As dull a session as there has been for many months, Thursday's action was muted and indecisive, with stocks trading in very tight ranges.
There's some concern over the coming effects of hurricane Irma, the disaster of the week that has captured the attention of people who are afraid of shadows and dark rooms.
With the media, with help from Florida's Governor, officials from FEMA and other officious morons panicking the entire population of the Sunshine State, the expected destruction had better be significant or stocks will spend Monday of next week making up for lost time and lost profits.
In the meantime, there's ample evidence exhaustion in the equity markets, while significant action in bonds and precious metals with gold and silver scoring large gains on the day and the 10-year note yield plummeting back to levels not seen in ten months, below 2.06%.
All of this points toward a potential bloodbath Friday and the first losing week in the past three for the main indices.
With minutes until the opening bell on Friday, futures are down significantly, with the Dow futures trending lower by some 60 points.
Keep you stops close, this could get ugly.
At The Close, 9/7/17
Dow: 21,784.78, -22.86 (-0.10%)
NASDAQ: 6,397.87, +4.55 (+0.07%)
S&P 500: 2,465.10, -0.44 (-0.02%)
NYSE Composite: 11,879.61, +6.69 (+0.06%)
Friday, September 8, 2017
Wednesday, September 6, 2017
Stocks Bounce, but Fail to Erase Previous Losses; Congressional Republicans in Shock
Stocks rebounded from Tuesday's drubbing, but not nearly enough to erase the damage done, a classic dead cat bounce.
News was heavy, most of it coming out of Washington, where President Donald Trump reportedly reached agreement with congressional democrats on not only a debt ceiling increase but funding for hurricane Harvey victims and at least the outline of a continuing resolution. The proposed legislative deal would fund the government through December 15, upsetting - only in Washington - Republicans, who hoped for a longer debate on all of the issues.
Obviously, Trump has determined that with friends like his fellow Republicans in congress, he doesn't need enemies, thus making compromises with Democrats. It's actually - for a fellow who's supposedly not a politician - pretty smart politics. Republicans, included Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell and House leader, Paul Ryan, were reportedly angered over the development.
Wall Street was immediately impressed, though stocks tailed off noticeably into the close.
Trump also tamped down recent bellicosity toward North Korea, hoping that China would do more to keep leader Kim Jong-un on a short leash.
Federal Reserve vice-chairman, Stanley Fischer announced that he would retire from his position on October 13, a surprise leaving open one of the most prestigious seats in Washington and a puzzler for Fed watchers. Fischer cited personal reasons for his decision, but speculation is that the departure has more to do with health than money, but suspect that Janet Yellen will be out at the culmination of her term in February.
Hurricane Irma continued to barrel towards Florida, the Fed's beige book revealed that members thought the economy was showing signs of improvement, though the continuing bemoaning over a lack of inflation was prominent.
While stocks improved modestly, the effect was greater on fixed income and precious metals. Gold and silver halted their recent advances and bond yields rose, with the 10-year note increasing to 2.11%
Overall, nothing was settled, except that Washington might actually avoid the drama that usually surrounds debt ceiling and budget debates, which is actually quite a positive development.
Trump making deals? Who knew?
At the Close, 9/6/17:
Dow: 21,807.64, +54.33 (+0.25%)
NASDAQ: 6,393.31, +17.74 (+0.28%)
S&P 500: 2,465.54, +7.69 (+0.31%)
NYSE Composite: 11,872.92, +45.77 (+0.39%)
News was heavy, most of it coming out of Washington, where President Donald Trump reportedly reached agreement with congressional democrats on not only a debt ceiling increase but funding for hurricane Harvey victims and at least the outline of a continuing resolution. The proposed legislative deal would fund the government through December 15, upsetting - only in Washington - Republicans, who hoped for a longer debate on all of the issues.
Obviously, Trump has determined that with friends like his fellow Republicans in congress, he doesn't need enemies, thus making compromises with Democrats. It's actually - for a fellow who's supposedly not a politician - pretty smart politics. Republicans, included Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell and House leader, Paul Ryan, were reportedly angered over the development.
Wall Street was immediately impressed, though stocks tailed off noticeably into the close.
Trump also tamped down recent bellicosity toward North Korea, hoping that China would do more to keep leader Kim Jong-un on a short leash.
Federal Reserve vice-chairman, Stanley Fischer announced that he would retire from his position on October 13, a surprise leaving open one of the most prestigious seats in Washington and a puzzler for Fed watchers. Fischer cited personal reasons for his decision, but speculation is that the departure has more to do with health than money, but suspect that Janet Yellen will be out at the culmination of her term in February.
Hurricane Irma continued to barrel towards Florida, the Fed's beige book revealed that members thought the economy was showing signs of improvement, though the continuing bemoaning over a lack of inflation was prominent.
While stocks improved modestly, the effect was greater on fixed income and precious metals. Gold and silver halted their recent advances and bond yields rose, with the 10-year note increasing to 2.11%
Overall, nothing was settled, except that Washington might actually avoid the drama that usually surrounds debt ceiling and budget debates, which is actually quite a positive development.
Trump making deals? Who knew?
At the Close, 9/6/17:
Dow: 21,807.64, +54.33 (+0.25%)
NASDAQ: 6,393.31, +17.74 (+0.28%)
S&P 500: 2,465.54, +7.69 (+0.31%)
NYSE Composite: 11,872.92, +45.77 (+0.39%)
Tuesday, September 5, 2017
Bonds Don't Lie As Risk Rears Ugly Head At Stocks
Sooner or later, all good things come to an end, and it appears that the 101 month bull run in US equities is just about over.
All things considered, from global uncertainty (think North Korea, and immigration, currently) to underfunded pensions (about half of the states' public retirement funds) to the upcoming debate over the debt ceiling and nothing looks really positive about the American economy, the same one that has limped along at less than three percent annual growth for almost nine years.
Last Friday's miss on the non-farm payroll data certainly didn't help matters on Monday as once-giddy speculators were morose and confused, many seeking the safety of bonds.
While a somewhat ugly day for stocks, bonds were bid with gusto, the 10-year note getting so much action it hit its lowest yield since two days after Trump's election, crashing to 2.06%, on what turned out to be the best day for bond bulls since Brexit (June, 2016). It's fairly obvious by now that the benchmark 10-year will be yielding below two percent soon, the level it was occupying prior to the surprise presidential election of Donald J. Trump.
In an odd way, stock pickers may have an opening or two. Since bond yields are horrible, stocks, though vastly overvalued, may be worthwhile investments for those willing to take the risk. On the other hand, there may not be many stocks which are able to perform well through a prolonged recession, possible debt defaults around the world and a demographic nightmare that makes all other metrics pale by comparison.
Spoken of before in this space, the demographic dilemma cannot be understated. All of the developed nations are aging, starting with Japan and Germany, and older people simply do not spend as much or with as much frequency as younger folks. Aging populations are settled in their ways, move slowly (if at all) and are very conscious of their spending habits, many of them on fixed incomes.
That said, inflation is virtually impossible, pricing power for companies difficult if at all attainable. All that's left is financial engineering, cooking the books and keeping the creditors in the dark or off the doorstep.
Even the mighty Dow Industrials slipped again, for the ninth time in the last 20 sessions. The popular index is down more than 500 points over that span.
Precious metals also had a solid day, again, continuing the trend begun mid-August.
Stocks have crossed the rubicon.
At the Close, 9/5/17:
Dow: 21,753.31, -234.25 (-1.07%)
NASDAQ: 6,375.57, -59.76 (-0.93%)
S&P 500 2,457.85, -18.70 (-0.76%)
NYSE Composite: 11,827.15, -90.93 (-0.76%)
All things considered, from global uncertainty (think North Korea, and immigration, currently) to underfunded pensions (about half of the states' public retirement funds) to the upcoming debate over the debt ceiling and nothing looks really positive about the American economy, the same one that has limped along at less than three percent annual growth for almost nine years.
Last Friday's miss on the non-farm payroll data certainly didn't help matters on Monday as once-giddy speculators were morose and confused, many seeking the safety of bonds.
While a somewhat ugly day for stocks, bonds were bid with gusto, the 10-year note getting so much action it hit its lowest yield since two days after Trump's election, crashing to 2.06%, on what turned out to be the best day for bond bulls since Brexit (June, 2016). It's fairly obvious by now that the benchmark 10-year will be yielding below two percent soon, the level it was occupying prior to the surprise presidential election of Donald J. Trump.
In an odd way, stock pickers may have an opening or two. Since bond yields are horrible, stocks, though vastly overvalued, may be worthwhile investments for those willing to take the risk. On the other hand, there may not be many stocks which are able to perform well through a prolonged recession, possible debt defaults around the world and a demographic nightmare that makes all other metrics pale by comparison.
Spoken of before in this space, the demographic dilemma cannot be understated. All of the developed nations are aging, starting with Japan and Germany, and older people simply do not spend as much or with as much frequency as younger folks. Aging populations are settled in their ways, move slowly (if at all) and are very conscious of their spending habits, many of them on fixed incomes.
That said, inflation is virtually impossible, pricing power for companies difficult if at all attainable. All that's left is financial engineering, cooking the books and keeping the creditors in the dark or off the doorstep.
Even the mighty Dow Industrials slipped again, for the ninth time in the last 20 sessions. The popular index is down more than 500 points over that span.
Precious metals also had a solid day, again, continuing the trend begun mid-August.
Stocks have crossed the rubicon.
At the Close, 9/5/17:
Dow: 21,753.31, -234.25 (-1.07%)
NASDAQ: 6,375.57, -59.76 (-0.93%)
S&P 500 2,457.85, -18.70 (-0.76%)
NYSE Composite: 11,827.15, -90.93 (-0.76%)
Saturday, September 2, 2017
Was September 1st a Market Reality Check? Gold Hits One-Year High
On Friday, after it was announced that August non-farm payrolls had increased by a less-than-expected 156,000, stock futures ramped higher heading into the opening bell on Wall Street.
Stocks did indeed gain, on the twisted hope that a soft labor market would chill Fed ambitions to raise interest rates and/or begin to wind down their massive, $4 trillion balance sheet when the FOMC meets September 12 and 13.
Those were the thoughts of traders in the morning, but, when the NASDAQ fell briefly into the red mid-morning, sentiment seemed to take on a more sober tone, as the reality of a stuttering recovery over the past eight years - fueled primarily by massive infusions of freshly-created cash by central banks and historically-low interest rates - might actually be - rather than good news - bad news.
All of the major indices finished with gains, but they were hardly of the kind that one could take comfort in as the long Labor Day weekend commenced.
Rather, the afternoon session was mild, largely belonging to fixed assets, as precious metals traded briskly. Gold went into the weekend trading at a one-year high, $1320.40 the ounce, silver, while it didn't make any historic high marks, gains 16 cents, ending at $17.50, a mid-point range advantageous to speculation on both sides of the trade.
The 10-year note firmed up at a 2.15% yield and crude oil, in the aftermath of hurricane Harvey, regained its footing, trading higher in the afternoon to $47.35 per barrel.
Was this a wake-up call for equity traders and general market participants?
Doubtful. But, it is somewhat instructive to take into account that the second-longest bull market in history has been built on promises, fallacies, distortions, and the conjuring of more than $14 trillion worldwide.
Bull markets all end. And this one, 101 months old, is more likely to end sooner than later.
At the Close, 9/1/17:
Dow: 21,987.56, +39.46 (+0.18%)
NASDAQ: 6,435.33, +6.67 (+0.10%)
S&P 500: 2,476.55, +4.90 (+0.20%)
NYSE Composite: 11,918.08, +42.39 (+0.36%)
For the Week:
Dow: +173.89 (+0.80%)
NASDAQ: +169.69 (+2.71%)
S&P 500: +35.50 (+1.37%)
NYSE Composite: +106.05 (+0.90%)
Stocks did indeed gain, on the twisted hope that a soft labor market would chill Fed ambitions to raise interest rates and/or begin to wind down their massive, $4 trillion balance sheet when the FOMC meets September 12 and 13.
Those were the thoughts of traders in the morning, but, when the NASDAQ fell briefly into the red mid-morning, sentiment seemed to take on a more sober tone, as the reality of a stuttering recovery over the past eight years - fueled primarily by massive infusions of freshly-created cash by central banks and historically-low interest rates - might actually be - rather than good news - bad news.
All of the major indices finished with gains, but they were hardly of the kind that one could take comfort in as the long Labor Day weekend commenced.
Rather, the afternoon session was mild, largely belonging to fixed assets, as precious metals traded briskly. Gold went into the weekend trading at a one-year high, $1320.40 the ounce, silver, while it didn't make any historic high marks, gains 16 cents, ending at $17.50, a mid-point range advantageous to speculation on both sides of the trade.
The 10-year note firmed up at a 2.15% yield and crude oil, in the aftermath of hurricane Harvey, regained its footing, trading higher in the afternoon to $47.35 per barrel.
Was this a wake-up call for equity traders and general market participants?
Doubtful. But, it is somewhat instructive to take into account that the second-longest bull market in history has been built on promises, fallacies, distortions, and the conjuring of more than $14 trillion worldwide.
Bull markets all end. And this one, 101 months old, is more likely to end sooner than later.
At the Close, 9/1/17:
Dow: 21,987.56, +39.46 (+0.18%)
NASDAQ: 6,435.33, +6.67 (+0.10%)
S&P 500: 2,476.55, +4.90 (+0.20%)
NYSE Composite: 11,918.08, +42.39 (+0.36%)
For the Week:
Dow: +173.89 (+0.80%)
NASDAQ: +169.69 (+2.71%)
S&P 500: +35.50 (+1.37%)
NYSE Composite: +106.05 (+0.90%)
Friday, September 1, 2017
Great News! August Jobs Numbers Miss; Stocks Aim For Moon Shot
Bad news is still good news on Wall Street.
According to the impeccable source of all financial excitement, Yahoo! News,
The rest of the story is here.
After ten years of the most tepid "recovery" on record, and despite $14 trillion of magic money creation by the central banks of the developed countries (adding in China, it's more like $18 trillion), poor employment data is still greeted with smiles by stock jockeys, because it means the economy is not really recovering and the Fed and other globalist central banks cannot realistically raise interest rates.
That means the punch bowl will be refilled with easy credit and the bubbly stock market can advance to every higher levels of insanity.
Forget that the average P/E of S&P 500 stocks is four standard deviations above the norm, that government pension shortfalls threaten the retirement of millions of aging Americans. Forget that wages have been stagnant for 17 years running. Just buy more stocks and everything will turn out just fine.
It's madness. Nothing, absolutely nothing will change until the day comes when it all changes at once. But that day may still be years away because the central banks and government number crunchers will see to it that the veil is never removed from the eyes of ordinary people who will be taxed and regulated into the ether.
There are no jobs. Party on!
At the Close, 8/31/17:
Dow: 21,948.10, +55.67 (+0.25%)
NASDAQ: 6,428.66, +60.35 (+0.95%)
S&P 500: 2,471.65, +14.06 (+0.57%)
NYSE Composite: 11,875.69, +70.62 (+0.60%)
According to the impeccable source of all financial excitement, Yahoo! News,
The August jobs report is out and it’s a miss.
The U.S. economy added 156,000 nonfarm payrolls in August while the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, according to the latest figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Economists were looking nonfarm payrolls to grow by 180,000 in August while the unemployment rate was expected to hold steady at 4.3% near a post-crisis low. The BLS noted in its report that Hurricane Harvey had “no [discernible] effect” on the employment data for August.
Wage growth was also a disappointment, with average hourly earnings rising 0.1% over the prior month and 2.5% over last year. Earnings were expected to rise 0.2% over the prior month and 2.6% over the prior year. A rise in wages is seen by economists as portending an uptick in inflation, which has disappointed this year.
The rest of the story is here.
After ten years of the most tepid "recovery" on record, and despite $14 trillion of magic money creation by the central banks of the developed countries (adding in China, it's more like $18 trillion), poor employment data is still greeted with smiles by stock jockeys, because it means the economy is not really recovering and the Fed and other globalist central banks cannot realistically raise interest rates.
That means the punch bowl will be refilled with easy credit and the bubbly stock market can advance to every higher levels of insanity.
Forget that the average P/E of S&P 500 stocks is four standard deviations above the norm, that government pension shortfalls threaten the retirement of millions of aging Americans. Forget that wages have been stagnant for 17 years running. Just buy more stocks and everything will turn out just fine.
It's madness. Nothing, absolutely nothing will change until the day comes when it all changes at once. But that day may still be years away because the central banks and government number crunchers will see to it that the veil is never removed from the eyes of ordinary people who will be taxed and regulated into the ether.
There are no jobs. Party on!
At the Close, 8/31/17:
Dow: 21,948.10, +55.67 (+0.25%)
NASDAQ: 6,428.66, +60.35 (+0.95%)
S&P 500: 2,471.65, +14.06 (+0.57%)
NYSE Composite: 11,875.69, +70.62 (+0.60%)
Thursday, August 31, 2017
Stocks Post Gains As August Winds Down; Nomi Print On Central Bank Collusion
Investors put their money down as the major indices posted small gains heading into the end of the month. The NASDAQ was, in particular, on fire, posting the largest increase on the day, a more then one percent rise.
Non-farm payroll data for August will be released Friday morning in advance of the three-day Labor Day weekend, so that should color the final two days of the week, the last day of August and the first day of September.
As mentioned in prior posts, there's nothing stopping stocks from posting gains until congress comes back in September to begin debates on the debt ceiling, tax reform (that's funny, they always talk about tax reform and the tax code just keeps getting larger), and the federal budget (another fat boy).
To get an idea of just how far afield the world's central bankers have gone in trying to maintain a broken global financial system, Nomi Prins puts perfect spin on the topic, in her latest blog post, A Decade of G7 Central Bank Collusion... and Counting.
At the Close, 8/30/17:
Dow: 21,892.43, +27.06 (+0.12%)
NASDAQ: 6,368.31, +66.42 (+1.05%)
S&P 500: 2,457.59, +11.29 (+0.46%)
NYSE Composite: 11,805.07, +13.19 (+0.11%)
Non-farm payroll data for August will be released Friday morning in advance of the three-day Labor Day weekend, so that should color the final two days of the week, the last day of August and the first day of September.
As mentioned in prior posts, there's nothing stopping stocks from posting gains until congress comes back in September to begin debates on the debt ceiling, tax reform (that's funny, they always talk about tax reform and the tax code just keeps getting larger), and the federal budget (another fat boy).
To get an idea of just how far afield the world's central bankers have gone in trying to maintain a broken global financial system, Nomi Prins puts perfect spin on the topic, in her latest blog post, A Decade of G7 Central Bank Collusion... and Counting.
At the Close, 8/30/17:
Dow: 21,892.43, +27.06 (+0.12%)
NASDAQ: 6,368.31, +66.42 (+1.05%)
S&P 500: 2,457.59, +11.29 (+0.46%)
NYSE Composite: 11,805.07, +13.19 (+0.11%)
Wednesday, August 30, 2017
Stocks, Gold, Silver, Bonds Ominously Reverse Course
As noted in the previous post, stocks were poised - via lower futures pricing - for a major downdraft on Tuesday, but, oddly enough, or, thanks to the good folks at the PPT, that never actually occurred to any great extent.
Instead, stocks did indeed start the session lower, but quickly reversed course and ended mostly on the upside. Additionally, the dollar dropped then popped on the widely-watched dollar index, crushing the gains in gold, silver and bonds, with the 10-year note ending at 2.14% yield.
It's amusing to see such theatrics carried out by those mostly "in charge" of global finance, i.e., the central bankers and government operatives in the Treasury Department, SEC and State. It's going to get more amusing, if that's what one wants to call outright market manipulation via direct, clandestine equity purchases, once congress comes back from vacation following the long Labor Day holiday.
One obvious feature of late has been the decline of the dollar over the past six months. It's been steady and in a bear market since July, but yesterday's rapid descent was apparently too much, too soon.
At the Close, Tuesday, August 28, 2017:
Dow: 21,865.37, +56.97 (+0.26%)
NASDAQ: 6,301.89, +18.87 (+0.30%)
S&P 500: 2,446.30, +2.06 (+0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 11,791.88, -8.34 (-0.07%)
Instead, stocks did indeed start the session lower, but quickly reversed course and ended mostly on the upside. Additionally, the dollar dropped then popped on the widely-watched dollar index, crushing the gains in gold, silver and bonds, with the 10-year note ending at 2.14% yield.
It's amusing to see such theatrics carried out by those mostly "in charge" of global finance, i.e., the central bankers and government operatives in the Treasury Department, SEC and State. It's going to get more amusing, if that's what one wants to call outright market manipulation via direct, clandestine equity purchases, once congress comes back from vacation following the long Labor Day holiday.
One obvious feature of late has been the decline of the dollar over the past six months. It's been steady and in a bear market since July, but yesterday's rapid descent was apparently too much, too soon.
At the Close, Tuesday, August 28, 2017:
Dow: 21,865.37, +56.97 (+0.26%)
NASDAQ: 6,301.89, +18.87 (+0.30%)
S&P 500: 2,446.30, +2.06 (+0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 11,791.88, -8.34 (-0.07%)
Tuesday, August 29, 2017
Stocks Flat, Gold, Silver, Bonds Explode Higher
Editor's Note: Money Daily is eventually going to move to its own server at dtmagazine.com, but issues implementing the blogging platform while integrating ad serving has kept the blog from being fully integrated. Thus, for the time being, until these issues resolved, the blog will appear here.
Stocks were relatively unmoved as the world's central bankers wrapped up their annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming over the weekend.
What did move were precious metals and bonds, both boosted by ambiguous speeches by Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, and ECB president, Mario Draghi.
Both speakers failed to address the bubbling equity markets, and instead opted for a can-kicking, all is well, "stay the course" approach. Markets were effectively unimpressed, though fixed investments saw massive gains.
The benchmark 10-year note was bid, knocking the yield down to 2.16, and to levels not seen since before last year's November elections, at 2.09% just prior to the Tuesday open.
Gold has blown through resistance at the psychologically-important $1300 level, kicking up to $1325 in early Tuesday futures trading. Silver also advanced, blasting through $17, hovering in the $17.60 range at this time.
Stock futures are down massively, setting Tuesday up for a massive downdraft.
With congress coming back to debate the debt ceiling and federal budget and the FOMC meeting in September, the final days of August appear to be presaging the volatile days and weeks ahead.
Hang on to your hats. This looks to be a wild ride.
At the Close, August 28, 2017:
Dow: 21,808.40, -5.27 (-0.02%)
NASDAQ: 6,283.02, +17.37 (+0.28%)
S&P 500: 2,444.24, +1.19 (+0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 11,800.22, -11.81 (-0.10%)
Stocks were relatively unmoved as the world's central bankers wrapped up their annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming over the weekend.
What did move were precious metals and bonds, both boosted by ambiguous speeches by Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, and ECB president, Mario Draghi.
Both speakers failed to address the bubbling equity markets, and instead opted for a can-kicking, all is well, "stay the course" approach. Markets were effectively unimpressed, though fixed investments saw massive gains.
The benchmark 10-year note was bid, knocking the yield down to 2.16, and to levels not seen since before last year's November elections, at 2.09% just prior to the Tuesday open.
Gold has blown through resistance at the psychologically-important $1300 level, kicking up to $1325 in early Tuesday futures trading. Silver also advanced, blasting through $17, hovering in the $17.60 range at this time.
Stock futures are down massively, setting Tuesday up for a massive downdraft.
With congress coming back to debate the debt ceiling and federal budget and the FOMC meeting in September, the final days of August appear to be presaging the volatile days and weeks ahead.
Hang on to your hats. This looks to be a wild ride.
At the Close, August 28, 2017:
Dow: 21,808.40, -5.27 (-0.02%)
NASDAQ: 6,283.02, +17.37 (+0.28%)
S&P 500: 2,444.24, +1.19 (+0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 11,800.22, -11.81 (-0.10%)
Friday, August 25, 2017
Thursday, August 24, 2017
Stocks Uncertain With Congress Due Back In Two Weeks
Continuing the migration to dtmagazine.com/money, today's post is available HERE.
Wednesday, August 23, 2017
Dow Up Most Since April On Bounce
Since Money Daily has been publishing on Google's blogspot platform for far too long, and, being unable to port this blog over to our own servers, we thank the giant Goog for their insouciance in allowing us to find the WordPress alternative.
This post can be seen in full at:
http://dtmagazine.com/money/index.php/2017/08/23/dow-up-most-since-april-on-bounce/
We will be moving this blog to the Downtown Magazine website over the next few weeks, though archives are likely to be retained by Blogger (owned by Google). Thanks to all our loyal readers.
This post can be seen in full at:
http://dtmagazine.com/money/index.php/2017/08/23/dow-up-most-since-april-on-bounce/
We will be moving this blog to the Downtown Magazine website over the next few weeks, though archives are likely to be retained by Blogger (owned by Google). Thanks to all our loyal readers.
Tuesday, August 22, 2017
Stocks Open Week With Sluggish Start
There wasn't anything important enough to move stocks substantially, as the markets opened the final full week of August.
This is probably as good a time as ever to take a few days off.
At the Close, Monday, August 21, 2017:
Dow: 21,703.75, +29.24 (+0.13%)
NASDAQ: 6,213.13, -3.40 (-0.05%)
S&P 500: 2,428.37, +2.82 (+0.12%)
NYSE Composite: 11,719.27, +19.44 (+0.17%)
This is probably as good a time as ever to take a few days off.
At the Close, Monday, August 21, 2017:
Dow: 21,703.75, +29.24 (+0.13%)
NASDAQ: 6,213.13, -3.40 (-0.05%)
S&P 500: 2,428.37, +2.82 (+0.12%)
NYSE Composite: 11,719.27, +19.44 (+0.17%)
Saturday, August 19, 2017
Stocks Close Week Trending Lower; Trouble Brewing
After Thursday's all-around rout, traders entered Friday's session with apprehension and doubt, pondering whether the recovery facade had finally been broken, exposing the wickedly overpriced nature of global equites, and especially US stocks.
After a sluggish start to trading, stocks eventually turned positive midday, but failed to keep an even keel as the major indices fell in unison for the second consecutive day, ending the week on an ominous note.
While Friday's losses were nothing compared to those from the day prior, they were, nevertheless, a continuation of the downdraft since last week's North Korea scare sent stocks well below their prior highs and, in the case of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, below their 50-day moving averages.
In addition to the uniformity of the declines, stocks spent their second straight week on the downside for only the fourth time since the election of Donald Trump as president.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had been the leader in the gains for the year, finished just above its 50-dma, the signs of slowing clearly evident.
With earnings reports from the second quarter winding down, analysts and traders will be focused on economic data, which has been - for years - less than stellar. Also of concern is the Federal Reserve's stance on tightening credit and unwinding their massive balance sheet, at the same time congress and the president will be engaging in budget and debt ceiling wrangling, making for a September to remember.
Still not an absolute trend - stocks are generally down only 2-3% the past two weeks - there will eventually come a time when the long bull run since March, 2009 will come to an end, and it figures not be be pretty. Anyone with short-term views will be taken aback at any sign of decay in the financial system, though, for those old enough and wizened enough to understand past history and general economics, a general pullback will be nothing more than the ordinariness of the business cycle, this one interrupted by the machinations and experimental policies of the global central bank cartel, led the the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), and the People's Bank of China (PBOC), which together have stuffed more than $16 trillion onto their collective balance sheets.
Unwinding this massive spending spree without collateral damage will be a monumental task, even for those empowered to oversee the world's financial order.
Fireworks are coming. Stock up on adult beverages and snacks.
At the Close, Friday, August 18, 2017:
Dow: 21,674.51, -76.22 (-0.35%)
NASDAQ: 6,216.53, -5.39 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 2,425.55, -4.46 (-0.18%)
NYSE Composite: 11,699.83, -12.88 (-0.11%)
For the Week:
Dow: -183.81 (-0.84%)
NASDAQ: -40.03 (-0.64%)
S&P 500: -15.77 (-0.65%)
NYSE Composite: -63.38 (-0.54%)
After a sluggish start to trading, stocks eventually turned positive midday, but failed to keep an even keel as the major indices fell in unison for the second consecutive day, ending the week on an ominous note.
While Friday's losses were nothing compared to those from the day prior, they were, nevertheless, a continuation of the downdraft since last week's North Korea scare sent stocks well below their prior highs and, in the case of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, below their 50-day moving averages.
In addition to the uniformity of the declines, stocks spent their second straight week on the downside for only the fourth time since the election of Donald Trump as president.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had been the leader in the gains for the year, finished just above its 50-dma, the signs of slowing clearly evident.
With earnings reports from the second quarter winding down, analysts and traders will be focused on economic data, which has been - for years - less than stellar. Also of concern is the Federal Reserve's stance on tightening credit and unwinding their massive balance sheet, at the same time congress and the president will be engaging in budget and debt ceiling wrangling, making for a September to remember.
Still not an absolute trend - stocks are generally down only 2-3% the past two weeks - there will eventually come a time when the long bull run since March, 2009 will come to an end, and it figures not be be pretty. Anyone with short-term views will be taken aback at any sign of decay in the financial system, though, for those old enough and wizened enough to understand past history and general economics, a general pullback will be nothing more than the ordinariness of the business cycle, this one interrupted by the machinations and experimental policies of the global central bank cartel, led the the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), and the People's Bank of China (PBOC), which together have stuffed more than $16 trillion onto their collective balance sheets.
Unwinding this massive spending spree without collateral damage will be a monumental task, even for those empowered to oversee the world's financial order.
Fireworks are coming. Stock up on adult beverages and snacks.
At the Close, Friday, August 18, 2017:
Dow: 21,674.51, -76.22 (-0.35%)
NASDAQ: 6,216.53, -5.39 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 2,425.55, -4.46 (-0.18%)
NYSE Composite: 11,699.83, -12.88 (-0.11%)
For the Week:
Dow: -183.81 (-0.84%)
NASDAQ: -40.03 (-0.64%)
S&P 500: -15.77 (-0.65%)
NYSE Composite: -63.38 (-0.54%)
Thursday, August 17, 2017
Stocks Wracked On Poor Industrial Production Data, Led by Lower Auto Sales
When the opening bell rang today on Wall Street, there wasn't realistically any cause for alarm, except the data on Industrial Production, which rose 0.2% on expectations of 0.3%, driven lower on a 3.6% drop in the automotive sector.
Car sales have slowed sharply from the record pace in 2016. Production of motor vehicles and parts has fallen in five months this year, and have dropped five percent in the latest 12 months.
That may have been cause for alarm, though not to the extent to which the major indices took it. Stocks had their worst session overall since mid-March, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ falling below support at their respective 50-day moving averages.
Bond yields were slashed as investors rushed out of equities to the safety of credit. The 10-year note closed the day with a 2.18 handle and the 30-year bond the lowest in a week, at 2.78%.
Oil caught a weak-hand bid, pushing above $47/barrel, but not holding that level. Gold and silver, which had been bid up in prior sessions, held onto gains.
This is the second major loss in the last six session, which, if one is inclined to be seeking trends, could be one to watch. On the other hand, with the Fed having the market's back, continued weakness is considered unlikely.
It has been said that Wall Street is more of a casino than ever before. The past six or seven sessions are proving that the house doesn't always win.
At the Close, Thursday, August 17, 2017
Dow: 21,750.73, -274.14 (-1.24%)
NASDAQ 6,221.91, -123.19 (-1.94%)
S&P 500 2,430.01, -38.10 (-1.54%)
NYSE Composite: 11,712.72, -156.13 (-1.32%)
Car sales have slowed sharply from the record pace in 2016. Production of motor vehicles and parts has fallen in five months this year, and have dropped five percent in the latest 12 months.
That may have been cause for alarm, though not to the extent to which the major indices took it. Stocks had their worst session overall since mid-March, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ falling below support at their respective 50-day moving averages.
Bond yields were slashed as investors rushed out of equities to the safety of credit. The 10-year note closed the day with a 2.18 handle and the 30-year bond the lowest in a week, at 2.78%.
Oil caught a weak-hand bid, pushing above $47/barrel, but not holding that level. Gold and silver, which had been bid up in prior sessions, held onto gains.
This is the second major loss in the last six session, which, if one is inclined to be seeking trends, could be one to watch. On the other hand, with the Fed having the market's back, continued weakness is considered unlikely.
It has been said that Wall Street is more of a casino than ever before. The past six or seven sessions are proving that the house doesn't always win.
At the Close, Thursday, August 17, 2017
Dow: 21,750.73, -274.14 (-1.24%)
NASDAQ 6,221.91, -123.19 (-1.94%)
S&P 500 2,430.01, -38.10 (-1.54%)
NYSE Composite: 11,712.72, -156.13 (-1.32%)
Wednesday, August 16, 2017
How to Make $10,000 in Six Hours Before FOMC Minutes Are Released
It helps to be an insider on Wall Street if you expect to make big money.
Just as a for instance, take the trade in gold today prior to the Fed releasing the FOMC minutes from July at 2:00 pm ET.
At 8:00 am ET, gold was sitting right around $1270 per troy ounce. Six hours later, prior to the release of the FOMC minutes, it was at $1280 or above.
If one was so inclined, one could have placed a futures bid at 8:00 am and sold it at 2:00 pm, for a profit of $10 per troy ounce. Since futures are dealt with in lots of 100s, one would have had to made the order for 100 futures contracts. It would have cost a fraction of the actual value of the gold involved, but, upon selling, the profits would have netted somewhere in the neighborhood of $10,000, less commissions, which, as an insider, would be minimal.
Also, as an insider, one could probably have bought the futures via a margin account, thus putting up even less actual money.
Nice way to make a living, you say?
Well, if the Fed is nothing more than a stealth conduit for the wealthy and well-connected, it would surprise nobody if the contents of the FOMC minutes were leaked or casually mentioned in private conversation.
That's how corrupted markets work, and there's nothing more corrupted than the gold and silver futures markets, except maybe, the US equity markets.
What was discovered - among many views and opinions - in the FOMC minutes was that various members expressed a need to tighten policy, in other words, raise rates and/or roll off some of the excessive assets held by the Federal Reserve.
Roughly the same trade could have been made in various commodities, especially by being on the short side in WTI crude oil futures, or stocks, or by going long bonds. The Dow was up 87 points early in the day before reversing - well before the FOMC minutes release - finally closing just short of 26 points to the upside.
It is a nice way to make a living, especially when one has friends in high places.
At the Close, Wednesday, August 16, 2017:
Dow: 22,024.87, +25.88 (+0.12%)
NASDAQ 6,345.11, +12.10 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 2,468.11, +3.50 (+0.14%)
NYSE Composite: 11,865.33, +21.85 (+0.18%)
Just as a for instance, take the trade in gold today prior to the Fed releasing the FOMC minutes from July at 2:00 pm ET.
At 8:00 am ET, gold was sitting right around $1270 per troy ounce. Six hours later, prior to the release of the FOMC minutes, it was at $1280 or above.
If one was so inclined, one could have placed a futures bid at 8:00 am and sold it at 2:00 pm, for a profit of $10 per troy ounce. Since futures are dealt with in lots of 100s, one would have had to made the order for 100 futures contracts. It would have cost a fraction of the actual value of the gold involved, but, upon selling, the profits would have netted somewhere in the neighborhood of $10,000, less commissions, which, as an insider, would be minimal.
Also, as an insider, one could probably have bought the futures via a margin account, thus putting up even less actual money.
Nice way to make a living, you say?
Well, if the Fed is nothing more than a stealth conduit for the wealthy and well-connected, it would surprise nobody if the contents of the FOMC minutes were leaked or casually mentioned in private conversation.
That's how corrupted markets work, and there's nothing more corrupted than the gold and silver futures markets, except maybe, the US equity markets.
What was discovered - among many views and opinions - in the FOMC minutes was that various members expressed a need to tighten policy, in other words, raise rates and/or roll off some of the excessive assets held by the Federal Reserve.
Roughly the same trade could have been made in various commodities, especially by being on the short side in WTI crude oil futures, or stocks, or by going long bonds. The Dow was up 87 points early in the day before reversing - well before the FOMC minutes release - finally closing just short of 26 points to the upside.
It is a nice way to make a living, especially when one has friends in high places.
At the Close, Wednesday, August 16, 2017:
Dow: 22,024.87, +25.88 (+0.12%)
NASDAQ 6,345.11, +12.10 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 2,468.11, +3.50 (+0.14%)
NYSE Composite: 11,865.33, +21.85 (+0.18%)
Tuesday, August 15, 2017
Back to the Grind for Wall Street
All the blustering over nuclear war over, now replaced with frantic screaming about neo-Nazi and White Supremacy groups (what kind of media is this?) after demonstrations and bloodshed in Charlottesville over the weekend, Wall Street didn't seem to interested in anything in a typical mid-summer session.
Stocks kind of straddled the unchanged line, and the usual unusual of indices pointing in opposite directions was the result of a lackluster day of trading paper.
The only significant news was from retail, if it can be believed, as July retail sales showed a 0.6% improvement, mostly due to incentives on new car sales and leases.
It wasn't enough to send buyers into a panic of shopping for downtrodden mall rentiers, since everybody already knows that the half-life of most retailers is very short, due to the general slack demand in the economy and the Amazon effect of hovering up all latent shoppers to the internet.
So, since Americans killing other Americans is not apparently as sexy as Americans killing North Koreans, or vice-versa, not much on the rally front today.
At the Close, Tuesday, August 15, 2017:
Dow: 21,998.99, +5.28 (0.02%)
NASDAQ: 6,333.01, -7.22 (-0.11%)
S&P 500: 2,464.61, -1.23 (-0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 11,843.48, -12.58 (-0.11%)
Stocks kind of straddled the unchanged line, and the usual unusual of indices pointing in opposite directions was the result of a lackluster day of trading paper.
The only significant news was from retail, if it can be believed, as July retail sales showed a 0.6% improvement, mostly due to incentives on new car sales and leases.
It wasn't enough to send buyers into a panic of shopping for downtrodden mall rentiers, since everybody already knows that the half-life of most retailers is very short, due to the general slack demand in the economy and the Amazon effect of hovering up all latent shoppers to the internet.
So, since Americans killing other Americans is not apparently as sexy as Americans killing North Koreans, or vice-versa, not much on the rally front today.
At the Close, Tuesday, August 15, 2017:
Dow: 21,998.99, +5.28 (0.02%)
NASDAQ: 6,333.01, -7.22 (-0.11%)
S&P 500: 2,464.61, -1.23 (-0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 11,843.48, -12.58 (-0.11%)
War Talk Fading, Markets Rallying
As the sun breaks above the horizon in the Eastern US, it's becoming readily apparent that the recent war of words and threats between North Korea's Kim Jong-un and US President Trump were nothing more than well-orchestrated (either intended by the principals or promoted by the deep state) banter designed to allow release of a pressure point in the markets.
In other words, stocks were completely overpriced and the rally exhausted, so a selling excuse was necessary.
Nothing like the threat of a thermo-nuclear holocaust to clear the books.
With the main protagonists backing off their bellicose behavior, stocks rallied sharply on Monday and are prepared for another moon shot Tuesday.
Just in case one is unconvinced of the machinations of the deep state and international financiers, be reminded that markets worldwide - and not just equities - have been under the various thumbs of central bankers since the GFC of 2008-09.
As has been pointed out here more than a few times, nothing is as it seems. While the appearance of a roaring stock market is a great image to project, in all likelihood, that's all it is, an image. Thus, just about everything related to the mirage of a booming economy must be held in contempt as false.
Piling falsehood upon falsehood is not a great practice in the long run. It produces a massive complex of overlapping lies, or, as Sir Walter Scott wrote in the 19th century poem, Marmion :
Nowhere in finance nor politics is more than a shred of honesty to be observed or heard.
The choices are simple: play along, play outside, or be played, but beware that there are no moral underpinnings in money or politics. That's been true for longer than anyone can remember.
Sadly, it remains the same today.
At the Close, 8/14/17:
Dow: 21,993.71, +135.39 (0.62%)
NASDAQ: 6,340.23, +83.68 (1.34%)
S&P 500: 2,465.84 +24.52 (1.00%)
NYSE Composite: 11,856.06, +92.85 (0.79%)
In other words, stocks were completely overpriced and the rally exhausted, so a selling excuse was necessary.
Nothing like the threat of a thermo-nuclear holocaust to clear the books.
With the main protagonists backing off their bellicose behavior, stocks rallied sharply on Monday and are prepared for another moon shot Tuesday.
Just in case one is unconvinced of the machinations of the deep state and international financiers, be reminded that markets worldwide - and not just equities - have been under the various thumbs of central bankers since the GFC of 2008-09.
As has been pointed out here more than a few times, nothing is as it seems. While the appearance of a roaring stock market is a great image to project, in all likelihood, that's all it is, an image. Thus, just about everything related to the mirage of a booming economy must be held in contempt as false.
Piling falsehood upon falsehood is not a great practice in the long run. It produces a massive complex of overlapping lies, or, as Sir Walter Scott wrote in the 19th century poem, Marmion :
Oh, what a tangled web we weave...when first we practice to deceive.There is truth in life and in nature.
Nowhere in finance nor politics is more than a shred of honesty to be observed or heard.
The choices are simple: play along, play outside, or be played, but beware that there are no moral underpinnings in money or politics. That's been true for longer than anyone can remember.
Sadly, it remains the same today.
At the Close, 8/14/17:
Dow: 21,993.71, +135.39 (0.62%)
NASDAQ: 6,340.23, +83.68 (1.34%)
S&P 500: 2,465.84 +24.52 (1.00%)
NYSE Composite: 11,856.06, +92.85 (0.79%)
Saturday, August 12, 2017
Much Ado About Nothing As War Rhetoric Fades
Could anything less have been expected?
Since we have fake news, fake boobs, fake money, fake legislators making fake laws, and fake outrage, why not have a fake war?
North Korea's Kim Jong-un recent bombast directed at the United States was remarkable only in the way world markets reacted to it. The tin-horn, third world dictator has been test-firing missiles and boasting about bringing Western civilization to its knees for months, but only this week did his war-mongering behavior result in stock market losses, which, in the grand scheme of things, were minor.
While vacationing President Donald Trump made headlines with his responses, the markets did an abrupt about-face midweek, ending a streak of ten straight positive closes on the Dow Tuesday with a small skid to the red, followed Wednesday by a more broad decline and Thursday with a cascading sell-off, which sent the major indices down the most in three months or longer.
The Dow didn't suffer much damage, though it was the worst week in the past 12, but the narrow, 30-stock Dow Industrials are still up almost 10% on the year. Where the impact was greatest was on the broader measures, specifically, the NYSE Composite, which fell nearly two percent. By comparison, the Dow was off just more than one percent for the week.
With the finger-pointing and threatening behavior by various world leaders dropping off to background noise as the weekend approached, stocks in the US rebounded slightly, as expected, since few astute geo-political minds actually believe we're anywhere closer to war with North Korea than we have been for the past sixty years.
Thus, it is likely to be back to business as usual for the markets on Monday, though one side effect during the recent tantrum has been the rise of gold and silver as safety bets and the fall of the price of oil, as the global glut continues. Gold reached its highest point since June, closing out the week about ten dollars below $1300. Silver managed to stay above $17 for the first time in two months, but crude oil ended below $49 per barrel, a price seen by many as still too high considering the global oversupply.
At the Close, 8/11/17:
Dow: 21,858.32, +14.31 (0.07%)
NASDAQ: 6,256.56, +39.68 (0.64%)
S&P 500: 2,441.32, +3.11 (0.13%)
NYSE Composite: 11,763.21, -8.39 (-0.07%)
For the Week:
Dow: -234.49 (-1.06%)
NASDAQ: -95.01 (-1.50%)
S&P 500: -35.51 (-1.43%)
NYSE Composite: -221.68 (-1.85%)
Since we have fake news, fake boobs, fake money, fake legislators making fake laws, and fake outrage, why not have a fake war?
North Korea's Kim Jong-un recent bombast directed at the United States was remarkable only in the way world markets reacted to it. The tin-horn, third world dictator has been test-firing missiles and boasting about bringing Western civilization to its knees for months, but only this week did his war-mongering behavior result in stock market losses, which, in the grand scheme of things, were minor.
While vacationing President Donald Trump made headlines with his responses, the markets did an abrupt about-face midweek, ending a streak of ten straight positive closes on the Dow Tuesday with a small skid to the red, followed Wednesday by a more broad decline and Thursday with a cascading sell-off, which sent the major indices down the most in three months or longer.
The Dow didn't suffer much damage, though it was the worst week in the past 12, but the narrow, 30-stock Dow Industrials are still up almost 10% on the year. Where the impact was greatest was on the broader measures, specifically, the NYSE Composite, which fell nearly two percent. By comparison, the Dow was off just more than one percent for the week.
With the finger-pointing and threatening behavior by various world leaders dropping off to background noise as the weekend approached, stocks in the US rebounded slightly, as expected, since few astute geo-political minds actually believe we're anywhere closer to war with North Korea than we have been for the past sixty years.
Thus, it is likely to be back to business as usual for the markets on Monday, though one side effect during the recent tantrum has been the rise of gold and silver as safety bets and the fall of the price of oil, as the global glut continues. Gold reached its highest point since June, closing out the week about ten dollars below $1300. Silver managed to stay above $17 for the first time in two months, but crude oil ended below $49 per barrel, a price seen by many as still too high considering the global oversupply.
At the Close, 8/11/17:
Dow: 21,858.32, +14.31 (0.07%)
NASDAQ: 6,256.56, +39.68 (0.64%)
S&P 500: 2,441.32, +3.11 (0.13%)
NYSE Composite: 11,763.21, -8.39 (-0.07%)
For the Week:
Dow: -234.49 (-1.06%)
NASDAQ: -95.01 (-1.50%)
S&P 500: -35.51 (-1.43%)
NYSE Composite: -221.68 (-1.85%)
Friday, August 11, 2017
Stocks Extend Slide Amid Noth Korea, US Bombast, But It's Not Serious
Just in case there needs to be an excuse to sell overpriced stocks, there's always North Korea and the nit-wit leader Kim Jong-un.
A bone fide nutjob, the second child of Kim Jong-il, 33-year-old Jong-un has, in his brief stint as self-appointed supreme leader of North Korea, managed to elevate himself and his gulag of a nation onto the global stage and capture the spotlight with various treats, missile launches, nuclear ambitions and plenty of help from international media seeking sensationalism with which to scare an unsuspecting public.
With bombastic President Trump entering the fray earlier this year, Jong-un has found the perfect Dean Martin straight man for his Jerry Lewis-like antics. A master of the tweet-storm, Trump takes Jong-un seriously, which helps amp up the rhetoric with bold statements and unveiled threats in response to Jong-un's madness. The two could make a fortune on the stages of Las Vegas, if only the State Department would allow Jong-un entry to the US mainland.
What the international war of words has to do with stocks is roughly nothing. Until actual bombs start raining down, the prattling between the leaders of the United States and North Korea is more about television and radio ratings than the prices of Apple, Alphabet, or Alcoa.
However, as stated at the top of this missive, Wall Street specialists are taking the opportunity to dump out of high-flying stocks with near-reckless abandon, sending the major indices to their biggest losses in six months on Thursday, extending the minor losses from Wednesday into something worth noticing.
The selling has also not been limited to just US stocks. As the talk has become more bellicose, the drops on major foreign markets in Europe, Asia, and the Americas have been extended. As of Friday morning in the US, most of Asia and Europe are suffering losses of between one and two percent, though the Nikkei 225 is bucking the trend, down only slightly, nearly flat on the day.
That brings up an interesting topic: if Japan's major market isn't taking this "international nuclear stand-off" with the requisite seriousness, should anybody else?
Probably not, but, this is as good a time as any to take profits. The congress and the president are pretty much on vacation until after Labor Day, but, when they get back to pretending they're doing something constructive, they'll be tackling the ticklish issues of the debt ceiling (along with the attendant threats of shutting down the government - yeah!) and coming up with something resembling a federal budget.
On the latter, hashing out a budget between the Trump administration and the overwhelmingly free-spending congress ought to be some serious comedy. Trump would love to balance the federal budget, but congress intends to drown the nation in even more debt. In case anybody is still keeping score, the federal debt burden stands at close to $20 billion, but, according to the US Debt Clock, it's been stuck there for a few months due to extraordinary measures taken by Treasury and some unforeseen savings on the administration's end.
The congress is not happy about this and will make sure to pile up more debt in the months ahead, making the budget process the go-to, must see entertainment venue for the fall TV season.
So, unless the bottom falls out of the market on Friday, August 11, this is nothing more than profit-taking by people who actually know what they're doing and don't respond in knee-jerk fashion to the pronouncements of madmen and the tweets of presidents.
Meantime, the recent news frame has been good for bonds, gold and silver, all of which have had three straight sessions of unimpeded gains. Gold is approaching $1300 an ounce, the 10-year note is yielding 2.21% and silver broke through $17 per ounce on Thursday. What is not working, still, is oil, which appears unable to pierce the $50/barrel level, which shouldn't be an issue. There remains a massive glut, oversupply, slack demand due to slow economic growth globally and no pricing power anywhere from Riyadh to Russia. Oil should be less than $40 per barrel, though resistance is great, led by the global energy cartel with the help from central bankers who simply cannot stomach any more deflation in anything.
With that, stocks in the US are setting up for another scary open to the downside, but it's probably nothing more than a bump in the road. The real action is still a month away, and even then, the Fed has Wall Street's back. Unless something really serious occurs, there's likely not to be any major turn in the stock markets, though the same cannot be assumed about commodities, bonds, precious metals, or even crypto-currencies like Bitcoin.
At the Close, 8/10/17:
Dow: 21,844.01, -204.69 (-0.93%)
NASDAQ: 6,216.87, -135.46 (-2.13%)
S&P 500: 2,438.21, -35.81 (-1.45%)
NYSE Composite: 11,771.60, -157.87 (-1.32%)
A bone fide nutjob, the second child of Kim Jong-il, 33-year-old Jong-un has, in his brief stint as self-appointed supreme leader of North Korea, managed to elevate himself and his gulag of a nation onto the global stage and capture the spotlight with various treats, missile launches, nuclear ambitions and plenty of help from international media seeking sensationalism with which to scare an unsuspecting public.
With bombastic President Trump entering the fray earlier this year, Jong-un has found the perfect Dean Martin straight man for his Jerry Lewis-like antics. A master of the tweet-storm, Trump takes Jong-un seriously, which helps amp up the rhetoric with bold statements and unveiled threats in response to Jong-un's madness. The two could make a fortune on the stages of Las Vegas, if only the State Department would allow Jong-un entry to the US mainland.
What the international war of words has to do with stocks is roughly nothing. Until actual bombs start raining down, the prattling between the leaders of the United States and North Korea is more about television and radio ratings than the prices of Apple, Alphabet, or Alcoa.
However, as stated at the top of this missive, Wall Street specialists are taking the opportunity to dump out of high-flying stocks with near-reckless abandon, sending the major indices to their biggest losses in six months on Thursday, extending the minor losses from Wednesday into something worth noticing.
The selling has also not been limited to just US stocks. As the talk has become more bellicose, the drops on major foreign markets in Europe, Asia, and the Americas have been extended. As of Friday morning in the US, most of Asia and Europe are suffering losses of between one and two percent, though the Nikkei 225 is bucking the trend, down only slightly, nearly flat on the day.
That brings up an interesting topic: if Japan's major market isn't taking this "international nuclear stand-off" with the requisite seriousness, should anybody else?
Probably not, but, this is as good a time as any to take profits. The congress and the president are pretty much on vacation until after Labor Day, but, when they get back to pretending they're doing something constructive, they'll be tackling the ticklish issues of the debt ceiling (along with the attendant threats of shutting down the government - yeah!) and coming up with something resembling a federal budget.
On the latter, hashing out a budget between the Trump administration and the overwhelmingly free-spending congress ought to be some serious comedy. Trump would love to balance the federal budget, but congress intends to drown the nation in even more debt. In case anybody is still keeping score, the federal debt burden stands at close to $20 billion, but, according to the US Debt Clock, it's been stuck there for a few months due to extraordinary measures taken by Treasury and some unforeseen savings on the administration's end.
The congress is not happy about this and will make sure to pile up more debt in the months ahead, making the budget process the go-to, must see entertainment venue for the fall TV season.
So, unless the bottom falls out of the market on Friday, August 11, this is nothing more than profit-taking by people who actually know what they're doing and don't respond in knee-jerk fashion to the pronouncements of madmen and the tweets of presidents.
Meantime, the recent news frame has been good for bonds, gold and silver, all of which have had three straight sessions of unimpeded gains. Gold is approaching $1300 an ounce, the 10-year note is yielding 2.21% and silver broke through $17 per ounce on Thursday. What is not working, still, is oil, which appears unable to pierce the $50/barrel level, which shouldn't be an issue. There remains a massive glut, oversupply, slack demand due to slow economic growth globally and no pricing power anywhere from Riyadh to Russia. Oil should be less than $40 per barrel, though resistance is great, led by the global energy cartel with the help from central bankers who simply cannot stomach any more deflation in anything.
With that, stocks in the US are setting up for another scary open to the downside, but it's probably nothing more than a bump in the road. The real action is still a month away, and even then, the Fed has Wall Street's back. Unless something really serious occurs, there's likely not to be any major turn in the stock markets, though the same cannot be assumed about commodities, bonds, precious metals, or even crypto-currencies like Bitcoin.
At the Close, 8/10/17:
Dow: 21,844.01, -204.69 (-0.93%)
NASDAQ: 6,216.87, -135.46 (-2.13%)
S&P 500: 2,438.21, -35.81 (-1.45%)
NYSE Composite: 11,771.60, -157.87 (-1.32%)
Wednesday, August 9, 2017
Stocks in Limited Slide on North Korea Threats, Trump's "Fire and Fury" Response
This is more kabuki theatre.
Trump cannot declare war on North Korea. According to the constitution (remember that?) only congress can declare war.
So forget it. The entire North Korea scenario is probably more deep state phoniness. The markets didn't seem to notice much, if at all.
Boorish, is what it all is.
At the Close, 8/9/17:
Dow: 22,048.70, -36.64 (-0.17%)
NASDAQ: 6,352.33, -18.13 (-0.28%)
S&P 500: 2,474.02, -0.90 (-0.04%)
NYSE Composite: 11,929.46, -20.50 (-0.17%)
Trump cannot declare war on North Korea. According to the constitution (remember that?) only congress can declare war.
So forget it. The entire North Korea scenario is probably more deep state phoniness. The markets didn't seem to notice much, if at all.
Boorish, is what it all is.
At the Close, 8/9/17:
Dow: 22,048.70, -36.64 (-0.17%)
NASDAQ: 6,352.33, -18.13 (-0.28%)
S&P 500: 2,474.02, -0.90 (-0.04%)
NYSE Composite: 11,929.46, -20.50 (-0.17%)
10-Day Winning Streak on the Dow Industrials Ends With Whimper
With closing highs in the past ten straight sessions, the Dow Jones Industrial Average could well be expected to take a bit of a hit at some point, that point coming on Tuesday, though the hit was not substantial, as the Dow shed just 33 points.
Putting the past ten sessions in perspective, the Dow's winning streak began at just above 21,500, and, before retreating into the close, topped out at nearly 22,200, overall, a gain of almost 700 points, or 3.25%. Annualizing the results, if the Dow were to move in the same direction for a full year, the gain would be more than 33,000 points, resulting in a gain of more than 150%.
With those kinds of numbers nobody in their right mind with more than $40,000 of investible income would bother to work.
These mental gymnastics are brought to you by the Federal Reserve Bank, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank. All of these central banks other than the US Fed, have been and will continue to be openly investing in US equities and those in other developed nations.
There's a certain folly in expecting the central banks to continue supplying extraordinary gains in stocks, so distorted already are the equity - and many other - markets.
At the Close, 8/8/17:
Dow: 22,085.34, -33.08 (-0.15%)
NASDAQ: 6,370.46, -13.31 (-0.21%)
S&P 500: 2,474.92, -5.99 (-0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 11,949.98, -37.79 (-0.32%)
Putting the past ten sessions in perspective, the Dow's winning streak began at just above 21,500, and, before retreating into the close, topped out at nearly 22,200, overall, a gain of almost 700 points, or 3.25%. Annualizing the results, if the Dow were to move in the same direction for a full year, the gain would be more than 33,000 points, resulting in a gain of more than 150%.
With those kinds of numbers nobody in their right mind with more than $40,000 of investible income would bother to work.
These mental gymnastics are brought to you by the Federal Reserve Bank, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank. All of these central banks other than the US Fed, have been and will continue to be openly investing in US equities and those in other developed nations.
There's a certain folly in expecting the central banks to continue supplying extraordinary gains in stocks, so distorted already are the equity - and many other - markets.
At the Close, 8/8/17:
Dow: 22,085.34, -33.08 (-0.15%)
NASDAQ: 6,370.46, -13.31 (-0.21%)
S&P 500: 2,474.92, -5.99 (-0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 11,949.98, -37.79 (-0.32%)
Tuesday, August 8, 2017
Another Day, Another Dow Record Close
Borrowing a line from "Seinfeld," serenity now, insanity later.
At the Close, 8/7/17:
Dow: 22,118.42, +25.61 (0.12%)
NASDAQ: 6,383.77, +32.21 (0.51%)
S&P 500: 2,480.91, +4.08 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 11,987.77, +2.89 (0.02%)
At the Close, 8/7/17:
Dow: 22,118.42, +25.61 (0.12%)
NASDAQ: 6,383.77, +32.21 (0.51%)
S&P 500: 2,480.91, +4.08 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 11,987.77, +2.89 (0.02%)
Monday, August 7, 2017
Dow Continues to Careen Higher as Other Indices Lag
Maybe the markets are broken by HFTs, computer algorithms, program trading, bid stuffing, and an assortment of hype, funny fiat money, low interest rates and the hunt for yield.
Maybe not, but, the week's look at the major indices indicates that only the Dow Jones Industrials posted solid gains (rising for the 9th straight session to another all-time high) while the other three major averages were essentially running in place, the NASDAQ actually posting a loss.
It's not unusual for one index to lead the market, but, since the 2008, stocks have made outsize gains and the darlings on the Dow have exceeded all expectations. Despite carrying some of the most obscenely-high P/E ratios in market history, traders continue to bang away at the McDonalds, Apples and Intels of the world, as though there is nothing other to buy.
These are the kinds of trading decisions which lead to apathy and eventual market convulsions. For now, however, there's nothing but the Dow Jones Industrial Average to prompt the cheerleading from everyone from the President of the United States on down.
Having a runaway stock market may be a sign of a strong economy, but, in this case, since it is so isolated, it should be viewed as a sign of imbalance.
At the Close, 8/4/17:
Dow: 22,092.81, +66.71 (0.30%)
NASDAQ 6,351.56, +11.22 (0.18%)
S&P 500 2,476.83, +4.67 (0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 11,984.89, +28.37 (0.24%)
For the Week:
Dow: +262.50 (1.20%)
NASDAQ: -23.11 (-0.36%)
S&P 500: +4.73 (0.19%)
NYSE Composite: +30.20 (0.25%)
Maybe not, but, the week's look at the major indices indicates that only the Dow Jones Industrials posted solid gains (rising for the 9th straight session to another all-time high) while the other three major averages were essentially running in place, the NASDAQ actually posting a loss.
It's not unusual for one index to lead the market, but, since the 2008, stocks have made outsize gains and the darlings on the Dow have exceeded all expectations. Despite carrying some of the most obscenely-high P/E ratios in market history, traders continue to bang away at the McDonalds, Apples and Intels of the world, as though there is nothing other to buy.
These are the kinds of trading decisions which lead to apathy and eventual market convulsions. For now, however, there's nothing but the Dow Jones Industrial Average to prompt the cheerleading from everyone from the President of the United States on down.
Having a runaway stock market may be a sign of a strong economy, but, in this case, since it is so isolated, it should be viewed as a sign of imbalance.
At the Close, 8/4/17:
Dow: 22,092.81, +66.71 (0.30%)
NASDAQ 6,351.56, +11.22 (0.18%)
S&P 500 2,476.83, +4.67 (0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 11,984.89, +28.37 (0.24%)
For the Week:
Dow: +262.50 (1.20%)
NASDAQ: -23.11 (-0.36%)
S&P 500: +4.73 (0.19%)
NYSE Composite: +30.20 (0.25%)
Friday, August 4, 2017
Indices Split Again, Dow Only Gainer; NFP Shows 209,000 July Jobs
The rally fizzled badly on Thursday, but the market may get a boost from strong jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which showed non-farm payrolls increasing by 209,000 in the month of July.
All the major index futures are showing plus signs prior to the opening bell on Wall Street. The official unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, matching the 16-year low set back in May.
With all this good news on the employment front, there seems to be nothing capable of holding back another rally on Wall Street to close out the week.
If all of this seems to be a trifle boring, it's because the Dow has now posted gains in each of the last eight sessions, rising from 21,500 to over 22,000 over that short span.
The other indices don't appear to share the enthusiasm for the Dow. The NASDAQ in particular has been down five of the last six sessions.
Perhaps this is just money moving from speculative tech stocks into solid dividend-paying stocks on the Dow, although Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel (INTC) are all components of the 30 Dow Jones Industrials.
At the Close, 8/3/17:
Dow: 22,026.10, +9.86 (0.04%)
NASDAQ: 6,340.34, -22.30 (-0.35%)
S&P 500: 2,472.16, -5.41 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 11,956.52, -22.85 (-0.19%)
All the major index futures are showing plus signs prior to the opening bell on Wall Street. The official unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, matching the 16-year low set back in May.
With all this good news on the employment front, there seems to be nothing capable of holding back another rally on Wall Street to close out the week.
If all of this seems to be a trifle boring, it's because the Dow has now posted gains in each of the last eight sessions, rising from 21,500 to over 22,000 over that short span.
The other indices don't appear to share the enthusiasm for the Dow. The NASDAQ in particular has been down five of the last six sessions.
Perhaps this is just money moving from speculative tech stocks into solid dividend-paying stocks on the Dow, although Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel (INTC) are all components of the 30 Dow Jones Industrials.
At the Close, 8/3/17:
Dow: 22,026.10, +9.86 (0.04%)
NASDAQ: 6,340.34, -22.30 (-0.35%)
S&P 500: 2,472.16, -5.41 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 11,956.52, -22.85 (-0.19%)
Thursday, August 3, 2017
Dow Cracks 22,000
Putting the recent rise of the Dow Jones Industrial Average into perspective, on March 9, 2009, the index closed at 6,547.05, generally considered the bottom of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). That's a gain of 236%, or, an average of nearly 30% per year in just over eight years. At that rate, compounded, $100,000 would have turned into over $800,000.
That's in an economy which hasn't had growth of more than 2.6% in any year since 2008.
That is not just absurd on the face, it's nearly impossible... unless the markets had help. Thank the Fed.
At the Close, 8/2/17:
Dow: 22,016.24, +52.32 (0.24%)
NASDAQ: 6,362.65, -0.29 (0.00%)
S&P 500: 2,477.57, +1.22 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 11,979.37, -20.65 (-0.17%)
That's in an economy which hasn't had growth of more than 2.6% in any year since 2008.
That is not just absurd on the face, it's nearly impossible... unless the markets had help. Thank the Fed.
At the Close, 8/2/17:
Dow: 22,016.24, +52.32 (0.24%)
NASDAQ: 6,362.65, -0.29 (0.00%)
S&P 500: 2,477.57, +1.22 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 11,979.37, -20.65 (-0.17%)
Wednesday, August 2, 2017
Dow Set To Rise Over 22,000; ADP Report Shows 178,000 July Jobs
For a change, all of the major indices moved in the same direction on the day. While the Dow set a new closing all-time high, it fell short of the 22,000 milestone, though the NYSE Composite squeaked by the 12,000 mark by a mere 0.02 points.
With earnings news continuing to come out in fairly rosy fashion, the latest from Apple (AAPL), reporting better-than-expected iPhone sales, revenue and earnings per share.
As August rolls along, there appear to be few impediments to further gains in stocks. Earnings reports will begin to slow to a trickle, but there is no FOMC meeting this month, and congress is likely to take at least two weeks off after wasting the first two weeks of the month posturing and posing over health care and/or tax reform.
It's unlikely that congress will accomplish anything of import, as their record of accomplishments since Donald Trump became president is shallow and thin.
Of some significance is Friday's release of July non-farm payroll numbers. Wednesday morning, ADP released their proprietary payroll data for the month, showing 178,000 new private sector jobs created in July. Expectations were for 185,000, after June disappointed with just 158,000 jobs created.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes its data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 am ET.
Whether the jobs data is good or bad may be immaterial, as the market has a tendency to take either without much pause. Just about everybody knows the economy is stuck in low gear, with the Fed and other central banks' backing and active in the markets.
22,000 on the Dow is a no-brainer. Unless war is launched against North Korea or some other great geo-political development occurs, nothing significant is likely to happen until congress reconvenes in September and attempts to craft a budget and hurdle the debt ceiling.
If there's ever been a time to break out the "all clear" foghorn, this could be it.
Still, it's advisable to keep close stops on positions because surprises routinely occur when complacency is high.
At the Close, 8/1/17:
Dow: 21,963.92, +72.80 (0.33%)
NASDAQ: 6,362.94, +14.81 (0.23%)
S&P 500: 2,476.35, +6.05 (0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 12,000.02, +32.35 (0.27%)
With earnings news continuing to come out in fairly rosy fashion, the latest from Apple (AAPL), reporting better-than-expected iPhone sales, revenue and earnings per share.
As August rolls along, there appear to be few impediments to further gains in stocks. Earnings reports will begin to slow to a trickle, but there is no FOMC meeting this month, and congress is likely to take at least two weeks off after wasting the first two weeks of the month posturing and posing over health care and/or tax reform.
It's unlikely that congress will accomplish anything of import, as their record of accomplishments since Donald Trump became president is shallow and thin.
Of some significance is Friday's release of July non-farm payroll numbers. Wednesday morning, ADP released their proprietary payroll data for the month, showing 178,000 new private sector jobs created in July. Expectations were for 185,000, after June disappointed with just 158,000 jobs created.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes its data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 am ET.
Whether the jobs data is good or bad may be immaterial, as the market has a tendency to take either without much pause. Just about everybody knows the economy is stuck in low gear, with the Fed and other central banks' backing and active in the markets.
22,000 on the Dow is a no-brainer. Unless war is launched against North Korea or some other great geo-political development occurs, nothing significant is likely to happen until congress reconvenes in September and attempts to craft a budget and hurdle the debt ceiling.
If there's ever been a time to break out the "all clear" foghorn, this could be it.
Still, it's advisable to keep close stops on positions because surprises routinely occur when complacency is high.
At the Close, 8/1/17:
Dow: 21,963.92, +72.80 (0.33%)
NASDAQ: 6,362.94, +14.81 (0.23%)
S&P 500: 2,476.35, +6.05 (0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 12,000.02, +32.35 (0.27%)
Tuesday, August 1, 2017
Preparing for the Moonshot... Rammstein's Amerika
Stocks sent the last day of July and the first day of the week in typical manipulated fashion, with the indices split, the Dow and Composite on the upside and the NASDAQ and S&P suffering small losses.
As August opens for trading on Tuesday, what's expected is nothing less than a fireworks show, a moonshot, with futures pointing to an explosive opening. Once the insiders have their gains off the open, it's open season for stock speculation. Without a care in the world concerning geo-political events or massive, unfunded liabilities and fiat money debt, Wall Street is sure to ramp the Dow over the 22,000 mark on Tuesday and the NYSE Composite over 12,000.
Happy, happy, joy, joy.
At the Close, 7/31/17:
Dow: 21,891.12, +60.81 (0.28%)
NASDAQ: 6,348.12, -26.55 (-0.42%)
S&P 500: 2,470.30, -1.80 (-0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 11,967.67, +12.98 (0.11%)
Here's Rammstein:
As August opens for trading on Tuesday, what's expected is nothing less than a fireworks show, a moonshot, with futures pointing to an explosive opening. Once the insiders have their gains off the open, it's open season for stock speculation. Without a care in the world concerning geo-political events or massive, unfunded liabilities and fiat money debt, Wall Street is sure to ramp the Dow over the 22,000 mark on Tuesday and the NYSE Composite over 12,000.
Happy, happy, joy, joy.
At the Close, 7/31/17:
Dow: 21,891.12, +60.81 (0.28%)
NASDAQ: 6,348.12, -26.55 (-0.42%)
S&P 500: 2,470.30, -1.80 (-0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 11,967.67, +12.98 (0.11%)
Here's Rammstein:
Saturday, July 29, 2017
More of the Same: Dow up, S&P, Comp., NASDAQ Down
The week came to an end with the usual split markets, a recurring motif of the current malaise in high finance.
Glancing at the figures below, we see that the Dow reached another new all-time closing high, while the weekly figures show the Dow putting on a good show with the other major indices pretty close to flat-lining.
In that this is not readily apparent as some kind of bias in the stock selection process, it is worth noting that market breadth has been breathtakingly narrow, with only a handful of NASDAQ stocks (particularly, the FAANGs) accountable for the bulk of recent advances.
Throwing the high tech stocks out of the mix would yield some rather mundane results in the NAZ, but the Dow, on the other hand, gets higher marks for its eclectic mix of dividend payers, stocks in favor throughout the low-interest rate environment of the past 17 years. It's no wonder that the Dow has exceeded all expectations when it comes to valuation, especially now that the "new normal" consists of stock buybacks and higher P/E ratios than in the latter decades of the 20th century.
Cold water should not be thrown upon the success of stock pickers and other erstwhile enthusiasts of paper promises and financial propaganda. Equity shares and fiat money are the currency of choice. Better to go with the flow than try to staunch the rising tide.
At the Close: 7/28/17:
Dow: 21,830.31, +33.76 (0.15%)
NASDAQ: 6,374.68, -7.51 (-0.12%)
S&P 500: 2,472.10, -3.32 (-0.13%)
NYSE Composite: 11,954.69, -8.54 (-0.07%)
For the Week:
Dow: +250.24 (1.61%)
NASDAQ: -13.08 (-0.20)
S&P 500: -0.44 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite: +30.09 (0.25%)
Glancing at the figures below, we see that the Dow reached another new all-time closing high, while the weekly figures show the Dow putting on a good show with the other major indices pretty close to flat-lining.
In that this is not readily apparent as some kind of bias in the stock selection process, it is worth noting that market breadth has been breathtakingly narrow, with only a handful of NASDAQ stocks (particularly, the FAANGs) accountable for the bulk of recent advances.
Throwing the high tech stocks out of the mix would yield some rather mundane results in the NAZ, but the Dow, on the other hand, gets higher marks for its eclectic mix of dividend payers, stocks in favor throughout the low-interest rate environment of the past 17 years. It's no wonder that the Dow has exceeded all expectations when it comes to valuation, especially now that the "new normal" consists of stock buybacks and higher P/E ratios than in the latter decades of the 20th century.
Cold water should not be thrown upon the success of stock pickers and other erstwhile enthusiasts of paper promises and financial propaganda. Equity shares and fiat money are the currency of choice. Better to go with the flow than try to staunch the rising tide.
At the Close: 7/28/17:
Dow: 21,830.31, +33.76 (0.15%)
NASDAQ: 6,374.68, -7.51 (-0.12%)
S&P 500: 2,472.10, -3.32 (-0.13%)
NYSE Composite: 11,954.69, -8.54 (-0.07%)
For the Week:
Dow: +250.24 (1.61%)
NASDAQ: -13.08 (-0.20)
S&P 500: -0.44 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite: +30.09 (0.25%)
Thursday, July 27, 2017
Trouble In Wonderland; Amazon Drops On Disappointing 2Q Earnings
Nothing other than the usual dippity-doodle for these schizophrenic markets run almost entirely by computer algorithms as July draws to a close.
Apparently, all the new highs were just too much to handle, except in the case of the Dow, which is nearing orbital velocity, but all the other majors pulled back around midday.
The reasons for the collapse (the NASDAQ lost 130 points in roughly an hour and-a-half) were unclear, though the growing chorus of Wall Street analysts using words like bubble, overvalued, and crash may have something to do with it.
Also on the radar is tomorrow's first estimate (guess) of second quarter '17 GDP. The first quarter was nothing to scream about, at 1.6%, but there are plenty of prognosticators calling for upwards of 2.6% for the second quarter. Others remain skeptical, but the news will be released soon enough, prior to the opening bell on Friday.
After the close, Amazon released second quarter results, which were highly anticipated, but turned out to be a dud for investors.
Amazon was down two percent in after hours trading.
So why is everybody so skittish, or is it just the algos?
At the Close, 7/27/17:
Dow: 21,796.55, +85.54 (0.39%)
NASDAQ: 6,382.19, -40.56 (-0.63%)
S&P 500: 2,475.42, -2.41 (-0.10%)
NYSE Composite: 11,963.23, -1.68 (-0.01%)
Apparently, all the new highs were just too much to handle, except in the case of the Dow, which is nearing orbital velocity, but all the other majors pulled back around midday.
The reasons for the collapse (the NASDAQ lost 130 points in roughly an hour and-a-half) were unclear, though the growing chorus of Wall Street analysts using words like bubble, overvalued, and crash may have something to do with it.
Also on the radar is tomorrow's first estimate (guess) of second quarter '17 GDP. The first quarter was nothing to scream about, at 1.6%, but there are plenty of prognosticators calling for upwards of 2.6% for the second quarter. Others remain skeptical, but the news will be released soon enough, prior to the opening bell on Friday.
After the close, Amazon released second quarter results, which were highly anticipated, but turned out to be a dud for investors.
Amazon (AMZN) reported Q2 net income of $197 million, or $0.40 per diluted share, down 77% from $857 million, or $1.78 in Q2 2016. This was on revenue of $37.955 billion, up 25% from the $30.4 billion a year ago, and above both the company's own expectations of $35.25-$37.75BN and consensus estimates of $37.18 billion. The company also reported operating margin of 1.7%, down from 2.8% last quarter and well below expectations.
Amazon was down two percent in after hours trading.
So why is everybody so skittish, or is it just the algos?
At the Close, 7/27/17:
Dow: 21,796.55, +85.54 (0.39%)
NASDAQ: 6,382.19, -40.56 (-0.63%)
S&P 500: 2,475.42, -2.41 (-0.10%)
NYSE Composite: 11,963.23, -1.68 (-0.01%)
Wednesday, July 26, 2017
Stocks Unimpressed With FOMC Decision; Dollar Dashed
The Fomc wrapped up a relatively uneventful meeting Wednesday, keeping rates unchanged and saying little to nothing about winding down the Fed's bloated balance sheet.
After two hikes already this year, rates will almost surely remain on hold until December and an announcement that the Federal Reserve is ready to shed assets may come at the September meeting, according to knowledgeable experts on the subject. Having been sufficiently prepped and prodded, the Fed can feel some confidence that a beginning of an asset unloading program won't upset the status quo too awfully much.
The one kicker is that the wildly out-of-control federal government faces a potentially debilitating debt ceiling debate and a testy budget process in September, but that will come only after congress has taken a month's vacation, pending Obamacare replace and/or repeal legislation currently under consideration in the Senate.
Nothing the Fed does can accurately predict what the paid lackeys... er, prostitutes, er, politicians will do when the rubber meets the road in terms of the soon-to-be $20 trillion national debt. Chances are good that they'll punt, laying one deep and long, giving themselves room to survive the midterm elections in 2018. One person who does not have to suffer any kind of electoral fate in that year is President Trump, who is almost certain to have boisterous opinions on the matter of the debt ceiling and federal government budget.
There are wild card outcomes which the Fed is unable to predict no matter how deep or thorough their modeling, which raises the possibility for abrupt changes in policy, and the jokers dealt by the government are not the only potential surprises. Geopolitics - specifically, North Korea, Ukraine, Iran, or Syria - may play a role in future policies, as could any number of scenarios, from ECB jump-starting their own tapering, Japan failing to follow through with continued buying of equities, or, perhaps a war between China and India stemming from border disputes in and near the Himalaya mountains. Go figure.
As far as stock movements and reactions to the FOMC nothing-burger issued today, the markets basically were held in suspended animation afterwards with a slight bias to the downside.
The outsize gains on the DJIA were largely the result of Boeing's (BA) monstrous 9.2% spike today (biggest day for BA since 10/28/08), responsible for 132 Dow points. So, essentially, the remainder of the Dow was lower, only lifted higher by the flighty airline manufacturer. Only 13 Dow components were higher, 17 lower, led down by Nike and McDonald's, the latter having made new all-time highs just yesterday, which is alarming, since what the company passes off for food has recently reached new lows. Must be their outstanding customer service or something else casual consumers just don't see or understand. Share of MCD are massively overpriced, with earnings per share of 6.25 and a stock price of roughly 156 translating to a P/E of 25. Shareholders and executives (neither of which actually eat at any of their own restaurants) are "loving' it."
The dollar got whiplashed lower, sending (alarm bells) gold and silver higher. Also on the run is the price of crude oil, as the latest reports showed a massive draw, though gasoline inventories were built. Once more, the people actually using the stuff - drivers - just don't get it, apparently.
At the Close, 7/26/17:
Dow: 21,711.01, +97.58 (0.45%)
NASDAQ: 6,422.75, +10.57 (0.16%)
S&P 500 2,477.83: 0.70 (0.03%)
NYSE Composite: 11,964.92, -0.80 (-0.01%)
After two hikes already this year, rates will almost surely remain on hold until December and an announcement that the Federal Reserve is ready to shed assets may come at the September meeting, according to knowledgeable experts on the subject. Having been sufficiently prepped and prodded, the Fed can feel some confidence that a beginning of an asset unloading program won't upset the status quo too awfully much.
The one kicker is that the wildly out-of-control federal government faces a potentially debilitating debt ceiling debate and a testy budget process in September, but that will come only after congress has taken a month's vacation, pending Obamacare replace and/or repeal legislation currently under consideration in the Senate.
Nothing the Fed does can accurately predict what the paid lackeys... er, prostitutes, er, politicians will do when the rubber meets the road in terms of the soon-to-be $20 trillion national debt. Chances are good that they'll punt, laying one deep and long, giving themselves room to survive the midterm elections in 2018. One person who does not have to suffer any kind of electoral fate in that year is President Trump, who is almost certain to have boisterous opinions on the matter of the debt ceiling and federal government budget.
There are wild card outcomes which the Fed is unable to predict no matter how deep or thorough their modeling, which raises the possibility for abrupt changes in policy, and the jokers dealt by the government are not the only potential surprises. Geopolitics - specifically, North Korea, Ukraine, Iran, or Syria - may play a role in future policies, as could any number of scenarios, from ECB jump-starting their own tapering, Japan failing to follow through with continued buying of equities, or, perhaps a war between China and India stemming from border disputes in and near the Himalaya mountains. Go figure.
As far as stock movements and reactions to the FOMC nothing-burger issued today, the markets basically were held in suspended animation afterwards with a slight bias to the downside.
The outsize gains on the DJIA were largely the result of Boeing's (BA) monstrous 9.2% spike today (biggest day for BA since 10/28/08), responsible for 132 Dow points. So, essentially, the remainder of the Dow was lower, only lifted higher by the flighty airline manufacturer. Only 13 Dow components were higher, 17 lower, led down by Nike and McDonald's, the latter having made new all-time highs just yesterday, which is alarming, since what the company passes off for food has recently reached new lows. Must be their outstanding customer service or something else casual consumers just don't see or understand. Share of MCD are massively overpriced, with earnings per share of 6.25 and a stock price of roughly 156 translating to a P/E of 25. Shareholders and executives (neither of which actually eat at any of their own restaurants) are "loving' it."
The dollar got whiplashed lower, sending (alarm bells) gold and silver higher. Also on the run is the price of crude oil, as the latest reports showed a massive draw, though gasoline inventories were built. Once more, the people actually using the stuff - drivers - just don't get it, apparently.
At the Close, 7/26/17:
Dow: 21,711.01, +97.58 (0.45%)
NASDAQ: 6,422.75, +10.57 (0.16%)
S&P 500 2,477.83: 0.70 (0.03%)
NYSE Composite: 11,964.92, -0.80 (-0.01%)
Stocks Rock No Matter The News As Long As Central Banks Spend
Proof that you can't fight people who print their own money...
Courtesy of Bloomberg and various central banks, the correlation between central banks sucking up trillions in assets and gains in global stocks is remarkable.
So, anybody thinking they're a stock-picking genius over the past eight years really needs therapy for an over bloated ego, just as the bloat in central bank balance sheets gently guides shares of all companies higher.
The frightening parts of this scenario - shown without doubt in the chart - are what happens when these central banks begin unloading assets, and what will be the timing and nature of this asset disposal sale? Will they all sell at once, or will be it be of the Chinese water torture variety, with a slow, drip, drip, drip as equities reach for fair value, far below where they reside today.
What are the consequences of this massive liquidity injection, since it's clearly already established policy and responsible for massive gains over the past eight years.
The most obvious solution for people with plenty of paper wealth would be to convert it to real assets, in the form of real estate, machinery, gemstones, precious metals, art, collectibles, and, realistically, staples, like food and water.
If the wheels come off the global Ponzi, people will starve. Look no further than Venezuela for proof that economic implosion causes severe social repercussions.
Of course, the vast majority of people living on planet Earth will be unprepared, duped into trading worthless paper and empty promises for more worthless paper and even emptier promises. Peer into underfunded pension plans - like Detroit's public plans, for instance, or many corporate plans that went belly up - for proof of what exactly that looks like.
At the end of this grand experiment called "global fiat money" for lack of a better term, what will become of the global economy, the ECB, the World Bank, the IMF, the Federal Reserve, the most massive control frauds ever foisted upon an unsuspecting public? They, and their governors, directors, and executives will try to "save us" from the financial blight, when it is they themselves causing it.
And people will continue to be duped into lives of slavish devotion to false gods.
At The Close, 7/25/17:
Dow: 21,613.43, +100.26 (0.47%)
NASDAQ: 6,412.17, +1.37 (0.02%)
S&P 500: 2,477.13, +7.22 (0.29%)
NYSE Composite: 11,965.72, +61.01 (0.51%)
Courtesy of Bloomberg and various central banks, the correlation between central banks sucking up trillions in assets and gains in global stocks is remarkable.
So, anybody thinking they're a stock-picking genius over the past eight years really needs therapy for an over bloated ego, just as the bloat in central bank balance sheets gently guides shares of all companies higher.
The frightening parts of this scenario - shown without doubt in the chart - are what happens when these central banks begin unloading assets, and what will be the timing and nature of this asset disposal sale? Will they all sell at once, or will be it be of the Chinese water torture variety, with a slow, drip, drip, drip as equities reach for fair value, far below where they reside today.
What are the consequences of this massive liquidity injection, since it's clearly already established policy and responsible for massive gains over the past eight years.
The most obvious solution for people with plenty of paper wealth would be to convert it to real assets, in the form of real estate, machinery, gemstones, precious metals, art, collectibles, and, realistically, staples, like food and water.
If the wheels come off the global Ponzi, people will starve. Look no further than Venezuela for proof that economic implosion causes severe social repercussions.
Of course, the vast majority of people living on planet Earth will be unprepared, duped into trading worthless paper and empty promises for more worthless paper and even emptier promises. Peer into underfunded pension plans - like Detroit's public plans, for instance, or many corporate plans that went belly up - for proof of what exactly that looks like.
At the end of this grand experiment called "global fiat money" for lack of a better term, what will become of the global economy, the ECB, the World Bank, the IMF, the Federal Reserve, the most massive control frauds ever foisted upon an unsuspecting public? They, and their governors, directors, and executives will try to "save us" from the financial blight, when it is they themselves causing it.
And people will continue to be duped into lives of slavish devotion to false gods.
At The Close, 7/25/17:
Dow: 21,613.43, +100.26 (0.47%)
NASDAQ: 6,412.17, +1.37 (0.02%)
S&P 500: 2,477.13, +7.22 (0.29%)
NYSE Composite: 11,965.72, +61.01 (0.51%)
Monday, July 24, 2017
For US Markets, It's Splits-ville Again
Another day, another session punctuated by divergent indices.
The NASDAQ goes up; the Dow goes down, or vice versa. The S&P 500 and NYSE Composite seem to go their own ways, more often than not, separate. All of this reeks of manipulation, selectivity, goal-seeking, and just about anything other than rational investing.
Upon examination, the stock market is nothing more than pieces of paper representing shares in company X or Y or Z, being traded for other pieces of paper known as yen, dollars, euros or pesos. It's the ultimate paper chase, based entirely on faith and foolery of grand design by the world's central bankers. It's a confidence game being played at the highest levels of finance, a dangerous precedent for the entire planet.
Unless the public detaches from the fraud, it will continue. The unique phenomenon at work in today's financial arenas is commonly known to psychiatrists as normalcy bias. It is the belief that everything seems to be working all right, so the urge to change is minimized, which is precisely the condition present in the debt-infested governments, businesses, and households everywhere.
The ultimate fear is that confidence is lost in the fiat system. After eight long years of propping up governments, businesses, and households with freshly-printed-or-minted cash, confidence is still durable, thanks to normalcy bias.
But, there are canaries in the coal mine, so to speak. These are burgeoning, non-repayable government debt, underfunded pensions (especially public union pensions), slack demand, disinflation, demographics, and the undeniable eventuality of recession, either in the US, Europe, or globally.
Fighting these trends with some degree of success has been the role of the central banks, but they are running out of viable options to keep global finance operating while also quelling local discontent, which is growing rapidly.
Money Daily does not pretend to know who is buying stocks and/or causing the variations in the major indices, but it is apparent that some entity other than brokerages are buying and it is well known that the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Swiss National Bank (SNB), and European Central Bank (ECB) have been and will continue to be outright buyers of equities.
When these entities become sellers, there will be no bottom to the markets.
Caveat Emptor.
At the Close, 7/24/17:
Dow: 21,513.17, -66.90 (-0.31%)
NASDAQ: 6,410.81, +23.05 (0.36%)
S&P 500: 2,469.91, -2.63 (-0.11%)
NYSE Composite: 11,904.71, -19.89 (-0.17%)
The NASDAQ goes up; the Dow goes down, or vice versa. The S&P 500 and NYSE Composite seem to go their own ways, more often than not, separate. All of this reeks of manipulation, selectivity, goal-seeking, and just about anything other than rational investing.
Upon examination, the stock market is nothing more than pieces of paper representing shares in company X or Y or Z, being traded for other pieces of paper known as yen, dollars, euros or pesos. It's the ultimate paper chase, based entirely on faith and foolery of grand design by the world's central bankers. It's a confidence game being played at the highest levels of finance, a dangerous precedent for the entire planet.
Unless the public detaches from the fraud, it will continue. The unique phenomenon at work in today's financial arenas is commonly known to psychiatrists as normalcy bias. It is the belief that everything seems to be working all right, so the urge to change is minimized, which is precisely the condition present in the debt-infested governments, businesses, and households everywhere.
The ultimate fear is that confidence is lost in the fiat system. After eight long years of propping up governments, businesses, and households with freshly-printed-or-minted cash, confidence is still durable, thanks to normalcy bias.
But, there are canaries in the coal mine, so to speak. These are burgeoning, non-repayable government debt, underfunded pensions (especially public union pensions), slack demand, disinflation, demographics, and the undeniable eventuality of recession, either in the US, Europe, or globally.
Fighting these trends with some degree of success has been the role of the central banks, but they are running out of viable options to keep global finance operating while also quelling local discontent, which is growing rapidly.
Money Daily does not pretend to know who is buying stocks and/or causing the variations in the major indices, but it is apparent that some entity other than brokerages are buying and it is well known that the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Swiss National Bank (SNB), and European Central Bank (ECB) have been and will continue to be outright buyers of equities.
When these entities become sellers, there will be no bottom to the markets.
Caveat Emptor.
At the Close, 7/24/17:
Dow: 21,513.17, -66.90 (-0.31%)
NASDAQ: 6,410.81, +23.05 (0.36%)
S&P 500: 2,469.91, -2.63 (-0.11%)
NYSE Composite: 11,904.71, -19.89 (-0.17%)
Saturday, July 22, 2017
Small Pullback Friday; Stocks Mixed For Week
It was a week to forget.
Nothing much occurred during the week besides the usual NASDAQ pumping, zig-zagging indices and Thursday and Friday's minor profit-taking sessions.
Equities remain elevated, though a little movement in precious metals has the markets a bit on notice that the fiat Ponzi is still in quite a fragile state.
Not that it matters, but gold and silver remain real money, while the Janet Yellens and Mario Draghis of the world continue to print and talk endlessly, their blathering covering up a multitude of malinvestment sins around the world.
All the major indices finished in the red on Friday, a somewhat unusual set-up going into next week, which will be highlighted by a do-nothing-but-talk-a-good-game FOMC meeting which concludes Wednesday.
After that? Off to the races (Saratoga opened this weekend), or back to sleep until Labor Day? With congress failing to come to grips with reality, their August vacation in the balance, the betting is that nothing good gets done in Washington and that will be just fine with Wall Street.
Onward and upward!
At the Close, 7/21/17:
Dow: 21,580.07, -31.71 (-0.15%)
NASDAQ: 6,387.75, -2.25 (-0.04%)
S&P 500: 2,472.54, -0.91 (-0.04%)
NYSE Composite: 11,924.60, -19.90 (-0.17%)
For the week:
Dow: -57.67 (-0.27%)
NASDAQ: +75.29 (1.19%)
S&P 500: +13.27 (0.54%)
NYSE Composite: +27.29 (0.23%)
Nothing much occurred during the week besides the usual NASDAQ pumping, zig-zagging indices and Thursday and Friday's minor profit-taking sessions.
Equities remain elevated, though a little movement in precious metals has the markets a bit on notice that the fiat Ponzi is still in quite a fragile state.
Not that it matters, but gold and silver remain real money, while the Janet Yellens and Mario Draghis of the world continue to print and talk endlessly, their blathering covering up a multitude of malinvestment sins around the world.
All the major indices finished in the red on Friday, a somewhat unusual set-up going into next week, which will be highlighted by a do-nothing-but-talk-a-good-game FOMC meeting which concludes Wednesday.
After that? Off to the races (Saratoga opened this weekend), or back to sleep until Labor Day? With congress failing to come to grips with reality, their August vacation in the balance, the betting is that nothing good gets done in Washington and that will be just fine with Wall Street.
Onward and upward!
At the Close, 7/21/17:
Dow: 21,580.07, -31.71 (-0.15%)
NASDAQ: 6,387.75, -2.25 (-0.04%)
S&P 500: 2,472.54, -0.91 (-0.04%)
NYSE Composite: 11,924.60, -19.90 (-0.17%)
For the week:
Dow: -57.67 (-0.27%)
NASDAQ: +75.29 (1.19%)
S&P 500: +13.27 (0.54%)
NYSE Composite: +27.29 (0.23%)
Thursday, July 20, 2017
Ice From The Sun; Who Was Bob White?
Fearless Rick, writing in the first person...
This is the first post from my new digs, actually just a $700 camper I purchased recently and added to my assets at Camp Alpha (the poor man's Trump Tower, but better in many ways).
I ran an extension cord from the camper outlet to my awesome Champion generator (runs on gasoline, whoda thunk it), fired it all up and got the refrigerator working, tested most of the outlets and lights, hooked up my $6.95 second-hand-store-bought SoundDesign dual cassette tape, AM/FM radio, record player and put on some old vinyl of 1930s and 40s jazz. It was a wonderful experience.
These markets are just crazy. Another day, another split decision. It's becoming quite annoying, so I'm trying not to pay much attention to it, since, after all, it's all funny money, conjured by the magicians at the Federal Reserve out of thin air.
Not all of us are taken in by the con. No siree!
At the Close, 7/20/17:
Dow: 21,611.78, -28.97 (-0.13%)
NASDAQ: 6,390.00, +4.96 (0.08%)
S&P 500: 2,473.45, -0.38 (-0.02%)
NYSE Composite: 11,944.50, +3.16 (0.03%)
The Dow is down, the NASDAQ is up, the S&P finishes with a fractional decline. Does anybody even care?
What interests me at the moment is the potential to make ice using solar power. It is doable, but, can it be profitable. I'm about to find out. Right at this moment, the generator has been running for about three hours on about two gallons of gas. This is not cost efficient because I've made three trays of ice cubes, re-frozen some chicken drumsticks and am in the process of freezing a trio of one liter plastic bottles filled with water (they're working).
The gas cost was about $6.00, because I use the good stuff (91+), but the solar solution is probably more cost-efficient. After the cost of the panels, batteries, connectors and the fridge/freezer, the sun does the heavy lifting, so to speak. I'll have more on this in upcoming, fantastic Money Daily posts, since the financial markets are giving me headaches.
Photos, too... but, listen to this piece by Benny Goodman from 1937, called Bob White. Nice, but, I have questions. Who was Bob White and why was the King of Swing giving him such a hard time?
Anybody?
BTW: the lilting vocals by Martha Tilton were her first recorded with Benny Goodman and his Orchestra.
Enjoy...
This is the first post from my new digs, actually just a $700 camper I purchased recently and added to my assets at Camp Alpha (the poor man's Trump Tower, but better in many ways).
I ran an extension cord from the camper outlet to my awesome Champion generator (runs on gasoline, whoda thunk it), fired it all up and got the refrigerator working, tested most of the outlets and lights, hooked up my $6.95 second-hand-store-bought SoundDesign dual cassette tape, AM/FM radio, record player and put on some old vinyl of 1930s and 40s jazz. It was a wonderful experience.
These markets are just crazy. Another day, another split decision. It's becoming quite annoying, so I'm trying not to pay much attention to it, since, after all, it's all funny money, conjured by the magicians at the Federal Reserve out of thin air.
Not all of us are taken in by the con. No siree!
At the Close, 7/20/17:
Dow: 21,611.78, -28.97 (-0.13%)
NASDAQ: 6,390.00, +4.96 (0.08%)
S&P 500: 2,473.45, -0.38 (-0.02%)
NYSE Composite: 11,944.50, +3.16 (0.03%)
The Dow is down, the NASDAQ is up, the S&P finishes with a fractional decline. Does anybody even care?
What interests me at the moment is the potential to make ice using solar power. It is doable, but, can it be profitable. I'm about to find out. Right at this moment, the generator has been running for about three hours on about two gallons of gas. This is not cost efficient because I've made three trays of ice cubes, re-frozen some chicken drumsticks and am in the process of freezing a trio of one liter plastic bottles filled with water (they're working).
The gas cost was about $6.00, because I use the good stuff (91+), but the solar solution is probably more cost-efficient. After the cost of the panels, batteries, connectors and the fridge/freezer, the sun does the heavy lifting, so to speak. I'll have more on this in upcoming, fantastic Money Daily posts, since the financial markets are giving me headaches.
Photos, too... but, listen to this piece by Benny Goodman from 1937, called Bob White. Nice, but, I have questions. Who was Bob White and why was the King of Swing giving him such a hard time?
Anybody?
BTW: the lilting vocals by Martha Tilton were her first recorded with Benny Goodman and his Orchestra.
Enjoy...
All-Time Highs on S&P, NASDAQ, Dow Industrials, NYSE Composite
Thanks to central banks, all the major averages made new closing highs on Wednesday.
This is not investing. This is centralized control.
Nothing about these markets should be believed, especially since the money represented is conjured out of thin air by central bankers. Thinking people should question this unusual feature of money and markets. Most of the world is asleep, lulled into a trance by the power of money.
It's difficult to comprehend that all of the money flows are complete fiction, but that is the truth, unfortunately.
At the Close, 7/19/17:
Dow: 21,640.75, +66.02 (0.31%)
NASDAQ: 6,385.04, +40.74 (0.64%)
S&P 500: 2,473.83, +13.22 (0.54%)
NYSE Composite: 11,941.34, +63.92 (0.54%)
This is not investing. This is centralized control.
Nothing about these markets should be believed, especially since the money represented is conjured out of thin air by central bankers. Thinking people should question this unusual feature of money and markets. Most of the world is asleep, lulled into a trance by the power of money.
It's difficult to comprehend that all of the money flows are complete fiction, but that is the truth, unfortunately.
At the Close, 7/19/17:
Dow: 21,640.75, +66.02 (0.31%)
NASDAQ: 6,385.04, +40.74 (0.64%)
S&P 500: 2,473.83, +13.22 (0.54%)
NYSE Composite: 11,941.34, +63.92 (0.54%)
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