Stock Rally Extends to Weekend, Rips Faces Off Bears

It was the worst of times. Then, midweek, it became the best of times.

With US stocks falling off the proverbial value cliff on Wednesday, just before noon everything suddenly changed, and the rest of the week was witness to a face-ripping surge which took the Dow Jones Industrials from a low of 15,450.56 on Wednesday to the close Friday at 16,093.51, a gain of 643 points, or, roughly four percent.

The gains from Wednesday afternoon, Thursday, and Friday were so large and so widespread that they left the seeming collapse of Tuesday and early Wednesday as fleeting memories.

Also on the agenda was the untimely end of the price collapse in crude oil, which bottomed out at 26 dollars and change on Wednesday, but closed Friday right around $32 per barrel.

Of course, all of this would not have been possible without some catalyst, like exceptional across-the-board earnings results, outstanding economic data or great geopolitical news. Truth is, none of that happened. Earnings reports have been moderate and inconsistent, economic data has been nothing if not poor, and the geopolitical condition has not changed one whit since Wednesday.

The rally was all concocted and executed by sellers of size, using hyperventilating computer algos which control more than 90% of the trading in the Wall Street casino. It is neither a fair market nor a free market, nor much of a market at all. There hasn't been true price discovery for a long time, at least since March of 2009, when the FASB suspended mark-to-market accounting and the Federal Reserve - in cahoots with the various central banks of Europe, China and Japan - went on an asset-buying binge and slashed the federal funds interest rate to zero.

The market of today is nothing like the one that worked in the heyday of Wall Street. This one is a rotting corpse, overseen by undertakers from the Fed and their lackeys in the large banks and brokerages, which control it, lock, stock and barrel. It is not a place to invest. It is a place to gamble, and gamblers almost always lose.

So it is that the Federal Reserve's reign over the world's finances will continue, with or without some occasional fireworks from the stock market.

The shortened week (markets were closed Monday for MLK Day) ended positive, the first in the three weeks thus far in 2016. However, unless this current rally remains intact and explosive to the upside next week, January will end in the red. By how much is anybody's guess, though the final two days of this week can rightfully be chalked up to options expiration, as doubles many a tenacious trader made money in a derivative fashion.

For the Week:
S&P: +26.57 (+1.41%)
Dow: +105.43 (+0.66%)
NASDAQ: +102.76 (+2.29%)

The Day's Closing Quotes:
S&P 500: 1,906.90, +37.91 (2.03%)
Dow: 16,093.51, +210.83 (1.33%)
NASDAQ: 4,591.18, +119.12 (2.66%)

Crude Oil 31.99 +8.33% Gold 1,097.50 -0.06% EUR/USD 1.08 -0.60% 10-Yr Bond 2.0480 +1.44% Corn 369.75 +0.75% Copper 2.00 +0.28% Silver 14.06 -0.24% Natural Gas 2.14 +0.05% Russell 2000 1,020.77 +2.35% VIX 22.34 -16.30% BATS 1000 20,303.38 +1.95% GBP/USD 1.4264 +0.34% USD/JPY 118.7715 +0.79%
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Stocks Bounce After Draghi Jawboning But Finish Poorly

For the most part, stocks were better behaved on Thursday than they have been almost any day in this new year, but that's hardly any consolation for investors and holders of 401k products, who have seen roughly 10% of their portfolios wiped out over the better part of the past three weeks.

European Central Bank Chairman, Mario Draghi, made brief headlines prior to the US market open, hinting to anybody within earshot that the ECB would review its policy in March. Market watchers, or, more specifically, alogrithms which control the direction of trading these days, took that to be a positive sign, so stocks flow higher and remained in positive territory for the entire session.

European stocks also finished green, though Asian markets had spooked the altos earlier, with the Shangai Stock Exchange down more than three percent, to 2880, its lowest level in over a year. The Nikkei shed another 2.5% and the Hang Seng was down nearly two percent.

While Draghi's comments to the press may have soothed some nerves for now, markets remain under pressure and without upside catalysts. The world is entering what appears to be a prolonged decline, prompted by years of overfunding of easy money by central banks globally.

With options expiring on Friday, both bulls and bears have been well-served this week. The closing session for the week may be on the tame side, if only due to stocks being overextended short-term to the downside and general exhaustion, though longer term, earnings of companies reporting thus far don't seem to hold much promise for a quick, lasting rebound.

If there was any disappointment on the day, it was into the close, which was unremarkably weak, the NASDAQ finishing within a hair's breath of going down the tubes.

Today's closing figures:
S&P 500: 1,868.99, +9.66 (0.52%)
Dow: 15,882.68, +115.94 (0.74%)
NASDAQ: 4,472.06, +0.37 (0.01%)

Crude Oil 29.70 +4.76% Gold 1,100.80 -0.49% EUR/USD 1.0876 -0.14% 10-Yr Bond 2.0190 +1.76% Corn 367.50 -0.34% Copper 1.99 +1.58% Silver 14.10 -0.39% Natural Gas 2.15 +1.61% Russell 2000 997.34 -0.20% VIX 26.69 -3.26% BATS 1000 19,915.85 +0.62% GBP/USD 1.4221 +0.23% USD/JPY 117.7250 +0.67%

This Crash Has Been Interrupted... for now

While the world's richest and most-influential types were sipping Valpolicella, stuffing themselves full of petit fours at the World Economic Forum in Davos, markets around the world were in turmoil.

Wednesday saw Asian markets fall completely out of bed, with the Nikkei falling into bear market territory for the first time, and Hong Knog's Hang Seng Index off by nearly 750 points and four percent. For a change, it wasn't the Shanghai SSE leading the way. It was down a mere one percent.

Spilling over into the European session, the feeling continued, just as it had almost every day of the new year. The Dax was a relative out-performer, with the German shares off just 2.82%, better, by comparison, than the FTSE 100 (-3.46) and the CAC 40 (-3.45). In effect, the day was a massive loss for holders of European stocks.

In the US, stocks were slammed at the opening bell, a knee-jerk reaction to the worldwide carnage, and the three major indices continued lower until just after noon, with the Dow recording a loss of 566 points.

But, all of a sudden, something changed. The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ all began moving the other way, as if somebody had turned a loose screw or flipped a faulty switch, metaphors which may be closer to the truth than anyone would admit to, in the age of HFT and sophisticated algos.

The afternoon was all about erasing the embarrassment of the morning session, and it was done with considerable gusto and untold amounts of money from god-know-whom-or-where. The NASDAQ erased a 125-point decline, moving steadily higher to edge into positive territory in the final hour, though it could not hold onto gains, falling back into the red in the final 20 minutes of trading.

The losses in the other two indices were a little stickier, though the Dow improved dramatically, finishing down by just short of 250 points. The S&P lost 22.

So, what happened? Nothing, really, except that short sellers took profits midday, then sat back and counted their money, supposedly. The smart money - and there always is smart money - is currently on red. And it's going to stay there until the selling stops, which, if the past two weeks are any indication, won't be any time soon.

For instance, the Dow still has 1200 points to get to bear market territory. The NASDAQ and S&P are similarly down about 15% from their highs (last May) and will need a little more time. Don't be surprised if there's a snap-back rally with some ferocity over the next two days as options expire on Friday.

What may be of more technical interest (no pun intended) is the yield on the ten-year note, which closed today under 2.00% for the first time in nearly a year. Following the federal funds rate hike in December, rates were supposed to rise. They've gone in the opposite direction, to the Fed's dismay. Look for the Federal Reserve to call an emergency meeting in the not-so-distant future if the selling doesn't abate shortly.

S&P 500: 1,859.33, -22.00 (1.17%)
Dow: 15,766.74, -249.28 (1.56%)
NASDSAQ: 4,471.69, -5.26 (0.12%)

Crude Oil 26.76 -5.97% Gold 1,101.20 +1.11% EUR/USD 1.0891 -0.18% 10-Yr Bond 1.9840 -2.51% Corn 368.00 +0.07% Copper 1.98 +0.13% Silver 14.17 +0.35% Natural Gas 2.14 +2.58% Russell 2000 999.31 +0.45% VIX 27.59 +5.91% BATS 1000 19,792.43 -1.24% GBP/USD 1.4193 +0.22% USD/JPY 116.9350 -0.60%

Stocks Bounce, But Rally Is Short-Lived Following MLK Holiday

Oddly buoyed by bad data out of China (missed GDP estimates at 6.9%), stocks made a half-hearted attempt to stem some of the losses it took in the first two weeks of the year, rising by about one percent across the three major indices early, but the rally could not find its legs and sellers soon took over, sending the NASDAQ into negative territory for the ninth time in 11 sessions this year.

While there's still eight trading days remaining in the month, the January Barometer merits mention at this juncture if only because the month, as a whole, seems to be lost.

Readers will be reminded that the January Barometer - which posits that "as goes January, so goes the year" - has a roughly 90% correlation. The only question now for traders seems to be not whether the year of 2016 will be a bad one, but just how bad it will end.

Indications continue to suggest that the correction is far from over and the potential of an outright bear market is only being kept off the table due to some select large cap stocks. 65% of stocks on the S&P 500 are already in a bear market, i.e., off 20% or more, and the Russell 2000 is down more than 20% from previous highs.

Equities may have gotten a one-day reprieve from some non-committal buyers of the dip, but that strategy seems to have worn out its welcome. Seasoned traders are becoming more and more risk-averse, seeking the safety of large caps with steady dividends, strong balance sheets (there aren't many), and, as the 10-year-note is telling us quite plainly, fixed income investments.

Today's volatility included a 270-point round trip for the Dow, which was down more than 100 points midday. Wednesday may prove more challenging as markets approach the traditional options expiry on the third Friday of the month, at the end of the current week.

Today's Closing Quotes:
S&P 500: 1,881.33, +1.00 (0.05%)
Dow: 16,016.02, +27.94 (0.17%)
NASADAQ: 4,476.95, -11.47 (0.26%)

Crude Oil 28.59 -2.82% Gold 1,090.70 +0.01% EUR/USD 1.0908 +0.17% 10-Yr Bond 2.0350 +0.10% Corn 368.50 +1.45% Copper 1.97 +1.11% Silver 14.07 +1.29% Natural Gas 2.08 -0.76% Russell 2000 994.87 -1.28% VIX 26.05 -3.59% BATS 1000 20,041.25 -0.13% GBP/USD 1.4160 -0.66% USD/JPY 117.6320 +0.18%

Stocks Slammed Globally, S&P Under 1900; Dow Drops Below 16,000

Wall Street is, at last, getting the just desserts from seven years of Fed policies that have funneled trillions of dollars into the hands of the wealthiest people in the country.

The kicker is that the American public, the 65-70% that still works for a living, are going to get the worst of it.

Today's carnage in US equity markets was not an isolated event by any means. It began years ago, but, in its most current manifestation, the collapse began in China last night, when the SSE fell nearly 5% in its last session of the week.

The contagious selling fever spilled over into European markets, with the DAX, CAC-40, and FTSE-100 ending the day down by 2.54%, 2.38% and 1.93%, respectively.

Prior to markets opening in the US, however, there was a spate of poor economic data released.

Retail sales for December came in at -0.1. PPI went negative (deflation) in December, at -0.2%. Empire Manufacturing (a gauge for economic activity in the NY Fed district, collapsed from a reading of -6.2 in December, to a ghastly -19.4 in January.

Industrial Production fell 0.4%. Capacity Utilization slumped to 76.5%.

Then came the news from Wal-Mart that they would be closing 269 stores this year, with 154 of them in the United States. The full list of Wal-Mart store closings can be seen here.

By the time markets actually opened at 9:30 am ET, futures were showing the Dow down by more than 350 points and the indices all fell off a cliff at the sound of the opening bell.

By midday, the Dow was down more than 500 points, the NASDAQ had shed close to 150, and the S&P was sporting losses of more than 50 points.

While today's crashing stock indices were certainly bloody, they weren't even close to the 10 worst one-day Dow declines of all time, so all is not lost.

As the session wore on, the signs of a failing economy - both here in the US and globally - were everywhere. The 10-year note fell briefly below 2.00%. With 1/2 hour left to go, declining issues were leading advancers roughly 6:1. Intel (INTC) was down nine percent. Citigroup (C) was posting a 6% loss; Microsoft (MSFT) was clinging to a four percent downside. Bank of America (BAC), which was pushing 17 two weeks ago, sliced through 15 and was trading in the range of 14.40, down 4.0% on the day.

With more companies reporting Q4 and annual earnings next week, the action this week and today might just be an appetizer for what's about to come, and that might be a recession, collapsing corporate earnings, liquidations, bankruptcies and the wholesale destruction of pension funds - heavily invested in equities - nationwide.

For its part, the Fed trotted out William Dudley, president of the NY Fed and vice chairman of the FOMc, who noted that negative rates could be considered in light of the recent market volatility. His tongue-lapping of the markets didn't seem to carry much weight. Investors were only interested in getting out and limiting the damage prior to the long weekend.

The day's closing prices:
S&P 500: 1,880.28, -41.56 (2.16%)
Dow: 15,988.08, -390.97 (2.39%)
NASDAQ: 4,488.42, -126.59 (2.74%)

Crude Oil 29.67 -4.90% Gold 1,088.90 +1.43% EUR/USD 1.0920 +0.53% 10-Yr Bond 2.03 -3.10% Corn 362.50 +1.26% Copper 1.95 -1.57% Silver 13.90 +1.14% Natural Gas 2.10 -1.73% Russell 2000 1,005.44 -1.97% VIX 27.70 +15.66% BATS 1000 20,066.91 -1.99% GBP/USD 1.4255 -1.13% USD/JPY 117.0050 -0.97%

For the week:
S&P: -41.76 (-2.17)
Dow: -358.71 (-2.19)
NASDAQ: -155.21 (-3.34)

Rally Falls Short in Final Hour; NASDAQ Still Down for the Week; Investors Not Biting on FANGs

Of the hardest hit stocks, many of them, including some of the tech all-stars, such as Facebook (FB), Amazon.com (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Alphabet (Google, GOOG), otherwise known as the FANGs have been mercilessly sold off since December, and, likely, for good reason.

Overall, their price-earnings ratios are stratospheric, they don't actually make anything, Amazon, in particular, rarely turns a profit, and they don't offer dividends, only appreciation in stock price as their sole saving grace.

Take away the increasing stock price and what have you got? Losses as far as the eye can see, and traders have recently shied and run away from these four horsemen of the internet.

The big winner today was Facebook, which gained nearly three percent, but is still down close to 10% overall. The others didn't fare quite so well. Amazon gained close to 2%, though it is still down over 12% since December 30. Netflix added back just 0.5%, and is down close to 20% since highs made the first week of December. Google, the best of the bunch, with regular profits and solid earnings quarter after quarter, gained 2% and is only down about 8% since after Christmas.

Fourth quarter earnings are coming due for the bunch of them, and market participants will be eager to note any difficulties experienced during the holiday period, though Amazon could surprise, as more and more people flocked to the web for holiday shopping in the past year.

Otherwise, it was a hopeful day on Wall Street, though the massive rally sparked by St. Louis Fed governor James Bullard's comments that the low price of oil was an impediment to the Fed's 2% inflation target, and thus, the Fed may "rethink" its interest rate hike policy for 2016.

While lower oil - and consequently gas - prices are good for everyone except possibly the oil companies and the Fed, Bullard's jawboning served to send the markets soaring on the day, wiping out much of Wednesday's steep losses.

However, the rally fell short in the final hour, as traders exhausted their buying optimism.

Not much should be made from today's trade. Stocks are still moribund and stuck well below all-time highs. The hope of making back the losses of the past two weeks is slim, and anyone thinking the indices will retrace all the way back to all-time highs made in May 2015 is whistling past the grave.

Unless earnings for the fourth quarter are utterly surprising to the upside, expect the pattern of wild swings to continue. Global markets are still in trouble, as is the worldwide currency crisis, reaching from Japan to China, Australia, Europe and even to Canada, where the looney has lost significantly to the dollar due to the downturn in the price of oil.

It's indeed unfortunate that so many keys of economics are locked to the price of oil, because, by most measures, the price is going to stay low or lower for an extended period of time, pushing all other prices down with it. At the apex of the deflationary spiral, oil, which powers more than just machines, pushes down prices for virtually all products, from manufactured to agricultural.

The rally today erased the loss for the week on the Dow, left the S&P virtually unchanged, and the NASDAQ with a 26-point loss. Friday will determine whether the week ends with a positive or negative tone.

The day's action:
S&P 500: 1,921.84, +31.56 (1.67%)
Dow: 16,379.05, +227.64 (1.41%)
NASDAQ: 4,615.00, +88.94 (1.97%)

Crude Oil 31.09 +2.00% Gold 1,077.20 -0.91% EUR/USD 1.0867 -0.14% 10-Yr Bond 2.0980 +1.55% Corn 358.25 +0.07% Copper 1.98 +1.12% Silver 13.85 -2.20% Natural Gas 2.14 -5.69% Russell 2000 1,025.67 +1.53% VIX 23.95 -5.04% BATS 1000 20,474.30 +1.64% GBP/USD 1.4412 -0.07% USD/JPY 118.0400 +0.34%

Stocks Massacred Again; S&P Below 1900; Dow Sheds Over 1200 Points in 2016

Another day, another 350+ point loss on the Dow.

There isn't much to say about this kind of result except that it isn't showing any sign of abating. It's what happens when you throw trillions of dollars for speculators to over-leverage on risk assets of all manner and then shut off the free money supply tap.

That's exactly what the Fed did on December 16, when they decided that the economy was strong enough - and gaining momentum - to withstand a rate hike. Dismissing the fact that it was only 25 basis points, the Fed, which has been wrong on everything from the effects of QE and ZIRP to employment, housing and growth, moved at the wrong time. The business cycle had already turned negative; it was exhausted and the consumer had been tapped out.

Not that the consequent decline in stocks was solely the fault of the Federal Reserve, no, the government, spending and taxing and taxing and spending the United States into 19 trillion dollars of unpayable debt, has had an equal hand in the destruction of American business enterprise.

Of course, the demise of the industrial giant wasn't all done overnight. It's taken decades of mismanagement to destroy the American dream and the destroyers aren't done yet. Stock market declines aren't the end of the road, either. Rather, they're just a symptom of the underlying malaise that will be unleashed full force as this election year unwinds.

Stocks are just the visible part of the credit bubble. The other parts consist of moving parts of underfunded pensions, bankrupt trust funds, the fraud of Obamacare, the welfare system, the education complex, military overspending, and a plethora of other wasteful programs funded by the unaware, eyes-shut, American public.

So, the start of 2016 isn't going to be anything monumental, despite the Dow losing 1273.62 in just the first eight trading sessions of the year. Bear in mind that the Dow has to lose roughly another 1500 points (to 14,679) before it's officially a bear market, and there's little doubt that this decline will eventually become a bear market with further downside from there.

No, the first few weeks of January, 2016 will likely be referred to as the "good old days," before the tsunami of deflation finally took hold of the global economy and would not let go. These will be recalled as the time before government fraud and waste was still acceptable, before we realized that unemployment wasn't really five percent, but 15%, or 20%, or more.

Today's trading was nothing short of a waterfall event. The main indices were up at the open, and in a classic bear market pattern, sold off and were negative within the first hour of the session. The Dow, which lost nearly 365 points, wasn't even the worst of it. In fact, on a percentage basis, it was the best of the three. The S&P lopped off 2.5%, the NASDAQ withstood a whopping 3.41% decline.

The 10-year note traded down to 2.05% and will be sporting a one-handle soon, possibly by the end of this week.

This isn't pretty. If you haven't gotten out of the way and out of stocks by now, and into cash or gold or silver, you have nobody to blame but your own greedy self.

Good luck winning the lottery, because your equity holdings are about to be wiped from the face of the earth.

Today's Sad Story
S&P 500: 1,890.28, -48.40 (2.50%)
Dow: 16,151.41, -364.81 (2.21%)
NASDAQ: 4,526.06, -159.85 (3.41%)

Crude Oil 30.40 -0.13% Gold 1,093.80 +0.79% EUR/USD 1.0881 +0.30% 10-Yr Bond 2.0660 -1.71% Corn 358.75 +0.56% Copper 1.95 -0.26% Silver 14.15 +2.90% Natural Gas 2.28 +1.20% Russell 2000 1,010.19 -3.30% VIX 25.22 +12.24% BATS 1000 20,143.62 -2.36% GBP/USD 1.4413 -0.15% USD/JPY 117.7130
1273.62

Stocks (and Oil) Can't Catch a Break

It was another ugly day on Wall Street, not because stocks finished higher, but because of how they got there.

Right out of the gate, the major averages were soaring, but all of the early gains were wiped away shortly after 11:00 am. Stocks zig-zagged through the midday, going positive, then negative, and, finally, just after 2:00 pm, decided that upwards would be the most-favored path, so the bid was in.

However, prior to that late-afternoon spike, there were more than a fair share of winners and losers, most of them being of the losing variety. Of the top ten most actives, nine of them were in the red, even with the indices moving decidedly positive. Only Apple (AAPL) was a winner, for reasons of which nobody could rightfully discern.

Of those nine losers, eight of them were energy or materials-related. The oddball in the group was Bank of America (BAC), which continues to shed market cap and is now in the early running for dog stock of the year (but, it's early, though since it's a bank, our money is on them).

Energy and material stocks were actively trending lower because of the all-too-obvious drop in the price of crude oil and just about anything else that falls into the commodity sphere. Oil continued to decline, price-wise, today reaching below $30/barrel for WTI crude as inventories rose and demand fell, giving the slick stuff a double whammy of bad news.

On the NYSE, losers and winners were nearly even, and there the disparity between the new highs (9) and new lows (564) was cause for alarm. On the NASDAQ, a similar story was unfolding, though breadth was slightly better. New highs numbered only 12, with 352 hitting new lows. That's where the real story is taking place. There are far too few stocks leading the market (large caps) and far too many small and mid-caps weighing it down.

These imbalances have much to do with the ongoing debate over wealth inequality. The policies of the Fed not only have benefitted the richest individuals in the society, they've also been particularly advantageous to the larger, better-established listed companies. The big firms have better access to big money for stock buybacks, primarily, while the smaller firms languish in the all-too-real mundane world where profits matter and cost-cutting continues.

Smaller firms have a harder time making their numbers in a slumping economy and are first hit when business begins to slide, or, at least that's how the current crop of traders has been conditioned. Slumping oil prices has morphed into an all-around slap-down of commodities in general, which, in normal times would be good for business, but today the low prices for everything from aluminum to copper to zinc has spread over to consumer goods, most of which are manufactured overseas in sweatshops at minimal cost.

The other side of the equation, that being consumer demand, has been hollowed out by years of fleecing by giant corporations and the Fed's insistence that nobody earn a dime in interest. While Wall Street could afford to speculate and spend because the spigot was wide open, Main Street tightened its belt until consumers are able to only afford the bare necessities after paying more in taxes, fees, credit card interest, student loans and, especially, health care. If there's one culprit upon which most of the blame can be laid for the rottenness of the general economy, it has to be the misappropriately-named Affordable Care Act, which acted as a wealth transfer mechanism from the pockets of ordinary citizens into the health care morass of hospitals, providers, big pharma and insurance companies. It has drained the economy of whatever excess had been created by reduced gas and fuel prices.

Today's closing quotes:
S&P 500: 1,938.68, +15.01 (0.78%)
Dow: 16,516.22, +117.65 (0.72%)
NASDAQ: 4,685.92, +47.93 (1.03%)

Crude Oil 30.57 -2.67% Gold 1,086.00 -0.93% EUR/USD 1.0849 +0.01% 10-Yr Bond 2.1020 -2.59% Corn 358.00 +0.35% Copper 1.96 -0.63% Silver 13.77 -0.69% Natural Gas 2.26 -5.68% Russell 2000 1,044.70 +0.27% VIX 22.47 -7.53% BATS 1000 20,630.49 +0.55% GBP/USD 1.4440 +0.04% USD/JPY 117.7805 +0.04%

Perception Trumps Reality and Why You Should Not Trade Stocks

A large part of investing consists of paying attention to details. It's not enough to know what a certain company or industry is experiencing over a short-term basis, but to examine the details and to put those details into historic perspective.

It is in this light that today's presentation will advise anyone and everyone to distrust the mainstream media reports of the economy in general, and often, even the specific.

Back in the early portion of this century, word began circulating about a mysterious group called the Plunge Protection Team (PPT for short), which had the extraordinary power of pulling the entire equity market out of a crash, thus restoring confidence to traders and investors.

For a long time, people who believed that the PPT existed at all and was causing the wild fluctuations seen in the summer of 2001 and 2002, were dismissed as conspiracy nuts and tin-foil hat wearers. However, the PPT had been exposed beforehand, and it was indeed real. Its true name was the Working Group on Financial Markets, and it was created via an executive order 12631, signed on March 18, 1988 by US President Ronald Reagan, largely in response to the market turmoil that resulted in a 22% drop on October 19, 1987.

The PPT is real, though current manipulators may not exactly match the same original cast of characters, there is still a shadowy group of government people making sure the equity markets don't crash, or, at the very least, they enter the market to manifest a desired outcome.

Just in case you still don't believe in the power of the PPT, or that the market can be massively manipulated on a short-term (leading to long-term) basis, consider that today from 3:17 to 3:38 pm ET, a span of a mere 21 minutes, the Dow Jones Industrials jumped from 16,261.93 to 16.444.04. That's 182.11 points, a number that would be exceptional (a better than 1% gain) for an entire session.

Thus, the Dow - and along with it, the S&P and NASDAQ - went from near the day's lows to modestly positive, nearing the close of the session. These heady days, as perception exceeds reality by a longshot, that result will be precisely ONLY what the mainstream media reports. Not that markets were in turmoil and extending losses from last week, or, that market conviction suddenly changed dramatically, but ONLY that stocks were up on the day. All is well. Nothing to see here. Move along.

That there are government entities meddling in what used to be fair, honest and open markets should be enough to discourage just about any thinking person to not only abhor the practice of manipulation, but to remove themselves and their money from the fraud that is Wall Street, because, if government operators can make the market go up, they have an equal power to make it go down, or up-then-down or whatever they wish it to be.

In essence, stock markets are not fair and open and free anymore, and haven't been for quite some time. Most stocks these days are wildly overvalued, and for good reason. The retirements of millions of Americans are tied to stocks. Not only that, but the entire economy of the planet is tethered, one way or another, to the US equity markets. There are sovereign wealth funds, trust funds, hedge funds, mutual funds and all other manner of funds, ETFs and investment vehicles that are inexorably tied to the success or failure of stocks.

Suppose there is a massive bear market in stocks, like we witnessed in 2000, and again in 2008. People panic. They sell. But that's old news. People don't move markets any more. Computers do, and those are controlled by the barons of Wall Street, the banks and brokerage firms.

Thus, the PPT does not have to exist at all anymore. There only needs to be a mechanism for all the main traders to move at once in the same direction, and that mechanism is probably already in place, has been used in the past, is being used presently and will be used in the future, either to make stocks cheaper (down) or more expensive (up). Either way, the trading firms will have the upper hand, advance notice and the blessing of the federal government.

US markets are not what they appear to be. For instance, they are much more thinly traded than ever, by fewer participants, many of whom are nefarious, criminal and immoral. Individual investors would likely be better off stuffing cash into a mattress, buying gold or silver, or trading comic books, baseball cards, Beanie Babies or other collectibles. Realistically, the collectible market is very robust and smart individuals can actually make a good living on places like eBay or Craigslist. The art market is also very good, especially for rarities.

Leave the stock market to professionals. If you like to gamble, try the lottery, the horses, or fantasy sports betting, because the Dow Jones Industrials, the S&P, the NASDAQ and the NYSE have become nothing more than sophisticated casinos, operating without gaming licenses, and the house always wins.

Always.

Today's closing quotes:
S&P 500: 1,923.67, +1.64 (0.09%)
Dow: 16,398.57, +52.12 (0.32%)
NASDAQ: 4,637.99, -5.64 (0.12%)

Crude Oil 31.31 -5.58% Gold 1,095.60 -0.21% EUR/USD 1.0855 -0.60% 10-Yr Bond 2.1580 +1.31% Corn 351.25 -1.61% Copper 1.97 -2.52% Silver 13.85 -0.49% Natural Gas 2.39 -3.16% Russell 2000 1,041.90 -0.41% VIX 24.30 -10.03% BATS 1000 20,518.11 -0.16% GBP/USD 1.4540 +0.22% USD/JPY 117.7050 +0.79%

It's Not China; Dow Dumps 1000 Points in First Week of 2016

Thursday night in the US - Friday morning in the People's Republic of China - all eyes were glued to the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), to see whether Chinese authorities' plan to suspend their rules on circuit breakers - a fifteen minute pause on a 5% loss, and closing for the day should a 7% loss occur - would hold stocks up or allow massive dumping of overpriced equities.

Disappointing many who would relish the thought of a worldwide collapse of the global stock Ponzi scheme, Chinese traders showed great restraint and state-owned companies bought equities on a wholesale basis, averting a rout in the market by posting a gain of nearly two percent.

It didn't do much good to support the overwhelming narrative of the mainstream press in Europe and the United States, as shares across the continent fell by 1.5% on average across the largest bourses, and the FTSE 100 in Great Britain shedding 0.70%.

In the US, hopes were high when the BLS announced a non-farm payroll increase of 292,000 jobs for December, above even the most aggressive estimates.

The markets didn't care.

Stocks showed modest gains across the three major averages at the open, but the narrative - and the indices - failed to produce positive results. By the end of Friday's session, the S&P joined the Dow and NASDAQ in correction territory, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing one of the worst weekly performances of all time, mirroring the collapse in August by shedding over 1000 points.

It was a horrific start to the new year, with the major averages shedding more than 6% on the week, the Dow posting triple-digit losses on four of the five days, the NASDAQ dropping by more than 7%.

The results for the week were downright depressing, the worst weekly start to a new year in the history of US exchanges:

S&P 500: -121.94 (-5.97)
Dow: -1079.12 (-6.19)
NASDAQ: -363.78 (-7.26)

On the day:
S&P 500: 1,922.02, -21.07 (1.08%)
Dow: 16,346.18, -167.92 (1.02%)
NASDAQ: 4,643.63, -45.79 (0.98%)

Crude Oil 33.09 -0.54% Gold 1,102.30 -0.50% EUR/USD 1.0921 -0.01% 10-Yr Bond 2.13 -1.07% Corn 356.25 +0.92% Copper 2.02 -0.25% Silver 13.94 -2.82% Natural Gas 2.49 +4.53% Russell 2000 1,048.78 -1.48% VIX 26.08 +4.36% BATS 1000 20,550.58 -1.01% GBP/USD 1.4524 -0.69% USD/JPY 117.51 -0.12%
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Slaughter On Wall Street: Stocks Whacked Again As China Markets Close Early; Macy's Lays Off Thousands

Sure, the economy is just fine.

That's what the pundits on Bloomberg and CNBC would have you believe.

So, if everything is so darn good, why is Macy's - which has over 700 stores in the US - closing 40 stores and laying off 4,500 employees?

And why did the NASDAQ and the Dow close the day in correction territory (down 10% from high) today, with the S&P not far off?

People who host shows and are guests on TV want you to believe it's all China's fault. Over on mainland China, their stock markets closed early for the second time this year. That's twice in four days that circuit breakers have been triggered. A 7% selloff causes the market to shut down. Those are their rules. Or, rather, those were their rules.

Early in the US session, Chinese authorities announced that they were suspending the circuit-breaker rule, so their stock markets may fall a lot deeper tomorrow than a mere 7% before everything in the People's Republic goes down the drain.

It's not China's fault. It's the fault of the Fed, the government (for looking the other way and accepting bribes from corporations and banks), and the greed of Wall Street. It's also the fault of smart people taking their money out of the rigged casino, aka Wall Street, before it all vanishes, like it did in 2000, or 2008.

Also, Yahoo! is laying off 1000 employees as part of their reorganization plan. One employee that isn't being let go, but should, is CEO Marissa Mayer, of whom Money Daily said years ago was nothing but a wannabe, a poser, with no measurable skills for running a company.

Yes, the economy is not good, Wall Street and the government is run by a gang of crooks, and, incidentally, those highly-paid CEOs, like Ms. Mayer, should be in bread lines with the rest of the people being let go, because they're incompetent.

America, a once-great country, is going down the tubes, and in a big hurry. The culprit is not some foreign entity, terrorism, guns or aliens. The reasons can be found all over the country. Greedy lawyers, greedier bankers, corrupt government officials, incompetent business leaders, and, interwoven into the fabric of this country, placid, placated, ill-educated, preoccupied, self-engrossed people who vote (or don't) in elections and think they've done their part are all part of the problem, and not part of the solution.

But, people could be the solution. If people stopped making poor decisions, stopped listening to people in authority positions, and started taking responsibility for their own lives, rather than hoping for handouts from an uncle sugar government, people could solve their problems on their own.

The concept of self-reliance has been largely lost in America, but, herms hoping it's going to make a comeback when people wise up to the antics of politicians who don't deliver on their promises and kick them to the curb, where they belong.

There are lots of problems in this country that people could solve on their own if they took charge of their own lives. That, truthfully, may be asking for too much. We've wasted too much time in this country and waited too long for the governing class to do the right thing. Now, it may be too late, and we'll all just have to fend for ourselves.

Actually, that may not be too bad a thing.

The day on wall Street was not pretty, with major indices taking a third huge loss in four days. The Dow Industrials are down nearly 1000 points so far this year, putting 2016 already 6% in the red for even the safest stocks. Averages were lower all day, with no signs of rallies, and, perhaps more telling than anything, there was no snap-back at 3:30 on short covering, which has been the norm of late.

As noted by the quotes below, WTI crude oil finished with a 33 handle, a number not seen in the oil pits in 12 years. Gold and silver have broken out of moribund ranges, though holding and advancing from these levels may be difficult, as central banks collude to keep currency that may compete with the almighty dollar, euro or yen at undesirable levels.

What's undeniable about the gold and silver rigging is that it is unsustainable long-term, though central banks and their henchmen in the COMEX have managed to keep sending the prices of precious metals lower for nearly five full years. With stocks potentially falling out of favor, bonds, cash and PMs may appear to be the best bets with which to ride out a currency storm, a scenario that could be occurring in real time as the dollar/yen carry trade continues to unwind.

There is chaos everywhere, and, for the final trading day of the new year's first week, two important developments will be how the Chinese markets fare and US non-farm payroll data for December, due for release at 8:30 am ET.

Closing prices for Thursday, January 7, 2016
S&P 500: 1,943.09, -47.17 (2.37%)
Dow: 16,514.10, -392.41 (2.32%)
NASDAQ, 4,689.43, -146.34 (3.03%)

Crude Oil 33.21 -2.24% Gold 1,109.20 +1.58% EUR/USD 1.0929 +1.41% 10-Yr Bond 2.1530 -1.10% Corn 352.00 -0.35% Copper 2.02 -3.16% Silver 14.32 +2.50% Natural Gas 2.37 +4.46% Russell 2000 1,064.57 -2.72% VIX 24.99 +21.37% BATS 1000 20,761.26 -2.29% GBP/USD 1.4618 -0.05% USD/JPY 117.5480 -0.80%
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The End? Stocks Slammed Again; Economic Prospects for 2016 Appear Grim

What should have happened in 2008-09 may be beginning to happen now, in 2016. Investors should take losses, companies should go broke, and government apologists should have a "come to Jesus" moment and admit that they've been lying about the recovery for years.

There is and there has been no recovery. GDP has been stuck between one-and-a-half and two-and-a-half percent since the financial crisis (and that's if you believe government accounting). 2015 will be fortunate to register at two percent growth.

Meanwhile, wages are stagnant and falling, 95 million able-bodied Americans are not officially counted as part of the workforce. The middle class has been hollowed out by Wall Street greed, government over-taxation, and unrealistic government salaries and pensions that suck the life out of local and state budgets.

The jobs that made America great have long gone, shipped overseas to China and elsewhere, and now we are exacerbating our pitiful condition by allowing in more immigrants - legal and illegal - taking away the few jobs left for natural-born citizens.

Baby boomers are retiring, replaced by their dumbed-down progeny. Our national debt of nearly $19 trillion - and growing - is a universal disgrace. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve, in cahoots with the shiftless Treasury Department, debases our currency by print a full 40% of government expenditures.

The federal government wants to grab our guns, the states want to charge us rent - in the form of property taxes - on the property we own, and neither of them can balance their books. The American public is at a breaking point, through with political correctness, suspicious of a government that spies upon us, regulates us, lies to us and sends our kids to die in useless wars which are never won. The controlled mainstream media propagandizes and cajoles anyone who doesn't align properly with the official corporate-government-military line.

Truly, in the short history of our Republic, we are on the cusp of complete breakdown in finance, education, morals, and decency.

And, while the blame can be placed on the people itself, because we voted for the spineless, unaccountable elected officials who have led us to this point, it should fall on the shoulders of those doing the governing, the legislating, the ones who are routinely bribed to pass legislation that favors corporations over people, banks over homeowners, and diminishment of our rights and liberties over common sense.

Our current government is the most corrupt to ever inhabit the halls of congress and the White House, our state houses and our government mansions. Is it any wonder that only half of the people who can vote, do vote?

Wall Street insiders hold all the cards, and they're gradually folding them. The Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ were all lower by massive amounts again today, for the second time in three this year. If this is a portent of what's ahead for the rest of the year, the ride may not be bumpy at all, merely a slide into the mediocrity created by greed, failed, moronic policies of the Federal Reserve, all with the implicit consent of the government, a government that is not worth the support of the people.

The slow collapse of stocks that has been on display the first week of this year has already been gaining steam since prior to last summer. Stocks peaked in late May and are 6-8% lower (depending on which index you choose) from their inflated high points. The Dow is down nearly 500 points in just three days this year and more than 850 points since the Fed decided, in their insipid, desperate desire, to raise interest rates mid-December.

Manufacturing, as measured by the ISM, has shown contraction for two consecutive months. US Services PMI dropped to 54.3 - the lowest since January 2015. ISM Services fell to 55.3, the lowest level since March 2014.

US factory orders for November fell 4.2% year-over-year, the 13th consecutive monthly drop. We are on the verge of a recession, in the middle of a depression. The emperor has no clothes and this time, with federal funds rates straining to hold between 0.25 and 0.50%, there is no place to hide.

If this isn't the end, it's getting pretty close. According to the most widely-accepted charting methods, stocks will enter a correction phase within a month, if not sooner. Corporate profits are falling, as companies cannot concoct any more accounting tricks to show even meager profits. Quarterly results are due out over the next three to four weeks and prospects for corporate earnings are poor. For retailers, energy stocks and consumer goods producers, the results - stemming from missing expectations for the holiday season and an oversupply of crude oil and distillates - might be devastating.

Stores are being shuttered in malls across the country and with them, marginal jobs which will not come back. The only bright spots are that inflation is nil, gasoline is cheap, and the winter, thus far, has been mild, at least in the heavily-populated Northeast.

Somehow, America will survive. However, the America of 2016 is a far cry from what the country was just 30 years ago, and a dim representation of what our Founding Fathers conceived.

S&P 500: 1,990.26, -26.45 (1.31%)
Dow: 16,906.51, -252.15 (1.47%)
NASDAQ: 4,835.76, -55.67 (1.14%)

Stocks Retrace Lows, End Positive; Gold At Inflection Point

There wasn't much to talk about on the second trading day of 2016, except that stocks managed not to fall for the second consecutive day, thanks to late-day jacking by people who apparently haven't yet gotten the memo that Buying the Dip is so 2012-2015.

Rather than investors seeking bargains, today's late action was more or less a bailout by the NY Fed or the PPT (maybe the same entity) lest people get the idea that the markets are rigged and uncertain.

Surely, economic data and downgrades of the S&P by Citi and the US economy by Duetsche Bank couldn't support the irrational failing that typified the trading on the session.

All three major indices ended the day happily in the green after retracing their lows, giving the CNBC and Bloomberg talking heads a talking point to the effect of "bouncing off yesterday's lows" and being oversold and other such rubbish that is the mainstay of financial (sic) journalism these days.

Markets are likely to gyrate around until Friday, when December non-farm payrolls are announced. In the meantime, the ADP jobs survey kicks off tomorrow prior to the bell, a harbinger of things to come. It might be interesting enough to move markets a little, but probably not by much.

More interesting was the trade in WTI crude. The slippery stuff moved under $36/barrel, finishing at $35.95. Silver ended up some change, closing the NY session at an even $14 per troy ounce. Gold also gained, ending in the US at the statistically signficant 1078.10, which is roughly the delineation between support and resistance. If stocks stumble again this week, watch the PMs take off, as they've been mired in a bear market for more than three years and are viciously oversold.

S&P 500: 2,016.71, +4.05 (0.20%)
Dow: 17,158.66, +9.72 (0.06%)
NASDAQ: 4,891.43, -11.66 (0.24%)

Can You Hear Me Now? MONEY DAILY Predictions Prove Prescient As Stocks Drop on First Trading Day of 2016

As 2015 drew to a close, Money Daily put forward a number of predictions for what 2016 would bring as pertaining to economies and financial markets.

While one day's trading cannot be considered anything more than market "noise," the historic sell-off of January 4 - the first trading day of the new year - proved to be the worst performance to start a year since 2008, and one of the top ten worst starts to a year in market history.

While stocks were down large in the US, they were worse in Asia and Europe. The Shanghai Composite was shaved by 6.9%, Japan's Nikkei tumbled nearly 600 points, a loss of 3.06%.

Germany's DAX was the hardest hit of Europe's majors, losing 4.28%. England's FTSE 100 fell 2.39; France's CAC-40 was down 2.47%.

In the US, most of the carnage was done by midday. Stocks drifted into the closing hour, and were boosted substantially off their lows by a face-ripping, short-covering rally in the last half hour of trading.

It was an unnerving beginning to a year which promises much in the way of surprises with limited upside for stocks, which have been and continue to be wildly overvalued.

Some of the bigger names were high on the list of losers. Netflix (NFLX) fell 3.86%; Alphabet (Google, GOOG) dropped 2.25%; Amazon was the biggest of the tech wrecks, dropping 38.90 points, a 5.76% loss.

WTI crude oil first rose, but came back to earth and was down for the day, finishing around 36.80 on the day.

S&P 500: 2,012.66, -31.28 (1.53%)
Dow: 17,148.94, -276.09 (1.58%)
NASDAQ: 4,903.09, -104.32 (2.08%)

Money Daily TacklesThe Best Of Wall Street With 2016 Predictions; The Big Fail: S&P, Dow Finish Lower for 2015

Stocks took it on the chin on the last trading day of 2015, and the S&P and Dow Industrials ended the year with losses. Only the NASDAQ showed a gain for the year.

Closing prices for December 31, 2015:

S&P 500

2,043.94

-19.42 (0.94%)

Dow

17,425.03

-178.84 (1.02%)

Nasdaq

5,007.41

-58.44 (1.15%)

That's a wrap for the year. Read on, because 2016 is going to be even more interesting.

Picks for 2016

Courtesy of Barron's, here are some of Wall Street's top strategists picks to click in 2016:

Note the groupthink among these masters of the universe posers.

Aside from Steven Auth's outrageous call for 2500 (it might be a typo) the target for the S&P 500 ranges from 2100 to 2250. The expected 2016 GDP is all in a range from 1.9% to 2.8%. These are not the brave and the bold, that's for sure.

So, since Wall Street analysts have decided to continue with the false narrative that all is well, Money Daily offers the following set-up for what figures to be a downright fascinating year.

Since it's a presidential election year and the past two which marked the end of an eight-year presidency (Bush replaced Clinton in 2000, Obama replaced Bush in 2008) both were near-disasters for equity traders, 2016 promises to be an explosive twelve months.

Now that you've seen theirs - which, by the way, don't vary much - here is what Money Daily believes will work in the coming year.

First, the equity markets will absolutely tank.

Stocks Take a Beating

While it would be foolhardy to predict where whole indices will be trading at the end of the year 2016, it may be more instructive to offer a timeline. Since the S&P and Dow haven't made new highs since May of 2015 and both ended the year lower than they closed out 2014, the table has been set for an absolute bear-fest in the opening quarter of the year.

As bears emerge from a short hibernation due to climate change (one of the warmest winters on record in the Northeastern US), they will be hungry to take down entire sectors of the market. Hardest hit will be consumer goods, financials, health care, technology and services. No sector will be spared, but the safest havens will be in basic materials and utilities. The best place of all to be will be largely in cash or bonds. The 10-year note is likely to rally strongly as people flee to safety, and, despite the best efforts of Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve to boost interest rates, the market will set the tone.

The major indices will be looking up at highs which will seem ridiculous by June. Taken on a monthly basis, January will see outright selling, putting the major indices into correction (-10%). February and March may be mild, but could be wild, depending on the direction of most of the well-followed indicators, like industrial production, capacity utilization, the various Fed surveys, factory orders, ISM manufacturing and services, and, of course, non-farm payrolls.

By April or May, the bloom will truly be off the rose, as first quarter GDP comes in below expectations or even shows up negative, the most likely culprit, warmer weather, as opposed to cold weather, which was blamed for the last two Q1 debacles.

Timing the return to a bear market can be tricky, so let it suffice to say that by June at the very latest, stocks will be down more than 20% overall, and the scare will be on.

At the bottom, which will be any time prior to election day, here's where Money Daily expects the major indices to be residing:

S&P 500: 1450
Dow: 12,400
NASDAQ: 3200

Bonds Will Be Wonderful

The 10-year note will trade higher from February through September, with the yield going below the two percent mark and staying there for an extended period, perhaps through the end of the year. Since stocks will offer only losses, lowered guidance and dividend cuts, the flight to bonds will be massive. The short end will be anathema; the 10-year and 30-year will be the bright spots.

GDP May Appear Recessionary

If 2016 results in any growth at all, it will be anemic, in the 1-1.5% range at best. With either the first and second or the second and third quarters putting up negative numbers, the odds for a true recession are high, and the Fed, without any interest rate cuts to counter the slack in the economy, will prove powerless.

The long look will be on currency collapse. After the massive gains in 2015 for the US dollar, that trade will likely reverse. Either that, or a global depression will be the order of the day.

Precious Metals Still Shine

While shunned with near-unaniminity on Wall Street, gold, silver, and platinum will hold their own and probably explode to the upside in the face of outright recession or depression. Gold and platinum could easily see 30-40% gains, while silver, the most-suppressed metal (and most important) could double by year-end, but all the metals will pull back in the early stages of the bear market in stocks.

Once a base is set for the precious metals, it will be off to the races in what will be the resumption of the decades-long bull market that began in 2000. The declines from 2012-2015 will be seen only as a cyclical bear correction amidst a secular bull.

Commodities Useful in Any Environment

So beaten down has been the commodity index, investors may be able to pick and choose from their choice of useful basic materials. Coal, iron, copper, zinc, lumber, oil and other fuels can be a boon in the best or worst of times.

Low prices in crude oil, natural gas and coal should remain in place for the entire year, and beyond. The usefulness of any commodity is, naturally, the selling point, but, in an oversupply environment, end users, rather than producers, will be the main beneficiaries.

An outright deflationary environment should prevail, a boon to cottage industries and small business, which is a welcome change from the repressed conditions of the previous decade. Anyone with the ability to store or make productive use of any manner of commodity should benefit greatly.

Real Estate As Investment Could Be Solid

There are three good reasons to own real estate. Living in a residential home, farming or mining, and renting on a commercial basis.

Since residential real estate is and has been in the stratosphere in many parts of the USA, it's likely to take a serious hit in 2016, with price declines of 10-30% in selected areas, more in others. Speculators and flippers will be fed to the sharks and there will be a slew of defaults in the REIT space.

Farmland, especially anything under 30 acres, which can be handled by a family or small enterprise, could be the best investment of the year. Productive land is usually safe, and besides, you can eat what you grow, which is always a concern.

Commercial real estate will go begging. It's massively overpriced and over-leveraged, due for a massive decline.

Conclusions

The US and global economies have been on a collision course between a massive debt bubble and a large pin. It all comes to a head in 2016, some of it pre-planned, much of it unrehearsed, unwanted and unnecessary.

Stocks will be hated, Wall Street bankers will once again be the object of derision (as they so rightly deserve to be), and politicians will be exposed as mere vassals to the deep state and the banking cartel.

The US will be lucky to avoid a major war, as the Military-Industrial-Congressional-Conplex (MICC) seeks a way out of debt crash and currency debauchery. There isn't one. Only systemic collapse can heal what's wrong in the economies of the world. Watch Japan closely, then Europe. They are the proverbial canaries in the coal mines. China will set its own course, but will continue to emerge as a world power.

The outlook isn't very rosy, admittedly, but, the great oligarchs of the day have made it so. Unmanageable levels of government, business and household debt are screaming for a reset, a break, a jubilee, and it very well could happen.

On the other side of a currency collapse is a bright future, but, if any of the outcomes predicted here actually occur, it will only be the beginning, and there will be more pain for the remainder of the decade. Until Americans and people around the world throw off the shackles of governments, replete with their laws, rules, regulations and onerous taxes, there will be no prosperity.

Donald Trump will win the presidency in November, a sign that the American people have had enough of the status quo.

Happy New Year!

Doubtful That Stocks Will Post Gains for 2015

Stocks took a nosedive into the close, with the three major indices closing at the lows of the session.

More than likely, traders are taking whatever they've made and walking away, as there is only one more day left to buy, sell or hold in 2015.

Crude got hit again and should test the December lows once January commences and the realization that global GDP is going to come in at under two percent or thereabouts for the year. As mentioned earlier, US fourth quarter GDP - which will be first estimated nearing the end of January - will have to measure in the range of 2.8%, which will be a real stretch, as holiday sales have not been very robust and housing - as evidenced again by pending home sales in November, came in at -0.9%, well below already tame estimates of a gain of 0.5%.

Crude Oil closed at 36.65, down 3.22%; Gold and silver were ambushed once more by the global cartel and the ten-year note finished just about where it did yesterday,yielding 2.30%, a pretty good jump of 7-8 pips from the close on Monday.

Natural Gas ended at 2.22, off 6.41%, after a big run-up based upon projections of a colder January for the Northeast via a European model. NOAA's three-month forecast for January-March remains unchanged, showing a warmer than normal winter for much of the Northeast and Midwest. So much for the rapid rise off generational lows. Like oil, there's an absolute glut of Nat Gas, a positive boost for consumers. Storage facilities in the Northeast are near record capacities.

If history is any guide, consumers will continue paying down debt if oil, automotive fuel and natural gas continue to trade at lowered levels. Wall Street may like like the idea, but Main Street is relishing the break from a near-decade of high prices.

Outside of the insanity that is the NASDAQ, a loser close on the S&P will send 2015 investors home flat or losers on the annum. The Dow looks to have no chance to finish in the black for the year.

Here are closing prices at the end of 2014:
S&P: 2,058.90
Dow: 17,823.07
NASDAQ: 4,736.05

Wednesday's closing prices:
S&P 500: 2,063.36, -15.00 (0.72%)
Dow, 17,603.87: -117.11 (0.66%)
NASDAQ, 5,065.85: -42.09 (0.82%)

It's not looking very pretty and January appears to be setting up for a dramatic sell-off.

Tomorrow: Money Daily's Forecasts for 2016

End-of-Year Santa Rally: Is It Real or the Ultimate Head-Fake?

Stocks took off like proverbial holiday bottle rockets on Tuesday, as 2015 winds down and investors (or HFT algos) scramble for the last bits of profit for the year.

All three of the major US indices were up handsomely with just two more trading days left in the year. Equity and bond markets will be open for business as usual on Thursday, the 31st, and closed for New Year's Day on Friday, January 1.

The boost today came right at the open, with all the indices shooting up roughly one percent promptly at 9:30 am ET. The remainder of the session was somewhat on the dull side with low volume, but the speculators didn't seem to mind booking one-day gains.

What little economic data there was turned out to be positive, the Case-Shiller 20-city Index showing a 5.5% gain for October and the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence came in at 96.5, well above consensus estimates of 92.9. It seems that consumers were sharing in the holiday spirit. MasterCard yesterday reported robust holiday spending, at a pace 7.9% better than last year. the gains were attributed in part to lower gasoline prices making more income disposable for holiday spending sprees.

With data darting in and out from positive to negative over the past few weeks, the question arises whether the end-of-year rally on Wall Street is the real thing or whether it's a Grinch-y fake-out which will all be taken away come the new year.

That's a tough call, though most analysts will gladly opine that the bull market is here to stay, since the Fed's rate increase has gone off without a hitch, consumer spending (which accounts for as much as 70% of the economy, so it is said) is awesome and roaring, and funds are all in on equities.

The other side of the coin, from Main Street, is seeing heavier use of credit for everyday purchases, a job market that on the surface says full employment but at the core is made up of statistics, lies and low-paying jobs, and a middle class that continues to be eviscerated by taxes and inflation.

The glue to either side of the story is oil, the one commodity upon which the global economy spins, which is as cheap as it has been since the crisis of 08-09, and doesn't seem to be going anywhere, despite the outsize gains today (WTI closed up, at 37.35/barrel). Low oil and gas prices are boons to consumers and to business, driving input costs lower and profits higher. The only people not happy with the price of oil are the producers, especially the frackers, who have had to lay off thousands as the price of crude has declined.

What the low price of oil does beyond the gas pumps is provide margins for business production, and there's little downside to that. So, other than stocks approaching nosebleed levels, the US economy is in a strange spot. GDP may actually begin to ramp up to levels the Fed can feel more comfortable about raising rates though stocks will be hard-pressed to continue much higher. The rally is going on seven years, already the second-longest in market history since WWII and earnings have slowed for many companies, though the price of their stock remains high.

That's an unsustainable condition, one which will be worked out by the markets over time, and the general rule at these levels would be to fade any rallies, even ones which come in holiday wrappings with candy canes and sugar plums.

It's what's inside that counts, and market internals like breath and volume are pointing in the wrong direction.

Stocks are likely to rally for the remainder of the week and the year, but all-time highs are looming, and on the Dow and S&P haven't been overcome since May. It's tough to see how these indices can go much higher without significant improvement in the bottom lines of many companies.

Besides, it's never smart to buy high, and these markets have been at extremes for more than six months. There's been plenty of time to switch out of equities, but seriously, where else can money go?

Santa Takes a Little Off the Top

Stocks fell today, first hard, then made a daylong comeback to close near the unchanged mark.

It was rather a random day in the world of high finance. Ten-year and 30-year treasuries each closed off a pip, 2.21 and 2.93, respectively, while the 2-year note budged upward from 0.97 to 0.98, tightening and flattening the spread. It wasn't a monumental move, but noticeable to anyone paying attention. The market didn't really appreciate the boost in the fed funds rate and the displeasure is being voiced by various, subtle means, like the desperation in high yields, and the shut-off of the banking spigot that funded stock buybacks for most of the last five years.

It's probably better, right now, to keep a close eye on the bond market. It may turn out to be the place for volatility and profit in 2016, especially if the Federal Reserve follows through on their plans for three or four more rate hikes by this time next year. That is an unlikely event, though "normalization" is what the Fed continues to say they are aiming for, though a truly normal economy won't likely materialize for three or four more years, if they're lucky.

To have a 10-year treasury yielding 4-5% would be quite an accomplishment by 2019 or 2020, considering all the damage already done by over a decade of fed fund rates at one percent or lower.

Equity markets were decidedly dull, as there are few trades to be made of any importance this late in the game, though the markets are still well below all-time highs reached in May, especially the broad gauge of the S&P, which cannot seem to get out of its own way.

Today was mostly gibberish, as will likely be the case the remainder of the week, and the year. It's hard to draw any conclusions from the last week's trading in a calendar year. The first week of January will be much more insightful.

WTI crude was slapped back down from last week's euphoric and ridiculous closing level, finishing the day at 36.72/barrel. Anyone calling a bottom around here just hasn't considered the slack in the economy and the production glut facing producers. It's a huge problem, but nobody wants to cut production, even at these lower prices, constituting a possible new normal.

S&P 500, 2,056.50, -4.49 (0.22%)
Dow, 17,528.27, -23.90 (0.14%)
NASDAQ, 5,040.99, -7.51 (0.15%)

China Steel Exports To USA Subject To 256% Tariff

Remember, folks, the US Department of Commerce has your backs.

The department is recommending that the United States impose a tariff on steel imports from China of 256%, because they feel China has been dumping steel on the market and causing a severe disruption in the price, negatively affecting US steel producers.

Gee, really? What's next, tariffs on electronics, cars, just about anything you buy at Wal-Mart or nearly anywhere in America?

Where's the great Ben Bernanke when you need him? You know, the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve who is an EXPERT on the Great Depression.

Why do we need the Big Bernank now? Because, his expertise would prevail on our glorious government goofballs that protectionism is exactly what made the Great Depression so (not) great.

You take depressed markets overfull of inventory, tack on tariffs and you get exactly what the Fed wants in order to hide its horrible policies: velocity of money at zero, falling wages, layoffs and now, the kicker, goods too expensive for anybody to buy. Pure genius, these guys looking out for all of us little people.

This is just the beginning. Expect to see more trade protectionism going forward and more countries falling into recession. Add it all up and you have Great Depression 2.0.

It's not going to happen all of a sudden, because the Fed is still fighting deflation. But, when the going gets rough, really rough, like when Wall Street (hell) freezes over and commits suicide in a crash of stocks of companies that have been repurchasing their own shares for the past six years and they lay off millions of workers, that's when the government will move in full force with trade restrictions and tariffs so that Americans can't purchase anything from the evil Chinamen.

Maybe somebody should have thought about this before we sent all of our manufacturing base over to the Red Dragons. Then again, maybe they did.

Meanwhile, the Santa Claus rally continues on Wall Street. The S&P gained enough today to show a small profit for the year and the Dow Jones Industrials are closing in on being black for 2015.

Stocks' Santa Rally Based On Nothing In Particular

The word for the day was "oversold," in essence green lighting all the algos on the belief that stocks were still undervalued, despite the S&P 500 average P/E of 22, when the norm is 15.

Whatever sparked the rally du jour must have been a highly-held secret, because nothing much has changed and today's economic news - third GDP revision for the 3rd quarter came in at an even 2%, and existing home sales were down 10.5% month-over-month (the lowest annualized rate since April 2014), and that was before the Fed and the banks hiked interest rates.

As for GDP, the third quarter reading was 0.1% lower than the previous estimate, and down sharply from the second quarter, when the economy supposedly grew at a mind-blowing 3.9%. Adding in the 1st quarter's decline of 0.7%, the fourth quarter will have to have grown by 2.8%, a seemingly reasonable quest, to get the entire year at a 2% growth rate. What a recovery!

Given that retail sales have been sluggish at best and inventories rising, it will be a struggle for the economy to show a gain of that size. However, the brilliant economists at the BLS certainly can massage the numbers enough to wring out nearly 3% growth, somehow.

So, Santa Claus has arrived on Wall Street. There are just two more days of trading this week and six total for the year, and stocks are showing that 2015 will end essentially flat.

Here are closing prices at the end of 2014:
S&P: 2,058.90
Dow: 17,823.07
NASDAQ: 4,736.05

The NAZ looks to have gains in the bag, while the S&P and Dow have some work left to do. Ho, ho, ho.

Today's closing numbers:
S&P 500: 2,038.97, +17.82 (0.88%)
Dow: 17,417.27, +165.65 (0.96%)
NASDAQ: 5,001.11, +32.19 (0.65%)

The Awakening Continues...

I would like to get back to the kind of world that existed when I knew nothing, when I was a kid, in the early 60s, before the MICC (Wilkerson's inclusion of "Congressional" to the standard MIC is essential and poignant) killed JFK.

Yeah, maybe America wasn't innocent and perfect, but it was miles ahead of what we have today. Anecdotally, my neighborhood, suburban Rochester (Irondequoit) was still largely a farming center. There were huge greenhouses just four doors down the street from me. And fruitstands, and kids riding bikes with no helmets, and cars without seatbelts and cops would would "give you a break" instead of "breaking your face."

Gradually, the farms were replaced with apartments, more apartments, stores, new homes, and the local government got bigger, and bigger and bigger. The town today is mostly still middle class, but the folks from the 60s and 70s have moved on. There are many more rentals, the shopping plaza that used to be all white shoppers is now 60-70% minorities, many of them on public assistance. The government is enormous. The school superintendant makes $285,000 a year, with golden pension, super health benefits, etc. The teachers make more money and have better benefits than 80% of the people they "serve."

It's all gone backwards. Our current system must come to an end, either by financial degradation (our best case) or armed conflict of private sector citizens against the "public servants." The government must be reigned in, and we must take our country back, because if we don't, there will be nothing left to salvage. We can start by opposing every school budget proposal and knocking school systems back to 1960s levels.

There will be great pain, so be on the right side. Private industry. Smaller government. Live and act without fear. It is the only way.

Published December 11, 2015, Abby Martin interviews retired U.S. Army Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, former national security advisor to the Reagan administration, who spent years as an assistant to Secretary of State Colin Powell during both Bush administrations. Today, he is honest about the unfixable corruption inside the establishment and the corporate interests driving foreign policy.

Hear a rare insider's view of what interests are behind U.S. wars, the manipulation of intelligence, the intertwining of the military and corporate world, and why the U.S. Empire is doomed.

The Big Reset Has Begun; Prepare Accordingly; Stocks Skid to 2-Month Lows

Coincidence?

Try these events from the past three days:

Kerry meets with Putin, says Assad can stay as ruler of Syria. US policy neutered.

Biden calls off Turkey, tells them to stop violating Iraq's borders. US policy neutered.

Fed raised Fed funds rate, banks raise prime rate.

Putin publicly backs Trump.

Ukraine defaults on Russian debt. While this may appear bad for Russia, it's worse for Ukraine, and even worse for US policy.

Today, the plug will be pulled on over a trillion$ in SPY options. Winners and losers, lots of both.

The world has changed radically in the past week. Trump is now the de facto US President. Obama can go to Hawaii and stay there for all the world leaders care. Kerry had no power; now he has even less, if that's possible.

Just watch: terrorism will be a non-starter for 2016. US intel has been found out (by Putin) and he's putting an end to it all.

Will truth and justice return to America? Just like bankruptcy, gradually, then all of a sudden.

h/t to Ernest Hemingway

Then, there's this cryptic note - citing Jim Willie's Hat Trick Letter - found in the comments section on a Zero Hedge article.

GLOBAL RESET HAS BEEN TRIGGERED, THE PROCESS BEGUN, THE VOICE FINALLY WARNS... THE EVENTS HAVE BEGUN, AND THE USFED RATE HIKE MIGHT HAVE BEEN PART OF THE GLOBAL DECISION. $$$

The Voice gives an urgent warning that finally the breakdown is accelerating, the damage profound, the effects unmistakable, the plug pulled. The officials have not undertaken any remedy for several years. His message is clear and stark, the first time such a communication has been given to the Jackass and colleagues. It was given just a few days before the USFed rate hike decision was made. "Guys, the plug has been pulled. Let the show begin. Our organization has been alerted accordingly to that effect this morning at 4am, that the deed is done. The battle trigger code has been chosen. It will get incredibly ugly, as real casualties will result. The annihilation of entire groups of people within the corrupt and criminal systems will be unimaginable to normal humanoids. These systems will be totally dismembered and crushed, never to be resurrected. The cabal is being caught in a grand dragnet, with the outcome certain to be their extermination, along with all their agents and collaborators. [1] The effects of this event driven scenario will become visible to the ordinary people in early 2016 and forward. Once the dust settles, it is clear to me that the human population will be noticeably lower, with fewer people roaming this planet." The Voice is referring to the Satanist Bank Cabal groups. We mere mortals hope that reason prevails, that remedy is agreed upon, that transition is orderly, so that a billion people do not needlessly perish. But the Anglo-Americans have their favorite nuclear and virus toys. We have seen ample evidence of their chemical plant explosions as a warm-up to main events.

Our organization has been alerted accordingly...

At 11:00 am ET, the S&P already dumped 2030 and 2020. Getting closer to the magic mark of 2000.

Don't actually think it matters if it happens today, tomorrow, next week or next year. The crash has been underway since late May, the last time the NAZ, S&P and Dow all set new all time highs.

The trash is being taken to the dumpster. Watch terrorism disappear as a major story. The meme for 2016 will be economic security, and Trump will win easily.

In fact, since Putin's endorsement yesterday, some would wager that in the minds of most world leaders, Trump is already the US de facto president. Obummer is so over. Hillary is a non-starter. Change is good; best to be out in front of it. The elections will be all for show, since Trump is self-financed. The money machine(s) is/are grinding to a halt.

Americans are going to see the fruits of what the Fed and the federal government, state governments, and local governments have sewn: TRASH. Loads of TRASH, piled high, heaped upon more loads of TRASH.

Bankruptcies should absolutely soar in 2016. Corporate failures and bond defaults will accelerate. Pensions will default on payments. The US will slowly, painfully, resort to honest money. GOLD AND SILVER WILL SOAR.

A BIG THANK YOU TO JANET and THE FOMC. THANKS, YOU NITWITS.

David Stockman really nailed it in his post at Contra Corner Blog.

And, while the economy slowly crumbles, congress (which obviously didn't get the memo that they're fired) conveniently passed a $1.15 trillion omnibus budget bill with the notorious CISA government spying act included.

At the end of the week (the last full week of 2015), the figures for the major averages look pretty stupid.

The Dow was smacked down a whipping 367 points, closing at 17,128.59, the lowest closing price since mid-October. For the week, the DJI was off nearly one percent, down 136.62 points.

The S&P nearly got to the 2000 mark, closing down 36.43, at 2005.46 on the day, but lost just 6.95 for the week. On the NASDAQ, it was a 1.59% loss, down 79.47, at 4973.08. On a weekly basis, it doesn't look bad on the surface, as the NAZ lost a mere 10 points.

However, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday were all up days for the major indices. Thursday and Friday were down, and down big, erasing all of the early-week gains. From the highs after the FOMC meeting, on Wednesday's close, the losses portend further losses next week. a cleansing of bad assets is well underway, and there are plenty of bad ones in all markets.

Also, the entire treasury curve flattened. The 10-year yield, in particular, dropped 10 basis points from 2:00 pm ET on Wednesday, the moment of the FMOC rate hike announcement, ending the week at 2.20%. If the Fed's master plan was working, shouldn't all bond yields - especially those of shorter durations - have gone up? This is a classic example of the market rejecting the Fed, with more to come, as the Fed thinks it's going to raise rates four more times in 2016, a recipe for economic cataclysm.

Lastly, keep a close eye on the banks (JPM, BAC, C, GS, WFC, MS) as they were all lower by 2-3% on the day.

David Bowie's Changes should suffice as an appropriate song for a truly epic week:

Yellen's Rate Hike Timing Might Be A Little Off... Like Five, Six Or Seven Years

Now that the Fed has restored its own venerable credibility, the markets seem to think, "well, yeah, the fed is credible, but still wrong." Fed Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, will go down in history as the worst chairperson in the 102-year history of the Federal Reserve, followed closely by her predecessor, Ben Bernanke.

Hiking the federal funds rate even a measly 1/4%, as they did on Wednesday, seems to be anathema to all kinds of markets, except maybe the dollar index, which, unlike just about everything else, rallied today.

Stocks erased all of yesterday's gains and then some, sending the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 into the red for the year. For investors of all stripes (and most importantly, hedge fund managers, who have gotten murdered this year), what's worse is that the year is almost over and there doesn't seem to be a catalyst available to overcome what damage the Fed has done with its unmistakable policy error.

Anybody with brain cells saw this coming well in advance. The global economy is virtually on its knees and the Fed thought it was time for a hike in interest rates. The hike amounted to the political equivalent of a punt. There was nowhere else to go, so they went through the only door open. Bad mistake, especially since that door had been open since 2009.

What were they thinking? Maybe the question should be "what were they not thinking?" because they ignored the obvious signs of slowing, not only in emerging markets, but in commodities, high yield bonds, corporate profits, sales, housing, and a plethora of other indicators that were signaling recession ahead rather than recovery accomplished.

The Federal Reserve is comprised of some of the worst thinkers on the planet, whose sole interest is in keeping their credibility intact, and they are quickly losing control over that. They've managed, in the short span of seven years - thanks to their dual policies of zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and quantitative easing (QE) to completely dismantle the fabric of capitalism, enriching only the upper, upper crust of wealthy individuals while dashing the hopes and savings of millions of would-be retirees.

With any luck, the Fed's failed policies will lead to outright rejection of the currency, not just around the world, but right here in the United States as well. These are control freaks, and they've lost control, implying simply that worse decisions are already in the making.

In case anybody's paying attention, the Federal Reserve is busy wrecking what's left of the global economy by bringing the US economy into line with the rest of the world, which, if one would like to take a look at Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, is already suffering deeply.

Global depression and a debt jubilee are on the plate for 2016. You can have it served directly or order it to go. Zombie banks, which should have gone out of business in 2008, don't deserve to be repaid again, as they've already stolen so much taxpayer money that they've bankrupted the US government.

It's a good thing there's only a few weeks left in the year, because the losses for 2015 will stop suddenly on December 31.

Sadly, those losses will resume promptly, when markets reopen on January 4, 2016.

In advance, Happy New Year (if we make it).

Fed's FOMC Announces 0.25% Rate Hike, Stocks Soar On The News, Banks Raise Prime Rate

As expected, the FOMC (Federal Open Markets Committee) raised the interest rate on federal funds (the rate for overnight loans from one financial institution to another from funds held at the Federal Reserve) from a range of 0.00-0.25 to 0.25 to 0.50.

Full release here.

On the surface, this seems much ado about nothing, or, almost nothing, but the Fed's long-awaited rate increase will have ramifications across the investing and business world.

For instance, the first salvo will be to any and all loans tied to the Prime Rate, which include most credit card, revolving debt and home equity loans and lines of credit.

Shortly after the Fed's rate announcement, major banks began announcing that they were raising their prime lending rate from 3.25 percent to 3.50 percent. Wells Fargo was the first bank to announce the rate hike, followed in rapid pace by Chase, Citibank and Bank of America. The increases are effective immediately.

What that means is if you've been paying 4% (not unusual) on a home equity loan, your new rate will be 4.25%. In real terms, on $250,000, that's an additional $37 per month. Not much, one might think, but, considering that the Fed plans on continuing to increase their base FF rate - which will green light the banks to up the prime rate - the cost of borrowing will simply continue to increase.

Many analysts have shied away from calling the Fed's move ill-timed, though an equal number has called it "too late." What it certainly is not is "too little." Insofar as it is the smallest rate hike imaginable, its effects will be far reaching.

In larger, banking terms, try this: A billion dollars borrowed over seven years at 1/4% would cost $12,010,470 per monthly payment. At 1/2%, it's $12,116,790, an increase of $106,000 a month. That same billion, borrowed for just one year at 1/4% interest requires a monthly payment of $83,446,220. At 1/2%, it's 83,559,200, an increase of $112,980 per month.

With numbers like these being thrown around routinely - and daily - by the largest financial institutions, hedge funds, brokerages and their ilk, something is bound to blow up sooner, rather than later. Already we've witnessed carnage in the junk bond markets, which have been pounded in anticipation of today's Fed announcement and there will surely be more to come.

On wall Street, stocks appeared to love the move, with the Dow up 224 points, the S&P gaining 29.66, and the NASDAQ ahead by 75.77. This looks all well and good right out of the box, but there's a quadruple witching day coming up Friday on options, and year end is now within spitting distance.

It might be wise to square up one's positions - if one has any - before the end of 2015 to take advantage of tax breaks for losses and/or long term gains. Precious metals moved rather sharply throughout the day and did not pull back after the Fed announcement, despite the dollar remaining strong, which is the obvious outcome.

For now, the strong dollar will continue to stoke deflation, as imports will become cheaper. To anybody who's been Christmas shopping, the price structure is obviously on the low end this season and will likely be bargain basement after the holiday shopping ends.

Most Americans will find bargains in stores, if they have any money with which to purchase them after paying what are sure to be higher credit card bills.

According to the Federal Reserve, the US economy is supposed to be strong enough now to absorb this rate increase and the associated nuances. At this juncture, it's far too early to tell.

We shall see in coming weeks and months. As Ernest Hemingway so eloquently put it in The Sun Also Rises: "How did you go bankrupt?"

"Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly."

Pre-FED-Hike Notes for the Truly Deranged and/or Excited

As of 12:30 pm ET, amazingly, the Dow, NAZ and S&P are all right at (or pretty damn close) both their 40 and 200-day MAs.

In other words, the entire market will be essentially flat going into the FOMC announcement. No clues for anyone, except that move up in PMs this morning.

Putting on my best guessing hat - which stragely resembles a dunce cap - I'd say the 0.25% rate hike is all but a done deal. The Fed has gone too far and they know it.

This is really a now-or-never condition, and they must go with NOW, because NEVER doesn't really mean never. It means they will have to do this at some point. There will be significant pain ahead, but only for those who are highly leveraged, over-indebted or just plain stupid.

Everyone has had seven years to prepare for this moment. If you haven't gotten a whiff of what's coming, you are not to be pitied. You will be dismembered and disposed of by the gnarly beast of deflation.

That's my take.

Final note: Yesterday, over at ZeroHedge, I reiterated my call from about two years ago that silver would see $12. Another poster said $8.25 was the target, or bottom. I'm fine with that. Will be buying at $12 and buying even more if and when it ever gets to $8.

90 minutes to lift-off. Good luck to all.

Last Dance Before Yellen's Rate Hike; Stocks at the High End... with Tom Petty Video

In tribute to today's madcap stock rally in the face of tomorrow's FOMC policy rate decision, we present Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers classic, "Mary Jane's Last Dance."

Picture Mary Jane as Wall Street, High Yield Bonds, the global economy, or all three. Tom Petty is the Federal Reserve. That's all for today. Tomorrow's a big one.