(Editor's note: A power outage from roughly 10:00 am - 3:30 pm ET Sunday prevented the completion of the WEEKEND WRAP in a reasonable manner. This is the best for now. Apologies for any inconvenience.)
Jackson Hole has come and gone. Glad that’s over. From a Broadway production perspective, the keynote address by Fed Chair Keven Warsh at the Wyoming Symposium was a big flop. It didn’t come close to living up to the hype, which should have been expected. Warsh isn’t a blabbermouth. He’s not going to give Wall Street what it so dearly desires: an advance look at Fed policy with which to front run.
However, the Wall Street blurb machine has to have something upon which to hang its hat, and it’s usually noise, which is exactly what Jackson Hole is all about: sending messages only the rubes can hear, like an economic dog whistle. Most everybody with skin in the game ignores it. Real decisions are made behind closed doors, as they always have been. Warsh is returning the Federal Reserve to its secrecy roots.
At least congress is still out of session, and for that, everybody is relieved. Lindsay Graham is still dead and with his demise, some of the neocon rhetoric dies daily.
There’s plenty to be positive about, including the state of affairs in the Middle East, where oil shipments are beginning to pass through the straight of Hormuz at a higher rate, precluding what may have been a regional conflagration and global economic disaster.
The week ahead will be punctuated with the August Non-farm Payroll report from the BLS on Friday, likely to be overshadowed by the start of the NFL and college football seasons.
More noise, less signal, less sense.
Stocks
Stocks were higher through the week despite minor pullbacks, mostly contained within the NASDAQ tech complex. Most of August has been boring. The last week and the first few days of September, heading to the Labor Day weekend aren’t likely to be very dramatic.
It’s the week after that when things will be getting a bit more interesting. Congress has work to do (which they won’t), and the next two months will be filled with the cacophonous sounds of electioneering campaigns.
The Republican Party, in an effort to overturn history, seeks to hold its majority in the House and Senate. It’s a long shot, as most of the time the party in power loses seats, but they’ve got their chief carnival barker, President Trump, pulling out all the stops, such as he did last week with the announcement of the 100-year lease with Venezuela’s oil fields and the renaming of Lake Ontario to Lake America.
The President, full of cheap parlor tricks, is likely to do everything in his power to convince the American public that the world is just peachy keen, there’s nothing to worry about and stocks will continue to move higher and higher, at least until the first week of November.
That’s when investors may begin to get a little nervous about the bloated stock prices, the AI transformation, and the hidden, brewing, private credit collapse. America is undergoing a major transformation. There are broken promises and shadow lending companies on the ropes, leading to a larger meltdown at major banks, which have loads of bad loans warehoused on and off their dodgy books. The financial sector, which drives the economy, is a mirage. There are potholes and falling bridges galore, neatly hidden from view by crafty accountants, harkening back to inglorious days of Enron, the Dotcom crash and he sub-prime crisis.
Another crisis is already making its way through the pipeline. It may emerge as an October surprise, or it could be delayed until after the midterms. In the case that new highs aren’t made on the major indices before October, it’s almost an are bet that something big is on its way. As usual, the big question is timing. Before November 3rd, or after?
Either way, look for institutions to start building out protection schemes rather than shooting stocks higher. That would be the tip-off.
There will be a few more companies reporting second quarter results in the week ahead.
Monday: (before open) BiolineRX (BLRX)
Tuesday: (before open) Medtronic (MDT), Yext (YEXT); (after close) PaloAlto Networks (PANW), GitLab (GTLB), Dell (DELL), Sportsman’s Warehouse (SPWH)
Wednesday: (before open) Ollie’s (OLLI), Daktronics (DAKT); (after close) Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Five Below (FIVE), Broadcom (AVGO)
Thursday: (before open) Victoria’s Secret (VSXY), Toro (TTC), Land’s End (LE), Ciena (CIEN) ; (after close) Docusign (DOCU), Asana (ASAN), Lululemon (LULU), ZScaler (ZS)
Employment will be the focus of data drops in the week ahead, with the monthly JOLTS release on Tuesday, along with ISM manufacturing PMIs. Wednesday it's ADP's turn to jangle some nerves with its monthly jobs data. Thursday's initial and continuing jobless claims precede the big event Friday, the BLS August Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/24/2026 | 3.80 | 3.88 | 3.95 | 3.96 | 4.04 | 4.08 | 4.14 |
| 07/31/2026 | 3.78 | 3.80 | 3.85 | 3.83 | 3.92 | 3.98 | 4.08 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3.79 | 3.79 | 3.83 | 3.87 | 3.89 | 3.96 | 4.01 |
| 08/14/2026 | 3.79 | 3.80 | 3.81 | 3.86 | 3.88 | 3.95 | 3.98 |
| 08/21/2026 | 3.80 | 3.77 | 3.80 | 3.88 | 3.90 | 3.95 | 4.03 |
| 08/28/2026 | 3.84 | 3.83 | 3.86 | 3.90 | 3.94 | 4.02 | 4.15 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/17/2026 | 4.18 | 4.21 | 4.28 | 4.40 | 4.55 | 5.07 | 5.06 |
| 07/24/2026 | 4.33 | 4.36 | 4.43 | 4.55 | 4.69 | 5.18 | 5.16 |
| 07/31/2026 | 4.28 | 4.34 | 4.45 | 4.59 | 4.75 | 5.28 | 5.27 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4.19 | 4.25 | 4.35 | 4.49 | 4.65 | 5.20 | 5.19 |
| 08/14/2026 | 4.17 | 4.24 | 4.36 | 4.51 | 4.68 | 5.25 | 5.25 |
| 08/21/2026 | 4.24 | 4.31 | 4.43 | 4.57 | 4.74 | 5.25 | 5.27 |
| 08/28/2026 | 4.34 | 4.41 | 4.48 | 4.59 | 4.73 | 5.21 | 5.22 |
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has been overshadowed - perhaps intentionally - by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has been on a month-long media tour touting his intervention on the Japanese yen, his version of operation twist, buying back government debt issuance, and declaring economic D-Day against those savages in Iran.
Bessent is nobody’s fool, but a fool knows himself. His short-term fixes to what are essentially long term problems are going to solve nothing in terms of the overcrowded treasury market or the massive debt and deficits of the uniparty in Washington. He’s applying salves and bandages to the credit markets on a piecemeal manner without any overriding long range plan and he knows it.
Warsh is likely all too happy to allow Bessent to do the heavy lifting, leaving the Fed off the hook for a change. The upcoming FOMC meeting in three weeks will be a nail-biter for some, with the Fed continuing to make noise about controlling inflation and possibly raising the federal funds target rate. It’s not likely to happen. If anything has been learned from Warsh’s short time as the head of the Fed, it’s that he’s not a boat-rocker. There’s also some consideration given to the fact that he was appointed by the current resident of the White House. Should he decide to raise rates, the howls from the Oval Office would be deafening.
A rate hike before the midterms seems like a long shot, and one afterwards would be an even greater complaint. The Fed is almost certain to stand pat on rates until 2027, though the late October and early December FOMC meetings.
Noticeably, 10-year and 30-year yields are back near where they were a month ago, despite Bessent's meddling. Spreads have compressed, with 2s-10s at +39 and full spectrum down nine basis points to +138. Should the 10-year continue to be controlled by Bessent's actions, an inversion may occur as more buyers seek shorter term maturities. Over the past two weeks, 2s have risen by 17 basis points, the 10-year by only five. Notably, one-month bills have risen to their highest yield since December 4, 2025. With many big bank analysts predicting a raise in rates at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, maybe the worry - and it certainly is for the government - should be more focused on short term rates.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +46
8/14: +51
8/21: +50
8/28: +39
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140
8/14: +146
8/21: +147
8/28: +138
Oil/Gas
With the situation in the Middle East cooling, crude oil prices dropped over the course of the week to a closing price of $83.44 as of Friday. President Trump and his henchman, Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary, all but declared victory in the war with Iran. Maybe they did, but their truth is far removed from reality. The Iran war was a massive mistake and the U.S. is bowing out gracefully before it is forcibly removed by now-hostile forces in the region, including the Arab states that did not take kindly to America’s broken promise to protect them.
According to the White House, now that the U.S. has secured a deal with Venezuela for their oil, the county no longer needs the Persian Gulf supply. At least that’s what is going to be presented to the American public. Trump will quietly take the loss, call it a win, and move on to the midterms, which is all that really matters, anyway.
If there is resolution in the Middle East, no matter how it occurs, the result will be lower oil ands prices. Expect WTI crude to fall back into a range around $65-75 per barrel, maybe lower, prior to November. Gas at the pump should decline gradually, settling out around $3.25 per gallon, just in time for the elections.
Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.06 last week and $4.03 this week, dropping from the highest Sunday price in five weeks. Peace prospects in the Middle East continue to be pursued, oil flows improving.
Gas prices in key states:
California (leader): $5.65 (+0.05)
Washington: $5.24 (0.00)
Indiana: $3.38 (lowest) (-0.13)
Oklahoma: $3.64 (-0.15)
Louisiana: $3.63 (-0.05)
Mississippi: $3.59 (-0.04)
Florida: $3.85 (+0.03)
Illinois: $4.24 (-0.13)
Pennsylvania: $4.21 (+0.05)
New York: $4.17 (+0.05)
Maryland: $3.91 (-0.08)
Michigan: $4.15 (-0.03)
Texas: $3.57 (-0.02)
Georgia: $3.73 (-0.05)
On Sunday, April 30th, there are twenty-three (23) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with twenty-five (25) below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.40) and Alaska ($4.82), with two above $5 (California and Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 12 weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging below $4.00 ($3.57-3.74) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices ranging from $3.77 to $4.01. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois in the Midwest. Prices in the Northeast rose slightly this week, with most states averaging above $4.00.
Bitcoin
This week: $78,862.44
Last week: $77,297.70
2 weeks ago: $63,223.08
6 months ago: $67,356.82
One year ago: $107,694.34
Five years ago: $49,938.51
Despite the dramatic rise in crypto overall the past few weeks, Bitcoin, even at $80,000, remains more than 30% below previous highs. It’s all speculation, largely based on the quaint notion that bitcoin and other crypto-currencies are private, anonymous, and about to replace the US$ as a medium of exchange.
Arguably, that is a laughable notion.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 67.14; last week: 66.84
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 7/31: $4,098.60
Gold price 8/7: $4,401.30
Gold price 8/14: $4,432.00
Gold price 8/21: $4,661.60
Gold price 8/28: $4,504.10
Silver price 7/31: $57.78
Silver price 8/7: $63.80
Silver price 8/14: $64.82
Silver price 8/21: $69.01
Silver price 8/28: $67.09
SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 7/31: $4,042.00
Gold 8/7: $4,340.72
Gold 8/14: $4,375.15
Gold 8/21: $4,609.49
Gold 8/28: $4,454.08
Silver: 7/31: $57.55
Silver 8/7: $63.56
Silver 8/14: $64.68
Silver 8/21: $68.96
Silver 8/28: $66.34
Something odd happened in the precious metals markets this week. Despite the massive drop on Friday, caused by little more than naked shorting at the COMEX, retail prices actually stayed roughly the same for finished goods, in some cases - as seen in the weekly eBay survey below - actually rising.
The question is whether gold and silver buyers at the retail end, and the dealers that serve them, are ignoring fluctuations in the Western markets and relying more on instinct and even pricing in other regions, like China, India, Hong Kong, and Dubai. That appears to be the case presently, but it will take more than a few days or even weeks of price data to be sure that retail has been awakened to a new reality that is more dependent on physical pricing than derivative fiction.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 oz silver coin: | 65.99 | 81.00 | 75.88 | 77.82 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 76.87 | 84.45 | 80.56 | 80.64 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 4500.00 | 4877.47 | 4690.02 | 4675.65 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 4632.31 | 4739.33 | 4676.62 | 4664.13 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) continued its advance for a fifth straight week, closing out at $78.73, an upside move of $1.30 per troy ounce from the August 23 price of $77.43.
WEEKEND WRAP
At times, Money Daily has made reference to noise versus signal when it comes to investing and trading. The week just past was a near-perfect display of how much noise actually influences trading in stocks and even in the credit markets.
Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole was purported to offer clues to the Fed’s direction concerning interest rates, and, with that, give some hints to stock traders. Nothing could have been further from the truth. Warsh’s speech offered nothing in the way of actionable insight, but rather an outline of the Fed’s approach to handling policy. There was no signal, other than the new paradigm at the Fed of being quiet and unobtrusive. That was the real takeaway from Jackson Hole, and most of the Wall Street noisemakers missed it.
Real signals are often difficult to discern, even in the best of times. In a period in which the truth is difficult, if not impossible, to define, due diligence should be preferred over sound-bites from TV clips or analysis by big bank shills.
One’s own gut feelings may provide better ideas. Take a look around. What do you see?
At the Close, Friday, August 28, 2026:
Dow: 53,559.99, -9.45 (-0.02%)
NASDAQ: 26,402.42, -138.93 (-0.52%)
S&P 500: 7,711.76, -19.23 (-0.25%)
NYSE Composite: 24,585.18, -63.85 (-0.26%)
For the Week:
Dow: +282.98 (+0.53%)
NASDAQ: +221.96 (+0.85%)
S&P 500: +37.39 (+0.49%)
NYSE Composite: +143.49 (+0.58%)
Dow Transports: -191.51 (-0.89%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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