While the consensus estimate was for July Non-Farm Payrolls to show a gain of 160,000, the BLS (aka Bureau of Lies and Salaciousness) blew away the number, showing the US economy grew by 255,000 jobs in the usually dolorous month of July. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9%.
That number sent the dollar screeching higher and stocks rocketing back toward or beyond (S&P 500) all-time highs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up more than one percent, along with the NASDAQ, no doubt buoyed by the sensational jobs report and the trouncing Hillary Clinton was giving to Donald Trump in the majority of the latest polls. The elite status quo has their agenda in hand; Wall Street obviously a willing partner.
All major averages finished with modest gains for the week (with the exception of the NYSE Composite), despite the idea that a better economy - one that, say, produces 250,000+ jobs per month - might give the Federal Reserve cause to raise rates. For now, however, good news is good news.
On The Day:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,543.53, +191.48 (1.04%)
NASDAQ
5,221.12, +54.87 (1.06%)
S&P 500
2,182.87, +18.62 (0.86%)
NYSE Composite
10,781.78, +75.74 (+0.71%)
For the Week:
Dow: +111.29, (+0.60%)
S&P 500: +9.27 (+0.43%)
NASDAQ: +58.99 (+1.14%)
NYA: -2.65 (-0.02)
Friday, August 5, 2016
Thursday, August 4, 2016
Stocks Drag Trhough Thursday Session; Oil Bounces
Sluggish would be a compliment to the manner of trading that took place on Thursday, with the major indices scratching out meager gains, with the exception of the Dow 30, which took it slightly on the chin but avoided a knockout blow.
Market participants are unaware of what to do without some form of guidance by or from the Fed or other central bankers. It's almost as though markets are locked up with nowhere to go, which actually might be the case as the slog through August continues.
If there was any bright spot for the markets it was in the oil patch, where WTI crude rallied off a low spot at $40 per barrel a few days ago and now sits closer to $42. It isn't much of a move, but nervous oil specs will take any gains they can get at this juncture. With crude spilling out of every known production facility at near record pace, the glut has only worsened over the summer as demand has not exactly been robust.
The price of crude - if not for material intervention by players of significant size - should be hovering closer to $30 than $40. Crude has fallen into a bear market, more than 20% off the recent artificial high of $50 per barrel, which didn't last for more than a nanosecond.
A serious sell-off in crude over the next few weeks or into October could be the catalyst for more selling of equities and another dip in the stock markets, though the power of the Fed and other central banks to prevent anything even resembling a correction before the November presidential election cannot be underestimated.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,352.05, -2.95 (-0.02%)
NASDAQ
5,166.25, +6.51 (0.13%)
S&P 500
2,164.25, +0.46 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite
10,707.13, +11.99 (0.11%)
Market participants are unaware of what to do without some form of guidance by or from the Fed or other central bankers. It's almost as though markets are locked up with nowhere to go, which actually might be the case as the slog through August continues.
If there was any bright spot for the markets it was in the oil patch, where WTI crude rallied off a low spot at $40 per barrel a few days ago and now sits closer to $42. It isn't much of a move, but nervous oil specs will take any gains they can get at this juncture. With crude spilling out of every known production facility at near record pace, the glut has only worsened over the summer as demand has not exactly been robust.
The price of crude - if not for material intervention by players of significant size - should be hovering closer to $30 than $40. Crude has fallen into a bear market, more than 20% off the recent artificial high of $50 per barrel, which didn't last for more than a nanosecond.
A serious sell-off in crude over the next few weeks or into October could be the catalyst for more selling of equities and another dip in the stock markets, though the power of the Fed and other central banks to prevent anything even resembling a correction before the November presidential election cannot be underestimated.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,352.05, -2.95 (-0.02%)
NASDAQ
5,166.25, +6.51 (0.13%)
S&P 500
2,164.25, +0.46 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite
10,707.13, +11.99 (0.11%)
Wednesday, August 3, 2016
Dow Ends 7-Day Losing Streak, But Who's Watching The Transports And NYSE Composite?
Markets can seem exuberant, sometimes, even over-exuberant, as has lately been the case, without reason.
The current environment is one of those times by which market movements cannot be rationally explained, or as the Maestro himself - former Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan - so aptly put it, the markets seem to be suffering from irrational exuberance.
This needs to be pointed out in the current context of manipulation and high-stakes politics between the Nah! Brexit vote and the very real threat that Donald Trump might somehow wrangle himself into the Oval Office come November... to the absolute terror of the elite status quo, including everyone from Warren Buffet to Mark Cuban to Janet Yellen and just about every member of congress and Wall Street hedge fund slickster.
Money Daily has recently been pointing out that the any positive developments by Mr. Trump are and have been met with scurrying, rat-like selling of shares on the equity markets by those with very thin, lizard-like skins, probably your average congressional insider and self-important hedge fund managers.
On the other side of the coin, there's the relentless marauding of the Fed, the central bank which is prohibited from buying or selling of equities (unlike the Bank of Japan, which is now a top 10 holder of 90% of the stocks listed on the NIKKEI 225), but which has ample resources by which to funnel money into stocks via proxies such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, and Merrill Lynch, the investment arm of Bank of America, or even the Bank of Japan, which, having run out of luck in the Nikkei, is probably more than willing to buy US stocks.
It's a safe bet that the Fed and their cronies halted and reversed the post-Brexit decline, sending the Dow and S&P 500 to all-time highs via options trading and positions on the VIX, the volatility index, widely parlayed by those in the hedging business.
In fact, days before the Brexit vote, heads of the Swiss, Canadian, US and Japanese central banks were already in collusion to overcome any nasty "turbulence" in the markets, as openly reported by none other than Bloomberg.
So, it shouldn't come as any stretch of the imagination that the same types who distort presidential polls and have the mainstream media wrapped around their little fingers should also keep stocks artificially high as long as it appears that Hillary Clinton will be elected president come November 8.
Once stocks got to extreme levels, a bell went off in the heads of the big traders, telling them to take profits, resulting in a seven-day sell-off (otherwise known as consolidation), culminating in Tuesday's near-100-point decline on the Dow.
Wednesday, the Dow just barely hung on for a small gain, as did the other indices, however, the recent highs achieved by the Dow can be seen as absolute phonies, when referenced to the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA), which sold-off and rebounded like other indexes post-Brexit, but did not attain new all-time highs (for the record, neither did the NASDAQ, nor the NYSE Composite, the broadest index of US stocks).
The Transports had a good run of it, topping out at 8048.09, but were 100 points shy of the all-time record, set back in April, 2015, at 8149.00.
The same is true on the NYSE Composite (NYA), which topped out recently at 10815.43, a far cry from May 2015, when the index stood proudly at 11254.87.
Taking away from this divergence in major markets is the idea that central banks and their friends can only influence so much. They often (make that, ALWAYS) leave bits and pieces of evidence of foul play scattered about. 100 or so points on the Transportation Average and over 400 points on the Composite shows just how sloppy and misguided their adventures into manipulation of not just stocks, but perceptions, have become.
Everybody watches the Dow and S&P. The transports and composite indices, not so much, or so they believe.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,355.00, +41.23 (0.23%)
NASDAQ
5,159.74, +22.00 (0.43%)
S&P 500
2,163.79, +6.76 (0.31%)
NYSE Composite
10,695.14, +34.01 (0.32%)
The current environment is one of those times by which market movements cannot be rationally explained, or as the Maestro himself - former Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan - so aptly put it, the markets seem to be suffering from irrational exuberance.
This needs to be pointed out in the current context of manipulation and high-stakes politics between the Nah! Brexit vote and the very real threat that Donald Trump might somehow wrangle himself into the Oval Office come November... to the absolute terror of the elite status quo, including everyone from Warren Buffet to Mark Cuban to Janet Yellen and just about every member of congress and Wall Street hedge fund slickster.
Money Daily has recently been pointing out that the any positive developments by Mr. Trump are and have been met with scurrying, rat-like selling of shares on the equity markets by those with very thin, lizard-like skins, probably your average congressional insider and self-important hedge fund managers.
On the other side of the coin, there's the relentless marauding of the Fed, the central bank which is prohibited from buying or selling of equities (unlike the Bank of Japan, which is now a top 10 holder of 90% of the stocks listed on the NIKKEI 225), but which has ample resources by which to funnel money into stocks via proxies such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, and Merrill Lynch, the investment arm of Bank of America, or even the Bank of Japan, which, having run out of luck in the Nikkei, is probably more than willing to buy US stocks.
It's a safe bet that the Fed and their cronies halted and reversed the post-Brexit decline, sending the Dow and S&P 500 to all-time highs via options trading and positions on the VIX, the volatility index, widely parlayed by those in the hedging business.
In fact, days before the Brexit vote, heads of the Swiss, Canadian, US and Japanese central banks were already in collusion to overcome any nasty "turbulence" in the markets, as openly reported by none other than Bloomberg.
So, it shouldn't come as any stretch of the imagination that the same types who distort presidential polls and have the mainstream media wrapped around their little fingers should also keep stocks artificially high as long as it appears that Hillary Clinton will be elected president come November 8.
Once stocks got to extreme levels, a bell went off in the heads of the big traders, telling them to take profits, resulting in a seven-day sell-off (otherwise known as consolidation), culminating in Tuesday's near-100-point decline on the Dow.
Wednesday, the Dow just barely hung on for a small gain, as did the other indices, however, the recent highs achieved by the Dow can be seen as absolute phonies, when referenced to the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA), which sold-off and rebounded like other indexes post-Brexit, but did not attain new all-time highs (for the record, neither did the NASDAQ, nor the NYSE Composite, the broadest index of US stocks).
The Transports had a good run of it, topping out at 8048.09, but were 100 points shy of the all-time record, set back in April, 2015, at 8149.00.
The same is true on the NYSE Composite (NYA), which topped out recently at 10815.43, a far cry from May 2015, when the index stood proudly at 11254.87.
Taking away from this divergence in major markets is the idea that central banks and their friends can only influence so much. They often (make that, ALWAYS) leave bits and pieces of evidence of foul play scattered about. 100 or so points on the Transportation Average and over 400 points on the Composite shows just how sloppy and misguided their adventures into manipulation of not just stocks, but perceptions, have become.
Everybody watches the Dow and S&P. The transports and composite indices, not so much, or so they believe.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,355.00, +41.23 (0.23%)
NASDAQ
5,159.74, +22.00 (0.43%)
S&P 500
2,163.79, +6.76 (0.31%)
NYSE Composite
10,695.14, +34.01 (0.32%)
Monday, August 1, 2016
Tough Times For People Are Beginning To Appear
See-saw trading marked the first day of August, traditionally one of the quietest times for traders, so excuse your author for not offering a great deal of commentary as the "dog days" wear on through the hot month.
Stocks were up and down without direction. Japan's fiscal stimulus, largely expected to consist of some form of "helicopter money" (i.e., central bank largess via government spending and/or handouts), and, while there were some measures designed to prop up the poor and stimulate spending, it's more likely that - like everything else the BOJ has attempted the past 25 years - the plan will backfire because Japanese people are more concerned with squirreling away cash for rainy days than spending to keep the government promise of prosperity and growth.
It's the same all over the world. Governments and central banks have themselves painted into a not-so-agreeable corner, flanked by negative interest rates on one side, stagnant growth prospects on another, and a phalanx of QE, ficsal irresponsibility, crony capitalism, global income insecurity, and political instability dropping from the ceiling and oozing up through cracks in the floor.
While the political and business hoi poloi continue preaching the narrative of rosy economic successes, the average people have had enough of being lied to, cajoled and insulted by appeals by the financial authorities to their better interests, which, in truth are in nobody's good interest.
A couple of possible scenarios might emerge from the continuing diddling by the Fed and their crony central banker kin. One is that extreme lawlessness reigns, as laws are multiplied beyond the system's ability to prosecute them, or, political forces morph into ugly totalitarianism.
A good bet might be a hedge between the two, as both are already emerging in various forms, everywhere from dictatorships like the one evolving in Turkey, right down to the tin-horn generals at local levels who attempt to enforce zoning and municipal codes on wary citizens.
If there appears to be unease in every neighborhood, it's because below a calm surface is a boiling pot of anger, resentment, fear, and distrust.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,404.51, -27.73 (-0.15%)
NASDAQ
5,184.20, +22.06 (0.43%)
S&P 500
2,170.84, -2.76 (-0.13%)
NYSE Composite
10,730.20, -55.31 (-0.51%)
Stocks were up and down without direction. Japan's fiscal stimulus, largely expected to consist of some form of "helicopter money" (i.e., central bank largess via government spending and/or handouts), and, while there were some measures designed to prop up the poor and stimulate spending, it's more likely that - like everything else the BOJ has attempted the past 25 years - the plan will backfire because Japanese people are more concerned with squirreling away cash for rainy days than spending to keep the government promise of prosperity and growth.
It's the same all over the world. Governments and central banks have themselves painted into a not-so-agreeable corner, flanked by negative interest rates on one side, stagnant growth prospects on another, and a phalanx of QE, ficsal irresponsibility, crony capitalism, global income insecurity, and political instability dropping from the ceiling and oozing up through cracks in the floor.
While the political and business hoi poloi continue preaching the narrative of rosy economic successes, the average people have had enough of being lied to, cajoled and insulted by appeals by the financial authorities to their better interests, which, in truth are in nobody's good interest.
A couple of possible scenarios might emerge from the continuing diddling by the Fed and their crony central banker kin. One is that extreme lawlessness reigns, as laws are multiplied beyond the system's ability to prosecute them, or, political forces morph into ugly totalitarianism.
A good bet might be a hedge between the two, as both are already emerging in various forms, everywhere from dictatorships like the one evolving in Turkey, right down to the tin-horn generals at local levels who attempt to enforce zoning and municipal codes on wary citizens.
If there appears to be unease in every neighborhood, it's because below a calm surface is a boiling pot of anger, resentment, fear, and distrust.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,404.51, -27.73 (-0.15%)
NASDAQ
5,184.20, +22.06 (0.43%)
S&P 500
2,170.84, -2.76 (-0.13%)
NYSE Composite
10,730.20, -55.31 (-0.51%)
Thursday, July 28, 2016
As Hope For Hillary Fades, So Will Prices of Stocks
Another listless day was had on the equity exchanges, as stocks slipped in early (rigged) trading, then magically gained ground all day, with the Dow ending in the red while the NASDAQ and S&P posted incremental gains.
Oil continued to slip further away from recent, month-ago highs of $50 per barrel, closing in NY just above $41/barrel, roughly a 20% decline in a very short time. Drivers should begin to see the effects at the gas pump, as soon as higher-priced inventories are extinguished. Expect gas prices to fall back to levels seen in early Spring. Many areas in the Midwest and South are already seeing prices below $2.00 per gallon, a level seen as a panacea for economy.
The highest prices in the country are undeniably in the West, especially California, where high taxes and regulations push the price of fuel far beyond its production and profit price. Once again, we have our beneficent government to thank for wasting our money.
Winding down tonight is the Democratic National Convention, where Hillary Clinton will accept her party's nomination for president of the United States, along with running mate Tim Kaine, whose speech on Wednesday night is being criticized as being dull and boring.
More and more, it appears that the national mood is not pleasant, a boon to the campaign of Republican Donald Trump, who advocates for change.
Expect more slippage in stock prices as the elite begins to realize that their days in power may truly be numbered. Clinton is a miserable candidate, and, while Trump is no darling of the right, he is at least forthright and hopeful.
Clinton isn't getting any bump in the polls through the convention, which is usually the case. That's a bad omen for the status quo and the left.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,456.35, -15.82 (-0.09%)
NASDAQ
5,154.98, +15.17 (0.30%)
S&P 500
2,170.06, +3.48 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite
10,744.16, +4.40 (0.04%)
Oil continued to slip further away from recent, month-ago highs of $50 per barrel, closing in NY just above $41/barrel, roughly a 20% decline in a very short time. Drivers should begin to see the effects at the gas pump, as soon as higher-priced inventories are extinguished. Expect gas prices to fall back to levels seen in early Spring. Many areas in the Midwest and South are already seeing prices below $2.00 per gallon, a level seen as a panacea for economy.
The highest prices in the country are undeniably in the West, especially California, where high taxes and regulations push the price of fuel far beyond its production and profit price. Once again, we have our beneficent government to thank for wasting our money.
Winding down tonight is the Democratic National Convention, where Hillary Clinton will accept her party's nomination for president of the United States, along with running mate Tim Kaine, whose speech on Wednesday night is being criticized as being dull and boring.
More and more, it appears that the national mood is not pleasant, a boon to the campaign of Republican Donald Trump, who advocates for change.
Expect more slippage in stock prices as the elite begins to realize that their days in power may truly be numbered. Clinton is a miserable candidate, and, while Trump is no darling of the right, he is at least forthright and hopeful.
Clinton isn't getting any bump in the polls through the convention, which is usually the case. That's a bad omen for the status quo and the left.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,456.35, -15.82 (-0.09%)
NASDAQ
5,154.98, +15.17 (0.30%)
S&P 500
2,170.06, +3.48 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite
10,744.16, +4.40 (0.04%)
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