S. can no longer assume its market is indispensable.

Despite tariffs, the U.S. trade deficit is widening dramatically ($103.6B). This is because the global response is more about diversification than capitulation. Countries like India simply find other partners within the BRICS framework, ultimately reducing demand for U.S. exports, to the detriment of American farmers and energy producers.

Future U.S. administrations will find it increasingly difficult to use trade policy to achieve geopolitical goals. The more these tools are used, the faster the rest of the world builds immunity to them, reducing long-term U.S. leverage.

The volatile "seesaw pattern" of trade data reflects businesses gaming the system around tariff deadlines rather than healthy economic growth, creating artificial booms and busts in specific sectors (e.g., gold, copper, clothing imports surging before tariffs). The record import surge in July was a direct result of companies stockpiling goods before new tariffs hit. This artificially inflated economic numbers, but will likely lead to a sharp drop in subsequent quarters, creating instability.

This volatility makes it difficult for businesses to plan, invest, and hire, ultimately acting as a drag on sustainable economic growth in the U.S. particularly and Europe tangentially. It projects a future of greater economic uncertainty and supply chain inefficiency.

As economic tools become less effective, U.S. power is declining. There is an increased risk of escalation into military brinksmanship or conflict to reassert dominance and divert domestic attention from economic pain. Rather than avoid the devastating effects of war, the U.S. appears to be on a path of advancing belligerence. Inability of the NATO countries to accept reality belies this dynamic. Unable to cripple Russia economically through sanctions and energy wars, the conflict risks escalating to a more dangerous level.

The projection of a future wherein the United States' formerly unilateral economic power is diminishing relative to a more multipolar world is apparent. Tariff and sanctioning tactics and compromised media outlets are creating statistical and economic noise that masks a deeper, more troubling strategic trend: the rapid organization of a rival economic bloc that is learning to operate without reliance on the U.S. market or financial system.

The long-term projection is of a world fracturing into competing blocs, with increasing economic volatility, reduced market access for U.S. exporters, and a higher risk of geopolitical conflict.

Stocks

U.S. stocks began catching down to the rest of the world on Friday, taking an abrupt U-Turn that was mostly reflected in the NASDAQ, but barely caused a scar on the weekly figures. Any sane person would expect that to mark the continuance of the bear market sentiment that Dow Theorists understand to be still in place.

Friday and the weekly drop was led by the Dow Transports, which now can be reliably considered a leading indicator. The often overlooked Dow Jones Transportation Average has been between a bear market (-20%) and a correction (-10%) for most of 2025 and displayed its usual weakness this past week.

Wall Street, considering the cloudy environment in which it operates, will probably take the long holiday weekend to sharpen their salesmanship tactics, trying to convince those already not "all in" that stocks are the best investments ever. This ride is about to get a little bumpier.

The economic calendar will be dominated by employment, with ADP private payrolls out on Wednesday and the BLS Non-farm Payroll for August hitting pre-market on Friday.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
07/25/2025	4.37	4.46	4.46	4.42	4.42	4.31	4.09
08/01/2025	4.49	4.46	4.44	4.35	4.30	4.16	3.87
08/08/2025	4.48	4.43	4.39	4.32	4.27	4.15	3.93
08/15/2025	4.48	4.42	4.35	4.30	4.22	4.12	3.93
08/22/2025	4.47	4.38	4.36	4.27	4.21	4.08	3.87
08/29/2025	4.41	4.34	4.30	4.23	4.17	4.01	3.83

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
07/25/2025	3.91	3.86	3.95	4.15	4.40	4.92	4.92
08/01/2025	3.69	3.67	3.77	3.97	4.23	4.79	4.81
08/08/2025	3.76	3.70	3.84	4.03	4.27	4.84	4.85
08/15/2025	3.75	3.73	3.85	4.07	4.33	4.91	4.92
08/22/2025	3.68	3.64	3.76	3.98	4.26	4.84	4.88
08/29/2025	3.59	3.58	3.68	3.92	4.23	4.86	4.92

The yield curve remained partially inverted with the nexus (low point) at 2-and-3-year maturities.

Chairman Powell's Jackson Hole speech had "legs" which spread into treasuries from 30-day bills out to the 10-year note, after which the curve rapidly elevates.

Spreads widened significantly, with 2s-10s reaching +64, an extreme level, the highest since Money Daily began recording. Full spectrum advanced back to prior levels, at +51, as yields at the short end fell and those at the long end rose.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week at $64.01, a dollar below the high of $65.04 on Monday, but nearly unchanged from the prior week's close at $63.77. Fundamentals do not support price increases almost anywhere in the world.

Crude has hovered between correction and bear market since the January 15 peak of $78.71. Because oil is not subject to tariffs and most people, after basic necessities like rent, mortgage payments, and food, cannot afford excessive fuel purchases (demand destruction), a supply glut is possibly building. After Labor Day, leisure driving tails off significantly, so demand will slow, reducing the need for crude. It's the one bright spot in an overall dismal situation, wherein the government receives all the benefits (money) from the tariffs and consumers pay via increased prices. The tariffs will ultimately be seen as bad public policy resulting in global chaos or depression.

Gas prices have leveled off over the past month and remain near the low end, but were up about four cents, to $3.18 on Sunday, as Gasbuddy.com reports. Leave it to the price-gouging energy giants to rip prices higher even with plenty of cheaper fuel already in gas station tanks. The disturbing hubris of the elites never ends.

State-by-state numbers show California remaining at the top, up six cents, at $4.59 per gallon. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Mississippi the cheapest, at $2.71.

The Northeast and Midwest, out to Michigan and Illinois, are all $3.00-plus.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 20 states, the same as last week, exclusively concentrated in the South and Midwest, most marginally higher.

Bitcoin

This week: $108,241.07
Last week: $114,536.60
2 weeks ago: $118,309.30
6 months ago: $86,273.05
One year ago: $59,123.20
Five years ago: $10,166.73

Bitcoin took a beating this week and has not performed nearly as well as precious metals over the past month, highlighting the difference between "digital gold" and the real thing.

1 month performance (July 30 - August 29, 2025)
Gold: $3,516.10, +$192.10 (+5.78%)
Silver: $40.75, +$2.46 (+6.42%)
Bitcoin: 107,906.70, -10,269.50 (-8.69%)

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 86.28; last week: 86.75

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 8/1: $3,416.00
Gold price 8/8: $3,458.20
Gold price 8/15: $3,381.70
Gold price 8/22: $3,417.20
Gold price 8/29: $3,516.10

Silver price 8/1: $37.10
Silver price 8/8: $38.51
Silver price 8/15: $38.02
Silver price 8/22: $39.39
Silver price 8/29: $40.75

It's possible that the gains in gold and silver on Friday, adding to the already rapidly-advancing price structure, may be the beginning of a mania for precious metals. Be on the lookout (BOLO) for print, TV, radio, and internet ads hawking gold or willing to buy gold, as those are adequate signals that the general public has been awakened.

There's little doubt that the usual suspects will try to suppress prices in coming days and weeks, but it appears that their efforts are increasingly less effective and soon to fail. The wheels of the Western economic wagon have been falling off since 2008 and accelerated with the pandemic. We are witnessing wholesale dollar destruction on a grand, global scale. Now the wagon itself is beginning to splinter, eventually ending up in pieces on the dirt road of economic, political, and social calamity.

Stack harder.

Sunday's survey on eBay displayed higher prices for gold in particular. It appeared that silver had already peaked last week, but that now appears to have been only a disguise for the coming hyperbolic move to record levels. The focus is clearly on gold, but silver's move on Friday was dramatic and a welcome development.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	39.00	52.00	45.67	45.00
1 oz silver bar:	45.00	54.47	48.88	47.98
1 oz gold coin:	3,569.40	3,724.96	3,629.75	3,607.36
1 oz gold bar:	3,485.00	3,670.45	3,608.47	3,613.30

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose modestly for the week, albeit to a new record high since Money Daily began recording in 2021, of $46.88, a gain of $0.18 from the August 24 price of $46.70 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

It's kind of disturbing that Americans celebrate "Labor Day" just as congress returns from a month-long holiday. In a just and righteous world, American workers and small business employers would take all of September off and refuse to pay taxes. Sadly, American exceptionalism has been supplanted by elitism, foisted upon the public by inflation and propaganda.

We must do better.

At the Close, Friday, August 29, 2025:
Dow: 45,544.88, -92.02 (-0.20%)
NASDAQ: 21,455.55, -249.61 (-1.15%)
S&P 500: 6,460.26, -41.60 (-0.64%)
NYSE Composite: 21,151.46, -13.58 (-0.06%)

For the Week:
Dow: -86.86 (-0.19%)
NASDAQ: -40.99 (-0.19%)
S&P 500: -6.65 (-0.10%)
NYSE Composite: +1.35 (+0.01%)
Dow Transports: -197.16 (-1.22)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Trump Betrays Base, Sending More Arms to Ukraine, Closes De Minimus Exemption, Urges Fed to Cut Rates, as PCE Rises

Just like boiling frogs or lobsters, the heat is rising gradually on American consumers, otherwise known as citizens, muppets, or chattel.

Trump’s overt betrayal of his base is astounding. Campaigning on ending the Ukraine conflict in one day and promising lower prices for Americans, Trump has done little if anything to relieve his countrymen of a rising cost of living as living standards continue to deteriorate and the Ukraine war intensifies, the recent summit in Alaska with Russia and meeting with European allies afterward, all in the name of peace, provided cover for escalating the conflict.

Most people identified as middle or lower classes in the United States can barely get through a week without reaching for a credit card to pay everyday expenses. Food prices have remained high and continue to increase. Rents are outrageous and buying a home is almost completely unattainable for anybody making less than $100,000 a year.

Late Thursday, President Trump approved an $825 million arms sale to Ukraine that will include extended-range missiles and related equipment. Trump's timing on this latest betrayal could not have been better, right before a three-day weekend celebrating slavery labor.

The Trump administration has also close the de minimus exemption on shipments coming into the United States. For years, packages coming into the United States valued at under $800 were exempt from tariffs. That will no longer be the case. The new policy places tariffs on all shipments into the U.S. unless they are under $100 and identified as "gifts." Good luck with that.

Inbound postal supply lines are beginning to experience bottlenecks because of the tariff collection issues, including Asia's Korea Post and SingPost, halting standard parcel services. Japan also warned of delays. In Europe, Norway, Finland, Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, and the UK are suspending or limiting services. Deutsche Post/DHL halted all business parcels to the U.S. via postal networks. Shipments through Australia to the U.S. have been paused as well. FedEx and UPS are fighting a logistical nightmare from the new tariff fees, as their businesses specialize on small packages.

In effect, U.S. consumers will henceforth pay higher prices for imported food and goods because of the tariffs and added shipping and compliance costs. Companies that specialize in small packages, like DHL, have already halted shipments to the United States

Consumers and small businesses will suffer and trade will decline. American consumers of some products need not worry about higher prices because there won't be any available on the empty shelves of the few retailers remaining open.

At the same time the federal government will collect more taxes and congress will waste it on bailouts, the MIC, militarized policing, more lawfare, and tax breaks for the already wealthy campaign contributors.

The BEA announced the latest statistical lie Friday morning, the Personal Consumption Index, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge (because it is the least accurate).

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for July increased 2.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.9 percent from one year ago.

For the month of July, Real PCE, +0.3; PCE price index, +0.2; PCE price index, excluding food and energy, +0.3. Annualized, the so-called "Super Core" PCE (Services less Shelter) rose to 3.32%. Apparently, neither President Trump nor Fed Chairman Jerome Powell pay much attention to these numbers, as Trump has urged - and Powell now appears willing to comply - the Fed to lower interest rates.

Politicians and bankers come from the same cloth. They all lie, all the time.

Stocks Continue to March Higher; Nvidia Somewhat Disappoints; Dollar General, Ollie's Top Retail 2Q Earnings; Gold, Silver Bid

U.S. stocks continued their relentless rally on Wednesday, as bourses in other countries struggled for gains. India's SENSEX has been particularly hard hit, down three of the past four sessions, while European stocks have chopped along to lower levels.

With Nvidia (NVDA) reporting generally positive results after the close Wednesday, invstors seemed concerned about the prospects for continued growth from the world's leading AI chip maker, the stock trending about two percent lower in the aftermarket and prior to Thursday's opening bell.

At the same time, gold and silver prices have spiked higher, with gold heading for record prices on the futures market, hitting $3,466 around 8:30 am ET. Silver was bid very strongly, with $39.72 the most recent price.

A number of important retailers reported Thursday morning.

Briefly, Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) beat expectations and issued positive guidance, but the stock is marginally lower over concerns about its recent acquisition of Foot Locker.

Best Buy (BBY) reported modest sales recovery fr the most recnt quarter, but issued a warning of sorts, expressing a view that tariffs are complicating its turnaround efforts. Shares are down less than two percent in the pre-market.

Dollar General (DG), one of the nation's largest discount chains, reported strong earnings and raised fiscal year guidance, saying that shoppers are seeking bargains on household items, which is making their stores a destination for struggling consumers, though sales have been consistent. The stock is trading up about five percent prior to the open.

Surplus retailer Ollie's (OLLI) reported strong results for the second quarter, with revenue at $679.6 million versus analyst estimates of $661.9 million (17.5% year-on-year growth, 2.7% beat), and adjusted EPS of $0.99 against analyst estimates of $0.93, a 6.8% beat. Shares of the company are soaring pre-market, up as much as six percent.

At 8:30 am ET, the BEA issued the second estimate of second quarter real GDP, revising the initial estimate 0.3% higher, to 3.3% for the quarter.

Weekly unemployment claims were moderate, at 229,000 intial claims, down 5,000 from last week. Continuing claims remain stubbornly high, with nearly two million seeking work.

That news moved the neddle slightly, but U.S. stock futures fluctuated around unchanged. The Dow was the most prominent, up around 50 points less than an hour before the bell.

Strong showings by a handful of companies, consumer spending relatively stable, a solid employment market and GDP at 3.3% doesn't exactly scream "rate cut," though that continues to be the preferred path for the Fed following last week's Jackson Hole speech by Chairman Jerome Powell.

With the S&P making another record high close on Wednesday, the Shiller PE (CAPE) hit 39.04 and appears to be heading toward the record level of 44.19, made in December, 1999, at the peak of the dotcom boom.

This time the techology pushing stocks is AI. The biggest names in tech - Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta Platforms - have invested heavily in data farms and faster chips required to power the Large Language Models (LLMs) on which AI relies. There is some concern that the hundreds of billions spent on building out AI might be a bridge too far, as there have only been spotty financial results stemming from the boom, though it is still early in the game.

So far, this week has been positive for stocks, despite a handful of issues overhanging the markets, but, heading toward the end of the month and a three-day weekend, U.S. stocks appear to be in good shape.

At the Close, Wednesday, August 27, 2025:
Dow: 45,565.23, +147.16 (+0.32%)
NASDAQ: 21,590.14, +45.87 (+0.21%)
S&P 500: 6,481.40, +15.46 (+0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 21,132.43, +49.88 (+0.24%)

U.S. Stocks Continue to Defy Gravity, Even as Markets and Economies Elsewhere are Crashing; Trump and Federal Reserve at Odds

Attempting to figure out U.S. equity markets has become an exercise in futility.

Amid geo-political upheaval from heavily-indebted countries in Europe - France, Germany, and England in particular - tariff and inflation concerns in the U.S., ongoing conflicts in which the United States is deeply intertwined, and President Trump's unpredictable actions domestically, stocks have been oddly complacent and accommodating to shareholders, with all of the major indices at or near all-time highs.

Tuesday's trading was a case-in-point. While stocks were down everywhere from Asia to Europe, U.S. markets displayed remarkable resilience as if it was on its own trajectory and conditions in the rest of the world didn't matter, when, naturally, they do. Wall Street and the money fueling the rallies seems to have little in the way of conscience or risk assessment.

On Tuesday, in a rare move, Donald Trump fired Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve board of governors. The markets didn't even blink. Perhaps the assumption is that Trump's firing was more misdirection or revenge and that the Supreme Court will nullify the president's attempt to stack the board with appointees more favorably aligned with his "lower rates, now" mantra.

But, what if the court decides that the firing is within Trump's constitutional authority? It makes the Fed vulnerable to outside influence by setting a precedent that the current president can use to his political and economic advantage, along with future presidents who may use the firing mechanism as a tool of fiscal policy.

The Fed itself is not beloved by most people, especially consumers and anybody who has a credit card or mortgage. The Federal Reserve consistently acts in its own interests, not in those of the American public. If they did, the U.S. dollar would not have been ravaged by inflation over the many decades the Fed had control of the currency in the U.S. and the greenback was the reserve currency of the world.

Compared to its value at the Fed's birth in 1913, the dollar has lost nearly all of its value, debased by a minimum of 97% and currently on a trajectory to eliminate the last three percent of value within a very short time.

Still, the Fed stands between the government and constitution. Federal Reserve Notes, which Americans and most of the world regard as "money" are only IOUs, debt instruments created either out of thin air or by bank loans. While they continue to be a safe medium of exchange, they are by no means a store of value. They lose value consistently over long periods of time.

Beyond the relative security of everybody using the same currency as issued, the Fed also acts as a lender of last resort, especially during crises, as has been obviated as recently as 2008, when they bailed out most of the world's leading banking institutions. Should U.S. presidents gain control of the institution's policy mechanics, the next crisis could be the Fed's last, and maybe that's a good thing.

Heading into Wednesday's "Nvidia day" (the company reports after the close), futures have essentially flat-lined, which leads to no consensus on direction. How long stocks can remain bubbly is something nobody seems able to reasonably predict, only that they'll fly high until the next crisis hits, although one might consider the imminent economic collapse of both England and France, waving white and red flags, to indicate the next crisis is already well underway.

At the Close, Tuesday, August 26, 2025:
Dow: 45,418.07, +135.60 (+0.30%)
NASDAQ: 21,544.27, +94.98 (+0.44%)
S&P 500: 6,465.94, +26.62 (+0.41%)
NYSE Composite: 21,082.56, +81.99 (+0.39%)

International Sea of Red Greets U.S. Stocks as Tariffs, Inflation, Debt Begin to Bite at Fiat Regimes Globally; Bitcoin Hammered

If you like your deli meats to be of the fake variety, i.e., phoney baloney then the U.S. stock market is where you want to be.

On the heels of the big upside rally on Friday, sparked by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's acquiescence to rate cut pressure, stocks took an alternate route to reality on Monday, shedding more than 300 points on the Dow, the S&P slip-sliding away, and the NASDAQ, which notably did not mark a new record high on Friday, pumping and dumping all in one strange session. Down more than 90 points just after the open, the index was up 75 by midday, only to lose is all and finish 47 points in the red.

Stock trades on the NAZ were probably made with assistance from AI, which has shown itself to be vastly overrated and magnificently overpriced in terms of what big tech firms have been spending on implementing newer, better, faster iteration of chatboxes. The Large Language Models (LLMs) that the likes of Google, Microsoft, Apple, X.com, and others have been developing have come with enormous up-front costs in material, learning, coding, and implementation, and the ongoing costs of maintaining the hardware for these massive server farms figure to be extreme, to the point of negative marks on company balance sheets.

While getting answers quicker than a Big Mac at a drive-through may be a marvel of technology, in basis terms, it costs a ton of money to find out who had the highest batting average in the National League in 2004 or what's the best way to make pizza at home. It used to be a matter of just cruising the internet until one found a site with the information, but, in their infinite knowledge and commitment to not being evil (looking at Google here), big tech decided to glom up all the traffic on the internet and keep it on Google or Bing or wherever the AI beast has been positioned, taking the best from the websites that produced the information in the first place and paying them nothing for it.

Webmasters and site owners around the world are very upset at this development, especially those which relied on traffic from the search engines for revenue, via ad programs such as Google AdSense, which the AI option has canabalized. Thus, Google gets more traffic and hits on their self-generative ads, websites get nothing for providing the information, and, ultimately Google just plain eats itself. So far, AI has done little other than stifle innovation on the internet and made more than a few humans a little bit dumber, as if that was a prerequisite goal of AI, which, it must be constantly remembered, stands for Artificial Intelligence.

Yes, there have been real profits and stock price jumps, but the piper is playing and he likes to get paid. It's beginning to look like the only real thing about AI was the hype, as in, it was really, really hyped to the max!

With stocks in the tech space rivaling valuations from the dotcom era, there's a high degree of risk in owning these names presently. Sure, in 1999-2000 the internet was the thing and all companies needed to do to launch an IPO was attach .com to their name and come up with some funny ad campaigns and $100-500 million would come into their coffers. The AI craze is a little bit different, because the internet is still there, it's more robust, and AI is just another app, or SaaS (Software as a Service) to be monetized by the tech titans.

Could be an "oopsie!" moment waiting to happen.

It's worth pointing out that the Dow Industrials made an all-time closing high on Friday, but the Transportation Average, which, according to Dow Theory, needs to confirm, is nowhere near record levels. For purists, the primary trend remains bearish.

While Monday's trading indicates that Friday's rally was built entirely on hype and hope, Tuesday's set-up is not encouraging for the bull camp. President Trump intensified efforts to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, fanning the flames of the ongoing rift between the Fed and the White House. Inflation concerns are sending bond yields higher as tariff issues intensify.

The Commerce Department reported orders for durable goods fell 2.8% after declining 9.4% in June. Around the world, stock indices are lower everywhere from Tokyo to New Delhi to Berlin and London. France is being ravaged, with the CAC-40 off more than 1.25%.

Stock futures in the U.S. are dropping a half hour before the open.

Gold and silver are bid, WTI crude oil is lower. Bitcoin continues to be sold off, dropping below $109,000 earlier Tuesday morning.

From the looks of things, if Friday's rally was a last hurrah for stocks in a buy the rumor, sell the news kind of way, the remainder of this week could become very interesting.

At the Close, Monday, August 25, 2025
Dow: 45,282.47, -349.27 (-0.77%)
NASDAQ: 21,449.29, -47.24 (-0.22%)
S&P 500: 6,439.32, -27.59 (-0.43%)
NYSE Composite: 21,000.56, -149.55 (-0.71%)