Stocks Charge Ahead; Dow At Highest Level Since February

With the bull market less than three weeks from being the longest ever in US financial history stocks moved forward as the main indices ramped higher in tandem.

The S&P 500 closed at its highest level since January while the Dow finished the session at a six-month high. The last time the Dow was higher was February 26 (25,709.27) as the industrials snapped back from a wicked decline earlier in the month.

The NASDAQ, which recently has taken on losses due to companies like Facebook (FB) and Tesla (TSLA), gained to within 50 points of its all-time high, set on July 26, at 7932.34.

All of this is happening against a backdrop of a vacationing congress, a booming economy, low unemployment, and the third rate hike of the year by the Federal Reserve on schedule for late September. The FOMC meets September 25-26, and is widely anticipated to raise the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points, to 2-2.25%.

Investors are taking an approach to stocks that is largely ignoring high valuations on the back of impressive recent returns.

While warnings that stocks are overpriced have been circulating since mid-2014, the market seems content to add to gains relentlessly, without regard to underlying fundamentals.

The wild card for stocks is the political front. On the one hand, President Trump's policies seem to have ushered in a fresh era of confidence in the US economy, while on the other, his opponents on the left continue to harass and harangue his administration.

To his credit, Mr. Trump has continued to implement policies he promised during his 2016 campaign of "Make America Great Again," while his Democrat opposition has largely been engaged in pure obstructionism against his positive message.

Where markets go from here are, naturally, unpredictable, though there's little doubt that most of the betting is on higher equity prices in the near term.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37
8/2/18	25,326.16	-7.66	-89.03
8/3/18	25,462.58	+136.42	+55.05
8/6/18	25,502.18	+39.60	+94.65
8/7/18	25,628.91	+126.73	+221.38

At the Close, Tuesday, August 7, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,628.91, +126.73 (+0.50%)
NASDAQ: 7,883.66, +23.99 (+0.31%)
S&P 500: 2,858.45, +8.05 (+0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 12,999.59, +35.32 (+0.27%)

Bull Market Lulling Investors To Sleep; Set to Be Longest in US History

All the major averages posted gains on Monday.

Boy, is this getting boring.

The bull market, which began on March 9, 2009, has lasted longer than all but one long term rally in US economic history. In less than three weeks, the bull market will become the longest ever.

Ho-hum. Money. It's so easy.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37
8/2/18	25,326.16	-7.66	-89.03
8/3/18	25,462.58	+136.42	+55.05
8/6/18	25,502.18	+39.60	+94.65

At the Close, Monday, August 6, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,502.18, +39.60 (+0.16%)
NASDAQ: 7,859.68, +47.66 (+0.61%)
S&P 500: 2,850.40, +10.05 (+0.35%)
NYSE Composite: 12,964.27, +10.93 (+0.08%)

Weekend Wrap: Dow Goes Positive For Week On Friday Ramp

Logicians need not apply.

Following the disappointment of the BLS August Non-Farm Payroll data, the general assumption was that stocks would sour, as also presaged by the index futures on the Dow Mini, et. al..

Such was not the case. Stocks rose throughout the day, based upon algorithms interpreting all news as positive, giving the Dow Industrials its best gain since July 25th.

The NASDAQ ended the week with both the best point and percentage gains, +74.60, and +0.96%, respectively.

One very prescient observation is that while volume has all but dried up the past few weeks, it's much easier for stocks to find bids than otherwise.

A resumption of the more serious selling seen in February and March is unlikely to occur until after Labor Day.

These are certainly dog days, a period in which short-side players should exercise extreme caution.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37
8/2/18	25,326.16	-7.66	-89.03
8/3/18	25,462.58	+136.42	+55.05

At the Close, Friday, August 3, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average, 25,462.58, +136.42 (+0.54%)
NASDAQ: 7,812.01, +9.33 (+0.12%)
S&P 500: 2,840.35, +13.13 (+0.46%)
NYSE Composite: 12,953.34, +55.27 (+0.43%)

For the Week:
Dow: +11.52 (+0.05%)
NASDAQ: +74.60 (+0.96%)
S&P 500: +21.53 (+0.76%)
NYSE Composite +32.00 (+0.25%)

Stocks Split As NASDAQ Soars; Jobs Report Disappoints

Stocks shrugged off a slow start on Thursday after Wednesday's sluggish session and finished split for the second straight day, with the NASDAQ and S&P posting gains while the Dow and NYSE Composite were held to small losses.

With the US congress mostly out of town for the month and earnings season winding down, the market is prone to swings in either direction at the slightest rumor or data dump.

The Dow has fallen back into the trading range that was prevalent after the February and March drop-off, while the NASDAQ gravitates near recent record closes.

The big news for Friday is the July non-farm payroll report from the BLS. Analysts were expecting 191,000 new jobs per the data, but had to settle for 157,000, well below the estimate. The unemployment rate fell one tenth of a percent to 3.9%.

Released at 8:30 am EDT, the jobs report comes as a disappointment for the bullish case. Stock futures had been strong and trending higher until the release, but fell sharply leading into the opening bell.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37
8/2/18	25,326.16	-7.66	-89.03

At the Close, Thursday, August 2, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,326.16, -7.66 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 7,802.69, +95.40 (+1.24%)
S&P 500: 2,827.22, +13.86 (+0.49%)
NYSE Composite: 12,898.07, -4.32 (-0.03%)

Dow Backtracks As Fed Holds Rates Steady

The two probably aren't related, but the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 1.75-2.00 percent and the Dow lost 81 points.

On the other hand, the NASDAQ gained 35 points, also likely unrelated to anything.

With the FOMC set to meet again September 25-26, there's nearly two months for the market to grasp what's happening in the global scheme of things. There's nearly unanimous opinion that the Fed will increase rates another 25 basis points at that time.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37

At the Close, Wednesday, August 1, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,333.82, -81.37 (-0.32%)
NASDAQ: 7,707.29, +35.50 (+0.46%)
S&P 500: 2,813.36, -2.93 (-0.10%)
NYSE Composite: 12,902.39, -60.89 (-0.47%)