Money Daily

Sunday, August 24, 2025

WEEKEND WRAP: Dovish Powell Sparks Massive Asset Rally; Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver, Oil All Up Sharply; Inflation Will Rise

Jerome Powell's keynote address at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium set off waves of buying Friday as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve signaled a September rate cut. After keeping the federal funds target rate at 4.25-4.50% for eight months, Powell tap-danced through a myriad of economic assumptions and vague possibilities, eventually arriving at the conclusion that it was due time for the Federal Reserve to change interest rate policy, leaning dovishly toward lower rates, longer term.

It wasn't so much that Powell, who will be replaced in May, capitulated to demands by President Trump for lower interest rates, but more that he saw the hand-writing on the soon-to-be-glistening new walls of the Eccles Building after two Trump appointees to the Federal Reserve voted their dissent last month to keeping rates on hold.

Powell's assumption that risks to employment outweighed those to inflation is likely incorrect, given Trump's own dual mandates of deportations and tariffs are positive for employment and negative for inflation. Powell just limped through his address in order to please his actual bosses on Wall Street.

The Chairman's message implied at least a 25 basis point cut in September - possibly 50 - with more cuts in November and December. As interest rate policy goes, lowering the federal funds rate always invites asset appreciation and just as certainly as night follows day, asset appreciation foments consumer price inflation. Adding a minimum 15% boost on imports, Americans are sure to see inflation reignited with the flame-thrower of tariffs.

While Wall Street was overjoyed and politicians slobbering over their new-found gains, the average American consumer was suffering repeated bouts of sticker shock at every trip to the grocery store.

Powell may like to believe that 2.7% is close enough to the Fed's Maginot line of two percent long term inflation to rationally lower interest rates, but he will be forever despised after leaving office when inflation reaches four or five percent or higher, next year, despite what the phony CPI calculations from the fudging data-crunchers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) might report.

As the soap opera of Trump tariffs, deportations, and the government investing in private companies continues, America's middle class continues to shrink, all while the naked emperor in the White House praises Wall Street's success and increased flows to the U.S. Treasury, which benefit nobody other than the spendthrifts in congress and the overblown federal bureaucracy.

For now, American consumers continue being beaten like rented mules via higher prices, a debased currency, and the propagandized mainstream media, all in the name of MAGA and the bumper-sticker rhetoric narrative that "we're number one" as the American Dream fades into the sunset of empire.

Stocks

Friday's gains were good enough to lift the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a new record close along with the NYSE Composite and S&P 500. The NASDAQ made gains as well, but not enough to avoid a week that ended in the red, down a little more than 1/2 percent as the AI boom faced headwinds on valuation and capital expenditure concerns.

On Friday, the Advance-Decline ratio, which has consistently hovered around zero for most of the year, registered 10:1. Only the worst of the worst lost ground as even stocks that are basically bad investments gained. Everything was up, putting it mildly.

It's not that stocks are not massively overpriced, it's that Wall Street, by virtue of Powell's dovish position on interest rates, had a narrative with which it could run, luring more people into the casino to take up positions, while the insiders begin liquidating their own with considerable profits in days and weeks ahead. The one-day wonder of Friday's massive rally will be tested Monday and through the coming week to see if it has suitable legs.

With the catalyst of earnings reports coming to a close, companies of substance reporting the week ahead are the following:

Monday: (before open) Napco (NSSC); (after close) Semtech (SMTC)

Tuesday: (before open) BMO (BMO), Scotiabank (BNS); (after close) Ooma (OOMA), Box (BOX)

Wednesday: (before open) Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Kohl's (KSS), J.M. Smucker (SJM), Williams-Sonoma (WSM); (after close) Nvidia (NVDA), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ); Urban Outfitters (URBN), Five Below (FIVE)

Thursday: (before open) Dollar General (DG), Best Buy (BBY), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Ollie's (OLLI), CIBC (CM), TB Bank (TD); (after close) Dell (DELL), Gap Inc. (GAP), Petco (WOOF), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Marvell (MRVL), Affirm (AFRM)

Friday: (before open) Alibaba (BABA), Frontline (FRO).

Obviously, much of the focus will be on Nvidia after the close Wednesday, but retailers like Kohl's, Best Buy, Urban Outfitters, Gap, Dollar General, Dick's and others may offer better insight to tariff and inflation realities.

The economic data calendar will be brisk, beginning Monday with July New Home Sales and the Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Index. Tuesday brings up July Durable Goods data, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence, and the Richmond Fed. The EIA weekly report on crude and distillates appears Wednesday.

On Thursday, weekly unemployment claims are released along with the monthly PCE calculations and the second estimate of second quarter GDP. Friday's PCE Index will be closely watched after Powell's claim that inflation is either "well-anchored" or not much of an issue. The University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence poll will conclude data drops for August as the final trading session Friday precedes the three-day Labor Day holiday with markets, banks, and many businesses closed Monday, September 1.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
07/18/2025	4.35	4.39	4.46	4.40	4.42	4.30	4.08
07/25/2025	4.37	4.46	4.46	4.42	4.42	4.31	4.09
08/01/2025	4.49	4.46	4.44	4.35	4.30	4.16	3.87
08/08/2025	4.48	4.43	4.39	4.32	4.27	4.15	3.93
08/15/2025	4.48	4.42	4.35	4.30	4.22	4.12	3.93
08/22/2025	4.47	4.38	4.36	4.27	4.21	4.08	3.87

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
07/18/2025	3.88	3.84	3.96	4.18	4.44	4.99	5.00
07/25/2025	3.91	3.86	3.95	4.15	4.40	4.92	4.92
08/01/2025	3.69	3.67	3.77	3.97	4.23	4.79	4.81
08/08/2025	3.76	3.70	3.84	4.03	4.27	4.84	4.85
08/15/2025	3.75	3.73	3.85	4.07	4.33	4.91	4.92
08/22/2025	3.68	3.64	3.76	3.98	4.26	4.84	4.88

The yield curve, which has been partially inverted for the past six weeks and the better part of the past two years, is now inverted from 30-day bills out to 10-year notes, declining from 30-days out to 3-years, then reversing from thereon out to 30-year bonds with yields rising out to the longest maturities.

Chairman Powell's Jackson Hole speech managed to drop yields significantly. Notes of 2-year through 10-year durations dropped anywhere from seven to nine basis points. Bond vigilantes will be out in force, though recent machinations by the U.S. Treasury continues to distort the fixed income market, which is usually less than transparent and is now operational by a grab-bag of foreign investors, primary dealers, and stablecoin issuers, which are clouding the picture in unique manners.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week at its highs, $63.77 in New York Friday afternoon, only because of the Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair, Jerome Powell. Fundamental do not support much of any price increase anywhere in the world. Up from last Friday's $62.29, all of the gain made Friday to close out the week. It is unlikely to hold at that level since the actual "hike" by the Fed won't happen until mid September. Until then, it's all speculation and supply-demand driven.

Crude has hovered between correction and bear market since the January 15 peak of $78.71, currently down 17%, still seeking lower levels. It is not going back there because it is not suject to tariffs and most people, after basic necessities like rent, mortgage payments, and food, cannot afford excessive fuel purchases. Besides, after Labor Day, which is a week from Monday, summertime vacation driving tails off significantly, so demand for gasoline will be down, reducing the need for crude. It's the one bright spot in an overall dismal situation, wherein the government receives all the benefits (money) from the tariffs and consumers pay via increased prices. It is grossly unfair to the American public. It's bad policy that will ultimately result in global chaos or depression.

Gas prices have leveled off over the past month and remain near the low end, but were up a couple of cents to $3.14 on Sunday, as Gasbuddy.com reports.

State-by-state numbers show California remaining at the top, at $4.53 per gallon a nickel higher, with Washington a nearby second, $4.38. Other than Kentucky ($2.94) there are no states north of the 42nd parallel and east of Iowa and Missouri under $3.00. west Virginia is lowest ($3.01), with the high end dominated by populous states, Illinois ($3.39), Ohio ($3.33), Michigan ($3.29),and (Pennsylvania ($3.27).

In the Midwest, Kansas ($2.80) is the lowest, followed by Missouri and North Dakota ($2.86), Nebraska and Iowa, both $2.88.

All of the South, from North Carolina to New Mexico, is sub-$3.00, with Oklahoma the lowest in the country, at $2.63. The Sunshine State checked in at $2.90, down a whopping 16 cents from last Sunday.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 20 states, two fewer than the prior week, exclusively concentrated in the South and Midwest.

Bitcoin

This week: $114,536.60
Last week: $118,309.30
2 weeks ago: $118,483.10
6 months ago: $92,066.20
One year ago: $64,153.97
Five years ago: $11,477.20

Crypto is nothing more than slave money for the 21st century. Repackaged fiat in flashy technology, none of it has any intrinsic value of any kind. It cannot be seen, touched, mined, melted, torn, or altered in any physical manner. Crypto, and bitcoin in particular, is fully a figment of global imagination, hoarded by whales, who own 90% or more of the vacuous creations.

It's understandable that stupid people would prefer vapor-money to physical gold and silver, though it needs to be pointed out that both of the precious metals - despite constant price suppression - have outperformed bitcoin year-to-date. Silver is up 35.29%; gold, up 29.44%; bitcoin, up 22.67%. These types are probably heavily into meme stocks, anime, and Pokemon as well.

Curiously, while bitcoin did bounce about $5,000 on Friday, launching from a five-week low of $112,061 to $117,063 within minutes of Chairman Powell's lip-flapping at Jackson Hole, but has since retreated and continues to lag precious metals. Those looking for alternatives to depreciating fiat currency might begin looking elsewhere, outside the crypto-universe.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 86.75; last week: 88.95

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 7/25: $3,338.50
Gold price 8/1: $3,416.00
Gold price 8/8: $3,458.20
Gold price 8/15: $3,381.70
Gold price 8/22: $3,417.20

Silver price 7/25: $38.33
Silver price 8/1: $37.10
Silver price 8/8: $38.51
Silver price 8/15: $38.02
Silver price 8/22: $39.39

If the Fed, the president and most of Wall Street insists on lowering interest rates, gold and silver will (should) soar. One can see the effect that the mere insinuation of lower rates did for precious metals on Friday.

Thank you, Mr. Powell.

The next levels to watch are obviously $40.00 for silver and $3,500 for gold. Since most of the Western economies are complete debt-service slaves to central banks, debasing their currencies as expeditiously as possible, the price of gold in fiat terms should be orders of magnitude higher in coming months and years. Stocks, money market funds, money in banks pale by comparison as measures of true wealth to precious metals, hard assets, and real estate.

Nothing more needs to be said. The price appreciation of precious metals since the pandemic years has outpaced all other asset classes and their durability, portability, and use as media of exchange are unparalleled. Soon enough, and already underway is fraction silver in denominations of under an ounce. eBay sellers and online dealers are hawking 1/2, 1/4, and 1/10-ounce and gram-weight silver bars and coins because it's nearing a point that the average stacker can't afford multiples of one ounce coins or bars, as already happened with gold.

One gram gold bars are now plentiful. One gram of silver is already worth more than $1 US, and that price is advancing. Countries with plentiful supplies of silver in reserve and in-ground - China, Peru, Mexico, Argentina - may soon consider issuance of silver coinage as currency, as fiat currencies begin to fail globally. It's not as far-fetched an idea as some may want to believe. Hugo Salinas Price, owner of the second largest gold mine and silver mines in the state of Durango, Mexico, has long advocated for a return to silver coinage.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	40.00	53.85	45.56	44.95
1 oz silver bar:	42.00	52.06	47.92	48.38
1 oz gold coin:	3,400.00	3,638.00	3,541.31	3,534.37
1 oz gold bar:	3,488.77	3,588.42	3,535.42	3,534.32

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose modestly for the week, albeit to a new record high since Money Daily began recording in 2021, of $46.70, a gain of $0.62 from the August 17 price of $46.08 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

Brace for impact! Inflation is coming back. No wonder people in Gaza are starving.

At the Close, Friday, August 22, 2025:
Dow: 45,631.74, +846.24 (+1.89%)
NASDAQ: 21,496.54, +396.22 (+1.88%)
S&P 500: 6,466.91, +96.74 (+1.52%)
NYSE Composite: 21,150.12, +331.52 (+1.59%)

For the Week:
Dow: +685.62 (+1.53%)
NASDAQ: -126.45 (-0.58%)
S&P 500: +17.11 (+0.27%)
NYSE Composite: +347.44 (+1.67%)
Dow Transports: +439.89 (+2.81%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Friday, August 22, 2025

Chairman Powell Set to Kick Off Jackson Hole Symposium; Stocks Lower for the Week; Rate Cut Expected for September

From a macro perspective, it's been a funky week as geo-politics criss-crossed with economic realities. Starting with hopes for peace in Ukraine, a botched White House meeting dashed those hopes by mid-week, as the U.S. and its European partners can't seem to understand that Russia is winning the war and thus will dictate terms of any peace agreement, not them. Last Friday's Alaska summit between Trump and Putin now appears to be a total waste of time and effort, other than Trump showing off some jets (Putin was not only not impressed, he laughed at the grandstanding).

Meanwhile, expert analysts have been poring over details of big tech AI spending, concluding, at least partially, that the half-trillion in announced expansions of data centers by the likes of Google, Amazon, Meta, Apple and others is probably a bitt too much for LLMs (Large Language Models) when the world is increasingly looking towards SLMs (Small Language Models) that could function inside robots, refrigerators, cars, drones, and apparel.

On Thursday, word that Walmart (WMT) missed their earnings expectations sent some people scrambling for the sell button, sending all indices lower, including the Dow, which had spent the prior six sessions flat-lining just below 45,000.

Naturally, those mysterious dip-buyers (NY Fed, ESF, PPT, etc.) came in just after 10:00 am ET and again in the afternoon to save the market's bacon, lifting all the majors off their lows.

Early this morning, in anticipation of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech to kick off the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium hosted by the Kansas City Fed, stock futures plunged and then magically recovered into positive territory. The Chairman is set to take the stage at 10:00 AM ET. The theme of the 2025 conference is titled "Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy."

With high expectations that Powell will offer tacit indication of a September rate cut, the move in futures is intended to give market participants some positive reinforcement, even though cutting rates with stocks near all-time highs, grocery prices rising again and killing what remains of America's middle class, and tariffs adding to inflation pressures, is probably the last thing the Fed should be considering. It's almost as if the accumulated braintrust of the government and its think tanks and policy honchos have collectively lost their minds.

With the opening bell ringing in less than half an hour, stock futures are stoked. For the week, though Thursday's close, the Dow is down 160 points; NASDAQ is off 522, and the S&P is lower by 79.

Powell's speech will be available from a variety of sources on the web and might be one of the more revealing expositions of the year, setting the policy stage for the 4th quarter and into 2026.

At the Close, Thursday, August 21, 2025:
Dow: 44,785.50, -152.81 (-0.34%)
NASDAQ: 21,100.31, -72.54 (-0.34%)
S&P 500: 6,370.17, -25.61 (-0.40%)
NYSE Composite: 20,818.60, -46.95 (-0.23%)

Dow Industrials Flat-Lined Six Straight Sessions; Wamart Miss on EPS Sending Shockwaves Through Markets

While much attention has been paid to the recent swoon in tech stocks, with the NASDAQ down four of the past five sessions, losing sharply Tuesday and Wednesday, it would be easy to miss another market phenomenon occurring over the same period, that being the flat-lining of the Dow Industrials, which have closed fractionally higher and lower around a nexus at 44,922.27 for the past six sessions, actually closing at that exact price on both August 13 and August 19.

What has kept the Dow within a tight range could be any number of variables, though the most likely appears to be overhead resistance at the all-time high of 45,014.04. The index has exceeded that number on an intraday basis, but has consistently retreated from it, as if Adam Smith's "invisible hand" of market dynamics has exerted control over billions of shares of stocks represented by the index.

Perhaps the NASDAQ is a more telling manifestation of general market exhaustion, but the Dow Industrials failing to make new highs, even as the NASDAQ and S&P have crossed into fresh territory numerous times this year, is one that bears watching if only to dignify the claims of Dow Theorists that the rally off of April lows has been nothing short of a lengthy dead cat bounce into extreme valuations and that the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports continue to signal a primary bearish trend from which the market cannot escape.

The Dow's recent flat-line streak may be coming to an abrupt end as of Thursday, as futures are projecting a dismal open after Walmart (WMT) released second quarter earnings prior to the bell.

Being the world's largest retailer and a Dow Component, Walmart's miss on EPS in the second quarter is sending shock waves through global markets. Walmart reported EPS of 68 cents, short of the consensus estimate of 73 cents per share. Though the company has gained market share from other competitors with consistent lower prices on a wide range of goods and has raised guidance, investors are focusing on the results and the threat of margin pressure from tariff costs.

With the opening bell due to ring in just moments, Dow futures are indicating a negative open, with Dow futures off 165 points, NASDAQ futures lower by 100, and S&P futures sliding 25 points.

While it may not yet be time to panic, there is certainly a mood change on Wall Street, especially with Jerome Powell's keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Conference scheduled for Friday morning.

The next few sessions could go a long way toward determining the overall direction of markets in the near term.

At the Close, Wednesday, August 20, 2025:
Dow: 44,938.31, +16.04 (+0.04%)
NASDAQ: 21,172.86, -142.09 (-0.67%)
S&P 500: 6,395.78, -15.59 (-0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 20,865.55, +44.89 (+0.22%)

Wednesday, August 20, 2025

No Peace Deal in Ukraine, Thanks to European/American Neocons; BitBonds Emerge as Silly Solution; Target Down, Gold, Silver Up

Sorry to burst the peace bubble, but there's not going to be any kind of deal to
end the conflict in Ukraine. Not in the immediate future, anyway.

Whatever goodwill was achieved at the Alaska Summit between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, August 15, was squandered just a few days later by the completely botched multi-lateral meeting at the White House between Trump, Ukraine's illegitimate leader, Zelensky, and the midget politicians of Europe - Macron, Starmer, Meloni, and the grand lady of the EU, Ursula von der Leyen, among others.

While President Trump managed to get a call through to Putin while Zelensky and his "team" were still in the White House, signaling that Putin was ready to talk one-on-one with Zelensky, the participants then blundered into discussions about security guarantee arrangements for post-war Ukraine, including the ludicrous notion that Ukraine would purchase $100 billion worth of weapons from the U.S., financed by Europe, and the final, fatal kicker, that the U.S. would provide air support.

To think that Russia would agree to have the very nations that started the war, and continue to fund the war, provide ongoing security in the form of re-arming Ukraine with U.S. jets hovering in the background is the absolute clown-world-approved height of folly.

Maybe that was the intention all along. Ukraine doesn't want the war to end, nor does Europe, nor does the military-industrial-complex (MIC), which apparently has not just Trump's ear, but his whole face, foot planted firmly in his all-too-often wide open mouth.

These people - the Europeans and President Trump - lack class, diplomatic skills, but above all, common sense. If they don't plunge the world into further conflict and World War III, they'll be lucky to escape the wrath of their own citizens, something about which Trump has no concerns, since he's a lame duck president who cannot run again. If there's a God, or Karma, or aliens watching over planet Earth, the European leaders will lose any upcoming elections (maybe not Italy's Meloni, who appeared to be somewhere between mildly amused and wickedly perturbed during the White House affair), resign, or be forced out by their own legislators.

They don't deserve to lead anything greater than a half-hour field trip, let alone some of the major countries of Europe. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, a true diplomat, has, according to mainstream sources, Yahoo! and Politico, not ruled out a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, but has indicated that proper protocol be observed in a step-by-step manner, detailing each party's objectives, before such a face-to-face encounter should occur.

As usual, the Russians are being circumspect and cautious. They've been fooled too many times by the West and, apparently, won't be fooled again.

Naturally, the media spin on this will be along the lines of "Russia doesn't want peace," and "Russia played us," and "they're buying time," as Russian forces continue to steamroll through Ukrainian territory as Ukraine's military is on the verge of collapse, quickly running out of weapons and trained soldiers to operate them.

Russia is winning the war on the ground and has no good reason to seek peace other than on terms they dictate, not the half-baked, completely unacceptable proposals being trotted out by Trump and company. Thus, the war rages on and President Trump can do nothing to stop it other than whine because he refuses to take his foot out of his mouth and stomp it down on the neocon coalition of European leaders and in his own congressional delegation. Excuse the French, but "sacre bleu, what a bunch of morons."

The bottom line, so to speak, is that the U.S. government is broke, Europe penniless, each saddled with leadership that struggles to grasp even simple concepts like waging war on Russia's doorstep, with foreign (Ukrainian) troops using weapons they don't have and cannot afford is a losing battle.

Highlighting the desperation from the funding perspective, the idea of bitcoin-backed bonds has entered the conversation. "Bitbonds" have been touted as a potential solution to the federal government's fiscal cliff, wherein the U.S. Treasury needs to roll over $9 trillion in obligations over the next year. From a
Forbes article from April of this year, quoting a white paper by Andrew Hohns and Matthew Pines:

“If 132 million American households each invested $3,025,” the authors estimate, “20% of the $2 trillion BitBond issuance could be absorbed by domestic retail investors.”

The implications of this would be laughable, if not so dangerous, beginning with the idea that every household in America (there are 132 million according to the Federal Reserve) has $3,025 to invest. The vast majority of households in America don't even have $500 in savings for emergencies.

There are other, even more frightening conditions involving "Bitbonds", not limited to the initial coupon being one percent (1.00%), or the unthinkable prospect (in the authors' minds) that bitcoin could lose value. There's more. Readers are advised to peruse the article themselves, armed with ample whiskey or other adult beverage to ease the anger or trepidation that may arise. This is the kind of thinking being done at the highest levels of the federal government. The American people are absolutely doomed.

Moving on to matters of markets, it's worth noting that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has flat-lined for the past four sessions, closing Tuesday, August 19, at exactly the same level - 44,922.27 - as it did on Wednesday, August 13. That kind of finagling, takes real talent. At issue is the all-time high of 45,014.04 from December 4, 2024. It appears the stock market is in need of a dose of Viagra or some other stimulant to get, um, "up." It's just not happening.

Overnight, Toll Brothers (TOL) and Lazyboy (LZB) released second quarter earnings, and into Wednesday morning, prior to the open, Estee Lauder (EL), TJX Holdings (TJX), Lowe's (LOW), and Target (TGT) announced.

Briefly:

Toll Brothers (TOL) beat top and bottom line, stock trading down 1.6% pre-market.
Lazyboy (LZB) snoozed through the quarter, missing on EPS and revenue. Shares are down more than 20% prior to the opening bell.
Estee Lauder (EL) is taking a powder, with sales down for the quarter and guidance whining about tariff costs. Investors aren't putting lipstick on this piggie. Shares are down eight to nine percent.
Discount retailer TJX Holdings (TJX) bucked the overall retail trend, beating estimates and raising guidance. The stock is up more than four percent.
Lowe's (LOW) stock is ahead by three percent after same-store sales return to growth and the company raised its 2025 forecast.

Finally, Target (TGT), poster boy or girl (prefers "we", "they") for the limp brick-and-mortar retail sector, is falling again, down 10 percent in pre-market trading after beating lowered estimates. The company earned $2.05 per share, as opposed to $2.57 in the same period a year ago. Just about every metric was down, including same-store sales, off by -3.2%, and that's not inflation-adjusted. While the blame for poor performance ultimately lands at management's feet, the effect of higher prices because of tariffs cannot be excluded. Consumers, especially when they're being tapped out, will seek lower prices elsewhere or curtail spending to varying degrees.

Retaliating against non-woke naysayers of the company's imminent demise, Target plans to replace its current CEO, Brian Cornell, with current CFO Michael Fiddelke, a former intern. So, take that, MAGA-tards. Pride month is just 10 months away... oh!

Pre-market reaction to early headlines, sub-plots, and various social media posts has been muted, though they are at much higher levels than earlier. As the opening bell approaches Dow futures are down 22 points, NASDAQ futures off 60, with S&P futures down around 10 points.

Gold is bid, up more than $25, at $3,383.40. Silver is up as well, popping over $38 per ounce. WTI crude oil continues to flirt with the 50s, bottoming out at $61.68 per barrel overnight before rallying somewhat back above $62, for now. The national average for a gallon of gasoline at U.S. pumps has been stuck at $3.12 for three weeks.

America is so screwed. Our politicians are all sociopathic liars and crooks, Wall Street is a rigged casino, share prices of public companies have been boosted to unprecedented levels, and the economy is at stall speed. The silver lining, from the twisted Wall Street perspective shared by President Trump, is that a recession might cause the Federal Reserve to lower the federal funds target rate by a quarter or half percent in September and signal more cuts, which obviously would FIX EVERYTHING, though most people seem to be on pins and needles in anticipation of Jerome Powell's keynote at Friday's Jackson Hole conference.

Bad news may be good, but having your chocolate ration increased from 30 grams to 20 grams is shrink-flation on steroids.

--- John Maynard Keynes and George Orwell have entered the chat. ---

At the Close, Tuesday, August 19, 2025:
Dow: 44,922.27, +10.45 (+0.02%)
NASDAQ: 21,314.95, -314.82 (-1.46%)
S&P 500: 6,411.37, -37.78 (-0.59%)
NYSE Composite: 20,820.66, +4.42 (+0.02%)

Tuesday, August 19, 2025

Middle Class and Small Business Being Destroyed by Tariffs, Inflation, Monopolies, Government Corruption, Theft, and Incompetence

Similar to Friday's trading, there wasn't much in the way of volatility Monday, as President Trump welcomed Ukraine's Zelensky and a delegation of European leaders to the White House.

Stocks seem to be a background issue to world events at this juncture. With the meeting of Trump and EU leaders concluded, somewhat successfully, without much in the way of details, the waiting game will continue until there's some concrete agreement. Next up is a meeting between Zelensky and Putin, then, Zelensky, Putin, Trump, and the EU. Some day, maybe, they'll figure out that poking the Bear (Russia) wasn't a good idea.

Meantime, Home Depot (HD) posted adjusted EPS of $4.68, missing analyst estimates by six cents. Despite the miss, the home improvement retailer's earnings were slightly better than the same period a year ago, when EPS was reported as $4.60 per share.

With a share price of 394.70 as of Monday's close and trailing earnings of $14.93, Home Depot is trading at a multiple of 26.44, a premium level for a mature company. The stock peaked at 431 on December 6, 2024, just after the Dow - of which Home Depot is a component - made an all-time high of 45,014.04 on December 4. Both the Dow and HD have failed to mark new records even though the NASDAQ and S&P have powered to multiple new highs this year.

This kind of valuation is what usually leads to market crashes, but, in today's environment, the duopoly of Lowe's (LOW) and Home Depot, which dominates the market with a combined market share exceeding 60%, is allowed to continue while the middle class and small businesses suffer.

According to the new rules, the middle class must just accept whatever the government decrees. As such, democracy and capitalism are dead. It's only insider trading and big money keeping stocks at elevated levels. It shouldn't have been allowed to go on for this long, but it's likely to continue until it all blows up.

At the same time, Americans are forced to accept higher prices for imported goods, the U.S. Treasury collecting duties on everything and then wasting the money on all manner of warfare and welfare.

MAGA all you like. There are no breaks for Americans.

At the Close, Monday, August 18, 2025:
Dow: 44,911.82, -34.30 (-0.08%)
NASDAQ: 21,629.77, +6.80 (+0.03%)
S&P 500: 6,449.15, -0.65 (-0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 20,816.24, +13.56 (+0.07%)

Sunday, August 17, 2025

WEEKEND WRAP: Trump-Putin Meeting Produces Progress; SOSMPB as US Silver Pricing Mechanism; Jackson Hole; Dow Theory

The Alaska summit between Russian and American presidents, Putin and Trump, appeared to favor America meeting Russian demands that have been outlined in great detail since the middle of 2024 (Istanbul). Without saying so explicitly, President Trump will either seek input from or issue marching orders to Europe and Ukraine. Any backtracking by Trump should be viewed as further impediment to peace and a win for the neocons, who are losing on the battlefield and in public opinion.

Various media reports indicate that the full entourage of European dunderheads will accompany Ukrainian dictator, Zelensky to Washington for Monday's meeting with President Trump, including NATO Secretary General Rutte, French President Macron, UK Prime Minister Starmer, German Chancellor Merz, Italian Prime Minister Meloni, and Finnish President Stubb may also fly to Washington along with Zelenskyy. More names could be added.

A great deal of what transpires in global markets this coming week and beyond will be dictated by the outcome of Monday's White House confab, making matters difficult to discern until there's concrete evidence of either a continuation of hostilities with Russia or concessions toward ending the conflict.

Advice: Stay tuned.

Stocks

The good news is that the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week solidly in positive territory. The bad news is it once again failed to reach all-time highs on a closing basis. The expected boost from the revelation that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway initiated a large stake in United Health (UNH) was offest by 17 of the 30 Dow stocks finishing in the red on Friday. UNH did produce a gain of nearly 12 percent, but it wasn't enough to get it over the bar. Only six of 13 stocks on the Dow that gained on Friday were up more than one percent.

Friday's trading was jittery and had almost a random quality to it, with little conviction on the whole. Thus, the Dow remains the one major index that hasn't made a new high. It continues to trade below the December 4, 2024 close of 45,014.04. Along with that, the Dow Jones Transportation Average confirms the bearish primary trend according to Dow Theory, an art of market understanding that has become nearly extinct since the passing of its last great promoter, Richard Russell (July 22, 1924 – November 21, 2015), publisher of the Dow Theory Letter from 1952 until just before his passing.

One of the greatest and easiest derivations from Dow Theory is its natural ability to capture primary trends in a macro sense. While the components of the Dow Industrials change on irregular intervals, the addition of new components and deletion of others normally can be considered a function of keeping the index a reasonable reflection of American big business with a subtle leaning toward better-performing companies. After all, since the entire structure of Wall Street and stock markets is to sell shares of companies to everybody and anybody with money, it makes perfect sense that the averages and indices would purposely reflect the market as a place to improve and enhance one's wealth.

Given that the Dow Industrials and Transports are - like just about everything else - manipulated by large money managers, banking interests, large funds, and the government to some degree, the fact that both of the averages have NOT escaped from bear market conditions offers an inkling of suspicion as to the overall bullishness of the other indices. It may be nothing at all, or it could be important. At the very least, all-time highs on the more speculative indices - NASDAQ and S&P large caps - while old man Dow Jones hasn't reached in eight months should give one pause and some insight before rushing in to buy stocks. An interesting retrospective on Russell is provided via the San Diego Reader archives.

Adding to the fear factor should be consideration of the Shiller PE, or CAPE, which stands at 38.84, second-highest ever. Whether traders take cues from market indicators or continue with the bubble "greater fool" theory of 21st-century investing is more a matter of media narratives and current sentiment than anything representing discipline and proper risk assessments. The U.S. markets are clearly overheated, but so is the money supply, and it has to go somewhere.

Topping? Probably not, especially if Monday's White House meeting leans towards a positive resolution in Ukraine.

Since April's tariff pause, NASDAQ has had 13 of 19 weeks to the upside; 12 of 19 for the S&P, both indices soaring above their respective 50-day moving averages since the beginning of May.

Stocks reporting this week will feature second quarter earnings mainly of major retail outfits, including:

Monday (before open) Bitdeer (BTDR); (after close) Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Blink (BLNK)

Tuesday (before open) Medtronic (MDT), Viking Cruise Lines (VIK), Home Depot (HD); (after close) Toll Brothers (TOL), Lazyboy (LZB)

Wednesday (before open) Estee Lauder (EL), TJX Holdings (TJX), Analog Devices (ADI), Target (TGT), Baidu (BIDU); (after close) Coty (COTY), Nordson (NDSN)

Thursday (before open) Walmart (WMT), Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV); (after close) Ross Stores (ROST), Inutit (INTU), Workday (WDAY)

Friday (before open) BJ's Wholesale (BJ).

The economic data calendar will be fairly light, starting with Tuesday's Building Permits and Housing Starts for July. Thursday brings forth unemployment claims, weekly energy data from the EIA, and the economic reading of the Philly Fed.

Friday's keynote address by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Conference will be closely watched for indications on the Fed's outlook concerning inflation, employment, and interest rates. The promise of three rate cuts this year are more than likely to come up short, given that there are only three more FOMC meeting scheduled (September, November, December) and inflation continues stubbornly intractable.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
07/11/2025	4.37	4.39	4.47	4.41	4.42	4.31	4.09
07/18/2025	4.35	4.39	4.46	4.40	4.42	4.30	4.08
07/25/2025	4.37	4.46	4.46	4.42	4.42	4.31	4.09
08/01/2025	4.49	4.46	4.44	4.35	4.30	4.16	3.87
08/08/2025	4.48	4.43	4.39	4.32	4.27	4.15	3.93
08/15/2025	4.48	4.42	4.35	4.30	4.22	4.12	3.93

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
07/11/2025	3.90	3.86	3.99	4.19	4.43	4.96	4.96
07/18/2025	3.88	3.84	3.96	4.18	4.44	4.99	5.00
07/25/2025	3.91	3.86	3.95	4.15	4.40	4.92	4.92
08/01/2025	3.69	3.67	3.77	3.97	4.23	4.79	4.81
08/08/2025	3.76	3.70	3.84	4.03	4.27	4.84	4.85
08/15/2025	3.75	3.73	3.85	4.07	4.33	4.91	4.92

Treasury yields didn't move much over the course of the week, and the curve remains inverted from 30-day bills out to 10-year notes with the bottom at the 3-year (3.73%). From the 3-year note out to the 30-year bond, the curve steepens in normal fashion, though it's still rather alarming that it costs more to borrow for one month than it does for 10 years, the result of persistent high inflation. The Fed is reluctant to lower the base federal funds target rate out of fear that it woould lose what little control it exerts against inflationary forces in the first place.

Of course, if the Fed just stopped increasing the money supply, inflation would cease almost immediately, but that might cause a slowdown, otherwise known as a recession, and this Fed just can't have that, so they remain stuck in policy no-man's land. The people suggesting that the Fed will cut interest rates 25 or even 50 basis points at the September FOMC meeting (9/16-17) are apparently oblivious to the inflation data from the past week, with CPI remaining elevated and PPI coming in red hot.

The biggest moves in the treasury market came at the end of the curve, with 10-year notes up five basis points and 20 and 30-year bonds up seven. Demand for the longest maturities is waning, with buyers demanding more for their money. Once the tariff inflation hits - which could manifest anywhere from two months to six months out - expect the 30-year bond to scream past five percent and remain elevated.

Spreads:

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week near the lows, at $62.29, a drop of $1.06 from last week's close at $63.35 and off $4.97 from the close on June 1 of $67.26. Crude has hovered between correction and bear market since the January 15 peak of $78.71, currently down 20.86%, and seeking lower levels.

Crude's decline was tied primarily to a heavily-publicized meeting between America's President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which took place on Friday, the 15th, in Anchorage, Alaska, the idea being that if relations between the U.S. and Russia are normalized, the price of oil is going to bottom out around $55-62 per barrel, given fewer sanctions and open trade routes.

Oil's price decline may prove a boon to economies, especially those of Europe, given the outcome of the top-level discussions were positive. How the EU dimwits respond on Monday will play a huge role.

Gas prices have leveled off over the past month and remain near the low end. Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.12, the same as last week.

Since gas prices aren't moving, state-by-state numbers are a waste of time. Suffice it to say that California remains at the top, at $4.48 per gallon, with Washington a close second, $4.39. In the Northeast, New Hampsire is lowest ($2.98), Pennsylvania, highest ($3.21).

Illinois is the standout in the Midwest, at $3.40 a gallon, while Kansas ($2.82) is the lowest.

All of the South, except Florida, from North Carolina to New Mexico, is sub-$3.00, with Mississippi the lowest in the country, at $2.67. The Sunshine State checked in at $3.06 Sunday morning.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 22 states, one more than the prior week.

Bitcoin

This week: $118,309.30
Last week: $118,483.10
2 weeks ago: $113,838.20
6 months ago: $96,096.47
One year ago: $58,708.96
Five years ago: $11,676.19

Crypto is little more than slave money for the 21st century. Repackaged fiat in flashy technology, none of it has any intrinsic value of any kind. It cannot be seen, touched, mined, melted, torn, or altered in any physical manner. Crypto, and bitcoin in particular, is fully a figment of global imagination, hoarded by whales, who own 90% or more of the vacuous creations.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 88.95; last week: 89.80

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 7/18: $3,355.50
Gold price 7/25: $3,338.50
Gold price 8/1: $3,416.00
Gold price 8/8: $3,458.20
Gold price 8/15: $3,381.70

Silver price 7/18: $38.42
Silver price 7/25: $38.33
Silver price 8/1: $37.10
Silver price 8/8: $38.51
Silver price 8/15: $38.02

A serious effort was made this week by the usual suspects at the COMEX and LBMA, with extraordinary assistance from the Trump administration's tariff team of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, to keep the price of gold from advancing toward the inevitable $3,500 level. Last Friday, June 8, a not-so-subtle announcement was made that 1 kilogram and 1000-ounce gold bars would face tariffs of up to 39%, the country-specific rate for Switzerland, where 30-40% of gold bars worldwide are refined.

After futures rocketed to record levels above $3,500, the administration issued a hasty statement, offering "clarification" in days ahead. On Monday, August 11, President Trump posted on Truth Social, "Gold will not be tariffed." There was not further commentary. It was enough to calm markets, though a social media post doesn't exactly cut it as clarification or official notice. In any case, futures fell, some insiders allegedly made a few million, and the gold price stabilized back into its recent range between $3,300 and $3,400. This week's drop is probably nothing to be concerned about, given everybody knows the price of gold is going to increase as long as the U.S. government continues running huge deficits and inflation remains above the Fed's target of two percent.

Silver took a bit of a hit, though it also wasn't severe. These prices cannot be held down indefinitely. The global economy is being stretched to the point of no return and purchasing power in dollars, euros, yen, and pounds is rapidly declining. Precious metals are one of the few alternatives for wealth preservation during these turbulent times.

Sunday's survey of prices paid on eBay revealed the true nature of separation from the physical and paper markets, especially as it concerns silver. While the COMEX, LBMA, PPT, and any other actors working to suppress silver's price may be perfectly content to keep the contracts for 1000-troy-ounce bars settled in fiat around $38.00 per ounce, it makes perfect sense that smaller denominations for physical delivery, especially down to one-ounce increments, would price consistently higher. Money Daily's benchmark price rose to $46.08 this week, an all-time high.

Records which date back to January, 2021, employing a methodology that has not varied since inception, cannot be false and have consistently provided reliable price points for smaller, incremental, finished silver. While the difference between COMEX futures prices and physical sale prices is great, that variable has been consistent over time in consideration of labor, processing, and material employed in breaking down larger denominations into smaller ones, stamping, polishing, and delivery of finished products. The price also reflects the 13.6% fees charged by eBay on the total purchase. While it can reasonably be assumed that online dealers of size might receive better treatment in terms of fee structure, the exact terms are difficult to discern. The fee discounts probably amount to one to three percent.

Since free shipping is always one of the filters employed in determination of the SOSMPB, final prices paid on eBay sales represents true, delivered prices, without exception.

What this means for buyers and sellers in one of the world's largest open marketplaces for bullion (that being the eBay platform) is that the deviation and so-called "premium" on smaller denominations is reasonable, considering all variables. Anybody, from the collector looking to reduce his or her stack to the larger dealers such as Scottsdale, JM Bullion, Aydin, Liberty, Pinehurst, and many others, should expect sale prices roughly in line with Money Daily's SOSMPB, implying a premium of 20 percent or more, which is wholly in agreement with the processes, labor, and material costs outlined above.

Silver, although widely considered to be undervalued in many contexts and demonetized by central banking operations dating back at least 150 years, is still regarded by advocates as money and a perfectly rational store of value. The consistency of Money Daily's SOSMPB provides the proof and can be considered the North American standard for market pricing of one-troy-ounce finished silver. Gold prices, using the same metrics are also accurate and reliable, with physical prices consistently adding premia to COMEX-derived future paper prices. In the end, it's finished, delivered, physical goods that should project proper pricing. COMEX futures prices and LBMA daily fixes being nothing more than a guideline for bullion banks, central banks, and fiat-centric manipulators.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	41.94	49.95	45.30	44.99
1 oz silver bar:	39.80	49.99	46.78	47.25
1 oz gold coin:	3,396.20	3,586.80	3,503.58	3,489.00
1 oz gold bar:	3,481.21	3,562.25	3,503.50	3,495.00

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose sharply through week, to $46.08, a gain of $1.35 from the August 10 price of $44.73 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

Monday's meeting at the White House should provide some degree of understanding of how politics shapes the world going forward. Either the EU and Ukraine accept facts on the ground that Russia is winning massively or they fall back to their usual chants of "saving democracy" even though none exists in the blown-apart country. Since Putin and Trump appear to be the only sensible leaders concerned with ending the conflict, it's likely that the EU leadership will acquiesce to the Russian and American outlines for peace.

Details can be tricky and may contain some potholes and opportunity for the EU to sabotage the well-meaning of the Alaska summitt, though they realistically cannot prolong the war without substantial U.S. support. If Trump is at all serious, he will inform his European "partners" that the U.S. is out and a joint force of NATO and Russian observers and advisors will provide security guarantees of what remains of the rump country of Ukraine.

Otherwise, the status quo of stupidity and recalcitrance will remain, an outcome nobody outside of the EU-neocon-MIC junta will tolerate for much longer.

To say that the fate of the world hangs in the balance of Monday's White House conference may be putting it lightly. Those who want war will get their just deserts. Those seeking peace, as always, will have to guard their flanks.

At the Close, Friday, August 15, 2025:
Dow: 44,946.12, +34.86 (+0.08%)
NASDAQ: 21,622.98, -87.69 (-0.40%)
S&P 500: 6,449.80, -18.74 (-0.29%)
NYSE Composite: 20,802.68, -5.74 (-0.03%)

For the Week:
Dow: +770.51 (+1.74%)
NASDAQ: +172.96 (+0.81%)
S&P 500: +60.35 (+0.94%)
NYSE Composite: +278.44 (+1.36%)
Dow Transports: +321.71 (+2.10%)

Friday, August 15, 2025

With Alaska Trump-Putin Summit Proceeding, Stocks Set Up for Winning Week; Crude Crushed

Any declaration or communication stemming from the Trump-Putin talks in Alaska Friday are likely to be announced after markets close, given the difference in time zones between Anchorage and New York, leaving the stock pushers on their own to continue the folly from yesterday's flat line close.

As silly as Thursday's trading appeared, Friday's may be yet another exercise in fluffing up an already over-extended market, particularly the Dow Industrials, which have not yet reached new all-time highs (45,014.04, 12/4/24), as have its counterparts, the NASDAQ and S&P. Dow futures are up 260 points with the bell minutes away for no apparent reason other than Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway initiated a large position in beaten-down United Health (UNH), a Dow component.

As far as the week is concerned, it appears to be another winner for the pumpers, with, as of Thursday's close, the Dow up 735 points, the NASDAQ up 260, and the S&P ahead by 79. The U.S. dollar down against the pound, euro, and yen sets up the perfect week-end trade for higher highs.

Bitcoin has held ground at around $118,000, while gold and silver continue to languish at $3,389.00, and $37.90 per ounce, respectively. WTI crude is testing $62/barrel.

Here's hoping the BS war in Ukraine will come to an end soon. Godspeed to both Trump and Putin.

At the Close, Thursday, August 14, 2025:
Dow: 44,911.26, -11.01 (-0.02%)
NASDAQ: 21,710.67, -2.47 (-0.01%)
S&P 500: 6,468.54, +1.96 (+0.03%)
NYSE Composite: 20,808.43, -59.25 (-0.28%)

Thursday, August 14, 2025

PPI Red-Hot for July; Futures Slip Lower; Deere Sees Massive Revenue Shortfall, Tariff Expense; WTI Crude, Gold, Silver Down

NASDAQ and S&P 500 made new all-time highs on Wednesday. The Shiller PE (CAPE) topped out at 38.93, second highest ever. So, everything is just peachy, right?

Maybe. In a day, President Trump will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to see if there's a deal to be made on ending the conflict in Ukraine. Best of luck, Mr. Trump, since you're dealing from a position of weakness. Russia is winning, big time, advancing on all fronts, the Ukraine forces showing less and less resistance. Also, Zelensky, the self-appointed king of Ukraine, and most of the Eu nations don't want the war to end because it will make their leaders look bad and expose the lies and kickbacks and corruption that have endured over three-and-a-half years of conflict.

Trump should take whatever offer Putin puts forward, tell Europe they're on their own, withdraw all support for Ukraine. The president doesn't need to make a "deal" with Russia. All he has to do is defy the deep state, MIC, Europe, and the Nazi militants in Ukraine. Easier said than done, but wish him luck, anyway.

What befalls America, Ukraine, Russia, and the rest of the world after Friday's outcome will hopefully be better than what has come before. Trump needs to get America out of this situation, lest it continues to its natural conclusions, which are more dead Ukrainians, Russia taking all of Ukraine, and lots of animosity and whining from America's "friends" in Europe.

Most people with brains (PWBs) - a declining population - want the U.S. out of Ukraine. Those who do not have vested interests, like their positions of power (EU leaders), jobs (NATO), graft and kickbacks from military contractors (congress), and the cumulative intelligence of a flea circus (not to demean fleas, but they are pests).

The world waits and watches.

This morning the BLS - ever vigilant at delivering cooked statistics for the Wall Street horde and political wonks - released their findings with the July Producer Price Index, showing:

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.9 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in June and moved up 0.4 percent in May. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended in July, the largest 12-month increase since rising 3.4 percent in February 2025.
Within final demand, more than three-quarters of the broad-based advance in July can be traced to the index for final demand services, which rose 1.1 percent. Prices for final demand goods increased 0.7 percent.
The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.6 percent in July, the largest increase since rising 0.9 percent in March 2022. For the 12 months ended in July, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.8 percent.

So, was that good news? Bad news which will be interpreted as good news so the Fed can lower interest rates? Utter baloney wrapped in cat detritus? All three?

Apparently, door number two: bad news. Really bad news. Inflation is kicking up, picking up steam. Those tariffs aren't going to cause inflation, none. No siree.

Stock futures dropped like rocks dropped from an overpass. Nearing 9:00 am ET, Dow futures are down 165 points; NASDAQ futures off 105; S&P futures off 25.

The index for final demand services roared up 1.1 percent in July, the largest move higher since rising 1.3 percent in March 2022. Oops. Prices for final demand goods moved up 0.7 percent in July, the largest gain since rising 0.7 percent in January. Double oops. Fruit loops.

It's not all bad, though. These price increases at the producer level will be passed along to consumers who cannot afford them, which has been predicted all along by those snarky PWBs.

Things are going so well that John Deere Co. (DE), makers of farm and lawn and garden equipment reported earnings Thursday morning, sending the stock down seven percent in the pre-market.

The company reported for its three months ended July 27, a profit of $1.29 billion, compared with $1.73 billion a year earlier. Quarterly earnings of $4.75 a share came in ahead of the $4.58 a share that analysts polled by FactSet expected.

That revenue shortfall is a killer. The company says it is due to the large amount of used equipment on the market. Maybe it has something to do with people not capable of shelling out $4,500 for a lawn tractor. The company also lowered guidance and mentioned that they would have to deal with about $500 in tariff-related costs. So, in addition to not selling enough merchandise, the company will be cutting its margins, or passing along those extra costs to consumers, otherwise known as cutting one's own throat.

Peachy ain't the word for it. Something else. Rhymes with "buck."

WTI crude dropped below $63 a barrel this week and was as low as $61.37, due to inventory builds. No surprise that crude oil is at 2 1/2-month lows. God and silver are still down. Meh. Keep stacking.

At the Close, Wednesday, August 13, 2025:
Dow: 44,922.27, +463.66 (+1.04%)
NASDAQ: 21,713.14, +31.24 (+0.14%)
S&P 500: 6,466.58, +20.82 (+0.32%)
NYSE Composite: 20,867.67, +157.95 (+0.76%)

Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Trump-Putin Meeting May Serve as Catalyst Toward New Stock Market Highs; Gold, Silver Recovering After Trump Signal

Editor's Note: Money Daily may have been a bit hasty to dismiss the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russia President Vladimir Putin. After viewing Tuesday's live Duran podcast with Robert Barnes, a more positive picture comes into focus. The summit, at least according to Barnes and the Duran hosts, appears to have been well-planned and should provide a framework for peace and an "off-ramp" for Trump and America's involvement in the conflict. The entire podcast is embedded below. While doom and gloom outlooks proliferate, they often do not convulse as badly as imagined. Neither should one's hopes get too high on the positive side. We all shall see soon enough.

Current Shiller PE Ratio: 38.80 +0.42 (1.10%) 4:00 PM EDT, Tue Aug 12

Once again, this measure of economic performance stands at the second-highest level in history. In order to achieve any significant memorial in the annals of American enterprise, the S&P 500 needs only to exceed 7,200 this year, which it is likely to do.

Then, the most preposterous valuations of equity markets ever will become a reality from which there is no escape, no excuse, and no apology. It is the only logical place for U.S. stocks to go. Only then, and after the ultimate correction, which is as probable as the sun rising in the east, will there be cause for change in the manner in which the United States - and the rest of the world - operates in financial markets.

The "markets" as they used to be known, serve ultimately the richest of the rich, the upper one percent of the wealthiest interests on the planet. The corporate titans and their multi-million dollar salaries will have their Nirvana, perhaps multiple exogenous experiences that separate them from the rest of the plebeian horde. Why not? It can't get much more horrible than 90 percent of the people in a country impoverished, their wealth stolen by a combination of taxation, theft, extortion, subjugation, and inflation, the most insidious villain of them all. Conditions in various parts of the rest of the world are even more miserable. Europe remains the gold standard for government incompetence at the expense of the masses.

Thankfully, America is large and very dynamic. Financial engineering, tokenization of the currency, surveillance of everything that moves can only go so far. There is a quiet but growing resistance to laws, regulations, the Nanny State, and government in general at all levels. A larger movement is occurring in Washington, D.C.

It may have been in 1962, or 1971, or 2001, or 2008 that people turned their backs on the government of the United States. Whatever the start date is immaterial. It is an ongoing revolution. The current system of debt-based currency and slavish conditions for the general working population are nearing an end. Maybe not today, maybe not even in ten years, but the direction is clear. The system put in place by an irresponsible congress in 1913, establishing the Federal Reserve System and a national income tax - both clearly unconstitutional - are going to end and that end is not likely to be a pleasant one for many. It's probably going to take longer than most people think, so there is still time to make arrangements for the funeral of the U.S. dollar and its hegemonic relationship with the rest of the world.

That said, markets continue to stumble forward. The U.S. economy, a shadow of its former self, is entirely overvalued by the snake oil salesmen of Wall Street and the prostitutes in congress, who have benefitted from it the most. The time draws near for significant change.

The S&P and NASDAQ both set new highs on Tuesday, and futures are pointing to another extremely positive open. Dow futures are up 154 points; NASDAQ futures ahead by 85, and S&P futures are 18 points higher.

Should the meeting between Trump and Putin be a success, expect the stock market to move much higher, especially if the fighting actually ceases. Even if the meeting only establishes a framework for peace in Ukraine, it would serve as a positive development.

Gold and silver are recovering after President Trump posted on social media that gold will not be subject to tariffs, which implies that silver will neither. The White House last week noted that there would be clarification on the tariff status of gold imports. Trump's posting, though completely out of any context may be all that's offered given the frantic conditions in D.C.

Until then, it appears that the only reasonable strategy for the bulk of investors is to buy stocks with both hands.

At the Close, Tuesday, August 12, 2025:
Dow: 44,458.61, +483.52 (+1.10%)
NASDAQ: 21,681.90, +296.50 (+1.39%)
S&P 500: 6,445.76, +72.31 (+1.13%)
NYSE Composite: 20,709.73, +226.57 (+1.11%)

Here's the full, very informative Duran podcast from Tuesday night:

Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Markets Are Now in Complete Disarray; Higher Inflation Sends Stocks Soaring; Precious Metals Shunned; Peace in Ukraine? Yeah, Sure

On the heels of a solid week of gains, institutional investors took some money off the table Monday, sending stocks to small losses on the major exchanges.

Perhaps looking ahead to Tuesday morning's CPI reading for July, they were probably right in doing so, because when the numbers were announced an hour before the opening bell, the data showed that inflation rose by the most in six months.

The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics - the same government agency that routinely fudges employment numbers in their monthly non-far payroll releases - showed that "core" inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 3.1% over the past year in July, ahead of June's 2.9% increase and an indication that tariffs are indeed causing some upwards price pressure.

Monthly core prices increased 0.3%, also ahead of last month's 0.2% gain, at the highest level in six months. Increases in shelter and food costs were offset only by lower fuel costs as gas prices moderated in July.

This data in no way, shape, or form gives the Federal Reserve any rationale to lower interest rates, as President Trump continues to urge. If anything, the FOMC, at their September meeting may consider raising the federal funds rate to slow down inflation, which has apparently now-reignited.

While interest rates are considered the Fed's most effective weapon in its war against inflation (don't be fooled, they love inflation. Just look at the last 112 years), it's more likely to further strangle the economy, which, according to anecdotal evidence, has been slowing for the better part of a year.

As usual, upon the release of the BLS data, stock futures exploded to the upside, because on Wall Street, any news - good or bad - is a reason to rally. The fact that the CPI data for July was close to expectations does not imply that it was necessarily good, but the horde of traders and speculators that populate lower Manhattan would like retail investors to believe the economy is booming and those higher prices at stores and restaurants are but figments of their overactive imaginations.

What a load of hogwash are these so-called "markets." Should stocks open higher, as the futures are presaging, there's a very good possibility or strong probability that they will reverse course and end lower for a second straight session.

With a half hour until the open, Dow futures are higher by 250 points; NASDAQ futures ahead by 153; and, S&P futures galloping upwards by 36 points.

Interestingly, after being slapped down on Monday in a massive short-selling spree on the COMEX, gold is beginning to show signs of life before the opening bell, down only $4.00 at $3,400. Gold advocates and traders in precious metals are still awaiting word from the administration concerning the recent ruling that 39% tariffs would apply to 1 kilogram and 1000-troy-ounce gold bars, those most-often required for trade and futures gamesmanship.

President Trump signaled on Truth Social yesterday that gold would not be tariffed, but the post fell on deaf ears. Gold did not budge at all, probably because the market now understands that Trump's big mouth and social media posts are meaningless, and more than likely designed only to move markets so that insiders can capitalize.

The messaging is clear as day: "Buy more stocks, people. By no means should anybody buy gold, or, dread, silver. Who needs ancient relics or pet rocks, anyhow?"

Additionally, members of Trump's administration are slowly beginning to walk back the importance of the "conference" with Putin, slated for Friday, somewhere in Alaska. It's a big f--ing state, people. Good chance it won't happen at all, and besides, between neocon influence, Europe's steady recalcitrance, and Zelensky's refusal to accept reality, the chances for any kind of breakthrough are practically nil.

Carry on. Nothing to see here. Absolutely nothing.

At the Close, Monday, August 11, 2025:
Dow: 43,975.09, -200.52 (-0.45%)
NASDAQ: 21,385.40, -64.62 (-0.30%)
S&P 500: 6,373.45, -16.00 (-0.25%)
NYSE Composite: 20,483.16, -41.09 (-0.20%)

Sunday, August 10, 2025

WEEKEND WRAP: American Exceptionalism Is Being Measured by Price, Not Value; Gold Bounding; Oil Drops on U.S.-Russia Talk Proposal; the West is Bankrupt

With most of the unwashed masses focused on a meeting this coming Friday in Alaska between President Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin, the instability from Trump's tariffs was interrupted by a sublime sense of calm late in the week.

Those expecting the U.S. President and Russia to make any kind of lasting deal on ending the conflct in Ukraine are likely to be disappointed by this time next week. Neocon and European grumblings have already been received, Zelensky called the proposals "dead", but the mainstream media will continue to push the hope and change rhetoric all the way to the summit, which means that happiness, flower petals, skittle-pooping unicorns, and AI hype is likely to dominate trading and noise in the week ahead.

Stocks aren't yet high enough for anybody to back off or jump off the "America First" bandwagon. Tariffs have just scratched the surface of American exceptionalism, which is soon to be measured by how high prices for manufactured goods, cars, coffee, gold, and many non-essentials can go.

Somebody once said, "a little inflation is a good thing." It was probably some dunce like George W. Bush or other self-absorbed political nitwit. A little inflation being a good thing means two to three percent, which is touted by the Federal Reserve, most all members of congress, presidents dating back to LBJ, and most media commentators doubling or tripling the price every 15 to 20 years, so that after 50 years - that would be 1975 in this case, prices for anything and everything in the United States have at least increased by 10-12 times.

The average sale price of a new car in 1975 was under $5000 in 1975. Today, it's $48,000. A gallon of gas was around 50 cents. Today, $3.13 and up, except in the southeast. A house cost, on average, $42,000. Today, it's 10 times that. A postage stamp was 10 cents in 1973. The USPS just raised the price to 73 cents. In a few years it is sure to be over a dollar. The price of a dozen eggs in 1975 compared to today... don't ask.

America is exceptional in one regard. Exceptionally easy to fool and abuse by the elite governing class. Weimerica approaches.

Stocks

U.S. stocks had a solid week with all the majors sporting gains. The S&P closed Friday just pennies from a new all-time high, while the NASDAQ closed out the week at a record level (21,450.02). Notably, the Dow Jones Industrials and Transports continue to lag, neither making new highs since December 4 for the Dow, and November 25 for the Trannies. Old hat Dow Theory purports that these indices remain in a primary bearish pattern. Effects on the rest of the market are not correlated.

Either investors have cooled on these small indices (the Industrials are only 30 stocks; the transports but 20) or the Magnificent 7 and the NASDAQ are heading in a 1999 direction, straight off the page. It's an odd comparison, similar to the dotcom era "new economy vs. old economy" trope, but the suggestion is that not everything in the U.S. economy is experiencing smooth sailing. The NASDAQ and S&P, in particular, carry some of the most extreme valuations seen since the crash of 2008.

The Shiller PE (CAPE) ended the week at 38.45, just below the October 2011 reading of 38.58, the second highest ever. Considering prospects for end of summer trading to be genuinely positive, the CAPE should continue to approach the bubble levels of the dotcom boom, which peaked at the highest level ever, 44.19, in November 1999.

For the week, Mag7 stocks were led by Apple's 12% gain, but Palantir (PLTR) outshone them all after releasing second quarter earnings with an 18% surge in share price. The company shows trailing earnings of 46 cents, putting this tech darling at a PE of 406, quite speculative, but that's just how Wall Street rolls these days.

Stocks reporting this week will not be among the most important as earnings season for second quarter results is nearly at an end. Here's the short list:

Monday (before open) Barrick (B), Diversified Energy ((DEC); (after close) AMC Entertainment (AMC), Plug Power (PLUG), GoPro (GPRO)

Tuesday (before open) Cardinal Health (CAM), Paysafe (PSFE) Circle Internet Group (CRCL); (after close) CAVA (CAVA), H&R Block (HRB); Zevra Theraputics (ZVRA)

Wednesday (before open) Endeavour Silver (EXK), Innoviz Technologies (INVZ); (after close) Cisco (CSCO), Red Robin (RRGB), Equinox Gold (EQX), Aethlon Medical (AEMD)

Thursday (before open) JD.Com (JD), John Deere (DE), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Birkenstock (BIRK)First Majestic (AG) ; (after close) Applied Materials (AMAT), Sandisk (SNDK), Gambling.com (GAMB)

Friday (before open) VolitionRX (VNRX); BitFuFu (FUFU), Flowers Foods (FLO).

The economic data calendar will be fairly busy with the focus on Tuesday's July CPI and Thursday's PPI. On Wednesday, the weekly EIA report is released with crude and distillate output and U.S. rig counts. Thursday also has weekly unemployment claims before the open.

A load of data drops on Friday, including July Retail Sales, Export Prices, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
07/03/2025	4.35	4.43	4.50	4.42	4.41	4.34	4.07
07/11/2025	4.37	4.39	4.47	4.41	4.42	4.31	4.09
07/18/2025	4.35	4.39	4.46	4.40	4.42	4.30	4.08
07/25/2025	4.37	4.46	4.46	4.42	4.42	4.31	4.09
08/01/2025	4.49	4.46	4.44	4.35	4.30	4.16	3.87
08/08/2025	4.48	4.43	4.39	4.32	4.27	4.15	3.93

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
07/03/2025	3.88	3.84	3.94	4.12	4.35	4.87	4.86
07/11/2025	3.90	3.86	3.99	4.19	4.43	4.96	4.96
07/18/2025	3.88	3.84	3.96	4.18	4.44	4.99	5.00
07/25/2025	3.91	3.86	3.95	4.15	4.40	4.92	4.92
08/01/2025	3.69	3.67	3.77	3.97	4.23	4.79	4.81
08/08/2025	3.76	3.70	3.84	4.03	4.27	4.84	4.85

With everybody jumping back into stocks, Treasury yields declined modestly, the most pronounced a seven basis point move on 2-year and 5-year notes, to 3.76% and 3.84%, respectively.

The spread on 2s-10s remained elevated at +51, while full spectrum widened to +37.

The yield curve remains inverted from 30-days out to 10 years, sloping lower to 3-year notes, then rising from 3.84% on 5-year notes out to 4.85% on the 30-year bond.

Since purchases of treasuries are going to soon be (already happening) done by stablecoins, the entire treasury complex may soon become largely irrelevant, but not until everybody is suckered into the most massive Ponzi scheme ever created.

Spreads:

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week near the lows, at $63.35, a loss of nearly $4.00 from last Friday's close of $67.26. Crude's decline was tied primarily to a heavily-publicized meeting between America's President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, scheduled for this coming Friday, the 15th, somewhere in Alaska, though the exact location has yet to be revealed, the purpose of which is to end the conflict in Ukraine with some sort of deal.

Oil's price decline may prove to be very temporary, depending on the outcome of the top-level discussions.

Gas prices have leveled off over the past month and remain near the low end. Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.12, just a penny lower than the past two weeks.

As usual, California has the highest prices in the country, $4.48, up one cent on the week.

Oklahoma ($2.66) has the lowest prices at the pump, followed closely by Mississippi ($2.67). Texas is next at $2.68. South Carolina comes in at $2.76, followed by Tennessee and Alabama at $2.77 on Sunday. Arkansas ($2.78) is lower than North Carolina ($2.86) and Georgia ($2.88), while Florida ($3.02) ia up a dime from last week.

Pennsylvania ($3.23) was a penny cheaper this week, leading the northeast. All northeast states are above $3.00, from New Hampshire ($3.01) to Maryland at $3.16.

Midwest states were topped by Illinois ($3.37), the price dropping seven cents on the week. Kansas ($2.85) is the lowest in the region, followed by North Dakota ($2.86), Missouri and Wisconsin ($2.87). Other states n the region below $3 include Iowa ($2.90), Nebraska ($2.92), South Dakota and Kentucky ($2.93), Ohio ($2.94), Minnesota ($2.95). Indiana s at $3.13 and Michigan the highest in the region at $3.23.

Along with California, Washington ($4.49) is the only other one above $4, as Oregon remained a few cents below, at $3.97. Nevada ($3.73) was up two cents. Arizona ($3.17) is stable, but is still priced more than 30 cents higher than neighboring New Mexico at $2.83. Idaho ($3.53) was up a dime, while Utah ($3.33) was virtually unchanged.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 21 states, equal to last week.

Bitcoin

This week: $118,483.10
Last week: $113,838.20
2 weeks ago: $118,275.80
6 months ago: $96,362.31
One year ago: $60,423.20
Five years ago: $11,860.80

Bitcoin and all crypto coins, alt-coins, and stablecoins are all frauds. So are Federal Reserve Notes, which are basic counterfeit. So, enjoy living in a fake world. See directly below about real money.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 89.80; last week: 92.08

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 7/11: $3,370.30
Gold price 7/18: $3,355.50
Gold price 7/25: $3,338.50
Gold price 8/1: $3,416.00
Gold price 8/8: $3,458.20

Silver price 7/11: $39.08
Silver price 7/18: $38.42
Silver price 7/25: $38.33
Silver price 8/1: $37.10
Silver price 8/8: $38.51

After silver was severely beaten down on the COMEX last week, it recovered some ground, gaining $1.41 per ounce this week. Of course, COMEX prices being about as reliable as BLS employment figures, prices elsewhere in the world, especially on the Shanghai Futures and Metals Exchanges, are at a premium by comparison. Silver actually rose above $41 per ounce in Shanghai on July 27 and closed out this week at $40.05. Comparing the Shanghai price to spot is even more extreme. Spot silver stood at 38.27 at Friday's market close.

In coming months, expect prices for both gold and silver to become less reliant on COMEX and London Fix prices, as the world diverges into BRICS vs. Western economies. Russia's Saint-Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPIMEX) has announced plans to sell gold futures contracts by the end of the year.

Clouding the precious metals complex even further from the normal price-suppression tactics was a tariff announcement from the Trump administration on Thursday (8/7), reclassifying 1 kilogram and 100-troy-ounce Swiss gold bars and placing a 39% tariff on them. Shipments of these standard bars were immediately halted by suppliers as the price on the COMEX shot to record levels over $4500 an ounce.

On Friday, the administration said it would issue a "clarification" in coming days. Reeking of blatant market manipulation, dealers in Swiss bars will not ship to the United States until they're assured of the tariff impact. Previously, those standard bars had been exempt from tariffs. The markets are not fond of disruptions such as this and if the Trump administration continues to toy with price discovery in such a manner, the entire structure of the COMEX and trading on the CME setting global prices will become extinct, which, after all is said and done, would be the preference of most gold and silver advocates.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	38.00	49.62	43.46	42.98
1 oz silver bar:	38.00	51.95	46.28	46.20
1 oz gold coin:	3,460.65	3,686.16	3,560.99	3,542.30
1 oz gold bar:	3,541.93	3,671.07	3,579.47	3,571.23

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose over the course of the week, to $44.73, a gain of 82 cents from the August 3 price of $43.91 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

Prepare. Buy as much gold, silver, ammo, liquor, cigarettes, seeds, gas, and storable food as possible. The levels of stupidity and gullibility have reached epic proportions in the United States. Inflation has not subsided and is not likely to any time soon. Hope is not an investment strategy.

At the Close, Friday, August 8, 2025:
Dow: 44,175.61, +206.97 (+0.47%)
NASDAQ: 21,450.02, +207.32 (+0.98%)
S&P 500: 6,389.45, +49.45 (+0.78%)
NYSE Composite: 20,524.24, +58.50 (+0.29%)

For the Week:
Dow: +587.03 (+1.35%)
NASDAQ: +789.99 (+3.87%)
S&P 500: +151.44 (+2.43%)
NYSE Composite: +256.55 (+1.27%)
Dow Transports: +236.17 (+1.56%)

Friday, August 8, 2025

The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End? Trump Tariffs and the America First Policy Institute; Dow Theory Says Bears are Hungry

Now that President Trump's tariffs have become actively enforced, the question on the minds of macro-oriented investors is whether this marks the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end.

On one hand, having global import tariffs in place suggests that the period of uncertainty that began in April has ended in August and that any further changes in trade policy will be incremental and/or inconsequential.

Peering out over the horizon of the remainder of the second half of 2025 and into 2026, weighing the effects of tariffs on countries exporting to the U.S., the federal government, and U.S. consumers would appear to indicate that of the three, there is only one winner, that being the almighty federal government, which will benefit from increased revenues.

Countries trading with the United States will undoubtedly suffer. From India to Switzerland to Brazil, officials are already bracing for a blow to employment among firms doing business with the U.S. and planning or already implementing policies to shore up affected businesses.

As far as U.S. consumers are concerned, tariffs - despite being told that inflation is close to two percent and tariffs won't raise prices - just about everything and anything that is imported, other than oil and gas, will cost more tomorrow than it did yesterday.

What's troubling about these implications is that while the government will be taking in possibly as much as $300 billion in tariff revenue this year, and maybe up to $500 billion next year, neither the president nor congress has shown any inclination toward controlling their own spending, which also contributes mightily to inflation. Whether the federal government gets its money from individual taxpayers, corporations, or tariffs, they still spend much more than they receive, making the idea that giving them more money will somehow work out towards a reduction in spending look incredibly naive.

Congress will just spend more on defense, social programs, pet projects of senators and house members and other associated nonsense, none of which benefits the American public, which would like to see small business prosper, roads and bridges repaired, and housing becoming more affordable.

None of those things will happen under the current regime and their trade wars, saber rattling, and actual mass destruction of various enemies.

So, this period of time, in which congress is away on a month-long vacation, should be considered the beginning of the end because conditions for average Americans are likely not to improve, but decline further. For those on the lower rungs of the wealth ladder, the poor and destitute, their lives have already become more miserable, with the government imposing work requirements on recipients of SNAP benefits (food stamps). That policy may actually be a blessing in disguise, forcing the terminally-needy to actually earn a living rather than live off the dole.

With more money in the hands of the government and, effectively, less in the hands of the people via inflation, the potential for misuse and mayhem is large. Everybody already knows - or should know - that the federal government and its massive bureaucracy is completely corrupt. The thought that those with their hands already in the cookie jar would stop taking treats now that there's more of them is ludicrous.

At the end of day, individuals will determine public policy, not some wonks at the America First Policy Institute, the non-profit think tank that formulates the president's policy agenda. These people spend their waking hours writing white papers that define and praise their own agendas, dining at the best restaurants in Washington, D.C., all on the dimes of wealthy contributors who fuel their obsessions.

From their perspective, President Trump can do no wrong, and all policy initiatives are spot on, great and wonderful benefits for the prosperity of ~~their contrubutors~~ the American people. Perusing the website linked above should be a duty of all Americans because these are the top-down people and policies shaping the future of America and consequently much of the rest of the world.

The president doesn't make policy. the people at the America First Policy Institute do. If they're right, and have the best interests of the United States and its people top of mind, great. Otherwise, well, we'll just have to wait and see, won't we?

Meanwhile, Wall Street churns along, though from a Dow Theory perspective, stocks are still enjoying what amounts to a sugar rush. after the initial announcement of the tariff policy in April, stocks fell quickly and were only revived when Trump announced a 90-day pause just a week later. Now that the tariffs are actually in place, shouldn't stocks return to those earlier depths. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average are the only two major indices that have failed to make new highs following the April selloff.

What that means in Dow Theory terms is that the primary trend has not changed, and that bear market conditions are still in effect. The transports confirm this in a rather large way. Except for a few days in July, the trannies have been in correction territory since the end of February. With the industrials dipping below 44,000 on Thursday, the stage is set for further losses and possible spillover effects to the S&P and NASDAQ.

So far for the week, through Thursday's close, the scorecard favors the bulls, with the Dow up 380 points, NASDAQ up 592, and the S&P ahead by 102 points.

Stock futures are up, gold and silver are bid after Trump slapped 39% tariffs on gold bars from Switzerland, and WTI crude fell below $64 on Thursday and is now trending lower.

(BTW: Suki, the dog with the tic, is fine. The tic was removed and killed.)

Fun week, huh?

At the Close, Thursday, August 7, 2025:
Dow: 43,968.64, -224.48 (-0.51%)
NASDAQ: 21,242.70, +73.27 (+0.35%)
S&P 500: 6,340.00, -5.06 (-0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 20,465.75, -23.31 (-0.11%)

Thursday, August 7, 2025

Trump Carving Out Items in Tariffs; More Companies Reporting Positive 2Q Results; Dog has Tic (sorry)

Editor's Note: Apologies for the short post. Animal emergency. Tic on dog. Needs to go to vet.

Different Day, Same Story (DDSS).

Stock futures are ripping higher as companies report generally-positive second quarter results.

Companies that reported after the close Thursday include AppLovin (APP), Draft Kings (DKNG), and Jack In the Box (JACK). Before the opening bell Thursday, Lilly (LILY), Conoco Phillips (COP), and Sony (SONY) have reported and are in focus.

WTI crude oil is at $64.79, the lowest since June 24. Gold and silver are being bid. Gold, $3,456.70; Silver, $38.51.

Trump is carving out items from tariffs, like chips, coffee, etc. What's the damn point?

At the Close, Wednesday, August 6, 2025:
Dow: 44,193.12, +81.38 (+0.18%)
NASDAQ: 21,169.42, +252.87 (+1.21%)
S&P 500: 6,345.06, +45.87 (+0.73%)
NYSE Composite: 20,489.05, +31.96 (+0.16%)

Wednesday, August 6, 2025

Big Caps, McDonald's, Disney Show Gains while Tech Stocks Take a Hit on AI Hype Under-Delivering

Stocks took a turn for the worse on Tuesday, reacting to somewhat conflicting data from the July Services ISM Report On Business.

The key data was:

Business Activity Index: 52.6%
New Orders Index: 50.3%
Employment Index: 46.4%
Supplier Deliveries Index: 51%

While the overall business activity was well beyond the breakeven of 50%, it was lower than the reading of 54.2 percent recorded in June. New orders and employment also suggested that contraction might be on the horizon, with employment in contraction territory for the second month in a row and the fourth time in the last five months.

The key take-away, delivered by Steve Miller, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Business Survey Committee, was:

“July’s PMI® level continues to reflect slow growth, and survey respondents indicated that seasonal and weather factors had negative impacts on business. The Employment Index’s continued contraction and faster expansion of the Prices Index are worrisome developments. The New Exports (a 3.2-percentage point decrease in July) and Imports (a 5.8-point drop) indexes, which both moved from expansion to contraction, provided signals that tariff tensions are impacting global trade. However, continued expansion in the Business Activity and New Orders indexes, together with a slight improvement in the Backlog of Orders Index, highlight the resilience of the U.S. services sector. Some respondents noted increased transportation congestion that supported the ‘slower’ Supplier Deliveries Index reading, another sign that activity levels are expanding. The most common topic among survey panelists remained tariff-related impacts, with a noticeable increase in commodities listed as up in price.”

Since the ISM is not a government agency, Wall Street takes their surveys seriously, which, in this case, leaned negatively.

On the other hand, earnings from major companies continue to roll out, and they have been mostly bullish.

Disney (DIS), a Dow component, reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.61, beating the $1.46 expected by analysts polled by Bloomberg. Earnings increased from $1.39 from a year ago. Shares are flat heading into the open.

McDonald's (MCD), also a Dow 30 component, announced second quarter EPS of $3.19, better than estimates, sending shares higher by nearly four percent before the bell.

Shopify (SHOP) blew away analyst estimates, issued strong forward guidance, and is trading more then 18% higher in the pre-market.

UBER (UBER) announced earnings of 0.63 per share, narrowly beating estimates, and also announced a stock buyback, but shares are down slightly heading toward the cash open.

Snap Inc. (SNAP) continued to suffer, with a net loss of $263 million for the quarter, compared to $249 million in the prior year. Reporting after the close Tuesday, the company continues to struggle, losing 16 cents per share.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is down five percent in the pre-market after beating on revenue but missing on EPS. Related, Super Micro Computer (SMC), is being absolutely slammed, down 16%, as cracks begin to widen in the AI narrative.

It appears, from these reports, that tech stocks are beginning to fade, while big cap, long-standing companies, as evidenced by the results from Disney and McDonald's, are better suited to navigate the current environment.

Futures are up for stocks. Gold and silver slightly lower. WTI crude hit $65.15 overnight, but is rallying back above $66, as President Trump’s deadline for Russia to make peace in Ukraine approaches, with more sanctions in the U.S. pipeline.

It's a very mixed bag, especially when factoring in the tariff situation and global politics.

At the Close, Tuesday, August 5, 2025:
Dow: 44,111.74, -61.90 (-0.14%)
NASDAQ: 20,916.55, -137.03 (-0.65%)
S&P 500: 6,299.19, -30.75 (-0.49%)
NYSE Composite: 20,457.10, -31.76 (-0.16%)

Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Stocks Shrug Off Jobs, Friday's Losses, Open Week with Massive Gains as Earnings Come into Focus

After stocks swooned Friday on the poor July jobs figure of 73,000 and massive revisions to May and June, stocks started off the new week Monday with massive gains.

Makes perfect sense in an imperfect world.

Here's Julia Louis-Dreyfus explaining Non-Farm Payrolls, GDP estimates, mainstream media, and politicians in general.

It being the height of earnings season, Wall Street actually could care less if people have jobs, are losing jobs, need jobs, or don't do their jobs. Profits matter and this week will see more than 100 of the S&P 500 post second quarter results.

There are simply too many reporting to adequately cover them all, but here are a few highlights from companies reporting after the close Monday and before the open Tuesday.

Palantir (PLTR), a Wall Street darling, set a revenue record, boosted guidance and is ahead by more than seven percent pre-market.

Pfizer (PFE) boosted its outlook based on cutting payroll and a strong second quarter. The stock is up two percent in early trading.

Dow component, Caterpillar (CAT) missed on the bottom line and suggested a $1.5 billion hit on tariff issues. Shares are lower, but only by less than one percent.

British Petroleum (BP) beat estimates and BP made its biggest oil and gas discovery in 25 years off coast of Brazil, sending shares up about one percent. At $32 per share, BP may be turning things around.

Chemical giant, Dupont (DD) exceeded estimates and is trading more than five percent higher before the opening bell.

Hotelier Marriott (MAR) posted net income of $2.78 per share. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring gains, came to $2.65 per share, beating estimates by a penny. Investors are unsatisfied with soft guidance and have sent shares down by one percent.

Stock futures are modestly higher across the board. Gold is recovering from an early-morning setback, but trading around $3,420. Silver is up 21 cents at $37.54.

At the Close, Monday, August 4, 2025:
Dow: 44,173.64, +585.06 (+1.34%)
NASDAQ: 21,053.58, +403.45 (+1.95%)
S&P 500: 6,329.94, +91.93 (+1.47%)
NYSE Composite: 20,488.86, +221.17 (+1.09%)

Money Daily

Sunday, August 24, 2025

WEEKEND WRAP: Dovish Powell Sparks Massive Asset Rally; Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver, Oil All Up Sharply; Inflation Will Rise

Friday, August 22, 2025

Chairman Powell Set to Kick Off Jackson Hole Symposium; Stocks Lower for the Week; Rate Cut Expected for September

Dow Industrials Flat-Lined Six Straight Sessions; Wamart Miss on EPS Sending Shockwaves Through Markets

Wednesday, August 20, 2025

No Peace Deal in Ukraine, Thanks to European/American Neocons; BitBonds Emerge as Silly Solution; Target Down, Gold, Silver Up

Tuesday, August 19, 2025

Middle Class and Small Business Being Destroyed by Tariffs, Inflation, Monopolies, Government Corruption, Theft, and Incompetence

Sunday, August 17, 2025

WEEKEND WRAP: Trump-Putin Meeting Produces Progress; SOSMPB as US Silver Pricing Mechanism; Jackson Hole; Dow Theory

Friday, August 15, 2025

With Alaska Trump-Putin Summit Proceeding, Stocks Set Up for Winning Week; Crude Crushed

Thursday, August 14, 2025

PPI Red-Hot for July; Futures Slip Lower; Deere Sees Massive Revenue Shortfall, Tariff Expense; WTI Crude, Gold, Silver Down

Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Trump-Putin Meeting May Serve as Catalyst Toward New Stock Market Highs; Gold, Silver Recovering After Trump Signal

Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Markets Are Now in Complete Disarray; Higher Inflation Sends Stocks Soaring; Precious Metals Shunned; Peace in Ukraine? Yeah, Sure

Sunday, August 10, 2025

WEEKEND WRAP: American Exceptionalism Is Being Measured by Price, Not Value; Gold Bounding; Oil Drops on U.S.-Russia Talk Proposal; the West is Bankrupt

Friday, August 8, 2025

The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End? Trump Tariffs and the America First Policy Institute; Dow Theory Says Bears are Hungry

Thursday, August 7, 2025

Trump Carving Out Items in Tariffs; More Companies Reporting Positive 2Q Results; Dog has Tic (sorry)

Wednesday, August 6, 2025

Big Caps, McDonald's, Disney Show Gains while Tech Stocks Take a Hit on AI Hype Under-Delivering

Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Stocks Shrug Off Jobs, Friday's Losses, Open Week with Massive Gains as Earnings Come into Focus

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