WEEKEND WRAP: Stocks Rescued Again on Friday; Gold, Silver, Oil Make Gains, Retreat; Bitcoin Heads Toward ZERO; Economy Strong, but, Stimulus is Coming

For the second straight Friday, stocks were rescued from deep declines by dip buyers appearing from the shadows of the market to keep alive the positive vibes.

It's become almost routine for markets to perform in this manner, but it is disturbing and tiresome to witness the same plunge protection scheme over and over and over again, while precious metals are resolutely sold off at the same time. These supporters of stocks might somehow be eventually recompensed, but it is more likely that there will be money lost, integrity absent.

It's perfectly natural for this kind of behavior to occur, when the owners behind the fascist oligarchy control currency that can be created at the drop of a hat in a wink of an eye. In the end, it will be disastrous for some, a rounding error for the high and mighty. In the end, reckoning takes place. In between then and now, fraud, deception, and chaos run amok.

It's a loathsome task to have to report on the decline of Western civilization while the ultra-wealthy skim at their leisure and the captured media promotes "feel-good America" stories. The circle is amoral, without virtue. Corporations donate to campaigns of politicians who write legislation favorable to their business interests. Stocks go up, legislators and insiders profit. Everybody wins. Wash, rinse, repeat. It's a nice game if one can get into the loop, which isn't easy. It would be preferable to praise the upper crust of Americans for their wisdom and virtue, but none can be found.

The bigger picture peers beyond the facade of stocks, bonds, crypto assets, and derivatives. The value of the dollar has fallen precipitously since the pandemic scare. Food, rents, and the mundane pleasures of living in an import economy aren't more expensive. The amount of depreciating currency needed to buy the same as last month, or last year, is increasing. As the dollar - and the euro, yen, pound, etc. - approaches the status of confetti, strains on the public continue to grow, even as the political circus becomes a bizarre comedy of errors.

In the end, the currency fails, the empire is stripped bare, the world turns. The saving grace is that total debasing of fiat currency doesn't happen overnight. It takes time, decades, actually, but time, as seen in the growth of BRICS and aligned countries and the continued gains in precious metals, seems to be growing short, along with patience, trust and a trove of other treasures that used to be part and parcel of American and European civility.

Don't expect life in the United States to improve, though stocks may rally - or not - despite your personal pessimism. At this stage of the game, virtually anything is possible. Preparation - and not necessarily "Preparation H", though it may be at some point advisable - is a paramount function for transition to the post-apocalypse wonderland.

Stocks

As mentioned above, another rough week was averted by the latest in a long series of Friday rallies.

The S&P and NASDAQ closed out the week cozied down to their respective 50-day moving averages. The Dow is hanging just above its own. There's a wager that breaking lower in the week ahead could cause some cascading, though one would have to be entirely convinced that the insider rigging is over to play it. The most skeptical market observers - you know who you are - won't play the downside until there's confirmation, though the handful of still-breathing Dow Theorists take note that stocks are still in a primary bearish trend and that recent highs were sugar-coating, based on accounting trickery, stock buybacks, blind faith, and trillion in soft money needing a place to reside.

Stocks have been the choice, will likely remain the choice, and have equal potential to gain or decline in the near term, though it's becoming increasingly difficult to look past the recent foibles and failures: the government shutdown fiasco, the One Big, Beautiful Bill and its $2 trillion deficit, political infighting, bitcoin's collapse just as the government ramps up its love affair with crypto and stablecoins.

Late in the week, the White House blurted out that the government would not be releasing data on October Non-farm payrolls and CPI (implying that October PPI will go missing as well) due to the government shutdown. Taking that failure at face value would likely be a mistake. The more attuned perception sees the "lost" information more as a cover or cover-up for disastrous information, as in, inflation up, jobs down. White House Press Secretary said that the Fed would be "flying blind," which begs the question, "when were they not?"

The week ahead offers few corporate earnings reports, including the biggie, Nvidia (NVDA), after the close Wednesday, plus a handful of big box retailers.

Third quarter earning announcements of note:

Monday, November 17: (before open) VerifyMe (VRME), Freightos (CRGO); (after close) Gladstone Capital (GLAD), Trip.com (TCOM), HP (HP)

Tuesday, November 18: (before open) Bidu (BIDU), Klarna (KLAR), Home Depot (HD); (after close) Dolby (DLB), LazyBoy (LZB)

Wednesday, November 19: (before open) Target (TGT), TJX (TJX), Lowe's (LOW), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Viking Cruise Lines (VIK); (after close) Nvidia (NVDA), Palo Alto Industries (PANW), Jack-in-the-Box (JACK)

Thursday, November 20: (before open) Walmart (WMT), Warner Music Group (WMG), Shoe Carnival (SCVL); (after close) Gap Inc. (GAP), Copart (CPRT), Intuit (INTU), Webull (BULL), Ross Stores (ROST)

Friday, November 21: (before open) BJ's Wholesale (BJ), Frontline (FRO)

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
10/10/2025	4.19	4.16	4.10	4.02	3.96	3.81	3.60
10/17/2025	4.18	4.15	4.08	4.00	3.95	3.79	3.56
10/24/2025	4.11	4.06	4.02	3.93	3.89	3.76	3.58
10/31/2025	4.06	4.02	4.04	3.89	3.87	3.79	3.70
11/07/2025	4.01	3.96	3.98	3.92	3.83	3.76	3.63
11/14/2025	4.04	4.02	4.01	3.95	3.88	3.80	3.70

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
10/10/2025	3.52	3.52	3.65	3.83	4.05	4.60	4.63
10/17/2025	3.46	3.47	3.59	3.78	4.02	4.58	4.60
10/24/2025	3.48	3.49	3.61	3.79	4.02	4.56	4.59
10/31/2025	3.60	3.60	3.71	3.89	4.11	4.65	4.67
11/07/2025	3.55	3.57	3.67	3.87	4.11	4.68	4.70
11/14/2025	3.62	3.61	3.74	3.92	4.14	4.73	4.74

There is compression in the middle of the curve, with all yields rising over the past week. It's probably difficult for anybody to make money on spreads so thin, within a percentage point of the funding and lending rates, which is why mortgage rates remain stubbornly high and credit card and auto loan interest rates have gotten to the point of just plain stupid. Nobody should be borrowing at 20-25% or higher, but, since the banks lobbied hard enough to have usury laws eradicated decades ago, that is where we are.

Under present conditions, borrowing is strained. Lending is a last resort. A four percent natural rate, if that's really where it is, aligns with the general inflation, making for a zero-sum game. The U.S. government has to borrow and in the long run, the Fed buys most of the paper, i.e., prints money. That's not zero-sum. That's a road to perdition. Proof is the mountains of debt. $38 trillion on the government end. Even more for business and consumers.

The next wave of stimulus will be soon, but it will manifest in various shapes and forms, first, with government handing money to individuals with which to purchase health care, rather than extend the ridiculous construct of Obamacare subsidies because the cost of "keeping your doctor" is escalating premiums, fattening the coffers of the insurance providers. Talk is already growing toward direct payments to consumers, a shot directly into the arm of the economy to placate millions at the expense of millions more.

After that, $2,000 tariff "stimmies" for taxpayers at the outset, until the cries of "unfair" overwhelm the narrative and everybody gets a check.

In the past week, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem endeared herself to 47,000 airport fondlers otherwise known as TSA, air traffic controllers and other department employers by promising $10,000 bonuses to all who stayed on the job during the shutdown. That's nearly half a billion bucks to people who mostly stand around and when they're busy, are generally in the business of abusing people who frequent the "friendly skies." Ordinary people outside the Beltway and government largesse, in private businesses, never stoped working for a second and get $2,000 and higher prices.

The full spectrum 30-days-to-30-years spread hit a new high of +70, which is likely to be eclipsed within six months, as the Fed cuts rates (December rate cut odds are about 50/50 for a 25 basis point cut) once Jerome Powell is replaced with a more dovish Chairman. Borrowing will be at the short end, with the 30-year rising beyond 5.00%, as long-dated maturities are increasingly shunned by foreigners.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70

Oil/Gas

WTI crude closed out the week at $59.81, an imperceptible move last Friday's close of $59.84. Futures zig-zagged across $60/barrel for WTI until finally settling on the under at week's end. There's still too much oil to support weakening Western economies. Prices need to fall further. Short term noise on the COMEX is speculation and gaming the system. $50 a barrel is a more rational level that may become real during the winter.

The U.S. national average for gas at the pump remained the same as last week, $3.07, according to Gasbuddy.com. Gas prices should continue to decline over the near term and through winter.

California remains the priciest, at $4.66 per gallon, down five cents, followed by Washington ($4.16), lower by another eight cents on the week. Oregon ($3.73), was also down eight cents. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma checking in with the lowest price in about a year, $2.43. Mississippi is next at $2.56. Louisiana ($2.57), Arkansas ($2.58) and Texas ($2.59) follow. The remaining Southeast states are all below $2.80 with the exception of Florida ($2.91).

In the Northeast, prices were higher. All except New Hampshire ($2.91( and Rhode Island ($2.99) were above $3.00, with Pennsylvania ($3.29) easily the highest. Maryland ($3.11) and New York ($3.12) were the next-highest.

In the midwest region, Illinois ($3.23) was joined in the $3.00+ club by West Virginia ($3.01), Indiana ($3.03), Ohio ($3.07), and Michigan ($3.00). At the low end were Nebraska ($2.68) and Kansas ($2.69).

Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in 26 states, a drop of two from last week.

Bitcoin

This week: $95,387.89
Last week: $103,678.70
2 weeks ago: $110,406.10
6 months ago: $103,298.00
One year ago: $90,318.17
Five years ago: $18,697.88

Anybody who can't see the problem with bitcoin and crypto in general needs to wipe the grime from the past month off their rose-colored glasses or maybe take them off and actually smell the stench of dead roses, because that's what bitcoin and crypto are becoming, wilted flowers from a romance gone bad. The "hodlers" have been filing divorce papers via ETFs and elsewhere, with record-setting outflows since the beginning of October and this week, the granddaddy of crypto, Satoshi's own love child, bitcoin, dipped to lows not seen in six months. Notably, the price is only $5,000 higher than it was a year ago. Other than a brief period from the end of February through the beginning of May, bitcoin has been above $95,000 and mostly over $100,000, with everybody from Michael Saylor to Max Keiser predicting new highs of $200,000, $400,000 or more, just as the crypto world began to crater.

This is how Ponzi schemes and other scams end, badly, with recent investors selling out, maybe a few dollars to the good, most taking losses. If you had a bitcoin, it was worth upwards of $124,000 on October 7. Today it's just above $95,000.

Here are some questions and (answers) for anybody who hasn't yet sold their bitcoins or other cryptos (which have performed even worse):

Is there a chance that bitcoin will go back up? (NO)

Is bitcoin a store of value? (NO)

Is anybody using bitcoin to buy essentials? (NO)

Are bitcoin and other cryptos widely adopted in developed countries? (NO)

Is bitcoin still legal tender in El Salvador? (NO)

Should I keep the faith and do like Michael Saylor says, HODL? (Hell NO).

Bitcoin will eventually decline until it gets close to its intrinsic value, which is ZERO, and it may happen rather suddenly. Other "coins" will simply disappear, along with investor money, lots of it. There's already been $1 trillion dilution. More to come.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 80.79; last week: 82.76

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 10/17: $4,267.90
Gold price 10/24: $4,126.90
Gold price 10/31: $4,013.40
Gold price 11/7: $4,007.80
Gold price 11/14: $4,084.40

Silver price 10/17: $50.63
Silver price 10/24: $48.41
Silver price 10/31: $48.25
Silver price 11/7: $48.22
Silver price 11/14: $50.40

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 10/17: $4250.59
Gold 10/24: $4110.63
Gold 10/31: $3997.10
Gold 11/7: $3999.89
Gold 11/14: $4,080.00

Silver 10/17: $51.88
Silver 10/24: $48.59
Silver 10/31: $48.65
Silver 11/7: $48.33
Silver 11/14: $50.50

Gold and silver spent most of the week ramping higher, with silver making a double top at a record price around $54.50. Gold hit a high of $4,245 on Wednesday, but, since stocks were nose-diving, the riggers at the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), saw to it that precious metals were taken out of favor, because, of course, when risk assets fall, non-risk assets should too. Sarcasm aside, the rulers of the currency rathole in the West can't stomach much higher prices for gold and silver, which they've suppressed for decades.

This tampering with the machinery of economics and global finance is not going to end well for the U.S. and its cohorts. Every central bank in the world has been buying gold for the last three years and longer, except the Federal Reserve of the United States and some of the Commonwealth and EU nations. That speaks volumes about the direction of global finance, money, and credit. It's now too late for the West. China, Russia, India, and many other countries are increasing their wealth while the U.S. and Europe continues its moronic sanction regime.

Keep stacking is the advice offered by those most in the know. Sounds like good advice.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	53.00	64.00	56.98	56.00
1 oz silver bar:	51.00	68.95	58.73	58.46
1 oz gold coin:	4,260.97	4,625.16	4,406.34	4,404.65
1 oz gold bar:	4,200.00	4,362.71	4,303.79	4,304.91

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) gained positive ground over the week, to $57.54, a gain of 88 cents from the November 9 price of $56.66 per troy ounce. The small-denomination, physical market continues to add premia to, and depart from, spot.

WEEKEND WRAP

Good luck. After next week comes Thanksgiving and Black Friday, then onwards into the holidays. The claims of the ruling class about affordability and the strength of the economy will not be drowned out by the Salvation Army bells seeking charity. The narrative is about to go into overdrive, just in time for Christmas!

At the Close, Friday, November 14, 2025:
Dow: 47,147.48, -309.74 (-0.65%)
NASDAQ: 22,900.59, +30.23 (+0.13%)
S&P 500: 6,734.11, -3.38 (-0.050%)
NYSE Composite: 21,470.26, -64.14 (-0.30%)

For the Week:
Dow: +160.38 (+0.34%)
NASDAQ: -103.95 (-0.45%)
S&P 500: +5.31 (+0.08%)
NYSE Composite: +61.70 (+0.29%)
Dow Transports: -136.66 (-0.84%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Bitcoin, Crypto Crashing; Stocks Sliding Badly; Government Won't Release October Payrolls, CPI, PPI; Fiat Currencies Are Dying

Just in the past few days, the mood on Wall Street has begun to change and not in a good way. Despite the propaganda that everything is fine, that AI will solve everything, that bitcoin is going to the moon, the reality that U.S. manufacturing isn't reenergized, that tariffs are causing inflation, that the U.S. government - despite ending the ugly, longest-ever shutdown - refuses to tackle its deficit problems, and that the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are going badly for the "good guys", meaning the U.S., Europe, and Israel.

Add to those issues the burgeoning collapse of households struggling with excessive debt, high prices, rising delinquencies on car loans, student loans and credit cards and the makings of a massive liquidity squeeze and a recession are beginning to take shape.

The White House confirmed yesterday that because of the shutdown, October Non-farm payrolls and CPI data would not be released. White House Press Secretary, Caroline Leavitt said Thursday at a press briefing, "The Democrats may have permanently damaged the Federal Statistical System..." which, of course, is pure bunk. The data is out there. The government just doesn't want everybody to know just how bad things are. Leavitt didn't just leave it there, continuing to say, "All of that economic data released will be permanently impaired leaving our policy makers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period."

OK, we get it. The government, other than Democrats, isn't going to be blamed for the collapse of everything because the data is all corrupted or lost. The Fed is off the hook as well. Americans might as well try paddling a rudderless raft upstream through rapids. The government is lying, as usual, covering up what are sure to be horrible economic numbers. They have the data. They just don't want you to know how badly you're being screwed.

And then, there's bitcoin, and the imploding fraud of the crypto universe.

Since October 7, bitcoin is down 23.6%. Ethereum is down 34%. That is just in the past month, and the declines appear to be accelerating.

Crypto-linked equities were hit hard once more, especially miners with heavy AI infrastructure and data center exposure. Bitdeer (BTDR) plunged 19% and Bitfarms (BITF) dropped 13%, while Cipher Mining (CIFR) and IREN lost over 10%. The rest of the crypto equity sector also saw steep losses: Galaxy (GLXY), Bullish (BLSH), Gemini (GEMI) and Robinhood (HOOD) were all down 7%-8%. - Coindesk, 11/13

Top and trending altcoins XRP, Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Zcash (ZEC), and AI coins tumbled 5-12% over the past 24 hours. Meme coins including Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Pepe Coin (PEPE) further erased their earlier gains, with PEPE now down 80% year-to-date (YTD). --Yahoo, 11/14 (Full Story)

Ok, so what is Pepe Coin, anyway? Who is using it? Will my mechanic accept it?

This is the problem. Once blockchain technology became ubiquitous, every scam operator and quick-buck grifter saw the opportunity for ridiculous returns on pure speculation. People like Michael Saylor, Anthony Scaramucci, and the monstrosity that is BlackRock became heavily invested in the bitcoin/crypto myth machine.

Saylor, CEO of Stategy (MSTR, rebranded from Microstrategy), settled with the SEC in 2000, paying $350,000 in penalties and a personal disgorgement of $8.3 million for inaccurate reporting of financial results. In 2024, Saylor settled a tax evasion lawsuit brought by the Attorney General of Washington, D.C. by paying a $40 million fine.

Anthony Scaramucci, probably best known for his 10-day stint (July 21-31, 2017) as White House communications director before being abruptly fired by President Trump, became involved in crypto with his fund, SkyBridge Capital, which invested heavily into various crypto ventures as Scaramucci (the "Mooch") made outrageous pronouncements about bitcoin going to a million dollars or more.

As of March 2023, Skybridge's assets had dwindled to about $2 billion from a peak of $9 billion in 2015. Investors lost about 30% from the beginning of 2020 through March 2023. The fund had reduced the ability of investors to withdraw funds and reduced staffing. Scaramucci recently told investors of a New Orleans hotel that they were facing a 100% loss.

Bitcoin, and the thousands of altcoins, memecoins, stablecoins, and other crypto-related nonsense are based on an "asset class" that has nothing more than a white paper authored by a shadowy figure known only as Satoshi Nakamoto as a basis. There is nothing backing any of it except blind faith and a healthy dose of stupidity. Bitcoin and crypto are likely to go down in history as the greatest scam ever perpetrated, involving trillions of dollars in the "coins" themselves and trillions more in derivative bets.

There's a growing likelihood that the losses in bitcoin and crypto-related endeavors will feed directly into stocks, sending everything down the tubes in a torrent of paper losses, which, at the end of the day, result in real losses to stock portfolios, endowment funds, sovereign wealth funds and every other kind of investment.

Stocks, for what it's worth, have been overvalued for a very long time, probably since the recovery off the lows of the 2008-09 financial crash, and especially since the disastrous events of 2020 and 2021 with COVID.

Now, with investors worried that AI is simply more pie-in-the-sky promises from the usual hucksters and tech barons, a reckoning is underway. At the back of it all is the fractional reserve, fiat monetary system itself, which has reached its ultimate end, the U.S. dollar having lost more than 98% of its purchasing power.

Skeptics will note that gold and silver are being sold off as well. That's a normal function during a liquidity crisis. They will recover. For now, and it's very early, the declines in gold and silver represent buying opportunities for anybody interested in sound money.

Things are heating up...

At the Close, Thursday, November 13, 2025:
Dow: 47,457.22, -797.60 (-1.65%)
NASDAQ: 22,870.36, -536.10 (-2.29%)
S&P 500: 6,737.49, -113.43 (-1.66%)
NYSE Composite: 21,534.40, -272.93 (-1.25%)

Longest Government Shutdown Ends; Gold, Silver Soaring

Counting Wednesday, the longest-ever U.S. government shutdown lasted 42 days, ended after the House rubber-stamped the amended continuing resolution (CR) sent back to them by the Senate, which will keep the lights on until January 30. Some areas were separately funded through what's being called a "minibus", which will guarantee funding for the Department of Agriculture (which administers SNAP, aka food stamps), FDA, military construction, veterans affairs and the legislative branch through Sept. 30, 2026 and also includes a reversal of federal layoffs that the Trump administration executed during the shutdown.

It's worth pointing out that most Democrats in the Senate and the House voted against the measures, which illustrates just how divided the parties are in Washington. The political posture on both sides has become almost dogmatic. Views on how best to operate the government for the good of the American people - or whatever else they may have in mind - are skewed violently by ideology.

Six House Democrats — Reps. Jared Golden (D-ME), Adam Gray (D-CA), Don Davis (D-NC), Henry Cuellar (D-TX), Tom Suozzi (D-NY) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) — and two House Republicans — Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Greg Steube (R-FL) — broke with their caucus on the vote. The votes of Cuellar and Suozzi stand out. They are tools of the deeper state and do the bidding of their supporters and donors rather than representing their local constituencies. That's just how business gets done in D.C.; all it takes is a few sheep straying off the meadow. No doubt there will be finger-pointing and endless recrimination in the Democratic caucus.

Getting on to the business of business, the Dow Industrials have been bid to record highs the past two days while the S&P and, more so, the NASDAQ, have taken a snooze. While the Senate was busy playing footsie the past week, the AI narrative has come under pressure, as more and more analysts are sounding the alarm over enormous sums of money pledged to build out data farms and associated power plants to spread a technology that so far has been short on results, both in its application and revenue production.

Questioning of the financial super-structure underpinning the massive AI rollout has led to recent declines in Mag7 and AI-related stocks. META Platforms (Facebook) has been the hardest hit; others are only slightly below all-time highs.

As the opening bell approaches, stock futures are sliding. Dow futures are off 105; NASDAQ futures down 95, and S&P futures lower by 20 points. Could this be a case of "buy the rumor, sell the news" concerning the shutdown?

Brighter prospects appear for precious metals, which have been on a tear since Monday morning. Silver is up more than 10%, hitting a high on spot markets this morning of $54.45. Gold has been bid as high as $4245.60 this morning.

WTI crude oil was smacked back down into the 50s, hitting a low of $58.22 late Wednesday, but has rallied this morning above $59.

At the Close, Wednesday, November 12, 2025:
Dow: 48,254.82, +326.86 (+0.68%)
NASDAQ: 23,406.45, -61.844 (-0.26%)
S&P 500: 6,850.92, +4.31 (+0.06%)
NYSE Composite: 21,807.33, +90.60 (0.42%)

Widespread Optimism that U.S. Government Will Re-Open on House Vote; U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford Heads to Venezuela; BlackRock Loans Gone Bad

There is widespread optimism that the U.S. government will resume normal operations, as members of the House of Representatives return to Washington, after nearly two months of loafing in their home districts or vacationing on the taxpayer's dime.

While that development may be encouraging, especially to the 42 million Americans waiting for their monthly stipend of food stamps to arrive. Payments have been stalled as the Agriculture Department first ran out of money, then discovered it had contingency funds but wasn't allowed ot use them. After that two separate district courts ordered the Trump administration to disperse the funds, which would ostensibly only cover about 65% of the normal allotment. Since then, last week, there's been no movement, as now, fully benefits are likely to be restored. Any day now.

While Wall Street focuses on the government re-opening story there's a few no so "feel-good" issues developing.

Bloomberg reports that China abruptly halted its promised buying of 12 million tons of soybeans this year, with farmers saying there haven't been any purchases since an initial rush of orders in October, following President Trump's "deal" with China for this year and 25 million tons each year for the next three years.

The U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier, along with its entourage of battleships, destroyers, fighter jets and a nuclear sub, has entered Caribbean waters and is steaming toward the coast of Venezuela, the maneuver designed to frighten Presidente Maduro into resigning and/or give up vast reserves of its oil to American producers. Meanwhile, two Russian naval ships, the frigate Admiral Gorshkov and the oil tanker Akademik Pashin, recently docked in Venezuela's La Guaira port after conducting exercises in the Atlantic Ocean. Good thing the government is open. Those sailors and airmen like to get paid.

In finance land, BlackRock recently wrote down $150 million in lending by one of its affiliates on loans to failed companies, Broadband Telecom and Bridgevoice. Additionally, BlackRock zeroed out $150 million loan to home improvement firm, Renovo. The company has filed Charter 7 bankruptcy, liquidating its assets.

Hey, but, AI, right? Gonna save the world.

Plates are still spinning...

At the Close, Tuesday, November 11, 2025:
Dow: 47,927.96, +559.33 (+1.18%)
NASDAQ: 23,468.30, -58.87 (-0.25%)
S&P 500: 6,846.61, +14.18 (+0.21%)
NYSE Composite: 21,716.73, +150.32 (+0.70%)

Federal Government to Re-Open, Possibly Today; Veteran's Remembered; Gold, Silver Resume Rally

Who knew that reopening the government was such a great thing?

Apparently, allowing congress, the president, and the enormous bureaucracy to get back to the business of bankrupting the country and continuing to devalue the currency has plenty of backers, including, not just Wall Street stock market enthusiasts, but hoarders and stackers of precious metals as well.

With the Senate apparently on course to resolve the shutdown dynamics and keep the lights on until at least the end of January, the federal government should be back humming right along as early as today if House Speaker Mike Johnson can assemble enough members for a quorum and a vote on the cosmetic changes to the continuing resolution they passed back in September.

There are some added details, such as reversing President Trump's firings of furloughed workers along with back pay, a 'minibus' that would fund military construction, the VA, the legislative branch, agriculture, and the FDA, funding for food stamps (SNAP) through fiscal 2026 (September 30, 2026), and a promise to vote on extending Obamacare subsidies sometime in December.

The general consensus among the punditry is that the Democrats caved once food riots didn't take place, but the nation's airlines began to suffer delays and cancellations at various important destinations. It wasn't a complete takedown, however. The only Democrats willing to cross the aisle and make a deal were those not running for re-election in 2026.

The breakdown:

• John Fetterman, Pennsylvania
• Angus King (Ind.), Maine
• Dick Durbin, Illinois
• Maggie Hassan, New Hampshire
• Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire
• Tim Kaine, Virginia
• Catherine Cortez Masto, Nevada
• Jackie Rose, Nevada

Dick Durbin and Jeanne Shaheen are retiring. Fetterman and Cortez Masto aren't up for re-election until 2028. The remaining four aren't up for re-election until 2030. Surely, their constituents and donors will have completely forgotten about this episode of putting pragmatism over politics by then.

So, with a whimper, the longest government shutdown in America's glorious history will end roughly around the same time as World War I, on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month, or, something like that.

Positive prospects for the re-opening of the government pushed stocks forward, but were surprisingly bullish for gold and silver. Gold was up more than $140 on the day, with silver advancing more than four percent, with spot prices rising from $48.33 to $50.50. Both metals are higher Tuesday morning, as the reality of a resumption of overspending by congress strikes home.

With stocks having recovered most of the losses from last week in one fell swoop, traders may be taking a break on Tuesday. Stock futures are lower for the NASDAQ and S&P, Dow futures showing a slim gain of less than 20 points as the opening bell approaches.

Crude oil prices are slightly higher, but WTI continues to gravitate towards $60/barrel or lower. Good news for home heaters and auto drivers.

So, with the shutdown apparently nearing an end and the AI blowout having reached terminal madness, what will they think of next to get the muppets to buy more stocks?

At the Close, Monday, November 10, 2025:
Dow: 47,368.63, +381.53 (+0.81%)
NASDAQ: 23,527.17, +522.64 (+2.27%)
S&P 500: 6,832.43, +103.63 (+1.54%)
NYSE Composite: 21,566.41, +157.85 (+0.74%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Friday's "Dip and Rip" and the Myth of Free Markets; Patience Equals Prosperity for Precious Metals Stackers

Stocks were being sold off like ten-cent tarts at a church bake sale Friday, until heavy-handed market manipulators came to their rescue, turning what looked to be a washout into a minor loss on the NASDAQ and a plus-side finish on the Dow and S&P.

Not that this was the first time stocks reversed course or at all unusual. The practice of pumping stocks when they seem to be falling into a void has been a feature of equity exchanges in Europe and the U.S. for decades. The practice of "supporting your stock" is as old as the 1929 crash and puts the lie to what are supposed to be "free and fair" markets.

The harsh reality is that there's absolutely nothing free nor fair about equity markets. They are controlled by the biggest banks and brokerages, giant holding companies like Berkshire-Hathaway, BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street, and given additional support by the New York Fed's trading desk, the government's Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) and the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (colloquially known as the Plunge Protection Team, or PPT), created by President Reagan after the 1987 stock market crash.

Individual investors that haven't been bankrupted by the antics of the big money rollers can only hope to pick stocks they believe will do well and go along for the ride. Fundamentals and valuations have not mattered for a very long time. The ultimate goal of the stock market insiders is to keep stocks going higher and higher, and to keep everybody in the game by projecting strength and vitality in American - and European - enterprise.

Friday's "dip and rip" was just another in a long history of sudden reversals. It should be noted that stocks almost never make similar moves off highs intra-day. In other words, stocks don't normally zoom up and then reverse to the downside. That goes against the narrative and doesn't benefit the financial industrial complex that controls Western economies. Stock markets are inexorably tied to nations, as if the health and wealth of mega-corporations are the only things that matter. It's complete bull hockey and probably will never end. The Federal Reserve pumps money into financial markets on a regular basis and the entire structure of the Western financial system has become dependent on keeping stocks elevated and going forever higher and higher, just as the purchasing power of the underlying currencies - euros, pounds, dollars, yen - collapses.

As hyper-inflation becomes embedded into daily life, expect stocks to just fly to new levels of exhilarating excess. It happened in Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe. It will happen in Europe, Japan, the UK, and the United States. It's nearly a mathematical certainty and why short-sellers regularly are carried out on stretchers during the rare, brief downturns in the markets. There hasn't been an actual bear market since 2008, which, incidentally, was when the entire global financial system imploded for good. Since then, it's just been fraud after fraud, control freaks freaking and geeking, and stocks to the moon. Meanwhile, the economies of Western nations have been crumbling. Standards of living have fallen. Housing has become unaffordable. Food costs are now threatening to bankrupt the middle class.

Wealth disparity is at levels never seen before, not during the gilded age, the 1920s, or any other time in recorded history. The top 10 percent of the population in the U.S. owns 87% of all stocks. 42 million Americans are on food assistance (SNAP) and the government is doing its level best to deprive them of that.

The average interest rate on credit cards is now 24%, but, corporations can borrow at 3-5% and banks, well, 0.50%. Outstanding student loans are now $1.8 trillion. Those loans are federally-mandated and federally administered, but, college degrees, outside of engineering and the sciences, are virtually worthless. The same federal government has decreed that those loans are not dischargeable in bankruptcy. Thank Bill Clinton for that.

Not choosing sides, the current government shutdown is now in its 40th day, the longest in history. The whole thing is a psy-op. Both sides, both parties were in on it from the start. The goal, whatever it may be, is probably not going to be to the liking of most Americans. The government is conditioning the populace for something bigger, much like they did with COVID. Maybe martial law. Maybe something worse.

On the Sunday talk shows, not a word was spoken about the delayed SNAP funding. That 42 million Americans rely on government aid in order to eat is a national disgrace, but, the government conditioned these people, over generations in some cases, to expect a monthly stipend, a hand-out, and now it's been delayed and soon will be denied. Meanwhile, reducing air traffic by 10% borders on a national disaster according to the media. Oh, people can't travel? Boo-hoo. Try not eating for a few days and see how that works out.

If you're not already fully disgusted with the U.S. congress and the entirety of the federal government - the president and the courts included - you're either willfully ignorant, probably suffering from TDS or normalcy bias that is keeping you from seeing the reality of the situation. The U.S. government, like the government in the UK, EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, and elsewhere, isn't there to protect or enforce your rights or to provide for the general welfare of the people. These governments are there to feed off your wealth, to impoverish you for the benefit of the elected officials and the donor class, to further the beaurocracy,and to keep the open wage and tax slave plantation operating. It's as simple as that. Wake the F-- up.

Financialization has destroyed Europe, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia, and the United States.

The BRICS are thriving while Western nations shrivel up and die. Deal with it.

Stocks

The Friday dip and flip kept stocks from suffering severe damage, scaring investors, and possibly causing further flight from the AI bubble, tech bubble, all-stocks-all-the-time bubble. What caused stocks to turn on a dime and head higher was purported to be some kind of deal in the Senate to end the government shutdown. Even though the news was out by 2:00 pm ET that the Republicans had rejected the Democrats' proposal without so much as a vote, stocks continued to rally through the end of the session.

The Democrat proposal to vote for to fund the government if the Republicans agreed to a one-year extension of Obamacare tax credits wasn't even close. It was more theatrics. There was nothing real about the Friday afternoon rally. It was 100% fake.

On Friday, the Dow was down more than 400 points just after noon, but rallied to finish 74 points to the upside. The S&P had dropped 89 points. It closed up eight. The unlucky NASDAQ was down 490 points. It closed down 49, effectively cancelling out 90% of the day's losses. It was an object lesson in the lie of free markets and the financial equivalent of saving face in front of the whole world.

Generally speaking, stocks are so wickedly overvalued only those with a vested interest in keeping their valuations at nose-bleed levels for their own satisfaction should own them. People who hold them in 401k plans or otherwise should run, full speed, away from these corrupt markets and nver look back. Going along for the free ride is only going to end in tears and recriminations.

For anybody still interested, a number of stocks will be reporting third quarter earnings this coming week. While that's all well and good, whatever profits or losses are reported should bear in mind that the longer the government shutdown extends, the more horrific will be fourth quarter results.

Keep in mind that the first estimate of third quarter GDP was not reported as it usually is, on the last Thursday of October, because the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis isn't working because of the shutdown. Thus, there's no indication of whether the third quarter was good, bad, or indifferent. It was probably bad, which is yet another reason the government chose to shut itself down. After a while, it should begin to become obvious that the government shutdown isn't about funding the government for another few weeks or subsidies for families stuck in the (un)Affordable Care Act maelstrom. It's about taking a wrecking ball to everything the government touches and turns into fecal matter. This is a shutdown unlike others. Americans better get used to not relying on Uncle Sam to be there in times of need or even in normal times. Normal has been eliminated. There is no normal. There is only chaos, sown by the government to the detriment of the people.

The government and the propaganda mainstream media want the public to believe that reopening the government will be an improvement over it being shut down when the exact opposite is true. The government and its $38 trillion in debt needs to be permanently put to rest, power returned to the states and to the people. Holding faithfully onto financial assets, as opposed to hard assets like silver, gold, machinery, self-owned business assets, and real estate (which is actually only rented from the government - see your local tax bill), is sheer lunacy.

Here are the big, publicly-owned (where 1 share equals 1/10,000,000,000th ownership or worse) companies reporting in the week ahead:

Monday, November 10: (before open) Instacart (CART), Vonage (VG), Barrick (B); (after close) Plug Power (PLUG)

Tuesday, November 11: (before open) Orla Mining (ORLA); (after close) Oklo (OKLO)

Wednesday, November 12: (before open) Autolus (AUTL), Innovis Technologies (INVZ); (after close) Cisco Systems (CSCO)

Thursday, November 13: (before open) Walt Disney (DIS), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), JD.com (JD), Gambling.com (GAMB); (after close) Applied Materials (AMAT), Beazer Homes (BZH).

Don't expect life in the United States to improve, though stocks may rally - or not - despite your personal pessimism. At this stage of the game, virtually anything is possible.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
10/03/2025	4.24	4.17	4.11	4.03	3.96	3.82	3.64
10/10/2025	4.19	4.16	4.10	4.02	3.96	3.81	3.60
10/17/2025	4.18	4.15	4.08	4.00	3.95	3.79	3.56
10/24/2025	4.11	4.06	4.02	3.93	3.89	3.76	3.58
10/31/2025	4.06	4.02	4.04	3.89	3.87	3.79	3.70
11/07/2025	4.01	3.96	3.98	3.92	3.83	3.76	3.63

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
10/03/2025	3.58	3.59	3.72	3.90	4.13	4.69	4.71
10/10/2025	3.52	3.52	3.65	3.83	4.05	4.60	4.63
10/17/2025	3.46	3.47	3.59	3.78	4.02	4.58	4.60
10/24/2025	3.48	3.49	3.61	3.79	4.02	4.56	4.59
10/31/2025	3.60	3.60	3.71	3.89	4.11	4.65	4.67
11/07/2025	3.55	3.57	3.67	3.87	4.11	4.68	4.70

Honestly, interest rates don't really matter much under current conditions unless you're an active bond trader and they are subject to tinkering by the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department exercising what might be called "yield curve control" or YCC. The separate bodies can work in unison to achieve certain results. Under the current regimes, there is an ongoing attempt to lower rates, though the long end, dominated by so called "bond vigilantes" has not complied, with rates moving higher even in the face of back-to-back FOMC rate cuts. The Fed has surrendered its integrity and continues to be torn between saving the economy and saving the currency. It is currently losing on both fronts. The general economy is in tatters and the currency has lost 98% of its purchasing power since 1913. The rising spreads are indicating expectations for improving financial conditions, but a return of high inflation along with it.

For what it's worth, 2s-10s spreads expanded to +56 while full spectrum ripped up to +69, matching a double high in June. The instant indication is toward improvement in business conditions along with inflation at the consumer and producer level. Regionals banks are finding out how fragile their commercial real estate portfolios are with defaults and write-downs on financed real estate continuing to escalate.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69

Oil/Gas

WTI crude closed out the week at $59.84, a $1.04 decline from last Friday's close of $60.88. Futures were lower every day except Friday, catching a tailwind from the stock-buying binge. Remember how Russia was going to suffer from the new sanctions on their two biggest oil companies? That's all been relegated to the trash heap of history. The U.S. and Europe don't actually control any markets anymore. The BRICS, especially India, China, Russia, Iran, and increasingly, Indonesia, are taking hold of the global economy and shaping it to their liking.

The U.S. national average for gas at the pump was up a nickel, to $3.07, according to Gasbuddy.com, though that number would appear to be an anomaly. Gas prices should continue to decline the longer the government shutdown continues, the economy contracts, and demand is slashed.

California remains the priciest, at $4.71 per gallon, up five cents, followed by Washington ($4.24), lower by another five cents on the week. Oregon ($3.81), was down another four cents. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Mississippi sharing the low price point at $2.53. Tennessee ($2.56) and Texas ($2.58) follow. The remaining Southeast states are all below $2.84 (Florida).

In the Northeast, prices were higher. All except New Hampshire ($2.93), Rhode Island ($2.97) and New Jersey ($2.99) were at or above $3.00, with Pennsylvania ($3.24) easily the highest. New York and Maryland are the closest ($3.11).

In the midwest region, Illinois ($3.27) was joined in the $3.00+ club by Indiana ($3.02), West Virginia ($3.05), Ohio ($3.07), and Michigan ($3.11). At the low end were Colorado ($2.68) and Missouri ($2.72).

Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in 28 states, a sharp drop of seven from last week.

Bitcoin

This week: $103,678.70
Last week: $110,406.10
2 weeks ago: $113,471.40
6 months ago: $103,161.70
One year ago: $78,990.80
Five years ago: $17,734.38

In case the diamond-handed haven't noticed, bitcoin first crossed over $100,000 in early December of last year. Those who bought at levels above $103,000, have made no gains for the past 11 months, and are, instead, losing bitcoin. All of crypto will eventually be discarded. It only serves the master-slave arrangement as a ready depository for dodgy funds and criminal activity, much of which is carried out by banks and governments. Bitcoin hasn't been legal tender in El Salvador since February of this year and isn't legal tender anywhere else, except maybe the Maldives or Pago-Pago or places where nobody actually lives.

With liquidity becoming a real issue, bitcoin and other cryptos will be sold off for greenbacks and stocks, but the smart money will go into gold and silver.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 82.76; last week: 82.16

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 10/10: $4,035.50
Gold price 10/17: $4,267.90
Gold price 10/24: $4,126.90
Gold price 10/31: $4,013.40
Gold price 11/7: $4,007.80

Silver price 10/10: $47.51
Silver price 10/17: $50.63
Silver price 10/24: $48.41
Silver price 10/31: $48.25
Silver price 11/7: $48.22

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 10/17: $4250.59
Gold 10/24: $4110.63
Gold 10/31: $3997.10
Gold 11/7: $3999.89

Silver 10/17: $51.88
Silver 10/24: $48.59
Silver 10/31: $48.65
Silver 11/7: $48.33

(Kitko)
Gold 10/19: Bid: $4,250.80; Ask: $4,252.80
Gold 10/26: Bid: $4,111.20; Ask: $4,113.20
Gold 10/31: Bid: $4001.10; Ask: $4,003.10
Gold 11/7: Bid: $3,999.60; Ask: $4,001.60

Silver 10/19: Bid: $51.86; Ask: $51.98
Silver 10/26: Bid: $48.53; Ask: $48.65
Silver 10/31: Bid: $48.60; Ask: $48.72
Silver 11/7: Bid: $48.23; Ask: $48.35

Gold and silver were under pressure, though not significantly. Gold remains stuck right around $4,000, and silver just below $50. As most hardened advocates of hard money understand, patience equals prosperity. These levels provide solid entry points for accumulation of real money. Eventually, prices will not be expressed in dollar amounts, but in ounces, which is all that matters.

It's fairly evident that the gold stored in Fort Knox and elsewhere in the United States is not unencumbered, having been lent out and re-hypothecated quite frequently over the past 80-odd years. The United States has not added to its gold stores in many, many years and will soon reap what it has sown. In terms of ounces of gold and silver held by the government, businesses, and individuals, Western nations are among the poorest on the planet. This fact will become self-evident in coming years. The current government shutdown is merely a symptom of the underlying monetary problem of fiat currency and fractional reserve banking, which are failing.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	53.61	59.99	56.80	56.50
1 oz silver bar:	54.02	59.95	56.75	56.59
1 oz gold coin:	4,116.87	4,466.30	4,314.36	4,343.22
1 oz gold bar:	4,106.00	4,272.79	4,212.57	4,225.00

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) gained positive ground over the week, to $56.66, a a gain of 48 cents from the November 2nd price of $56.18 per troy ounce. The small-denomination, physical market continues to add premia to, and depart from, spot.

WEEKEND WRAP

This quote by Samuel Adams seems an appropriate way to wrap up this week in the evolving Age of Delusion.

“If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen.”

At the Close, Friday, November 7, 2025:
Dow: 46,987.10, +74.80 (+0.16%)
NASDAQ: 23,004.54, -49.46 (-0.21%)
S&P 500: 6,728.80, +8.48 (+0.13%)
NYSE Composite: 21,408.55, +120.11 (+0.56%)

For the Week:
Dow: -575.77 (-1.21%)
NASDAQ: -720.42 (-3.04%)
S&P 500: -111.40 (-1.63%)
NYSE Composite: -51.03 (-0.24%)
Dow Transports: +319.05 (+2.01)

Government Shutdown Having Adverse Effects on U.S. Economy and Stock Market; Venezuela Invasion on Hold; Gold, Silver Advancing

Normally, the first Friday of the month would offer the BLS release of non-farm payroll data for the prior month, but, with the government shutdown now at 38 days and counting, the BLS staff has been furloughed and all of the usual data drops simply aren't happening.

Oddly enough, the president saw fit to keep some of the number-crunchers working as the shutdown began. Back on October 24, a skeleton crew produced the September CPI figures, which showed an uptick of inflation to an annual rate of 3.0% and a monthly increase of 0.3%. The numbers were considered important enough to keep market-watchers happy, and it certainly did the trick, as the interpretation was supposedly that since the figures were below Wall Street's expectations, everything was just fine, or, the higher numbers gave the Fed a solid rationale to lower the federal funds rate, which they did the following Wednesday. Stocks were up on the 24th, a Friday. After the Fed's rate hike, stocks were satiated to a degree, though there was disappointment when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expressed an opinion putting a further 0.25% rate cut in December in doubt.

So, for the second month in a row, there will be no non-farm payroll report, which, in a way, is refreshing, since the BLS data is usually so corrupted and massaged, it normally gets revised the following month, and again, on an annual basis, usually resulting in job numbers well below those originally reported. The BLS has been a great boon to politicians wishing to show a strong, vibrant U.S. economy when the reality is often vastly different.

Thus, interested parties had to rely on the ADP Employment Report for October, released on Wednesday, which showed an uptick in private employment to 42,000, with small and mid-sized companies shedding jobs and companies with more than 500 employees adding.

"Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year. Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced."

-- Dr. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP

As the government remains in shutdown mode, Senate Democrats have been huddling, seeking to find a suitable solution to reopen the government without betraying their priorities. The current scuttlebutt has Republican leader, John Thune, calling for a 15th vote on the House bill on Friday. The Democrats have reportedly culled together a plan that would make changes to the House bill, that, if passed, would require the new legislation to go back to the House for reconciliation. It's likely, even if something comes of this new tactic today, over the weekend, or early next week, that the government might reopen, but there's uncertainty that the House would agree. They've been out of session since late September, and Speaker Mike Johnson has repeatedly said that he won't reconvene the chamber until the Senate passes the bill already before them. Changes to the bill, would, naturally, force the Speaker to call the House back to session.

With all that baggage, the shutdown is beginning to affect stocks and the general economy. 40 airports have already announced a reduction in the number of arrivals and departures due to staffing problems with unpaid air-traffic controllers. SNAP, the food stamps program, still has not been funded for November, though President Trump has agreed to comply with a court order forcing him to release contingency funds. However, the Agriculture Department, which handles the program, says its funds will only cover about two-thirds of the usual benefits and that making the changes to millions of food stamp accounts at the state level will take some time. Meanwhile, food banks are being overwhelmed across the country, as SNAP recipients have been forced to seek hand-outs elsewhere.

At the same time, there are roughly 750,000 federal employees who have missed paychecks since early October, putting strain on their personal lives and family budgets. The military is being funded with money that was earmarked for other projects, which, for the time being, are on hold, the money being used to pay soldiers, sailors, airmen, and civilian military contractors.

Those issues are beginning to become concerning to Wall Street, as the flow of capital is being negatively affected. Adding to their anguish are concerns that the AI boom may have resulted in some overpricing of tech stocks (no, really?). The air is slowly beginning to come out of the tech bubble. Stocks have suffered this week especially.

Through Thursday's close, the Dow Industrials were down 650 points for the week; the NASDAQ had shed nearly three percent, or, 670 points; and the S&P 500 was down 120 points. A few Mag7 stocks were under pressure. Meta Platforms (META) is off 4.5% through Thursday's close; Nvidia (NVDA) is off by more than seven percent.

As the opening bell approaches for the final session of the week, things aren't looking very rosy for the Wall Street faithful. Just beofre 9:00 am ET, Dow futures are down 140 points, NASDAQ futures are lower by 176, and S&P futures are down 31.

Bitcoin dipped below $100,000 again this morning after a few days of "whale boating" took the price off Wednesday’s lows just above $99,000 back up to $104,000 and change. Social media sites, especially X, have been inundated with all manner of postings featuring Michael Saylor, Tom Lee, and ARK Invest's Cathie Wood, touting bitcoin projections of anywhere from $400,000 to over a million dollars within months or by 2030. The lid is off the crypto Pandora's Box. Along with declines of close to 20% for bitcoin, other crypto coins have fallen even further over the past month, with Ether down 28%, and Cardano off $39%.

WTI crude oil continues to weaken as the prospect for higher prices due to sanctions against Russian oil companies has failed to scare anybody. China and India have continued uninterrupted purchases of Russian crude. The U.S. and European Union gambit - like all of the previous 17 tranches of sanctions - has failed miserably. WTI crude is holding around $60/barrel, but prospects for higher prices are slim to none.

Gold and silver are showing showing resilience, with gold back above $4,000 and silver closing in again on $50, after the U.S. announced that silver was added to the strategic metals list and China placed limits on silver exports.

Things are beginning to get interesting, so this may not be the optimal time to launch an invasion on Venezuela.

At the Close, Thursday, November 6, 2025:
Dow: 46,912.30, -398.70 (-0.84%)
NASDAQ: 23,053.99, -445.80 (-1.90%)
S&P 500: 6,720.32, -75.97 (-1.12%)
NYSE Composite: 21,288.44, -73.13 (-0.34%)

Federal Reserve Has Injected $125 Billion in Five Days to Shore Up Bank Liquidity; Government Shutdown Costing $5 Billion a Day

On Friday, October 31, the Federal Reserve injected $29.4 billion into repo markets, shoring up dwindling bank reserves, but since then, the number has grown substantially, to the point at which the Fed has pumped in a total of $125 billion in just five days October 31 - November 4).

That's a rather large sum of money - about $360 for every American citizen - and it indicates the degree of stress and lack of liquidity in financial markets. Money is being drained from the system by various means, some of it related to the government shutdown, now the longest in U.S. history, which some people suggest is costing the economy $5 billion per day. The math almost adds up. With the government shutdown now in its 37th day, at a rate of $5 billion per day, that would amount to $185 billion.

Maybe the $5 billion per day number isn't quite right, but it appears to be close. Without adequate money flows, from people to businesses to banks and vice versa, with the government acting as a kind of middleman, the system seizes up and money stops flowing. Stress is usually experienced at the margins, with poor people the first to notice. Suspension of SNAP benefits for November are beginning to have an effect in poor communities, with food banks and private charities seeking to fill the void, but, since the government isn't very good at partial measures - recent court decisions have forced the government to use emergency funds though they're only enough to supply roughly two-thirds of the usual $9 billion a month - rejiggering 42 million individual accounts at state levels isn't going to happen overnight.

Thus, the money that usually flows through the system is caught in a bottleneck of the government's own making. While it is shameful that so many Americans need to receive assistance just to buy groceries, the overall effect of choking off the flow of funds affects not only the people who receive the money, but small merchants, grocery chains, and food providers all the way up to corporations like Tyson Foods, Pepsico, Yum! Brands and Coca-Cola, eventually showing up as decreasing deposits at commercial banks, which is why the Fed has stepped in to fill the void so aggressively.

But, what about December, January, and beyond? And what about all the government employees that have been furloughed or are working without pay? The usual flow of money has been adversely affected by the government shutdown and it doesn't seem to be anywhere near being resolved. After a while, investors will begin to notice, which is why stocks and crypto issues went south on Tuesday. Albeit a little overdue to reflect on the ground reality, people and institutions are beginning to sense that the problems in financial markets are deeper and more structural than monetary easing by the Fed can handle.

Tuesday's predictable deat cat bounce supplied some temporary relief in the stock markets, but the indices began to swoon as the session drew to a close. While the S&P 500 did manage to finish ahead by 24 points, it was up nearly 60 just prior to 2:00 pm ET. Not everybody was sold on the idea of buying the dip or that the economy is fundamentally sound, probably because it's not. The U.S. economy is weak and it gets weaker every day the government shutdown continues, and maybe that's the point. Maybe the government has finally decided to throw up its hands and declare that it cannot continue on the long path of debt and deficits, inflation and growing poverty that has become endemic. Maybe they won't reopen the government after all, though one wonders how the neocons in congress and the administration plan on funding the bombing of Venezuela... and Ukraine... and Gaza.

To be perfectly honest, the U.S. government isn't fully shut down, only the parts deemed non-essential, which raises the question, if they're not essential, why are we paying for them in the first place? Beyond that casual observation, the IRS is still functioning, so there is some tax money coming in, and Treasury auctions continue, so the government hasn't stopped borrowing. There's some money coming in, but, not as much. The kicker is that some expenses have been curtailed, for now, so Treasury Secretary Bessent has plenty of wiggle room to move money to wherever it is needed. Such a deal!

Approaching the open, stock futures are modestly higher based on the notion that spiraling corporate layoffs due to AI are increasing the odds for a December rate cut. Seriously, you can't make this stuff up. Could it be that corporate layoffs are due to business slowing and not AI? Maybe? And, so, that would be bad for stocks, no? Um, no, layoffs reduce overhead, leading to higher profits, but, rate cuts, too. The goal here is to have robots and AI bots doing all the work, Americans out on the streets, the federal funds rate at 0.25% and stocks to the moon.

Makes perfect sense.

Gold and silver are rebounding. China has tightened export controls on silver, along with tungsten and antimony. Spot silver is bid at $48.33. Spot gold, $4,006.80. WTI crude futures, after a few days in the 60s, is back down to $59.79.

At the Close, Wednesday, November 5, 2025:
Dow: 47,311.00, +225.76 (+0.48%)
NASDAQ: 23,499.80, +151.16 (+0.65%)
S&P 500: 6,796.29, +24.74 (+0.37%)
NYSE Composite: 21,361.57, +78.86 (+0.37%)

Bitcoin and Crypto Have No Utility; U.S. Government Needs to Cease and Desist from Its Pursuit of StableCoin Crypto Utopia Because It Doesn't Exist

Bitcoin has been taking a beating of late, and, on Tuesday, it got beaten like a rented mule, from $107,000 down to $99,095.

It was the first time Bitcoin had not been priced in six digits since early May. At that time it was quickly recovering from some turbulent trading that had sent the price tumbling from $105,000 in late January down as low as $75,000 during the first tariff scare in early April, so, it appears that the alternative to the fiat US dollar is subject to wild swings valuation based on political activity.

One question that really needs to be addressed by the crypto crowd concerns the ultimate utility of bitcoin and the thousands of other "alt-coins" and various vacuous specie traversing the ether. Just what is the point of an electronic currency that has, over its 16 years of existence, failed to engender mass adoption, is owned largely by "whales" and institutional money managers like BlackRock or the inscrctible MicroStrategy of Michael Saylor, or even the government of El Salvador?

Taking the example of El Salvador as a prime example of its lack of traction, the government of that Central American country had mandated bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, yet, after four years of the public eschewing its use at the retail or wholesale level, the government, with little fanfare and even less coverage in the financial media, backed away from the failed experiment in February of this year. The exceptional experience of an entire nation rejecting use of the "miracle in the void" should have served as proof enough that bitcoin, and, by inference, the entire crypto-universe of tokens, alt-coins, NFTs, and stablecoins needs to be relegated to the scrapheap of history.

Crypto has no utility.

Say it again: crypto has no utility.

It is nothing but idle speculation with excess capital amidst the biggest financial bubble in the history of mankind. The followers - cultists, really - continue to cling to debunked notions that it is anonymous, private, peer-to-peer, trustless, frictionless money. Tell that to anybody who's bought, sold, or traded any kind of crypto-currency over any of the exchanges like Coinbase or Binance. There's absolutely nothing private about it at all, transacting in crypto is a pretty large pain in the behind overall, there are fees for every transaction, and people routinely lose control of "their" crypto, via scams, missing keys, theft, and all kinds of other misanthropic misadventures.

Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto space is imploding, while at the same time the U.S. government has promoted a crypto sovereign fund and use of stablecoins as a means fo salvation from its $38 trillion debt abyss. The dealings of President Trump, his two sons, Eric and Don Jr., crypto czar David Sacks and certain Senators - particularly Senator Cynthia Lumis of Wyoming - need to be scrutinized, not by congress (many of whom back the Ponzi stablecoin scheme) or any government regulators, but by the American public, because attempting to establish crypto as legal tender or currency in America reeks of insider dealing and malfeasance.

After all, bitcoin was tested in El Salvador. What makes the U.S. government think it can make it work on a much larger scale when it was completely rejected in a trial run. Are American politicians smarter than the people of El Salvador? They probably think they are, yet they've proven to be among the most deceptive, larcenous, traitorous assemblage in the history of politics, and that includes some very, very unsavory creatures.

Senator Cynthia Lumis of Wyoming needs to be run out of town on a rail.

So too, the Trump brothers, Eric and Don Jr. and the president's crypto czar, David Sacks and while we're at it, Treasury Secretary Bessent and the president himself, for guiding America to being the "crypro capital of the world," which is simple shorthand for the biggest financial fraud since John Law's Louisiana ventures.

Blackrock's Larry Fink should be in a federal prison. As CEO of Blackrock, he's responsible for some of the worst financial deals of this or any decade. Led along by Michael Saylor, a convicted felon, the U.S. government - still shut down after 35 days, now the longest in history - has perpetrated massive malinvestment and malfeasance. Isn't it time to flush out all the fraud that encompasses the "crypto industry" and start naming names, ridding the financial industry of the grifters, thieves, and con men, including a good number of Senators and House Representatives, and getting back to sound money, like silver and gold, upon which the United States of America was founded?

To think that the U.S. government would go so far as to establish a "crypto sovereign fund", pass the GENIUS Act, enabling more corruption and burning of the nation's wealth, and have the support of both parties in enabling "stablecoins" as a means to pay down the $38 trillion in government debt, is in any way the actions of a responsible government would be tantamount to calling Bernie Madoff a "square dealer."

While the U.S. government is shut down, it's probably a good idea to keep it that way. After all, should they re-open, all they'll do is spend money they don't have on projects that are already proven failures. The people who populate the environs of the United States of America would be far better off without any government of any kind, federal, state or local, than the amalgamation of misguided takers that encompass the entirety of the government leviathan bureaucracy.

Americans need to face up to the reality that the country is at a very dangerous turning point, at the brink of failure, mostly due to the lack of discipline at the very height of government, in the Senate, House, White House and the Supreme Court. For mercy's sake, they cannot balance a budget and now they can't even keep the lights on. American people need to prepare for the worst, because, whether intentional or accidental, it matters not, the managers of the government are either completely incompetent or entirely corrupt, and probably both.

Looking ahead, it's hard to imagine the NASDAQ rebounding from Tuesday's bloodbath, but there will be a concerted effort made by the usual suspects to put a happy face on the market.

With the opening bell on Wall Street just moments away, futures are flat-lining, bitcoin has revived from $99,000 to $103,000. There's likely to be a dead cat bounce Wednesday, but, in the end, the cat is still dead, the government is still closed, and America is failing on many levels.

At the Close, Tuesday, November 4, 2025:
Dow: 47,085.24, -251.44 (-0.53%)
NASDAQ: 23,348.64, -486.09 (-2.04%)
S&P 500: 6,771.55, -80.42 (-1.17%)
NYSE Composite: 21,282.71, -133.88 (-0.63%)

A Perfect Liquidity Storm: Billions Squeezed Out of Crypto, SNAP, Government Paychecks, Stocks; As Fed Injects $29 Billion

Shades of 1929 are occurring in the crypto space and elsewhere.

Crypto liquidation occurs when a trader's position is automatically closed by an exchange due to insufficient margin to cover losses, often resulting from leveraged trading.

Crypto liquidation refers to the forced closure of a trader's position when their margin account falls below the required maintenance level. This typically happens in leveraged trading, where traders borrow funds to increase their exposure to a cryptocurrency asset. If the market moves against the trader's position, leading to significant losses, the exchange will liquidate the position to recover the borrowed funds and prevent further losses.

In the Great Crash of 1929, margin calls forced leveraged speculators to raise more cash to cover their outstanding debt on money borrowed to invest in stocks. As stock prices fell, large and small speculators alike were bankrupted in September and October of 1929 and beyond. The margin calls created a vicious loop of forced selling that eventually spilled over into the general economy. Individuals and institutions that had been living lavishly suddenly had insufficient cash to buy much more than a day's meals or a month's rent. The lack of spending by parties that had formerly been supporting the economic growth of the 1920s - among other factors - fed directly into the general impoverishment of the Great Depression.

Similarities between the boom of 1928 and bust of 1929 can be made to current conditions. The crypto market and the tech-led NASDAQ have been built up by speculators, buying ephemeral crypto issues and tech stocks with pie-in-the-sky valuations on promises of some AI-induced economic miracle by which nobody works and everybody is rich. A similar condition existed in the late 1920s, when a strong economy was producing excess income, as bankers and brokers advised everybody from shoeshine buys to retail clerks into buying stocks on margin, leveraging their returns.

It all worked quite well when stocks were going up, day after day, month after month, but the market, as always, delivered a stern correction on the way down. At first, the selling was characterized as "normal, healthy pullbacks" or "profit-taking" and stocks shrugged off losing sessions and charged ahead.

That was the first warning shot.

Next, institutional spokespeople from the Federal Reserve, the stock exchanges, and the government began making off-the-cuff remarks about the strength of the economy, none more famous than Irving Fisher's, the Yale professor and economist who declared that the stock market had reached "a permanently high plateau".

Recently, posts on X by bitcoin proponents like Tom Lee and Michael Saylor have been echoing similar sentiments, with projections of bitcoin reaching such lofty valuations of $200,000 by year's end, $400,000 in 2026 and rising into the millions by the end of the decade.

When speculators begin to make pronouncements like that with little to no academic or rational backing, a second warning beacon is triggered. Rather than facing the reality that their speculation might end in disaster, these heavily-leveraged plungers are hoping to keep the plates of their speculation spinning. It usually doesn't end well, as Mr. Market always has ideas of restoring order and reversion to the mean, which, in the case of bitcoin, would be a correction back to around $32,000, a 70% crash which would wipe out not only the diamond-handed "hodlers" of bitcoin, but most of the speculative money in ETFs and other derivative bets.

Bitcoin isn't alone in its recent liquidation-driven decline. Other popular "coins" and issues like Ethereum, Solana, Dodgecoin and hundreds of other less-well-known cryptos are being wiped out.

While "Big Daddy" bitcoin took a four percent slide on Monday, Ethereum dropped eight percent, XRP, 9 percent; Dodgecoin, 10 percent; Solana, 11.

That's just Monday. Liquidations have been prevalent throughout October, resulting in $19 billion in liquidation-induced losses. November isn't looking much better.

The crypto space may be just the most obvious canary in the economic coal mine. Billions of dollars in what was normally-spendable income has been suspended by the government shutdown. It was decided on Monday that SNAP food benefits would be funded from emergency funds, but only about half of the usual $8 billion monthly hand-out was available and it could take states weeks or even months to work out the details.

Quietly, on Friday, the Federal Reserve injected $29.4 billion into its Standing Repo Facility (SRF) to help ease strained liquidity concerns at major banks and primary dealers. This was the largest cash infusion since the pandemic. While people were pre-occupied with the government shutdown, SNAP benefits, the World Series and football, there were some panicky people in high places doing odd things with money, setting up a perfect liquidity storm that's approaching gale force.

Monday's mid-morning meltdown in stocks was far from an isolated event. The major indices hit the lows of the day around 10:30 but immediately made a U-turn to higher ground. The NASDAQ never even turned red, but the S&P did, and only ended with a slight gain. The Dow suffered in negative territory all day long.

Money being drawn out of the financial system from various sources has a snowballing effect, though it may be imperceptible at first, it becomes more and more obvious as time passes. There have been instances of defaults on car loans and credit cards and bankruptcies are on the rise. Student loan default rates have spiked to well over 10%. As of March, 2025, because of various government schemes, only 35% of all student borrowers had been making payments on time.

Another sign of trouble brewing are gatherings of business leaders boasting about investments for the future and generally celebrating prosperity. When President Trump hosted the wealthiest tech billionaires at the White House in early September the talk was all about money, technology, and investment in American enterprise. The gathering was supposed to highlight America's economic prominence. All it accomplished was making a lot of people who don't own yachts and live in penthouses envious and maybe a little bit angry.

If stocks begin to stumble and business leaders begin making exhortations about the strength of the economy - Trump is the master of saying how great and fabulous everything is - it's probably a sign that lean times are dead ahead. That happened in the run-up to the 1929 crash and ensuing Great Depression. America may not be heading for a depression on the scale of what occurred back in the 1930s, but there are troubling signs that a downturn in the economy is probably already underway. The Fed doesn't cut rates twice in a row if everything's hunky-dory. They cut - as they did in September and October - when they see trouble.

So here we are on Tuesday, November 4, 2025, and bitcoin has dropped another $3,000, down as low as $103,607 prior to the opening bell for stocks. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg headline blares: Wall Street CEOs Flag High Market Valuations, Pullback Risk as stock futures head into the tank. The article cites, among others, Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Solomon, expressing the view that stocks could pullback 10% or more in the next 12 to 24 months. That, right there, folks, is comedy gold. Stocks could drop 10% in the next 12 to 24 weeks or 12 to 24 days, which, of course, would never be mentioned by anyone in good standing at the Wall Street casino. Statements and articles - especially from Bloomberg, the most propagandized of all media - like that are clear signs that something is up and that asset values are headed lower.

There is some good news. Dick Cheney, former VP under president George W. Bush and an original neocon, died overnight, officially, November 3. Cheney is famous for helping instigate the war in Iraq which toppled Saddam Hussein, assisted by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld (July 9, 1032 - June 29, 2021), Secretary of State Colin Powell (April 5, 1937 - October 18, 2021), Chief Advisor Karl Rove (still living) and others.

As far as speculation in crypto assets is concerned, there is ample reason to be concerned since bitcoin and the thousands of other crypto copies aren't actually money, or assets, but nothing more than numbers in blockchains. None of them - bitcoin, ethereum, fartcoin, dogecoin, or any other "coin" - has any value whatsoever, so, they are subject to the wanton whims and festering fantasies of speculators, manipulators, and swindlers running rampant in financial markets.

Just as a reality check, ask yourself if you know anybody who has bought groceries or paid rent or a mortgage with any kind of crypto. Chances are good that you don't. Crypto is more than speculation, worse than the South Sea bubble or Tulip mania. This is speculation on things that exist only in blockchains, in the ether, in cyberspace. There's neither value nor utility, only price movements. These are not investments. They are sinkholes that swallow up excess capital.

With all the speculation and super-high valuations in vaporware like crypto and blue sky promises from the AI horde, a rug-pull is almost a 100% certainty. We may be witnessing the early stages of the biggest bubble bursting in the history of mankind.

Be ready.

At the Close, Monday, November 3, 2025:
Dow: 47,336.68, -226.19 (-0.48%)
NASDAQ: 23,834.72, +109.77 (+0.46
S&P 500: 6,851.97, +11.77 (+0.17%)
NYSE Composite: 21,416.59, -42.99 (-0.20%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Government Shutdown Persists, Day 33; Fed Delivers Rate Cut with No Promises; SNAP Benefits in Limbo

The stock market managed to escape what is traditionally the month for crashes - October - unscathed.

Stocks closed out the last week of the month with the usual upside drift, though end of session Friday was a little frightful (it was Halloween, after all), as the major indices were down more than 50% from the day's highs.

The Dow was particularly amusing, making the high of the session 15 minutes before the close, 47,718.38, only to finish about 150 points lower, 47,562.87, for a paltry gain of just 40 points.

Now that it's November and Daylight Savings Time has been turned off, clocks surrendering an hour to the will of the government and nature, the Fed rate cut in the books, and no food stamps for some 40-42 million Americans (former president Obama, who apparently wishes more of a welfare state, put the number at 47 million. Math not his strong suit).

Riots and looting haven't begun in earnest, or, at least the mainstream media isn't reporting any. Hungry people can become angry people pretty quickly, but, nobody's actually run out of food yet. Food pantries and other charitable types have stepped in to fill the void... and the stomachs. Congress refuses to move on the issue, two courts demand that the Trump administration release emergency funds to recharge the EBT cards, and the president cynically asked the court for specifics.

Somewhere along the line, there's likely to be a scapegoat uttering something along the lines of Marie Antoinette's infamous expression of disdain for common folk, "let them eat cake." It's probably going to be Senate Democrats, who refuse to pass a continuing resolution already approved by the House, though it could be Senate Republicans, who refuse to end the filibuster rule that requires a 60-vote majority for cloture, and pass the CR without Democrat votes. It could even be President Trump.

There is going to be pain, blowback, and eventually, though it could take years and come in odd ways, retribution.

In any case, the government remains on shutdown, now into its 33rd day, soon to become the longest of government shutdowns. There is a loud chorus of anarchists hoping it remains closed permanently, though that is unlikely to happen. Sooner or later, the congress will come to the realization that they can't adequately hurt American citizens and loot the treasury without some kind of formal legislation. They will pass some kind of funding bill, but, their reputation already in tatters, will be irreparably damaged, the public certain they are nothing more than well-attired scoundrels and thugs.

Stocks

Stocks went up. Nothing new about that. The Shiller PE (CAPE) ended the week at 40.88, not quite the highest ever (44.19, November 1999).

The week ahead will feature another basket of earnings reports from widely held companies. Here's a partial list:

Monday, November 3: (before open) Fubo (FUBO), FreshPet (FRPT), Cipher Mining (CIFR); (after close) Palantir (PLTR), hims hers (HIMS), Clorox (CLX), Goodyear Tire (GT)

Tuesday, November 4: (before open) Pfizer (PFE), British Petroeum (BP) Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH), Spotify (SPOT), Shopify (SHOP), Uber (UBER); (after close) Pinterest (PINS), Astera Labs (ALAB), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Beyond Meat (BYND)

Wednesday, November 5: (before open)Humana (HUM), Brinks (BCO), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Mcdonald's (MCD) ; (after close) AMC (AMC), Dutch Bros. (BROS), Snap Inc. (SNAP), Robinhood (HOOD), Applovin (APP), Qualcomm (QCOM)

Thursday, November 6: (before open) ConocoPhillips (COP), AstraZeneca (AZN), Moderna (MRNA), Warner Brothers Discovery ((WBD); (after close) Opendoor (OPEN), Draft Kings (DKNG), Air B&B (ABNB)

Friday, November 7: (before open) Wedny's (WEN), Fluor (FLR), Six Flags (FUN), Duke Energy (DUK), Constellation (CEG)

As it always does, Berkshire Hathaway jumped the shark with it's earnings release on Saturday. Warren Buffett's holding company continues to eschew buybacks of its own stock, remains a net seller of stocks and increased its cash position to more than $382 billion while improving profits for the third quarter, beating estimates.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
09/26/2025	4.22	4.20	4.17	4.02	4.00	3.83	3.67
10/03/2025	4.24	4.17	4.11	4.03	3.96	3.82	3.64
10/10/2025	4.19	4.16	4.10	4.02	3.96	3.81	3.60
10/17/2025	4.18	4.15	4.08	4.00	3.95	3.79	3.56
10/24/2025	4.11	4.06	4.02	3.93	3.89	3.76	3.58
10/31/2025	4.06	4.02	4.04	3.89	3.87	3.79	3.70

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
09/26/2025	3.63	3.66	3.76	3.96	4.20	4.74	4.77
10/03/2025	3.58	3.59	3.72	3.90	4.13	4.69	4.71
10/10/2025	3.52	3.52	3.65	3.83	4.05	4.60	4.63
10/17/2025	3.46	3.47	3.59	3.78	4.02	4.58	4.60
10/24/2025	3.48	3.49	3.61	3.79	4.02	4.56	4.59
10/31/2025	3.60	3.60	3.71	3.89	4.11	4.65	4.67

The Fed delivered on the 0.25% cut to the federal funds target rate, though Chairman Powell refused to confirm another such cut in December, which sent the major indices into a temporary nose-dive. As has happened in the past, while short-term bills witnessed yield declines, longer maturities were higher, with the 10-year up nine basis points and the 30-year bond yield up eight. Two year yields were up 12 basis points, though the yield curve, as a whole, is proceeding to steepen, a positive development.

2s-10s spreads dropped to +51 while full spectrum roared up to +61, the highest since July. Demand for treasuries was shaky.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61

Oil/Gas

President Trump and Europe's sanctions on Russian oil will prove to be completely ineffective, as WTI crude closed out the week at $60.88, after rallying to $61.44 the week prior. There simply isn't anything the U.S. or E.U. can do about an oil glut and BRICS countries - especially India and China - will continue to buy Russian oil regardless of potential penalties or knuckle-thumping by the West.

The temporary rise in oil prices had little effect at the pump, with the U.S. national average down a penny, at $3.02, according to Gasbuddy.com.

California remains the priciest, at $4.66 per gallon, up seven cents, followed by Washington ($4.29), lower by six cents on the week. Oregon ($3.85), was down another eight cents on the week, after a flirtation with $4.00. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma ($2.50) the lowest, followed by Texas ($2.51), Mississippi and Arkansas both at $2.56. Louisiana ($2.57) and Alabama ($2.62) follow. The remaining Southeast states are all below $2.75 (Georgia), with Florida the exception, at $2.95, up a nickel.

Relief continued in the Northeast, where most states were under $3.00, except for Pennsylvania ($3.21), New York ($3.08) and Vermont ($3.07), and Maine ($3.01).

Illinois ($3.20) was the only Midwest state above $3.00. Kentucky was lowest, at $2.67.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 35 states, up three from last week.

Bitcoin (fake)

This week: $110,406.10
Last week: $113,471.40
2 weeks ago: $106,748.23
6 months ago: $96,432.45
One year ago: $68,434.65
Five years ago: $16,078.98

Bitcoin, which was supposed to rally to $200,000, $400,000 and beyond, was down for the week. The charts say $70,000 or lower in the near term.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 82.16; last week: 84.54

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 10/3: $3,912.10
Gold price 10/10: $4,035.50
Gold price 10/17: $4,267.90
Gold price 10/24: $4,126.90
Gold price 10/31: $4,013.40

Silver price 10/3: $47.97
Silver price 10/10: $47.51
Silver price 10/17: $50.63
Silver price 10/24: $48.41
Silver price 10/31: $48.25

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 10/17: $4250.59
Gold 10/24: $4110.63
Gold 10/31: $3997.10

Silver 10/17: $51.88
Silver 10/24: $48.59
Silver 10/31: $48.65

(Kitko)
Gold 10/19: Bid: $4,250.80; Ask: $4,252.80
Gold 10/26: Bid: $4,111.20; Ask: $4,113.20
Gold 10/31: Bid: $4001.10; Ask: $4,003.10

Silver 10/19: Bid: $51.86; Ask: $51.98
Silver 10/26: Bid: $48.53; Ask: $48.65
Silver 10/31: Bid: $48.60; Ask: $48.72

Gold and silver were under pressure, though not as significantly as the week prior. Prices for precious metals are back to where they were three weeks ago - and slightly above in the case of silver - indicating that the short-term suppression measures were very weak-handed.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	49.88	60.00	55.78	55.99
1 oz silver bar:	50.69	64.99	55.98	56.98
1 oz gold coin:	4,080.22	4,457.50	4,309.57	4,287.50
1 oz gold bar:	4,079.00	4,277.50	4,221.20	4,233.30

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) gained slightly over the week, to $56.18, a a gain of six cents from the October 26 price of $56.12 per troy ounce. The small-denomination, physical market continues to add premia to spot.

WEEKEND WRAP

Go get some food while its still available.

At the Close, Friday, October 31, 2025:
Dow: 47,562.87, +40.75 (+0.09%)
NASDAQ: 23,724.96, +143.81 (+0.61)
S&P 500: 6,840.20, +17.86 (+0.26%)
NYSE Composite: 21,459.58, +8.58 (+0.04%)

For the Week:
Dow: +355.75 (+0.75%)
NASDAQ: +520.09 (+2.24%)
S&P 500: +48.51 (+0.71%)
NYSE Composite: -238.48 (-1.10%)
Dow Transports: +435.51 (+2.82%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

America Comes Unglued

As the month of October comes to an end, the United States of America, which prides itself in many ways as being all-powerful, self-important, and essential to the welfare of the entire planet, has become a woeful laughingstock, its federal government unable to fund itself, a president who boasts of deals with foreign nations that purport to solve issues he created, and, with funding for SNAP, otherwise known as food stamps, expired, 40 million of its citizens are about to go hungry in a country that has an abundance of food.

The problems with which America has saddled itself are completely self-made, manufactured, and entirely avoidable. The federal government can borrow as much money as it wants from the Federal Reserve, which conjures it up out of thin air. The Senate simply does not want the government funded at present. They would rather pretend to be arguing over which party is screwing the taxpayers the most than doing the jobs they were elected to do. They have failed, as too, the president.

A government that cannot balance its books and at the same time cannot agree to legislation to keep itself operating is one not worth having. Should the Senate fail to agree, over the next few days, on a package to at least fund itself for a few months time, the effects will be immediate; the repercussions will be felt for years. The continuous wrangling and bickering over short-term solutions - a practice that has been ongoing for decades - is significant in showing the rest of the world how utterly incompetent, petty, and uncaring the elected officials of the United States really are.

There's nothing good about the now month-long government shutdown except possibly serving as a wake-up call to the people of America. The drama in Washington serves no useful purpose. Should the shutdown continue into November and possibly longer, chaos and anarchy will ensue, and then, what? Martial law? Is that the ultimate purpose of the fakery and foolery at the highest levels of government?

It may be so. America and the world is about to find out.

The conditions extant in the United States are horrific. The currency is a mirage. The government a circus. The media all propaganda. The system of checks and balances overwrought. The constitution, having been trampled upon by countless presidents, legislators, and members of the judiciary for decades, a sad remnant from better days.

While much of the country is anxious over the developments - or lack thereof - in the nation's capital, the denizens of lower Manhattan rejoice in the supremely high valuations of publicly-held corporations, their gizmos, inventions, products, and services the envy of the world. Of course, Wall Street itself is something of a fantasy, with indices and stock prices gerrymandered by big banks and brokerages, up, down, and every other which way, as they please.

The month of October, 2025 will be remembered, if Americans are lucky, as the month in which the government ceased to exist and Wall Street threw a party to celebrate its demise.

Good luck out there. You're going to need it.

At the Close, Thursday, October 30, 2025:
Dow: 47,522.12, -109.88 (-0.23%)
NASDAQ: 23,581.14, -377.33 (-1.57%)
S&P 500: 6,822.34, -68.25 (-0.99%)
NYSE Composite: 21,451.00, -74.93 (-0.35%)

TACO Thursday: Trump Rolls Back Tariffs on Asian Promises, Frameworks; Fed Cuts rates 0.25%; Government Shutdown Nears One Month

Via its FOMC, the Fed, as expected, cut the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points, from 4.00-4.25% to 3.75-4.00%.

Markets didn't respond significantly until Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned at his press conference that another 0.25% cut in December wasn't a sure bet. Stocks slumped on his comments, but immediately began to rise once he stopped talking.

Later in the evening - which was morning in South Korea - President Trump met with China's President, Xi Jinping, for about 90 minutes, both coming away looking somewhat satisfied. Trump left immediately afterwards on Air Force One, heading back to Washington.

On the plane trip, trump characterized the meeting as a "12" on a scale of 1 to 10. That's all well and good, but what actually was accomplished by his four-day trip to the Far East was mere posturing and posing without any concrete agreements.

The president made a boatload of comments about how well things were going (everybody's used to the braggadocio by now), but the trip produced little more than memorandums of understanding, frameworks, vague commitments with a swath of countries on a variety of issues - from rare earth deals to tariffs - lots of promises devoid of details.

Even the heavily-publicized meeting with Xi on Thursday produced little in the way of concrete solutions. Essentially, China agreed to slow their roll on rare earth mineral regulations, the U.S. agreed to knock general tariffs back to 47% from 57%, and there was some kind of understanding about China slowing the flow of fentanyl precursors and buying some soybeans from U.S. farmers.

It was all fairly vague and nebulous. Trump could have accomplished as much by phone, or, he might as well have never started his whole tariff regime in the first place, since he promised to roll back most of them during his trip. Essentially, China, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia paid the president extensive lip service.

Notably, Trump did not meet with anybody from either India or Indonesia, two BRIICS members. Indonesia joined BRICS earlier this year (January 7) and is a major miner and refiner of rare earth minerals. North Korea's Kim Jong Un didn't even want to talk to him. Meanwhile, Russia continues to pound Ukraine into dust. Putin and Trump aren't talking. The Alaska Summit? Poof. It's gone, having produced nothing, just like, it's suspected, this Asian jaunt.

Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.

-- William Shakespeare, Macbeth, Act 5, Scene 5

In card-playing terms, Trump bluffed and nobody blinked. The "trillions" the U.S. was expecting to rake in from tariffs will subsequently be reduced to "billions" and Americans will end up paying more for everything imported. Thank you, Mr. President. Now do India, Brazil, and Canada. And, while you're demonstrating your incredible negotiating skills, how about opening up the government that's been shut down for nearly a month. In case you haven't noticed, that's your government, the United States government, the one behind the "America First" agenda.

It was sure enough a TACO Thursday for Trump. His tariff policies have produced some revenue - the government collected some $151 billion through the end of September, with expectations of $3 trillion over the next ten years. While that sounds good, even great, one has to consider the overlaying context that federal expenditures will top $7 trillion this year and the deficit is expected to be north of $2 trillion. If tariffs produce $500 billion (they likely won't) in revenue in fiscal 2026, that's all well and good, but hardly sufficient. Americans will pay more for most goods and services, making them poorer, decreasing the amount of taxes that they pay.

Looks like a wash, almost. And, that's if the Supreme Court doesn't rule against Trump's tariffs later in November.

As Money Daily has been saying for the past few weeks, Trump's bombastic style is all for show. It's about how great America is, when it's actually been in decline for decades. Trump's tariffs and "re-shoring" plans for increasing domestic manufacturing aren't going to solve most of its basic problems: inflation, inflation, and inflation. The tariffs, along with the Fed lowering interest rates, actually stoke inflation.

For all the talk, the country is going in reverse.

America First is a complete sham, a meme, a bumper-sticker talking point for the government, the media, and Wall Street.

At the Close, Wednesday, October 30, 2025:
Dow: 47,632.00, -74.37 (-0.16%)
NASDAQ: 23,958.47, +130.98 (+0.55%)
S&P 500: 6,890.59, -0.30 (-0.00%)
NYSE Composite: 21,525.93, -163.62 (-0.75%)