The last week of August, in advance of the U.S. Labor Day three-day weekend holiday, was consequential in a number of areas, but mainly in international finance and precious metals.
This post, while striving to be as circumspect as possible, cannot possibly cover all of the issues adequately. Readers are advised to follow the links provided.
There were three big developments this week concerning precious metals:
1. Gold closed above $3,500 on the COMEX
2. Silver closed above $40 on the COMEX
3. Gold has surpassed U.S.$ in central bank balance sheets globally.
The global importance of that third item cannot be understated. In essence, the U.S. dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency. It has been replaced by GOLD.
De-dollarization by a wide swath of mostly BRICS-aligned nations buying gold, combined with the rising price of gold and the declining value of U.S. treasuries pushed the value of central bank holdings of gold past those of U.S. cash and U.S. debt obligations held mainly in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds.
It bears repeating: the US$ is no longer the world's reserve currency. Gold is, and that trend is still in an early stage of development. This was first reported by Otavio (Tavi) Costa on August 29, via X, citing Bloomberg as a source, so this is surely not alt-media hyperbole.
Gold is on fire:
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 29, 2025
World central banks’ gold holdings now reflect 27% of total foreign reserves, the highest share in 29 years.
At the same time, foreign holdings of US Treasuries as % of reserves have declined to ~23%, the lowest since the 2008 Financial Crisis, per Crescat… pic.twitter.com/hrKnXnGcpJ
The ramifications of this development are monumental, epochal and ongoing. Anybody who has not seen this development coming over the past few years and made no adjustments to portfolio allocations has nobody to blame but themselves, financial advisors be damned. On that note, there is a growing trend among wealth managers (even big ones like JP Morgan Chase) to advise clients to allocate five or more percent of their portfolios to gold, which, in the infinite wisdom of such leeches on the financial system, would be to derivatives, such as the GLD ETF or other such "paper" vehicles.
While the paper chase may be fine for high net worth individuals, it's not the real thing, as in bars or coins, stored in a vault, preferably in one's own possession or with reliable access to. As events unfold, rich folks can thank their otherwise "brilliant" advisors for missing out on gold more than doubling in price over the past three years. Increased buying at this juncture is exactly what gold needs to become a complete precious metals mania, similar to the late 1970s.
Moving on...
A federal appeals court ruled Friday that President Donald Trump had no legal right to impose sweeping tariffs on almost every country on earth but left them in place until October 14, in anticipation of what will likely be an expedited Supreme Court hearing on the matter.
With the October 14 date in mind, there are other key events between now and then, including the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, at which the committee members are expected to cut the federal funds rate from its current 4.25-4.50% level by 25 or 50 basis points. As events unfold, odds may lean for the 50 basis point cut, especially if weakness in tech stocks that emerged this past week continues.
Prior to the Fed meeting is Friday's August Non-farm Payroll release from the BLS, which may put U.S. labor conditions in a more transparent light. Expectations for a light reading of less than 100,000 new jobs and possibly a negative number could add fuel to the rate-cut fire.
The 30th of September marks the end of the 2025 fiscal year and one of the largest deficits in the history of the federal government, currently standing at 1.63 trillion through the end of July, according to the U.S. Treasury.
The U.S. congress comes back to the nation's capital after its usual August recess, a development that is certain to be significant, given the weight of issues now before Washington lawmakers. From tariffs to Ukraine, the Middle East, immigration and crime issues, the blathering from the corruption center of the Western world is certain to be non-stop and full of finger-pointing, posturing, and laced with invectives. As another unacceptable deficit is thrust upon American taxpayers, the cretins who assume to be in control will do little to remedy any of the conditions that face the country.
The following was derived and parsed from an AI query, so, please, do your own due diligence.
U.S. tariff policy, if they stand after October 14, will have profound effects on U.S. exports. A bipolar economic world is evolving in its face.The most consequential effect of the tariffs is accelerated consolidation of the BRICS+ bloc. By collectively being targeted by U.S. trade policy, these nations are incentivized to deepen trade relationships within the bloc, creating a self-reliant economic ecosystem.
Evidence comes in the form of China sourcing soy from Brazil instead of the U.S., BRICS nations redirecting energy exports (oil, LNG, propane) to each other, and developing alternative financial messaging systems to SWIFT.
The world will increasingly split into two competing economic spheres of influence: an eroding U.S.-centric and the BRICS+-centric expansion. This will force nations to choose sides, leading to further supply chain fragmentation and "friend-shoring."
The efficacy of U.S. tariffs and sanctions is another major stumbling block for the West. The tools of economic coercion (tariffs, sanctions) are losing their force because the target countries have created viable alternatives. The U.S. can no longer assume its market is indispensable.
Despite tariffs, the U.S. trade deficit is widening dramatically ($103.6B). This is because the global response is more about diversification than capitulation. Countries like India simply find other partners within the BRICS framework, ultimately reducing demand for U.S. exports, to the detriment of American farmers and energy producers.
Future U.S. administrations will find it increasingly difficult to use trade policy to achieve geopolitical goals. The more these tools are used, the faster the rest of the world builds immunity to them, reducing long-term U.S. leverage.
The volatile "seesaw pattern" of trade data reflects businesses gaming the system around tariff deadlines rather than healthy economic growth, creating artificial booms and busts in specific sectors (e.g., gold, copper, clothing imports surging before tariffs). The record import surge in July was a direct result of companies stockpiling goods before new tariffs hit. This artificially inflated economic numbers, but will likely lead to a sharp drop in subsequent quarters, creating instability.
This volatility makes it difficult for businesses to plan, invest, and hire, ultimately acting as a drag on sustainable economic growth in the U.S. particularly and Europe tangentially. It projects a future of greater economic uncertainty and supply chain inefficiency.
As economic tools become less effective, U.S. power is declining. There is an increased risk of escalation into military brinksmanship or conflict to reassert dominance and divert domestic attention from economic pain. Rather than avoid the devastating effects of war, the U.S. appears to be on a path of advancing belligerence. Inability of the NATO countries to accept reality belies this dynamic. Unable to cripple Russia economically through sanctions and energy wars, the conflict risks escalating to a more dangerous level.
The projection of a future wherein the United States' formerly unilateral economic power is diminishing relative to a more multipolar world is apparent. Tariff and sanctioning tactics and compromised media outlets are creating statistical and economic noise that masks a deeper, more troubling strategic trend: the rapid organization of a rival economic bloc that is learning to operate without reliance on the U.S. market or financial system.
The long-term projection is of a world fracturing into competing blocs, with increasing economic volatility, reduced market access for U.S. exporters, and a higher risk of geopolitical conflict.
Stocks
U.S. stocks began catching down to the rest of the world on Friday, taking an abrupt U-Turn that was mostly reflected in the NASDAQ, but barely caused a scar on the weekly figures. Any sane person would expect that to mark the continuance of the bear market sentiment that Dow Theorists understand to be still in place.
Friday and the weekly drop was led by the Dow Transports, which now can be reliably considered a leading indicator. The often overlooked Dow Jones Transportation Average has been between a bear market (-20%) and a correction (-10%) for most of 2025 and displayed its usual weakness this past week.
Wall Street, considering the cloudy environment in which it operates, will probably take the long holiday weekend to sharpen their salesmanship tactics, trying to convince those already not "all in" that stocks are the best investments ever. This ride is about to get a little bumpier.
The economic calendar will be dominated by employment, with ADP private payrolls out on Wednesday and the BLS Non-farm Payroll for August hitting pre-market on Friday.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 07/25/2025 | 4.37 | 4.46 | 4.46 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.31 | 4.09 |
| 08/01/2025 | 4.49 | 4.46 | 4.44 | 4.35 | 4.30 | 4.16 | 3.87 |
| 08/08/2025 | 4.48 | 4.43 | 4.39 | 4.32 | 4.27 | 4.15 | 3.93 |
| 08/15/2025 | 4.48 | 4.42 | 4.35 | 4.30 | 4.22 | 4.12 | 3.93 |
| 08/22/2025 | 4.47 | 4.38 | 4.36 | 4.27 | 4.21 | 4.08 | 3.87 |
| 08/29/2025 | 4.41 | 4.34 | 4.30 | 4.23 | 4.17 | 4.01 | 3.83 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 07/25/2025 | 3.91 | 3.86 | 3.95 | 4.15 | 4.40 | 4.92 | 4.92 |
| 08/01/2025 | 3.69 | 3.67 | 3.77 | 3.97 | 4.23 | 4.79 | 4.81 |
| 08/08/2025 | 3.76 | 3.70 | 3.84 | 4.03 | 4.27 | 4.84 | 4.85 |
| 08/15/2025 | 3.75 | 3.73 | 3.85 | 4.07 | 4.33 | 4.91 | 4.92 |
| 08/22/2025 | 3.68 | 3.64 | 3.76 | 3.98 | 4.26 | 4.84 | 4.88 |
| 08/29/2025 | 3.59 | 3.58 | 3.68 | 3.92 | 4.23 | 4.86 | 4.92 |
The yield curve remained partially inverted with the nexus (low point) at 2-and-3-year maturities.
Chairman Powell's Jackson Hole speech had "legs" which spread into treasuries from 30-day bills out to the 10-year note, after which the curve rapidly elevates.
Spreads widened significantly, with 2s-10s reaching +64, an extreme level, the highest since Money Daily began recording. Full spectrum advanced back to prior levels, at +51, as yields at the short end fell and those at the long end rose.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
Oil/Gas
WTI crude oil closed out the week at $64.01, a dollar below the high of $65.04 on Monday, but nearly unchanged from the prior week's close at $63.77. Fundamentals do not support price increases almost anywhere in the world.
Crude has hovered between correction and bear market since the January 15 peak of $78.71. Because oil is not subject to tariffs and most people, after basic necessities like rent, mortgage payments, and food, cannot afford excessive fuel purchases (demand destruction), a supply glut is possibly building. After Labor Day, leisure driving tails off significantly, so demand will slow, reducing the need for crude. It's the one bright spot in an overall dismal situation, wherein the government receives all the benefits (money) from the tariffs and consumers pay via increased prices. The tariffs will ultimately be seen as bad public policy resulting in global chaos or depression.
Gas prices have leveled off over the past month and remain near the low end, but were up about four cents, to $3.18 on Sunday, as Gasbuddy.com reports. Leave it to the price-gouging energy giants to rip prices higher even with plenty of cheaper fuel already in gas station tanks. The disturbing hubris of the elites never ends.
State-by-state numbers show California remaining at the top, up six cents, at $4.59 per gallon. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Mississippi the cheapest, at $2.71.
The Northeast and Midwest, out to Michigan and Illinois, are all $3.00-plus.
Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 20 states, the same as last week, exclusively concentrated in the South and Midwest, most marginally higher.
Bitcoin
This week: $108,241.07
Last week: $114,536.60
2 weeks ago: $118,309.30
6 months ago: $86,273.05
One year ago: $59,123.20
Five years ago: $10,166.73
Bitcoin took a beating this week and has not performed nearly as well as precious metals over the past month, highlighting the difference between "digital gold" and the real thing.
1 month performance (July 30 - August 29, 2025)
Gold: $3,516.10, +$192.10 (+5.78%)
Silver: $40.75, +$2.46 (+6.42%)
Bitcoin: 107,906.70, -10,269.50 (-8.69%)
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 86.28; last week: 86.75
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 8/1: $3,416.00
Gold price 8/8: $3,458.20
Gold price 8/15: $3,381.70
Gold price 8/22: $3,417.20
Gold price 8/29: $3,516.10
Silver price 8/1: $37.10
Silver price 8/8: $38.51
Silver price 8/15: $38.02
Silver price 8/22: $39.39
Silver price 8/29: $40.75
It's possible that the gains in gold and silver on Friday, adding to the already rapidly-advancing price structure, may be the beginning of a mania for precious metals. Be on the lookout (BOLO) for print, TV, radio, and internet ads hawking gold or willing to buy gold, as those are adequate signals that the general public has been awakened.
There's little doubt that the usual suspects will try to suppress prices in coming days and weeks, but it appears that their efforts are increasingly less effective and soon to fail. The wheels of the Western economic wagon have been falling off since 2008 and accelerated with the pandemic. We are witnessing wholesale dollar destruction on a grand, global scale. Now the wagon itself is beginning to splinter, eventually ending up in pieces on the dirt road of economic, political, and social calamity.
Stack harder.
Sunday's survey on eBay displayed higher prices for gold in particular. It appeared that silver had already peaked last week, but that now appears to have been only a disguise for the coming hyperbolic move to record levels. The focus is clearly on gold, but silver's move on Friday was dramatic and a welcome development.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 39.00 | 52.00 | 45.67 | 45.00 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 45.00 | 54.47 | 48.88 | 47.98 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 3,569.40 | 3,724.96 | 3,629.75 | 3,607.36 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 3,485.00 | 3,670.45 | 3,608.47 | 3,613.30 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose modestly for the week, albeit to a new record high since Money Daily began recording in 2021, of $46.88, a gain of $0.18 from the August 24 price of $46.70 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
It's kind of disturbing that Americans celebrate "Labor Day" just as congress returns from a month-long holiday. In a just and righteous world, American workers and small business employers would take all of September off and refuse to pay taxes. Sadly, American exceptionalism has been supplanted by elitism, foisted upon the public by inflation and propaganda.
We must do better.
At the Close, Friday, August 29, 2025:
Dow: 45,544.88, -92.02 (-0.20%)
NASDAQ: 21,455.55, -249.61 (-1.15%)
S&P 500: 6,460.26, -41.60 (-0.64%)
NYSE Composite: 21,151.46, -13.58 (-0.06%)
For the Week:
Dow: -86.86 (-0.19%)
NASDAQ: -40.99 (-0.19%)
S&P 500: -6.65 (-0.10%)
NYSE Composite: +1.35 (+0.01%)
Dow Transports: -197.16 (-1.22)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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