After a shaky start, the Dow - and the other equity averages - erased the morning's losses and finally managed to end the day with just minor losses.
The industrials punched through the 18,000 mark again, but could not sustain the rally, closing just shy of that critical, psychological marker.
This pattern has been in play more often than should be mentioned, prompting belief that the Federal Reserve itself is intervening in stocks, something - in this dystopian reality - that should surprise nobody.
In any case, if the Fed has "the back" of all market plungers, then why not just go ahead and buy your ticket to the good life, via Amazon, or Google, or Apple, perhaps even taking a flyer on the occasional small cap or some oil driller?
If it were only so easy. A wise man once said, "if it was that easy, we'd all be rich." For the monied gangsters doing business on the South end of Manhattan island, perhaps it is so. But, they have other problems, like margin calls, undersized genitalia and assorted mental maladies.
The world of finance is especially rigged to make certain people rich. For the rest of us, it's pretty much a crap-shoot, which is why so many, especially since the economic calamity of 2008-09, have opted to not play any more.
Tomorrow is Friday, and, for much of the expanse of the great United States of America, the weather should be pleasant, if not outright spectacular. Punch in, punch out, grab an adult beverage and had for the patio. Fire up the grill and cook something.
Money doesn't buy happiness. There is surely more to living than counting your shekels. Besides, did you see the gains in silver the past two days?
Something is afoot.
Thursday's Troubled Trip:
S&P 500: 2,115.48, -3.64 (0.17%)
Dow: 17,985.19, -19.86 (0.11%)
NASDAQ: 4,958.62, -16.03 (0.32%)
Crude Oil 50.42 -0.28% Gold 1,271.90 -0.06% EUR/USD 1.1314 -0.04% 10-Yr Bond 1.68 -1.52% Corn 426.00 -1.22% Copper 2.04 0.00% Silver 17.28 +0.10% Natural Gas 2.95 +3.19% Russell 2000 1,181.20 -0.65% VIX 14.64 +3.98% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4462 +0.02% USD/JPY 106.9945 +0.03%
Thursday, June 9, 2016
Wednesday, June 8, 2016
Dow Closes Above 18,000; SPX Within 15 Points Of All-Time High; Silver Rockets Over 17; Cruce Oil At 11-Month High
No commentary required.
S&P 500: 2,119.12, +6.99 (0.33%)
Dow: 18,005.05, +66.77 (0.37%)
NASDAQ: 4,974.64, +12.89 (0.26%)
Crude Oil 51.52 +0.57% Gold 1,266.90 +0.36% EUR/USD 1.1402 +0.02% 10-Yr Bond 1.71 -0.41% Corn 432.50 +1.11% Copper 2.07 +0.34% Silver 17.11 +0.77% Natural Gas 2.85 -0.28% Russell 2000 1,188.95 +0.76% VIX 14.08 +0.21% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4522 +0.03% USD/JPY 106.8950 0.00%
S&P 500: 2,119.12, +6.99 (0.33%)
Dow: 18,005.05, +66.77 (0.37%)
NASDAQ: 4,974.64, +12.89 (0.26%)
Crude Oil 51.52 +0.57% Gold 1,266.90 +0.36% EUR/USD 1.1402 +0.02% 10-Yr Bond 1.71 -0.41% Corn 432.50 +1.11% Copper 2.07 +0.34% Silver 17.11 +0.77% Natural Gas 2.85 -0.28% Russell 2000 1,188.95 +0.76% VIX 14.08 +0.21% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4522 +0.03% USD/JPY 106.8950 0.00%
Tuesday, June 7, 2016
Stocks Rally, Then Fall, In Late-Day Trading
Roughly 2:15 pm EDT, all of the major indices in the US began selling off, apparently for no reason.
Probably more to the point is that the Dow Jones Industrial Average poked above the magical and mysterious 18,000 mark a few times during the session, but could not sustain a rally beyond it.
As has been often suggested and sometimes proven, if the stock market is made up more of psychology than fundamental reality, 18,000 is a price too far to pay for the Dow, even for the most bullish bulls in the china shop that is the NYSE and the NASDAQ.
In any case, stocks closed well off their highs and only a little closer to all-time highs, last seen more than a year ago.
This doesn't appear to be a positive sign for stocks; the truth is that stocks are selling at historically high valuations, a condition that normally precedes a sharp selloff. With the Fed heavily "invested" in stocks, today's sudden reversal of fortune does not bode well, either for the Fed's monetary gimmickry nor for rate increases any time this year.
Those who believe that stocks are the only game in town - and, there's an acronym for that: TINA (There Is No Alternative) - hang on to your hats, gents. The drop may be sudden and deep.
Ouch! That Might Leave A Mark:
S&P 500: 2,112.13, +2.72 (0.13%)
Dow: 17,938.28, +17.95 (0.10%)
NASDAQ: 4,961.75, -6.96 (0.14%)
Crude Oil 50.38 +0.04% Gold 1,247.30 +0.02% EUR/USD 1.1358 +0.04% 10-Yr Bond 1.71 -0.58% Corn 427.00 -0.06% Copper 2.05 +0.17% Silver 16.41 +0.07% Natural Gas 2.86 +1.82% Russell 2000 1,179.97 +0.26% VIX 14.05 +2.93% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4540 +0.02% USD/JPY 107.3025 -0.03%
Probably more to the point is that the Dow Jones Industrial Average poked above the magical and mysterious 18,000 mark a few times during the session, but could not sustain a rally beyond it.
As has been often suggested and sometimes proven, if the stock market is made up more of psychology than fundamental reality, 18,000 is a price too far to pay for the Dow, even for the most bullish bulls in the china shop that is the NYSE and the NASDAQ.
In any case, stocks closed well off their highs and only a little closer to all-time highs, last seen more than a year ago.
This doesn't appear to be a positive sign for stocks; the truth is that stocks are selling at historically high valuations, a condition that normally precedes a sharp selloff. With the Fed heavily "invested" in stocks, today's sudden reversal of fortune does not bode well, either for the Fed's monetary gimmickry nor for rate increases any time this year.
Those who believe that stocks are the only game in town - and, there's an acronym for that: TINA (There Is No Alternative) - hang on to your hats, gents. The drop may be sudden and deep.
Ouch! That Might Leave A Mark:
S&P 500: 2,112.13, +2.72 (0.13%)
Dow: 17,938.28, +17.95 (0.10%)
NASDAQ: 4,961.75, -6.96 (0.14%)
Crude Oil 50.38 +0.04% Gold 1,247.30 +0.02% EUR/USD 1.1358 +0.04% 10-Yr Bond 1.71 -0.58% Corn 427.00 -0.06% Copper 2.05 +0.17% Silver 16.41 +0.07% Natural Gas 2.86 +1.82% Russell 2000 1,179.97 +0.26% VIX 14.05 +2.93% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4540 +0.02% USD/JPY 107.3025 -0.03%
Monday, June 6, 2016
Janet Yellen And The Fed Are Dangerous To Your Well-Being
Apologies for the blaring headline, but this is getting a bit ridiculous. Truthfully, the headline suggested by our ace writer, Fearless Rick, had a definite Donald Trump tone to it, so it was scrapped in favor of the watered-down version.
For seven years - since the great collapse of 2008-09 - we've been listening to the babble coming out of the mouths of various Federal Reserve governors, and none of it was believable nor helpful. The US economy is circling the toilet drain, and various economies around the globe have already been flushed down the sinkhole of fetid monetary policy.
Here is just one quote from Janet Yellen in her address to the World Affairs Council (another bunch of clueless monetarists) that speaks volumes about what she knows and doesn't know:
If Mrs. Yellen would care to elaborate on just what those positive forces could be, it's expected that almost nothing would come out of her mouth, because she's doing what she does best, spout nonsense, in the best tradition of the Maestro himself, the venerable former Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan. In all honesty, just what positive forces are there supporting employment growth after last week's disastrous non-farm payroll report for May, in which the US economy created a paltry 38,000 jobs when 164,000 were expected.
Additionally, Chair Yellen believes inflation is good for the economy, when most people in the real world would like to see some softening of prices and/or an increase in their wages. On the one hand, deflation in consumer prices stretches one's money; on the other, wage hikes usually occur when the economy is growing robustly. Since Americans can't have both at once, it is supposed that we'll get the former, and like it.
Naturally, the bozos on Wall Street took all of it in stride and just bought more overpriced stocks:
S&P 500: 2,109.41, +10.28 (0.49%)
Dow: 17,920.33, +113.27 (0.64%)
NASDAQ: 4,968.71, +26.20 (0.53%)
Crude Oil 49.69 +2.20% Gold 1,247.70 +0.39% EUR/USD 1.1362 -0.02% 10-Yr Bond 1.72 +1.12% Corn 426.75 +2.03% Copper 2.12 +0.31% Silver 16.49 +0.73% Natural Gas 2.81 +1.41% Russell 2000 1,176.62 +1.07% VIX 13.61 +1.04% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4455 -0.14% USD/JPY 107.6200 +1.10%
For seven years - since the great collapse of 2008-09 - we've been listening to the babble coming out of the mouths of various Federal Reserve governors, and none of it was believable nor helpful. The US economy is circling the toilet drain, and various economies around the globe have already been flushed down the sinkhole of fetid monetary policy.
Here is just one quote from Janet Yellen in her address to the World Affairs Council (another bunch of clueless monetarists) that speaks volumes about what she knows and doesn't know:
I see good reason to expect that the positive forces supporting employment growth and higher inflation will continue to outweigh the negative ones.
If Mrs. Yellen would care to elaborate on just what those positive forces could be, it's expected that almost nothing would come out of her mouth, because she's doing what she does best, spout nonsense, in the best tradition of the Maestro himself, the venerable former Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan. In all honesty, just what positive forces are there supporting employment growth after last week's disastrous non-farm payroll report for May, in which the US economy created a paltry 38,000 jobs when 164,000 were expected.
Additionally, Chair Yellen believes inflation is good for the economy, when most people in the real world would like to see some softening of prices and/or an increase in their wages. On the one hand, deflation in consumer prices stretches one's money; on the other, wage hikes usually occur when the economy is growing robustly. Since Americans can't have both at once, it is supposed that we'll get the former, and like it.
Naturally, the bozos on Wall Street took all of it in stride and just bought more overpriced stocks:
S&P 500: 2,109.41, +10.28 (0.49%)
Dow: 17,920.33, +113.27 (0.64%)
NASDAQ: 4,968.71, +26.20 (0.53%)
Crude Oil 49.69 +2.20% Gold 1,247.70 +0.39% EUR/USD 1.1362 -0.02% 10-Yr Bond 1.72 +1.12% Corn 426.75 +2.03% Copper 2.12 +0.31% Silver 16.49 +0.73% Natural Gas 2.81 +1.41% Russell 2000 1,176.62 +1.07% VIX 13.61 +1.04% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4455 -0.14% USD/JPY 107.6200 +1.10%
Labels:
Alan Greenspan,
deflation,
economy,
Federal Reserve,
Janet Yellen
Saturday, June 4, 2016
Weak Jobs Number; Worst In Six Years Rattles Market
At the end of the day, the weakest jobs number since 2010 didn't deter stock traders much, though the damage was more severe earlier in the session, another carbon copy of the previous two, with a deep drop at the open, followed by relentless pumping towards the positive.
While Friday's effort left much to be desired, it has now become all-too-obvious that there is no such thing as a fair and open market in US stocks, especially in the face of negative economic data. The federal government and agents of the Fed are adamant about painting a rosy picture of the economy, even though the metrics - especially manufacturing and non-farm payrolls this week - are using a strikingly different palette.
The 38,000 new jobs created in May, as reported by the BLS, was miles below the consensus estimate of 164,000 and gives the Fed much more thinking material as concerns a rate hike, which now appears to be off the table for June, at the very least.
What the number suggests is that despite all the howls from the president, his advisors and others on TV, the economy is in a precarious state, not one in which overheating is even a remote possibility. This would be no time to raise interest rates.
While stocks held their own during a tumultuous week, Friday saw gold and silver rally back, perhaps an indication that all is really not well in the kingdom of Obama.
On The Week:
Dow: -66.16, (-0.37%)
S&P 500: +0.07 (0.00)
NASDAQ: +9.01 (+0.18)
For the Day:
S&P 500: 2,099.13, -6.13 (0.29%)
Dow: 17,807.06, -31.50 (0.18%)
NASDAQ: 4,942.52, -28.85 (0.58%)
Crude Oil 48.90 -0.55% Gold 1,246.50 +2.80% EUR/USD 1.1366 0.00% 10-Yr Bond 1.70 -5.91% Corn 418.25 +0.72% Copper 2.12 +2.42% Silver 16.44 +2.59% Natural Gas 2.76 -0.54% Russell 2000 1,164.14 -0.55% VIX 13.47 -1.17% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4515 0.00% USD/JPY 106.5450 0.00%
While Friday's effort left much to be desired, it has now become all-too-obvious that there is no such thing as a fair and open market in US stocks, especially in the face of negative economic data. The federal government and agents of the Fed are adamant about painting a rosy picture of the economy, even though the metrics - especially manufacturing and non-farm payrolls this week - are using a strikingly different palette.
The 38,000 new jobs created in May, as reported by the BLS, was miles below the consensus estimate of 164,000 and gives the Fed much more thinking material as concerns a rate hike, which now appears to be off the table for June, at the very least.
What the number suggests is that despite all the howls from the president, his advisors and others on TV, the economy is in a precarious state, not one in which overheating is even a remote possibility. This would be no time to raise interest rates.
While stocks held their own during a tumultuous week, Friday saw gold and silver rally back, perhaps an indication that all is really not well in the kingdom of Obama.
On The Week:
Dow: -66.16, (-0.37%)
S&P 500: +0.07 (0.00)
NASDAQ: +9.01 (+0.18)
For the Day:
S&P 500: 2,099.13, -6.13 (0.29%)
Dow: 17,807.06, -31.50 (0.18%)
NASDAQ: 4,942.52, -28.85 (0.58%)
Crude Oil 48.90 -0.55% Gold 1,246.50 +2.80% EUR/USD 1.1366 0.00% 10-Yr Bond 1.70 -5.91% Corn 418.25 +0.72% Copper 2.12 +2.42% Silver 16.44 +2.59% Natural Gas 2.76 -0.54% Russell 2000 1,164.14 -0.55% VIX 13.47 -1.17% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4515 0.00% USD/JPY 106.5450 0.00%
Labels:
BLS,
employment,
Fed,
jobs,
non-farm payroll,
Obama,
President Obama
Thursday, June 2, 2016
Wealth Building Suggestions In The Age Of Idiocy
Here are some pretty simple ideas for building and preserving wealth. When it comes to debt, not all is bad, though excessive debt is a non-starter for most people. Manage debt wisely. Any business will tell you they needed a loan or an equity partner to make money; people aren't very different.
Here are a few suggestions:
1. Buy silver (dollar cost average; buy a certain amount, be it $20 or $2000, per month, regardless of price.
2. Hide silver (self-explanatory) and don't touch it. This is your secret stash, outside the govenment's hands.
3. Find a business you can operate from home, even if it's a little more than just a hobby. Deduct all allowable expenses. I've been telling people to do this for years and the number who have listened and done it approaches ZERO. The tax code makes it easy to deduct substantial portions of your expenses.
4. Read "The Richest Man In Babylon." Follow the book's advice. Here's's a PDF online.
5. Never buy prepared foods at a grocery. Total junk, and a huge ripoff. Cook meals at home.
6. Have a garden. Even a 6x6 garden can produce a significant amount of produce.
7. Never stop learning. Knowledge is power.
8. Spend money like you don't have much. Always ask for a discount or deal.
9. Never, ever hire an investment advisor. If you think you don't know enough about investing, see #7 and educate yourself. The fact that you are reading this post makes you a candidate for being your own investment advisor and money manager.
10. Be a Boy Scout. Their motto is "Be Prepared."
11. Never panic, in either buying or selling situations. Trust your gut.
There are many more...
As far as the markets are concerned, Thursday was a repeat performance (by agents of central bankers) of Wednesday, with early losses rapidly erased and the major averages making a diagonal line from lower left to upper right on the charts.
Truly disturbing behavior from some exceptionally disturbed people.
Viola!
S&P 500: 2,105.26, +5.93 (0.28%)
Dow: 17,838.56, +48.89 (0.27%)
NASDAQ: 4,971.36, +19.11 (0.39%)
Crude Oil 49.15 -0.04% Gold 1,213.10 +0.04% EUR/USD 1.1149 -0.04% 10-Yr Bond 1.81 -1.90% Corn 414.75 -0.12% Copper 2.07 +0.17% Silver 16.00 -0.16% Natural Gas 2.78 0.00% Russell 2000 1,170.58 +0.65% VIX 13.63 -4.01% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4405 -0.10% USD/JPY 108.9500 +0.08%
Here are a few suggestions:
1. Buy silver (dollar cost average; buy a certain amount, be it $20 or $2000, per month, regardless of price.
2. Hide silver (self-explanatory) and don't touch it. This is your secret stash, outside the govenment's hands.
3. Find a business you can operate from home, even if it's a little more than just a hobby. Deduct all allowable expenses. I've been telling people to do this for years and the number who have listened and done it approaches ZERO. The tax code makes it easy to deduct substantial portions of your expenses.
4. Read "The Richest Man In Babylon." Follow the book's advice. Here's's a PDF online.
5. Never buy prepared foods at a grocery. Total junk, and a huge ripoff. Cook meals at home.
6. Have a garden. Even a 6x6 garden can produce a significant amount of produce.
7. Never stop learning. Knowledge is power.
8. Spend money like you don't have much. Always ask for a discount or deal.
9. Never, ever hire an investment advisor. If you think you don't know enough about investing, see #7 and educate yourself. The fact that you are reading this post makes you a candidate for being your own investment advisor and money manager.
10. Be a Boy Scout. Their motto is "Be Prepared."
11. Never panic, in either buying or selling situations. Trust your gut.
There are many more...
As far as the markets are concerned, Thursday was a repeat performance (by agents of central bankers) of Wednesday, with early losses rapidly erased and the major averages making a diagonal line from lower left to upper right on the charts.
Truly disturbing behavior from some exceptionally disturbed people.
Viola!
S&P 500: 2,105.26, +5.93 (0.28%)
Dow: 17,838.56, +48.89 (0.27%)
NASDAQ: 4,971.36, +19.11 (0.39%)
Crude Oil 49.15 -0.04% Gold 1,213.10 +0.04% EUR/USD 1.1149 -0.04% 10-Yr Bond 1.81 -1.90% Corn 414.75 -0.12% Copper 2.07 +0.17% Silver 16.00 -0.16% Natural Gas 2.78 0.00% Russell 2000 1,170.58 +0.65% VIX 13.63 -4.01% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4405 -0.10% USD/JPY 108.9500 +0.08%
Labels:
Boy Scouts,
discounts,
food,
gardening,
home business,
Money,
silver,
taxes,
wealth
Wednesday, June 1, 2016
Suspicious Behavior In Stocks Leads To Belief That Fed Is Buying
After dismal data out of Japan and some troubling manufacturing numbers in the US, stocks opened sharply lower on Wednesday, reversing the short-covering faux rally into Tuesday's close.
But, the trauma was short-lived, ending abruptly, absolutely minutes after the open. Some people surely got caught short at the wrong moment, thinking, wrongly, that the era of central bank noise and confusion was about to meet a fitting end. Stocks continued an inexorable ascent throughout the day, based on nothing other than front-running computer bots and anti-competitive algos run by criminal banks.
Of course, no such thing would happen. The signs of a collapsing global economy have been with us for the past seven or eight years now, but somehow, stocks continue to pace along, and lately, they just fluctuate in a narrow zone.
This trading conundrum - in which outflows from equities has been ongoing for seventeen weeks - has to be the work of the central bank, or banks, acting in concert to keep asset prices from collapsing to where they might belong, about 40-=0% lower than where they currently reside.
Since the Bank of Japan has been spotted owning a hefty percentage of the biggest companies on the Nikkei, it shouldn't surprise anybody that the Federal Reserve is working behind the scenes to keep US equities floating on vapors.
It's a disgusting, completely inappropriate condition. The Fed is engaged in the worst form of market manipulation, in secret, buying selectively to keep prices from collapsing, in a most offensive manner.
While Money Daily considers this kind of activity to be nothing short of criminal behavior at best and immoral destruction of the whole economy at worst, others are entitled to their opinions, such as the corrupt Keyenesians and insiders on Capitol Hill who profit handsomely from Fed interventions.
Their opinions are typically based on nothing other than self-interest, greed and keeping their jobs. They should all be out on the street. Hope springs eternal.
Maybe by November.
Oh, Happy Day!
S&P 500: 2,099.33, +2.37 (0.11%)
Dow: 17,789.67, +2.47 (0.01%)
NASDAQ: 4,952.25, +4.20 (0.08%)
Crude Oil 48.91 -0.39% Gold 1,215.20 -0.19% EUR/USD 1.1188 +0.02% 10-Yr Bond 1.85 +0.65% Corn 412.00 +1.79% Copper 2.07 -1.07% Silver 15.98 -0.12% Natural Gas 2.74 +0.84% Russell 2000 1,163.04 +0.71% VIX 14.20 +0.07% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4411 -0.01% USD/JPY 109.4650 -0.03%
But, the trauma was short-lived, ending abruptly, absolutely minutes after the open. Some people surely got caught short at the wrong moment, thinking, wrongly, that the era of central bank noise and confusion was about to meet a fitting end. Stocks continued an inexorable ascent throughout the day, based on nothing other than front-running computer bots and anti-competitive algos run by criminal banks.
Of course, no such thing would happen. The signs of a collapsing global economy have been with us for the past seven or eight years now, but somehow, stocks continue to pace along, and lately, they just fluctuate in a narrow zone.
This trading conundrum - in which outflows from equities has been ongoing for seventeen weeks - has to be the work of the central bank, or banks, acting in concert to keep asset prices from collapsing to where they might belong, about 40-=0% lower than where they currently reside.
Since the Bank of Japan has been spotted owning a hefty percentage of the biggest companies on the Nikkei, it shouldn't surprise anybody that the Federal Reserve is working behind the scenes to keep US equities floating on vapors.
It's a disgusting, completely inappropriate condition. The Fed is engaged in the worst form of market manipulation, in secret, buying selectively to keep prices from collapsing, in a most offensive manner.
While Money Daily considers this kind of activity to be nothing short of criminal behavior at best and immoral destruction of the whole economy at worst, others are entitled to their opinions, such as the corrupt Keyenesians and insiders on Capitol Hill who profit handsomely from Fed interventions.
Their opinions are typically based on nothing other than self-interest, greed and keeping their jobs. They should all be out on the street. Hope springs eternal.
Maybe by November.
Oh, Happy Day!
S&P 500: 2,099.33, +2.37 (0.11%)
Dow: 17,789.67, +2.47 (0.01%)
NASDAQ: 4,952.25, +4.20 (0.08%)
Crude Oil 48.91 -0.39% Gold 1,215.20 -0.19% EUR/USD 1.1188 +0.02% 10-Yr Bond 1.85 +0.65% Corn 412.00 +1.79% Copper 2.07 -1.07% Silver 15.98 -0.12% Natural Gas 2.74 +0.84% Russell 2000 1,163.04 +0.71% VIX 14.20 +0.07% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4411 -0.01% USD/JPY 109.4650 -0.03%
Labels:
central banks,
Fed,
Federal Reserve,
fraud,
manipulation
Tuesday, May 31, 2016
A Beginning And An End: Stocks And Oil Hit The Skids
Tuesday marked a beginning and an end in more ways than just the day and date.
On the one hand, today was the start of the trading week, shortened by Monday's Memorial Day holiday. On the other, it was May 31, the final trading day of the month, a date normally associated with the buying of stocks as "window dressing," wherein funds pad their holdings with the most favored stock offerings.
As days go, this one was a downer for stocks, with the major averages taking a deep dip before a late-session rally brought the S&P and NASDAQ respectively closer to breakeven and into positive territory. The Dow suffered the worst, losing nearly 150 points before ripping off a significant portion of the losses in the closing hour, ending with a drop close to 1/2 percent.
Thus, the day's trading may have marked the start of another downtrend for stocks, following the massive gains of the prior week. Notable was trading in WTI crude oil futures, which tested the $50 mark before falling off to close more than a dollar lower. Oil has been on a tear since bottoming out at $26 per barrel in mid-February.
An astonishing feat of market movement, the price of crude has nearly doubled in just over three months, but the phony pumping may have come to a quick end. Time will tell if $50 turns out to be a price too high to bear and whether stocks will begin a hasty retreat, having tested the top of the short-term range.
Investing and market-watching alike have become spectator sports of sorts for many, depending upon the level and length of financial repression one can endure, both of which have been in play for far too long.
S&P 500: 2,096.96, -2.10 (0.10%)
Dow: 17,787.20, -86.02 (0.48%)
NASDAQ: 4,948.05, +14.55 (0.29%)
Crude Oil 48.83 -1.01% Gold 1,217.50 +0.07% EUR/USD 1.1133 +0.03% 10-Yr Bond 1.83 -0.92% Corn 406.50 -1.51% Copper 2.08 -1.40% Silver 16.00 -1.65% Natural Gas 2.71 +1.61% Russell 2000 1,154.79 +0.38% VIX 14.19 +8.16% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4486 +0.04% USD/JPY 110.7115 -0.03%
On the one hand, today was the start of the trading week, shortened by Monday's Memorial Day holiday. On the other, it was May 31, the final trading day of the month, a date normally associated with the buying of stocks as "window dressing," wherein funds pad their holdings with the most favored stock offerings.
As days go, this one was a downer for stocks, with the major averages taking a deep dip before a late-session rally brought the S&P and NASDAQ respectively closer to breakeven and into positive territory. The Dow suffered the worst, losing nearly 150 points before ripping off a significant portion of the losses in the closing hour, ending with a drop close to 1/2 percent.
Thus, the day's trading may have marked the start of another downtrend for stocks, following the massive gains of the prior week. Notable was trading in WTI crude oil futures, which tested the $50 mark before falling off to close more than a dollar lower. Oil has been on a tear since bottoming out at $26 per barrel in mid-February.
An astonishing feat of market movement, the price of crude has nearly doubled in just over three months, but the phony pumping may have come to a quick end. Time will tell if $50 turns out to be a price too high to bear and whether stocks will begin a hasty retreat, having tested the top of the short-term range.
Investing and market-watching alike have become spectator sports of sorts for many, depending upon the level and length of financial repression one can endure, both of which have been in play for far too long.
S&P 500: 2,096.96, -2.10 (0.10%)
Dow: 17,787.20, -86.02 (0.48%)
NASDAQ: 4,948.05, +14.55 (0.29%)
Crude Oil 48.83 -1.01% Gold 1,217.50 +0.07% EUR/USD 1.1133 +0.03% 10-Yr Bond 1.83 -0.92% Corn 406.50 -1.51% Copper 2.08 -1.40% Silver 16.00 -1.65% Natural Gas 2.71 +1.61% Russell 2000 1,154.79 +0.38% VIX 14.19 +8.16% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4486 +0.04% USD/JPY 110.7115 -0.03%
Friday, May 27, 2016
The Federal Reserve Faces Insolvency As It Attempts Impossibile Rate Hikes
As has been posited here on Money Daily and elsewhere, the Federal Reserve is facing a severe solvency crisis, due primarily to the bank bailouts from 2008-09.
In a headline story on - of all places - Yahoo! Finance, the Fed faces a real, dangerous situation if and when they try to normalize rates - something many economists say is nearly impossible to do without destroying the entire monetary system of the United States, and, ostensibly, the world.
The article fleshes out how US taxpayers could be on the hook for the Fed's bad debts, stemming from overpayment on mortgage and treasury note, bills and bonds in years past, specifically during the various QE sessions from 2009-2014.
It's long been held that the Fed was buying bad mortgage notes and bonds at par, when the true value of these slips of counterfeit are more than 30-70% lower. This effectively puts the Fed itself in a condition known to many in the world of finance as either insolvent or bankrupt.
Insolvent is the operative term here, since there is no functioning body by which the Fed can go to for a reorganization or liquidation, as do businesses or individuals in bankruptcy.
The solution would be to dissolve the Federal Reserve, extinguish all debts (which is anything numerated in US dollars), and have the US government - as is required by the constitution - issue a new currency, with gold and/or silver as backing, as opposed to the "full faith and credit" backing to which Americans have become accustomed.
This, as the presidential race looks to be one which a certain maverick billionaire, Donald J. Trump, has a solid chance of winning, could be the beginning of the end to the financial repression initiated by the Fed and its member banks and a start toward a return to honest money.
Capping off the week was a speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, characterized by the media as being "hawkish" for a rate hike in June or July.
Apparently, investors either disagreed or threw caution to the wind in the face of the three-day Memorial Day weekend, boosting stocks late in the session, ending what was a banner week for US stocks, especially the high-leverage, high-flying NASDAQ.
On the week:
Dow: +372.28 (+2.13%)
S&P 500: +46.74 (+2.28%)
NASDAQ: +163.95 (+3.44%)
For the day:
S&P 500: 2,099.06, +8.96 (0.43%)
Dow: 17,873.22, +44.93 (0.25%)
NASDAQ: 4,933.50, +31.74 (0.65%)
Crude Oil 49.42 -0.12% Gold 1,213.20 -0.78% EUR/USD 1.1114 -0.71% 10-Yr Bond 1.85 +1.54% Corn 412.25 +0.98% Copper 2.11 +0.38% Silver 16.21 -0.81% Natural Gas 2.16 +0.65% Russell 2000 1,150.45 +0.94% VIX 13.08 -2.61% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4613 -0.37% USD/JPY 110.3725 +0.56%
In a headline story on - of all places - Yahoo! Finance, the Fed faces a real, dangerous situation if and when they try to normalize rates - something many economists say is nearly impossible to do without destroying the entire monetary system of the United States, and, ostensibly, the world.
The article fleshes out how US taxpayers could be on the hook for the Fed's bad debts, stemming from overpayment on mortgage and treasury note, bills and bonds in years past, specifically during the various QE sessions from 2009-2014.
It's long been held that the Fed was buying bad mortgage notes and bonds at par, when the true value of these slips of counterfeit are more than 30-70% lower. This effectively puts the Fed itself in a condition known to many in the world of finance as either insolvent or bankrupt.
Insolvent is the operative term here, since there is no functioning body by which the Fed can go to for a reorganization or liquidation, as do businesses or individuals in bankruptcy.
The solution would be to dissolve the Federal Reserve, extinguish all debts (which is anything numerated in US dollars), and have the US government - as is required by the constitution - issue a new currency, with gold and/or silver as backing, as opposed to the "full faith and credit" backing to which Americans have become accustomed.
This, as the presidential race looks to be one which a certain maverick billionaire, Donald J. Trump, has a solid chance of winning, could be the beginning of the end to the financial repression initiated by the Fed and its member banks and a start toward a return to honest money.
Capping off the week was a speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, characterized by the media as being "hawkish" for a rate hike in June or July.
Apparently, investors either disagreed or threw caution to the wind in the face of the three-day Memorial Day weekend, boosting stocks late in the session, ending what was a banner week for US stocks, especially the high-leverage, high-flying NASDAQ.
On the week:
Dow: +372.28 (+2.13%)
S&P 500: +46.74 (+2.28%)
NASDAQ: +163.95 (+3.44%)
For the day:
S&P 500: 2,099.06, +8.96 (0.43%)
Dow: 17,873.22, +44.93 (0.25%)
NASDAQ: 4,933.50, +31.74 (0.65%)
Crude Oil 49.42 -0.12% Gold 1,213.20 -0.78% EUR/USD 1.1114 -0.71% 10-Yr Bond 1.85 +1.54% Corn 412.25 +0.98% Copper 2.11 +0.38% Silver 16.21 -0.81% Natural Gas 2.16 +0.65% Russell 2000 1,150.45 +0.94% VIX 13.08 -2.61% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4613 -0.37% USD/JPY 110.3725 +0.56%
Labels:
Fed,
Federal Reserve,
gold,
honest money,
insolvency,
Janet Yellen,
Nasdaq,
silver
Thursday, May 26, 2016
Flat Is Good Says Yahoo! Finance, Which Should Know
"Why a flat day is good for the markets" screams the headline on Yahoo! Finance at the close of trading on Thursday.
Of course closing flat is good. Up is good, down is good, flat is good. Darn, the markets are even good when they're closed.
It's all about the narrative, with the financial media desperately trying to keep convincing an ever-shrinking number of "home-gamers" (trtaders with their own individual accounts), 401k holders, and other interested parties that the economy - and the stock market in particular - have never been better, or at least to convince themselves that they are convincing somebody.
It's a complete crock.
The global economy is, and has been, on its knees since the fall of 2008. Everything after that is a facade, made possible by trillions of dollars spent by the Federal Reserve and matching amounts of yen, yuan, euros and rupees by corresponding central banks, stock buybacks, income sheet fraud, mark-to-fantasy accounting, high valuations and the lack of any real price discovery mechanism.
It's a sham.
Central bankers are idiots who have walled themselves off from the general population and can't seem to find their way out of the boxed-in condition they've created for themselves.
So, we have Trump and Sanders (forget Clinton, she's a has-been, and a poor candidate who cannot win in a general election) vying to be the most powerful man in the world (don't tell Mario Draghi or Janet Yellen, though), an economy that can't produce nominal growth of more then two percent, stupid wars, uncontrollable mass migration, and a host of other problems.
But, a flat day is all good, all the time. Glad Yahoo Got the memo. They've been flat (or down) for a long time. Love ya some Marissa Mayer (Yahoo CEO). She's cute. She's smart. She's blonde. She's... no, don't go there.
She's an idiot, a poser, a fraud. Just take a look at Yahoo's performance since she became CEO. Courtiers to the company are looking at a take-under sometime late this year or early next. The $35-ish share price is a bit rich for their tastes. Something more like $18-24 may be more like it.
Flat Is In... Again!
S&P 500: 2,090.10, -0.44 (0.02%)
Dow: 17,828.29, -23.22 (0.13%)
NASDAQ: 4,901.77, +6.88 (0.14%)
Crude Oil 49.33 -0.46% Gold 1,220.00 -0.31% EUR/USD 1.1193 +0.31% 10-Yr Bond 1.82 -2.51% Corn 407.75 +0.74% Copper 2.10 -0.05% Silver 16.34 +0.52% Natural Gas 2.15 -1.51% Russell 2000 1,140.39 -0.06% VIX 13.67 -1.65% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4665 -0.25% USD/JPY 109.7650 -0.39%
Labels:
401k,
Bernie Sanders,
Donald Trump,
home-gamers,
Janet Yellen
Wednesday, May 25, 2016
Smooth Sailing As Stocks Approach Top Of Range
It's such a sham, there's little to say other than 18,000 on the Dow approaches, a level the genii marketeers have yet been able to surpass.
The likelihood is that any rally over 18,000 will be sold off within days, if not minutes.
Tomorrow's headline will scream about the Fed raising rates, thus scaring investors. Friday, Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, speaks at Harvard, which should provide what the talking heads are calling "clarity."
Harumph.
Happy Motoring!
S&P 500: 2,090.54, +14.48 (0.70%)
Dow: 17,851.51, +145.46 (0.82%)
NASDAQ: 4,894.89, +33.84 (0.70%)
Crude Oil 49.74 +2.30% Gold 1,224.20 +0.03% EUR/USD 1.1154 -0.03% 10-Yr Bond 1.87 +0.59% Corn 404.00 +1.64% Copper 2.10 +0.02% Silver 16.33 +0.42% Natural Gas 2.16 +0.75% Russell 2000 1,141.02 +0.50% VIX 13.90 -3.61% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4701 -0.01% USD/JPY 110.2160 +0.01%
The likelihood is that any rally over 18,000 will be sold off within days, if not minutes.
Tomorrow's headline will scream about the Fed raising rates, thus scaring investors. Friday, Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, speaks at Harvard, which should provide what the talking heads are calling "clarity."
Harumph.
Happy Motoring!
S&P 500: 2,090.54, +14.48 (0.70%)
Dow: 17,851.51, +145.46 (0.82%)
NASDAQ: 4,894.89, +33.84 (0.70%)
Crude Oil 49.74 +2.30% Gold 1,224.20 +0.03% EUR/USD 1.1154 -0.03% 10-Yr Bond 1.87 +0.59% Corn 404.00 +1.64% Copper 2.10 +0.02% Silver 16.33 +0.42% Natural Gas 2.16 +0.75% Russell 2000 1,141.02 +0.50% VIX 13.90 -3.61% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4701 -0.01% USD/JPY 110.2160 +0.01%
Tuesday, May 24, 2016
Stocks Rock, Regain 17,500+ Range
Why not?
Presented without commentary.
S&P 500: 2,076.06, +28.02 (1.37%)
Dow: 17,706.05, +213.12 (1.22%)
NASDAQ: 4,861.06, +95.27 (2.00%)
Crude Oil 49.24 +1.28% Gold 1,227.50 -0.14% EUR/USD 1.1142 +0.01% 10-Yr Bond 1.86 +1.14% Corn 398.50 +0.19% Copper 2.07 +0.05% Silver 16.24 -0.09% Natural Gas 2.14 -0.19% Russell 2000 1,135.31 +2.15% VIX 14.42 -8.85% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4622 -0.02% USD/JPY 110.0165 +0.04%
Presented without commentary.
S&P 500: 2,076.06, +28.02 (1.37%)
Dow: 17,706.05, +213.12 (1.22%)
NASDAQ: 4,861.06, +95.27 (2.00%)
Crude Oil 49.24 +1.28% Gold 1,227.50 -0.14% EUR/USD 1.1142 +0.01% 10-Yr Bond 1.86 +1.14% Corn 398.50 +0.19% Copper 2.07 +0.05% Silver 16.24 -0.09% Natural Gas 2.14 -0.19% Russell 2000 1,135.31 +2.15% VIX 14.42 -8.85% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4622 -0.02% USD/JPY 110.0165 +0.04%
Monday, May 23, 2016
Stocks Finish Red As Global Economic Data Exhibits Slowdown
News out of Japan, Europe and the US put a negative spin on markets to open the week.
After the Dow closed exactly at 17,500 on Friday, there was fear that a further decline below the level - which had held for more than two months (March 17 was the last time the Dow closed under 17,500) - might trigger a more precipitous decline.
However, with bad news all around, traders figured that the Fed would have enough sense to pause on a rate hike at their June meeting.
Japan experienced deep declines in both imports and exports to major trading partners such as the USA and China. It was the seventh consecutive monthly decline in exports from Japan.
Europe's Manufacturing PMI was below estimates; the US had similar results, with the lowest Markit Manufacturing PMI (50.5) since the financial crisis in 2009.
Stock traders put on a stern face, keeping the major averages in the green most of the day, but stocks slumped in he final hour of trading, with all three majors losing ground.
Now, it appears that not only is the Federal reserve intent on raising rates sooner rather than later, but it is also becoming crystal clear that the general global economy is ailing as well and may be approaching recessionary levels.
This is not exactly how the masters of the universe wanted to start the week, though they have nobody except themselves to blame for whatever erosion of the global economy and their precious stock certificates occurs in coming months.
Stormy Monday:
S&P 500: 2,048.04, -4.28 (0.21%)
Dow: 17,492.93, -8.01 (0.05%)
NASDAQ: 4,765.78, -3.78 (0.08%)
Crude Oil 48.12 -0.60% Gold 1,249.50 -0.27% EUR/USD 1.1222 +0.03% 10-Yr Bond 1.84 -0.59% Corn 397.75 +0.82% Copper 2.06 +0.02% Silver 16.41 -0.77% Natural Gas 2.06 +0.05% Russell 2000 1,111.37 -0.08% VIX 15.82 +4.08% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4484 -0.16% USD/JPY 109.2430 -0.81%
After the Dow closed exactly at 17,500 on Friday, there was fear that a further decline below the level - which had held for more than two months (March 17 was the last time the Dow closed under 17,500) - might trigger a more precipitous decline.
However, with bad news all around, traders figured that the Fed would have enough sense to pause on a rate hike at their June meeting.
Japan experienced deep declines in both imports and exports to major trading partners such as the USA and China. It was the seventh consecutive monthly decline in exports from Japan.
Europe's Manufacturing PMI was below estimates; the US had similar results, with the lowest Markit Manufacturing PMI (50.5) since the financial crisis in 2009.
Stock traders put on a stern face, keeping the major averages in the green most of the day, but stocks slumped in he final hour of trading, with all three majors losing ground.
Now, it appears that not only is the Federal reserve intent on raising rates sooner rather than later, but it is also becoming crystal clear that the general global economy is ailing as well and may be approaching recessionary levels.
This is not exactly how the masters of the universe wanted to start the week, though they have nobody except themselves to blame for whatever erosion of the global economy and their precious stock certificates occurs in coming months.
Stormy Monday:
S&P 500: 2,048.04, -4.28 (0.21%)
Dow: 17,492.93, -8.01 (0.05%)
NASDAQ: 4,765.78, -3.78 (0.08%)
Crude Oil 48.12 -0.60% Gold 1,249.50 -0.27% EUR/USD 1.1222 +0.03% 10-Yr Bond 1.84 -0.59% Corn 397.75 +0.82% Copper 2.06 +0.02% Silver 16.41 -0.77% Natural Gas 2.06 +0.05% Russell 2000 1,111.37 -0.08% VIX 15.82 +4.08% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4484 -0.16% USD/JPY 109.2430 -0.81%
Friday, May 20, 2016
THE FRAUD IS COMPLETE: Dow Closes Exactly At 17,500
Wowsers! Those agents of the Federal Reserve really know how to put markets in a fix of a fix of a fix.
Best to ignore them, if one knows what's good for oneself, because they are pernicious, pecuniary, petty imbeciles who share a false belief that they can control all markets.
And there's the rub. They do. They can. Governments allow them, or, rather, governments are bought and sold by them.
Current economics more resembles a Kafka-esque dystopian parallel universe or perhaps the totalitarian nightmare of George Orwell's 1984 (you'll have to look that one up for yourself, grasshopper), than orderly markets relying on simple supply and demand dictates.
It is one thing to complain. Another would be to change.
More to follow...
On the day:
S&P 500: 2,052.32, +12.28 (0.60%)
Dow: 17,500.94, +65.54 (0.38%)
NASDAQ: 4,769.56, +57.03 (1.21%)
For the Week:
Dow: -34.38 (-0.20%)
S&P 500: +5.71 (0.28%)
NASDAQ: +51.88 (1.10%)
Shocking!
Crude Oil 48.26 -0.84% Gold 1,252.40 -0.19% EUR/USD 1.1221 -0.01% 10-Yr Bond 1.8490 +0.22% Corn 393.50 +0.90% Copper 2.06 -0.29% Silver 16.53 +0.25% Natural Gas 2.06 +0.93% Russell 2000 1,112.28 +1.60% VIX 15.20 -6.92% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4509 +0.06% USD/JPY 110.14 0.00%
Best to ignore them, if one knows what's good for oneself, because they are pernicious, pecuniary, petty imbeciles who share a false belief that they can control all markets.
And there's the rub. They do. They can. Governments allow them, or, rather, governments are bought and sold by them.
Current economics more resembles a Kafka-esque dystopian parallel universe or perhaps the totalitarian nightmare of George Orwell's 1984 (you'll have to look that one up for yourself, grasshopper), than orderly markets relying on simple supply and demand dictates.
It is one thing to complain. Another would be to change.
More to follow...
On the day:
S&P 500: 2,052.32, +12.28 (0.60%)
Dow: 17,500.94, +65.54 (0.38%)
NASDAQ: 4,769.56, +57.03 (1.21%)
For the Week:
Dow: -34.38 (-0.20%)
S&P 500: +5.71 (0.28%)
NASDAQ: +51.88 (1.10%)
Shocking!
Crude Oil 48.26 -0.84% Gold 1,252.40 -0.19% EUR/USD 1.1221 -0.01% 10-Yr Bond 1.8490 +0.22% Corn 393.50 +0.90% Copper 2.06 -0.29% Silver 16.53 +0.25% Natural Gas 2.06 +0.93% Russell 2000 1,112.28 +1.60% VIX 15.20 -6.92% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4509 +0.06% USD/JPY 110.14 0.00%
Thursday, May 19, 2016
End The Fed; Hawkish Tone Sends Dow Below Key Level; Gold, Silver Mercilessly Hammered
While it may seem nothing but a triviality, Money Daily has been following the most recent renge on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) as it bounced its way between 17,500 and 18,000 since mid-March.
Today, the most widely-watched equity index in the world crossed below the lower end of that range, exclusively due to hawkish jawboning from various Federal Reserve operatives, who have spent the better part of the last seven years engaged in radical interest rate and money-creation policies, putting the entire global finacial system at risk.
To the uninformed masses - those 90-plus percent of the adult population who doesn't care or isn't bright enough to comprehend the ramifications of a global central banking system - life goes on. A debt-ridden, over-taxed population in the developed world plays giddily along as private banking interests push them one way or another. A few have escaped to off-the-grid lifestyles, some have prospered in the fiat money world of counterfeit currencies, but most are forced to take what is given, or rather, keep the small scraps the banks and governments leave on the floor after their orgy of inflation, deflation, false promises, fake data points and market mayhem and manipulation.
Thanks to the Fed and their fellow central bankers in Japan, Europe, and now China, the global population is left without price discovery mechanisms which make $30,000 cars with seven-year payment plans sound "affordable", homes which have skyrocketed in value due to artificially-low mortgage rates, fuel prices that are anything but transparent and/or stable and a general climate that continues to be counter to general principles of economy and thrift.
The Fed (and their central banker brethren) is pernicious, malevolent, deceitful, dishonest, greedy and carnivorous. They seek nothing but complete dominance without competition, a monopoly on the medium of exchange. Governments are more than willing to accept their bribery and thievery in order to retain feigned positions of power, selling out their constituents with nary a care toward the ultimate consequences of their actions.
Mandated to enact policies that promote full employment and stable prices, the Fed openly does neither, or, at best, adheres to their promises only as occasion allows, in fact promoting an inflation rate of two percent per year, which is anything but stable for prices.
So intent is the Fed on controlling every last aspect of financial activity, that they have undermined the best open markets of the world, in bonds, stocks, commodities and anything else they can get their greedy hands upon.
Markets no longer move on supply and demand or fundamental forces, but are solely and completely tethered to proclamations and idle talk of agents of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), the People's Bank of China (PBOC), and the European Central Bank (ECB).
It's all rigged, all the time and readers are urged to do their own research into financial matters. Unless and until the fraud of banks and the agents of the Fed and other central banks are brought entirely to light there will be no financial freedom, only crony capitalism, fascist rhetoric and insane, unbalanced economic polices.
May the Farce Be With You:
S&P 500: 2,040.04, -7.59 (0.37%)
Dow: 17,435.40, -91.22 (0.52%)
NASDAQ: 4,712.53, -26.59 (0.56%)
Crude Oil 48.68 -0.20% Gold 1,255.70 -1.47% EUR/USD 1.1203 -0.12% 10-Yr Bond 1.85 -1.86% Corn 390.00 -2.38% Copper 2.07 -0.63% Silver 16.51 -3.63% Natural Gas 2.04 +1.75% Russell 2000 1,094.78 -0.74% VIX 16.33 +2.38% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4609 +0.09% USD/JPY 109.9550 -0.20%
Today, the most widely-watched equity index in the world crossed below the lower end of that range, exclusively due to hawkish jawboning from various Federal Reserve operatives, who have spent the better part of the last seven years engaged in radical interest rate and money-creation policies, putting the entire global finacial system at risk.
To the uninformed masses - those 90-plus percent of the adult population who doesn't care or isn't bright enough to comprehend the ramifications of a global central banking system - life goes on. A debt-ridden, over-taxed population in the developed world plays giddily along as private banking interests push them one way or another. A few have escaped to off-the-grid lifestyles, some have prospered in the fiat money world of counterfeit currencies, but most are forced to take what is given, or rather, keep the small scraps the banks and governments leave on the floor after their orgy of inflation, deflation, false promises, fake data points and market mayhem and manipulation.
Thanks to the Fed and their fellow central bankers in Japan, Europe, and now China, the global population is left without price discovery mechanisms which make $30,000 cars with seven-year payment plans sound "affordable", homes which have skyrocketed in value due to artificially-low mortgage rates, fuel prices that are anything but transparent and/or stable and a general climate that continues to be counter to general principles of economy and thrift.
The Fed (and their central banker brethren) is pernicious, malevolent, deceitful, dishonest, greedy and carnivorous. They seek nothing but complete dominance without competition, a monopoly on the medium of exchange. Governments are more than willing to accept their bribery and thievery in order to retain feigned positions of power, selling out their constituents with nary a care toward the ultimate consequences of their actions.
Mandated to enact policies that promote full employment and stable prices, the Fed openly does neither, or, at best, adheres to their promises only as occasion allows, in fact promoting an inflation rate of two percent per year, which is anything but stable for prices.
So intent is the Fed on controlling every last aspect of financial activity, that they have undermined the best open markets of the world, in bonds, stocks, commodities and anything else they can get their greedy hands upon.
Markets no longer move on supply and demand or fundamental forces, but are solely and completely tethered to proclamations and idle talk of agents of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), the People's Bank of China (PBOC), and the European Central Bank (ECB).
It's all rigged, all the time and readers are urged to do their own research into financial matters. Unless and until the fraud of banks and the agents of the Fed and other central banks are brought entirely to light there will be no financial freedom, only crony capitalism, fascist rhetoric and insane, unbalanced economic polices.
May the Farce Be With You:
S&P 500: 2,040.04, -7.59 (0.37%)
Dow: 17,435.40, -91.22 (0.52%)
NASDAQ: 4,712.53, -26.59 (0.56%)
Crude Oil 48.68 -0.20% Gold 1,255.70 -1.47% EUR/USD 1.1203 -0.12% 10-Yr Bond 1.85 -1.86% Corn 390.00 -2.38% Copper 2.07 -0.63% Silver 16.51 -3.63% Natural Gas 2.04 +1.75% Russell 2000 1,094.78 -0.74% VIX 16.33 +2.38% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4609 +0.09% USD/JPY 109.9550 -0.20%
Labels:
BOJ,
central banks,
China,
counterfeit,
currency,
ECB,
Europe,
Fed,
Federal Reserve,
fraud,
Japan,
manipulation,
manipulators,
PBOC
Wednesday, May 18, 2016
Fed Jawboning Flattens Stocks, Boosts Dollar, Sends Treasury Yields Soaring
Hearing all this Fed-speak, one might pine for the days of old, when central bankers were seen and not heard, when their meetings were the stuff of secrets and rituals and transparency was reserved for a type of adhesive tape.
The current roster of the federal reserve is a lineup of chattering old men and women more suited for a Sunday festival than the stuff of high finance.
Regardless of one's opinion of the federal reserve, one thing is certain: they have Wall Street on edge. With the release of the minutes from April's FOMC fiasco, the dollar surged - in the main against the yen and euro - stocks tanked back to break-even for the day and the 10-year note yield shot up like a rocket, ending the day at 1.88%, a move of nearly seven percent.
Oil and PMs fell, as planned. It's ridiculous.
S&P 500: 2,047.63, +0.42 (0.02%)
Dow: 17,526.62, -3.36 (0.02%)
NASDAQ: 4,739.12, +23.39 (0.50%)
Crude Oil 48.40 -1.20% Gold 1,259.50 -1.36% EUR/USD 1.1217 -0.84% 10-Yr Bond 1.88 +6.88% Corn 399.50 +0.63% Copper 2.06 -1.17% Silver 16.92 -1.88% Natural Gas 2.01 -2.05% Russell 2000 1,102.95 +0.48% VIX 15.95 +2.44% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4597 +0.94% USD/JPY 110.1950 +0.96%
The current roster of the federal reserve is a lineup of chattering old men and women more suited for a Sunday festival than the stuff of high finance.
Regardless of one's opinion of the federal reserve, one thing is certain: they have Wall Street on edge. With the release of the minutes from April's FOMC fiasco, the dollar surged - in the main against the yen and euro - stocks tanked back to break-even for the day and the 10-year note yield shot up like a rocket, ending the day at 1.88%, a move of nearly seven percent.
Oil and PMs fell, as planned. It's ridiculous.
S&P 500: 2,047.63, +0.42 (0.02%)
Dow: 17,526.62, -3.36 (0.02%)
NASDAQ: 4,739.12, +23.39 (0.50%)
Crude Oil 48.40 -1.20% Gold 1,259.50 -1.36% EUR/USD 1.1217 -0.84% 10-Yr Bond 1.88 +6.88% Corn 399.50 +0.63% Copper 2.06 -1.17% Silver 16.92 -1.88% Natural Gas 2.01 -2.05% Russell 2000 1,102.95 +0.48% VIX 15.95 +2.44% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4597 +0.94% USD/JPY 110.1950 +0.96%
Labels:
bonds,
central banks,
Euro,
Federal Reserve,
FOMC minutes,
Yen
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
Markets Continue To Not Make Sense
Up yesterday, down today.
Anybody not seeing a pattern here. Today's dipsy-doodle was assigned to a couple of Fed yakkers telling the market that a June rate hike might be in play.
So, is the market calling the Fed's bluff? Or, is it the other way around?
Your guess is as good as anyone's.
Tuesday's Trauma:
S&P 500: 2,047.21, -19.45 (0.94%)
Dow: 17,529.98, -180.73 (1.02%)
NASDAQ: 4,715.73, -59.73 (1.25%)
Crude Oil 48.53 +0.46% Gold 1,281.20 +0.34% EUR/USD 1.1312 0.00% 10-Yr Bond 1.76 +0.34% Corn 397.25 +0.06% Copper 2.10 +0.31% Silver 17.30 +0.26% Natural Gas 2.05 +0.29% Russell 2000 1,097.68 -1.66% VIX 15.57 +6.06% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4453 -0.05% USD/JPY 109.1400 0.00%
Anybody not seeing a pattern here. Today's dipsy-doodle was assigned to a couple of Fed yakkers telling the market that a June rate hike might be in play.
So, is the market calling the Fed's bluff? Or, is it the other way around?
Your guess is as good as anyone's.
Tuesday's Trauma:
S&P 500: 2,047.21, -19.45 (0.94%)
Dow: 17,529.98, -180.73 (1.02%)
NASDAQ: 4,715.73, -59.73 (1.25%)
Crude Oil 48.53 +0.46% Gold 1,281.20 +0.34% EUR/USD 1.1312 0.00% 10-Yr Bond 1.76 +0.34% Corn 397.25 +0.06% Copper 2.10 +0.31% Silver 17.30 +0.26% Natural Gas 2.05 +0.29% Russell 2000 1,097.68 -1.66% VIX 15.57 +6.06% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4453 -0.05% USD/JPY 109.1400 0.00%
Monday, May 16, 2016
Sideways Trade Continues As Markets Respond - Like Magic - To Nothing
There was absolutely nothing upon which to base trades upon today, other than the concept that on Friday the Dow fell to the low end of the recent range (i.e., 17,500-18,000).
Therefore, it was incumbent upon market participants - meaning the Fed and their agents, particularly, Citadel - to boost asset prices to a more reasonable level in terms of keeping the charade going.
If there was any news at all that would have affected equities, it was the Empire Manufacturing Index falling nineteen points from April to -9.0 for the May reading. It's obvious that business conditions in Andrew Cuomo's fairy-tale land of the $15 minimum wage are horrible. one only has to visit upstate New York communities such as Rochester, Syracuse or Buffalo to understand the depth of despair in the business community.
Nonetheless, Wall Street is disturbingly disconnected from the reality of Main Street America and even further removed from their upstate brethren.
Carry on.
Bad Joke of the Day: Recovery!
S&P 500: 2,066.66, +20.05 (0.98%)
Dow: 17,710.71, +175.39 (1.00%)
NASDAQ: 4,775.46, +57.78 (1.22%)
Crude Oil 47.86 +0.29% Gold 1,276.70 +0.20% EUR/USD 1.1316 -0.02% 10-Yr Bond 1.7530 +2.82% Corn 392.50 -0.38% Copper 2.09 +0.17% Silver 17.21 +0.33% Natural Gas 2.04 +0.44% Russell 2000 1,116.21 +1.25% VIX 14.68 -2.39% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4419 +0.08% USD/JPY 109.05 -0.0046%
Therefore, it was incumbent upon market participants - meaning the Fed and their agents, particularly, Citadel - to boost asset prices to a more reasonable level in terms of keeping the charade going.
If there was any news at all that would have affected equities, it was the Empire Manufacturing Index falling nineteen points from April to -9.0 for the May reading. It's obvious that business conditions in Andrew Cuomo's fairy-tale land of the $15 minimum wage are horrible. one only has to visit upstate New York communities such as Rochester, Syracuse or Buffalo to understand the depth of despair in the business community.
Nonetheless, Wall Street is disturbingly disconnected from the reality of Main Street America and even further removed from their upstate brethren.
Carry on.
Bad Joke of the Day: Recovery!
S&P 500: 2,066.66, +20.05 (0.98%)
Dow: 17,710.71, +175.39 (1.00%)
NASDAQ: 4,775.46, +57.78 (1.22%)
Crude Oil 47.86 +0.29% Gold 1,276.70 +0.20% EUR/USD 1.1316 -0.02% 10-Yr Bond 1.7530 +2.82% Corn 392.50 -0.38% Copper 2.09 +0.17% Silver 17.21 +0.33% Natural Gas 2.04 +0.44% Russell 2000 1,116.21 +1.25% VIX 14.68 -2.39% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4419 +0.08% USD/JPY 109.05 -0.0046%
Labels:
Andrew Cuomo,
Citadel,
Empire Manufacturing Index,
Fed,
New York,
New York State,
NY,
recovery
Friday, May 13, 2016
Friday The 13th Sell-Off Nearly Breaks Through Downside Range On Dow Industrials
Yesterday, Money Daily extolled the virtues of ignoring intra-day movement on the major indices and pointed out that the last time the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed below the magic mark at 17,500, was nearly two months ago, on March 18 (17,481.89).
The waterfall decline on Dow stocks Friday put an exclamation mark on that post, as stocks fell to within a whisper of the bottom end of the tight range with 18,000 as the top and 17,500 as the bottom.
Friday's trading also assured that US indices would end the week in the red for the third straight week and fourth time in the past seven, suggesting the five closes above 18,000 in mid-April were aberrations rather than normative market behavior.
Thus, despite a completely phony report from the US Census that saw sales by U.S. retailers leap 1.3% in April, marking the biggest month-over-month gain in a year, the exodus from stocks continued unabated. While the indices have regained all of their losses from January and early February, institutional money has been selling all along, leaving the market largely in the hands of small investors and... please be seated, because this is a shocker... central banks.
It's widely understood that the Bank of Japan, that country's central bank, is heavily invested in its own stock market, propping up prices on the Nikkei, apparently to no avail, since the benchmark index is down sharply this year, and, unlike its counterpart in the US, has not rallied back to glory.
The Nikkei made a triple top last summer with peak closes in the 20,860 range. On Friday, the Nikkei closed at 16,412.21 and is down sharply on the year (it closed out 2015 at 19,033). Make no mistake, off its highs from June through August of last year, the Nikkei has fallen into bear market territory, even though the Bank of Japan has been furiously buying shares in the largest companies, as explained in this article by none other than the Wall Street Journal.
It was reported just the other day that the Swiss National Bank was wisely using some of its money to buy shares of Apple (AAPL) as Carl Icahn was liquidating his holdings in the company and the stock was slumping to two-year lows.
Is there any wonder that people have little faith in their governments and are rapidly losing faith in other institutions, especially those which conjure money out of thin air. When central banks are actively bidding in markets of all sorts - from precious metals to oil to stocks and bonds - how can there be any rational approach to investing or any kind of reasonable price discovery. Everything is subject to the inane whims of people in ivory towers who think they know more than anybody else about how the world should operate. In truth, they are destroying the system that spewed out their jobs and paychecks.
When people finally awaken to the massive misallocation of capital and enormous malinvestments by the issuers of paper money it's going to be too late. Central banks cannot - at least not in a rational world - buy up shares of everything in order to keep the global economy humming along while at the same time issuing critical mountains of debt in the form of digital deposits and bonds (which they are, in effect, also buying from themselves).
There will be a crash, a day of reckoning, probably multiple ones, when the cnetral bank global ponzi scheme is finally exposed, and that could happen at any time.
If the stock markets begin breaking down, it should be seen as a sign that the final chapter of extraordinary central bank policy which began with the financial crisis in 2008, is underway. The endgame is likely to resemble 50-70% declines in major stock indices, 10-year interest rates at zero of less (already there in some countries) and massive disruptions of businesses, bank closures, or worse, outright confiscation of deposits by the banks holding trillions of dollars, yen, yuan, euros and pounds.
This is not fiction, but the reality of the past eight years of nightmare economics spawned by the Federal Reserve and their brethren central bankers.
But, as it has been since the collapse of the global economy in 2008, when central banks have endless supplies of fictional fiat to spend, crashes like Friday's can be aborted, as was this one, right at 3:00 pm, with just an hour left in the trading day. Agents of the Fed stepped in at the most dangerous moment to hold the line at 17,500.
André Maginot would be impressed.
The only problem is that this kind of madness cannot go on forever without incredibly dangerous distortions and serious, lasting repercussions.
For the week:
DOW: -205.31 (-1.16%)
S&P 500: -10.53 (-0.51%)
NASDAQ: -18.48 (-0.39)
Friday's Fall:
S&P 500: 2,046.61, -17.50 (0.85%)
Dow: 17,535.32, -185.18 (1.05%)
NASDAQ: 4,717.68, -19.66 (0.41%)
Crude Oil 46.32 -0.81% Gold 1,274.80 +0.28% EUR/USD 1.1308 -0.58% 10-Yr Bond 1.70 -2.96% Corn 390.50 +0.39% Copper 2.08 +0.14% Silver 17.16 +0.30% Natural Gas 2.10 -2.55% Russell 2000 1,102.44 -0.56% VIX 15.04 +4.37% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4359 -0.61% USD/JPY 108.6400 -0.40%
The waterfall decline on Dow stocks Friday put an exclamation mark on that post, as stocks fell to within a whisper of the bottom end of the tight range with 18,000 as the top and 17,500 as the bottom.
Friday's trading also assured that US indices would end the week in the red for the third straight week and fourth time in the past seven, suggesting the five closes above 18,000 in mid-April were aberrations rather than normative market behavior.
Thus, despite a completely phony report from the US Census that saw sales by U.S. retailers leap 1.3% in April, marking the biggest month-over-month gain in a year, the exodus from stocks continued unabated. While the indices have regained all of their losses from January and early February, institutional money has been selling all along, leaving the market largely in the hands of small investors and... please be seated, because this is a shocker... central banks.
It's widely understood that the Bank of Japan, that country's central bank, is heavily invested in its own stock market, propping up prices on the Nikkei, apparently to no avail, since the benchmark index is down sharply this year, and, unlike its counterpart in the US, has not rallied back to glory.
The Nikkei made a triple top last summer with peak closes in the 20,860 range. On Friday, the Nikkei closed at 16,412.21 and is down sharply on the year (it closed out 2015 at 19,033). Make no mistake, off its highs from June through August of last year, the Nikkei has fallen into bear market territory, even though the Bank of Japan has been furiously buying shares in the largest companies, as explained in this article by none other than the Wall Street Journal.
It was reported just the other day that the Swiss National Bank was wisely using some of its money to buy shares of Apple (AAPL) as Carl Icahn was liquidating his holdings in the company and the stock was slumping to two-year lows.
Is there any wonder that people have little faith in their governments and are rapidly losing faith in other institutions, especially those which conjure money out of thin air. When central banks are actively bidding in markets of all sorts - from precious metals to oil to stocks and bonds - how can there be any rational approach to investing or any kind of reasonable price discovery. Everything is subject to the inane whims of people in ivory towers who think they know more than anybody else about how the world should operate. In truth, they are destroying the system that spewed out their jobs and paychecks.
When people finally awaken to the massive misallocation of capital and enormous malinvestments by the issuers of paper money it's going to be too late. Central banks cannot - at least not in a rational world - buy up shares of everything in order to keep the global economy humming along while at the same time issuing critical mountains of debt in the form of digital deposits and bonds (which they are, in effect, also buying from themselves).
There will be a crash, a day of reckoning, probably multiple ones, when the cnetral bank global ponzi scheme is finally exposed, and that could happen at any time.
If the stock markets begin breaking down, it should be seen as a sign that the final chapter of extraordinary central bank policy which began with the financial crisis in 2008, is underway. The endgame is likely to resemble 50-70% declines in major stock indices, 10-year interest rates at zero of less (already there in some countries) and massive disruptions of businesses, bank closures, or worse, outright confiscation of deposits by the banks holding trillions of dollars, yen, yuan, euros and pounds.
This is not fiction, but the reality of the past eight years of nightmare economics spawned by the Federal Reserve and their brethren central bankers.
But, as it has been since the collapse of the global economy in 2008, when central banks have endless supplies of fictional fiat to spend, crashes like Friday's can be aborted, as was this one, right at 3:00 pm, with just an hour left in the trading day. Agents of the Fed stepped in at the most dangerous moment to hold the line at 17,500.
André Maginot would be impressed.
The only problem is that this kind of madness cannot go on forever without incredibly dangerous distortions and serious, lasting repercussions.
For the week:
DOW: -205.31 (-1.16%)
S&P 500: -10.53 (-0.51%)
NASDAQ: -18.48 (-0.39)
Friday's Fall:
S&P 500: 2,046.61, -17.50 (0.85%)
Dow: 17,535.32, -185.18 (1.05%)
NASDAQ: 4,717.68, -19.66 (0.41%)
Crude Oil 46.32 -0.81% Gold 1,274.80 +0.28% EUR/USD 1.1308 -0.58% 10-Yr Bond 1.70 -2.96% Corn 390.50 +0.39% Copper 2.08 +0.14% Silver 17.16 +0.30% Natural Gas 2.10 -2.55% Russell 2000 1,102.44 -0.56% VIX 15.04 +4.37% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4359 -0.61% USD/JPY 108.6400 -0.40%
Labels:
2008,
Bank of Japan,
BOJ,
central banks,
Dow Industrials,
Euro,
Nikkei,
Pound Sterling,
SNB,
Swiss National Bank,
trading
Thursday, May 12, 2016
(NOT) Paying Attention To Intra-Day Swings
Shortly after the open today, the Dow had shot up 88 points.
By noon, it was down 87, thus, making a 1% move in the course of 2 1/2 hours.
Coincidence or central planning aside, the upside move equaled the downside move, nearly to the penny.
From noon until 2:00 pm, the Dow index clawed back all of the losses and was trading positively again, up around 40 points, or, just about half of the early day gains. Eventually, the Dow closed up a few points, more or less unchanged.
Day-traders may be scratching their collective skulls over this odd pattern, though it should be noted that almost none of the moves - to the up or downside - had anything at all to do with fundamentals, sentiment, forward-thinking, the presidential election cycle, or the price of pork in China.
It probably had everything to do with front-running algos which dominate the so-called "trading," which has become more of a skimming operation by firms like Citadel and other adherents of non-free market operations.
The headline financial media will try to come up with story lines to match the mood, though none of them can adequately pass even the most rudimentary smell test. The financial talking heads in macro-land are faking it as best they can, while the market remains stuck in a no-man's land that's been in place for just about a year now (taking the long view), or, a truly narrow range on the Dow between 17,500 and 18,000 since March 18.
On 34 of the past 39 trading days (including today) the Dow closed within that range. Of the five days it closed outside that range, all of them were above the 18,000 line, the highest being 18,096, on April 20.
Essentially, stocks have been going nowhere for quite some time, especially over the past month and a half, in which the total range was roughly three percent.
Which brings us to the question of intra-day moves and whether or not to pay them any mind. Unless one is engaged in betting with friends on market swings, or day-trading (an occupation which can put your whole house in jeopardy), intra-day swings should be discounted dramatically. The old saying, "the trend is your friend," doesn't apply unless you're looking of weeks, months or years.
Going Nowhere, Slowly:
S&P 500: 2,064.11, -0.35 (0.02%)
Dow: 17,720.50, +9.38 (0.05%)
NASDAQ: 4,737.33, -23.35 (0.49%)
Crude Oil 46.39 -0.66% Gold 1,267.40 -0.30% EUR/USD 1.1376 +0.02% 10-Yr Bond 1.76 +1.15% Corn 387.50 -0.39% Copper 2.07 -0.05% Silver 17.08 -0.16% Natural Gas 2.13 -0.97% Russell 2000 1,108.60 -0.55% VIX 14.41 -1.91% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4445 -0.01% USD/JPY 109.0300 -0.05%
By noon, it was down 87, thus, making a 1% move in the course of 2 1/2 hours.
Coincidence or central planning aside, the upside move equaled the downside move, nearly to the penny.
From noon until 2:00 pm, the Dow index clawed back all of the losses and was trading positively again, up around 40 points, or, just about half of the early day gains. Eventually, the Dow closed up a few points, more or less unchanged.
Day-traders may be scratching their collective skulls over this odd pattern, though it should be noted that almost none of the moves - to the up or downside - had anything at all to do with fundamentals, sentiment, forward-thinking, the presidential election cycle, or the price of pork in China.
It probably had everything to do with front-running algos which dominate the so-called "trading," which has become more of a skimming operation by firms like Citadel and other adherents of non-free market operations.
The headline financial media will try to come up with story lines to match the mood, though none of them can adequately pass even the most rudimentary smell test. The financial talking heads in macro-land are faking it as best they can, while the market remains stuck in a no-man's land that's been in place for just about a year now (taking the long view), or, a truly narrow range on the Dow between 17,500 and 18,000 since March 18.
On 34 of the past 39 trading days (including today) the Dow closed within that range. Of the five days it closed outside that range, all of them were above the 18,000 line, the highest being 18,096, on April 20.
Essentially, stocks have been going nowhere for quite some time, especially over the past month and a half, in which the total range was roughly three percent.
Which brings us to the question of intra-day moves and whether or not to pay them any mind. Unless one is engaged in betting with friends on market swings, or day-trading (an occupation which can put your whole house in jeopardy), intra-day swings should be discounted dramatically. The old saying, "the trend is your friend," doesn't apply unless you're looking of weeks, months or years.
Going Nowhere, Slowly:
S&P 500: 2,064.11, -0.35 (0.02%)
Dow: 17,720.50, +9.38 (0.05%)
NASDAQ: 4,737.33, -23.35 (0.49%)
Crude Oil 46.39 -0.66% Gold 1,267.40 -0.30% EUR/USD 1.1376 +0.02% 10-Yr Bond 1.76 +1.15% Corn 387.50 -0.39% Copper 2.07 -0.05% Silver 17.08 -0.16% Natural Gas 2.13 -0.97% Russell 2000 1,108.60 -0.55% VIX 14.41 -1.91% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4445 -0.01% USD/JPY 109.0300 -0.05%
Wednesday, May 11, 2016
The Great Give-Back; Stocks Looking Increasingly Risky
Remember all those big gains and happy faces on Wall Street after Tuesday's close?
All gone.
Because, stocks are tremendously overpriced.
Of course, there are other issues plaguing the US and global economies, but there really is no good reason to overpay for anything. From lettuce to gas to stone pavers, there's a worldwide oversupply of everything, and that includes stock certificates.
What is in short supply are honest politicians, central bankers who have morals, and honest money.
Buy gold. Buy silver.
Hump Day:
S&P 500: 2,064.46; -19.93 (0.96%)
Dow: 17,711.12, -217.23 (1.21%)
NASDAQ: 4,760.69, -49.19 (1.02%)
Crude Oil 45.99 +2.98% Gold 1,278.70 +1.10% EUR/USD 1.1427 -0.03% 10-Yr Bond 1.74 -1.31% Corn 376.25 -1.25% Copper 2.10 +0.26% Silver 17.45 +2.09% Natural Gas 2.17 +0.42% Russell 2000 1,114.74 -1.25% VIX 14.69 +7.78% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4443 -0.03% USD/JPY 108.4565 +0.02%
All gone.
Because, stocks are tremendously overpriced.
Of course, there are other issues plaguing the US and global economies, but there really is no good reason to overpay for anything. From lettuce to gas to stone pavers, there's a worldwide oversupply of everything, and that includes stock certificates.
What is in short supply are honest politicians, central bankers who have morals, and honest money.
Buy gold. Buy silver.
Hump Day:
S&P 500: 2,064.46; -19.93 (0.96%)
Dow: 17,711.12, -217.23 (1.21%)
NASDAQ: 4,760.69, -49.19 (1.02%)
Crude Oil 45.99 +2.98% Gold 1,278.70 +1.10% EUR/USD 1.1427 -0.03% 10-Yr Bond 1.74 -1.31% Corn 376.25 -1.25% Copper 2.10 +0.26% Silver 17.45 +2.09% Natural Gas 2.17 +0.42% Russell 2000 1,114.74 -1.25% VIX 14.69 +7.78% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4443 -0.03% USD/JPY 108.4565 +0.02%
Tuesday, May 10, 2016
Big, Baseless Rally Is Pointless; New All-Time Highs Pipe Dreams
BORING!
And baseless.
Here's the deal. When stocks outperform - on a YTD basis - gold and/or silver, in constant dollar terms, then you might have something. Until that time, stocks are simply paper blowing in the wind. Even if stocks shoot to new highs (previous all-time highs were about a year ago), they'll likely e worth the same or less in inflation-weighted terms, whereas precious metals (and other select assets) will be solid.
Most gold and silver investors have patiently been loading up over the past four years (many of them for much longer than that) and they are now sitting pretty. There are a good number of precious metals investors who hope the price suppression, which has been obvious for a long time, continues for another six months to a year, so they can buy more at depressed levels.
Be patient, my friend.
Holy Short Squeeze, Batman!
S&P 500: 2,084.39, +25.70 (1.25%)
Dow: 17,928.35, +222.44 (1.26%)
NASDAQ: 4,809.88, +59.67 (1.26%)
Crude Oil 44.47 +2.37% Gold 1,267.80 +0.09% EUR/USD 1.1370 -0.13% 10-Yr Bond 1.76 0.00% Corn 380.75 +3.18% Copper 2.10 -0.28% Silver 17.12 +0.21% Natural Gas 2.15 +2.43% Russell 2000 1,128.83 +0.95% VIX 13.65 -6.31% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4444 +0.26% USD/JPY 109.2850 +0.78%
And baseless.
Here's the deal. When stocks outperform - on a YTD basis - gold and/or silver, in constant dollar terms, then you might have something. Until that time, stocks are simply paper blowing in the wind. Even if stocks shoot to new highs (previous all-time highs were about a year ago), they'll likely e worth the same or less in inflation-weighted terms, whereas precious metals (and other select assets) will be solid.
Most gold and silver investors have patiently been loading up over the past four years (many of them for much longer than that) and they are now sitting pretty. There are a good number of precious metals investors who hope the price suppression, which has been obvious for a long time, continues for another six months to a year, so they can buy more at depressed levels.
Be patient, my friend.
Holy Short Squeeze, Batman!
S&P 500: 2,084.39, +25.70 (1.25%)
Dow: 17,928.35, +222.44 (1.26%)
NASDAQ: 4,809.88, +59.67 (1.26%)
Crude Oil 44.47 +2.37% Gold 1,267.80 +0.09% EUR/USD 1.1370 -0.13% 10-Yr Bond 1.76 0.00% Corn 380.75 +3.18% Copper 2.10 -0.28% Silver 17.12 +0.21% Natural Gas 2.15 +2.43% Russell 2000 1,128.83 +0.95% VIX 13.65 -6.31% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4444 +0.26% USD/JPY 109.2850 +0.78%
Monday, May 9, 2016
China's Commodity Carnage Crushes Crude, PMs
Overnight, China stocks fell as more poor economic data was presented, as hopes for a domestic recovery were sidelined by declining import and export data.
Additionally, commodity prices were negatively affected by government regulations which aim to crack down on speculation.
This translated into a very confused day for equity pros, though commodity traders apparently had the sell button surgically attached to their index fingers, with prices for oil down more than three percent while gold and silver took deep declines.
At the end of the day, stocks leveled off roughly where they began the day, though markets appear vulnerable to a downturn.
Monday's Mingle:
S&P 500: 2,058.69, +1.55 (0.08%)
Dow: 17,705.91, -34.72 (0.20%)
NASDAQ: 4,750.21, +14.05 (0.30%)
Crude Oil 43.24 -3.18% Gold 1,265.80 -0.06% EUR/USD 1.1382 -0.02% 10-Yr Bond 1.76 -1.07% Corn 369.25 -2.19% Copper 2.10 -0.19% Silver 17.07 -0.14% Natural Gas 2.10 -0.24% Russell 2000 1,118.25 +0.32% VIX 14.57 -1.02% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4410 +0.03% USD/JPY 108.4335 -0.01%
Additionally, commodity prices were negatively affected by government regulations which aim to crack down on speculation.
This translated into a very confused day for equity pros, though commodity traders apparently had the sell button surgically attached to their index fingers, with prices for oil down more than three percent while gold and silver took deep declines.
At the end of the day, stocks leveled off roughly where they began the day, though markets appear vulnerable to a downturn.
Monday's Mingle:
S&P 500: 2,058.69, +1.55 (0.08%)
Dow: 17,705.91, -34.72 (0.20%)
NASDAQ: 4,750.21, +14.05 (0.30%)
Crude Oil 43.24 -3.18% Gold 1,265.80 -0.06% EUR/USD 1.1382 -0.02% 10-Yr Bond 1.76 -1.07% Corn 369.25 -2.19% Copper 2.10 -0.19% Silver 17.07 -0.14% Natural Gas 2.10 -0.24% Russell 2000 1,118.25 +0.32% VIX 14.57 -1.02% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4410 +0.03% USD/JPY 108.4335 -0.01%
Friday, May 6, 2016
Jobs Miss Mark: To Markets, OK, But FED COURTS DEPRESSION
Jobs. Who needs 'em?
Friday's epic non-farm payroll data turned out to be disappointing to the Fed cheerleaders and assorted brain-dead economists and analysts who are still touting the "recovery" mantra.
Instead of the predicted 205,000 net new jobs that were supposed to be created in April, the BLS reported a net gain of just 160,000, a 20% miss, but at least something to seize upon by those who believe in ultra-low interest rates (aka, free money).
Thus, in the world of bass-ackward economics, stocks actually gained on the final day of the week, thinking (probably correctly) that more evidence of a weak economy would cause the Fed to continue to pause on their relentless rate-hiking journey, which, to date, has been confined to one measly 0.25% hike in December of last year, which was a prima facia cause for a wicked stock market decline in January.
Since then, however, the Fed has talked down the rate hike theme with alarming accuracy as relates to paper assets (stocks), and the markets have responded in kind, reversing all of the losses from January and the first two weeks of February.
Odds of the Fed raising the federal funds rate in June are now approaching infinity, because the one thing the Fed wants to avoid is another market correction. They are, in the estimation of many leading private money managers, OUT OF THEIR MINDS.
A return to "normalized rates," - something on the order of 3-5% on the fed funds front - is still years out, and, since the only data the Fed is interested in happens to be the levels on the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ, the market is probably going to overrule the ivory tower charlatans at the Fed. Corporate profits are and have been heading south since the third quarter of 2015, and will likely continue to do so, as capital is being mis-allocated to an alarming degree.
The levels of absurdity between stock prices and profits also are approaching extreme levels. It's only a matter of time before investors (and the term is used loosely, because most of the market is algo-driven, speculative, and dominated by institutional buyers and sellers) give up on future gains, cash out and head to the safety of alternatives, those being cash, bonds, and precious metals to a small degree.
In other words, the Fed has not abolished the business cycle. They've managed only to delay the inevitable, and by delaying, in a perverse avoidance of any pain, will cause degrees more devastation to not just financial markets, but markets in everything.
The Fed is courting depression by denying the failure of their experiment in fiat money with no backing save faith, and that faith has been on the wane. Expect a cratering of the economy just in time for the November presidential election. Between now and then, plenty of market noise, but nothing any good at all.
For the Week:
Dow: -33.01 (-0.19%)
S&P 500: -8.16 (-0.40)
NASDAQ: -39.20 (-0.82)
On the day:
S&P 500: 2,057.14, +6.51 (0.32%)
Dow: 17,740.63, +79.92 (0.45%)
NASDAQ: 4,736.16, +19.06 (0.40%)
Crude Oil 44.56 +0.54% Gold 1,289.70 +1.37% EUR/USD 1.1405 -0.04% 10-Yr Bond 1.78 +1.83% Corn 377.25 +0.94% Copper 2.15 -0.09% Silver 17.50 +1.03% Natural Gas 2.09 +0.82% Russell 2000 1,114.72 +0.61% VIX 14.72 -7.48% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4431 0.00% USD/JPY 107.1050 -0.02%
Friday's epic non-farm payroll data turned out to be disappointing to the Fed cheerleaders and assorted brain-dead economists and analysts who are still touting the "recovery" mantra.
Instead of the predicted 205,000 net new jobs that were supposed to be created in April, the BLS reported a net gain of just 160,000, a 20% miss, but at least something to seize upon by those who believe in ultra-low interest rates (aka, free money).
Thus, in the world of bass-ackward economics, stocks actually gained on the final day of the week, thinking (probably correctly) that more evidence of a weak economy would cause the Fed to continue to pause on their relentless rate-hiking journey, which, to date, has been confined to one measly 0.25% hike in December of last year, which was a prima facia cause for a wicked stock market decline in January.
Since then, however, the Fed has talked down the rate hike theme with alarming accuracy as relates to paper assets (stocks), and the markets have responded in kind, reversing all of the losses from January and the first two weeks of February.
Odds of the Fed raising the federal funds rate in June are now approaching infinity, because the one thing the Fed wants to avoid is another market correction. They are, in the estimation of many leading private money managers, OUT OF THEIR MINDS.
A return to "normalized rates," - something on the order of 3-5% on the fed funds front - is still years out, and, since the only data the Fed is interested in happens to be the levels on the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ, the market is probably going to overrule the ivory tower charlatans at the Fed. Corporate profits are and have been heading south since the third quarter of 2015, and will likely continue to do so, as capital is being mis-allocated to an alarming degree.
The levels of absurdity between stock prices and profits also are approaching extreme levels. It's only a matter of time before investors (and the term is used loosely, because most of the market is algo-driven, speculative, and dominated by institutional buyers and sellers) give up on future gains, cash out and head to the safety of alternatives, those being cash, bonds, and precious metals to a small degree.
In other words, the Fed has not abolished the business cycle. They've managed only to delay the inevitable, and by delaying, in a perverse avoidance of any pain, will cause degrees more devastation to not just financial markets, but markets in everything.
The Fed is courting depression by denying the failure of their experiment in fiat money with no backing save faith, and that faith has been on the wane. Expect a cratering of the economy just in time for the November presidential election. Between now and then, plenty of market noise, but nothing any good at all.
For the Week:
Dow: -33.01 (-0.19%)
S&P 500: -8.16 (-0.40)
NASDAQ: -39.20 (-0.82)
On the day:
S&P 500: 2,057.14, +6.51 (0.32%)
Dow: 17,740.63, +79.92 (0.45%)
NASDAQ: 4,736.16, +19.06 (0.40%)
Crude Oil 44.56 +0.54% Gold 1,289.70 +1.37% EUR/USD 1.1405 -0.04% 10-Yr Bond 1.78 +1.83% Corn 377.25 +0.94% Copper 2.15 -0.09% Silver 17.50 +1.03% Natural Gas 2.09 +0.82% Russell 2000 1,114.72 +0.61% VIX 14.72 -7.48% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4431 0.00% USD/JPY 107.1050 -0.02%
Labels:
depression,
Fed,
federal funds,
fraud,
interest rates,
jobs,
non-farm payroll
Thursday, May 5, 2016
Stocks Pop, Drop, End Flat Before Jobs Friday
It is probably the dumbest thing going in the markets - besides, perhaps, waiting on FOMC decisions - but the monthly "Jobs Friday" fiasco is upon us once again, as breathless investors await one more dicey number form the government.
Prior to the market open on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its April Non-Farm Payroll figure, and by that traders will have access to vital information needed to access the health of the economy and trade stocks.
except for the fact that the numbers are largely a joke, have been proven to be such, and are not of importance to anybody in particular. They offer a rather fuzzy view of the employment conditions in the United States, if one is even inclined to believe them.
So, stocks went up, came down and finished just about where they started the day, with the Dow up, the S&P and NASDAQ ever so slightly to the downside.
Idiots On Parade:
S&P 500: 2,050.63, -0.49 (0.02%)
Dow: 17,660.71, +9.45 (0.05%)
NASDAQ: 4,717.09, -8.55 (0.18%)
Crude Oil 44.51 +1.67% Gold 1,279.60 +0.41% EUR/USD 1.1403 0.00% 10-Yr Bond 1.75 -2.07% Corn 373.75 -0.80% Copper 2.14 -1.92% Silver 17.38 +0.43% Natural Gas 2.08 -2.80% Russell 2000 1,107.95 -0.47% VIX 15.91 -0.87% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4485 +0.02% USD/JPY 107.2700 -0.01%
A note on the blatant unfairness within the judicial system:
Prior to the market open on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its April Non-Farm Payroll figure, and by that traders will have access to vital information needed to access the health of the economy and trade stocks.
except for the fact that the numbers are largely a joke, have been proven to be such, and are not of importance to anybody in particular. They offer a rather fuzzy view of the employment conditions in the United States, if one is even inclined to believe them.
So, stocks went up, came down and finished just about where they started the day, with the Dow up, the S&P and NASDAQ ever so slightly to the downside.
Idiots On Parade:
S&P 500: 2,050.63, -0.49 (0.02%)
Dow: 17,660.71, +9.45 (0.05%)
NASDAQ: 4,717.09, -8.55 (0.18%)
Crude Oil 44.51 +1.67% Gold 1,279.60 +0.41% EUR/USD 1.1403 0.00% 10-Yr Bond 1.75 -2.07% Corn 373.75 -0.80% Copper 2.14 -1.92% Silver 17.38 +0.43% Natural Gas 2.08 -2.80% Russell 2000 1,107.95 -0.47% VIX 15.91 -0.87% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4485 +0.02% USD/JPY 107.2700 -0.01%
A note on the blatant unfairness within the judicial system:
The Arbitration Association of America, which handles the majority of arbitration cases, charges $200 for an initial filing fee, not counting fees incurred by consumers who hire attorneys. The CFPB argues that fees like this have a cooling effect on potential claimants. Over the two-year period between 2010 and 2011, the CFPB found only 25 cases were filed by consumers with claims for under $1,000. For every dollar claimed, consumers won an average of 12% of the original claim in relief. Only 9% of consumers who took on financial institutions received any relief at all. In contrast, 93% of claims filed against consumers by financial institutions came out in the institution’s favor.
Labels:
BLS,
courts,
employment,
jobs,
judicial system,
non-farm payroll,
social justice,
unemployment
Wednesday, May 4, 2016
ADP Jobs Miss; Stocks Lower; Markets Appear Exhausted
The best analyst assumptions on where markets might be heading are probably not going to impress anybody this year. As usual, the best and brightest of Wall Street had rosy calculations heading into the new year and so far none of them are anywhere close to the reality of 2015.
That reality has the Dow and S&P clinging to one to two percent gains for the year, with the NASDAQ roughly six percent underwater.
This morning's miss in the ADP privater jobs report for April set a sullen tone for equities, having already been battered on Tuesday. The middle of the week turned out to be no better, sending stocks further into the red.
ADP's report of 156,00 new jobs in April was well below the average estimate of 193,000, and was the lowest number since March of 2013. The ADP report sets the stage for the BLS April non-farm jobs report, due out Friday.
Stocks have run out of gas, this current bull market having become the second longest in history a few days back, but the central banks haven't run out of money to print out of thin air, a specialty that also is apparently running its course and running the global economy into the ground.
With summer heading its way and the outlook for a Fed tightening looking more and more dubious for June or even July, investors are beginning to take money off the table and head into cash or other, more stable assets, particularly bonds, art, gold, silver and oil.
For the most part, equities are overpriced and volumes have been thin. A serious correction could occur within days or weeks. With nothing but bad news and data hitting the street and foreign markets on a regular basis, the casino is quickly running out of chips as the players cash in and head out of town.
S&P 500: 2,051.12, -12.25 (0.59%)
Dow: 17,651.26, -99.65 (0.56%)
NASDAQ: 4,725.64, -37.58 (0.79%)
Crude Oil 44.05 +0.92% Gold 1,281.60 +0.56% EUR/USD 1.1487 +0.01% 10-Yr Bond 1.78 -0.89% Corn 377.75 -0.53% Copper 2.18 -0.14% Silver 17.42 +0.69% Natural Gas 2.14 +2.83% Russell 2000 1,113.13 -0.77% VIX 16.05 +2.88% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4501 +0.02% USD/JPY 107.0170 +0.02%
That reality has the Dow and S&P clinging to one to two percent gains for the year, with the NASDAQ roughly six percent underwater.
This morning's miss in the ADP privater jobs report for April set a sullen tone for equities, having already been battered on Tuesday. The middle of the week turned out to be no better, sending stocks further into the red.
ADP's report of 156,00 new jobs in April was well below the average estimate of 193,000, and was the lowest number since March of 2013. The ADP report sets the stage for the BLS April non-farm jobs report, due out Friday.
Stocks have run out of gas, this current bull market having become the second longest in history a few days back, but the central banks haven't run out of money to print out of thin air, a specialty that also is apparently running its course and running the global economy into the ground.
With summer heading its way and the outlook for a Fed tightening looking more and more dubious for June or even July, investors are beginning to take money off the table and head into cash or other, more stable assets, particularly bonds, art, gold, silver and oil.
For the most part, equities are overpriced and volumes have been thin. A serious correction could occur within days or weeks. With nothing but bad news and data hitting the street and foreign markets on a regular basis, the casino is quickly running out of chips as the players cash in and head out of town.
S&P 500: 2,051.12, -12.25 (0.59%)
Dow: 17,651.26, -99.65 (0.56%)
NASDAQ: 4,725.64, -37.58 (0.79%)
Crude Oil 44.05 +0.92% Gold 1,281.60 +0.56% EUR/USD 1.1487 +0.01% 10-Yr Bond 1.78 -0.89% Corn 377.75 -0.53% Copper 2.18 -0.14% Silver 17.42 +0.69% Natural Gas 2.14 +2.83% Russell 2000 1,113.13 -0.77% VIX 16.05 +2.88% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4501 +0.02% USD/JPY 107.0170 +0.02%
Tuesday, May 3, 2016
Stocks, Oil Lower As Dollar Rebound Pushes Bond Price; Silver Suffers
The past few weeks haven't been very kind to the almighty greenback, but today was a respite from some concerted selling, sending stocks and oil lower.
While that scenario makes perfect sense for stocks and commodities in general, it sure doesn't help when the master manipulators manage to gang up on the one asset underpinning everything... not gold, silver.
Massive silver price suppression over the past 15 years has pushed the coin of common men to unheard of ratios in comparison to gold, and today was textbook slamming against the metal of the working man. While the absurdity of the 70:1 and higher silver to gold ratio has been discussed here in the past - and elsewhere, by more astute students of real money, it bears repeating, and repeating, until the price suppression stops completely.
That may be more of a pipe dream than winning the lottery, yet it is the one eventuality that must come to pass if the rule of central bankers and their idiotic QE and NIRP policies are ever to end and the financial universe is to regain some semblance of real markets and real prices, as opposed to the obviously fraudulent ones foisted upon the world by central bankers, especially those entertained by the US Federal Reserve.
With unlimited power to create money out of thin air, there is no market the master bankers cannot control, so it is easy to assume that they can absolutely pollute and disintegrate all price discovery mechanisms when it comes to silver, one of the smallest markets (in dollar terms, by their wicked design) of all.
But, to the guy or gal who is looking to keep wealth out of the corrupted central banking system and regain some sanity in his or her financial affairs, silver is a bottom holding, a base unit of measure, and insurance against what appears to be an advancing monetary apocalypse.
A one ounce bar of silver can still be had for under $20 US, and that little sliver of metallic hope may be all that's left between survival and tortuous, tyrannical totalitarianism.
As for stocks, they are but pieces of paper promises, and highly overrated as investment instruments. Compaies come and go, nations rise and fall, but silver will remain
S&P 500: 2,063.37, -18.06 (0.87%)
Dow: 17,750.91, -140.25 (0.78%)
NASDAQ: 4,763.22, -54.37 (1.13%)
Crude Oil 43.90 -1.97% Gold 1,288.20 -0.59% EUR/USD 1.1497 -0.26% 10-Yr Bond 1.80 -3.49% Corn 379.00 -3.25% Copper 2.22 -2.16% Silver 17.46 -1.26% Natural Gas 2.08 +2.01% Russell 2000 1,121.76 -1.68% VIX 15.60 +6.27% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4536 -0.88% USD/JPY 107.1130 +0.61%
While that scenario makes perfect sense for stocks and commodities in general, it sure doesn't help when the master manipulators manage to gang up on the one asset underpinning everything... not gold, silver.
Massive silver price suppression over the past 15 years has pushed the coin of common men to unheard of ratios in comparison to gold, and today was textbook slamming against the metal of the working man. While the absurdity of the 70:1 and higher silver to gold ratio has been discussed here in the past - and elsewhere, by more astute students of real money, it bears repeating, and repeating, until the price suppression stops completely.
That may be more of a pipe dream than winning the lottery, yet it is the one eventuality that must come to pass if the rule of central bankers and their idiotic QE and NIRP policies are ever to end and the financial universe is to regain some semblance of real markets and real prices, as opposed to the obviously fraudulent ones foisted upon the world by central bankers, especially those entertained by the US Federal Reserve.
With unlimited power to create money out of thin air, there is no market the master bankers cannot control, so it is easy to assume that they can absolutely pollute and disintegrate all price discovery mechanisms when it comes to silver, one of the smallest markets (in dollar terms, by their wicked design) of all.
But, to the guy or gal who is looking to keep wealth out of the corrupted central banking system and regain some sanity in his or her financial affairs, silver is a bottom holding, a base unit of measure, and insurance against what appears to be an advancing monetary apocalypse.
A one ounce bar of silver can still be had for under $20 US, and that little sliver of metallic hope may be all that's left between survival and tortuous, tyrannical totalitarianism.
As for stocks, they are but pieces of paper promises, and highly overrated as investment instruments. Compaies come and go, nations rise and fall, but silver will remain
S&P 500: 2,063.37, -18.06 (0.87%)
Dow: 17,750.91, -140.25 (0.78%)
NASDAQ: 4,763.22, -54.37 (1.13%)
Crude Oil 43.90 -1.97% Gold 1,288.20 -0.59% EUR/USD 1.1497 -0.26% 10-Yr Bond 1.80 -3.49% Corn 379.00 -3.25% Copper 2.22 -2.16% Silver 17.46 -1.26% Natural Gas 2.08 +2.01% Russell 2000 1,121.76 -1.68% VIX 15.60 +6.27% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4536 -0.88% USD/JPY 107.1130 +0.61%
Monday, May 2, 2016
All-Time Highs Likely Not Attainable, Nor Sustainable
Let's take a stroll down memory lane.
It's a short stroll, to just over a year ago, when the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ each made all-time highs.
The dates, and the levels are shown below:
S&P 500: 2134.28 (intra-day); 2130.82 (close), May 21, 2015 (both)
Dow Jones Industrials: 18,351.36 (intra-day); 18,312.39 (close), May 19, 2015 (both)
NASDAQ: 5164.36 (intra-day, June 24, 2015); 5160.09 (close, June 23, 2015)
For the first trading day of May, the forward move was largely based on nothing other than bad economic data (manufacturing output is at its lowest level since 2009), other than the "good" news that Atlantic City avoided defaulting on a $1.8 million bond obligation and possible bankruptcy.
When the Jersey shore city announced they were making good on their scheduled payment to creditors - right around noon - that was enough for the markets to get off the proverbial flat-line and go diagonal the rest of the session.
Stocks ended the day with solid gains, erasing nearly half the losses from the prior week, putting some skepticism to the time-worn "sell in May and go away" adage.
Anyone believing that the US averages are going to meet or exceed the all-time highs from one year ago are betting against the odds simply because the May through October time frame historically offers the lowest returns of any six-month period, based on data from 1928 to the present. [See chart at right]
Not only that, but the continued creep of deteriorating business conditions presages a continuation of the slow growth that's been typical for the past seven-plus years at best or a slide into outright recession, at worst. Recall that the first estimate of first quarter GDP was a disappointing 0.5%, which is pretty darn close to going backwards.
Thus, with the numbers above as targets, it is clear that the indices would have to move more than two percent between May and October - and sustain those levels - in order to attain and hold new all-time highs, an unlikely event.
For hard-core stock investors, this is a cold truth, one which promises to inflict a high degree of pain and loss for those who play against the odds.
Monday's Millings:
S&P 500: 2,081.43, +16.13 (0.78%)
Dow: 17,891.16, +117.52 (0.66%)
NASDAQ: 4,817.59, +42.24 (0.88%)
Crude Oil 44.77 -2.50% Gold 1,293.00 +0.19% EUR/USD 1.1533 +0.62% 10-Yr Bond 1.8650 +2.53% Corn 390.00 -0.45% Copper 2.26 -0.90% Silver 17.57 -1.40% Natural Gas 2.04 -6.57% Russell 2000 1,140.92 +0.89% VIX 14.68 -6.50% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4674 +0.56% USD/JPY 106.3950 +0.08%
It's a short stroll, to just over a year ago, when the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ each made all-time highs.
The dates, and the levels are shown below:
S&P 500: 2134.28 (intra-day); 2130.82 (close), May 21, 2015 (both)
Dow Jones Industrials: 18,351.36 (intra-day); 18,312.39 (close), May 19, 2015 (both)
NASDAQ: 5164.36 (intra-day, June 24, 2015); 5160.09 (close, June 23, 2015)
For the first trading day of May, the forward move was largely based on nothing other than bad economic data (manufacturing output is at its lowest level since 2009), other than the "good" news that Atlantic City avoided defaulting on a $1.8 million bond obligation and possible bankruptcy.
When the Jersey shore city announced they were making good on their scheduled payment to creditors - right around noon - that was enough for the markets to get off the proverbial flat-line and go diagonal the rest of the session.
Stocks ended the day with solid gains, erasing nearly half the losses from the prior week, putting some skepticism to the time-worn "sell in May and go away" adage.
Anyone believing that the US averages are going to meet or exceed the all-time highs from one year ago are betting against the odds simply because the May through October time frame historically offers the lowest returns of any six-month period, based on data from 1928 to the present. [See chart at right]Not only that, but the continued creep of deteriorating business conditions presages a continuation of the slow growth that's been typical for the past seven-plus years at best or a slide into outright recession, at worst. Recall that the first estimate of first quarter GDP was a disappointing 0.5%, which is pretty darn close to going backwards.
Thus, with the numbers above as targets, it is clear that the indices would have to move more than two percent between May and October - and sustain those levels - in order to attain and hold new all-time highs, an unlikely event.
For hard-core stock investors, this is a cold truth, one which promises to inflict a high degree of pain and loss for those who play against the odds.
Monday's Millings:
S&P 500: 2,081.43, +16.13 (0.78%)
Dow: 17,891.16, +117.52 (0.66%)
NASDAQ: 4,817.59, +42.24 (0.88%)
Crude Oil 44.77 -2.50% Gold 1,293.00 +0.19% EUR/USD 1.1533 +0.62% 10-Yr Bond 1.8650 +2.53% Corn 390.00 -0.45% Copper 2.26 -0.90% Silver 17.57 -1.40% Natural Gas 2.04 -6.57% Russell 2000 1,140.92 +0.89% VIX 14.68 -6.50% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4674 +0.56% USD/JPY 106.3950 +0.08%
Friday, April 29, 2016
Rough Week For Stocks; Gold, Silver Outperform Everything
A frantic, algo-churning, late-day rally brought the US averages back to respectability, but stocks ended the week - and the month of April (no window dressing) - on a sour note Friday, with all the averages losing, but especially the NASDAQ, down more than 2.5% on the week.
The week's events included an ostensibly neutral FOMC policy meeting midweek, at which the Fed kept rates at their unusually-accomodative level, prompting speculation that their next meeting (June) might indeed move the federal funds rate from its current level of 0.25-0.50, another 25 basis points higher, to 0.50 to 0.75.
With credibility becoming more and more of an issue for central bankers globally, the rationale for another rate hike is obvious, though the wisdom of one would be suspect. A rise in rates would likely trigger another waterfall event in equities, something which the Fed wishes to avoid with all due intent.
However, with CPI running below their desired level of 2.0% and news Friday that first quarter GDP was an anemic 0.5%, barely above recession level, the assorted Ph.d. crowd in Washington seems trapped once more.
Looking ahead, the big number for the week will be Friday, when non-farm payrolls for April are released prior to the market open. In the interim, more companies will be reporting first quarter results, which have been moribund for the most part.
If trends continue at the current pace and in the same direction, there would be almost no reason for the Fed to raise rates in June, excepting that the almighty dollar may be coming under further pressure. The unwind of the USD/JPY pair carry trade is putting downward pressure on the dollar and doesn't appear to be abating.
If there was one bright spot for the manipulators-in-charge, it was in the oil patch, with WTI crude trading at multiple-month highs. With an enormous glut still affecting worldwide prices coupled with the refusal of major producers to slow their production speaks volumes to the lack of democracy in what should be a strict supply-demand market. Prices have nearly doubled since touching down in the $26 range earlier in the year, a move that may prove problematic and unsustainable.
More challenges to the status quo will appear this week and beyond, as there is almost nobody who believes in the tortured figures the BLS produces for jobs. Any uptick in the unemployment rate will be a shock and a body blow to the Fed's plans, with the potential not only of a complete stoppage rate increase talk, but a potential reversal and the specter of NIRP (negative interest rate policy), the same that has swept Japan and Europe to - and possibly over - the edge of the monetary cliff.
Meanwhile, the herd appears to be turning to investments without counter-party risk and no interest: gold and silver, which don't pay dividends but also do not require storage by a bank (unless in enormous quantity). It certainly seems that the age of fiat money is wobbling badly.
For the week:
Dow: -229.97 (1.28%)
S&P 500: -26.27 (1.26%)
NASDAQ: -130.87 (2.67%)
Friday's (un)Funnies:
S&P 500: 2,065.30, -10.51 (0.51%)
Dow: 17,773.64, -57.12 (0.32%)
NASDAQ: 4,775.36, -29.93 (0.62%)
Crude Oil 45.99 -0.09% Gold 1,296.30 +2.36% EUR/USD 1.1452 +0.88% 10-Yr Bond 1.82 -1.03% Corn 391.50 +0.06% Copper 2.28 +2.04% Silver 17.88 +1.63% Natural Gas 2.14 +3.03% Russell 2000 1,130.84 -0.84% VIX 15.72 +3.29% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4610 +0.04% USD/JPY 106.3900 -1.58%
The week's events included an ostensibly neutral FOMC policy meeting midweek, at which the Fed kept rates at their unusually-accomodative level, prompting speculation that their next meeting (June) might indeed move the federal funds rate from its current level of 0.25-0.50, another 25 basis points higher, to 0.50 to 0.75.
With credibility becoming more and more of an issue for central bankers globally, the rationale for another rate hike is obvious, though the wisdom of one would be suspect. A rise in rates would likely trigger another waterfall event in equities, something which the Fed wishes to avoid with all due intent.
However, with CPI running below their desired level of 2.0% and news Friday that first quarter GDP was an anemic 0.5%, barely above recession level, the assorted Ph.d. crowd in Washington seems trapped once more.
Looking ahead, the big number for the week will be Friday, when non-farm payrolls for April are released prior to the market open. In the interim, more companies will be reporting first quarter results, which have been moribund for the most part.
If trends continue at the current pace and in the same direction, there would be almost no reason for the Fed to raise rates in June, excepting that the almighty dollar may be coming under further pressure. The unwind of the USD/JPY pair carry trade is putting downward pressure on the dollar and doesn't appear to be abating.
If there was one bright spot for the manipulators-in-charge, it was in the oil patch, with WTI crude trading at multiple-month highs. With an enormous glut still affecting worldwide prices coupled with the refusal of major producers to slow their production speaks volumes to the lack of democracy in what should be a strict supply-demand market. Prices have nearly doubled since touching down in the $26 range earlier in the year, a move that may prove problematic and unsustainable.
More challenges to the status quo will appear this week and beyond, as there is almost nobody who believes in the tortured figures the BLS produces for jobs. Any uptick in the unemployment rate will be a shock and a body blow to the Fed's plans, with the potential not only of a complete stoppage rate increase talk, but a potential reversal and the specter of NIRP (negative interest rate policy), the same that has swept Japan and Europe to - and possibly over - the edge of the monetary cliff.
Meanwhile, the herd appears to be turning to investments without counter-party risk and no interest: gold and silver, which don't pay dividends but also do not require storage by a bank (unless in enormous quantity). It certainly seems that the age of fiat money is wobbling badly.
For the week:
Dow: -229.97 (1.28%)
S&P 500: -26.27 (1.26%)
NASDAQ: -130.87 (2.67%)
Friday's (un)Funnies:
S&P 500: 2,065.30, -10.51 (0.51%)
Dow: 17,773.64, -57.12 (0.32%)
NASDAQ: 4,775.36, -29.93 (0.62%)
Crude Oil 45.99 -0.09% Gold 1,296.30 +2.36% EUR/USD 1.1452 +0.88% 10-Yr Bond 1.82 -1.03% Corn 391.50 +0.06% Copper 2.28 +2.04% Silver 17.88 +1.63% Natural Gas 2.14 +3.03% Russell 2000 1,130.84 -0.84% VIX 15.72 +3.29% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4610 +0.04% USD/JPY 106.3900 -1.58%
Thursday, April 28, 2016
US 1Q GDP 0.5%; Get Used To It
The US economy - which, according to official sources, grew by a non-robust 0.5% in the first quarter - is just fine... if you believe in stability.
Unfortunately for the the huckster on Wall Street, the liars in Washington, and the genii at the Fed, low or no growth is bad.
Well, screw them. And, get used to it. Simply just don't take any increase in price for anything, especially taxes or other government fees. In fact, smart people should be looking to avoid paying at all.
That's enough for today. Tomorrow will be the same.
Wall Street. Ugh!
S&P 500: 2,075.81, -19.34 (0.92%)
Dow: 17,830.76, -210.79 (1.17%)
NASDAQ: 4,805.29, -57.85 (1.19%)
Crude Oil 45.79 -0.52% Gold 1,268.20 +0.14% EUR/USD 1.1352 -0.01% 10-Yr Bond 1.84 -1.18% Corn 390.50 +1.49% Copper 2.23 -0.25% Silver 17.64 +0.30% Natural Gas 2.06 -0.91% Russell 2000 1,140.40 -1.19% VIX 15.22 +10.53% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4608 +0.03% USD/JPY 108.1815 +0.08%
Unfortunately for the the huckster on Wall Street, the liars in Washington, and the genii at the Fed, low or no growth is bad.
Well, screw them. And, get used to it. Simply just don't take any increase in price for anything, especially taxes or other government fees. In fact, smart people should be looking to avoid paying at all.
That's enough for today. Tomorrow will be the same.
Wall Street. Ugh!
S&P 500: 2,075.81, -19.34 (0.92%)
Dow: 17,830.76, -210.79 (1.17%)
NASDAQ: 4,805.29, -57.85 (1.19%)
Crude Oil 45.79 -0.52% Gold 1,268.20 +0.14% EUR/USD 1.1352 -0.01% 10-Yr Bond 1.84 -1.18% Corn 390.50 +1.49% Copper 2.23 -0.25% Silver 17.64 +0.30% Natural Gas 2.06 -0.91% Russell 2000 1,140.40 -1.19% VIX 15.22 +10.53% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4608 +0.03% USD/JPY 108.1815 +0.08%
Wednesday, April 27, 2016
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged; Market Loves When Doves Fly
With only one member of the FOMC voting to raise rates (Ester George), the Fed decided to keep the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent.
The 9-1 vote was the expected result, being that conditions haven't changed much in the US economy since the last policy meeting in March. If anything, economic conditions have deteriorated, though the FOMC statement is chock-full of ambiguity and stocked with trap doors for easy escape should their policy need to change in any manner.
To wit:
The Fed is boxed in, unable to raise rates, and likely unwilling, given the most recent reaction to any rate hike: a massive selling spree of equities.
All the Fed can do right now is keep the policy somewhat coherent and hope the stock market continues to climb, despite all indications that the economy is very, very weak.
Tomorrow, prior to the market open, the initial estimate of first quarter GDP will be released, and, a week and a day later, non-farm payroll data for April will be announced. There's a solid chance that both numbers will be anemic, with GDP settling in a range somewhere between 0.5% and 1.0% and April jobs coming in somewhere south of 200,000.
But, according to the Fed, everything is simply wonderful. Carry on and don't fret. The next FOMC policy meeting isn't until June 14-15, so, there's a month-and-a-half before we all go through the dumbest guessing game ever... again. With such a short span between now and a potential rate increase, the odds of that happening are about the same as the federal funds rate, or, less than a one percent chance.
Thanks, Janet!
S&P 500: 2,095.15, +3.45 (0.16%)
Dow: 18,041.55, +51.23 (0.28%)
NASDAQ: 4,863.14, -25.14 (0.51%)
Crude Oil 45.31 +2.88% Gold 1,247.30 +0.31% EUR/USD 1.1323 +0.21% 10-Yr Bond 1.86 -3.68% Corn 384.25 -0.77% Copper 2.23 -0.67% Silver 17.25 +0.79% Natural Gas 2.15 -0.51% Russell 2000 1,154.15 +0.30% VIX 13.77 -1.36% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4542 -0.22% USD/JPY 111.4850 +0.18%
The 9-1 vote was the expected result, being that conditions haven't changed much in the US economy since the last policy meeting in March. If anything, economic conditions have deteriorated, though the FOMC statement is chock-full of ambiguity and stocked with trap doors for easy escape should their policy need to change in any manner.
To wit:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that labor market conditions have improved further even as growth in economic activity appears to have slowed. Growth in household spending has moderated, although households' real income has risen at a solid rate and consumer sentiment remains high. Since the beginning of the year, the housing sector has improved further but business fixed investment and net exports have been soft.
The Fed is boxed in, unable to raise rates, and likely unwilling, given the most recent reaction to any rate hike: a massive selling spree of equities.
All the Fed can do right now is keep the policy somewhat coherent and hope the stock market continues to climb, despite all indications that the economy is very, very weak.
Tomorrow, prior to the market open, the initial estimate of first quarter GDP will be released, and, a week and a day later, non-farm payroll data for April will be announced. There's a solid chance that both numbers will be anemic, with GDP settling in a range somewhere between 0.5% and 1.0% and April jobs coming in somewhere south of 200,000.
But, according to the Fed, everything is simply wonderful. Carry on and don't fret. The next FOMC policy meeting isn't until June 14-15, so, there's a month-and-a-half before we all go through the dumbest guessing game ever... again. With such a short span between now and a potential rate increase, the odds of that happening are about the same as the federal funds rate, or, less than a one percent chance.
Thanks, Janet!
S&P 500: 2,095.15, +3.45 (0.16%)
Dow: 18,041.55, +51.23 (0.28%)
NASDAQ: 4,863.14, -25.14 (0.51%)
Crude Oil 45.31 +2.88% Gold 1,247.30 +0.31% EUR/USD 1.1323 +0.21% 10-Yr Bond 1.86 -3.68% Corn 384.25 -0.77% Copper 2.23 -0.67% Silver 17.25 +0.79% Natural Gas 2.15 -0.51% Russell 2000 1,154.15 +0.30% VIX 13.77 -1.36% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4542 -0.22% USD/JPY 111.4850 +0.18%
Labels:
Fed,
federal funds rate,
FOMC,
GDP,
interest rates,
non-farm payroll
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Stocks Stall Ahead Of FOMC; Apple Bytes
Not much in the way of movement happened with stocks as participants were more than willing to wait for tomorrow's non-event from the FOMC, in which the Fed governors are likely to double-down on their dovish rate policy, owing either to market pressures or the near-undeniability that the global economy is defunct without further central bank stimulus.
It is what the banker mobs have wrought: an economy devoid of social or economic mobility, except to the downside, as government and ultra-national corporations crowds out any meaningful enterprise.
After hours, Apple (AAPL) reported earnings for the first quarter, missing on both the top and bottom line, adding more credence to the global slowdown meme. Shares were trading more than seven percent lower in the after-hours.
At 2:00 pm EDT, the FOMC will issue their rate policy decision, keeping the federal funds rate at 0.25-0.50%, which might produce some happiness for the Wall Streeters, however, considering the paucity of positive earnings results this quarter and the anticipation of an ugly first quarter GDP estimate on Thursday (8:30 am), there may be few players prepared to rally.
In all, it's a messy situation which cannot be solved by conventional means at this point, that point being one in which "emergency" measures have been stretched out to seven years. The global economy is beyond the scope of the central bankers' control, a condition that is probably, in the long run, for the best.
Tuesday's Tiptoe:
S&P 500: 2,091.70, +3.91 (0.19%)
Dow: 17,990.32, +13.08 (0.07%)
NASDAQ: 4,888.31, -7.48 (0.15%)
Crude Oil 44.04 +3.28% Gold 1,245.20 +0.40% EUR/USD 1.1301 +0.26% 10-Yr Bond 1.93 +1.52% Corn 385.00 +0.85% Copper 2.25 -0.07% Silver 17.16 +0.89% Natural Gas 2.16 -1.01% Russell 2000 1,150.73 +1.11% VIX 13.96 -0.85% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4582 +0.68% USD/JPY 111.3150 +0.07%
It is what the banker mobs have wrought: an economy devoid of social or economic mobility, except to the downside, as government and ultra-national corporations crowds out any meaningful enterprise.
After hours, Apple (AAPL) reported earnings for the first quarter, missing on both the top and bottom line, adding more credence to the global slowdown meme. Shares were trading more than seven percent lower in the after-hours.
At 2:00 pm EDT, the FOMC will issue their rate policy decision, keeping the federal funds rate at 0.25-0.50%, which might produce some happiness for the Wall Streeters, however, considering the paucity of positive earnings results this quarter and the anticipation of an ugly first quarter GDP estimate on Thursday (8:30 am), there may be few players prepared to rally.
In all, it's a messy situation which cannot be solved by conventional means at this point, that point being one in which "emergency" measures have been stretched out to seven years. The global economy is beyond the scope of the central bankers' control, a condition that is probably, in the long run, for the best.
Tuesday's Tiptoe:
S&P 500: 2,091.70, +3.91 (0.19%)
Dow: 17,990.32, +13.08 (0.07%)
NASDAQ: 4,888.31, -7.48 (0.15%)
Crude Oil 44.04 +3.28% Gold 1,245.20 +0.40% EUR/USD 1.1301 +0.26% 10-Yr Bond 1.93 +1.52% Corn 385.00 +0.85% Copper 2.25 -0.07% Silver 17.16 +0.89% Natural Gas 2.16 -1.01% Russell 2000 1,150.73 +1.11% VIX 13.96 -0.85% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4582 +0.68% USD/JPY 111.3150 +0.07%
Monday, April 25, 2016
Dull Start As New Home Sales Fall For Third Straight Month
Wall Street wasn't particularly troubled over the fact that new home sales fell for the third month in a row, and by the end of the day, it hardly mattered, as stocks staged a mild comeback from opening losses.
The drop of 1.5% (511,000 annualized, seasonally adjusted) was led by a huge, 23.6% plunge in the West, according to the commerce department. The median home price also fell, to 288,000, a level many are finding difficult to justify.
For instance, even at today's low rates, a $250,000, 30-year mortgage runs $1,088 per month, with interest paid over the life of the loan of $141,686, making the total amount paid a stunning $391,686. With more than half the wage-earners in the United States making less than $30,000 per year, that's a price too high to bear, but, that's what the Fed has thrust upon would-be homebuyers in their quest to boost asset prices and inflation.
Many new-home buyers of today will find themselves stuck - like many home owners during the sub=prime bust - if interest rates rise over the coming years. Not only will these buyers be burdened by an enormous debt, their properties would become unsalable, due to a glut on the market and higher carrying costs. That same $250,000 mortgage, at, say 5%, would jump to $1,342, making the now-used home even less affordable and the current residents trapped in an underwater condition.
It's actually surprising that anybody is actually building and buying new homes. The prices are at astronomical levels. The median home price may actually have peaked a few months ago, hitting a record 317,000 in November, 2015, setting the stage for another round of hand-wringing by banks and homeowners alike when the next recession hits, something for which the US economy is now overdue. It's been eight years since the last one and the Fed has not convinced anyone that it has finally vanquished the business cycle; they've only managed to delay the inevitable.
Speaking of the Fed, the FOMC begins a two-day meeting at which they will do nothing other than remind the world that they are in control of everything and that the US economy is still not to their liking, meaning another rate hike is still months away, if at all. Normalizing rates may prove to be the undoing of central banking, because it will absolutely destroy many leveraged, hedged market constituents.
Monday's Mangled Mess:
S&P 500: 2,087.79, -3.79 (0.18%)
Dow: 17,977.24, -26.51 (0.15%)
NASDAQ: 4,895.79, -10.44 (0.21%)
Crude Oil 42.86 -1.99% Gold 1,239.10 +0.74% EUR/USD 1.1269 +0.42% 10-Yr Bond 1.90 +0.74% Corn 384.50 +2.40% Copper 2.25 -0.60% Silver 16.99 +0.53% Natural Gas 2.19 -3.22% Russell 2000 1,138.09 -0.75% VIX 14.08 +6.51% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4483 +0.16% USD/JPY 111.1950 -0.56%
The drop of 1.5% (511,000 annualized, seasonally adjusted) was led by a huge, 23.6% plunge in the West, according to the commerce department. The median home price also fell, to 288,000, a level many are finding difficult to justify.
For instance, even at today's low rates, a $250,000, 30-year mortgage runs $1,088 per month, with interest paid over the life of the loan of $141,686, making the total amount paid a stunning $391,686. With more than half the wage-earners in the United States making less than $30,000 per year, that's a price too high to bear, but, that's what the Fed has thrust upon would-be homebuyers in their quest to boost asset prices and inflation.
Many new-home buyers of today will find themselves stuck - like many home owners during the sub=prime bust - if interest rates rise over the coming years. Not only will these buyers be burdened by an enormous debt, their properties would become unsalable, due to a glut on the market and higher carrying costs. That same $250,000 mortgage, at, say 5%, would jump to $1,342, making the now-used home even less affordable and the current residents trapped in an underwater condition.
It's actually surprising that anybody is actually building and buying new homes. The prices are at astronomical levels. The median home price may actually have peaked a few months ago, hitting a record 317,000 in November, 2015, setting the stage for another round of hand-wringing by banks and homeowners alike when the next recession hits, something for which the US economy is now overdue. It's been eight years since the last one and the Fed has not convinced anyone that it has finally vanquished the business cycle; they've only managed to delay the inevitable.
Speaking of the Fed, the FOMC begins a two-day meeting at which they will do nothing other than remind the world that they are in control of everything and that the US economy is still not to their liking, meaning another rate hike is still months away, if at all. Normalizing rates may prove to be the undoing of central banking, because it will absolutely destroy many leveraged, hedged market constituents.
Monday's Mangled Mess:
S&P 500: 2,087.79, -3.79 (0.18%)
Dow: 17,977.24, -26.51 (0.15%)
NASDAQ: 4,895.79, -10.44 (0.21%)
Crude Oil 42.86 -1.99% Gold 1,239.10 +0.74% EUR/USD 1.1269 +0.42% 10-Yr Bond 1.90 +0.74% Corn 384.50 +2.40% Copper 2.25 -0.60% Silver 16.99 +0.53% Natural Gas 2.19 -3.22% Russell 2000 1,138.09 -0.75% VIX 14.08 +6.51% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4483 +0.16% USD/JPY 111.1950 -0.56%
Sunday, April 24, 2016
Stocks Finish Week In Volatile, Split Fashion; FOMC, BOJ To Drive Markets Last Week Of April
Nothing monumental was happening in the markets on Friday, but the mood was decidedly risk-averse heading into the weekend. The week as a whole mirrored Friday, with the Dow and S&P showing small gains while the NASDAQ took on water.
For the week:
DOW: +106.29 (0.59%)
S&P 500: +10.85 (0.52%)
NASDAQ: -31.99 (0.65%)
The week was among the lesser moves of the year, though it became apparent that the markets were testing the upper limits of their recent range. While the Dow managed to finish just above the 18,000 mark, the S&P remained at a critical inflection point at 2091-2092, almost by magic. Moving above the 2100 mark - which the SPX accomplished mid-week - may prove to be short-lived if investors take recent earnings weakness seriously, though that position is still debatable, considering the virtually unlimited power of the Fed and associated central banks in Japan (BOJ) and Europe (ECB) to print, cajole and promote inflationary, free-money policies.
Central banks cannot, however, remain the only vital force in the markets forever. More and more voices are beginning to openly question the intelligence of placing blind faith in the currency-controllers and are advising that a return to "normalcy" is something the Fed cannot and probably will not approach in the near term. Among them David Stockman, Jeff Gundlach, Bill Gross have been the latest to scoff at the Fed's financially-repressive control policies.
Notwithstanding the naysayers, the Fed, BOJ and ECB continue to stay the course. While Mario Draghi of the ECB didn't move markets one iota with his stand pat position this week, the Fed will likely accomplish little with their FOMC meeting this week (Tuesday and Wednesday), though the BOJ is considering lowering its key interest rate further into the red. The BOJ's next two-day policy review ends on April 28 (Thursday).
The coming week will be focused on central bank nothingness rather than fundamentals, which is what the complainers have been howling about for some time.
Expect their voices to become more numerous and louder if the global economy continues to sputter and stall.
FRIDAY'S FUMBLING:
S&P 500: 2,091.58, +0.10 (0.00%)
Dow: 18,003.75, +21.23 (0.12%)
NASDAQ: 4,906.23, -39.66 (0.80%)
Crude Oil 43.71 +1.23% Gold 1,234.90 -1.23% EUR/USD 1.1228 -0.55% 10-Yr Bond 1.89 +0.96% Corn 378.25 -2.95% Copper 2.27 +0.93% Silver 16.97 -0.73% Natural Gas 2.26 +2.13% Russell 2000 1,144.24 +0.75% VIX 13.34 -4.37% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4413 +0.63% USD/JPY 111.6330 +2.02%
For the week:
DOW: +106.29 (0.59%)
S&P 500: +10.85 (0.52%)
NASDAQ: -31.99 (0.65%)
The week was among the lesser moves of the year, though it became apparent that the markets were testing the upper limits of their recent range. While the Dow managed to finish just above the 18,000 mark, the S&P remained at a critical inflection point at 2091-2092, almost by magic. Moving above the 2100 mark - which the SPX accomplished mid-week - may prove to be short-lived if investors take recent earnings weakness seriously, though that position is still debatable, considering the virtually unlimited power of the Fed and associated central banks in Japan (BOJ) and Europe (ECB) to print, cajole and promote inflationary, free-money policies.
Central banks cannot, however, remain the only vital force in the markets forever. More and more voices are beginning to openly question the intelligence of placing blind faith in the currency-controllers and are advising that a return to "normalcy" is something the Fed cannot and probably will not approach in the near term. Among them David Stockman, Jeff Gundlach, Bill Gross have been the latest to scoff at the Fed's financially-repressive control policies.
Notwithstanding the naysayers, the Fed, BOJ and ECB continue to stay the course. While Mario Draghi of the ECB didn't move markets one iota with his stand pat position this week, the Fed will likely accomplish little with their FOMC meeting this week (Tuesday and Wednesday), though the BOJ is considering lowering its key interest rate further into the red. The BOJ's next two-day policy review ends on April 28 (Thursday).
The coming week will be focused on central bank nothingness rather than fundamentals, which is what the complainers have been howling about for some time.
Expect their voices to become more numerous and louder if the global economy continues to sputter and stall.
FRIDAY'S FUMBLING:
S&P 500: 2,091.58, +0.10 (0.00%)
Dow: 18,003.75, +21.23 (0.12%)
NASDAQ: 4,906.23, -39.66 (0.80%)
Crude Oil 43.71 +1.23% Gold 1,234.90 -1.23% EUR/USD 1.1228 -0.55% 10-Yr Bond 1.89 +0.96% Corn 378.25 -2.95% Copper 2.27 +0.93% Silver 16.97 -0.73% Natural Gas 2.26 +2.13% Russell 2000 1,144.24 +0.75% VIX 13.34 -4.37% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4413 +0.63% USD/JPY 111.6330 +2.02%
Thursday, April 21, 2016
With Central Banks Losing Control, Markets Begin Wild Gyrations
In the aftermath of the Deustche Bank revelations that they and other banking concerns engaged in explicit manipulation of gold and silver prices and markets (assuredly, among others), and in anticipation of various central bank announcements, proclamations and policy nonsense, as of today, markets seem to have become somewhat disjointed and erratic.
Witness the madness in precious metals that began in earnest with the opening of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) daily gold fix priced in yuan, the price of gold shot up $20 when ECB President Mario Draghi left European markets with no new monetary ammunition, and then retreated without reason, ostensibly the controllers in the West reacting to the challenge having been thrown down by the Chinese.
It was a somewhat similar condition in the silver price, which whipped up to $17.65 in early morning trading, only to be slammed down moments later on the NYMEX, below $17. The prices of both gold and silver recovered, but the message is clear: the London gold fixers and those in China are at odds over what should be the true price of precious metals.

There is a solution to this, and that would be to allow markets to work, by outlawing naked shorting, bid stuffing on the CME, high frequency trading and other tools of manipulation. Letting the market decide on the price would be a satisfactory conclusion to what is rapidly turning into an economic war zone, but it is also quite possible the opposing parties could begin using actual guns, bullets, warships and bombs to settle their differences. It is evident that the long-established edge of US monetary hegemony, via the dollar as reserve currency, is coming to an end, and with that, the era of unbacked, unsound money (fiat).
The easiest and most prudent advice to investors at this juncture would be to buy gold - and more importantly silver, since it has been so viciously violated by the bankers over the years - as quickly as possible, and in as much quantity as one can reasonably afford.
US stocks also experienced something of a double dip, once in the early trading and again just before and after noon, which ended up being the move of the day, as the Dow suffered its worst day in three weeks, with the major indices backing off from recent highs, promoted via vapid and obfuscated corporate earnings reports. While the media has been largely hushed over first quarter earnings, the truth of the matter is that most companies are not keeping up with projections, though they are beating lowered expectations. Many companies are reporting positive earnings, no doubt, but they are also lower than what they reported in the year-ago period. Once again, gains in stock prices can generally be attributed to easy monetary policy, cartel-like trading (the same big banks that brought us the last financial crash in 2008-09), and an astounding amount of group-think, wherein nobody bothers with fundamental analysis, but relies more on the whims of the moment, otherwise known as momentum trading.
Get ready for more volatility, as more and more students of the markets realize just how distorted the policies of the various powerful central banks have been.
Today's Closing Numbers:
S&P 500: 2,091.48, -10.92 (0.52%)
Dow: 17,982.52, -113.75 (0.63%)
NASDAQ: 4,945.89, -2.24 (0.05%)
Crude Oil 43.43 -1.70% Gold 1,250.10 -0.02% EUR/USD 1.1289 0.00% 10-Yr Bond 1.87 +0.86% Corn 394.00 +1.09% Copper 2.25 +0.07% Silver 17.03 -0.35% Natural Gas 2.06 -0.43% Russell 2000 1,135.77 -0.57% VIX 13.95 +5.05% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4317 -0.04% USD/JPY 109.4370 +0.02%
Witness the madness in precious metals that began in earnest with the opening of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) daily gold fix priced in yuan, the price of gold shot up $20 when ECB President Mario Draghi left European markets with no new monetary ammunition, and then retreated without reason, ostensibly the controllers in the West reacting to the challenge having been thrown down by the Chinese.
It was a somewhat similar condition in the silver price, which whipped up to $17.65 in early morning trading, only to be slammed down moments later on the NYMEX, below $17. The prices of both gold and silver recovered, but the message is clear: the London gold fixers and those in China are at odds over what should be the true price of precious metals.
There is a solution to this, and that would be to allow markets to work, by outlawing naked shorting, bid stuffing on the CME, high frequency trading and other tools of manipulation. Letting the market decide on the price would be a satisfactory conclusion to what is rapidly turning into an economic war zone, but it is also quite possible the opposing parties could begin using actual guns, bullets, warships and bombs to settle their differences. It is evident that the long-established edge of US monetary hegemony, via the dollar as reserve currency, is coming to an end, and with that, the era of unbacked, unsound money (fiat).
The easiest and most prudent advice to investors at this juncture would be to buy gold - and more importantly silver, since it has been so viciously violated by the bankers over the years - as quickly as possible, and in as much quantity as one can reasonably afford.
US stocks also experienced something of a double dip, once in the early trading and again just before and after noon, which ended up being the move of the day, as the Dow suffered its worst day in three weeks, with the major indices backing off from recent highs, promoted via vapid and obfuscated corporate earnings reports. While the media has been largely hushed over first quarter earnings, the truth of the matter is that most companies are not keeping up with projections, though they are beating lowered expectations. Many companies are reporting positive earnings, no doubt, but they are also lower than what they reported in the year-ago period. Once again, gains in stock prices can generally be attributed to easy monetary policy, cartel-like trading (the same big banks that brought us the last financial crash in 2008-09), and an astounding amount of group-think, wherein nobody bothers with fundamental analysis, but relies more on the whims of the moment, otherwise known as momentum trading.
Get ready for more volatility, as more and more students of the markets realize just how distorted the policies of the various powerful central banks have been.
Today's Closing Numbers:
S&P 500: 2,091.48, -10.92 (0.52%)
Dow: 17,982.52, -113.75 (0.63%)
NASDAQ: 4,945.89, -2.24 (0.05%)
Crude Oil 43.43 -1.70% Gold 1,250.10 -0.02% EUR/USD 1.1289 0.00% 10-Yr Bond 1.87 +0.86% Corn 394.00 +1.09% Copper 2.25 +0.07% Silver 17.03 -0.35% Natural Gas 2.06 -0.43% Russell 2000 1,135.77 -0.57% VIX 13.95 +5.05% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4317 -0.04% USD/JPY 109.4370 +0.02%
Labels:
China,
ECB,
gold,
gold fix,
London,
Mario Draghi,
momentum,
monetary policy,
SGE,
Shanghai Gold Exchange,
silver
Wednesday, April 20, 2016
Stocks Continue Relentless Drive Toward New Highs; Mass Hysteria Cited
It's still April, so there's still a possibility that the ongoing rise in stock prices is the result of a wickedly good April Fool's prank. There may be better explanations for the phenomena, but fundamental valuations surely isn't one of them.
With today's close, the Dow Industrials crept back to within a mere 250 points intraday of all-time highs made in May of 2015, which begs the question, "what took it so long?"

Since the second half of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016 wasn't a recession, nor were there any earth-shattering geopolitical events which could have precluded an incessant rise to new all-time highs, those with more reason than most will just consider the long stalled out "recovery" something of a market hiccup, as opposed to a burp, or something stinky coming from somewhere else on the body of finance.
Surely, the financial world is still functioning at full tilt, with greater fools born into the market without interruption. The manic buying of shares representing companies whose earnings are smaller than last year's suggests a new - or newer - paradigm shift, from simple speculation to outright gambling, naturally, with other people's money, mind you.
Strangely enough, the stocks which have led the charge in the past seven trading days have been banks. The largest, including Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC), all reported last week and were less-than-encouraging, typically with marginal beats on lowered EPS expectations, and lower revenue overall, especially in their trading units.
Not to worry, stocks fell off their highs late in the day, ending with small gains. After all, since today is 4/20, there's incentive to chill out and eat Cheetos.
Wad up, Mon?
S&P 500: 2,102.40, +1.60 (0.08%)
Dow: 18,096.27, +42.67 (0.24%)
NASDAQ: 4,948.13, +7.80 (0.16%)
Crude Oil 43.92 +3.41% Gold 1,244.80 -0.76% EUR/USD 1.1299 -0.50% 10-Yr Bond 1.8540 +3.98% Corn 396.50 +1.80% Copper 2.23 +0.49% Silver 16.99 +0.08% Natural Gas 2.07 -0.81% Russell 2000 1,142.82 +0.23% VIX 13.29 +0.38% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4339 -0.36% USD/JPY 109.77 +0.44%
With today's close, the Dow Industrials crept back to within a mere 250 points intraday of all-time highs made in May of 2015, which begs the question, "what took it so long?"
Since the second half of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016 wasn't a recession, nor were there any earth-shattering geopolitical events which could have precluded an incessant rise to new all-time highs, those with more reason than most will just consider the long stalled out "recovery" something of a market hiccup, as opposed to a burp, or something stinky coming from somewhere else on the body of finance.
Surely, the financial world is still functioning at full tilt, with greater fools born into the market without interruption. The manic buying of shares representing companies whose earnings are smaller than last year's suggests a new - or newer - paradigm shift, from simple speculation to outright gambling, naturally, with other people's money, mind you.
Strangely enough, the stocks which have led the charge in the past seven trading days have been banks. The largest, including Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC), all reported last week and were less-than-encouraging, typically with marginal beats on lowered EPS expectations, and lower revenue overall, especially in their trading units.
Not to worry, stocks fell off their highs late in the day, ending with small gains. After all, since today is 4/20, there's incentive to chill out and eat Cheetos.
Wad up, Mon?
S&P 500: 2,102.40, +1.60 (0.08%)
Dow: 18,096.27, +42.67 (0.24%)
NASDAQ: 4,948.13, +7.80 (0.16%)
Crude Oil 43.92 +3.41% Gold 1,244.80 -0.76% EUR/USD 1.1299 -0.50% 10-Yr Bond 1.8540 +3.98% Corn 396.50 +1.80% Copper 2.23 +0.49% Silver 16.99 +0.08% Natural Gas 2.07 -0.81% Russell 2000 1,142.82 +0.23% VIX 13.29 +0.38% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4339 -0.36% USD/JPY 109.77 +0.44%
Labels:
4/20,
all-time highs,
BAC,
Bank of America,
JP Morgan Chase,
JPM
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