Money Daily

Sunday, March 1, 2026

WEEKEND WRAP: WAR with Iran; Anthropic AI Booted by War Department; Investors Flood into Treasuries, Gold, Silver; Oil About to Break Out

Editor's Note: War doesn't bestow many, if any, benefits. It being mostly about destruction, those who engage in it willingly are seldom people you'd have over for dinner. Because events are changing so quickly under the fog of war, Money Daily decided to mostly refrain from editorializing or providing links, since the stories are likely to be outdated within hours of their publication. Readers are advised, especially now, to perform their own research and due diligence. Best of luck to all.

Two major stories emerged as February came to a close.

On Friday, President Trump pre-empted a deadline imposed by Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, for Anthropic, the AI company that had contracted with the DoW for unclassified and classified operations, to accede to demands that it abandon its safety guardrails, specifically, that Anthropic's technology would not be used to conduct mass surveillance on U.S. citizens, and, that it would not be used to produce fully autonomous weapons systems without human supervision.

Anthropic's CEO, Dario Amodei, chose to take the moral high ground and stick to the company's safety guidelines - which were included in the contract with DoW - risking a $200 million contract with the War Department. Trump interceded an hour before Friday's 5:01 pm ET deadline, via a post on Truth Social, ordering all agencies to cease using Anthropic's products and cancelling all government contracts with the company. For his part, Secretary of War Hegseth declared Anthropic a "supply chain risk."

The effect of Hegseth's knee-jerk response is as yet unknown. Anthropic has extensive ties to businesses large and small around the world and throughout the United States. A complete ban on using the company's products - the most popular being "Claude" - would likely affect thousands of U.S. firms.

Trump's directive is more straightforward. Agencies of the federal government will stop using Anthropic's products as soon as possible. For the War Department, there will be a six-month transition period.

On Saturday, Sam Altman's company, OpenAI, was designated as the replacement of Anthropic. This story is still evolving, as is the other major development, the military assault by the U.S. and Israel on the nation of Iran, which commenced early Saturday morning.

Thus far, the U.S. claimed (and Iran soon afterwards confirmed) that the religious leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, was killed in a missile strike on his compound in Tehran. Other leaders were also taken out amid hundreds of U.S. and Israeli strikes. Iran retaliated with strikes of its own on U.S. bases and some civilian structures in Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel, and elsewhere.

The war being less than 48 hours old, it's not possible to draw any conclusions other than it seems to be only just getting started and figures to be an ongoing conflict for at least weeks and probably months, both sides committed to seeing it through according to their goals. For the U.S, and Israel, that is complete destruction of Iran's military and regime change. Iran is fighting for its very survival. This does not appear to be anything that will be resolved in the short term.

Stocks

Taking another blow, the Dow and NASDAQ suffered the worst, though, on a percentage basis, it was little more than a flesh wound. The markets continue to have the uncanny ability to drop one day and rally the next, regardless of geopolitics and AI-related overhang. The S&P was off less than 1/2 percent, just scratching the surface of its bubble condition. For all the ups and downs, the S&P 500 is up 0.45% year-to-date, essentially a sideways market.

Whether that will change in consideration of current events remains a mystery, though it does appear that any upside momentum has been overtaken.

Earnings season continues at a crawl, with retailers in focus for the week ahead.

Monday: (before open) Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH), ADT (ADT); (after close) Riot Platforms (RIOT), Plug Power (PLUG), Quantum Computing (QUBT), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)

Tuesday: (before open) Playsafe ((PSFE), Best Buy (BBY), Target (TGT), Ross Stores (ROST), AutoZone (AZO), Thor Industries (THO), VIK (Viking Holdings; (after close) Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM), GitLab (GTLB), CrowdStrike (CRWD)

Wednesday: (before open) Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Wix (WIX), Dycom Industries (DY); (after close) American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), OKTA (OKTA), STEM (STEM)

Thursday: (before open) Ciena (CIEN), Victoria's Secret (VSCO), Burlington (BURL), Kroger (KR); (after close) GoPro (GPRO), Petrobras (PBR), Marvell (MRVL), Costco (COST)

Friday: (before open) Embraer (EMBJ), Genesco (GCO), Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN)

The week ahead includes some juice from data, though the situation in the Middle East will likely have a larger overall impact on stocks. Briefly, Monday has the February ISM manufacturing PMI and S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI; Wednesday, ADP's February National Employment Report, S&P Global Feb. U.S. Services PMI, Feb. ISM Services PMI, Fed Beige Book. On Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims are announced prior to the open, U.S. Q$ Productivity, and January Import Price Index are reported. Friday, the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll report for February will be in focus, plus, January Consumer Credit, Retail Sales (January), and December Business inventories.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
01/23/2026	3.78	3.71	3.72	3.70	3.67	3.61	3.53
01/30/2026	3.72	3.73	3.75	3.67	3.69	3.61	3.48
02/06/2026	3.72	3.72	3.74	3.68	3.70	3.59	3.45
02/13/2026	3.72	3.71	3.73	3.68	3.70	3.59	3.42
02/20/2026	3.72	3.73	3.74	3.69	3.71	3.61	3.51
02/27/2026	3.74	3.73	3.73	3.67	3.67	3.60	3.48

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
01/23/2026	3.60	3.67	3.84	4.03	4.24	4.78	4.82
01/30/2026	3.52	3.60	3.79	4.01	4.26	4.82	4.87
02/06/2026	3.50	3.57	3.76	3.98	4.22	4.80	4.85
02/13/2026	3.40	3.43	3.61	3.81	4.04	4.64	4.69
02/20/2026	3.48	3.50	3.65	3.85	4.08	4.66	4.72
02/27/2026	3.38	3.39	3.51	3.72	3.97	4.57	4.64

The benchmark 10-year note ended the week yielding less than four percent, the first time its breached that level since October 28, 2025 (3.99%). Considering the various threats to stability, the rush into the relative safety of treasuries is not to be taken lightly. Buyers seem perfectly willing to accept smallish returns that may not even equal inflation in an effort to preserve capital. The fixed income market senses fear, and for good reason(s). The general effect is a flat-lining of the entire curve, with rates at a low of 3.38 (2-year notes) and a high of 4.64% (30-year), hardly enough spread to make a profit.

Profit is probably not the main concern for buyers. Despite not even breaking even with inflation, the focus is on keeping money at some kind of reasonable level until global conditions improve or degrade, the latter condition not conducive to making money anywhere at any time.

Spreads remain elevated, with 2s-10s dipping just one basis point from the prior week, to +59 while full spectrum (30 days - 30 years) took a 10 basis point flattening, at +90.

The general trend is not appealing, though it does appear to be leaning closer to a reduction at the short end. Should global conditions remain steadily in poor form or even take a further turn for the worse, the opportunity for the Fed to step in with emergency measures (even more than are already in place) remains a possibility. If Ukraine and Iran continue to produce angst and uncertainty, a cut at the next FOMC meeting (March 17-18) would be likely and the Fed could also signal more to come. The tug-of-war between inflation and recession is keeping the Fed from doing anything dramatic, though that intransigence might prove costly in the long term.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58
12/12: +67
12/19: +68
12/26: +68
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97
12/12: +109
12/19: +111
12/26: +111
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90

Oil/Gas

WTI crude ended the week at $67.29, almost a buck higher than last Friday's $66.31, and likely to jump on Monday, given the closure by Iran of the Strait of Hormuz, a tipping point in the war and to the global economy. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 20% of the daily flow of crude oil is now effectively cut off, and there are few winners. China, Europe, and the U.S. will suffer from supply imbalances, the winner will be Russia, despite sanctions. Moscow holds a distinct advantage as oil is needed at what may become any price.

It is more likely that the conflict over Iran will last longer than U.S. and Israel desire, putting pressure on the U.S. and Israel to either step up their assault in hopes that Iran will capitulate sooner, rather than later, if at all. Trump and Netanyahu have taken a dangerous gambit, throwing the region into chaos when the rest of the world is already suffering from severe instability.

Expect WTI crude to pop over $70/barrel on Monday, with price increases the longer the conflict remains unresolved.

By early Sunday morning, gas prices were already anticipating price hikes at the pump, with the U.S. national average rising to $2.97.

California rose another three cents over the week, to $4.63 per gallon, the highest in the nation and up 32 cents in just the past four weeks. Washington was up nine cents ($4.36) and is likely to remain a charter member of the $4+ club for the duration of Mideast hostilities. Oregon ($3.89), is up 28 cents in just the past two weeks. After three weeks under $3.00, Arizona is above $3.00 for a fourth straight week, rising 12 cents to $3.34. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma, despite an 11 cent rise, well below any other state, at $2.41, followed by Louisiana ($2.49) and Mississippi ($2.51). The remaining Southeast states, from North Carolina ($2.74) west to New Mexico ($2.72, up 22 cents), are all below $2.79, except Florida ($2.87).

In the Northeast, prices remained steady and consistently close to recent lows. Only Pennsylvania ($3.10) and Vermont ($3.01) were above $3.00. New York held steady at $2.98.

In the midwest region, Illinois gapped 11 cents to $3.03, with Michigan close behind, at $2.98. Kansas was the lowest ($2.54), though higher than last week by eight cents, followed by North Dakota ($2.58), up 12 cents.

Sub-$3.00 gas remained the norm in 40 of the lower 48 states, leaving only California, Washington, Nevada, Oregon, Illinois, Arizona, Vermont, and Pennsylvania, at $3.00 or above. That was the same number as last week, though it now appears unlikely that gas prices will remain near what are six-year lows for much longer.

Bitcoin

This week: $66,515.72
Last week: $67,651.35
2 weeks ago: $68,948.18
6 months ago: $110,374.90
One year ago: $85,812.15
Five years ago: $48,883.48

Bitcoiners aren't going to get any relief from war of AI any time soon, or anything else for that matter. The problem exists within the crypto sphere entirely, derived from not having a solid use case for any kind of "coinage."

With assets under pressure and a liquidity drain forming, there's no place but down for the entire miasma of "hodlers" and dreamers. Nobody is going to get rich from crypto assets other than criminals exploiting the system or Wall Street sharpies and short-side speculators. While whales, true believers, and Michael Saylor may continue to keep the value of bitcoin and other cryptos from falling straight off a cliff of their own making, the trend is clearly getting redder every second of every day and wars, instability, inflation or recession aren't going to change their luck.

Crypto has seen its best days. What remains will be a catastrophe.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 56.26; last week: 60.66

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 1/30: $4,907.50
Gold price 2/6: $4,988.60
Gold price 2/13: $5,063.80
Gold price 2/20: $5,108.34
Gold price 2/27: $5,296.40

Silver price 1/30: $85.25
Silver price 2/6: $77.53
Silver price 2/13: $77.27
Silver price 2/20: $84.57
Silver price 2/27: $94.39

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 1/30: $4,886.71
Gold 2/6: $4,964.07
Gold 2/13: $5,041.72
Gold 2/20: $5,130.00
Gold 2/27: $5,278.05

Silver 1/30: $84.63
Silver 2/6: $77.98
Silver 2/13: $77.19
Silver 2/20: $84.57
Silver 2/27: $93.82

Though it's not the best or most moral rationale for holding precious metals, there's nothing like a war to send the prices of gold and silver higher. Add that to the unmistakable inconsistencies in the legacy COMEX/LBMA rigging apparatus and there's ample reason to rejoice at the good fortune of vaulted or safe at home "pet rocks." Unless there's a quick resolution to the Iran-U.S./Israel conflict, expect silver to march well beyond $100 in the coming week and gold to hit new highs over $5,500.

The weekly survey of pries on eBay are already pricing in the costs of war. It's not pretty nor desirable, but, it's a well-known fact that when people are having munitions explode nearby, those outside the blast radii will be reaching for something shiny.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	98.48	112.00	103.71	102.45
1 oz silver bar:	104.99	120.00	110.38	109.26
1 oz gold coin:	5,469.67	5,703.40	5,582.30	5,566.13
1 oz gold bar:	5,425.00	5,599.02	5,515.49	5,530.83

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) leapt higher Saturday into Sunday, to $106.45, a gain of $10.28 cents from the February 22 price of $96.17 per troy ounce.

The weekly eBay price survey continues to reveal that retail dealers and casual buyers and sellers alike have adjusted to severe premiums, which remain in a range of 20-25% and higher over spot for small denominations. This Sunday morning, buyers are pricing in the Mideast conflict to an alarming degree.

WEEKEND WRAP

Well, war it is, then. Whether attacking a nation of more than 90 million people that is armed to the teeth is a good idea for the intellectuals in Washington, D.C. and Tel-Aviv remains to be seen.

For they have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind: it hath no stalk: the bud shall yield no meal: if so be it yield, the strangers shall swallow it up. -- Hosea 8:7

At the Close, Friday, February 27, 2026:
Dow: 48,977.92, -521.28 (-1.05%)
NASDAQ: 22,668.21, -210.17 (-0.92%)
S&P 500: 6,878.88, -29.98 (-0.43%)
NYSE Composite: 23,494.44, -30.40 (-0.13%)

For the Week:
Dow: -648.05 (-1.31%)
NASDAQ: -217.86 (-0.95%)
S&P 500: -30.63 (-0.44%)
NYSE Composite: +41.84 (+0.18%)
Dow Transports: -151.99 (-0.77%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Friday, February 27, 2026

AI Strikes Again: Jack Dorsey's Block (XYZ) Cuts Jobs in Favor of AI, Stock Soars; January PPI Shows Inflation Remains Above Fed Target

Market volatility reared its ugly head again on Thursday, sending major indices into a tailspin early in the session prior to an afternoon recovery, but futures are indicating a lower open on Friday, as one of the usual catalysts, Nvidia, failed to spark buying in the tech sector and elsewhere.

While Nvidia crushed expectations in its quarterly report after the close Wednesday, the stock sank at the open Thursday and remained mired in the red, losing 5.46% on the day as fears of widespread economic disruption from AI continued to overhang markets. The major fear is that AI will replace most white collar jobs in all industries, a trend that has already seen casualties and should continue to propagate as LLMs continue to learn and grow knowledge bases that make human interaction often trivial and less effective.

AI has already begun to replace entry level jobs in accounting, law, computer programming, coding, research, and other data-intensive functions. It's rapid ascendancy into the business climate is fomenting disruption at firms large and small, as adoption and use of the technology obviates its usefulness and cost effectiveness. AI doesn't take a weekly or monthly paycheck, it doesn't need vacations, health care, sick days, or maternity leave. In general, AI can perform most or all of the functions of entry-level computer workers at a fraction of the cost with minimal supervision, and, as the LLMs learn, they become more accurate and less prone to mistakes. AI “assistants” also generate no employee income, a real quandary for taxing authorities (though some may argue that’s a good thing).

The rise of the machines has become a real concern on Wall Street, though the initial effects may actually cause companies to become more attractive, as Jack Dorsey's payment processing company, Block (XYZ), discovered after slashing thousands of computer jobs in favor of AI. Dorsey, the inventor and founder of Twitter, now X, announced immediate layoff late Thursday. Shares of the company are up more than 18% in pre-market trading Friday.

Volatility due to AI adoption and growth is not likely to ebb any time soon. Rather, it should accelerate as more companies find use cases for the fast-growing technology and the models show improved efficiency. AI also ties into robotics, another growth area that threatens blue collar jobs, as it is used as the "brains" of robots, humanized or otherwise, allowing actual learning of tasks traditionally the province of human beings. Already, companies are touting house-cleaning robots that can be trained to do menial tasks such as vacuuming, laundry, washing dishes, general maintenance and other tasks. Within two to three years, household robots will become a robust market as production costs come down and efficiencies gain.

In another very telling development related to market health and volatility, yields on the benchmark 10-year note dipped briefly below four percent on Thursday, indicating that investors are shedding equities in favor of the safety of fixed income securities. There doesn't seem to be many sectors safe from the AI phenomenon. Use cases are being developed in everything from automated manufacturing to gardening and robotic companionship models.

It's not going away.

Investors have to consider the fallout from millions of entry-level and middle management workers thrust into unemployment lines by AI, and what will become of U.S. and global workforces, long term. If AI continues to replace humans in the workplace, where will these displaced workers go after unemployment benefits and severance runs out? There are presently no easy answers, only nagging indications that a radical shift in the capitalist model is underway.

With markets due to open in a matter of minutes, after the BLS released the January Producer Price Index (PPI), stock futures, which were already lower, continued to decline, sending Dow futures down 510 points, NASDAQ futures off 240, and S&P futures down 38.

The report, from an inflation standpoint, and, from the perspective of lower interest rates, was not good:

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.4 percent in December 2025 and 0.2 percent in November. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ended January 2026.

The January increase in prices for final demand can be traced to a 0.8-percent advance in the index for final demand services. In contrast, prices for final demand goods declined 0.3 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.3 percent in January, the ninth consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in January, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.4 percent.

For the week, through Thursday's close, the Dow is down 126 points, the NASDAQ is down seven, and S&P futures have shed 37 points.

With valuations at nosebleed levels for many stocks, especially in the tech space, how much longer before companies like Google, Apple, Meta Platforms and others start announcing massive layoffs in favor of AI? The other side of the coin is that these same companies are building the data centers that make AI possible, investing billions in CapEX. These big investments will be offset by lower operating costs down the line, so there is something of a silver lining.

At the Close, Thursday, February 26, 2026:
Dow: 49,499.20, +17.05 (+0.03%)
NASDAQ: 22,878.38, -273.70 (-1.18%)
S&P 500: 6,908.86, -37.27 (-0.54%)
NYSE Composite: 23,524.84, +72.10 (+0.31%)

Thursday, February 26, 2026

Nvidia Smashes Expectations, as Usual; Fails to Ignite Confidence Rally; US-Iran Talks Continue Toward Peaceful Resolution

After the close on Wednesday, chip-maker Nvidia (NVDA) released earnings from the fouth quarter of 2025. For the quarter, Nvidia saw earnings per share (EPS) of $1.62 on revenue of $68.1 billion. The company issued positive guidance for the first quarter of 2026.

The market said, "ho-hum."

There's no surprise that Nvidia shattered expectations. That's what the stock does.

Prior to the opening bell, shares of the world's most valuable company by market cap are flat to slightly higher. Wall Street is going to need more than this to keep the rally going during the period between earnings seasons. Most companies have already filed full year and 4th quarter 2025 reports. Year-to-date, the Dow is leading the way, up 2.59%. S&P is ahead by 1.47% and the NASDAQ is off by 0.39%.

Talks between Iran and the U.S. continued on Thursday, with most officials reporting positive progress toward a peaceful resolution, though many in the political shpere are keeping opinions mum with the buildup of military assets in the region by the U.S. indicating some kind of kinetic action.

There's little to report other than stocks have bounced back from Monday's losses and are looking forward to a positive return for the week. Friday's PPI report for February prior to the opening bell may influence trading.

Otherwise, the casino remains open.

At the Close, Wednesday, February 25, 2026:
Dow: 49,482.15, +307.65 (+0.63%)
NASDAQ: 23,152.08, +288.40 (+1.26%)
S&P 500: 6,946.13, +56.06 (+0.81%)
NYSE Composite: 23,452.73, +68.90 (+0.29%)

Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Trump SOTU Draws Battle Lines for Midterms, Portrays Democrats as Un-American, Softens Tone on Iran, Gives Markets a Boost

In the first State of the Union address of his second term, President Trump affirmed, once again, that he is a master showman capable of delivering a message with clarity and boldness while at the same time taking swipes at his detractors and opponents for their shortcomings.

The longest SOTU since at least 1964, Trump's speech before the combined houses of the legislature alternated between substantive boasts of progress on economic and social issues and showy anecdotes of American exceptionalism, all the while remaining focused on the accomplishments of his administration's first full year.

While some of Trump's rhetoric may have deviated slightly from actual facts, the message was clear as day: America is strong, America is bold, and America will keep on winning. In just under two hours of oratory, President Trump pressed his agenda, pushing his Republican colleagues to pass legislation to codify many of his priorities, at the same time berating the Democrat party for its wrong-footed ideology, and refusal to accept common-sense solutions for the American people.

The most poignant moment was when Trump challenged the entire chamber with a choice, "Stand if you agree: The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens." With that, Republicans rose in applause while Democrats sat quietly on their hands. It was a stark moment, a thrown gauntlet that made the Democrats look foolish and completely out of step.

Trump also managed to largely avoid the issue of potential military action against Iran by clearly stating that he preferred a diplomatic solution, a posture that comes as welcome relief to many patriots who agree with "peace through strength" but are not completely aligned with Mideast policy.

By the end of the night, Trump had managed to improve his public perception and draw a stark line of delineation between Republican and Democrat agenda. He set the agenda for the upcoming midterm elections in no uncertain terms. Democrats scurried from the chamber as fast as possible, as if to avoid being overwhelmed by the wave of Republican enthusiasm.

Politics aside, Trump's SOTU address was timely, delivered in the brash, combative manner that Americans appreciate. While being loud, boisterous, and bullish may be seen in certain circles as undignified and inappropriate, being somewhat unmannerly is something etched into the heart and soul of America. Trump reaffirmed that the United States - approaching a milestone 250 years - will still stand tall and not back down. If Americans needed a boost to their fractured notions of what America stands for, Trump provided a reasonable prescription.

It's not so much that America doesn't have issues and warts - it does - but by focusing on the positive and imagining a way forward, President Trump cleared the air on a host of matters that may give his administration some much-needed breathing room in the months and years ahead.

Initial reaction to Trump's long-winded speech is reflected in a positive lean in stock futures haeding into Wednesday's session. An hour before the opening bell, Dow futures were up about 140 points, NASDAQ futures were ahead by 105, S&P futures gained 19.

Coupled with earnings reports overnight and into Wednesday morning, the market appears still somewhat unsteady, but ready to continue rallying back against steep losses taken on Monday.

Tuesday, after the bell, 4th quarter earnings from the following companies hit the tape:
Mercado Libre (MELI) - solid on revenue, short on EPS, stock trading 5-6% lower pre-market
Workday (WDAY) - strong 4Q earnings, but AI concerns, subsription issues, weak guidance send shares down 10%
First Solar (FSLR) - Earnings miss, shares down 15%
HP Inc. (HPQ) - strong quarter, mixed forecast, stock down 5-6%

With Tuesday's earnings results less-than-encouraging, Wednesday offerings before the opening bell included: TJX Companies (TJX) - Q4 beat, shares up 1% Photronics (PLAB) - Earnings beat, strong sales and guidance sends stock up 5% Lowe’s (LOW) - top and bottom beat, but stock sells off 3%

After the close Thursday, Nvidia (NVDA), SalesForce (CRM), and Synopsis (SNPS) report. Obviously, the focus will be on Nvidia, though it's become something of a fool’s errand to chase the chipmakers that are already at excessive valuations. Better opportunities exist further down the AI disruption food chain.

Looks like the market is going to get some help from Trump’s bully pulpit remarks, but strains in the general economy continue to manifest. The market may take some relief that the U.S. hasn't committed to military action in Iran and the possibility that an overt kinetic exercise may still be averted.

At the Close, Tuesday, February 24, 2026:
Dow: 49,174.50, +370.44 (+0.76%)
NASDAQ: 22,863.68, +236.41 (+1.04%)
S&P 500: 6,890.07, +52.32 (+0.77%)
NYSE Composite: 23,383.83, +168.95 (+0.73%)

Tuesday, February 24, 2026

The Core Message of AI: Skate to Where the Puck is Going and Don't Get Fooled Again with IBM Under Assault

Stocks took a pretty serious bruising to open the week, largely on the notion that Anthropic's AI Claude Code tool could rapidly and efficiently modernize legacy software that relies as COBOL as its base language.

That sent shares of IBM down by 13% on the day, triggering another selloff on the Dow and dragging the other indices down with it. In just the past month, the Dow has dropped 1.23%, the S&P, 1.62, and the NASDAQ, 4.13%. Year-to-date, the picture is less gloomy, with the Dow still up by 1.23%, the S&P essentially flat (+0.23%) and only the NASDAQ in the red, down 2.64%.

The trend to the downside is becoming clearer. At the end of last year and into reporting of 4th quarter earnings by the tech giants, it was fear that CapEx for AI development had overshot any reasonable expectation of profitability. More recently, the concern is that AI will make certain business segments obsolete. Companies with a core business in software or programming have been under assault from AI development, which is advancing its coding skill set at an alarming rate. The majority of coders and programmers are already using AI to a large degree because it can generate a multitude of code in a fraction of the time a team of programmers can.

On the issue of COBOL, upon which most legacy banking, finance, and government agencies rely (95% of all ATM transactions for instance), veteran programmers are split over what advancements AI can make to the 60+ year-old language, the source of which is a proprietary property of IBM. While it's clear that some functions can be upgraded and modernized, there's a growing consensus that the core COBOL language that IBM controls will not soon be under assault. That does not rule out that COBOL will be less valuable in the future or that it will be eventually replaced by faster, more resilient modernized software applications.

As AI improves its functionality in code compilation, mathematics, decision-making, and integration into anything and everything digital, long-standing assumptions about the primacy of companies and systems rooted in post-World War II technology will be increasingly scrutinized, modernized, or replaced. Just as the advent of the automobile during the second industrial revolution replaced horse-drawn carriages, buggy whips and harness manufacturers, so too will the latest technology weed out those systems that have been overtaken by the information revolution that is taking place today.

From an investment perspective, the wisdom of hockey legend Wayne Gretzky, may be the most appropriate, conceptually: "Skate to where the puck is going."

As Tuesday's session comes into view, following the Dow's worst session in just over a month (January 16), futures are pointing at a dead cat that is being prepared to be thrown from a rooftop. For those not familiar with the term, "dead cat bounce", it refers to the snap-back reaction or buying of the dip that is typical after a large rundown. What will be telling from Tuesday's session and the remainder of the week is whether the major averages can maintain a positive slant in the face of the growing threat of AI, which could change the nature of business operations in many sectors.

On that matter, perhaps one should consider the warning from the Who (the band, not the World Health Organization): "Won't Get Fooled Again."

At the Close, Monday, February 23, 2026: Dow: 48,804.06, -821.91 (-1.66%) NASDAQ: 22,627.27, -258.79 (-1.13%) S&P 500: 6,837.75, -71.76 (-1.04%) NYSE Composite: 23,214.89, -237.71 (-1.01%)

Monday, February 23, 2026

WEEKEND WRAP: Tariffs, Trade, Flow of Crude Oil, Military Conflict, AI Encroachment, Probably Nothing; Stocks, Oil, Gold, Silver Rise as Bitcoin Fails

Everything was going just swimmingly last week until Friday's Supreme Court decision derailed President Trump's signature tariff policy, saying, in a 6-3 decision, that the tariffs imposed by President Trump were not lawful (some may say, illegal) under the terms of the IEEPA. The ruling sets in motion discussion and almost certainly, lawsuits, from countries and/or companies that paid the tariffs and will subsequently seek refunds.

In the meantime, Trump made a sweeping declaration, imposing 10% tariffs on all U.S. imports, raising it to 15% (the maximum allowable by law) hours later. The law gives the president 150 days of tariff authority without congressional approval under trade law section 122. Trump has other options, including the use of Section 301, to impose tariffs on countries deemed "unjustifiable" or "burdens or restricts" US business interests.

Probably nothing, but in light of the Supreme Court ruling Friday, India cancelled a trade delegation's trip to DC. Recall just a few weeks ago, the Boaster-in-Chief was hailing his "deal" with India as a major accomplishment. He also suggested that India had halted their buying of Russian crude oil and promised to purchase $500 billion worth of American goods and services. Um, no.

There was little to no discernible market impact from the court ruling or Trump's latest dictate. Stocks rose on Friday as the U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford steamed through the Mediterranean en route to the Arabian Sea where it would join the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln, ostensibly preparing for an assault on Iran, essentially because the Iranians don't like he idea of leaving themselves defenseless against America, Israel, or anybody else, for that matter.

Lost in conversation was the BEA report of 4th quarter 2025 GDP collapsing to 1.4%, dropping the 225 full year GDP to a disappointing 2.25%, or the PCE index remaining relatively stable at 2.6%.

The week's events leave the U.S. economic picture just a little bit muddier. Probably nothing.

Stocks

This week, Wall Street declared the selling off of companies primarily in the business of software because of the treat from AI to be over.

It's not. It's only just begun.

Oracle (ORCL), Intuit (INTU), Salesforce (CRM), Adobe (ADBE), and AppLovin (APP) lost between 13% and 30% over the past month. Adobe was hit the least (13.72%); Intuit the most (30.52%). The main culprit appears to be Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 4.6 AI product, which made a quantum leap over previous versions in terms of computational skills and coding knowledge.

These companies and others are at serious risk unless they can quickly incorporate AI into their product mix. They may be doomed no matter what they do, as AI operability is scaling quickly and Anthropic's model is very good at writing code and producing apps.

Stocks managed to fight off nagging negative news and continue pumping money into the bubble. Stock valuations are at their highest level in history, as if U.S. industrial and business dominance overrides excessive debt and obvious ploys like stock buyback programs to artificially boost corporate earnings. As always, the sky's the limit, until it isn't.

In volume terms, this was one of the most sluggish weeks in recent memory. Market participants are looking for some kind of catalyst and they'r not getting any from earnings, AI buildout or job-crunching fears, or the "bomb Iran" waiting game.

Earnings season is winding down. The most important earnings reports will be fiew and spread across the week with focus on miners, retailers Home Depot and TJX, and Dow component, Salesforce. Nvidia is likely to take all the air out of the room Thursday, reporting after the close Wednesday.

Monday: (before open) Domino's Pizza (DPZ), Dominion Energy (D), FreshPet (FRPT); (after close) Kratos (KTOS), Primoris (PRM), Hims|Hers (HIMS)

Tuesday: (before open) Home Depot (HD), NRG (NRG), Planet Fitness (PLNT); (after close) AMC Entertainment (AMC), Cava (CAVA), Mercado Libre (MELI), Workday (WDAY), First Solar (FSLR), HP Inc. (HPQ)

Wednesday: (before open) TJX Companies (TJX), Photronics (PLAB), Lowe’s (LOW); (after close) Nvidia (NVDA), SalesForce (CRM), Synopsis (SNPS),

Thursday: (before open) Baidu (BIDU), Rackspace (RXT), Royal Bank of Canada (RY); (after close) Dell (DELL), CoreWeave (CRWV)

Friday: (before open) Endeavor Silver (EXK), 1st Dibs (DIBS), Globalstar (GSAT)

The week ahead is light on data, including Factory Orders on Monday, Tuesday's S&P Case-Shiller home price index for December, December Wholesale inventories, and February Consumer Confidence preceding President Trump's State of the Union address. Thursday has initial and continuing jobless claims and Friday closes out the week with the February Producer Price Index (PPI) before the bell.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
01/16/2026	3.75	3.72	3.68	3.67	3.66	3.60	3.55
01/23/2026	3.78	3.71	3.72	3.70	3.67	3.61	3.53
01/30/2026	3.72	3.73	3.75	3.67	3.69	3.61	3.48
02/06/2026	3.72	3.72	3.74	3.68	3.70	3.59	3.45
02/13/2026	3.72	3.71	3.73	3.68	3.70	3.59	3.42
02/20/2026	3.72	3.73	3.74	3.69	3.71	3.61	3.51

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
01/16/2026	3.59	3.67	3.82	4.02	4.24	4.79	4.83
01/23/2026	3.60	3.67	3.84	4.03	4.24	4.78	4.82
01/30/2026	3.52	3.60	3.79	4.01	4.26	4.82	4.87
02/06/2026	3.50	3.57	3.76	3.98	4.22	4.80	4.85
02/13/2026	3.40	3.43	3.61	3.81	4.04	4.64	4.69
02/20/2026	3.48	3.50	3.65	3.85	4.08	4.66	4.72

There was very little movement in fixed income, similar to the sluggishness demonstrated in equities. Almost not worth reporting, spreads were flat, with 2s-10s at +60 and full spectrum at +100. The biggest move was in 2-year notes, with yields up 8 basis points, though still well below recent levels. 1-month bills remained moored at 3.72% for the fourth week running.

Spreads:

Oil/Gas

WTI crude ended the week at $66.31, the largest weekly gain in eight months, from the close last week at $60.58. Tensions in the Middle East continue to drive speculation in crude, with the Strait of Hormuz a tipping point. While there's a contingent of traders who believe the strait would be shut down by Iran in the case of a U.S. attack, there's also an argument that closing off oil flows would not serve Iran well, given their major customer is China. It would be tantamount to shooting itself in the foot.

It is more likely that the conflict over Iran will last longer than U.S. and Israel desire, and that a focused assault could rapidly escalate into a regional or wider war, drawing in other Mideast nations and possibly China and Russia. Such a scenario remain an open possibility since Iran sees the current amassing of force off its coast as an existential threat, similar to Russia's view of the Ukraine situation. Should hostilities spread beyond Iran, the price of oil would almost certainly rise, regardless of whether the Strait of Hormus remained open or closed.

The markets prefer a short, quick resolution, though the reality is that nothing indicates a quick strike or resolution. There's a better chance that whatever occurs in the Middle East is going to rage on for months and possibly years as it serves the interests of both the U.S. and Israel to keep the world in chaos and continual conflict.

The U.S. national average for gas at the pump remained flat for the week, at $2.92 by Sunday.

California rose another five cents this week, to $4.60 per gallon, the highest in the nation and up 29 cents in just the past three weeks. Washington ($4.27) remained in the $4+ club for a second straight week, up a whopping 15 cents. Oregon ($3.81), was up 20 cents. After three weeks under $3.00, Arizona is above $3.00 for a third straight week, rising six cents to $3.22. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma well below any other state, at $2.30, followed by Arkansas ($2.40) and Louisiana ($2.41). Texas checks in at $2.43. The remaining Southeast states, from North Carolina ($2.70) west to New Mexico ($2.50), are all below $2.70, except Florida ($2.87).

In the Northeast, prices remained steady and consistently close to recent lows. Only Pennsylvania ($3.14) was above $3.00. New York held steady at $2.98, along with Vermont ($3.00).

In the midwest region, Illinois remained the highest, though down eight cents at $2.92, with Michigan next, at $2.83. Kansas was the lowest ($2.45), followed by North Dakota ($2.46).

Sub-$3.00 gas was the norm in 40 of the lower 48 states, one fewer than last week, leaving only California, Washington, Nevada, Oregon, Illinois, Arizona, Vermont, and Pennsylvania, at $3.00 or above.

Bitcoin

This week: $67,651.35
Last week: $68,948.18
2 weeks ago: $71,145.72
6 months ago: $115,468.40
One year ago: $96,443.38
Five years ago: $46,158.54

Bitcoin couldn't even get as high as $68,700 this week. It's painfully obvious that the bloom is off this particular rose. ETF flows have been negative for weeks and the Ponzi seems to be collapsing upon itself. Almost nobody uses crypto as a means of exchange and as a store of value, it's a complete flop. There is almost no use case for cyrpto other than a slush fund for nefarious activity.

Bitcoin miners are turning their expansive networks of servers toward AI, closing out their chase for bitcoin rewards, which don't even cover the cost of electricity and hardware. Say goodbye to this obvious fraud within 18 months, if that long.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 60.66; last week: 65.32

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 1/23: $4,983.10
Gold price 1/30: $4,907.50
Gold price 2/6: $4,988.60
Gold price 2/13: $5,063.80
Gold price 2/20: $5,108.34

Silver price 1/23: $103.26
Silver price 1/30: $85.25
Silver price 2/6: $77.53
Silver price 2/13: $77.27
Silver price 2/20: $84.57

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 1/23: $4,989.23
Gold 1/30: $4,886.71
Gold 2/6: $4,964.07
Gold 2/13: $5,041.72
Gold 2/20: $5,130.00

Silver 1/23: $102.95
Silver 1/30: $84.63
Silver 2/6: $77.98
Silver 2/13: $77.19
Silver 2/20: $84.57

Surprisingly, the COMEX/LBMA price suppression cartel didn't take Lunar New Year as an opportunity to crash metals prices while Chinese markets were closed. In fact, the opposite occurred, with both metals rising, especially sharply on Friday, the last open trading day before markets in the East open at 6:00 pm ET Sunday evening.

Anybody hoping to buy the dip got outflanked by bullish trends prevailing. Friday's move higher might have been related to the situation in the Middle East, though it's difficult to tell. Volatility is likely to be maintained, but, for all intents and purposes, direction in gold and silver prices seems to have returned to a positive stance.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	88.51	100.00	94.27	94.00
1 oz silver bar:	88.00	107.50	97.82	98.59
1 oz gold coin:	5,322.92	5,627.34	5,467.43	5,462.11
1 oz gold bar:	5,315.58	5,514.23	5,389.86	5,384.80

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose marginally, to $96.17, a gain of 93 cents from the February 15 price of $95.24 per troy ounce. Premiums remain elevated.

The weekly eBay price survey revealed that retail dealers and casual buyers and sellers have adjusting to severe premiums, which remain in a range of 20-25% for small denominations.

WEEKEND WRAP

Tariffs, trade, the flow of oil, military conflict, AI encroachment, probably nothing...

At the Close, Friday, February 20, 2026:
Dow: 49,625.97, +230.81 (+0.47%)
NASDAQ: 22,886.07, +203.34 (+0.90%)
S&P 500: 6,909.51, +47.62 (+0.69%)
NYSE Composite: 23,452.60, +94.32 (+0.40%)

For the Week:
Dow: +125.04 (+0.25%)
NASDAQ: +339.40 (+1.51%)
S&P 500: +73.34 (+1.07%)
NYSE Composite: +126.51 (+0.54%)
Dow Transports: +497.86 (+2.57%)

Friday, February 20, 2026

GDP Drops to 1.4% in 4th Quarter of 2025; PCE Holding at 2.6%; Conflict with Iran Possibly on the Weekend Agenda; Markets Shaky

Despite being a short week and indices remaining near all-time highs, markets have shown quite a bit of intraday volatility.

Through Thursday's close, the Dow is down 103 points, the NASDAQ is up 136 points, and the S&P is up 25 points. The NASDAQ looks to break a string of five straight losing weeks. It has had only one week on the positive side, that being the first full week of 2026, January 5-9.

The big number for today is the delayed release of the initial estimate for 4th quarter, 2025 GDP. The BEA released the figure at 8:30 am ET, showing real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in October, November and December.

Putting together the four quarters of 2025 - (0.6%), 3.8%, 4.4%, 1.4% - and dividing by four, reveals that real GDP for 2025 was a substandard 2.25%.

Compared to 2024: 0.8% 3.6% 3.3% 1.9% = 2.40%

and 2023: 2.9% 2.5% 4.7% 3.4% = 3.375%

... the U.S. is running in reverse.

The government and the usual suspect mainstream expert economists will attribute the poor showing to the government shutdown, which is pure nonsense. The federal government may have halted some procurement in October and early November, but they almost certainly spent that money as quickly as possible, in late November and December. The truer picture would likely be found in the lack of holiday spending. Tapped out consumers weren't buying Christmas presents as much as they were paying inflated prices for food, rent, insurance, and taxes.

Wall Street apparently feels the same way. Stock futures took a bit of a dive on the GDP release. If there's any one group that has a feel for the pulse of commerce in America, it's the stock and bond traders of lower Manhattan, and they don't like what they're seeing.

Additionally, according to the BEA, "the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.6 percent in 2025, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in 2024. The PCE price index increased 2.6 percent, the same increase as in 2024. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent."

Those numbers aren't particularly indicative of stable prices. The PCE index and the CPI have been kept artificially lower over the past six months by declining oil and gas prices. With the overwhelming consensus suspecting the Trump administration - with assistance and urging by Israel - to initiate military action against Iran possibly this weekend, traders are more than a little bit spooked about the direction of the economy and global geo-politics. The continuing saga of the Epstein affairs add yet another layer of insecurity to the general malaise.

It's more than just your run-of-the-mill mess. The U.S. is weak and threatening to kick off a military excursion that almost certainly will lead to a larger conflict, if not regional, possibly global.

At the Close, Thursday, February 19, 2026:
Dow: 49,395.16, -267.50 (-0.54%)
NASDAQ: 22,682.73, -70.91 (-0.31%)
S&P 500: 6,861.89, -19.42 (-0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 23,358.27, -29.22 (-0.12%)

Thursday, February 19, 2026

Jobless Claims Near 5-Year Lows; Trade Deficit Widens Despite Tariffs; Ebay, Deere, Walmart Lead Earnings Parade as Futures Slip on Iran Fears

Wednesday was another one of those magical melt-up days on Wall Street that everybody has become so very used to witnessing, it's almost a crying shame if stocks don't go up for any particular reason. All indices started the session in the red, quickly popped to the positive and managed to hold onto about half of the session's gains.

These simplistic algorithmic gains don't hide the facts of a stumbling U.S. economy based mostly on shoddy, continually-revised--lower government data, like Non-farm Payrolls, CPI and GDP, the latter of which we'll get an advance look at tomorrow morning.

For today, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the U.S. trade balance (goods and services deficit) was $70.3 billion in December, up $17.3 billion from $53.0 billion in November, revised. The U.S. continues to insist on importing more than it exports. This is not surprising at all, even despite Trump's tariffs. For 2025, the goods and services deficit decreased $2.1 billion, or 0.2 percent, from 2024. Yep, those tariffs have made a huge impact.

Americans have been running trade deficits for the past 30 years, with no end in sight. Tariffs only make imports more expensive. USA-USA-USA! Hell, yeah!

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing rose to 16.3 in February, up from 12.6 a month ago.

Initial Jobless Claims came in at 209,000, down sharply from last week's estimate of 229K, and close to the lowest in five years. Despite AI causing significant workforce reductions, the number is not at all surprising, given that there are fewer U.S. jobs to being with, ergo, fewer people to let go.

After the close on Wednesday, a few more companies reported 4th quarter results.

eBay (EBAY) - strong quarter, stock up 6% pre-market
Doordash (DASH) - missed estimates, shares up 9% (go fig
ure) Kinross (KGC) - strong beat, top and bottom, stock flat (go figure
again!) Carvana (CVNA) - unimpressive 4Q, clouded guidance, stock down 7%

Thursday, before the bell, more reports:
First Magestic (AG) - earnings, revenue beat, dividend boost, up 3%
John Deere (DE) - solid guidance, shares up 6%
Walmart (WMT) - stable earnings, cautious guidance; stock up 1.5%
Wayfair (W) - sales pop, narrows loss, up 12%
Yeti (YETI) - earnings in line, tariff issues send stock down 7%

Stock futures are sliding on fears of U.S. attack on Iron over weekend; oil futures up for same reason. Gold continues to test $5,000. Silver advanced overnight to as high as $78.60.

General conditions are still quite shaky

At the Close, Wednesday, February 18, 2026:
Dow: 49,662.66, +129.47 (+0.26%)
NASDAQ: 22,753.63, +175.25 (+0.78%)
S&P 500: 6,881.31, +38.09 (+0.56%)
NYSE Composite: 23,387.49, +86.71 (+0.37%)

Wednesday, February 18, 2026

Fiverr, Another AI Casualty, Drops 23% After Earnings Report; AI Is a Rolling Juggernaut of Labor Destruction and Repositioning

AI adoption is already taking its toll in a variety of areas, the latest casualty being the gig economy freelance marketplace, fiverr, a site at which companies and/or individuals can hire out talent for a wide variety of tasks, from mowing lawns to babysitting to website development, graphics, and coding.

The company (FVRR) released its latest quarterly earnings report Wednesday morning. While able to surpass analyst estimates, the company issued a discouraging forecast, citing AI as one of the main causes for caution moving forward.

Micha Kaufman, the company’s founder and CEO, emphasized that the company is experiencing a major shift in AI adoption, with the marketplace evolving to make human talent more essential.

The above quote, taken from this Benzinga article which outlines the company's financial condition, doesn't make a load of sense. CEO Kaufman recognizes the shift toward AI, but in the same breath offers the opinion that his company will focus on making "human talent more essential," which is the exact opposite of what AI does. It degrades human talent. In some cases - and these will grow as AI becomes more robust - AI eliminates human interaction altogether.

Now, if all you need is somebody to do window washing or lawn care, fiverr is probably a good place to look. But, if you're a business manager seeking to expand opportunities, increase market share, create content, do sales analysis, or any of the hundreds of business activities that constitute day-to-day operations, AI can do them at a fracton of the cost of what these freelancers on fiverr are charging, many of them already pitching AI tools and integration themselves.

Taken through a lens that filters out the burgeoning impact of AI, Fiverr's metrics weren't all that bad.

Fiverr reported adjusted earnings per share of 86 cents, beating the analyst consensus estimate of 72 cents. Normally, that would be positive. However, given the current climate, with the view that AI is going to eliminate much of the business need for human interaction, it's a bummer.

Shares are down some 22-24% in pre-market trading. What's worse is that the compnay's stock is down some 97% from where it was five years ago. Pre-market quote for FVRR is $10.33, down from an all-time high of $323 in February, 2021. Ouch!

That's where the rubber meets the road. Most savvy business managers want to keep costs down, while having the ability to delegate tasks and keep the managers time open to pursue more important activities, like smoozing with upper management, playing golf, or actually improving the business. Such a manager might hire a fiverr freelancer for a specific task, and, if professionally performed, might keep the freelancer on call for other jobs. Meanwhile, this manager is firing all of his full-time employees as he finds free-lance replacements.

On an tangetial level, Ai is going to wreak havoc on accounting, reporting, and employment firms, especially ones like Paychex (PAYX) which handles all the government filings and payroll for many small and medium-sized companies. Another area of impact will be in HR departments. With the need for personnal management degraded, there will eventually be no need to have much more than a single person overseeing the human workforce. The days of nagging HR compliance overseers are soon to meet their just reward: the unemployment line.

The fivrr experience is far from an isolated case. AI is going to rupture corporate myths and the need for human labor. AI, and the emergence of robotics in the workplace will make human interaction almost an afterthought. This ongoing, dramtic change in the business landscape is certain to have long-lasting effects. The companies which embrace AI and robotics at the fastest pace are most likely to aviod becoming irrelevant, but many will fall by the wayside simply by not keeping up with rapidchanges in corporate structure. Forget the horrors of DEI. The blue-haired tattooed lowlife demanding a living wage will become a forgotten relic from an era of massive stupidity.

Wise investors will be looking to firms which adopt AI in crafty ways and send their legacy employees - at least at entry level for now - packing.

At the close, Tuesday, February 17, 2026:
Dow: 49,533.19, +32.26 (+0.07%)
NASDAQ: 22,578.38, +31.71 (+0.14%)
S&P 500: 6,843.22, +7.05 (+0.10%)
NYSE Composite: 23,300.78, -25.31 (-0.11%)

Sunday, February 15, 2026

WEEKEND WRAP: AI Begins to Ravage Industries; Major Changes Afoot; Middle East Quiet, Though Tensions Remain; Oil Drops, Gas Rises

Fearless Rick reporting, in person...

AI is improving rapidly, and this week it impacted various industries, the most impacted being insurance, finance, law, real estate, and software. Financial firms got th most attention. Schwab and Raymond James finished the week 7.4% and 8.7% lower, respectively. Stifel Financial dipped 3.8%. Morgan Stanley (parent co. of eTrade) lost 2.4%.

AI is disrupting just about everything. Soon enough, AI tools will make copyright and trademark laws essentially irrelevant. A service from Bytedance (parent of TikTok), called Seedance 2.0 promises users to...

"Experience true multi-modal AI video creation. Combine images, videos, audio, and text to generate cinematic content with precise reference capabilities, seamless video extension, and natural language control."

For reference, recall that, due to U.S. national security concerns, TikTok’s American operations were restructured into a separate entity called TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC, which officially launched on January 22, 2026. Under this structure, Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX each hold a 15% stake, collectively controlling 45% of the U.S. business. ByteDance retains a 19.9% stake, complying with U.S. law limiting Chinese ownership. The remaining 35.1% is held by other investors, including Michael Dell and Vastmere Strategic Investments.

Just as TikTok created a content firestorm, Seedance will eviscerate existing contracts with copyright holders, actors, producers, directors, TV and film studios because the software is inexpensive, available to anybody, works on any home computer and can generate images and video in a fraction of the time it takes traditional media. The backlash is likely to come in the form of more censorship by vested interests with close contact to internet infrastructure (Google, Amazon, Meta).

To show how rapidly AI is changing the landscape for content providers, here's the prompt I directed at Microsoft's 100% free Co-pilot AI this morning:

I would like a review of the past week in the financial world, including quotes for the major averages, which stocks were up, which were down, and a few paragraphs each devoted to the oil/gas industry, gas prices in the U.S., bitcoin and crypto, precious metals, and fixed income and treasuries. A summary of general market conditions and a look at the week ahead.

Here's what it returned, formatted for cut-and-paste application. It took less than 15 minutes start to finish, mostly because the human interaction (me) slowed the process. Actual computational time was less than two minutes.

Weekly snapshot — major averages (close of week)

S&P 500: 6,836.17
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 49,500.93
Nasdaq Composite: ~22,546–22,547

Who moved

Notable winners

Examples: Rivian; Coinbase; Fastly; Magna; several small‑cap and energy names posted strong weekly gains.

Notable losers

Examples: Pinterest; DraftKings; Bright Horizons; a number of speculative small caps and episodic weakness in some tech names tied to AI re‑rating.

Oil and gas industry

The oil and gas sector finished the week with mixed signals. Brent traded in the high‑$60s per barrel while WTI sat in the low‑$60s, with prices drifting on a mix of demand concerns and regional supply flows. Producers are balancing higher service costs and capital discipline against still‑solid cash flows. Mergers, production plans, and capital allocation decisions remain sensitive to short‑term price swings and OPEC+ signals. Market commentary this week emphasized inventory data and refinery throughput as the next near‑term drivers for crude.

U.S. gasoline prices

Retail gasoline moved only modestly week‑over‑week. National averages were roughly $2.90–$2.94 per gallon, with regional spreads (the West Coast notably higher) and small weekly upticks in some PADDs. Weekly fuel updates highlighted regional refinery maintenance and seasonal patterns as the main causes of local moves. Expect volatility around refinery turnarounds and any sudden crude swings.

Bitcoin and crypto

Bitcoin regained ground after mid‑week volatility, trading in the low $70k area by the weekend and showing a choppy but constructive weekly pattern. Crypto markets remained sensitive to macro headlines, regulatory chatter, and liquidity into spot and derivatives venues. Trading volumes and on‑chain metrics showed renewed activity, but not yet a broad risk‑on stampede; flows into ETFs and derivatives funding rates were notable drivers of intraday moves.

Precious metals

Gold rallied during the week, hitting weekly highs on a combination of softer inflation signals and risk‑off flows into safe havens. Silver and other precious metals followed, with traders citing the interplay between real yields and dollar moves as the dominant technical driver. Bullion market data showed a clear weekly uptick in prices and demand for hedging exposure.

Fixed income and Treasuries

Yields moved lower overall on softer inflation cues and some weaker economic prints, though the week included spikes tied to stronger‑than‑expected payrolls earlier in the period that briefly pushed yields higher. The 10‑year Treasury traded with intra‑week swings and closed the week reflecting continued uncertainty about the timing and pace of Fed easing. Duration and credit spreads tightened in pockets as investors rebalanced between risk and safety.

General market conditions

Macro data and Fed expectations: Mixed economic prints kept markets oscillating between risk‑on and risk‑off. Stronger payrolls earlier in the week briefly lifted yields and pressured growth and tech names, while softer inflation readings later eased rate‑cut timing bets.

Sector rotation and AI headlines: Debate over the breadth of the AI trade produced sharp moves in software, semiconductors, and adjacent sectors as analysts re‑priced winners and potential losers.

Commodities and FX: Moves in oil and metals fed through to energy and materials stocks; the dollar’s direction amplified moves in gold and crypto.

The week ahead

Economic calendar: Watch remaining monthly data such as retail sales and industrial production, plus the next inflation and labor releases — these will steer Fed‑cut expectations and Treasury yields.
Earnings and guidance: Corporate reports and management commentary, especially from large tech and AI‑exposed firms, can re‑ignite sector rotations.
Energy and refinery updates: Unexpected outages or inventory surprises could move crude and gasoline prices and ripple into energy equities.
Crypto flows and regulatory headlines: Monitor ETF flows, derivatives funding rates, and any regulatory announcements that could change liquidity or institutional appetite.

OK, it's far from perfect, but, complete output in a fraction of the time for human production, and that's using a free service. The paid services are much more robust, faster, think deeper, and, with training, produce more robust and useful information.

The essay, Something Big Is Happening, published by Matt Shumer on February 9, caught a lot of people's attention, as did Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman statement that most professional white-collar tasks could be fully automated within the next two years, outlining a timeline that would affect workers across industries, including law, accounting, and marketing.

"I think that we're going to have a human-level performance on most, if not all, professional tasks,” he said. “So white collar work, where you're sitting down at a computer, either being a lawyer or an accountant or a project manager or a marketing person, most of those tasks will be fully automated by an AI within the next 12 to 18 months.”

Having just toyed with AI the past six months or so, I can definitely see what the experts are warning about. As with any new technology, from the automobile, the cotton gin, telephone, or personal computers, there is going to be an adjustment period in affected industries where people lose jobs while other, more creative or resourceful types move up the corporate ladder, companies fail while others thrive and whole sectors are affected.

AI, being massively disruptive in its ability to mirror or even replace human interaction, is, at least, a productivity-enhancing tool. It performs tasks faster than humans can, and, with each improved iteration, it performs those tasks better and with more accuracy. This technology will replace jobs, or, for companies which recognize talent and wish to retain the best, will foment a radical shift in employment and wages. Top performers who can master AI at high levels will be rewarded with huge pay increases or reduced work time. The best human AI manipulators can work remotely or in office, at a relaxed pace, and outperform the 9-to-5 desk jockeys by degrees of magnitude.

Some will be rewarded. Others will become manual laborers, baristas, or fall into extended unemployment. No matter what happens, the disruptions in labor and productivity are going to be profound and long-lasting. AI is not a one-off technology. It has already improved by leaps and bounds, and, if Moore's Law holds sway, the predictions of Matt Shumer and Mustafa Suleyman might actually be on the conservative side of the argument.

AI could, and probably will, advance in proficiency and reliability at an amazingly rapid pace. Anybody who uses a computer for work should right now be brainstorming - with or without the assistance of AI - how to survive the coming upheaval. Finances, lifestyles, and even basic survival skills must be examined to fit into the evolving new world that's being presented by this intrusive, game-changing technology that prioritizes information over human interaction.

The future is going to be magnificent and horrifying at the same time. I'll be presenting more information in the March 2026 feature article on idleguy.com in two weeks.

For now, let's just say, you've been alerted.

Stocks

The NASDAQ suffered its fifth straight weekly loss. The Dow and S&P lost ground for the fourth time n the past five. Clearly, there's been institutional distribution and retail dip-buying at huge scale. Trading volume is roughly double what it was a year ago, and much of that has been on the downside of all-time highs. A suggestion that stocks may have been a bit overcooked could turn out to be the understatement of the year. Valuations are stretched to perfection while companies in a swath of sectors - from consumer discretionary to information technology - are under assault from AI and plain old profit-taking.

A near-term correction would seem likely. The NASDAQ is already down 5.4% from its October 29, 2025 high (23,958.47). Obviously, it has plenty of room to fall.

Markets are closed Monday for Presidents’ Day, but the week ahead offers a raft of economic data, some delayed still by the October government shutdown, starting with Empire State manufacturing (February) on Tuesday. Wednesday's drops include November and December Housing Starts, December Durable-goods Orders, January Federal Reserve FOMC minutes. On Thursday, the U.S. trade balance for December is reported, along with Initial jobless Claims, Retail and Wholesale inventories (December), February Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing and January's Pending Home Sales.

Inflation comes into focus on Friday with the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Also, the first reading of 4th quarer Gross Domestic Product (GDP), S&P flash Purchasing Manager Index, December New Home Sales and Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan.

The week ahead will also feature more earnings reports with Walmart, the only Dow component, reporting Thursday morning:

Monday: President's Day (stock and bond markets closed)

Tuesday: (before open) Vulcan Materials (VMC), Medtronic (MDT), ; (after close) Hecla Mining (HL), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Devon Energy (DVN), Toll Brothers (TOL)

Wednesday: (before open) Bausch & Lomb (BLCO), fiverr (FVRR), Analog Devices (ADI), Garmin (GRMN); (after close) eBay (EBAY), Doordash (DASH), Equinox Gold (EQX), Kinross (KGC), Carvana (CVNA), PanAmerican Silver (PAAS)

Thursday: (before open) First Magestic (AG), John Deere (DE), Walmart (WMT), Klarna (KLAR), Wayfair (W), Yeti (YETI); (after close) Newmont Mining (NEM), Akamai (AKAM), Live Nation (LYV), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), Opendoor (OPEN), Transocean (RIG)

Friday: (before open) Western Union (WU), Lamar (LAMR), Telix (TLX), Anglo Gold Ashanti (AU)

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
01/09/2026	3.70	3.68	3.63	3.62	3.62	3.57	3.52
01/16/2026	3.75	3.72	3.68	3.67	3.66	3.60	3.55
01/23/2026	3.78	3.71	3.72	3.70	3.67	3.61	3.53
01/30/2026	3.72	3.73	3.75	3.67	3.69	3.61	3.48
02/06/2026	3.72	3.72	3.74	3.68	3.70	3.59	3.45
02/13/2026	3.72	3.71	3.73	3.68	3.70	3.59	3.42

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
01/09/2026	3.54	3.59	3.75	3.95	4.18	4.76	4.82
01/16/2026	3.59	3.67	3.82	4.02	4.24	4.79	4.83
01/23/2026	3.60	3.67	3.84	4.03	4.24	4.78	4.82
01/30/2026	3.52	3.60	3.79	4.01	4.26	4.82	4.87
02/06/2026	3.50	3.57	3.76	3.98	4.22	4.80	4.85
02/13/2026	3.40	3.43	3.61	3.81	4.04	4.64	4.69

This week's treasury yields reveal more about the stock market than anything else. A flight to the safety of fixed income is clearly underway, with yields of the 10-year note falling 18 basis points and the 30-year bond dipping 16, causing a squeeze in spreads from previously-stretched levels. 2s-10s fell to +64 from +72 last week and full spectrum dropped to +97 from +113.

Spreads and yields are evidence of financial stress which have only recently been prevalent. If anything, the stubbornness of short-dated maturities to budge from the high end of the federal funds target rate (3.50-3.75%) coupled with flattening of the curve suggests a rough path forward. There's no need to be reminded of the Fed's self-imposed entrapment, with inflation still on the mind and the economy straining for momentum. The AI-induced selloff in stocks is likely to continue in fits and starts, but could possibly expand more quickly than many traders assume, which would trigger long maturities even lower, flattening the curve and wiping out profitable spreads.

Nobody makes money in a flat-line situation and that certainly appears to be taking shape. The 10-year yield under 4.00% and the 30-year chasing it down isn't a very competitive structure, especially with foreign buyers on the run. With most analysis seeing the Fed stuck on hold until Kevin Warsh takes over from Jerome Powell in June, a sudden jerk lower in stocks might change some minds in a hurry. The next meeting (March 17-18) is still a month away, so the potential for an emergency cut may grow.

Thursday's big drop on the Dow might have been a sell signal at an institutional level.

Spreads:

Oil/Gas

WTI crude closed out the week at $60.58, easing back from last week's finish at $63.50 on some slight easing of tensions in the Middle East. Somebody knows something following Israel's Netanyahu visit to D.C., as President Trump's remarks and tweets suggest that negotiations are still possible, though "all options" (war) remain on the table. The U.S. military command realizes that any kinetic action against Iran will likely result in a protracted conflict, which is maybe what the meeting between Trump, Bibi, and a host of civilians, with no military input, portends.

The markets prefer the dovish path defined by Trump, though the reality is probably quite different and much more messy.

The U.S. national average for gas at the pump rose another three cents, to $2.92 by Sunday.

California ramped up another 12 cents this week, to $4.55 per gallon, the highest in the nation and up 24 cents in just the past two weeks. Washington ($4.12) popped back into the $4+ club. Oregon ($3.61), was up 12 cents. After three weeks under $3.00, Arizona is above $3.00 for second straight week, at $3.15. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma well below any other state, at $2.25, followed by Louisiana ($2.40), Arkansas and Mississippi ($2.43). The remaining Southeast states, from North Carolina ($2.69) west to New Mexico, are all below $2.70, except Florida ($2.87).

In the Northeast, prices remained steady and consistently close to recent lows. Only Pennsylvania ($3.11) was above $3.00. New York held steady at $2.97, along with Vermont ($2.99).

In the midwest region, where the price relief has been significant, Illinois remained the highest, holding at $3.00, up ten cents from two weeks past, with Michigan closer, at $2.98. Kansas was the lowest ($2.46), followed by North Dakota and Iowa ($2.47).

Sub-$3.00 gas was the norm in 41 of the lower 48 states, the same as last week, leaving only California, Washington, Nevada, Oregon, Illinois, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, at $3.00 or above.

Bitcoin

This week: $68,948.18
Last week: $71,145.72
2 weeks ago: $77,242.74
6 months ago: $117,555.50
One year ago: $97,544.53
Five years ago: $55,936.80

With overall liquidity becoming more and more an issue, bitcoin is feeling the pain, nearing a loss of 50% over the past six months. At current levels, anybody who bought into bitcoin in the past 15 months (November 2024) is holding at a loss or, more likely, has already moved on to other pursuits.

It's not going to get any better for bitcoiners or others invested in crypto, it being speculative in the extreme.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 65.32; last week: 63.66

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 1/16: $4,601.10
Gold price 1/23: $4,983.10
Gold price 1/30: $4,907.50
Gold price 2/6: $4,988.60
Gold price 2/13: $5,063.80

Silver price 1/16: $89.94
Silver price 1/23: $103.26
Silver price 1/30: $85.25
Silver price 2/6: $77.53
Silver price 2/13: $77.27

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 1/16: $4,595.42
Gold 1/23: $4,989.23
Gold 1/30: $4,886.71
Gold 2/6: $4,964.07
Gold 2/13: $5,041.72

Silver 1/16: $89.94
Silver 1/23: $102.95
Silver 1/30: $84.63
Silver 2/6: $77.98
Silver 2/13: $77.19

Silver got whacked again on Thursday, February 12, dropping it from bids around $83 down to $75. Gold was also clubbed to a lesser extent, rallying on Friday to hold above $5,000.

It's Lunar (Chinese) New Year, so the SGE and SHFE, along with all Chinese stock exchanges are closed until Monday, February 23rd. It will be interesting to watch what the COMEX and LBMA riggers do with gold, and especially, silver pricing with the physical market in China shut down. Of course, there's still trading in Mumbai, Singapore, Dubai, and elsewhere with which to contend, so the week ahead may offer some insight to just how well-positioned Western traders are compared to their Asian counterparts.

Sit back and enjoy the show.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	85.00	110.00	95.74	94.00
1 oz silver bar:	84.00	110.00	96.41	94.79
1 oz gold coin:	5,050.00	5,563.19	5,419.49	5,418.28
1 oz gold bar:	5,069.00	5,419.38	5,332.83	5,357.51

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) took another drop this week, falling to $95.24, a decline of $2.27 from the February 8 price of $97.51 per troy ounce. The weekly movement reflects wider volatility in world markets and between physical and paper prices.

The weekly eBay price survey revealed that retail dealers and casual buyers and sellers are adjusting to severe premiums, likely the latter in terms of dealers, most of which don't have the cash resources to hedge against the recent wild swings. Supposedly, coin shops have been inundated with gold and silver sellers, hocking, according to Bloomberg (which means it's likely fake news) all of grandma's silverware. Most anybody who is selling their bullion or coinage does not appreciate the dynamics of the market and the positions of the small dealers. Premiums at dealers and on ebay are 20-25% for small denominations, so the small stackers are apparently confident that the recent smackdowns are temporary, which is also the opinion of most serious silver analysts.

WEEKEND WRAP

Change is usually good, and, presently, probably necessary. Old hacks need to be retired. Many are no longer useful nor desired.

At the Close, Friday, February 13, 2026:
Dow: 49,500.93, +48.95 (+0.10%)
NASDAQ: 22,546.67, -50.48 (-0.22%)
S&P 500: 6,836.17, +3.41 (+0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 23,326.09, +137.27 (+0.59%)

For the Week:
Dow: -614.74 (-1.23%)
NASDAQ: -484.54 (-2.10%)
S&P 500: -96.13 (-1.39%)
NYSE Composite: +73.28 (+0.32%)
Dow Transports: -549.04 (-2.76%)

Friday, February 13, 2026

Stocks, Silver Got Rocked Lower Thursday; Friday the 13th Setting Up for Volatile Session; January CPI Reported at 2.4% Annually

Thursday morning, Money Daily noted that trading in stocks was sluggish and that the major indices were becoming very tempting to short.

It didn't take long for markets to confirm the timeliness of the observation. All three majors jumped higher out of the gate, but quickly reversed course, the NASDAQ needing just 15 minutes to dip into the red, where it remained the rest of the day. The Dow and S&P followed suit, as the indices got back to the kind of volatility that had been typical for most of the year thus far.

The financial press trotted out the usual suspects for the declines: fears of AI disruption to labor markets and geo-political conditions. What they failed to mention were the number of companies producing fourth quarter 2025 numbers that were disappointing or questionably negative 2026 forecasts. This earnings season has been one of the most challenging in years, companies in nearly all sectors outside of tech and large-cap industrials have been beset by underlying forces of tariffs, supply chain concerns, and lack of pricing power in the face of stretched consumer budgets.

Factset reported last week that with 59% of all S&P 500 companies reporting, 76% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 78%. The report also shows that all sectors other than information technology and communications services are showing single digit revenue growth. The report fails to account for the number of companies issuing unfavorable guidance or EPS and/or revenue that failed to beat prior quarter or year-ago results, of which there are many.

While Wall Street hustlers continue to herd the public into a false sense of security, insiders and executives have been taking profits, selling off their own shares while having the company buy back shares, effectively boosting EPS by lowering the number of shares outstanding. It's a trick Wall Street has been employing for the past two decades, hiding the fat that many of the high-flying stocks have gotten rich not by expanding their businesses or investing in CapEx or research, but by limiting the number of shares available to the public, which has pushed individual stocks and the general indices to record highs over and over again.

Thursday's rout now on the back-burner of some very short memories, the BLS released January CPI Friday morning, delivering a much-needed dose of disinflationary information. Month-over-month, CPI increased only 0.2% and 2.4% on an annual basis, down from 2.7% in December. This should come as welcome news to the crowd favoring rate cuts, as they can now claim inflation is close enough to the Fed's 2.0% target that inflation concerns can be put aside, making way for further cuts to the federal funds target rate to boost the economy.

Arguing for rate cuts as a way to improve economic conditions is close to, but not entirely, an admission the the U.S. economy is not 100% or the "hottest" on the planet, according to President Trump. Consumers are strapped and need relief in the form of lower prices, though what's addressed in the CPI fails to include much of the hidden costs of 21st century living, like property taxes, insurance, and health care, all of which have been skyrocketing of late.

Like clockwork, stock futures ripped higher on the CPI announcement, though the move only served to take futures out of the red and briefly into positive territory, a very unconvincing bump. about 45 minutes prior to the opening bell, Dow futures stood at -19; NASDAQ futures, -19; S&P futures, -7.

Silver was punished for being a valuable asset on the COMEX, Thursday with the price of an ounce down more than 10%, "selling" for as low as $73.86. Not coincidentally, Chinese New Year is underway, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) closed from February 13 to the 20th. Anybody considering stocking some precious metals might find this an opportune time to do so, as prices for physical are nowhere near the paper prices pumped by the COMEX and LBMA riggers. Good luck finding shiny close to spot prices. Dealers are reporting shortages and long lead times. The U.S. mint isn't selling any silver one-ounce coins for less than $169, which is more than double the spot price. Yes, that is odd.

For the week, through Thursday's close, the Dow is down 663 points, the NASDAQ is off 434, and the S&P is down 99.

Stocks reporting Thursday after the close included:

Pinterest (PINS) - revenue miss, weak guidance, shares down 22% pre-market
Coinbase (COIN) - net loss, 20% lower revenue, shares up 7%
DraftKings (DKNG) - forecast short of estimates, stock down 15%
Applied Materials (AMAT) - upbeat outlook, demand from AI, shares up 10%
Expedia (EXPE) - earnings beat, shares down 5%
Dutch Bros. (BROS) - strong quarter, expansion plans boost shares 15%

Friday, before the open:

Wendy's (WEN) - slaes down, stock down 4%
Advance Auto Parts (AAP) - sales growth, positive forecast, shares up 10%
Moderna (MRNA) - narrows loss, reiterates growth target, sheas higher by 4%

Bombing Iran shortly after the close a distinct possibility.

At the Close, Thursday, February 12, 2026:
Dow: 49,451.98, -669.42 (-1.34%)
NASDAQ: 22,597.15, -469.32 (-2.03%)
S&P 500: 6,832.76, -108.71 (-1.57%)
NYSE Composite: 23,188.82, -290.90 (-1.24%)

Money Daily

Sunday, March 1, 2026

WEEKEND WRAP: WAR with Iran; Anthropic AI Booted by War Department; Investors Flood into Treasuries, Gold, Silver; Oil About to Break Out

Friday, February 27, 2026

AI Strikes Again: Jack Dorsey's Block (XYZ) Cuts Jobs in Favor of AI, Stock Soars; January PPI Shows Inflation Remains Above Fed Target

Thursday, February 26, 2026

Nvidia Smashes Expectations, as Usual; Fails to Ignite Confidence Rally; US-Iran Talks Continue Toward Peaceful Resolution

Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Trump SOTU Draws Battle Lines for Midterms, Portrays Democrats as Un-American, Softens Tone on Iran, Gives Markets a Boost

Tuesday, February 24, 2026

The Core Message of AI: Skate to Where the Puck is Going and Don't Get Fooled Again with IBM Under Assault

Monday, February 23, 2026

WEEKEND WRAP: Tariffs, Trade, Flow of Crude Oil, Military Conflict, AI Encroachment, Probably Nothing; Stocks, Oil, Gold, Silver Rise as Bitcoin Fails

Friday, February 20, 2026

GDP Drops to 1.4% in 4th Quarter of 2025; PCE Holding at 2.6%; Conflict with Iran Possibly on the Weekend Agenda; Markets Shaky

Thursday, February 19, 2026

Jobless Claims Near 5-Year Lows; Trade Deficit Widens Despite Tariffs; Ebay, Deere, Walmart Lead Earnings Parade as Futures Slip on Iran Fears

Wednesday, February 18, 2026

Fiverr, Another AI Casualty, Drops 23% After Earnings Report; AI Is a Rolling Juggernaut of Labor Destruction and Repositioning

Sunday, February 15, 2026

WEEKEND WRAP: AI Begins to Ravage Industries; Major Changes Afoot; Middle East Quiet, Though Tensions Remain; Oil Drops, Gas Rises

Weekly snapshot — major averages (close of week)

Who moved

Notable winners

Notable losers

Oil and gas industry

U.S. gasoline prices

Bitcoin and crypto

Precious metals

Fixed income and Treasuries

General market conditions

The week ahead

Friday, February 13, 2026

Stocks, Silver Got Rocked Lower Thursday; Friday the 13th Setting Up for Volatile Session; January CPI Reported at 2.4% Annually

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Weekly snapshot — major averages (close of week)

Who moved

Notable winners

Notable losers

Oil and gas industry

U.S. gasoline prices

Bitcoin and crypto

Precious metals

Fixed income and Treasuries

General market conditions

The week ahead

Friday, February 13, 2026

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