Political Theater Weakening The Dollar; Silver, Gold Up

After setting new record all-time highs (again, and again, and again) yesterday, core investors in the S&P 500 took a back seat to the NASDAQ nutcases who pushed the index to another record close.

While this is beginning to be reminiscent of the 1999-2000 tech bubble and bust, we're still in the bubble stage, so hang on to whatever you're not trading. If you must, get some protection in cheap NASDAQ put options to protect your position.

In case you're not invested in stocks or are more interested in baseball, the NBA playoffs or the current political circus in Washington, a close eye on the dollar index might be a suggested tonic, which goes well with either gin or vodka.

Wiht the dollar index down, gold and silver registered nice gains on the day, but, as soon as the crooked dealers at the COMEX get wind of it, that will change. Gold and silver bugs keep hoping that the current fiat system implodes, which would likely enrich them, though that's an old conclusion not necessarily in order these days.

Taking close to a one percent hit on the day (could it possibly be because even Republicans are now openly in opposition to President Trump, along with the requisite fake outrage from Democrats?) the political climate in Washington is beginning to sour experienced traders and geo-political watchers, mostly because it doesn't take a break. The opposition to the current sitting president is outrageous and loud, and the fear is that something is going to break, if not the President's tweeting pattern, then maybe blood vessels on house minority leader Nancy Pelosi's forehead.

Then again, majority leader Paul Ryan's sound bites on the "Trump gave Russia top secret info" fake news has to make one wonder just what the deep state has on him. He looks like a square guy, but he acts like a Democrat, unless, of course, Trump pushes through a healthcare reform bill or something along those lines. Then he's all glad-handing and giddy. The guy has no political future, and, unless the press and the Democrats begin conducting themselves in more decorous manners, neither does the country.

At the Close, 5/16/17:
Dow: 20,979.75, -2.19 (-0.01%)
NASDAQ: 6,169.87, +20.20 (0.33%)
S&P 500: 2,400.67, -1.65 (-0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 11,606.49, -7.75 (-0.07%)

With the Fed Pledged to Complete Wall Street Backing, There's No Top In Sight

At the Close, 5/15/17:
Dow: 20,981.94, +85.33 (0.41%)
NASDAQ: 6,149.67, +28.44 (0.46%)
S&P 500: 2,402.32, +11.42 (0.48%)
NYSE Composite: 11,614.23, +67.18 (0.58%)

Welcome to the asylum.

Just for reference, a random look at stocks from a one-year perspective.

On May 16, 2016, here's where the major averages closed.
Dow: 17,500.94
NASDAQ: 4,769.56
S&P 500: 2,052.32
NYSE Composite: 10,250.49

OK, so those look like nice gains, right? How much, percentage-wise, through today's close:
Dow: 16.59%
NASDAQ: 22.45%
S&P 500: 14.58%
NYSE Composite: 11.75%

The obvious question is, how long, with the current bull market more than 8 years long (second longest in market history) can this continue?

Skeptics posit that the entire global financial structure is a massive Ponzi scheme based entirely on fiat money backed by nothing, while realists may refer the old "go with the flow" ideology.

With the Fed continuing to be accommodative via historically low interest rates and the continued buying of financial assets by central banks, there may be no better time to be in the market.

Whoever it was who coined the term, "don't fight the Fed," should be sainted immediately by Pope Francis. This bull market could last another two years or end in two weeks. For now, nearly the entire investment community (approaching 100%) is bullish on stocks, which typically signals a turn of fortune. However, this time truly is different. Never has there been the levels of accommodation and asset purchasing by central banks, who eventually, if current patterns play out, will own the entire market, at inflated prices.

Then what?

Global hyperinflation? It could happen, but that will take time.

Stay the course. This is the age of easy money.

Stocks Little Changed For Week With Tech Titans Continuing Leadership

Taken as a whole, the week on Wall Street was about as exciting as a Gheorghe Zamfir concert, without the music.

Stocks gyrated through very narrow ranges, extending a pattern that have prevailed - with only minor aberrations - since late March. In that span of time the major averages are roughly even on a daily and weekly basis, the major exception being the NASDAQ, which continues to climb without regard to fundamentals, driven largely on an odd combination of momentum, hope, faith, greed and a noticeable absence of fear, pricing out major tech companies, especially Alphabet (GOOG), parent of Google; Amazon (AMZN); Apple (AAPL); and Facebook (FB).

Those four companies have outperformed the broader market and carried the whole of Wall Street with it. In an investing environment largely devoid of critical analysis, these "no-brainers" of tech 2.0 or 3.0, or whatever moniker one wishes to place upon the rapid multiple expansion in this space, a few stocks make for giddy headlines.

The facts be damned; all of the investment money from funds and pension plans are routinely flowing into this small piece of the pie, crowding out smaller firms which operate without the largess of the Wall Street elite connected by the hip to the Federal Reserve.

It's a troubling scenario which bears watching closely as the bull market continues to run at its own pace. With the Fed and central bank cronies underwriting the entire market, there's a fakery here that is reminiscent of the tightly-held mainstream media.

Happy hunting!


At the Close, 5/12/17:
Dow: 20,896.61, -22.81 (-0.11%)
NASDAQ: 6,121.23, +5.27 (0.09%)
S&P 500: 2,390.90, -3.54 (-0.15%)
NYSE Composite: 11,547.05, -16.55 (-0.14%)

For the week:
Dow: -110.33 (-0.53%)
NASDAQ: +20.47 (0.34%)
S&P 500: -3.54 (-0.15%)
NYSE Composite: -68.54 (-0.59%)

Retailers Post Losses, Send Stocks Reeling Before Late-Day Recovery

Stocks finished lower, but well off the lows set earlier in the day, as Macy's and other retailers continue to under-perform the broader market.

The retailer reported earnings well below expectations. Kohl's, Penny's, Sears, Nordstrom and Dillards were also big losers on the day. Macy's same-stare sales plummeted 5.2% in April.

The demise of brick-and-mortar retailing is a continuing trend that shows no sign of abating as Americans turn to online retailing as their preferred buying methodology. Store closing in malls and shopping centers around the country have only accelerated as company CEOs seek ways to cut costs and salvage what remains of a buggy-whip-type industry.

Alongside retail, cable companies and network broadcasters could be next, as consumers, enraged over continued increases in television subscription services, cut the cord and elect to go completely wireless.

These trends should continue until most of North America sees malls and cable and phone lines as mere remnants of a wired, consumer-driven past.

At the close, 5/11/17:
Dow: 20,919.42, -23.69 (-0.11%)
NASDAQ: 6,115.96, -13.18 (-0.22%)
S&P 500: 2,394.44, -5.19 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 11,563.60, -35.38 (-0.31%)

Why Is The Internet Such A Pain In The Behind?

Why can't we get what we want from the internet?

Three things that are frustrating:

1. Yahoo Finance - all I wanted was an orderly listing of the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ and the NYSE Composite. I have it in my portfolio watchlist, but Yahoo Finance can't seem to understand that I want those items on the sidebar when I open the Finance home page. Instead I get "Recently Viewed," which is garbage, since I seldom look at stocks on their horrifically-slow, impossible-to-navigate website. I tried to customize my view - three &*@#$%@#) times - without success. Why did Verizon buy this price of junk? And for how much? They'll need 50 coders working full time for a year to unscramble this spaghetti code. ArgHHHH!

2. Cell plans - I broke down and went with an unlimited plan via a hotspot because I'm out in the sticks where theere is no cable. It's just over $100 a month, but, the kicker is that if I wanted to add my phone, it would have cost another $20 a month. Seriously? I hardly use my phone, so I kept my super-cheap pay-as-I-go plan, which costs me about $6 a month, since I have grown increasingly reluctant to talk to anyone unless absolutely necessary. I have a flip-phone.

3. Ebay, Amazon, and other online "marketplaces" - All I want is a place where I can list my items for sale and link back to my website, which is a price guide for what I sell. I'm not trying to circumvent paying fees; I'm just trying to get more traffic. There's no way to do it, anywhere, without paying through the nose, and even then, as in eBay's unbelievable terms of service (TOS) - which runs about 90 pages (no, really) - I might be fined, listings removed and/or banned. If the internet was built primarily to LINK information in an organized fashion, why do these enormous data=hogging public companies insist on restricting user access?

It's a mess, thanks to greedy, useless, overpaid CEOs and their mindless lackeys.

Otherwise, everything is rosy. Buy stocks.

At The Close, 5/10/17:
Dow: 20,943.11, -32.67 (-0.16%)
S&P 500: 2,399.63, +2.71 (0.11%)
NASDAQ: 6,129.14, +8.56 (0.14%)
NYSE Composite: 11,598.99, +31.47 (0.27%)

Apple Tops $800 Billion Market Cap; NASDAQ Closes At All-Time High

Stocks were basically flat on Tuesday, but the NASDAQ finished at a new record high, paced, in large part by Apple (AAPL), which topped $800 billion in market cap on the day's gains.

Apple's most recent rise is likely due to two major investors, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, which has taken a major position in the world's richest company by market cap.

That's not surprising, given Buffett's record of success over the years, though it is hardly a genius pick. After all, if Buffet knows the Swiss National Bank is one of Apple's largest shareholders and continues to buy, why not join the party?

Buffet is well-connected and pretty bright, but owning Apple is pretty much a no-brainer in these days of central bank asset boosting.

At the Close, 5/9/17:
Dow: 20,975.78, -36.50 (-0.17%)
NASDAQ: 6,120.59, +17.93 (0.29%)
S&P 500: 2,396.92, -2.46 (-0.10%)
NYSE Composite: 11,567.52, -27.74 (-0.24%)

Stocks Gain, But Nobody Should Be Surprised Thanks To The Swiss National Bank

Today's comment is going to be very brief, because, as stocks finished ever-so-slightly in positive territory (excepting the NYSE Comp.), that should not be news since central banks continue to purchase financial assets at a record pace, the latest paper-printer being the Swiss National Bank (SNB), one of Apple's (AAPL) major shareholders.

iYodelee-hoo.

At the Close, 5/8/2017:
Dow: 21,012.28, +5.34 (0.03%)
NASDAQ: 6,102.66, +1.90 (0.03%)
S&P 500: 2,399.38, +0.09 (0.00%)
NYSE Composite: 11,595.26, -20.35 (-0.18%)

Stocks Rally Friday to End Week Positively

The reaction wasn't immediate, but Wall Street eventually responded to the April non-farm payroll result, registering solid gains into the close of trading Friday.

The BLS reported a gain of 211,000 jobs for the prior month, well above estimates which called for a figure of 180,000. Coupled with the Fed keeping interest rates on hold for the time being, stocks finished the week with solid gains, marking the third straight week that stocks finished positively.

Some skepticism remained as the March payroll numbers were downgraded further, from 98,000 to a disappointing 79,000.

Still, the solid showing on Friday put all the major indices into positive territory for the week, all closing near all-time highs.

How long the love-fest with stocks can continue is anybody's guess, but it appears nobody is giving up gains at this juncture.

At The Close, 5/5/17:
Dow: 21,006.94, +55.47 (0.26%)
NASDAQ: 6,100.76, +25.42 (0.42%)
S&P 500: 2,399.29, +9.77 (0.41%)
NYSE Composite: 11,615.61, +80.90 (0.70%)


For the Week:
Dow: +66.43 (0.32%)
NASDAQ: +53.15 (0.88%)
S&P 500: +15.09 (0.63%)
NYSE Composite: +79.51 (0.69%)

FOMC Keeps Fed Funds Rate Unchanged; Stocks Look Elsewhere

As expected the FOMC of the Federal Reserve took no action on interest rates Wednesday, concluding their two-day May meeting.

The federal funds rate remained at 0.75-1.00% for now, though analysts expect the Fed to raise rates twice more this year, most likely at the June and September or December meetings.

While the Fed wants to raise rates in order to have some ammunition to stave off any chance of a recession, the thinking is somewhat backwards. One would normally raise rates in good times, to keep the economy from overheating. Increasing the cost of borrowing in a stable environment might produce exactly what the Fed is fighting - an economic downturn.

Skepticism is high over the Federal Reserve's actual control of the economy beyond their massive "investments" and liquidity injections over the past eight years since the GFC. Now that the Fed has done its job, the ECB and Bank of Japan have picked up the slack with hefty asset purchases. How these central bankers intend to wind down their bloated balance sheets without causing severe oversupply is a question that remains unanswered, thus the nervousness within what is, after all, the second-longest bull market in history.

At the end of the day, only the Dow finished positive. The other major markets were marginally on the downside.

At the close, 5/3/17:
Dow: 20,957.90, +8.01 (0.04%)
NASDAQ: 6,072.55, -22.82 (-0.37%)
S&P 500: 2,388.13, -3.04 (-0.13%)
NYSE Composite: 11,529.66, -21.64 (-0.19%)

Wall Street Frowns Over No Government Shutdown, 0.7% GDP Growth

The morons elected officials occupying the nation's capitol decided to punt on Friday, issuing a continuing resolution to keep the federal government operating for another week, rather than risk a government shutdown (which isn't really a shutdown), but Wall Street seemed unimpressed by their shenanigans.

Stocks closed lower on Friday, possibly as a form of relief after massive gains earlier in the week, finishing with minor losses, but with their second straight weekly gain.

After what promised to be a week of rancor and argument turned into a mere smattering of name-calling and finger-pointing, investors seemed unfazed by what didn't happen in Washington. The first estimate of first quarter GDP also added to the disappointment, coming in at the worst in three years, showing paltry 0.7% growth. That probably had more to do with Friday's decline than anything the government did or did not do.

The poor reading on the economy follows a similarly bad reading in the March non-farm payroll report, which showed the US economy stalling out a bit, adding just 98,000 jobs, a big miss on rosy estimates.

If the overall economic figures continue to flag, it will be difficult for the Fed to raise interest rates any further and probably not at the May FOMC meeting, which happens to be this week, Tuesday and Wednesday, May 2 and 3. A stalled-out economy may also keep the Fed on hold until the fall. The FOMC meets on June 13-14 and again on July 25-26. After that, they don't meet again until September.

The politicians have failed to pass any meaningful legislation, ObamaCare is still the law of the land, the congress continues to borrow money despite the highest tax receipts in history, and, if not for steady winnings in stocks, the American people would be up in arms over the lack of purpose and dignity in the halls of congress.

If, by some stroke of good fortune, the government would cease to exist on a semi-permanent basis, it might spark a rally on Wall Street the likes of which have never been seen. Since what the current federal government consists of does nothing for the betterment of the American citizen, perhaps it should declare itself ineffective and incompetent, and finally shut itself down.

We can only hope...

At the Close, 4/28/17:
Dow: 20,940.51, -40.82 (-0.19%)
NASDAQ: 6,047.61, -1.33 (-0.02%)
S&P 500: 2,384.20, -4.57 (-0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 11,536.08, -42.44 (-0.37%)

For the week:
Dow: +392.75 (1.91%)
NASDAQ: +137.08 (2.32%)
S&P 500: +35.53 (1.51%)
NYSE Composite: +146.95 (1.29%)

Wall Street Stalling As DC Politicians Fight Over Nothing, Threaten Shutdown

The NASDAQ recorded another record close (6,048.94), but stocks struggled to remain positive Thursday as politicians in Washington continued to wrangle over funding the government and a potential vote on a replacement for Obamacare.

Democrats have called for a government shutdown if the Republicans bring a health care bill to the House floor before passing a continuing resolution for federal government funding.

This seems to be all that the politicos in Washington - and, apparently, the wizards of Wall Street - care about at present, though first quarter corporate earnings continue to be largely impressive.

Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet, parent of Google (GOOG), released impressive first quarter results. Both stocks were up sharply on the day, but there was little luster elsewhere.

With gridlock having become the norm for the sacred cows of congress, investors need to begin looking beyond the sham that is government, which loses money all the time and is generally a burden to taxpayers rather than a benefit, for other catalysts to keep the eight-year bull market ramping along.

Nothing good is going to come out of Washington, DC, for the foreseeable future. Investors should turn a blind eye toward the nation's capitol and focus in on business, the true creator of capital.

At The Close, Thursday, April 27, 2017:
Dow: 20,981.33, +6.24 (0.03%)
NASDAQ: 6,048.94, +23.71 (0.39%)
S&P 500: 2,388.77, +1.32 (0.06%)
NYSE Composite: -11,578.52, -14.39 (-0.12%)

Stocks Rally As No Government Shutdown Seen; NASDAQ At Record High

Closing at as record high, the NASDAQ powered through the 6000 mark while the Dow and S&P 500 had their best back-to-back sessions of the year.

Investors appear to be pleased with the progress in Washington toward a peaceful resolution to the budget, in which the congress must fund the government by Friday night or be forced to close down parts of the federal apparatus.

Key to the negotiation has been President Trump's masterful handling of the situation, saying he can wait until later in the year to get congress to partially fund the building of the wall between Mexico and the United States on the US southern border. Democrats have already cried wolf over the measly $1.3 billion that would need to be appropriated to get the project into planning stage. Trump, knowing that a government shutdown would be blamed on Republicans, backed off his demands in order to attain at least a limited peace with the obstructionist Democrats.

This master stroke by Trump left investors giddy with confidence that the government will function without interruption. Also aiding the rally was a spate of earnings, notably by McDonald's, which suggested the economy is on a solid, growing footing.

Though the bull market which began in March of 2009 seems to be getting long in the tooth, the expansion due to Trump policies may just be starting.

At the Close, Tuesday, April 25, 2017:
Dow: 20,996.12, +232.23 (1.12%)
NASDAQ: 6,025.49, +41.67 (0.70%)
S&P 500: 2,388.61, +14.46 (0.61%)
NYSE Composite: 11,603.28, +71.49 (0.62%)

Stocks Make Third Weekly Gain In Last Seven; Government Shutdown Looms; Central Banks On Buying Spree

Stocks fell softly to close out the week, but ended with the third weekly gain in the past seven, the major averages having hit something of a speed bump of late what with the wranglings and do-nothings in Washington DC, heightened military potentialities in the Mideast and Pacific Rim (North Korea), sloppy economic data, the passing of the income tax filing deadline, and the non-stop media parade of fake news mostly designed to undermine the presidency of one Mr. Donald J. Trump.

While the overall tone of the market is nothing to get aroused over, the upcoming week could bring some more sobering developments as congress returns from a two-week vacation (a vacation from doing nothing) coinciding with Spring Break. One wishes the congresspeople well enough, but actually doing something to benefit the American public for a change would be welcome. While President Trump is trying his level best, the Democrats and their trainers in the media complex are simply playing in an alternate universe and at times coming close to treasonous actions by working against the best interests of the Republic and focusing solely on what they consider the primary interest of their party.

As the coming week progresses, the level of rancor and obtuseness could reach a fever pitch as the government faces a deadline on April 28 for some kind of budget agreement, or, more likely, another in a too long series of continuing resolutions. Both sides of the debate over what to overspend upon are already well-suited in their peculiar ideological jumpsuits, the Democrats desperate to hold onto the last vestiges of failed socialism (called progressive by the liberal left and ultra-left media), the Republicans - in congress at least - looking to cement their dicey majorities in both houses.

At the outside looking in is the current administration, bent on keeping at least some of the promises Mr. Trump made during the campaign, though reneging against the American people has become so common in the post-Vietnam era that it's almost laughable that anyone would believe a word coming from the lips of any politician in Washington.

Thus, a government shutdown looms a real possibility, though more likely a dramatic, last-gasp, late-into-the-night-made-for-TV deal is probably what's driving the phony debate. As the politicians pose and posture, many American citizens are becoming keenly aware that federal government budgets are a laughable charade, being that deficits continue on and beyond the horizon, the national debt already within $16 billion of $20 trillion, a condition only humans could have created and something only a government with all the fiscal discipline of a 12-year-old with dad's credit card could continue.

At the end of the debate, shutdown, or partial farce, the world will continue spinning, Americans will be the bag-holders of the century and the central bank ponzi will continue.

Holders of stocks should worry the least, since the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the European Central Bank (ECB) "invested" over ONE TRILLION US DOLLARS in global financial instruments in the first four months of the year, a record amount. Certainly, the Fed and Bank of England - not to mention the Swiss National Bank - are quietly doing their part to keep the liquidity flowing in the background, using all manner of underhanded tactics to undermine every national currency available.

The policy of central bank asset-grabbing is unprecedented in financial history, though rather a common theme since the meltdown of 2008-09.

In the end, 98% of the world's population will own almost none of the assets, the central banks having snatched up anything that hasn't already been bolted down, and they're sure to use wrenches and sledgehammers to take whatever remains as well.

Though the times are trying, central bankers continue buying.

At the Close, Friday, April 21, 2017:
Dow: 20,547.76 -30.95 (-0.15%)
NASDAQ: 5,910.52, -6.26 (-0.11%)
S&P 500: 2,348.69, +-7.15 (-0.30%)
NYSE Composite: 11,389.13, -37.78 (-0.33%)

For the week:
Dow: +94.51 (0.46%)
NASDAQ: +105.37 (1.82%)
S&P 500: +19.74 (0.85%)
NYSE Composite: +65.60 (0.57%)

Stocks Surge, But Indecision Remains

This market cant seem to make up its mind.

At least that's the impression from the past few days of trading - or even the past eight weeks - which has seen the major averages whipsawed by varying reports of Trump administration plans, key industry data, jobless claims, and the all-important stance by the Federal Reserve on raising the federal funds rate.

On that last point, the recent March non-farm payroll data should have put the kibosh on any rate hikes until at least July, and that's the thinking of most of the Wall Street analysts, who actually get it right some of the time.

With just Friday remaining, unless stocks are donw close to one percent on the day, the week will finish positive, though it would be only the fourth positive week in the last eight, another sign of indecision.

At the Close, Thursday, April 20, 2017:
Dow: 20,578.71, +174.22 (0.85%)
NASDAQ: 5,916.78, +53.74 (0.92%)
S&P 500: 2,355.84, +17.67 (0.76%)
NYSE Composite: 11,427.73, +85.31 (0.75%)

Stocks Split, But Down On The Main; Valuation Could Be At The Root

Something is upsetting the markets, but it's difficult to find an appropriate culprit for the current nausea.

Maybe it's an overhang from tax filing day, even though that is now two days in arrears, still, the amount of taxes Americans pa to federal, state, and local governments has probably never been higher. If taxes rates are not the largest they've ever been, they're certainly close to being so.

It takes 113 working days for the average American worker to earn enough money just to pay off the taxman. That day arrives - for most people - around mid-May, so perhaps the realization that one hasn't yet worked enough just to stay even with the bloated governments that regulate every conceivable activity might be a cause for upset.

Falling stock prices cannot be attributable to the current employment situation because we've been told over and over again that there are plenty of jobs in America. What we're not told is that many of those jobs are part time,
or low-paying, or otherwise dissatisfying. So, maybe it could be that.

One doesn't see to many corporate CEOs suffering, so there is virtually no possibility that these titans of industry are panic selling their shares.

What could it be?

Maybe the idea that stocks are currently trading at some of the highest valuations in history is giving some with more savvy investing skills than the average fund manager cause for concern. These people have seen tops and bottoms before, so they might just be looking for an exit and these high prices seems like a good place to take one's leave, or, as the case may be, profits.

If that's all there is to the sideways trading since mid-March, then it's probably not much to worry about, unless one is looking for a place to invest. In that regard, buying would be quite out of the question, thus solving our quandary: there are more sellers than buyers.

It could be that simple.

At the Close, Wednesday, April 19, 2017:
Dow: 20,404.49, -118.79 (-0.58%)
NASDAQ: 5,863.03, +13.56 (0.23%)
S&P 500: 2,338.17, -4.02 (-0.17%)
NYSE Composite: 11,342.42, -36.16 (-0.32%)

Stocks In Spring Funk, Well Off All-Time Highs

Monday's big rally failed to inspire much confidence as the major averages fell sharply on Tuesday, giving back most of the gains from the prior session.

If it seems that stocks have hit a wall or are in stall mode for the present, it's because they are. The last all-time high close on the Dow Jones Industrial Average was March 6, when the bellwether ended the day at 20,954.34.

The other averages have been in similar holding patterns, though the markets overall - despite their closeness to record levels - do not appear very fragile. It's just that there isn't very much velocity or volatility, and even with first quarter earnings thus far somewhat positive, they haven't supplied a catalyst to move stocks out of a Spring funk.

Without a clear case for an upside move, speculators may be looking more to politics for a positive tone, but the rancor in Washington has been at near-deafening levels since the inauguration of Donald Trump in January and the Democrats seem to be dug in to obstruct any and all of the President's agendas.

China and Russia moving troops to the borders of North Korea, along with US warships steaming towards its coast, probably has dampened investor appetite as well.

But that's all for the time being. Economic data is pointing to more of the same, a slow, dolorous economy that isn't making anybody happy, least of which are the governors of the Fed, who wish to see more robust job creation and some pricing power by corporations, but, exclusively in the latter case, are seeing the opposite. Consumers are no longer the suckers they once were, and are beginning to demand value for their dollars. Retailers and restaurants - the front lines for consumer inflation - have been feeling the pinch, with many regional and national chains already engaged in a pitched price war.

That kind of activity can only go one way, and it's not the way of inflation. Bond sellers are a happy bunch for this, with prices for their offerings high and yields down.

Trump may want to make America great again, but it may have to start with better deals for consumers.

At the Close, Tuesday, April 18, 2017:
Dow: 20,523.28, -113.64, (-0.55%)
NASDAQ: 5,849.47, -7.32 (-0.12%)
S&P 500: 2,342.19, -6.82 (-0.29%)
NYSE Composite: 11,378.58, -48.50 (-0.42%)

Stocks Bounce Higher After Long Weekend; Bond Yields Smashed

Apparently, there was so much pent up demand for overpriced stocks that all the major averages posted nearly one percent gains.

Surely, this has something to do with the failed North Korean missile launch on Sunday, though there might be some Russian involvement in stocks going higher.

Then again, it just might be that speculators are taking one final dive into equities before this year's official federal income tax deadline (April 18), getting all they can out of super low interest rates.

Speaking of interest rates, the officials over at the Federal Reserve must be highly perplexed, with the 10-year note resting comfortably at around 2.20% yield. Somebody's happy, but surely not the millions of retirees who pine for the days when banks paid five percent interest on savings.

Those days are long gone, but the party continues. Hyperinflation for the win?

At The Close, Monday, April 17, 2017:
Dow: 20,636.92, +183.67 (0.90%)
NASDAQ: 5,856.79, +51.64 (0.89%)
S&P 500: 2,349.01, +20.06 (0.86%)
NYSE Composite: 11,427.08 +102.55 (0.91%)

If The Fed Is Upset On The CPI Drop And Stubbornly-Low Interest Rates, It Must Be A Good Friday

It's Good Friday and some of us have just finished doing our taxes (such as this writer), so, some of us are wondering what's so good about this particular Friday.

Aside from the generally-obvious religious conventions (Shouldn't it be called Bad Friday because it's the day Jesus Christ was crucified, and that doesn't seem so good?), there probably are some good things afoot.

First, the financial markets are closed, always a bonus. Second, the Labor Department announced today that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped 0.3 percent, the first decline since February 2016. They said that lower cell phone service and gasoline costs outpaced higher rents and a slight increase in food costs (0.3%).

If those food costs are to be believed, since the amount of food most people eat (and buy) can be self-regulated, higher food costs aren't really an issue at all, especially since practically nobody in America is starving at the present time.

This CPI number brings up some interesting possibilities. If the United States is actually experiencing deflation (or, as the TV pundits like to call it, because deflation is bad, you know, "disinflation") then prices are going down, everything is going to cost less. That's the bane of a strong dollar. Imports are cheaper, and, in an economy that relies on lots of imports, that drives domestically-produced goods and services down as well.

It's a win-win-win for everybody, except, possibly, the Federal Reserve, banks and bond investors who are getting anxious and perhaps a bit desperate for higher interest rates.

Well, crocodile tears are the order of the day for them. Higher interest rates are not going to happen unless the economy is strong, meaning many excess jobs are being created, pushing wages higher, and producers are experiencing strong pricing power. Both of those items - jobs and pricing - seem to be going in reverse over the short term. Bond prices have been soaring because yields have been stubbornly opposed to any kind of rise, the now nearly constant urging and jawboning from the genii at the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, Stanley Fisher, et. al. notwithstanding.

The 10-year note is hovering around 2.25% yield. That doesn't bode well for inflation. No, not at all.

Stocks were lower for the week, but they're still within a few percentage points of all-time highs. Rich people and people with 401k or pension plans are probably not very concerned with their stock holdings.

In conclusion, this may actually be a pretty good Good Friday after all. Cheaper gas and phone service is a plus and eating a little less is probably not a bad idea in a nation of fatties. Plus, if the people over at the Fed are perplexed or constipated or otherwise annoyed or agitated, that's a huge bonus.

Happy Easter. Don't eat too much ham, lamb, or hard-boiled eggs.

At The Close, Thursday, April 13, 2017:
Dow: 20,453.25, -138.61 (-0.67%)
NASDAQ: 5,805.15, -31.01 (-0.53%)
S&P 500: 2,328.95, -15.98 (-0.68%)
NYSE Composite: 11,324.53, -98.64 (-0.86%)

For the Week:
Dow: -202.85 (-0.98%)
NASDAQ: -72.66 (-1.24%)
S&P 500: -26.59 (-1.13)
NYSE Composite: -121.05 (-1.06%)

Stocks continue Doleful, Doubtful Dance On Unchanged

If anyone was thinking that Monday was a dull day for US markets, then Tuesday had to be considered a suitable capper, but only if one were to be looking only at the closing figures.

The Dow - and other major averages - took a deep dive after the opening bell, falling by as much as 145 points inside of the first two hours of trading.

A reversal took place right off the lows, regaining the green shortly after 1:00 pm ET. After that, stocks spent the rest of the session in a slow churn to close modestly in the red for the day, the only average to finish with gains was the NYSE Composite.

Naturally, this kind of two-day non-event gives even the most skeptical investor absolutely nothing upon which to base any trades, either of the buying or selling variety.

Since the markets have recently nodded off into a semi-somnabulatory state, one can only assume... well, nothing.

While the majority of awakened people in the world probably are hopeful for some kind of stimulation, perhaps it is reassuring that Wall Street finds nothing alarming about anything at this juncture.

On the other hand, it is just these kinds of days and weeks of churning about that usually precede gigantic moves, either to the up-or-downside. Anybody's directional guess is equally good right now.

At the close, Tuesday, April 11, 2017:
Dow: 20,651.30, -6.72 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 5,866.77, -14.15 (-0.24%)
S&P 500: 2,353.78, -3.38 (-0.14%)
NYSE Composite: 11,473.62, +9.28 (0.08%)

Stocks Flatten Out To Open Week On Dull Trading Day

Talk about a slow news day!

Stocks barely budged on Monday as investors apparently had more than enough on their collective minds to care about trading. The word for the day was "dull."

That's it.

At the close, Monday, April 10, 2017:
Dow: 20,658.02, +1.92 (0.01%)
NASDAQ: 5,880.93, +3.11 (0.05%)
S&P 500: 2,357.16, +1.62 (0.07%)
NYSE Composite, 11,464.34, +18.76 (0.16%)

Jobs Numbers Disappoint, Markets End Week Confused And Lower

After ADP reported blowout jobs numbers for the private sector on Wednesday (+263,000), the expectations from the BLS in Friday's March non-farm payroll report were for a solid figure.

It didn't happen, as the Labor Department reported a gain of just 98,000 jobs, the worst since President Trump was elected and a blow to his "America First" agenda.

Expectations for the BLS' NFP were 180,000, so this was a huge miss which left investors scratching their collective heads. Stocks ended the day slightly to the downside and all four major averages lower for the week.

At the Close, Friday, April 7, 2017:
Dow: 20,656.10, -6.85 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 5,877.81, -1.14 (-0.02%)
S&P 500: 2,355.54, -1.95 (-0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 11,445.58, -11.71 (-0.10%)

For the week:
Dow: -7.12 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: -33.93 (-0.57%)
S&P 500: -7.18 (-0.30%)
NYSE Composite: -47.27 (-0.41%)

Fed Minutes Scare Traders, Turns Big Gains Into Losses

The headline says it all.

After perusing the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting (mid-March), analysts and traders saw some language they didn't exactly like, even though it was probably a long-overdue dose of reality for the Wall Street speculators.

The Dow was up nearly 200 points prior to the release of the minutes at 2:00 pm ET, but quickly reversed course ending with a 41-point loss. The NASDAQ had been at all-time record levels, but closed down 14.

The two most blaring commentaries gleaned from the minutes were that some members of the committee saw stock prices as unreasonably high and a discussion about ratcheting down the Fed's bloated balance sheet, which balooned to over $4 trillion after the financial meltdown in 2008-09.

At the Close, April 5, 2017:
Dow: 20,648.15, -41.09 (-0.20%)
NASDAQ:5,864.48, -34.13 (-0.58%)
S&P 500: 2,352.95, -7.21 (-0.31%)
NYSE Composite: 11,423.36, -47.18 (-0.41%)

Stocks Finish With Small Gains On Tuesday, But ADP Jobs Report Could Change The Narrative

Stocks finished with small gains on Tuesday, but the recent squeamishness of investors may be about to change, as ADP reported job growth of 263,000 for the month of March, the largest gains seen in the small business sector, characterized as businesses with fewer than 50 employees, which gained by 118,000 during the month.

Making note of the increasingly positive tone of business and employment, stock futures were set to explode higher, with Dow futures up by more than 50 points roughly a half hour prior to the opening bell on Wall Street.

The ADP report - which covers private sector employment - is generally seen as a guide to the highly-anticipated monthly Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, generally released the first Friday of each month. The BLS is set to issue the report for March on Friday, April, 7.

At the close, April 4, 2017:
Dow: 20,689.24 +39.03 (0.19%)
NASDAQ: 5,898.61 +3.93 (0.07%)
S&P 500: 2,360.16, +1.32 (0.06%)
NYSE Composite: 11,470.54, +6.62 (0.06%)

Stocks Stalled, Bonds Subdued, April Tax Deadline Extended

As the first week of April unfolds, there appears to be no stimulating feature to the equity markets overall, as stocks barely budged on Monday and are stalled near the UNCH line again on Tuesday.

It could be that there aren't many good values out there, or that the investor class is waiting on the political class to do something... anything, to get the economy moving, though that seems a long shot, as Democrats in the House and Senate seem to want nothing more than to waste everybody's time with a continuing assault - using fake news and innuendo as their battle-axes - against Presidnet Trump and any Republican agenda.

That particular skirmish aside, the lack of movement is stocks is probably due to the age-old waiting game, which is first and foremost awaiting the March non-farm payroll data on Friday, and, after that, a slew of earnings reports which will begin to flow to the street beginning next week.

Until such time, there simply isn't much to get excited about, except maybe that all Americans will have an additional three days to file their 2016 income taxes. Due to April 15 being on a Saturday and the Washington D.C. Emancipation Day holiday being observed on April 17 instead of April 16, 2017, Tax Day is on the following Tuesday, April 18.

OK, got that? Good.

In the meantime, bond traders are acting as though the Federal Reserve will never raise the federal funds rate again in their lifetimes, with the 10-year note sinking to a yield of just 2.35%.

The 10-year has gotten as high as 2.60% this year, but quickly retreated from that March 12 high and has remained subdued for most of the year, thus far. That could change, as the Fed has euphemistically suggested that more rate hikes would be forthcoming this year -- as many as three more.

We'll see about that.

Stocks Up For Week In Aftermath Of Republican Failure On Capitol Hill

Other than the NASDAQ, which hit a new all-time high on Thursday, there was little to get excited about in stocks this week, as traders nervously weighed the failure of Republicans in congress to overturn Obamacare and waited for indications from President Trump and/or congress on plans for a budget in the near future.

Stocks were modestly higher, with gains for the major averages of between 0.30% (DJI) and 1.42% (NASDAQ).

Money Daily is back on camp schedule. More Monday.

At the Close, March 31, 2017:
Dow: 20,663.22, -65.27 (-0.31%)
NASDAQ: 5,911.74, -2.61 (-0.04%)
S&P 500: 2,362.72, -5.34 (-0.23%)
NYSE Composite: 11,492.85, -26.99 (-0.23%)

For the week:
Dow: +66.50 (0.32%)
NASDAQ: +83.00 (1.42%)
S&P 500: +18.74 (0.80%)
NYSE Composite: +73.96 (0.65%)

Stocks End Losing Streak On Vix Fix Buying Spree

Apparently, somebody at the controls of the VIX machine, the one that supposedly measures market volatility, cranked the mechanism down on Tuesday, after the thing just ran off on its own Monday, spiking above 14 (14.85 at the open Monday morning) for the first time in what seems like eons.

Not that it mattered to anybody in particular, but there were some worries deep in the bowels of Wall Street's finest casinos, brokerages the the completely contrived and extremely overbought rally would not extend into year nine with gusto, so the eight-day losing streak for the Dow was dealt a swift, manipulated whipping, as stocks took off at the open and continued a steady ascent throughout the session.

According to various and supposed "expert analysts" in places like Yahoo Finance, Market Watch and Bloomberg, Tuesday's rally was the result of impressive consumer confidence, as though the average consumer has any truck with stocks, other than, of course, being roped and prodded into various pension and 401k schemes designed to enrich their advisors retirement portfolio.

As the case may be, consumer confidence is largely tied to Wall Street's excessive enthusiasm and outrageous fees, insofar as the supine congress and the brilliant politicians in the District of Columbia (that's D.C., for all you low information investors) have decided that financial advisors and retirement planners do not have to work in a fiduciary capacity, as was supposed to be required under part of the Dodd-Frank reforms. That's not an issue now, however, as these investment "pros" can once again lead the naive retail consumers into their own vehicles with their own sets of fees and refinements. It's a lovely arrangement... for the brokerages.

Just so nobody is confused, the casino always wins, and today was further proof. Now, wait until you're 57 1/2, or 59 1/2, or 62 or 65 or 70, to begin feeling the joy of getting roughly 5-10% less return on your hard earned money than if you had just invested it yourself in a no-load mutual fund or some safe bonds, or, perish the thought, gold or silver, the latter of which continues heading higher (over $18/ounce), despite the best efforts of the central bank cartel to suppress the price, as they did again today with gold.

Funny how the only real money (intrinsic value) in the world continues to be spat upon, denigrated, and by the elite supra-nationals in our midst.

King Midas is spinning in his crypt.

At the Close, 3/28/17:
Dow: 20,701.50, +150.52 (0.73%)
NASDAQ: 5,875.14, +34.77 (0.60%)
S&P 500: 2,358.57, +16.98 (0.73%)
NYSE Composite: 11,493.84, +79.51 (0.70%)

WARNING: Congressional Democrats Are Detrimental To The Health Of The Stock Market

Just in case anybody's keeping score, Monday marked the eighth straight day of losses for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Only the buoyant NASDAQ finished with gains, a sign that there are still plenty of speculative players plying "animal spirits" despite evidence to the contrary, i.e., the VIX spiked above 13, stocks cannot maintain momentum. The eight straight losing sessions is the longest for the Dow since August 2011.

Primary drivers for the recent about face from all-time highs are politicians in Washington, now about to erupt into all-out war between the two parties over everything from the fake "Russians hacked the election" story, to blocking the confirmation of Trump's nominee for the Supreme Court, Neil Gorsuch, to walking back and away from House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes (R). Claiming he is unfit for the job, Democrats are calling for him to step down, amid accusations that he met secretly with President Trump over concerns that the incoming president was bugged by outgoing president Barack Obama's administration in November, December and January.

The Kafkaesque nature of recent developments in congress can only help make Wall Street even more jittery than it already is. Democrats have been bolstered by the stumbling attempt by Republicans in the House to overturn Obamacare, as Speak of the House, Paul Ryan, cancelled a vote on the proposed measure, which was hastily prepared and loaded with amendments and proposals that left the bill dead on arrival.

It has become crystal clear that Democrats in congress are still upset of losing the presidential election last November and trying to obstruct and delay any attempts by the current administration to fix what is wrong with the country. The new delaying tactics are designed to extend to the next recess, on April 7, at which point the Democrats can return to their districts and/or devise new tactics to thwart the smooth operation of government over a two-week span. Congress won't reconvene until the 25th of April once the recess is called.

The obvious battle being waged in Washington is not good for anyone investing in anything (except safe havens: bonds silver, gold), until one side emerges victorious and a path forward can be envisioned. Since there's little to no chance of either side claiming a decisive victory, investors should be aware and prepared for a long period of indecision and therefore, wild swings in markets and individual stocks. Nothing is safe within an environment of stealth, obfuscation, denial, lies, and feigned surprise as exists in the halls of congress leading the political sphere.

A well-defined move of funds to cash, bonds, and precious metals will offer a signal that a bear market is dead ahead, something which should be expected to occur in any case, as the current bull run is overextended and built upon mountains of debt and stock buybacks.

Developments to come - both from Washington and Wall Street - may prove deadly to bullish sentiment and frightening to anyone who still has a memory of what "normal" should look like.

CAVEAT EMPTOR

At The Close 3.27.17:
Dow: 20,550.98, -45.74 (-0.22%)
NASDAQ: 5,840.37, +11.64 (0.20%)
S&P 500: 2,341.59, -2.39 (-0.10%)
NYSE Composite: 11,414.33, -4.56 (-0.04%)

Stocks Slip As Ryan Pulls Obamacare Repeal/Replace Bill

Lacking the necessary support from rank-and-file Republicans, House Speaker Paul Ryan yanked the Obamacare Repeal and Replace Bill that had been scheduled for a vote today in the House of Representatives just as US stock markets closed.

The bill had been on shaky ground for weeks as various splinter groups within the Republican party had issues with the wording and its hasty implementation.

According to various polls, the American public didn't appreciate the bill much either, as it was getting to be regarded as Obamacare-Lite.

This leaves the Republicans, especially Speaker Ryan, with plenty of egg on their faces and an uphill battle in the congress against entrenched, obstructionist Democrats.

Most sane people are seeking relief from the poorly-named Affordable Care Act (ACA) that has featured skyrocketing healthcare premiums and absurd deductibles, most upwards of $5000 per year.

Though the official word that the bill had been pulled came moments before the Wall Street close, apparently there were many who saw it coming. The Dow Industrials ended a see-saw week with a near 60-point loss. The S&P and NYSE Composite finished with losses as well, though the NASDAQ managed a small gain.

All major indices were lower for the week.

At The Close, 3/24/17:
Dow: 20,596.72, -59.86 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: 5,828.74, +11.04 (0.19%)
S&P 500: 2,343.98, -1.98 (-0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 11,419.14, -11.76 (-0.10%)

For the Week:
Dow: -317.90 (-1.52%)
NASDAQ: -72-26 (-1.22%)
S&P 500: -34.27 (-1.44%)
NYSE Composite: -170.13 (-1.47)

America And The World Approaches The Brink Of Disaster

Let's get back to business here.

Whether or not anybody wishes to admit or observe it, America is in the midst of a crisis of almost unimaginable proportions.

We have a federal government teetering on complete disintegration over a variety of issues, including, but surely not limited to: the repeal/replacement of the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or ObamaCare); a runaway, subversive intelligence community; a Democrat party that is intent upon destroying the presidency of Donald Trump and thwarting him at every opportunity, with capable assistance from the fake media establishment in the guise of the New York Times, Washington Post, Politico, NBC, MSNBC, CBS, ABC and especially CNN (Criminally Neurotic Network); a Treasury nearly $20 trillion in debt and congress not even close to any agreement on any kind of fiscal budget or even discussion of such as the debt ceiling is being superceded.

There's more with which to deal, like crime, illegal aliens, Trump's temporary immigration ban, terrorism and such, but the issues before our broken congress are the main drivers taking the nation to the brink of disaster and quite possibly over the edge.

Not wishing to sound too pessimistic concerning the current state of affairs in the former land of the free, individual freedoms are at the core of what ails this country. If anything can be accomplished by our elected representatives, it would be first to repeal the Affordable Care Act, or, at the very least, permanently remove the individual mandate that requires every taxpayer to purchase health care or face increasingly punitive fines for failing to comply.

As it stands, the IRS is reportedly not enforcing the "law", conforming to President Trump's first Executive Order, issued on the day of his inauguration, in which he instructed all federal agencies "to exercise authority and discretion available to them to reduce potential burden..."

The more corrupt the state, the more numerous the laws.

-- Tacitus, The Annals of Imperial Rome

So, we have lawlessness being visibly encouraged, though it is directed against a law, the ACA, that carries within it, in the form of the individual mandate, a certain unconstitutionality, codified by a corrupted federal judiciary, i.e., the Supreme Court. Incidentally, that same Supreme Court is hopeless, deadlocked with eight justices, until, perhaps, the Senate decides to confirm the President's nominee, Neil Gorsuch, to take the positioned vacated by the late Antonin Scalia.

While Washington continues to devolve and approach the gates of hell, apparently driving chariots of fire, like gawkers and bookmakers, Wall Street insiders drives the market up, down, sideways and to its breaking point. The entire retail sector - with Sears leading the charge - is collapsing. Radio Shack recently re-entered bankruptcy, hopefully for the final time, and Payless Shoes is on the block. Malls across America are fast becoming nothing more than exercise walking routes for seniors rather than the shopping "experiences" for which they were designed.

We are changing, but we are not growing. The bulk of any profit is eaten alive by taxes, regulations, corporate executives, hackers and other thieves. In the end, there's little left for the common man.

And that's a crying shame, because the common man (and woman) is the person who built the country, who made it great, who is watching it self-destruct and who has nothing to do with the great default that is upon us.

The government is the problem, and seeking solutions from that very same government, be it federal, state, or local, is not a winning strategy. We will only get more of the same, and the same will only sink the nation further into the morass of stupidity, overspending, and normalcy bias with which we are currently plagued.

Our current malaise is not a democrat or republican issue. It is not liberal nor conservative. It is purely greed, avarice and corruption at every level that has besieged our once-great nation and if ever the United States of America is going to become - as the current resident of the White House proposes - great again, we must begin to call out the corrupt, the purposefully vague, the unequivocally deceitful, rapacious legislators and governors and bureaucrats that have lain waste to our nation, and all those who either back them, encourage them, enable them or act as apologists for them.

We are as close to systemic breakdown in our culture, our politic, and our economy than at any time since World War II, and that is a frightening prospect. More frightening, however, is the idea, the very concept, that ordinary people expect positive results from the very people who promulgated the predicament in the first place.

If Mr. Trump, the preeminent deal-maker of this generation, is unable to come to grips and compromise with the congress and the judiciary, it's likely that all that America has stood for will have been for naught, for we will bear witness to the destruction of the world's greatest constitutional republic in history.

But, if the wise and courageous among us will act, the destruction may yet be avoided. We face the fight of our lives over the next few years, and we cannot afford to fail.

It's not just economy at stake, but liberty and life.

Midday View: Stocks, Oil Being Crushed, Dow Down Over 200 Points; Silver, Gold Rallying

Sorry to be away so long, folks, but car issues, Spring storms and internet incapacity have had Money Daily on extended camp schedule.

Not to worry, however, as stocks are tumbling midday on Tuesday. The usual culprits are blamed (President Trump and banks), but oil is also down hard, continuing the recent trend, trading in the mid-$47 range.

On the bright side, gold and silver are surging, perhaps as a notification to the world's leaders that fiat currencies backed by empty promises cannot outlast tangible assets or real money.

A little pressed for time at the present, this will be followed up on Wednesday, all willing.

Fed Raises Rates, Wall Street Doesn't Blink

As the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate to 0.75-1.00% on Wednesday, investors and traders barely took notice of the highly-anticipated move, sending stocks higher on the day and taking a basically taking the day off Thursday. Stocks were flat-lined at the close.

All in seems to be the order of the day, so long as the Fed isn't too interested in raising rates again too soon.

More on this and other important topics in the Money Daily weekend recap, Friday afternoon and Saturday.

For now, we're just happy to have survived the great blizzard of 2017. Lots of snow, lots of wind, not much fun, but, happily, it's over.

At the close, 3.16.17:
Dow: 20,934.55 -15.55 (-0.07%)
NASDAQ: 5,900.76, 0.71 (0.01%)
S&P 500: 2,381.38, -3.88 (-0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 11,600.24, 9.93 (0.09%)

Despite Near-Surety Of Fed Rate Hike, Stocks Gain To Close Out Week

Editor's Note: This weekend edition may be the last Money Daily posting until Thursday of this week as incredibly bad weather has persisted in our neck of the woods, a recent windstorm knocking out power to over a quarter million of our neighbors immediately to the West. Bone-chilling temperatures and a major snowstorm are predicted for the early part of this coming week. Money Daily will return to a regular daily posting once weather conditions permit.

Investors took Friday's non-farm payroll (NFP) report of 235,000 net new jobs added to the US economy in February as genuine good news, despite the nearly foregone conclusion that the robust figure would make the case for a federal funds rate increase by the FOMC of the Federal Reserve a fait acommpli. The gains snapped a recent string of losing sessions on the major indices.

In reality, the idea of a rate increase of 25 basis points shouldn't be worrying to anybody, especially with the federal funds overnight rate remaining at or below zero for 14 of the past 17 years and the last eight straight.

A 0.25% increase would move the rate to 0.75-1.00, a number that the Fed has been apprehensive of since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. Since then, they and their fellow travelers in central banking have added trillions in liquidity to the fractured system, saving it from complete collapse.

In the process, however, they have managed to dilute the currencies of most nations, notably those of Japan and the European Union. While rate increases by the US may be a panacea, they could impact other nationas and the global economy in a variety of ways. As the last crisis was liquidity-driven, expect any future crises to be based upon sovereign solvency or faith in national currencies, all of which are backed by nothing more than the faith and (ahem) credit of the issuing country.

The globe is one giant Ponzi scheme, in which everybody buys each others currencies, hoping beyond hope that nobody defaults in a messy manner. Thus far, central banking institutions have managed to avoid large-scale default, but there's no guarantee that such benign conditions will avail themselves indefinitely.

On the other hand, with the ability to conjure dollars, euros and yen out of thin air at their whim, the central bankers are holding all the cards, even though they're bluffing into their sleeves. The system may fail at some point, but it's more likely that gradualism will prevail, making the case that the most important aspect of one's finances may not be generation of income or growth, but preservation of what one already owns.

At The Close, Friday, March 9, 2017:
Dow: 20,902.98, +44.79 (0.21%)
NASDAQ: 5,861.73, +22.92 (0.39%)
S&P 500: 2,372.60, +7.73 (0.33%)
NYSE Composite: 11,500.76, +43.12 (0.38%)

For the Week:
Dow: -102.73 (-0.49%)
NASDAQ: -9.03 (-0.15%)
S&P 500: -10.52 (-0.44%)
NYSE Composite: -97.61 (-0.84%)

Is Good News, Good News? February NFP 255,000; Fed Sure To Hike Rates Next Week

As was expected, the February non-farm payroll number was massive, with the US labor force expanding by 235,000 jobs according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Additionally, the unemployment rate fell to 4.7%, the excellent report supplying plenty of cover for the Federal Reserve to increase the federal funds rate when the FOMC meets next Tuesday and Wednesday.

While the jobs report has Americans ecstatic over the prospects for jobs as the first year of the Trump administration ensues, raising interest rates is not such a universally-loved subject as low rates have largely fueled the eight-year rally which continues on Wall Street.

If the Fed decides to hike rates when they meet next week, it will be the second such advance in three months. In December, the Fed increased the federal funds rate to a range of 0.50-.0.75%. The stock market shrugged it off, advancing sharply since, though the past week has seen the major averages pull back from all-time highs.

An increase to 0.75-1.00% next week would hardly be earth-shattering or even noticeable to most. Some mortgage and credit card debt is tied to the rate, though more are gauged to the prime rate, which hasn't seen much movement throughout the economic expansion.

So, perhaps the good news from the jobs report will translate into genuine good news for the economy. It will, if it slows down the pace of stock buybacks which have fueled the rally, and doesn't crimp the Main Street economy, which is beginning to show positive signs.

At The Close, 4.9.17:
Dow: 20,858.19 +2.46 (0.01%)
NASDAQ: 5,838.81, +1.25 (0.02%)
S&P 500: 2,364.87, +1.89 (0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 11,457.64, +9.43 (0.08%)

Stocks Down Third Straight Session As NFP Looms

One would assume that a good jobs number on Friday would be good for stocks, but, as the economy goes, the Fed goes against it, with tightening via a raise in the federal funds rate almost a surety if the NFP number for February comes in strong, as suggested by Wednesday's ADP figure of 298,000 new jobs added in the month.

That's the backwardness of the stock market, fueled almost entirely by cheap credit and share repurchases (buybacks) over the past eight years. In fact, today marks the 8th anniversary of the market bottom in 2009, and its been nothing but accommodation by the Fed and happy talk from the press ever since.

Thus, stocks fell for the third straight session and fourth in five days, with the exception of the NASDAQ, where speculators have still not succumbed to the axe of profit-taking.

In a sign that the narrative may be unraveling, WTI crude oil fell sharply on Wednesday, closing under $50 a barrel for the first time since December after another survey showed massive gluts in crude and distillates. This should transfer into good news for drivers as the spring and summer driving months come into focus with lower prices at the pump.

Oil has experienced a glut of magnificent proportions over the past two years with demand down and supply at or near record levels. The price of +$50 has been fueled largely by speculation, as is everything else in the financial sector. With interest rates set to increase, perhaps the malinvestments and speculative frenzy can abate and true price discovery ensue.

At The Close, 3.8.17:
Dow: 20,855.73, -69.03 (-0.33%)
NASDAQ: 5,837.55, +3.62 (0.06%)
S&P 500: 2,362.98, -5.41 (-0.23%)
NYSE Composite: 11,448.21, -58.11 (-0.51%)

Stocks Lower Again In Sluggish Trade

For the second straight session and the third in the past four, the major indices closed in the red as US equities seem to have reached the top of the proverbial "wall of worry."

More than any one thing, the investment community is concerned about the Fed raising rates next week, though the unusually highly charged political environment could be taking its toll on an overstretched market.

Stocks are not supposed to be prone to politics, but that is the unitary condition that is emerging, in which all aspects of economics, politics and religion become intertwined.

AT THE CLOSE, 3/7/17:
Dow: 20,924.76, -29.58 (-0.14%)
NASDAQ: 5,833.93, -15.25 (-0.26%)
S&P 500: 2,368.38, -6.93 (-0.29%)
NYSE Composite: 11,506.32, -41.47 (-0.36%)

Major Indices Lower To Start Week As FOMC Decision Looms

As investors weighed the risks of a March increase in the federal funds rate, all major averages slipped to open the week on Wall Street.

Members of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) have been widely suggestive that they would approve a 0.25% increase in the federal funds rate when they meet next Tuesday and Wednesday, March 14 and 15.

Thus, with money tightening, investors are squaring up positions or exiting the market in search of opportunity, primarily ending up in cash or bonds. Wall Street has rallied strongly since the election of Donald Trump as president back in November, but it appears the Fed is about to empty the punch bowl of nearly-free funding for speculators.

At The Close, 3.6.17:
Dow: 20,954.34, -51.37 (-0.24%)
NASDAQ: 5,849.18, -21.58 (-0.37%)
S&P 500: 2,375.31, -7.81 (-0.33%)
NYSE Composite: 11,547.79, -50.58 (-0.44%)