After three months of continuous rallying in stocks, once the tariffs were finally put in place - after Trump's ill-timed 90-day "pause" - the market puked up some of the excess as markets ended a turbulent week. Taken together, the average new tariff rate rises to 15.2% from 13.3% — up significantly from 2.3% in 2024, according to an article published by Bloomberg Economics. That's quite a rise given the circumstances in the U.S. and in international relations. Americans should expect to be paying more for many imported goods while the government collects the tariff levies.
The problem with tariffs under the leadership currently in place is that the federal government is making no effort to cut spending. Americans got the tax relief that Trump promises, extending his 2017 tax cut, but any additional funds coming into the government coffers via tariff revenue will likely be squandered (or pilfered) by the unaccountable, untouchable policy-makers in congress.
If there was an honest effort to eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse, the tariff revenues would be put to work to slash the odious debt that's reached crisis levels, now more than $37 trillion. While it's still early in the game, and tariff revenues have already begun to surge, it's likely to take six months to more than a year for any noticeable effect to appear. Keep a close eye on Treasury Secretary Bessent, who should be managing the accounts in an austere manner. The government is still going to issue loads of debt and President Trump won't stop screaming at the Fed Chairman to lower the federal funds rate until Powell's term ends in May, 2026.
With the federal government paying over $1 trillion just in interest payments per year, one can't blame Trump for his rhetoric. A lower borrowing rate would cut the government's deficit significantly. But again, when does congress start making real budget cuts? Probably never.
Beyond the tariff trauma drama of Friday, Wednesday's first estimate of 2nd quarter GDP (a complete fiction at +3.0) and the non-Powell-movement (the FOMC is constipated) at the Fed, the major headline wasn't the July Non-farm Payroll number of +73,000, but the massive revisions to May and June.
According to the BLS:
The change in total non-farm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000, and the change for June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported.
The numbers were so far out of whack that President Trump fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) commissioner Erika McEntarfer, displeased with both the July number, which he considered too low, and the May and June revisions, which he considered just plain ridiculous (he's right about that).
Look, everybody who follows the jobs number already knew that the BLS is, and always has been complete fiction, their employment estimates based on various models, seasonal factoring, birth-death assumptions and a thousand other statistical anomalies. It was more than past time to get rid of the head of the Bureau. More cuts to staff should follow.
Two of the more pithy comments on social media sum up the current chaos in Washington, D.C.:
"The last six letters of her name (McEntarfer) is an anagram for "farter.""Trump just announced that he is firing Dow Jones due to the 542-point loss today."
Stocks
The major indices ended the week badly, wiping out the small gains and then some. Expectedly, the worst was the Dow Transports, which was slugged lower by 7.70%. Nothing like clogging up international trade with stifling tariffs to put all of the companies that move stuff at risk. Trump's 90-day pause almost over (most tariffs take effect August 8), the expectation is that stocks will continue lower until something else breaks, like Ukraine, Gaza, employment, rioting over deportation, et. al. With congress on vacation until Labor Day (September 1), this month may turn into a repeat of April, but without the rebound.
The VIX - the measure of volatility - was up 21.89% on Friday, from 16.61 at Thursday's close to finish out the week at 20.38, though it was as high as 21.90 early Friday afternoon.
Individual stocks moved in varying directions. Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) boomed, while Amazon (AMZN) and Coinbase (COIN) swooned. Companies such as Whirlpool (WHR), Boeing (BA) and UPS (UPS) were wrecked, citing tariff issues as proximate causes of their demise.
More than 100 companies in the S&P 500 large-cap index report second quarter earnings this week. Here are some of the bigger names. Clicking on the graphic will open a larger image in a new window or new tab.
Economic data is pretty light this week, with MBA Mortgage Interest Rates and EIA's weekly energy assessment on Wednesday, and unemployment claims Thursday morning.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 06/27/2025 | 4.19 | 4.43 | 4.49 | 4.39 | 4.36 | 4.26 | 3.97 |
| 07/03/2025 | 4.35 | 4.43 | 4.50 | 4.42 | 4.41 | 4.34 | 4.07 |
| 07/11/2025 | 4.37 | 4.39 | 4.47 | 4.41 | 4.42 | 4.31 | 4.09 |
| 07/18/2025 | 4.35 | 4.39 | 4.46 | 4.40 | 4.42 | 4.30 | 4.08 |
| 07/25/2025 | 4.37 | 4.46 | 4.46 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.31 | 4.09 |
| 08/01/2025 | 4.49 | 4.46 | 4.44 | 4.35 | 4.30 | 4.16 | 3.87 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 06/20/2025 | 3.90 | 3.86 | 3.96 | 4.16 | 4.38 | 4.90 | 4.89 |
| 06/27/2025 | 3.73 | 3.72 | 3.83 | 4.03 | 4.29 | 4.85 | 4.85 |
| 07/03/2025 | 3.88 | 3.84 | 3.94 | 4.12 | 4.35 | 4.87 | 4.86 |
| 07/11/2025 | 3.90 | 3.86 | 3.99 | 4.19 | 4.43 | 4.96 | 4.96 |
| 07/18/2025 | 3.88 | 3.84 | 3.96 | 4.18 | 4.44 | 4.99 | 5.00 |
| 07/25/2025 | 3.91 | 3.86 | 3.95 | 4.15 | 4.40 | 4.92 | 4.92 |
| 08/01/2025 | 3.69 | 3.67 | 3.77 | 3.97 | 4.23 | 4.79 | 4.81 |
The Fed gathering on Tuesday and Wednesday turned out to be nothing more than the usual hot air as the FOMC kept rates on hold for a fifth straight meeting. With only three meetings left in 2025 (September, November, December), if they're going to make three rate cuts - which was predicted at the start of this year - they'd better jump to it. There has been little to no evidence that rates need to be cut thus far, despite the two Trump appointees to the FOMC board - Michelle W. Bowman and Christopher J. Waller - voted for a 1/4-point cut.
Though much was made about the dis-unified FOMC, the fact that the two dissenting members were Trump loyalists suggests that their vote was little more than a kind gesture toward the president, otherwise, meaningless.
There will be talk of a recession if the stock swoon which took over on Friday continues through August. That would likely give the Fed cover for at least 25 basis points, maybe even 50. There's so much confusion being caused by Trump's policies that nobody is certain where anything is going, other than data pointing to a slowdown centered on Western nations. The BRICS are another story altogether, one which the Fed and Trump would rather leave in the background.
Yields got squashed on Friday, as stock profits and losses headed straight into Treasuries. The 10-year note dropped 14 basis points between Thursday and Friday, the 30-year bond dipped 8. One-year notes fell 23, 2-year notes dropped 25 basis points or 0.25% in one day, which is remarkable. Perhaps President Trump should stop calling Chairman Powell "stupid" or "late" and focus more on the market which may lower rates as a natural function.
Trying to get a lower dollar and lower interest rates at the same time, is like Trump trying to "middle" the markets, much as a sports handicapper would take both sides of a spread, hoping for a perfect result. Perfection is seldom achieved. Trump might try making more realistic choices.
Though almost nobody is mentioning it, the Treasury Yield Curve has suddenly re-inverted, with every maturity longer than 30 days, out to 10 years lower. With 1-month bills at 3.49%, only 20-year and 30-year bonds are higher, at 4.79% and 4.81%, respectively. Trump's presidency may live or die by the success or failure of his tariff policy, but, if the yield curve inverts further, even to the point of the 30-year dropping below 4.50%, plan on a recession. It's likely the U.S. is already in one, since government figures, such as the +3.0% GDP growth in the second quarter reported on Wednesday, are complete garbage and nearly meaningless in terms of real-life experience.
Spreads diverged, with 2s-10s holding fairly steady at +54, but full spectrum dashed, dropping from +55 to +32. Credit markets are tightening which is bad for banks, and, what's bad for banks is bad for almost everybody else, those being creditors.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
Oil/Gas
WTI crude oil closed out the week at $67.26, a gain of more than $2.00 from last Friday's close of $65.07. Crude briefly crossed $70 on Wednesday, but quickly retreated, the supposed Europe-U.S. trade "deal" spurring thoughts of a renaissance for big oil. The sound bites coming out of the White House were becoming more and more ominous as the week progress until finally, crude dropped like a stone on oversupply and issues of slackening demand.
Finally, when the tariff trauma reared its ugly head again on Friday, coinciding with second quarter earnings from ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), both of which finished lower on the day, crude longs got crushed. Trade policy is going to impact shipping volumes and all other travel which wouold inuitively infer lower crude pirces, though sanctions on Russia and just about every other country on earth might manifest in different degrees at various locales. If anything, slowing trade should result in lower oil prices, though nothing is very certain at the present time.
Like oil, gas prices have simply leveled off over the past month and remain at low levels. Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.13, unchanged last week.
As usual, California has the highest prices in the country, $4.47, up two cents on the week.
Mississippi and Oklahoma (both $2.69, unchanged) continued to offer the lowest prices at the pump. Louisiana, Texas, and Tennessee each posted prices of $2.74 on Sunday, followed by Arkansas ($2.75), Alabama ($2.76), and South Carolina ($2.77). North Carolina ($2.87) and Georgia ($2.89), and Florida ($2.92) put the entire Southeast under the $3 mark.
The Northeast saw pricesmove in the opposite direction. Pennsylvania ($3.24) was up six cents for the week. Other than New Hampshire ($2.99), all other New England and East coast states remained at or above $3.00, ranging from Maryland at $3.17 to Rhode Island at $3.03.
Midwest states were led by Illinois ($3.44), the price up seven cents on the week. Kansas ($2.84) is the lowest in the region, followed by North Dakota ($2.87) and Kentucky ($2.87). Other states n the region below $3 include Nebraska ($2.90), Colorado ($2.92), Wisconsin ($2.94), and South Dakota ($2.99). Iowa settled right at $3.00. Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, and Minnesota are all slightly above $3.00.
Along with California, Washington ($4.40) is the only other one above $4, as Oregon remained down a few cents below, at $3.95. Nevada ($3.71) was up a nickel. Arizona ($3.19) rose four cents, but is still priced at a premium to neighboring New Mexico at $2.91. Idaho ($3.45) and Utah ($3.32) were virtually unchanged.
Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 21 states, one fewer than last week.
Bitcoin
This week: $113,838.20
Last week: $118,275.80
2 weeks ago: $117,859.20
6 months ago: $99,655.54
One year ago: $60,761.09
Five years ago: $11,676.19
Bitcoin took a hit as did most risk assets. Similar to gold in one superficial regard, it moves contrary to the dollar, so with $USD up guess where all the Wall Street money was going? Obviously, there are fewer "diamond hands" than the general crypto narrative would lead one to believe.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 92.08; last week: 87.10
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 7/3: $3,346.50
Gold price 7/11: $3,370.30
Gold price 7/18: $3,355.50
Gold price 7/25: $3,338.50
Gold price 8/1: $3,416.00
Silver price 7/3: $37.13
Silver price 7/11: $39.08
Silver price 7/18: $38.42
Silver price 7/25: $38.33
Silver price 8/1: $37.10
Though both gold and silver were severely beaten down on the COMEX over the course of the week - gold hitting a low of $3,321 and silver as low as $36.38 - gold's rebound was sharp enough to register a solid gain on the week. Silver, however, was issued a deeper dive, and fell well short of break even. It was only a few weeks ago that silver was threatening $40/ounce, a price that COMEX and the LBMA would not tolerate.
More people watch the price of gold with more interest than that of silver, so a nearly nine percent drop on paper silver in just over a week's time doesn't get nearly the coverage it should. If anything, silver is the Achilles Heel of central banks. None of them own any in significant quantity, and despite efforts over the last 150 years it still has not been completely de-monetized, though many of the talking head in the financial media will reference it as an industrial metal, despite thousands of years as base money.
With the advent of tariffs threatening global trade, gold should see new all-time highs within the next few months as investors flee riskier assets. Silver's direction would likely be in the same manner, and move well beyond the psychological $40 barrier.
In the event of a stock market meltdown that appears to have a high probability, the possibility of gold and silver dropping in a panic trade looms another possibility, such as what happened in 2008, though the metals bounced back much more rapidly than stocks did at that time.
The week's action skewed the gold:silver ratio by nearly five points, back above 90, indicating once more that the riggers of precious metals prices have lost all credibility, and, despite silver being in a structural supply shortage now for three years running, the paper silver pushers are already panicking.
Once the tariffs become engrained into U.S. trade, attaching to everything that crosses the border, the inflationary bump should be severe enough to move both metals higher.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 38.00 | 49.85 | 42.69 | 42.00 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 39.00 | 49.95 | 45.30 | 45.66 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 3,429.00 | 3,613.50 | 3,511.89 | 3,504.75 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 3,429.99 | 3,543.50 | 3,518.25 | 3,528.06 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell for a second straight week, to $43.91, a decline of 93 cents from the July 27 price of $44.84 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
The last week of July was kind of a crazy one, but there's certain to be more madness out of Washington and Wall Street in weeks and months ahead. Better get that Christmas shopping done early this year before one of the following occurs: a) your credit cards start getting denied; b) the price of everything goes through the proverbial roof; c) doesn't matter because there's nothing to buy because of the stiff tariffs, or; d) all of the above.
We do live in interesting times. (a Chinese curse)
At the Close, Friday, August 1, 2025:
Dow: 43,588.58, -542.40 (-1.23%)
NASDAQ: 20,650.13, -472.32 (-2.24%)
S&P 500: 6,238.01, -101.38 (-1.60%)
NYSE Composite: 20,267.69, -190.76 (-0.93%)
For the Week:
Dow: -1313.34 (-2.92%)
NASDAQ: -458.19 (-2.17%)
S&P 500: -150.63 (-2.36%)
NYSE Composite: -682.76 (-3.26%)
Dow Transports: -1260.60 (-7.70%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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